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The Twins find themselves in an identical scenario at shortstop this offseason: they need one. More importantly, they need to thread the needle between filling the spot in 2022 and leaving it open for Royce Lewis in 2023. Here’s a solution. THE SITUATION The Andrelton Simmons signing was brilliant on paper. The Twins added one of the best defensive players of this generation while moving Jorge Polanco to second, where he’d go on to thrive on both sides. Unfortunately, Simmons didn’t carry his weight and produced one of the worst offensive seasons by a Twin in 20 years. The Twins must avoid a similar landmine in filling the shortstop hole in 2022. Additionally, the spot needs to be warm if Royce Lewis is ready to staff it in 2023. It’s undoubtedly a tremendous free-agent class, and the Twins could opt to pursue one of Marcus Semien, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez, or Trevor Story. They may go back to Simmons or opt for a similarly low-priced commitment to Freddy Galvis or José Iglesias. The latter would allow more allocation to starting pitching, which should be the primary focus this offseason. While it’s tantalizing, committing $20+ million to a star shortstop will eat up a considerable amount of available free agency payroll. The most admirable option is striking the middle. By swinging a trade for Jean Segura, the Twins thread the needle between improving in 2022 and leaving the door open for Lewis in 2023. Oh, and they save some money for pitching too. THE PLAYER Segura was quietly fantastic for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2021, slashing .290/.348/.436 (111 OPS+) with 27 doubles, three triples, and 14 homers in 131 games. He was worth 3.7 Wins Above Replacement, which would’ve ranked third to Polanco (4.8) and Byron Buxton (4.5) on the Twins. The 31-year-old has averaged 3.86 Wins Above Replacement in five full seasons since a 2016 breakout for the Diamondbacks. Segura hits for a high average, doesn’t strike out (especially for this era), and consistently posts better-than-average OPS marks. Segura’s last entire season at shortstop was in 2019, when he was slightly below average defensively, according to Defensive Runs Saved (-3) and Outs Above Average (-7). He’s played primarily second base since, especially after the Phillies signed Didi Gregorius to play short. Segura’s batted-ball data won’t jump off the page, but he’s consistently in the top 10% of the league for lowest strikeout and whiff rate. He has above-average speed and 10-15 homer power. The Twins have plenty of pop and could use another Luis Arraez-type in their lineup. THE COST The Seattle Mariners signed Segura to a 5-year, $70 million deal after his outstanding 2016, then traded him after two seasons. He’s now entering his final guaranteed year of the agreement and will make $14.85 million in 2022. Segura has a club option for 2023 at $17 million with a $1 million buyout. Segura’s salary places him in-between the blue-bloods of this class (Semien, Correa, etc.) and the bargains (Simmons, Galvis, Iglesias). It’s essentially a one-year, $14.85 million deal with an option for a second. It's is an ideal contract for the Twins, as they aren’t sure Lewis will be ready to start at short in 2023 but also want to leave the possibility open. According to FanGraphs, Segura was worth $19.8 million in 2021. THE TRADE You may be asking why the Phillies would trade their starting second baseman when they’re trying to compete? Well, you could be right. There’s a chance the Phillies aren’t entertaining offers for Segura. But why wouldn’t they? Philadelphia needs as much relief help as it can get. The team has an estimated $171 million already committed to 2022 and sported a 27th-ranked bullpen last year (1.1 fWAR). The Phillies are spending ~$62 million on their infield and could stand to re-allocate those funds to the pitching side. Further, the Phillies currently have MLB’s 4th-weakest farm system, per Pipeline. They could hand off Segura’s contract while also adding young talent. On the Twins side, the price may be two mid-level prospects. Say, RHP Cole Sands and INF Edouard Julien? THE BOTTOM LINE No one wants to see Simmons helplessly wave his bat for the Twins again in 2022. They need improvement in the short term and perspective for the long term. Segura is an opportunity for that. He’s a solid player on a solid contract and allows the Twins to focus most of their spending on the rotation. What are your thoughts on Jean Segura? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article
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THE SITUATION The Andrelton Simmons signing was brilliant on paper. The Twins added one of the best defensive players of this generation while moving Jorge Polanco to second, where he’d go on to thrive on both sides. Unfortunately, Simmons didn’t carry his weight and produced one of the worst offensive seasons by a Twin in 20 years. The Twins must avoid a similar landmine in filling the shortstop hole in 2022. Additionally, the spot needs to be warm if Royce Lewis is ready to staff it in 2023. It’s undoubtedly a tremendous free-agent class, and the Twins could opt to pursue one of Marcus Semien, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez, or Trevor Story. They may go back to Simmons or opt for a similarly low-priced commitment to Freddy Galvis or José Iglesias. The latter would allow more allocation to starting pitching, which should be the primary focus this offseason. While it’s tantalizing, committing $20+ million to a star shortstop will eat up a considerable amount of available free agency payroll. The most admirable option is striking the middle. By swinging a trade for Jean Segura, the Twins thread the needle between improving in 2022 and leaving the door open for Lewis in 2023. Oh, and they save some money for pitching too. THE PLAYER Segura was quietly fantastic for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2021, slashing .290/.348/.436 (111 OPS+) with 27 doubles, three triples, and 14 homers in 131 games. He was worth 3.7 Wins Above Replacement, which would’ve ranked third to Polanco (4.8) and Byron Buxton (4.5) on the Twins. The 31-year-old has averaged 3.86 Wins Above Replacement in five full seasons since a 2016 breakout for the Diamondbacks. Segura hits for a high average, doesn’t strike out (especially for this era), and consistently posts better-than-average OPS marks. Segura’s last entire season at shortstop was in 2019, when he was slightly below average defensively, according to Defensive Runs Saved (-3) and Outs Above Average (-7). He’s played primarily second base since, especially after the Phillies signed Didi Gregorius to play short. Segura’s batted-ball data won’t jump off the page, but he’s consistently in the top 10% of the league for lowest strikeout and whiff rate. He has above-average speed and 10-15 homer power. The Twins have plenty of pop and could use another Luis Arraez-type in their lineup. THE COST The Seattle Mariners signed Segura to a 5-year, $70 million deal after his outstanding 2016, then traded him after two seasons. He’s now entering his final guaranteed year of the agreement and will make $14.85 million in 2022. Segura has a club option for 2023 at $17 million with a $1 million buyout. Segura’s salary places him in-between the blue-bloods of this class (Semien, Correa, etc.) and the bargains (Simmons, Galvis, Iglesias). It’s essentially a one-year, $14.85 million deal with an option for a second. It's is an ideal contract for the Twins, as they aren’t sure Lewis will be ready to start at short in 2023 but also want to leave the possibility open. According to FanGraphs, Segura was worth $19.8 million in 2021. THE TRADE You may be asking why the Phillies would trade their starting second baseman when they’re trying to compete? Well, you could be right. There’s a chance the Phillies aren’t entertaining offers for Segura. But why wouldn’t they? Philadelphia needs as much relief help as it can get. The team has an estimated $171 million already committed to 2022 and sported a 27th-ranked bullpen last year (1.1 fWAR). The Phillies are spending ~$62 million on their infield and could stand to re-allocate those funds to the pitching side. Further, the Phillies currently have MLB’s 4th-weakest farm system, per Pipeline. They could hand off Segura’s contract while also adding young talent. On the Twins side, the price may be two mid-level prospects. Say, RHP Cole Sands and INF Edouard Julien? THE BOTTOM LINE No one wants to see Simmons helplessly wave his bat for the Twins again in 2022. They need improvement in the short term and perspective for the long term. Segura is an opportunity for that. He’s a solid player on a solid contract and allows the Twins to focus most of their spending on the rotation. What are your thoughts on Jean Segura? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email
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