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Teams love to get off to a good start in the season's early weeks. However, the Twins' April schedule sets up to put the team in a hole. Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports During the 2022 season, the Twins got off to a fast start with a 12-9 record in April. This stretch included a seven-game win streak and multiple walk-off wins. The early 2023 schedule isn't as favorable for the hometown nine, and it might be challenging for the club to survive the month with a .500 record. The Good: March 30-April 2 at Kansas City Royals, April 3-5 at Miami Marlins, April 21-23 vs. Washington Nationals, April 27-30 vs. Kansas City Royals All three of these teams were significantly below .500 during the 2022 season, which can help the Twins to salvage some early season victories. None of these teams made significant additions that will help their projections in 2023. MLB is shifting to a more balanced schedule in 2023, so the Marlins and Nationals series are a result of this change. Minnesota may line up to face Sandy Alcantara, the reigning NL Cy Young, in his second start. Luis Arraez and Pablo Lopez will also get a chance to face their old teams for the first time since this offseason's trade. Another part of the more balanced schedule is the number of divisional games decreasing from 76 to 52. This could hurt the Twins because they are in one of baseball's weakest divisions. Last season, the Twins went 12-7 against the Royals, so Minnesota will have played half of their games against KC by April's end. The Twins need to win all of these series to put themselves in a position to end the month with a winning record. Record Prediction: 10-3 The Bad: April 10-12 vs. Chicago White Sox, April 18-20 at Boston Red Sox Minnesota squeaked out a winning record against Chicago and Boston last season, but it certainly wasn't easy. The Twins went 4-3 against the Red Sox but only outscored them by four runs. At the end of August, Minnesota won a three-game series against Boston but then lost nine of their next 11 games and fell out of contention. Boston has had an interesting offseason as the team lost out on re-signing Xander Bogaerts, and Trevor Story had surgery on his right elbow. The AL East is one of baseball's toughest divisions, so the Red Sox can't afford to start slowly. Chicago's off-season has been about as interesting as Boston's. The White Sox lost Jose Abreu to the Astros, but the team signed Andrew Benintendi to fill one need. Mike Clevinger was their biggest starting pitcher signing, and he is now the subject of a league investigation into domestic violence and child abuse allegations. The Athletic gave Chicago an F grade, the lowest in MLB, for their poor off-season. Minnesota was outscored by Chicago in 2022 but won the season series 10-9. Will former Twins minor-league catcher Pedro Grifol, a new manager, help the White Sox to get back on track? Record Prediction: 3-3 The Ugly: April 6-9 vs. Houston Astros, April 13-16 at New York Yankees, April 24-26 vs. New York Yankees If there were two teams the Twins didn't want to see, it would be the Astros and the Yankees. Both teams have dominated the American League recently, and the Twins have struggled against both squads. The Astros destroyed the Twins in 2022 by going 6-0 and outscoring Minnesota by 25 runs. Even with Justin Verlander gone, Houston continues to churn out young pitchers to step into the rotation. Jose Abreu will step in at first base to help one of baseball's best offenses. Minnesota's only chance might be that the Astros are coming off a long postseason run, and they might be dealing with a World Series hangover. Minnesota's struggles with the Evil Empire are well documented. Last season, the Twins went 2-5 versus the Yankees while being outscored 30-41. New York spent the off-season getting better by re-signing Aaron Judge and adding Carlos Rodon to pair with Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation. Minnesota hasn't won more than two games against the Yankees in any regular season since 2014. After the calendar turns to May, the Twins won't see the Yankees again during the 2023 campaign. The club gets them out of the way early <insert shrug emoji>. Record Prediction: 2-8 If the above predictions hold true, the Twins will end April with a 15-14 record to sit slightly above .500. Many prognostications have the AL central winner ending with 86-88 wins, so this would put the Twins on pace to be close to that total. What are your thoughts about the Twins' early season schedule? What are your predictions for their April record? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

For Twins fans who buy into analytics, as the front office does, Jose Abreu presents a paradox. He's an aging slugger with no defensive value – major red flags for a free agency pursuit. At the same time, there's plenty of (statistical!) evidence to suggest Abreu can provide exactly what Minnesota was missing in 2022. Image courtesy of Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports When you think back to this past year's team, and where it came up short, what comes to mind first? Some might point to late-inning bullpen lapses. Others will call out starters who couldn't stay healthy or pitch deep into games. These are valid answers, but for me, it's an offense that woefully underproduced because of a perpetual inability to cash in on scoring opportunities and keep key fixtures in the lineup. Despite generally a fielding a good group of hitters – at least up until the position corps became completely depleted late in the year – the Twins were shut out with stunning frequency, and they often gave their pitching staff no margin for error, which bit them time and time again. Enter: Jose Abreu. He's spent the past nine years terrorizing the Twins and other teams around the league from the heart of Chicago's lineup. Now he's a free agent, likely to be available on a shorter-term, high-AAV deal. When you look at the qualities that were amiss from Minnesota's lineup in 2022, you basically find them all present in Abreu's profile. The 35-year-old has been ridiculously durable, playing in 528 of a possible 546 games (97%) since 2019, with 145+ games played in all but one full season since he debuted in 2014. He obliterates left-handed pitching, with a career .925 OPS against southpaws. And above all, the man produces runs like an absolute machine. Last year he slashed .268/.366/.471 with RISP and in his career he's at .311/.389/.554. This, along with his reliable everyday presence in the lineup, helped him generate some of the gaudiest RBI totals in baseball over the course of his career. Since 2014 he ranks second among all MLB players with 863. Abreu has driven in 100-plus runs six times and led the league twice, including his MVP season in the truncated 2020. Of course, RBI is not a metric that's going to get a lot of resonance from the analytically inclined crowd. Including me! It tends to be a very overrated stat, reflecting opportunity and circumstance much more than individual excellence. In Abreu's case though, it does help tell the real story. He has been one of the most dependable, consistent run producers in all of baseball for nearly a decade. He is the prototype for an effective cleanup hitter. There's a reason the guy has received MVP votes in seven of his nine seasons. The analytical case against Abreu doesn't end with RBIs inflating his value. There's also the matter of his one-sided impact. As a defensively limited first baseman, Abreu doesn't add much in the field, helping explain why metrics like WAR view him in a relatively negative light despite his durability and production. Consider this: according to fWAR, Abreu has been a less valuable player on whole than Byron Buxton (12.3 to 11.1) since 2019, despite playing in literally almost twice as many games (528 to 279) and winning an MVP during that span. There's validity to this arithmetic. Baseball is a two-way sport, and you certainly can't build a whole team of Abreus. But there's evidence you kinda need at least ONE of those guys. One might look at Abreu's numbers at surface level and perceive a hitter in decline. In 2022 he hit a career-low 15 home runs, his total of 75 RBIs was his second-lowest for a full season, and his .824 OPS was down 36 points from his career mark. However, these figures need to be colored by the context of a depressed offensive environment and an underperforming lineup around him. Abreu's 133 OPS+ was his highest in a full season since 2017. His 40 doubles ranked sixth in the AL. A quick glance at his Statcast sliders does not give the impression of a guy who is wearing down in his mid-30s, with elite measures for exit velo and hard-hit rate. In the past season, Abreu produced an fWAR of 3.9. It was the second-highest since his rookie campaign back in 2014. Not exactly the most reassuring for a player who figures to command somewhere in the $20 million range annually. But consider this: Abreu's fWAR in 2022 was higher than Justin Morneau's (3.8) when he won the AL MVP in 2006. It was higher than Jim Thome's (3.1) in 108 games when he helped lead the Twins to a division title. It was in the same range as Nelson Cruz's (4.3) when he powered the Bomba Squad to 101 wins. These were the three best Twins teams of the past two decades, and all were supported in essential ways by cornerstone sluggers whose contributions are somewhat downplayed by advanced metrics. You can argue Morneau didn't deserve the MVP award in '06. You can argue Cruz's one-sided contribution prevented him from being the team's MVP in '19 (we named Max Kepler for that reason). But can anyone, from the oldest-school to newest-age mentality, plausibly claim these players were not integral to their team's resounding success? At its core, analytics is about analyzing what has happened to form insights for the future. We've watched Cruz – who had the same value-oriented quibbles back in 2019, as an aging slugger with no defensive value – become the most impactful free agent signing in franchise history. Incidentally, Cruz ranks right behind Abreu at third among MLB hitters in RBIs since 2014. No, runs batted in are not predictive indicators of value. But they are indicators of something: the demonstrated ability to stay on the field and consistently generate offense. Minnesota has been lacking for these traits since Cruz left – in 2022, they had only three players reach 500 plate appearances, and no one drove in even 70 runs. (Jose Miranda's 66 RBIs were the lowest total to lead a Twins team in a full season since John Castino's 64 in 1980.) Abreu is the elixir this lineup needs to reach the next level, and the Twins are well equipped to handle his defensive limitations, since they have no full-time DH and all of their current options at first base – Miranda, Alex Kirilloff, Luis Arraez – are capable of playing elsewhere. The fit here is very obvious once you zoom out past a myopic lens of what constitutes value. Abreu is in the same mold as the most celebrated and difference-making free agent signings in Twins history, and he's precisely what their lineup was missing in 2022. You can read more about Abreu, plus many more options available at positions of need for the Twins, by download the complete Offseason Handbook, now available to Caretakers! View full article

It's going to be a crowded weekend for sports fans. Gorgeous weather plus the dreaded White Sox mean it's a perfect weekend to catch a game - but which one? As usual, we break it down scientifically: Best Game To Watch An Ace Pitcher Before He Serves A Suspension The White Sox had two pitchers suspended for “five games”: Chris Sale and Jeff Samardzija. But Samardzija pitched in Wednesday’s bizarre empty-ballpark game, so Twins fans will only get to watch Sale this series. He pitches Thursday night.Watching him might be fun for pitching connoisseurs, but likely won’t be for Twins fans. Sale has a career 2.37 ERA versus the Twins, which includes nine starts and eight relief appearances. Not that the suspension would have pushed him back more than a single game anyway, but he’s appealing it, which is why the Twins get to see him this homestand. Winner: Thursday, unless the Twins can find a way to get Sale suspended some more. Hmmm… Best Game To Watch the White Sox Lose Their Minds We all know by now that the way to make the White Sox go Defcon 6 and pile up a bunch of suspensions is to yell at one of them after a comebacker. But that takes a special kind of crazy, as demonstrated by Royals pitcher Yordano Ventura. Unless the Twins plan on putting Oswaldo Arcia on the mound, I don’t think we have a player who can generate those kind of fireworks. But hitting a few Sox with pitches might do the trick. Only one pitcher on the Twins staff has hit more than one guy with a pitch this year: Mike Pelfrey. He’s also known as one of the nicest guys in the game, unfortunately. But that won’t necessarily stop the White Sox. Winner: Sunday, because Pelfrey pitches that day. Unless the Twins decide to let Oswaldo Arcia pitch, in which case you do whatever it takes to make it to the ballpark Like miss the birth of your only child. Trust me on this. . Best Weather The baseball gods might not like Twins fans, but we’re in good standing with the weather gods this year. We have four straight days of 70s and 80s coming up and May is just starting. It doesn’t look like rain during game time for any of the matchups right now, with the possible exception of Sunday. So let’s go with: Winner: Saturday, because it’s an afternoon game and 81 degrees. #SuckItWinter Least Likely To Interfere With Binge Watching The NFL Draft Winner: Sunday, which is also the day there is a chance for rain. The weather gods apparently hate the football gods. Best Game For Getting A Free Beer And Celebrating The Wild In The Playoffs Friday night the Twins play at 7:00 and whenever you lose interest in the game, you can stroll two block over to Mason’s (6th and Hennepin) and join the MinnCentric guys, including yours truly, at our Wild Support Group Game One Party. It’s free and includes a free beer and “Lucky Lemon Bar”. It does not get better than this. Winner: Friday Best Game For A Sneaky Twins Victory The White Sox this year only have a 541 OPS as a team against left-handers. That includes a loss against Tommy Milone, who takes the hill for the Twins on Saturday afternoon. The White Sox just haven’t faced many southpaws so far this year – but that’s a good thing too. Winner: Saturday Best Game At Which To Catch A Home Run Ball White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu has started 2015 right where he ended 2014 – by slugging the snot out of defenseless baseballs. He already has five home runs on the year and most have been pulled to left field, which is the easiest place to hit home runs in Target Field. By the way, I see a pair or tickets in the second row of section 128, right next to the left field foul pole, for just $11 apiece on Ticket King. Winner: Four way tie. Best Game At Which To Meet The Love Of Your Life Twenty-five years ago tonight I was mocked for my exceptional volleyball skills by a cute Philadelphia blonde. Four years to the day later, I married her. We have spent most April 30ths since then, and several other key moments, at baseball games and Thursday night will be no exception. If you’re looking for magic in this world, I highly recommend a baseball park. It has worked for me. Winner: Me. Click here to view the article

Earlier, we discussed Kurt Suzuki and the rest of the AL Central catchers. Now, we take a look at Joe Mauer and the AL Central first basemen. Mauer had a tough season in 2014 and looks to rebound in 2015. There are some really good first basemen in the division as well. As we continue through this series, we’ll be taking a look at the Twins roster. We’ll make some projections and compare the Twins players to the rest of the American League Central.MINNESOTA TWINS – JOE MAUER After ten years as a major league catcher, foul tips to the mask finally caught up to Mauer and he made the move to first base in 2014. Did the concussion(s) affect the beginning of Mauer’s 2014 season at the plate? I think it would be hard to argue that it didn’t, and Mauer had the most difficult offensive season of his career. (Admittedly, he had set the bar very high) He hit just .277/.361/.371 (.732) with 27 doubles and four home runs. One big question for the Minnesota Twins in 2015 has to do with the soon-to-be 32-year-old Mauer. Will he be able to get close to those remarkable offensive numbers he put up for most of his first decade in the big leagues, or did that decade behind the plate do him in and he’ll continue to “struggle” in 2015? That’s the question, and of course, there is no way to answer that question with any certainty. So what are we projecting from Joe Mauer in 2015? The projections of our Twins Daily writers: Seth – .296/.371/.428 (.799) with 37 doubles and 8 HR. Nick – .315/.410/.445 (.855) with 40 doubles and 10 HR. Parker – John – .300/.380/.400 (780 OPS) with 35 doubles, and 8 HR. AL CENTRAL FIRST BASEMEN Opponent – Player – 2015 Age – 2014 Statistics Chicago – Jose Abreu – 28 - .317/.383/.581 (.964) with 35 doubles, 36-HR Cleveland – Carlos Santana – 29 - .231/.365/.427 (.792) with 25 doubles, 27-HR Detroit – Miguel Cabrera – 32 - .313/.371/.524 (.895) with 52 doubles, 25-HR Kansas City – Eric Hosmer – 25 - .270/.318/.398 (.716) with 35 doubles, 9-HR AL CENTRAL FIRST BASEMAN RANKINGS #1 – Jose Abreu – Chicago #2 – Miguel Cabrera – Detroit #3 – Carlos Santana – Cleveland #4 – Joe Mauer – Minnesota #5 – Eric Hosmer – Kansas City NOW IT’S YOUR TURN Give it a little thought and then go to the comments section below and post two things. First, make your statistical projection for Joe Mauer in 2015. Second, how would you rank the AL Central first basemen? Of course, then discuss with the rest of the Twins Daily community. Finally, check back throughout this next week as we’ll do these same things for each of the positions. Click here to view the article