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Rocco Baldelli has made mention of preferring to have a long reliever in the bullpen, someone to eat up bulk innings to save the rest of the arms. Is such a role possible for Opening Day? Who are the candidates? Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have played with using a long reliever in the bullpen at times in the last few years and found that the role is inconsistent and sometimes not worth the trouble. In 2021, Randy Dobnak made the team as a long reliever as the team’s assumed sixth starter. The downside became evident almost immediately. When starters exited in a close game, it made more sense to go to a high-leverage reliever to keep the game intact. The Twins almost never found themselves having a sizable lead or deficit when the starter exited. Dobnak would go upwards of a week without throwing a single pitch, and he looked like that was very much the case when he did finally get some action. It can be argued that we learned that a long reliever role can’t be filled by a legitimate starting pitching option, at least not if you want them to develop or be ready to fill in if a member of the rotation goes down. This leaves the role to such a specific type of player that it becomes kind of hard to believe the Twins would actually choose to dedicate a roster spot to such a role. That being said, Rocco Baldelli continues to hint that he would prefer to go this route, so it’s worthwhile to explore some options on who could fill such a role. Cole Sands Sands is already walking the starter/reliever tightrope. The Twins were clear they weren’t planning on anyone making a formal switch from starting to relieving this spring, but Sands was listed as the closest arm to doing so. Sands already holds a 40-man roster spot and has options remaining, making him a prime candidate to serve as a long man on Opening Day. He also made spot appearances in this role in 2022 on occasion. Sands is far from the next man up in the rotation, and for this reason, may serve this role better than someone like Bailey Ober who needs to be ready to fill a traditional starter’s role on a moment’s notice. Sands could use the opportunity to acclimate himself to a bullpen job, which seems like an eventual certainty for his career. He should still be able to provide 3+ innings of work in a pinch as well, which makes him a decent candidate. Randy Dobnak While a long shot, it could once again be Dobnak to fill a long relief role. At this point, he’s buried in the rotational depth chart. He finally appears to be healthy, and while his unbelievable numbers in his debut are unlikely to be repeated, Dobnak could be serviceable and durable, making him a solid fit. The issue of course is Dobnak’s lack of a 40-man spot after being outrighted off the 40-man roster this winter. The Twins can easily make space if they feel he’s the best man for the job. Though the money they committed to Dobnak is inconsequential, they do owe him a few million in the next few years. If he’s in a good place health-wise, the Twins could very well decide to get their money’s worth and see if Dobnak can make a resurgence in a different role. He’s been used more or less as a starter so far this spring, meaning he should be physically capable of filling bulk innings if his previously ailing finger is right. José De León The deepest of sleepers, De León is a former top prospect that was discussed as part of a return for Brian Dozier back when he was in the Dodgers system. Injuries have derailed a once-promising career, but he’s still fighting for a roster spot at 30 years old. De León came out on Sunday and showed that he still had plenty left in the tank, allowing two hits and one run in three spring innings and striking out six. De León may not have a 40-man spot or options, but the right-hander is in a perfect situation with the Twins able to open a spot on the 40-man roster with ease. Rather than putting one of their young arms in an inconsistent role, the Twins could opt for adding a veteran to fill this job while being prepared to cut bait if it goes poorly. Keep an eye on De León’s performance in the World Baseball Classic in the coming weeks as well, as he’ll be departing to pitch for Puerto Rico this week. There are other candidates that could take a long relief role and do reasonably well, but it’s likely the Twins avoid using young prospects such as Josh Winder or Simeon Woods Richardson because of the inconsistency that comes along with the job. Instead expect the Twins to look towards former starters turned relievers or more of the veteran expendable types to fill the role, if the Twins choose to go this route at all. Are there any candidates you’d like to see take the long reliever role? Should the Twins bother using a long reliever at all? Let us know below! View full article

There's a good chance that at least one of these players will find time on the Twins next season; read about what they can bring to the table. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Here we are in mid-December. The Rule 5 draft has passed, and reports over the past week have shown the the Twins have made some minor-league signings. Here are some notes on those who have signed to this point, at least the ones that we have heard. No one gets overly excited about minor-league signings, but as we have seen in recent years, injuries and Covid have forced the Twins to play a lot of players. So these are not meaningless signings. C-Jair Camargo The one returning player to re-sign with the Twins. Camargo came to the organization in the Kenta Maeda/Brusdar Graterol trade before the 2020 season. Camargo split his season between Cedar Rapids and Wichita. He is a good athlete with a strong arm. He doesn't like to walk, and he has some swing-and-miss, but he has shown a lot of power 1B/DH-Tyler White Tyler White's name may ring a tiny bell; the first baseman collected over 800 plate appearances for the Houston Astros between 2016 and 2019, earning a World Series ring while slashing .241/.319/.420. White’s MLB career peaked with an excellent 2018 campaign where he collected 1.7 fWAR over 66 games, buoying his career total of 1.2. After a trade to the Dodgers in 2019, the Western Carolina University product failed to recapture his previous magic, bouncing between the KBO and three minor league systems in his search for a home. The 32-year-old White is your prototypical minor league free agent, but he did own a .900 OPS with Buffalo in 2021, perhaps hinting that his best baseball is not yet gone. RHP-José De León Finally, The Twins have acquired José De León. A crucial part of the Great Brian Dozier Trade Talks of 2016, De León is now, unfortunately, the tale of a pitching prospect gone awry. De León owns 48 MLB innings scattered across five seasons; his 18 1/3 frames in 2021 represent his highest single-season total. The culprit? Injuries. The Southern University product often endures extended bouts without time on the mound, never coming close to hitting his career high in innings set between A+ and AA in 2015 (114 ⅓.) De León’s stuff is good, so if he remains on the mound, he could boost a pitching staff always needing an extra jolt. RHP-Carlos Luna The Panamian native, Carlos Luna, crosses the border, trekking from Milwaukee’s system to Minnesota’s. Luna joined the Brewers as a 17-year-old, pitching deep in the recesses of Rookie Ball in 2014 and 2015 before missing all of 2016 and 2017 with (presumably) an injury. The 26-year-old stayed knocking on the door, putting up adequate numbers just shy of worthy of a cup of coffee; he pitched 109 1/3 innings at AA last season. Luna’s baseball peak occurred when he netted the final 12 outs of a combined no-hitter in 2021. RHP-Patrick Murphy A member of the Blue Jays and Nationals organizations, Patrick Murphy tossed 39 2/3 middling innings in the majors—mostly in 2021—and looks to start fresh with the Twins. Murphy owns a 96 MPH fastball, which renders any more analysis unnecessary. It’s unlikely that Murphy will suddenly learn command, but minor-league deals are pure upside moves by nature, so if he does, then the Twins can reap the rewards of an effective multi-inning reliever. Murphy punched out 26.1% of batters at AAA last season. View full article

Ever since first stepping into their roles leading the Minnesota Twins baseball operations department, both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have been talking about the big picture. So how would keeping Brian Dozier, whose value is at a high point, align with the future-focused approach that this regime has espoused?In their early days on the job, the new CBO and GM were clear about their intentions to build a foundation for sustainable success, acknowledging that it might be a gradual process. Falvey laid out his vision for a "data-driven" collaboration. Levine spoke of making "thoughtful decisions that are designed for the future of this organization." On the surface, trading Dozier – a veteran star in his prime, who is highly unlikely to play on a championship-caliber team here during the two remaining years on his contract – would seem to be the very definition of such a move. But as we discussed late last week, Minnesota's front office has been stonewalled in its efforts to extract ample value for Dozier. Clearly, the newly installed executive duo entered this offseason with a specific valuation of Dozier, unshaded by familiarity with him as a person or his intangible value to the franchise. Clearly, suitors have been unwilling to meet it, for reasons outlined in last week's post. In the comments section for that article, some readers opined that the Twins should simply lower their sights and take what they can get for Dozier, which at this point appears to be Jose De Leon and not much else. It's a reasoned take because, in the big-picture view, De Leon has a much better chance of contributing to a contender in two years and beyond. But there's another big picture to look at, framed within Target Field and its many offices and operations. Beneath the new leadership structure, there are many returning employees, including the players on the roster. They are forming their own opinions of Falvey and Levine, who are both assuming top decision-making roles for the first time. Respect is earned, not given, and in the eyes of longtime Twins people who were loyal to Terry Ryan, these relatively inexperienced successors have big shoes to fill. How is it going to look if their first major trade involves shipping out the team's best player for a return that blatantly falls well short of expectations? How does it look to the guys in the clubhouse if their exemplary leader, viewed as a linchpin in efforts to rebound and return to contention, is removed and replaced by a rookie with no record of big-league success? How will the "Screw 2017, we'll do whatever it takes to get better in three years" approach be received by Paul Molitor as a lame duck manager who desperately needs to improve, in short order, to keep his job? And how much are these perceptions worsened if De Leon's shoulder flares up in the spring, or his initial struggles carry over to his first full season, or he ends up in the bullpen? If the Twins aren't getting back any additional pieces, there's no alternative opportunity to recoup value. Falvey knows about the importance of bolstering your odds. He comes from an organization that benefitted greatly from receiving quantity in these blockbusters. When the Indians traded CC Sabathia to the Brewers back in 2008, it wasn't headliner Matt LaPorta who ended up achieving star status but rather the "player to be named later" rounding out the package, who turned out to be Michael Brantley. When Cleveland traded Cliff Lee to Philadelphia a year later, four prospects of similar standing came back but only one truly panned out: Carlos Carrasco, who was a staple in their division-winning 2016 rotation. Of course, playing the odds works both ways. Any realist needs to acknowledge that the odds are very much against Minnesota making a dramatic jump and actually competing for a postseason spot in 2017. In the scope of long-term rebuilding, keeping Dozier is counterproductive in two important ways: it deprives the system of a top-tier talent in De Leon, with a lesser return likely if they make a deal down the line, and it forces Jorge Polanco to keep playing out of position at shortstop. Falvey is a calculating and analytical guy who earned a degree in economics. With the Indians, he learned under some of the game's most revered negotiators and evaluators. Same goes for Levine, who served as Jon Daniels' right-hand man in Texas. If Ryan were still in charge, I could see a stronger case for the Twins irrationally overvaluing their own asset. Such instances were not uncommon during his tenure. But the individuals charged with this Dozier decision are coming into the situation with clear eyes, and no inherent illusions about the current state of the organization. Tying this scenario to Falvey's area of speciality, there is an oft-cited concept in economics called opportunity cost. It is defined as "the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen," or more simply, the benefits that you give up by choosing one option over the other. In our present situation, the Twins are evidently prepared to leave a major prize on the table, as they've judged the positives of holding their ground and hanging onto Dozier to outweigh the value of acquiring De Leon. You can argue with the merits of their conclusion, but I don't think you can deny it's a thoughtful decision that meshes with a data-driven mindset. Click here to view the article

Are the Twins and Dodgers moving on from Brian Dozier trade talks? It's beginning to look that way. Let's break down the latest developments and potential ramifications.Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the two sides had reached an impasse in their negotiations with "no momentum toward deal." That's an ominous sign at this late stage of the offseason and Rosenthal later wrote that the Dodgers were "back to square one in their search for a second baseman." Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Twins front office with a tremendous opportunity to leverage a high-quality player at peak value in order to bolster the organization's lackluster pitching corps. But it appears that timing may have been against them. For one thing, they've been unable to develop much of a market for Dozier. The list of contenders with high-caliber young arms and a need for an impact hitter at second base was short to begin with, and shrunk when the Mets decided to bring back Neil Walker. Los Angeles was a very obvious fit from the start but unfortunately, no others really emerged. While a few clubs were loosely connected with Minnesota, it was evident all along that no one was going to press hard enough to create a bidding war. This placed the Twins at a rather disadvantageous negotiating position. Beyond these isolated circumstances, there is a larger trend at play. Baseball teams, in general, seem to be losing their thirst for power. It's the name of Dozier's game, but the home run doesn't carry the same appeal it once did. Consider this: Most expected Edwin Encarnacion, who ranks second in baseball since 2012 in both homers and RBI, to land a deal in excess of $100 million as a free agent this offseason. Instead, he settled for $60 million from Cleveland. His former Toronto teammate Jose Bautista, another of the game's premier power bats, has yet to find a job. Same for Mark Trumbo, whose 47 bombs led the majors in 2016. In other years, it would feel crazy that a second baseman coming off a 42-homer campaign wouldn't generate an aggressive market. In this current environment, though, it's kinda par for the course. Every report on the matter has made sure to emphasize that trade discussions are not considered dead. Levine said this week that a point might come where the Twins would stop initiating calls, but they would never stop listening. However, Rosenthal's note about how the Minnesota front office "wanted to give Dozier a heightened peace of mind about his status with the club" matches a similar relay from Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press a week earlier. Reading between the lines, one can infer that Falvey and Levine have informed Dozier he'll be back in 2017 barring an unforeseen development. They're wise to keep their antennas up but at this point, it's tough to see what would change to precipitate a deal. More than a month after discussions began, there has been little in the way of evident progress. The Dodgers might feel they've done their part by offering up Jose De Leon, who is viewed by some as a top five prospect in the entire game. The Twins, meanwhile, are understandably opposed to giving up their best and most popular player for a single lottery ticket whose future could be thrown into question with a reoccurrence of his shoulder soreness, or an extension of his initial big-league struggles. It looks like the trenches that have been dug here. And while it's odd to see no accord despite such a natural match, it's not like either team is in a corner. Dodgers president Andrew Friedman, who gained notoriety while running operations for the Tampa Bay Rays, understands as well as anyone the value (and fickleness) of cheap young pitching talent. He'll be content keeping his full arsenal of young hurlers and looking elsewhere for an offensive boost. Maybe someone like Bautista could be an option. Meanwhile, the Twins can hang on to Dozier, who still doesn't turn 30 until May. He's in his prime and the possibility exists that we still haven't seen his best campaign. With two years left on his contract, he figures to retain strong value going forward, and if Minnesota surprisingly jumps out to a competitive start this season, he'll almost certainly be a big reason for it. That's a precarious gamble, though. Outside of adding Jason Castro, the Twins haven't done much to meaningfully upgrade a 100-loss team. It's reasonable to expect significant improvements from a contingent of returning players, but gaining 20-plus wins on that basis is a tough sell. If the shiny new front office brings back a largely untouched roster in 2017, the luster is going to quickly wear off in the eyes of fans and season ticket holders. So if Dozier stays, what's the plan? Spend some money to supplement the team around him and hope to catch lightning in a bottle? That definitely would not jibe with Falvey's initial talk of building for the future and looking at the big picture. But then again, you've got to work with what you've got. All that the Chief Baseball Officer and his GM can do is play the hand they're dealt. Now, we'll see if they push in their chips or continue to slow-play and straddle the line between trying to rebuild or retool. Click here to view the article

For weeks, the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Dodgers have been in an apparent stalemate regarding a Brian Dozier trade. What's keeping these talks from reaching fruition?Over the past month or so, we've seen reports from numerous outlets suggesting that the Dodgers are making prospect Jose De Leon available as the main piece in a potential deal, and that the two sides are in disagreement over what would come packaged alongside the right-hander. The latest tidbit, a Thursday tweet from USA TODAY baseball scribe Bob Nightingale, affirms (unsurprisingly) that Los Angeles remains "heavy favorites" for Dozier but adds that the "Twins continue to insist they need more than Jose De Leon to move him." Now, what Nightingale is probably saying is that the Twins are demanding at least one more top-tier prospect in addition to De Leon. But if we take the words at face value, there is an implication that the Dodgers are offering nothing beyond the 24-year-old. Nothing of note, anyway. And that... well, that'd be a bit ridiculous. Let's turn the clock back to the 2016 trade deadline. Seeking to bulk up for the stretch run, the Dodgers swung a deal with the Oakland Athletics to acquire starter Rich Hill along with outfielder Josh Reddick. In exchange, LA gave up three of its top pitching prospects: Grant Holmes, Frankie Montas and Jharel Cotton. Both Hill and Reddick became free agents at year's end, so in that instance, the Dodgers were willing to give up three coveted young arms for a pair of short-term rentals. Granted, no one among the aforementioned trio can quite measure up to De Leon, but they were pretty damn good prospects. And here we're talking about Dozier, an elite power hitting middle infielder in his prime with two full years of control remaining. With that context in mind, plus the return that the White Sox recently received when trading Adam Eaton to the Nationals a month ago, the Twins would be crazy to give up Dozier for one unproven player. Being that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are both essentially newbies on the job, the last thing they want to do is get swindled when dealing away the team's best player. So, the reluctance to pull the trigger makes sense, in light of these facts. But time is running out. For Dozier, this has undoubtedly been an agonizing couple of months. He's not ignorant to the business of baseball, but hanging in a state of complete limbo as he is can't be fun. An article from Mike Berardino in the Pioneer Press earlier this week quoted a source as saying that a final decision would be coming soon "out of respect" for the veteran infielder. But what does that really mean? If another week passes and the Dodgers still haven't budged, Falvey and Levine say "OK, no deal" and that's that? Even if LA comes back at the end of the month – after futilely scouring for another decent option at second – and offers to meet the previous demands, the Twins are going to say no? It's a murky situation, to be sure. Signs still point to a trade being announced quite soon but with each passing day, the chances of Dozier remaining in Minnesota get a little bit better. I'm not sure how I would feel about that. I've been a vocal proponent of trading Dozier for De Leon since before the season ended. But if the Dodgers are truly set on low-balling the Twins for a premier player – and that would be inexplicable because LA truly needs Dozier – then I could hardly fault the new regime for standing pat. One way or another, it sounds like we'll have an answer within a few days. As we continue to play the waiting game, here are some diversions to keep you busy (and educated): Whenever any significant news relating to this situation emerges, you can bet it will posted to the Dozier Trade Discussion thread in our forum. There are currently 73 pages of conversation, but skip to the end for the newest submissions.Last month I wrote an in-depth profile on De Leon, who is all but certain to headline any eventual package. As you will see, there is much to like about the Puerto Rican strikeout machine.Jeremy Nygaard wrote over the weekend about creative ways that the Twins and Dodgers could complete a deal without adding any big names behind De Leon. Click here to view the article

The Twins want some roster clarity as the calendar flips to 2017. According to a report from the Star Tribune's La Velle E. Neal III, "The club would like interested teams to step up with their best offer in the coming days, or they plan to prepare for the 2017 season with Dozier as their second baseman." Trade rumors have been swirling around the Twins' face of the franchise after a monster season where he belted over 40 home runs. With two-years remaining on his contract at a team friendly price, there are multiple teams interested in acquiring the second baseman. Here's a recap where things are when it comes to a Dozier deal.The Dodgers continue to be the team most likely best-suited to acquire Dozier. Los Angeles has a surplus of pitching prospects and a desire to win now. Jose De Leon's name is the one that has been most associated with the Twins. The right-handed pitching prospect was a top-25 prospect entering last season while making his MLB debut at age-23. According to Neal, the Dodgers have been pushing for a straight Dozier for De Leon trade. The Twins have wanted the addition of another top prospect like first baseman Cody Bellinger or right-handed pitcher Yadier Alvarez. Los Angeles hasn't budged in their offer. Other teams rumored to be interested are the Giants, Cardinals, and Braves. If the Giants want to work a deal, they would likely need to bring in a third team because their farm system doesn't have as many high caliber prospects. They also have Joe Panik to play second base so Dozier could need to move to third base, a position he has little experience playing. Chatter surrounding the Cardinals interest in Dozier peaked last week when KSTP's Darren Wolfson reported that the Cardinals are "very much in it." However, the Cardinals might be hesitant to include their top prospects like right-handed pitcher Alex Reyes or catcher Carson Kelly. Some believe the Cardinals reported interest in Dozier was a ploy from the organization to get more value squeezed out of the Dodgers. Washington was aggressive this off-season by trading multiple prospects to the White Sox to acquire Adam Eaton. This might leave them little in the tank when it comes to dealing for Dozier. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post said the Nationals "haven't made any serious inquiries on Twins' Dozier." She went on to say that there was "no natural fit there." Atlanta has been working on their own rebuild so it doesn't seem likely that they would want to trade away top prospects for the remaining years on Dozier's contract. Dozier would help their current squad make strides in the right direction but their organization is built to win in the future, not in the present. While the Dodger continue to seem to be the most likely fit, Los Angeles is going to have to up their offer for the Twins to take a deal. With multiple years remaining on his contract, the Twins could wait until the trade deadline and hope there are more teams willing to deal away their top talent. This would also require Dozier to continue to play the way he did in the second half. Time might be running out on a Dozier deal. Click here to view the article

We live in an unpredictable world, but some things aren't that hard to foresee. When a batter steps into the box with a 3-0 count and the bases loaded, he can safely assume a fastball is on the way. The Dodgers emerging as the leading suitors for Brian Dozier, and dangling Jose De Leon as their primary negotiating chip, falls in the same category.Back in early October, while the Los Angeles was still mounting its postseason push, I noted via tweet that a Dozier-for-De Leon swap "makes too much sense." In the Offseason Handbook (still available for free download!), the Dodgers were the first team we listed as a fit for Dozier, and our Offseason Blueprint suggested trading the second baseman for a return led by De Leon. Now, the Twins are consistently being connected to Los Angeles in trade rumors. Last week Aaron Gleeman relayed, per league sources, a feeling that the two teams are haggling over what would come along with De Leon in a deal. Days later, Yahoo Sports columnist Jeff Passan reinforced that notion, reporting that the "Dodgers have shown willingless" to include the top prospect in a package for Dozier. It's all coming together pretty much exactly like we predicted and hoped. My intention here isn't to pat myself on the back. Anticipating this scenario didn't require some divine prescience – only an ability to connect the dots. The Twins are coming off a 103-loss season and could use a major shakeup, with a roster featuring a surplus of power hitting and an extreme dearth of high-caliber pitching. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are as motivated as any team in the league to get over the hump and win a title, with young arms to spare. The top prize amongst that group, Julio Urias, was never a particularly realistic target. After successfully transitioning to the majors at age 19 and subsequently becoming the youngest pitcher ever to start a postseason game, he's not the kind of asset that was going to be made available. De Leon, though? Far more plausible. He is four years older than Urias and doesn't carry quite the same level of luster. He also struggled a bit in his MLB debut this year and has dealt with some shoulder issues. He's not a perfect prospect. But that doesn't mean he's leftover scraps. Far from it. In the majority of systems De Leon would be the No. 1 prospect, and if he comes over he will immediately leapfrog every pitcher on the farm for the Twins. Let's familiarize ourselves with De Leon as we prepare for the possibility that he headlines an upcoming Dozier blockbuster. Meteoric Riser After finishing up high school in his native Puerto Rico, De Leon headed to the mainland to attend college in Baton Rouge. His career with Southern University featured solid numbers, including a 17-8 record and 3.50 ERA over three seasons, but he didn't catch the eyes of many pro scouts. As a result, the slender righty dropped all the way to the 24th round. He was the 724th player selected in 2013. Earlier in that round, the Twins took Brandon Easton, a pitcher who lasted two years in rookie ball before fizzling out of the system. For players selected this late, the odds of reaching the majors – or even hanging on in the affiliated pro ranks for long – are not good. Against this backdrop, De Leon's ascension is all the more impressive. His numbers began to rapidly improve and remained strong as he climbed the ladder. He impressed enough at each level that he never stayed anywhere for long. De Leon made four starts at Low-A, seven at High-A, 16 at Double-A and then 16 at Triple-A before getting his call to the big leagues. Everywhere he pitched, it took him no more than half a season to convince the front office that he was too good for the competition. Prospect pubs quickly took notice. Prior to the 2016 campaign, three major lists (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com) had De Leon somewhere between 23 and 28, after never ranking him before. The website Minor League Ball, run by longtime prospect guru John Sickels, had De Leon ranked as the game's 14th-best upcoming talent in their preseason release. In the updated end-of-year rankings, published in late September, he was fifth. Sickels placed only Yoan Moncada, Dansby Swanson, Tyler Glasnow and Lucas Giolito ahead of De Leon. The 24-year-old owes his escalating profile to a number of skills and strengths, but none stand out more than this one: He's A Strikeout Machine De Leon's ability to throw the ball past helpless opposing hitters is truly something to behold. During his time in the minors, he has struck out 446 of the 1,371 men he has faced over 330 innings. That's a 12.1 K/9 average and 33 percent rate. For perspective, Jose Berrios – a fellow Puerto Rican and vaunted strikeout artist in his own right – has a 26 percent K-rate in the minors. De Leon would have easily led both the Texas League (AA) and Pacific Coast League (AAA) this year if he had stuck around long enough to qualify. It's been somewhat rare for the Twins to boast starting pitching prospects who can even average one strikeout per inning. De Leon has 100 more strikeouts than innings pitched during his relatively short time in the Dodgers system. When so few balls are put into play, it's tough to scratch out many hits. So it's no surprise that in those 330 innings of work, De Leon has allowed only 273 hits. Twins pitchers have allowed the most hits of any American League team in five straight seasons. De Leon's Changeup Is A Devastating Weapon In the tradition of Johan Santana, De Leon relies on his changeup as an out pitch. He's comfortable throwing it in any count, and uses it often. The arm action effectively mimics his fastball to create deception, but he takes about 10 MPH off it with significant vertical movement. (Scroll down to the changeup section here for some good looks at it.) Twins pitching coach Neil Allen, who is staying on for 2017, is known to be "big on changeups." He would undoubtedly welcome the chance to work with a starter who has developed the offering into a centerpiece of his repertoire. The Shoulder Is A Concern Or at least, it was. De Leon spent the first month this year in extended spring while recovering from an ankle injury, then made just one start before sitting out another five weeks due to shoulder inflammation. It's not the greatest sign for a guy who is just getting his season started. The Dodgers proceeded very cautiously when the hurler returned from the disabled list, removing him before the fifth inning in each of his first four starts. But by the time he graduated from Triple-A those restrictions were a distant memory. In his final 10 turns with Oklahoma City prior to a September promotion to the majors, De Leon completed seven-plus innings six times and exceeded 100 pitches four times. He also went 6-1 with a 2.43 ERA. At this point there isn't much reason to think he's got a bad wing, but it's something to keep an eye on. He hasn't thrown more than 114 total innings in a season, so he needs to prove he can hold up to a starter's workload. He appeared to wear down in his final starts for the Dodgers. Perhaps this is the main factor compelling the Twins to a hold out for a bit more in addition to De Leon. That's reasonable enough. But even with some minor health concerns, the highly touted late bloomer appears to be a worthy top prize in exchange for Dozier. He would also provide a dramatic boost to an already encouraging pipeline of impending arrivals. Hopefully Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can get this thing done. Click here to view the article

During this week's Winter Meetings we've seen the Chicago White Sox trade two of their premier players, Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, for a total of seven prospects. The moves have skyrocketed the White Sox farm system, which has been rated in the bottom third of baseball for several years. With Sale and Eaton both being very valuable thanks to their ages and team-friendly contracts, the White Sox managed to land both quality and quantity in terms of the prospects they acquired. For the Twins, it's likely the front office will have to choose between quality and quantity in their deals this winter.It's not difficult to imagine Derek Falvey & Co. making a couple of similar deals, though on a slightly smaller scale. But with a solid young foundation already in place and more help on the way with the No. 1 pick in this upcoming June's draft, should the Twins be more focused on top quality in their returns? The Brian Dozier trade winds continue to swirl, but things have been curiously quiet on the Ervin Santana front. Maybe neither of them get traded this offseason, but it seems obvious that if one goes there's not much reason to hold on to the other. So why not try to move them both in the same deal? There are rumored to be multiple teams interested in Dozier, but the most smoke has been surrounding the Los Angeles Dodgers. And, like most teams, the Dodgers could use another starting pitcher. This would be the ultimate putting all your eggs in the same basket deal, but how about offering Dozier and Santana for 20-year-old wonder boy Julio Urias? Getting third and fourth starters, middle relievers or solid everyday players is never all that difficult. Every year those types of players can be acquired on the free agent market, and with a core of cheap young players coming up and Joe Mauer's contract coming off the books soon the Twins should have spending room in the future. Getting aces, shutdown closers or stud hitters is extremely difficult. Even when those players become available you either have to sell your farm system just to get them as a half-season rental or sign them to ridiculous free agent contracts that are two or three years longer than you'd like. As with any young player, Urias is a lottery ticket, but his odds of giving you a jackpot are as high as they get. And if Urias hits you would have a player who is great, young and under extended team control. Of course, all this is assuming the Dodgers would even agree to the swap. Despite facing more advanced hitters his entire minor league career, the Mexican lefty dominated. Urias has a 2.66 ERA and 10.5 K/9 over 267 1/3 innings in the minors. He got the call to the show last season as a 19-year-old and did not experience much of a learning curve. Over 77 innings with the Dodgers, Urias had a 3.39 ERA and averaged 9.8 K/9. That's the kind of player who is next to impossible for the Twins to acquire under normal circumstances. Jose De Leon, the most rumored centerpiece in purposed Dozier deals, looks completely ordinary next to Urias. But still, it's much more likely Dozier is traded for a package of youngsters. And to be fair, both Falvey and GM Thad Levine have first-hand experience acquiring some really impressive players in such packages. But when those trades don't work out, well ... we all remember the Johan Santana trade. Maybe the Urias scenario isn't realistic, but what do you think about the idea in general? Should the Twins shoot for the moon and package Dozier and Ervin in the same deal, or should they try to diversify their returns and trade them in separate deals for packages of prospects? Click here to view the article

Many of you have taken the 40 seconds needed to download the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook. In it, you were able to read the run-downs on free agent options, some trade ideas and much, much more. In the end, you saw our consolidated blueprint for the Twins offseason. Today, I am going to post mine. I don’t expect you to agree with each aspect of it. In fact, I may not agree with all aspects of it. What I do encourage you to do is think about what you would recommend the Twins do this offseason and write up a Blog posting or post it in the forum to get feedback from others.We’ll start with the 40-man roster decisions (which will be made on Friday) and work through the arbitration decisions, free agency and a couple of trades. In the end, we’ll see what kind of payroll we’re looking at for 2017. 40-Man Roster Decisions Earlier this week, I wrote an article showing the top ten players (or more) that the Twins have to consider adding to their 40-man roster or risk losing in the Rule 5 draft. The team is currently sitting at 36 players on their 40-man roster. At this time, I would remove Juan Centeno, Danny Santana and Buddy Boshers to reduce that number to 33. I would then ADD pitchers Fernando Romero and Felix Jorge, catcher Mitch Garver, shortstop Engelb Vielma and outfielders Daniel Palka and Zack Granite to the 40-man roster. That puts the team at 39, allowing them to make a Rule 5 draft pick. Arbitration Decisions Trevor Plouffe ($9M): Decline. Certainly I would try to trade him, or include him in a trade first, but I think that it makes the most sense for the Twins to non-tender him. Hector Santiago ($8M): Accept. Not an easy choice, but Santiago posted ERAs of 3.75 or less all four years from 2012-2015. 2016 didn’t go as well, but I’ll take my chances. Again, the Twins need pitching, and he’s been solid. Eduardo Escobar ($3.5M): Accept. Really a pretty easy choice, but I like the fact that he’s a great team player and has found success in a utility role. The fact that he can play a solid shortstop also is valuable with question marks at the position. Kyle Gibson ($2.5M): Accept. He was the Twins pitcher of the year in 2015, and injury and ineffectiveness and inconsistency all describe his 2016. So, 2017 is a big year for the right-hander. For the price, worth the time to find out. Brandon Kintzler ($2.5M): After missing a lot of 2015 with a knee injury, Kintzler came to the Twins on a minor league deal. He was up with the Twins within about a month and ended up their closer. He may not be the prototype for a closer, but he hits 94, throws strikes, lots of grounders. Again, for the money, no reason not to bring him back. Ryan Pressly ($1.5M): Former Rule 5 pick frequently hit 96-98 on the radar gun a year ago. Pitched way too much early and it certainly affected him as the season went on. However, his stuff is good, and definitely worth keeping around. FREE AGENCY CATCHER I’m in agreement that the Twins should sign a catcher. I just have a hard time handing out a long-term, big money contract to a catcher who either is, or is about to reach, 30 years old. So, count me out on the likes of Wilson Ramos and Matt Wieters, and I’m thinking that the market for Jason Castro will cause him to potentially get a fourth year or more per year than many think. So, what do I want in a catcher? Ideally, I’d like to see a good defensive catcher. With John Ryan Murphy and Mitch Garver in the picture, I would like to see a left-handed bat on a one-year contract. Enter the likes of Dioner Navarro and Alex Avila. Give me Avila on a one-year deal with a base between $2-2.5 million with some incentives based on playing time. He’s a smart catcher who plays good defense. He also knows the American League Central well. I would like to see nearly a 50-50 split between John Ryan Murphy and Alex Avila to start the season, taking advantage of platoon splits as appropriate. Mitch Garver is close, so he can be recalled if (or when) there is an injury. Murphy is good defensively, and he will (most likely) hit much better than he did last year. Plus, he’s still going to be 25 years old until the middle of May. BULLPEN First, I hope Glen Perkins comes back and becomes the reliever we remember. I also feel that assuming that will happen is a little naive (maybe) and should not be relied upon, at least not to start the season. So, I won’t include him, and I will hope really hard that he is able to come back. Second, I believe in the young arms that are working their way up. However, as we have seen, it doesn’t always happen as fast as we want. AA and AAA aren’t necessarily easy, and despite college or low-minor league level success, adjustments need to be made and lessons learned. Of course, injuries also factor into the timeline. JT Chargois, Mason Melotakis, Nick Burdi, Zack Jones, and others have all missed significant time due to injuries. Trevor Hildenberger missed August with an elbow injury. So, as much as I would like to see these guys all come up and become what we think they can be, we need to have alternate plans. That said, I am hopeful that we will see Burdi, Melotakis, Hildenberger and Jake Reed by midseason. So, I want to bring in one hard-throwing, strikeout reliever. I’ve been a big fan of David Hernandez since well before his 2013 Tommy John surgery. In 2016, he struck out 80 (and walked 32) in 72.2 innings for the Orioles. His overall numbers aren’t great, so I’d offer him a 1 year, $3.75 million deal which includes an option for 2018 at $4.5 million (with a $250,000 buyout). I would give him the opportunity to close, along with Ryan Pressly and JT Chargois. TRADE I am not a fan of trading Brian Dozier. At all. Losing him would certainly hurt the team’s offense significantly. Moving Jorge Polanco to second based and putting someone else at shortstop will hurt offensively especially. So, in order for me as GM to deal him, I will have to receive a top young starting pitcher. Someone who is right up there with Jose Berrios (or higher) in prospect rankings but also at or very near the big league level. And more, since as we know, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Recently, it was reported that the Dodgers are exploring the idea of acquiring Ian Kinsler from the Tigers. Kinsler has a no-trade clause, and he’s five years older than Dozier. Certainly the Falvey/Levine regime has already had some sort of discussion with the Dodgers regarding Dozier. One of Nick’s ideas in the Offseason Handbook for a Dozier Deal involved Jose De Leon. Like Jose Berrios, De Leon is a right-hander from Puerto Rico. He was the Dodgers 24th round pick in 2013 out of college in Louisiana. MLB Pipeline currently ranks De Leon as their #32 prospect, the 6th best right-handed pitching prospect in baseball. This is the same range that Berrios was a year ago. It would take a bit more for me to pull the trigger on the deal though. I would like Ross Stripling, who turns 27 next week, who had a solid debut in 2016. He pitched for Chattanooga in 2013 before missing the entire 2014 season and the first half of the 2015 season following Tommy John surgery. Another year post surgery and there is a chance he can be a mid-rotation starter. The other player I would ask for is veteran Scott Van Slyke. The 30-year-old outfielder has been a part-time player throughout his career. However, in his career, he has hit .262/.366/.479 (.845) against left-handed pitching. I would like to see him platooned with Eddie Rosario in left field. With Rosario and Kepler able to play centerfield at times to give Buxton a day off, the Twins don’t really need a traditional fourth outfielder. Van Slyke is in his first year of arbitration. His 2016 season ended in early August with a wrist injury. (If the Twins can get Van Slyke I would DFA Robbie Grossman. If the Twins can’t get Van Slyke, Grossman remains the 4th outfielder.) I would add Michael Tonkin to the deal as well. (Don’t get me wrong. I fully admit that if Tonkin isn’t traded in the offseason, he would be removed from the 40-man roster, if it were me. But a deal to the Dodgers would at least send him to a winning team in his home state. With Justin Turner potentially being lost via free agency, the Dodgers may have interest in Trevor Plouffe. And if I don’t get a top, near-ready pitching prospect and a second-tier, near-ready starting pitching for him, I have a hard time trading him. I would happily keep him on the roster. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Before getting to my Roster Blueprint, be sure to download a copy of the Offseason Handbook so that you can create your own Twins blueprint. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seth’s Blueprint Roster HITTERS C - John Ryan Murphy - $0.5M C - Alex Avila - $2.5M 1B - Joe Mauer - $23.0M 2B - Jorge Polanco - $0.5M 3B - Miguel Sano - $0.5M SS - Engelb Vielma - $0.5M LF - Eddie Rosario - $0.5M CF - Byron Buxton - $0.5M RF - Max Kepler - $0.5M DH - Kennys Vargas - $0.5M IF - Eduardo Escobar - $3.5M OF - Scott Van Slyke - $1.3M PH/1B - Byungho Park - $2.75M HITTER TOTAL - $37.05M The theme is much more defense-minded, which should also help the pitching. Murphy and Avila will help behind the plate. Polanco should be better at second base than shortstop. The outfield is young, has great range and good arms. Finally, the name that stands out is Engelb Vielma. Will he hit? Will he hit for power? Nope. Don’t even think about it. Will he play great defense, showing hands, range and a big arm? Yes. The offense will take a step backwards, but the defense should be leaps and bounds better. Except at third base where it will be all about the offense. There are several platoon opportunities including first base DH and left field. Having Escobar will be important as Vielma transitions to the big leagues. PITCHERS SP - Ervin Santana - $13.5M SP - Hector Santiago - $8.0M SP - Kyle Gibson - $2.5M SP - Ross Stripling - $0.5M SP - Jose De Leon/Adalberto Mejia/Jose Berrios - $0.5M STARTING PITCHERS TOTAL - $25.0M Weird things seem to happen, whether it is injury or poor performance. Having plenty of depth at starting pitcher is important. At some point, De Leon, Mejia and Berrios will be part of the rotation. Trading Santana this winter doesn’t make sense to me, but I would consider trading him at the deadline in July. The same can be said for Santiago. The five starting pitchers who began the season in Ft. Myers and ended in Chattanooga (Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Randy Rosario and Felix Jorge) along with Fernando Romero likely won’t be ready until at least 2018. This gives them a chance to develop at their own, appropriate pace, while the three (or four) younger starters mentioned above get their shot in the big leagues. RP - David Hernandez ($3.75M) RP - Brandon Kintzler ($2.5M) RP - JT Chargois ($0.5M) RP - Ryan Pressly ($0.5M) RP - Taylor Rogers ($0.5M) RP - Trevor May ($0.5M) RP - Tyler Duffey ($0.5M) BULLPEN PITCHERS TOTAL - $8.75M In the bullpen, there are some solid arms with a lot of talent and velocity who need innings and situations in the big leagues. That will soon be the case for others, like Pat Light, Reed, Burdi, Hildenberger, and Melotakis who should all surface in 2017 as well. The bullpen could be dominant in 2018. I would retain Ryan O'Rourke as the guy ready to come up when the Twins are ready to face a lot of lefties or just need an arm. Also under contract - Glen Perkins ($6.5M) and Phil Hughes($13.2M). Total Roster Salary - $90.5M SUMMARY $90.5 million. Yeah, that’s right. And when some read that, it will not be taken well. But I’m thinking 2018 and 2019 more than I’m thinking 2017. So I have a mix of youth with a few veterans. But it’s all about development of the young players, whether that is at-bats or innings pitched in the big leagues, or allowing a little extra time in AA or AAA to be more ready. Think about a 2018 rotation that includes Jose Berrios, Jose De Leon, Adalberto Mejia and Stephen Gonsalves, all guys who could be Top 100 prospects sometime between 2016 and 2017. Add in the potential of Fernando Romero and the pitching staff has the ability to be different and exciting by the second half of 2019. While the focus was mostly on defense with my moves at catcher and shortstop, the offense should be OK, even with the losses of Dozier and Plouffe. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Kennys Vargas and Byungho Park could all be better offensively too. I strongly considered Jason Castro, but it seems like he is going to wind up getting more than the three years, $21 million that we predicted. His defense is great, but his offense isn’t worth the extra year or extra annual salary he will get. I couldn't justify that for a guy who will turn 30 during the middle of year one of such a deal. I did also consider Ian Desmond as a free agent signing at shortstop. He had a nice 2016 in his one-year, make-good deal with the Rangers. He played in the outfield and hit pretty well. But, he isn’t a great defensive shortstop and his offense went downward for three straight seasons before 2016. So, four years and $60 million (or more) seemed too much. If he would sign for two years and $32-35 million, I would strongly consider it. It’s not the time for the Twins to sign one of the not-so-great starting pitching options. It doesn’t make sense to spend a ton of money on a closer. It’s time to let the players that Terry Ryan and his regime developed play in the big leagues. In doing so, it’ll likely mean ten to 15 more wins than in 2016. And, maybe spend that extra $10 million adding to the front office staff, the analytics team, the medical staff and other areas in need of being beefed up. So, what do you think? 2017 is about improvement and development. It’s an opportunity for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to evaluate everything, from the players on the field to the size and functionality of the front office. Click here to view the article