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Found 21 results

  1. Aaron and John talk about the Twins calling up Aaron Hicks and demoting Kennys Vargas, how they've figured out how to beat every team except the Tigers, Jordan Schafer's place on the team whenever he's healthy, reviewing Comerica Park and Mad Max, Tommy Milone thriving at Triple-A, wanting someone who can actually hit in the DH spot, and answering mailbag questions from listeners. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article
  2. http://traffic.libsyn.com/gleemangeek/GATG_05172015_FINAL.mp3
  3. MINNESOTA TWINS – JORDAN SCHAFER Once a top prospect in all of baseball, Jordan Schafer has been through some personal demons. However, he got another chance with the Braves in 2013 and became a solid fourth outfielder. He began 2014 with the Braves. However, through the midway point in the season, he had just 93 plate appearances in 63 games played. He was basically just a late-innings defensive replacement and pinch runner. It would be difficult for anyone to put up decent numbers with that infrequent playing time. The Braves designated Schafer for assignment. The Twins had just traded outfielder Sam Fuld at the trade deadline and wanted another outfielder. Schafer fits the Sam Fuld mold, probably a fourth outfielder, but capable of starting for a period of time too. In the season’s final two months, he played most every day. In 41 games (and 147 plate appearances), he hit .285/.345/.362 (.707) with 30 stolen bases. Did playing every day allow him to play well, or should we only note that in his 1,398 total big league plate appearances, he has a .229/.311/.310 (.621) slash line? The reality is that it’s probably somewhere in the middle. Schafer is a different person, more mature and more experienced at age 28 than when he first came to the big leagues. What he did as a 23- or 24- or 25- year-old isn’t necessarily what he is today. And yes, playing every day should be better for him (or most anyone) than playing in one of two games and maybe getting four or five plate appearances each week. Our Twins Daily writers make their predictions: Seth – .268/.324/.351 (.675) with 16 doubles and 4 HR. Nick – .250/.315/.340 (.655) with 15 doubles and 3 HR. Parker – .260/.330/.350 (.690) with 10 doubles and 1 HR John – .250/.330/.340 (.690) with 18 doubles and 2 HR (and 30+ SB). AL CENTRAL CENTER FIELDERS Opponent – Player – 2015 Age – 2014 Statistics Chicago – Adam Eaton – 26 - .300/.362/.401 (.763) with 26 doubles, 1-HR Cleveland – Michael Bourn – 32 - .257/.314/.360 (.674) with 17 doubles, 3-HR Detroit – Anthony Gose – 24 - .226/.311/.293 (.604) with 8 doubles, 2-HR Kansas City – Lorenzo Cain – 29 - .301/.339/.412 (.751) with 29 doubles, 5-HR AL CENTRAL CENTER FIELD RANKINGS #1 – Adam Eaton - Chicago #2 – Lorenzo Cain – Kansas City #3 – Michael Bourn – Cleveland #4 – Jordan Schafer – Minnesota #5 – Anthony Gose – Detroit NOW IT’S YOUR TURN Give it a little thought and then go to the comments section below and post two things. First, make your statistical projection for Jordan in 2015. Second, how would you rank the AL Central center fielders? Then discuss your thoughts with the rest of the Twins Daily community on the Twins center field position. How will it play out throughout the season? Check back throughout this next week as we’ll do these same things for each of the positions. PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS AND RANKINGS Kurt Suzuki Joe Mauer Brian Dozier Trevor Plouffe Danny Santana Oswaldo Arcia
  4. http://traffic.libsyn.com/gleemangeek/Episode_183_The_Best_Shape_Of_His_Life.mp3
  5. At the beginning of this month, I projected the Twins Opening Day roster. When spring training begins, I’ll update that list. There are few questions marks in the roster. The fifth starter job will be up for grabs as well as a couple of bullpen spots. However, the centerfield job will certainly be one to watch.We know that Torii Hunter will be starting in right field. Oswaldo Arcia will make the move over to left field, but centerfield remains a question. The Twins did not address the position in the offseason, at least not in a big, obvious way. This leads me to what I believe to be Plan A. Plan A: Third Time’s The Charm I am of the belief that the Twins brass wants Aaron Hicks to have a strong spring training and take the reins on the starting job. That’s what he did in 2013. In 2014, he beat out Alex Presley for the starting centerfield job. In fact, the Twins DFA'd Presley near the end of spring training, meaning that there really wasn’t a backup plan for 2014. In fact, when Hicks was sent back to the minor leagues, the Twins tried Eduardo Escobar in centerfield for a game before the job was given to Danny Santana, who ran with it. Hicks will be just 25 years old throughout the 2014 season. That isn’t necessarily young, but I wonder if some think he might be older after being given the opportunity the last two seasons. He has never been a great hitter in the minor leagues, but in a good year, he can fill a stat sheet. He has all the tools to be good. Even in a poor 2014 season, he posted a .341 on-base percentage. It’s possible, so the team does have to have a Plan B, too. Plan B: Fourth Outfielder Platoon Jordan Schafer is going to be on the roster. If Aaron Hicks is the starter, Schafer is the fourth outfielder. If Aaron Hicks is sent to the minor leagues, Schafer gets a lot more playing time. The 28 year old was DFA'd last year after hitting just .163 in 80 at bats over 63 games for Atlanta. The Twins swooped in and claimed him. He was given regular playing time and showed what he could do. He hit .285/.345/.362 (.707) with seven extra base hits. The speedster combined to steal 30 bases over the course of the season. Schafer would be the primary starter. As a left-handed hitter, there would likely be a right-hand hitting option to play centerfield against southpaws. This offseason, the Twins signed 30-year-old outfielder Shane Robinson to a minor league contract. In parts of five seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, he hit .231/.303/.308 in 452 plate appearances. The biggest tool that Schafer and Robinson have is their speed. Both play very good defense which will be important because of the perceived lack of range in the corners. There may not be much offense, but these two could play very solid defense in the outfield. Plan C: The Long-Shot 2014 was a rough season for Eddie Rosario. It began late due to a 50-game suspension for a second positive test for a drug of abuse. After eight games with the Miracle, he was quickly moved up to New Britain. He hit just .243/.286/.387 (.674) with 20 doubles, three homers and eight RBI with the Rock Cats. However, he was sent back to the Arizona Fall League and was one of the league’s best hitters. He hit .330 with four doubles and two triples. He had four hits including a home run in the AFL championship game. He played left field most of the season, but he is fully capable of playing center field. If Hicks struggles in spring training, and Rosario tears it up and looks and acts ready, this could happen. As mentioned in this section's header, it would be a long shot, but it is worth watching. Plan D: The Fall Back Plan If the Twins coaches, manager and front office feel that what is best for Aaron Hicks (and Eddie Rosario) is to go back to the minor leagues, and the Twins aren’t comfortable with giving regular at bats to Jordan Schafer, there is one other plan. If the team wants to start the season with their best lineup (and they don’t feel that Hicks gives them that right away), we could see Danny Santana return to centerfield with Eduardo Escobar remaining the primary shortstop. Although he had played very little outfield in the minor leagues, Danny Santana came up with the Twins and ended up playing doing an adequate job in the outfield and hit far better than his minor league track record indicated that he should have. At the same time, Eduardo Escobar put together a very solid season. In 133 total games, he hit .275/.315/.406 (.721) with 37 doubles, a triple and a home run. He played very good defense as well, something that isn’t certain with Santana. Escobar has been basically pigeon-holed into the idea that he is “just” a utility infielder. Obviously that role is very important to a team, and yet we forget that he just turned 26 years old. He could possibly be a legit starting shortstop in the big leagues. Center field will be a center of attention throughout spring training. It is an important position defensively, and any offense will be a bonus from the position. Byron Buxton needs more time to shake off the rust from last season and perform in the upper levels of the minor leagues. He could be up by July, or it could be in 2016. So the questions for you are: 1.) What do you think should happen at the position? 2.) What do you think will happen at the position? Click here to view the article
  6. We know that Torii Hunter will be starting in right field. Oswaldo Arcia will make the move over to left field, but centerfield remains a question. The Twins did not address the position in the offseason, at least not in a big, obvious way. This leads me to what I believe to be Plan A. Plan A: Third Time’s The Charm I am of the belief that the Twins brass wants Aaron Hicks to have a strong spring training and take the reins on the starting job. That’s what he did in 2013. In 2014, he beat out Alex Presley for the starting centerfield job. In fact, the Twins DFA'd Presley near the end of spring training, meaning that there really wasn’t a backup plan for 2014. In fact, when Hicks was sent back to the minor leagues, the Twins tried Eduardo Escobar in centerfield for a game before the job was given to Danny Santana, who ran with it. Hicks will be just 25 years old throughout the 2014 season. That isn’t necessarily young, but I wonder if some think he might be older after being given the opportunity the last two seasons. He has never been a great hitter in the minor leagues, but in a good year, he can fill a stat sheet. He has all the tools to be good. Even in a poor 2014 season, he posted a .341 on-base percentage. It’s possible, so the team does have to have a Plan B, too. Plan B: Fourth Outfielder Platoon Jordan Schafer is going to be on the roster. If Aaron Hicks is the starter, Schafer is the fourth outfielder. If Aaron Hicks is sent to the minor leagues, Schafer gets a lot more playing time. The 28 year old was DFA'd last year after hitting just .163 in 80 at bats over 63 games for Atlanta. The Twins swooped in and claimed him. He was given regular playing time and showed what he could do. He hit .285/.345/.362 (.707) with seven extra base hits. The speedster combined to steal 30 bases over the course of the season. Schafer would be the primary starter. As a left-handed hitter, there would likely be a right-hand hitting option to play centerfield against southpaws. This offseason, the Twins signed 30-year-old outfielder Shane Robinson to a minor league contract. In parts of five seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, he hit .231/.303/.308 in 452 plate appearances. The biggest tool that Schafer and Robinson have is their speed. Both play very good defense which will be important because of the perceived lack of range in the corners. There may not be much offense, but these two could play very solid defense in the outfield. Plan C: The Long-Shot 2014 was a rough season for Eddie Rosario. It began late due to a 50-game suspension for a second positive test for a drug of abuse. After eight games with the Miracle, he was quickly moved up to New Britain. He hit just .243/.286/.387 (.674) with 20 doubles, three homers and eight RBI with the Rock Cats. However, he was sent back to the Arizona Fall League and was one of the league’s best hitters. He hit .330 with four doubles and two triples. He had four hits including a home run in the AFL championship game. He played left field most of the season, but he is fully capable of playing center field. If Hicks struggles in spring training, and Rosario tears it up and looks and acts ready, this could happen. As mentioned in this section's header, it would be a long shot, but it is worth watching. Plan D: The Fall Back Plan If the Twins coaches, manager and front office feel that what is best for Aaron Hicks (and Eddie Rosario) is to go back to the minor leagues, and the Twins aren’t comfortable with giving regular at bats to Jordan Schafer, there is one other plan. If the team wants to start the season with their best lineup (and they don’t feel that Hicks gives them that right away), we could see Danny Santana return to centerfield with Eduardo Escobar remaining the primary shortstop. Although he had played very little outfield in the minor leagues, Danny Santana came up with the Twins and ended up playing doing an adequate job in the outfield and hit far better than his minor league track record indicated that he should have. At the same time, Eduardo Escobar put together a very solid season. In 133 total games, he hit .275/.315/.406 (.721) with 37 doubles, a triple and a home run. He played very good defense as well, something that isn’t certain with Santana. Escobar has been basically pigeon-holed into the idea that he is “just” a utility infielder. Obviously that role is very important to a team, and yet we forget that he just turned 26 years old. He could possibly be a legit starting shortstop in the big leagues. Center field will be a center of attention throughout spring training. It is an important position defensively, and any offense will be a bonus from the position. Byron Buxton needs more time to shake off the rust from last season and perform in the upper levels of the minor leagues. He could be up by July, or it could be in 2016. So the questions for you are: 1.) What do you think should happen at the position? 2.) What do you think will happen at the position?
  7. When it comes to arbitration, there are ways to guess and predict where the values will come in. It is based on career numbers to that point, but there can also be some attention placed on most recent performance. It will be interesting to see if baseball's increased revenues will have any impact on the arbitration decisions. Will players get a 10% bump over historical data just because of the revenues? When we hear that the team and the player file arbitration numbers, a lot of thought and statistical analysis goes into those numbers. The team can’t just lowball the player because it makes reaching an agreement less likely, and it makes it more likely that an arbiter would rule for the player. The same goes the other way. A player can’t just put a $10 million filing number out there if he’s likely worth $2 million because there’s no way the judge would rule for the player. It’s a tough slope. Here are my thoughts or projections for the week. Get your predictions into the comments section below and we'll see what happens over the next four days. TREVOR PLOUFFE – 2nd Year of Arbitration The third baseman had a very good 2014 season. He made $2.35 million in his first year of arbitration and should nearly double that amount. Should it get to Friday, I would expect Plouffe to ask for around $5.2 million while the Twins would likely counter around $4.5 million. In the end, the midpoint would be about $4.85 million. Plouffe could be a candidate for an extension, either four or five years, or maybe a shorter-term deal like two years. BRIAN DUENSING – 3rd Year of Arbitration Duensing is in his third and final year of arbitration. He received $2 million in 2014. I think that the Twins will offer him a raise to around $2.3 million while Duensing’s representation will likely counter with a number around $2.9 million. In the end, I can see them settling near the midpoint at about $2.6 million. JORDAN SCHAFER – 2nd Year of Arbitration A year ago, the Braves paid Schafer $1.09 million to be an extra outfielder on their roster. He rarely played more than just as a pinch runner and didn’t hit in his limited opportunity. After the Twins traded Sam Fuld and Schafer was DFA'd by the Braves, it only made sense for the Twins to give an opportunity to the former top prospect. He played well the final couple of months for the Twins. He will likely get a small raise. I think his representatives will ask for $1.6 million. I can see the Twins offering $1.2 million. I can see the two sides getting creative. I can see them agreeing to a deal for about $1.3 million with several incentives based on playing time. In other words, if he ends up being the starter, he could make up to $200K more. If not, the midpoint is at $1.4 million. TOMMY MILONE – 1st Year of Arbitration Milone presents an interesting case. A look at his statistics say that he should make some serious money. Had he been in the A’s rotation all season, he could be looking at a $4 million payday. But instead, the A’s demoted him, warranted or not, and when he was traded to the Twins for Fuld, he remained in the minors for about a week. Once with the Twins, he was hurt and didn’t get a chance to increase his value. It’s also interesting because his 2015 role is uncertain. He could be the fifth starter. He could be a long reliever. He still has an option remaining. This is another situation where there could be some creativity. I can see Milone’s side filing a $3 million number while the Twins should file closer to $2.2 million. That puts the midpoint at $2.6 million. Could they reach an agreement for about $2.4 million with incentives for $200K for each ten-start interval? CASEY FIEN – 1st Year of Arbitration Fien had a fine 2014 season. He was one of the better set-up men until a rough September which made his numbers look not as impressive. He achieved Super-2 status this year so he could have four years of arbitration. There are a lot of relief pitchers each year who reach arbitration every year and the range of their contracts is all over the board, so it’s difficult to guess where he could fall in. I think that the high end would be about $2.2 million, so I would think that the Fien side would ask for about that amount. The Twins should counter north of $1.6 million because if it does go to arbitration, it’d be hard to imagine an arbiter siding with a number less than that. I think that the Twins would counter around $1.8 million. At the end of the day, the midpoint is $2 million and that feels about right. EDUARDO NUNEZ – 1st Year of Arbitration There are always several utility infielders who get to arbitration for the first time each year. The range for first year arbitration utility infielders is anywhere from about $750K to $1.4 million. I think that the Nunez camp will likely ask for around $1.2 million. I could see the Twins countering at about $800K. I think there could be an agreement just shy of the $1 million mark. As you can see, there is a range for where these six arbitration figures can put the Twins payroll. Be sure to check out Jeremy Nygaard’s Rosters & Payroll to keep updated on the Twins payroll.
  8. On Tuesday around Major League Baseball salary arbitration cases will be filed. On Friday, teams and players will exchange numbers. However, don’t be surprised if many of the arbitration-eligible players agree to terms before Friday. Six Twins players were offered arbitration last month, so here is a quick look at what to expect over the next few days.When it comes to arbitration, there are ways to guess and predict where the values will come in. It is based on career numbers to that point, but there can also be some attention placed on most recent performance. It will be interesting to see if baseball's increased revenues will have any impact on the arbitration decisions. Will players get a 10% bump over historical data just because of the revenues? When we hear that the team and the player file arbitration numbers, a lot of thought and statistical analysis goes into those numbers. The team can’t just lowball the player because it makes reaching an agreement less likely, and it makes it more likely that an arbiter would rule for the player. The same goes the other way. A player can’t just put a $10 million filing number out there if he’s likely worth $2 million because there’s no way the judge would rule for the player. It’s a tough slope. Here are my thoughts or projections for the week. Get your predictions into the comments section below and we'll see what happens over the next four days. TREVOR PLOUFFE – 2nd Year of Arbitration The third baseman had a very good 2014 season. He made $2.35 million in his first year of arbitration and should nearly double that amount. Should it get to Friday, I would expect Plouffe to ask for around $5.2 million while the Twins would likely counter around $4.5 million. In the end, the midpoint would be about $4.85 million. Plouffe could be a candidate for an extension, either four or five years, or maybe a shorter-term deal like two years. BRIAN DUENSING – 3rd Year of Arbitration Duensing is in his third and final year of arbitration. He received $2 million in 2014. I think that the Twins will offer him a raise to around $2.3 million while Duensing’s representation will likely counter with a number around $2.9 million. In the end, I can see them settling near the midpoint at about $2.6 million. JORDAN SCHAFER – 2nd Year of Arbitration A year ago, the Braves paid Schafer $1.09 million to be an extra outfielder on their roster. He rarely played more than just as a pinch runner and didn’t hit in his limited opportunity. After the Twins traded Sam Fuld and Schafer was DFA'd by the Braves, it only made sense for the Twins to give an opportunity to the former top prospect. He played well the final couple of months for the Twins. He will likely get a small raise. I think his representatives will ask for $1.6 million. I can see the Twins offering $1.2 million. I can see the two sides getting creative. I can see them agreeing to a deal for about $1.3 million with several incentives based on playing time. In other words, if he ends up being the starter, he could make up to $200K more. If not, the midpoint is at $1.4 million. TOMMY MILONE – 1st Year of Arbitration Milone presents an interesting case. A look at his statistics say that he should make some serious money. Had he been in the A’s rotation all season, he could be looking at a $4 million payday. But instead, the A’s demoted him, warranted or not, and when he was traded to the Twins for Fuld, he remained in the minors for about a week. Once with the Twins, he was hurt and didn’t get a chance to increase his value. It’s also interesting because his 2015 role is uncertain. He could be the fifth starter. He could be a long reliever. He still has an option remaining. This is another situation where there could be some creativity. I can see Milone’s side filing a $3 million number while the Twins should file closer to $2.2 million. That puts the midpoint at $2.6 million. Could they reach an agreement for about $2.4 million with incentives for $200K for each ten-start interval? CASEY FIEN – 1st Year of Arbitration Fien had a fine 2014 season. He was one of the better set-up men until a rough September which made his numbers look not as impressive. He achieved Super-2 status this year so he could have four years of arbitration. There are a lot of relief pitchers each year who reach arbitration every year and the range of their contracts is all over the board, so it’s difficult to guess where he could fall in. I think that the high end would be about $2.2 million, so I would think that the Fien side would ask for about that amount. The Twins should counter north of $1.6 million because if it does go to arbitration, it’d be hard to imagine an arbiter siding with a number less than that. I think that the Twins would counter around $1.8 million. At the end of the day, the midpoint is $2 million and that feels about right. EDUARDO NUNEZ – 1st Year of Arbitration There are always several utility infielders who get to arbitration for the first time each year. The range for first year arbitration utility infielders is anywhere from about $750K to $1.4 million. I think that the Nunez camp will likely ask for around $1.2 million. I could see the Twins countering at about $800K. I think there could be an agreement just shy of the $1 million mark. As you can see, there is a range for where these six arbitration figures can put the Twins payroll. Be sure to check out Jeremy Nygaard’s Rosters & Payroll to keep updated on the Twins payroll. Click here to view the article
  9. TD Member Boom Boom: Should the Twins look to bring in a CF, or should they stand pat with Hicks and/or Schafer? I'd be fine rolling with those two. Hopefully Paul Molitor is open to the idea of platooning, because using Hicks against lefties and Schafer against righties would maximize both their strengths. Even then, that duo might not be anything special offensively, but they'll provide solid defense at least, and Byron Buxton might only be a year away. Plus, maybe Hicks goes on a nice roll, regains confidence in swinging from both sides and turns into an everyday player. With his patience and defensive prowess, he only needs to hit a little bit to be a valuable starter. I haven't given up on him by any means. TD Member gunnarthor: Assuming there isn't a spot in the rotation for him right away, should Meyer pitch in the pen or as a starter in AAA? Bullpen. Send him on the Francisco Liriano and Johan Santana path. He can get his first taste of big-league hitters by unleashing his best stuff during short stints, then once someone inevitably gets hurt or needs to be replaced, the Twins can stretch him out and let him step in. There's a lot of benefit to keeping Meyer's innings in check early in the season, since he'll be on a workload limit once again. TD Member goulik: What type of influence do you see Hunter having on Hicks developing into the outfielder he should have become by now and also on Buxton? Has he ever been given credit with mentoring younger players or are we expecting too much from that part of this signing? Hunter has a well known rep in that department. He's been credited with helping mentor Mike Trout into the big leagues, and that's a pretty nice notch in the belt. I don't think he's going to directly affect how they play -- he can't teach Hicks to hit left-handed or Buxton to stay healthy -- but if Hunter can make a highly stressful environment a little more comfortable and manageable for them, there's value in that. TD Member Bark's Lounge: What's the deal with Ricky Nolasco? Did he hide his arm injury last season? Is he a subversive type of player? I don't put too much into his semi-controversial comment on Twitter, but when we throw all of this material into the whole enchilada, did the Twins make a grave mistake in signing him or is there still reason to believe he can be a part of the solution and we can continue to toss pennies and nickles into the Ricky Nolasco Wishing Well? There was a combination of factors at play. He was facing tougher lineups with designated hitters. He endured some bad luck, finishing with a 4.30 FIP and 3.97 xFIP that belied his bloated ERA. And yeah, he was probably pitching through some pain. He's now had a full season to acclimate to playing here, and an offseason to rest up and get himself right physically. I'm confident he'll have a much better year. If he doesn't, it'd put the Twins in a pretty tough position. TD Member jay: With the addition of a corner outfielder and a starting pitcher so far this offseason, what's the biggest remaining need? How should they address that need? To be honest, I don't see much left to cover. You could make a case for a stopgap in center field, but as mentioned above, that can be covered internally. The rotation is full and the starting lineup is set. They've got a good utility guy in Eduardo Escobar and a backup catcher in Josmil Pinto (I guess?). The bullpen might be facing a squeeze, if anything. TD Member TRex: What are the best and worst case scenarios for Mike Pelfrey this year, and what percentages would you put on each. Best case, he goes to the bullpen, ratchets up the heater and becomes a potent late-inning weapon. Worst case, he's a sub-mediocre "innings-eater" in the rotation, blocking a younger player from gaining experience. It's really hard to see how he benefits the Twins as a starter at this point. @MrNewBrighton on Twitter Not going to ask about pitching, lets talk homers. Who leads #MNTwins in home runs in 2015? How many? #IGotArciaW/33 Oswaldo Arcia would be the odds-on favorite, I think. Brian Dozier and Kennys Vargas are also candidates. But I'm going to go with Trevor Plouffe. @CreaAlex on Twitter does JR Graham stick the whole season? #TDMailbag It's more likely that they work out a trade to keep him in the minors if they like what they see. I don't know how you take a guy who hasn't pitched above Double-A, and has barely pitched in relief, and throw him in a major-league bullpen. TD Member OTwins: Terry Ryan has mentioned adding to the bullpen. Which reliever of the remaining free agents would be of interest? Or do you think they wait for a "good deal" I don't see a need to add to the bullpen from outside. They've got a good core in place with Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar. Meyer and Pelfrey could both slot in as hard-throwing righties. Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter, Ryan Pressly and Lester Oliveros are all prospects who pitched well in the minors and got a taste of the majors this past season. Nick Burdi should be ready very soon and might be better than any of them. I say roll with what's on hand. TD Member clutchhittin18: What is the long term plan for Pinto? With Mauer manning first base, and assuming Vargas continues to hit well, he seems to be the odd man out. And with a couple solid catchers a year or two away, do the Twins try to move him? Pinto's bat is MLB-ready, and it was a year ago, which the Twins basically acknowledged by bringing him north at the end of camp. There's no path to regular playing time for him here though. I guess they now view him as Suzuki's backup, but as an offense-oriented guy he's certainly not a prototypical No. 2 catcher for this team. I've got to think they're shopping him. @reinersandassoc on Twitter 2015 opening day lineup? I'll go with: Santana, SS Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Vargas, DH Hunter, RF Arcia, LF Plouffe, 3B Suzuki, C Hicks, CF Not too shabby, really.
  10. Earlier this week we put out a call on the forum and on Twitter for mailbag questions. You guys came through in a major way. So many great submissions. We've grabbed a bunch of them to feature below. Let's get to it:TD Member Boom Boom: Should the Twins look to bring in a CF, or should they stand pat with Hicks and/or Schafer? I'd be fine rolling with those two. Hopefully Paul Molitor is open to the idea of platooning, because using Hicks against lefties and Schafer against righties would maximize both their strengths. Even then, that duo might not be anything special offensively, but they'll provide solid defense at least, and Byron Buxton might only be a year away. Plus, maybe Hicks goes on a nice roll, regains confidence in swinging from both sides and turns into an everyday player. With his patience and defensive prowess, he only needs to hit a little bit to be a valuable starter. I haven't given up on him by any means. TD Member gunnarthor: Assuming there isn't a spot in the rotation for him right away, should Meyer pitch in the pen or as a starter in AAA? Bullpen. Send him on the Francisco Liriano and Johan Santana path. He can get his first taste of big-league hitters by unleashing his best stuff during short stints, then once someone inevitably gets hurt or needs to be replaced, the Twins can stretch him out and let him step in. There's a lot of benefit to keeping Meyer's innings in check early in the season, since he'll be on a workload limit once again. TD Member goulik: What type of influence do you see Hunter having on Hicks developing into the outfielder he should have become by now and also on Buxton? Has he ever been given credit with mentoring younger players or are we expecting too much from that part of this signing? Hunter has a well known rep in that department. He's been credited with helping mentor Mike Trout into the big leagues, and that's a pretty nice notch in the belt. I don't think he's going to directly affect how they play -- he can't teach Hicks to hit left-handed or Buxton to stay healthy -- but if Hunter can make a highly stressful environment a little more comfortable and manageable for them, there's value in that. TD Member Bark's Lounge: What's the deal with Ricky Nolasco? Did he hide his arm injury last season? Is he a subversive type of player? I don't put too much into his semi-controversial comment on Twitter, but when we throw all of this material into the whole enchilada, did the Twins make a grave mistake in signing him or is there still reason to believe he can be a part of the solution and we can continue to toss pennies and nickles into the Ricky Nolasco Wishing Well? There was a combination of factors at play. He was facing tougher lineups with designated hitters. He endured some bad luck, finishing with a 4.30 FIP and 3.97 xFIP that belied his bloated ERA. And yeah, he was probably pitching through some pain. He's now had a full season to acclimate to playing here, and an offseason to rest up and get himself right physically. I'm confident he'll have a much better year. If he doesn't, it'd put the Twins in a pretty tough position. TD Member jay: With the addition of a corner outfielder and a starting pitcher so far this offseason, what's the biggest remaining need? How should they address that need? To be honest, I don't see much left to cover. You could make a case for a stopgap in center field, but as mentioned above, that can be covered internally. The rotation is full and the starting lineup is set. They've got a good utility guy in Eduardo Escobar and a backup catcher in Josmil Pinto (I guess?). The bullpen might be facing a squeeze, if anything. TD Member TRex: What are the best and worst case scenarios for Mike Pelfrey this year, and what percentages would you put on each. Best case, he goes to the bullpen, ratchets up the heater and becomes a potent late-inning weapon. Worst case, he's a sub-mediocre "innings-eater" in the rotation, blocking a younger player from gaining experience. It's really hard to see how he benefits the Twins as a starter at this point. @MrNewBrighton on Twitter Not going to ask about pitching, lets talk homers. Who leads #MNTwins in home runs in 2015? How many? #IGotArciaW/33 Oswaldo Arcia would be the odds-on favorite, I think. Brian Dozier and Kennys Vargas are also candidates. But I'm going to go with Trevor Plouffe. @CreaAlex on Twitter does JR Graham stick the whole season? #TDMailbag It's more likely that they work out a trade to keep him in the minors if they like what they see. I don't know how you take a guy who hasn't pitched above Double-A, and has barely pitched in relief, and throw him in a major-league bullpen. TD Member OTwins: Terry Ryan has mentioned adding to the bullpen. Which reliever of the remaining free agents would be of interest? Or do you think they wait for a "good deal" I don't see a need to add to the bullpen from outside. They've got a good core in place with Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar. Meyer and Pelfrey could both slot in as hard-throwing righties. Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter, Ryan Pressly and Lester Oliveros are all prospects who pitched well in the minors and got a taste of the majors this past season. Nick Burdi should be ready very soon and might be better than any of them. I say roll with what's on hand. TD Member clutchhittin18: What is the long term plan for Pinto? With Mauer manning first base, and assuming Vargas continues to hit well, he seems to be the odd man out. And with a couple solid catchers a year or two away, do the Twins try to move him? Pinto's bat is MLB-ready, and it was a year ago, which the Twins basically acknowledged by bringing him north at the end of camp. There's no path to regular playing time for him here though. I guess they now view him as Suzuki's backup, but as an offense-oriented guy he's certainly not a prototypical No. 2 catcher for this team. I've got to think they're shopping him. @reinersandassoc on Twitter 2015 opening day lineup? I'll go with: Santana, SS Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Vargas, DH Hunter, RF Arcia, LF Plouffe, 3B Suzuki, C Hicks, CF Not too shabby, really. Click here to view the article
  11. It's been a slow offseason thus far, with little Twins-related news outside of coaching hires and procedural roster moves, but an important date falls on Tuesday, which marks the deadline for MLB clubs to offer 2015 contracts to unsigned players. That means that the Twins will need to make decisions on all of their arbitration-eligible players.They already made their call on one of those players, when they announced last week that they had outrighted right-hander Anthony Swarzak from the 40-man roster, effectively making him a free agent. I always felt that Swarzak was somewhat undervalued, because although he was unspectacular, he was pretty solid as a long reliever thanks to his durable arm and his consistent ability to come in and throw strikes for multiple innings. There was nothing glamorous about his role -- he was usually called on to simply soak up innings in an eventual loss following a short start -- but since 2012 Swarzak has ranked second among all MLB relievers in innings pitched, and he has a career 3.66 ERA out of the bullpen. Having said all that, Swarzak's job is not one you want to pay much more than the minimum to cover, and the Twins have plenty of other players that they could utilize or evaluate in that role. Ultimately, the team decided to go in a new direction. Might they make the same choice with some of their other arbitration-eligible players? Let's go through them on a case-by-case basis (contract estimates from the Offseason Handbook): Trevor Plouffe, 3B Estimated Salary: $5M That estimate might be a little on the high side (MLB Trade Rumors predicted $4.3 million) but Plouffe will be in line for a hefty raise in his second go at arbitration. This year he made $2.35 million and set career highs in several categories, including plate appearances, doubles, RBI and OPS+. Retaining him is a no-brainer, though I think it's best to stay year-to-year with him for now rather than looking at a long-term extension. Stay or Go: Stay Brian Duensing, LHP Estimated Salary: $3.5M This is Duensing's third turn at arbitration. Last year he got a $700K raise up to $2 million and this time he'll probably be in line for a larger increase, since he posted an improved ERA and WHIP with a similar workload. The lefty-stifling Duensing is what he is at this point: very adequate in a role that is not hard to fill for less $3 million. Since the money isn't that big of a deal, what it really comes down to is whether the Twins have another lefty reliever they trust outside of Caleb Thielbar. I'd guess they can find one. Stay or Go: Go Tommy Milone, LHP Estimated Salary: $2.5M This might be the trickiest arbitration decision the Twins face. On the one hand, here's an established big-league starter who's only 27 with a 3.98 career ERA. On the other hand, he's never been anything special, and he was terrible after coming to Minnesota, and you could argue that the Twins have at least six guys who should be in line for starts ahead of him. I think he's tendered, but hopefully his elevated pay doesn't influence whether or not he makes the roster next spring. Stay or Go: Stay Casey Fien, RHP Estimated Salary: $2M Though he wasn't quite as good in 2014 as he was in his breakout 2013 season, Fien was plenty valuable as a late-inning reliever. With Jared Burton and Swarzak gone, he's suddenly the most experienced righty in the bullpen. He'll be back. Stay or Go: Stay Jordan Schafer, OF Estimated Salary: $1.6M When he was acquired off waivers in August after being cut by the Braves with a .468 OPS, I figured Schafer's chances of sticking with the Twins for any significant length of time were low. But, in an admittedly short 40-game stretch, the 27-year-old played some of the best ball of his big-league career here in Minnesota, looking every bit the part of at least a quality fourth outfielder. Even if you don't expect him to keep up at that rate (and you shouldn't), he's young and he's got all the requisite skills to be worth keeping around, especially with the Twins' outlook in the outfield clouded by delayed prospect arrivals. Stay or Go: Stay Eduardo Nunez, IF/OF Estimated Salary: $1M This should be an easy decision. Although he offered some positional flexibility after coming over in a trade from the Yankees, appearing all over the field, Nunez was quite bad both offensively and defensively. His job should go to an internal candidate with some upside, or a new pickup who brings more to the table. Stay or Go: Go Click here to view the article
  12. They already made their call on one of those players, when they announced last week that they had outrighted right-hander Anthony Swarzak from the 40-man roster, effectively making him a free agent. I always felt that Swarzak was somewhat undervalued, because although he was unspectacular, he was pretty solid as a long reliever thanks to his durable arm and his consistent ability to come in and throw strikes for multiple innings. There was nothing glamorous about his role -- he was usually called on to simply soak up innings in an eventual loss following a short start -- but since 2012 Swarzak has ranked second among all MLB relievers in innings pitched, and he has a career 3.66 ERA out of the bullpen. Having said all that, Swarzak's job is not one you want to pay much more than the minimum to cover, and the Twins have plenty of other players that they could utilize or evaluate in that role. Ultimately, the team decided to go in a new direction. Might they make the same choice with some of their other arbitration-eligible players? Let's go through them on a case-by-case basis (contract estimates from the Offseason Handbook): Trevor Plouffe, 3B Estimated Salary: $5M That estimate might be a little on the high side (MLB Trade Rumors predicted $4.3 million) but Plouffe will be in line for a hefty raise in his second go at arbitration. This year he made $2.35 million and set career highs in several categories, including plate appearances, doubles, RBI and OPS+. Retaining him is a no-brainer, though I think it's best to stay year-to-year with him for now rather than looking at a long-term extension. Stay or Go: Stay Brian Duensing, LHP Estimated Salary: $3.5M This is Duensing's third turn at arbitration. Last year he got a $700K raise up to $2 million and this time he'll probably be in line for a larger increase, since he posted an improved ERA and WHIP with a similar workload. The lefty-stifling Duensing is what he is at this point: very adequate in a role that is not hard to fill for less $3 million. Since the money isn't that big of a deal, what it really comes down to is whether the Twins have another lefty reliever they trust outside of Caleb Thielbar. I'd guess they can find one. Stay or Go: Go Tommy Milone, LHP Estimated Salary: $2.5M This might be the trickiest arbitration decision the Twins face. On the one hand, here's an established big-league starter who's only 27 with a 3.98 career ERA. On the other hand, he's never been anything special, and he was terrible after coming to Minnesota, and you could argue that the Twins have at least six guys who should be in line for starts ahead of him. I think he's tendered, but hopefully his elevated pay doesn't influence whether or not he makes the roster next spring. Stay or Go: Stay Casey Fien, RHP Estimated Salary: $2M Though he wasn't quite as good in 2014 as he was in his breakout 2013 season, Fien was plenty valuable as a late-inning reliever. With Jared Burton and Swarzak gone, he's suddenly the most experienced righty in the bullpen. He'll be back. Stay or Go: Stay Jordan Schafer, OF Estimated Salary: $1.6M When he was acquired off waivers in August after being cut by the Braves with a .468 OPS, I figured Schafer's chances of sticking with the Twins for any significant length of time were low. But, in an admittedly short 40-game stretch, the 27-year-old played some of the best ball of his big-league career here in Minnesota, looking every bit the part of at least a quality fourth outfielder. Even if you don't expect him to keep up at that rate (and you shouldn't), he's young and he's got all the requisite skills to be worth keeping around, especially with the Twins' outlook in the outfield clouded by delayed prospect arrivals. Stay or Go: Stay Eduardo Nunez, IF/OF Estimated Salary: $1M This should be an easy decision. Although he offered some positional flexibility after coming over in a trade from the Yankees, appearing all over the field, Nunez was quite bad both offensively and defensively. His job should go to an internal candidate with some upside, or a new pickup who brings more to the table. Stay or Go: Go
  13. Jordan Schafer is at his 4th stop having moved from Atlanta to Houston to Atlanta prior to being claimed by Minnesota. He enters next season as a 28 year old with a significant 1398 plate appearances. Is there a chance that the once highly rated prospect can turn it around at age 28? Has it happened before?I used Baseball Reference's play index seeking an answer. I wanted a group of outfielders that had a similar number of plate appearances and performances through age 27. A group where Schafer sits somewhere near the middle according to career OPS+ and plate appearances. It turns out pretty rare for an outfielder to be given around 1400 plate appearances at Schafer's level of production. I had to go back to 1987 to find 11 comps. Several of the players listed above have characteristics in speed and ability that allowed them to play all three outfield spots. All had played for multiple teams. Their careers through age 27 were very similar to Schafer. What about after age 27 and their peak values? Brady Anderson!5 of the 11 had careers with at least 1000 more plate appearances.2 of the 11 performed better after age 27.I wondered if there was another Brady Anderson if I searched back further. I went back 50 years. We can add Boots Day, Tony Scott, Herm Winningham, Luis Melendez, Rick Bosetti, Marvell Wynne, Hector Cruz and George Wright. Not a Brady Anderson among them. It appears that almost all outfielders by age 28 and 1200+ plate appearances have established their skill level. What do the Twins do with Schafer? Should they tender him a contract and go to arbitration? Do they plan for him to be on the 25 roster next year, or do they look elsewhere? Click here to view the article
  14. I used Baseball Reference's play index seeking an answer. I wanted a group of outfielders that had a similar number of plate appearances and performances through age 27. A group where Schafer sits somewhere near the middle according to career OPS+ and plate appearances. It turns out pretty rare for an outfielder to be given around 1400 plate appearances at Schafer's level of production. I had to go back to 1987 to find 11 comps. Several of the players listed above have characteristics in speed and ability that allowed them to play all three outfield spots. All had played for multiple teams. Their careers through age 27 were very similar to Schafer. What about after age 27 and their peak values? Brady Anderson! 5 of the 11 had careers with at least 1000 more plate appearances. 2 of the 11 performed better after age 27. I wondered if there was another Brady Anderson if I searched back further. I went back 50 years. We can add Boots Day, Tony Scott, Herm Winningham, Luis Melendez, Rick Bosetti, Marvell Wynne, Hector Cruz and George Wright. Not a Brady Anderson among them. It appears that almost all outfielders by age 28 and 1200+ plate appearances have established their skill level. What do the Twins do with Schafer? Should they tender him a contract and go to arbitration? Do they plan for him to be on the 25 roster next year, or do they look elsewhere?
  15. I went on Fangraphs and looked at all the Twins hitters who have compiled 100 or more PA this year. This amounts to 18 players, four of whom are not with the Twins in any capacity and one of whom is currently in the minor leagues. I looked at wOBA, wRC+, and WAR, since I think those three stats do the best job of describing a player's total value. Since WAR is not a rate stat, I calculated what each player's WAR would be in 500 plate appearances. This probably isn't the best measurement, but it will serve my purpose. I have ranked the players based on wOBA, since I feel this statistic is the best description of a player's value. I have included each player's wOBA, wRC+, and WAR/500PA in parentheses. I've also supplied their ages, when they are eligible for arbitration, if applicable, and when they are eligible for free agency, per Baseball-Reference. Danny Santana (.364/134/3.1) Age: 23 (2017/2020) Kennys Vargas (.356/128/2.0) Age: 24 (2017/2020) Jordan Schafer (.354/127/6.2) Age: 28 (Current/2017) Brian Dozier (.342/119/3.5) Age: 27 (2016/2019) Josmil Pinto (.341/118/1.2) Age: 25 (2017/2020) Josh Willingham (.328/109/1.4) Age: 35( FA 2015) Trevor Plouffe (.328/108/3.0) Age: 28 (Current/2018) Sam Fuld (.327/108/3.9) Age: 32 (Current/2017) Kurt Suzuki (.327/108/2.0) Age: 30 (FA 2017) Joe Mauer (.321/104/1.6) Age: 31 (FA 2019) Oswaldo Arcia (.317/101/1.0) Age: 23 (2017/2020) Eduardo Escobar (.315/100/2.4) Age: 25 (2015/2019) Chris Parmelee (.304/92/-0.2) Age: 26 (2016/2019) Eduardo Nunez (.304/92/1.6) Age: 27 (2015/2018) Chris Colabello (.293/84/-2.3) Age: 30 (2017/2020) Aaron Hicks (.288/81/-0.6) Age: 24 (2017/2020) Jason Kubel (.278/-1.1/-3.1) Age: 33 (No Contract) Kendrys Morales (.255/58/-0.8) Age: 31 (FA 2015) Well, I can say I'm happy we got rid of Kubel and Morales. Also I think Colabello may not be seen in a Twins uniform again. I feel sorry for him because I wanted him to become an incredible player, but baseball is a business. I'm going to break down,by position, the players still on the Twins roster to make for easy analysis. Outfielders: Is Schafer going to be a 6 WAR player? I seriously doubt it. But at 28, he isn't really that old and I think he has shown that he can be better than he was in Atlanta. I respect anybody who says that Schafer should be nothing more than a 4th OF, but by the numbers, he's been our best outfielder this year. So even if there is regression, he has to be legitimately discussed as a starting option. I hope Arcia figures it out, but it's been frustrating to watch him this year. Every time he seems to figure something out I feel like he regresses right away. I think if Arcia can't figure out how to hit more consistently he's going to be in major trouble. It is excusable to play a poor defender in right field, but only if they can out-hit their defensive woes, and I just haven't seen enough of that from Arcia. I think Hicks deserves another chance, but I think he's on thin ice. I'm actually much more sold on Schafer than Hicks right now, and Schafer is only 4 years older. Especially with Buxton in the minors, I think Hicks needs to perform very well next year if he ever wants to make an impact for the Twins. I think it's time to give up on Parmelee. I always wanted him to succeed, but I just don't see anything to indicate he will outplay his current numbers. Infielders: A note for Twins management: I'm considering Santana and Nunez as infielders regardless of what your lineups and rosters say. Until somebody invents a stat for expected regression rate, Danny Santana is the man. He is exactly the type of player who should hit on top of the Twins lineup (or any lineup for that matter). Put him at short, where his defensive rating will increase even if they are still slightly below average, and we could be looking at a darn good player here. Of course, if Danny Santana is our shortstop, what does that mean for Escobar? I have been a huge Escobar fan all year and think he has done nothing to justify the loss of his job, but as the title indicates, I'm going by the numbers. Offensively, Escobar has been average. Now, for a shortstop, average is good, especially when 2.4 WAR would be generated in 500 PA, but Santana is simply better. Unfortunately, so is Plouffe and so is Dozier. I think Escobar is too good to be a bench player, but the Twins infield, weirdly enough, is actually very solid right now. Maybe this means he's trade bait. I can definitely see why Gardy plays Santana in the outfield, whether I agree or not. In terms of WAR/500 PA, there are three infielders better than Santana and only one outfielder. Nunez has actually turned out to be a pretty good bench player. C/1B/DH: Like Danny Santana, many people don't trust Vargas so sustain his numbers, but a .356 wOBA would look pretty dang good at the middle of any lineup. As we all would have thought, Pinto is a much better choice in terms of offense than Suzuki, but because of his defensive problems, he still rates lower in terms of WAR. He also doesn't have the bat to boot Vargas out of his spot. I like Pinto as a backup catcher, and he can DH on days Mauer has off, so I do think he can contribute to next year's Twins. He's been our 6th best hitter this year; he needs to be in the lineup. Mauer, I hope, can only get better. I have no problem with giving Arcia another shot, and I think Schafer has earned some playing time as well. Hicks should be in the mix, but it depends on how September goes. With Schafer and Hicks able to play center, it is not necessary that a FA signing be a center fielder, but I think that FA would need to be capable of solid defense at the corner spots. Other than that there really isn't much need for offense. I would be content if the Twins broke camp with these 13. Outfield: Schafer, Hicks, Arcia, Free Agent Signing Infield: Santana, Dozier, Plouffe, Escobar, Nunez C/1B/DH: Suzuki, Pinto, Mauer, Vargas Let me know your thoughts and thanks for reading!
  16. Let's face it, there isn't much left to talk about in terms of the Twins and their 2014 season. We know the story all too well at this point. Worst starting pitcher ERA in all of baseball, last place in the AL Central, can never seem to get a hit with runners on base, etc. This tired story has caused me, like many of you, to care way more about the future than the present. In this post, I am attempting to answer a simple question: Which players look OK to stick with in 2015 and which players could use a replacement, or at least some competition?I went on Fangraphs and looked at all the Twins hitters who have compiled 100 or more PA this year. This amounts to 18 players, four of whom are not with the Twins in any capacity and one of whom is currently in the minor leagues. I looked at wOBA, wRC+, and WAR, since I think those three stats do the best job of describing a player's total value. Since WAR is not a rate stat, I calculated what each player's WAR would be in 500 plate appearances. This probably isn't the best measurement, but it will serve my purpose. I have ranked the players based on wOBA, since I feel this statistic is the best description of a player's value. I have included each player's wOBA, wRC+, and WAR/500PA in parentheses. I've also supplied their ages, when they are eligible for arbitration, if applicable, and when they are eligible for free agency, per Baseball-Reference. Danny Santana (.364/134/3.1) Age: 23 (2017/2020)Kennys Vargas (.356/128/2.0) Age: 24 (2017/2020)Jordan Schafer (.354/127/6.2) Age: 28 (Current/2017)Brian Dozier (.342/119/3.5) Age: 27 (2016/2019)Josmil Pinto (.341/118/1.2) Age: 25 (2017/2020)Josh Willingham (.328/109/1.4) Age: 35( FA 2015)Trevor Plouffe (.328/108/3.0) Age: 28 (Current/2018)Sam Fuld (.327/108/3.9) Age: 32 (Current/2017)Kurt Suzuki (.327/108/2.0) Age: 30 (FA 2017)Joe Mauer (.321/104/1.6) Age: 31 (FA 2019)Oswaldo Arcia (.317/101/1.0) Age: 23 (2017/2020)Eduardo Escobar (.315/100/2.4) Age: 25 (2015/2019)Chris Parmelee (.304/92/-0.2) Age: 26 (2016/2019)Eduardo Nunez (.304/92/1.6) Age: 27 (2015/2018)Chris Colabello (.293/84/-2.3) Age: 30 (2017/2020)Aaron Hicks (.288/81/-0.6) Age: 24 (2017/2020)Jason Kubel (.278/-1.1/-3.1) Age: 33 (No Contract)Kendrys Morales (.255/58/-0.8) Age: 31 (FA 2015)Well, I can say I'm happy we got rid of Kubel and Morales. Also I think Colabello may not be seen in a Twins uniform again. I feel sorry for him because I wanted him to become an incredible player, but baseball is a business. I'm going to break down,by position, the players still on the Twins roster to make for easy analysis. Outfielders: Is Schafer going to be a 6 WAR player? I seriously doubt it. But at 28, he isn't really that old and I think he has shown that he can be better than he was in Atlanta. I respect anybody who says that Schafer should be nothing more than a 4th OF, but by the numbers, he's been our best outfielder this year. So even if there is regression, he has to be legitimately discussed as a starting option. I hope Arcia figures it out, but it's been frustrating to watch him this year. Every time he seems to figure something out I feel like he regresses right away. I think if Arcia can't figure out how to hit more consistently he's going to be in major trouble. It is excusable to play a poor defender in right field, but only if they can out-hit their defensive woes, and I just haven't seen enough of that from Arcia. I think Hicks deserves another chance, but I think he's on thin ice. I'm actually much more sold on Schafer than Hicks right now, and Schafer is only 4 years older. Especially with Buxton in the minors, I think Hicks needs to perform very well next year if he ever wants to make an impact for the Twins. I think it's time to give up on Parmelee. I always wanted him to succeed, but I just don't see anything to indicate he will outplay his current numbers. Infielders: A note for Twins management: I'm considering Santana and Nunez as infielders regardless of what your lineups and rosters say. Until somebody invents a stat for expected regression rate, Danny Santana is the man. He is exactly the type of player who should hit on top of the Twins lineup (or any lineup for that matter). Put him at short, where his defensive rating will increase even if they are still slightly below average, and we could be looking at a darn good player here. Of course, if Danny Santana is our shortstop, what does that mean for Escobar? I have been a huge Escobar fan all year and think he has done nothing to justify the loss of his job, but as the title indicates, I'm going by the numbers. Offensively, Escobar has been average. Now, for a shortstop, average is good, especially when 2.4 WAR would be generated in 500 PA, but Santana is simply better. Unfortunately, so is Plouffe and so is Dozier. I think Escobar is too good to be a bench player, but the Twins infield, weirdly enough, is actually very solid right now. Maybe this means he's trade bait. I can definitely see why Gardy plays Santana in the outfield, whether I agree or not. In terms of WAR/500 PA, there are three infielders better than Santana and only one outfielder. Nunez has actually turned out to be a pretty good bench player. C/1B/DH: Like Danny Santana, many people don't trust Vargas so sustain his numbers, but a .356 wOBA would look pretty dang good at the middle of any lineup. As we all would have thought, Pinto is a much better choice in terms of offense than Suzuki, but because of his defensive problems, he still rates lower in terms of WAR. He also doesn't have the bat to boot Vargas out of his spot. I like Pinto as a backup catcher, and he can DH on days Mauer has off, so I do think he can contribute to next year's Twins. He's been our 6th best hitter this year; he needs to be in the lineup. Mauer, I hope, can only get better. I have no problem with giving Arcia another shot, and I think Schafer has earned some playing time as well. Hicks should be in the mix, but it depends on how September goes. With Schafer and Hicks able to play center, it is not necessary that a FA signing be a center fielder, but I think that FA would need to be capable of solid defense at the corner spots. Other than that there really isn't much need for offense. I would be content if the Twins broke camp with these 13. Outfield: Schafer, Hicks, Arcia, Free Agent Signing Infield: Santana, Dozier, Plouffe, Escobar, Nunez C/1B/DH: Suzuki, Pinto, Mauer, Vargas Let me know your thoughts and thanks for reading! Click here to view the article
  17. There are plenty of scouts in the Braves, Astros and Twins organizations who would say they knew he was capable of this type of production. Once upon a time, Schafer was a top-50 prospect in the Braves system but that promise never came to fruition in two stints in Atlanta which sandwiched time in Houston as well. A vicious cycle of injuries and subsequent ineffectiveness contributed to the struggles over his big league career. In all, from 2009 until he was claimed by the Twins this season, Schafer put up a sad trombone line of .222/.307/.304 over 1,251 plate appearances. At 27, to begin the 2014 season, Schafer was back with his original organization and was hard-pressed to find a consistent role. He started just 14 of the 63 games he played in for the Braves. Offensively, his career hit a jagged rock bottom when he could not hit anything. Perhaps it was pressing to do too much in order to gain more playing time but Schafer’s swing rate increased exponentially as he offered at every other pitch regardless of where it may have been located. Is this stretch a breakout or a blip? With the sample size as miniscule as it is, it is easy to consider this streak one of those sample size flukes. There certainly is an element of that, no question. However, with the regular playing time Schafer has seemingly tightened up his wild swing --reducing his chase rate from 33% to 25%-- and increased his connectivity, dropping his swing-and-miss rate from 31% to 22%. What’s more, the contact is far better, as his line drive rate has jumped from 16% to 28%, as has his hard-hit average from .084 to .162. These marks show solid progress. When the Braves re-obtained the outfielder in 2013, Schafer confessed to falling into bad habits at the plate that dragged down his numbers. He was trying to pull the ball far too often and lost the ability to drive the ball up the middle and to the opposite field. Turning over when being pitched away resulted in ground-outs instead of base hits where he could showcase his blazing speed. He reached out to Braves’ hitting coach Greg Walker to help fix this. While he did show more ability to go the other way in 2013, a foul ball off his ankle led to a stress fracture that sidelined him for 31 days that year. Schafer did not return the same and it seemed the sound approach at the plate he had displayed before the injury had disappeared. Opposing teams in the National League exploited Schafer’s overzealous approach and targeted the outer half of the zone: According to ESPN/TruMedia, when being pitched on the outer-half (middle and away), Schafer pounded a vast majority of those into the ground, yanking almost 50% of those balls in play and predictably performed poorly, going 6-for-52, .115. Maybe it was because of regularly scheduled at-bats or a sweet nothing that Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky whispered in his ear, but after the Twins got their hooks into him, Schafer turned things around, particularly in this area. On pitches on the outer-half, Schafer has driven 60% of those to the middle of the field which has yielded plenty of hits (14-for-39, .359). As an example, here is a clip of Schafer versus Joba Chamberlain in which Schafer -- rather than turning over on the pitch -- stays behind the ball to intentionally drive the pitch to the spacious 5.5 hole where the third baseman is drawn in and the shortstop is playing at double-play depth. http://i.imgur.com/pBEpDSa.gif What does the future hold for Schafer and the Twins? After his performance against the Royals, manager Ron Gardenhire said that the organization is going to continue to feed him playing time for the rest of the year and see how he responds. “That’s what we’re trying to figure out here. We’re letting him play and giving him plenty of at bats and he’s responding and he’s doing well,” Gardenhire told reporters after the game, “You see him running the bases, he can fly -- he scored on that ball late in the game there. He was absolutely flying, I thought he had no chance to score. He has a lot of talent and we’re going to see how he does here the rest of the way for us. And we’ll to kind of figure out how he fits in this organization. We like the young man, he’s come over here and he’s shown some of his skills.” So we will see more of Schafer in September and the Twins will make an evaluation on what to do with him heading into 2015. He might not be a starter but he could be a very good contributor both defensively and offensively. The Minnesota Twins stomped on the Kansas City Royals, so Friday you can get 50% off a L or XL pizza at PapaJohns.com. Enjoy!
  18. The Minnesota Twins have claimed outfielder Jordan Schafer, according to LaVelle E. Neal from the Star Tribune (via twitter). In a tweet, Twins PR director Dustin Morse has confirmed. Schafer, at his best, can be a good replacement for the recently departed Sam Fuld, who was traded to the Oakland A's at the trade deadline. He was DFA'd last week by the Atlanta Braves.Schafer is just 27-years-old. He debuted with the Houston Astros in 2009. He has spent the 2013 and 2014 seasons with the Atlanta Braves. In 2013, he hit .247/.331/.346 (.677) with eight doubles, three triples and three home runs in 94 games for the Braves. He stole 22 bases. This year, he had just 93 plate appearances in 63 games for the Braves before being let go. He was hitting just .163, though he does have 15 stolen bases. He has been a top prospect in the game earlier in his career. He actually turned himself in for taking hGH and served a 50-game suspension. The Twins did well with Sam Fuld, and they are likely hoping that Schafer can provide outfield depth and speed for the remainder of the season. Chris Parmelee does not need to be the Twins backup centerfielder The Twins had 39 players on their 40 man roster, so the roster is again full. The team will need to send someone down to Rochester to make room on the 25-man roster. Click here to view the article
  19. Schafer is just 27-years-old. He debuted with the Houston Astros in 2009. He has spent the 2013 and 2014 seasons with the Atlanta Braves. In 2013, he hit .247/.331/.346 (.677) with eight doubles, three triples and three home runs in 94 games for the Braves. He stole 22 bases. This year, he had just 93 plate appearances in 63 games for the Braves before being let go. He was hitting just .163, though he does have 15 stolen bases. He has been a top prospect in the game earlier in his career. He actually turned himself in for taking hGH and served a 50-game suspension. The Twins did well with Sam Fuld, and they are likely hoping that Schafer can provide outfield depth and speed for the remainder of the season. Chris Parmelee does not need to be the Twins backup centerfielder The Twins had 39 players on their 40 man roster, so the roster is again full. The team will need to send someone down to Rochester to make room on the 25-man roster.
  20. Through his first 52 big-league games, Santana is hitting .325/.362/.497 with 21 extra-base hits and eight steals. Although his plate discipline hasn't been great -- he has struck out more than four times for every walk and has looked flat-out overmatched in some games -- his "hit" tool certainly looks legit. With another season heading down the tubes, the Twins needed a thriving young player they could point to as a sign of promising things to come. Santana has been that. The Twins needed a speedster that they could plug into the leadoff spot; a spark-plug type that could get on base, run around and disrupt. Santana has been that. He has also, surprisingly, filled another critical need that emerged early on for the Twins. Santana has made 29 of his 45 starts in center field, a position he played minimally in the minor leagues. The athletic Dominican hasn't looked bad in center, where his wheels and arm have been nice assets, but that's not his position of the future. And as much as he's helping the Twins by stepping in and excelling when called upon, he is at a critical point in his development and is hardly getting any reps at shortstop. Santana was already considered a raw defender at short, needing work and polish, and he's not getting the chance to refine his game while spending so much time in the outfield. Ideally, he would spend the majority of his time at his true position for the remainder of the season. But the who takes over center? With Sam Fuld gone, there are basically two choices. The New Guy The Twins snagged Fuld off waivers earlier this year and were able to find his replacement by the same method, claiming 27-year-old Jordan Schafer after he'd been designated for assignment by the Braves. Schafer emerged as a top-tier prospect five years ago, when he was putting up big numbers in the minors thanks to a potent power/speed combo. He has never been able to replicate that success in the big leagues, where he has a .222/.307/.304 hitting line in parts of five seasons. He's not likely to be a very productive hitter (he had a miserable .468 OPS in Atlanta before being cut) but there's some value in running him out there a bunch to get an idea of whether or not he might be worth keeping around next year as a fourth outfielder. Also, he's young enough, and inherently talented enough, that maybe with some regular at-bats you catch lightning in a bottle. It's unlikely, but not impossible. Of course, there's another guy on hand who could also be auditioned for a role next year... What About Aaron Hicks? Sent back to Double-A after another blown opportunity in the majors, Hicks toyed with the notion of giving up switch-hitting and appeared to be running low on confidence. Now, he's got his swag back. He is once again swinging from both sides, and swinging well. In 43 games with New Britain, Hicks is hitting .297/.404/.466. Over his last 10 contests he has a 1.122 OPS. He's taking walks and, more importantly, hitting the ball hard. I know the thought of sending Hicks directly from Double-A to MLB, again, makes some people squeamish. But I don't see a whole lot of benefit in sending him to Rochester. He needs to learn how to hit at the highest level. He needs to make the adjustments to have success against big-league pitching. Being that he's back in a groove, perhaps the time is right to let him try to make those adjustments in a fairly low-pressure environment. A good showing would make it a lot easier to pencil him into the 2015 blueprint, as opposed to a strong finish in the minors. Then again, the Twins could hardly be blamed for wanting to slow things down with Hicks, letting him finish out in the minors while getting increasingly acclimated to the outfield corners. What do you think? Who would you like to see as the regular center fielder the rest of the way, knowing that by this time next year, Byron Buxton might already be entrenched for the next decade?
  21. In a summer that's been marked by plenty of misfortune for the Twins, Danny Santana's shocking success has been hugely refreshing. The 23-year-old's stellar rookie season raged on over the weekend as he piled up eight hits in a pair of victories on Saturday and Sunday.Through his first 52 big-league games, Santana is hitting .325/.362/.497 with 21 extra-base hits and eight steals. Although his plate discipline hasn't been great -- he has struck out more than four times for every walk and has looked flat-out overmatched in some games -- his "hit" tool certainly looks legit. With another season heading down the tubes, the Twins needed a thriving young player they could point to as a sign of promising things to come. Santana has been that. The Twins needed a speedster that they could plug into the leadoff spot; a spark-plug type that could get on base, run around and disrupt. Santana has been that. He has also, surprisingly, filled another critical need that emerged early on for the Twins. Santana has made 29 of his 45 starts in center field, a position he played minimally in the minor leagues. The athletic Dominican hasn't looked bad in center, where his wheels and arm have been nice assets, but that's not his position of the future. And as much as he's helping the Twins by stepping in and excelling when called upon, he is at a critical point in his development and is hardly getting any reps at shortstop. Santana was already considered a raw defender at short, needing work and polish, and he's not getting the chance to refine his game while spending so much time in the outfield. Ideally, he would spend the majority of his time at his true position for the remainder of the season. But the who takes over center? With Sam Fuld gone, there are basically two choices. The New Guy The Twins snagged Fuld off waivers earlier this year and were able to find his replacement by the same method, claiming 27-year-old Jordan Schafer after he'd been designated for assignment by the Braves. Schafer emerged as a top-tier prospect five years ago, when he was putting up big numbers in the minors thanks to a potent power/speed combo. He has never been able to replicate that success in the big leagues, where he has a .222/.307/.304 hitting line in parts of five seasons. He's not likely to be a very productive hitter (he had a miserable .468 OPS in Atlanta before being cut) but there's some value in running him out there a bunch to get an idea of whether or not he might be worth keeping around next year as a fourth outfielder. Also, he's young enough, and inherently talented enough, that maybe with some regular at-bats you catch lightning in a bottle. It's unlikely, but not impossible. Of course, there's another guy on hand who could also be auditioned for a role next year... What About Aaron Hicks? Sent back to Double-A after another blown opportunity in the majors, Hicks toyed with the notion of giving up switch-hitting and appeared to be running low on confidence. Now, he's got his swag back. He is once again swinging from both sides, and swinging well. In 43 games with New Britain, Hicks is hitting .297/.404/.466. Over his last 10 contests he has a 1.122 OPS. He's taking walks and, more importantly, hitting the ball hard. I know the thought of sending Hicks directly from Double-A to MLB, again, makes some people squeamish. But I don't see a whole lot of benefit in sending him to Rochester. He needs to learn how to hit at the highest level. He needs to make the adjustments to have success against big-league pitching. Being that he's back in a groove, perhaps the time is right to let him try to make those adjustments in a fairly low-pressure environment. A good showing would make it a lot easier to pencil him into the 2015 blueprint, as opposed to a strong finish in the minors. Then again, the Twins could hardly be blamed for wanting to slow things down with Hicks, letting him finish out in the minors while getting increasingly acclimated to the outfield corners. What do you think? Who would you like to see as the regular center fielder the rest of the way, knowing that by this time next year, Byron Buxton might already be entrenched for the next decade? Click here to view the article
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