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A year ago, the Twins were coming off of a 103-loss season, and all of the talk was about whether or not Brian Dozier would be traded for prospects. A deal was not able to be worked out, and Dozier remained with the Twins. Things have changed after a 2017 season that saw the Twins win 85 games and make the playoffs for the first time in seven years. With Derek Falvey and Thad Levine preaching long-term, sustainable, championship caliber team as the goal, what will they attempt to do with Brian Dozier this offseason? To trade, or to sign to a long-term contract? That is the question.Yesterday, Brian Dozier was named the 2017 Twins MVP for the third straight year. He’s coming off of another big season. With the team’s success in 2017, the idea of trading Brian Dozier would not go over well with the fan base. That, however, is not the ultimate concern for the front office, though it certain will be a factor. However, when the Twins were unable to acquire a sufficient package for Dozier after his 42 home run season, with two more years left on his contract, it’s hard to believe they would get a better offer for one season of Dozier. If that is the case, then the discussion has to turn to whether or not they should consider attempt to sign him to another long-term contract or let him become a free agent at the end of the 2018 season. Dozier, who turned 30 in May, has averaged 4.5 bWAR and 4.25 fWAR over his five full big league seasons. Over the last two seasons, he’s been worth approximately 5.5 WAR. In my opinion, an attempt should be made, or at least a conversation should be held regarding an extension for Brian Dozier. So, I thought I’d consider what a long-term extension for Brian Dozier might look like. To do so, I had to look at some of the great second basemen in baseball that have signed in the recent past. Jose Altuve - The Astros wisely locked in Altuve before the 2014 season. He signed a four year, $12.5 million contract with two option seasons. Assuming the Astros don’t tear up that deal, his option seasons of $6 million and $6.5 million for 2018 and 2019 will be picked up. There is nothing in that deal to compare to Dozier. A quick look and we’ll see that the four year, $20 million deal gave him deals that lined up nearly identically with the contracts signed at that same time in the careers of Dustin Pedroia, Jason Kipnis, Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano. Starting in 2015, Dozier’s annual salaries have been or will be $2 million, $3 million, $6 million and $9 million. Dustin Pedroia got $1.5 million in 2009, followed by salaries of $3.5 million, $5.5 million, $8 million and then $10 million.Jason Kipnis’s deal started in 2014 and provided salaries of $2 million, $4 million, $6 million and $9 million.Ian Kinslers deal, starting in 2009, gave him salaries of $3 million, $4 million, $6 million and $7 million.Robinson Cano’s deal started in 2008, and he got $3 million, $6 million, $9 million and $10 million (though it started a year later). He also had $14 million and $15 million options picked up in 2012 and 2013.Rougned Odor signed a deal that started in 2017 in which he got $1 million, $3 million, $7.5 million, $9 million, $12 million, $12 million and an option for $13.5 million in 2023.Of course, in 2023, Odor will be 29 years old. Of this group, Dozier was the eldest as far as when he made the deal. That has to be factored in, but more into the length of the contract, not so much the dollars. Understanding that Dozier’s deal lined up so closely with so many quality second baseman, it is clear that the next step for us is to look at what type of contract each of those players got following their initial deal. How much did their post-free agent-eligible years cost. Here’s the quick rundown. Dustin Pedroia - The Red Sox second baseman jumped to $12.5 million in 2014, and then was paid $12.5 million, $13.0 million and $15.0 million in the three years since. He still has four years remaining on his contract with salaries of $16 million, $15 million, $13 million and $12 million in 2021 (age 37).Jason Kipnis - Cleveland paid Kipnis $9 million in 2017. He will make $13.5 million in 2018, $14.5 million in 2019 and he has an option for $16.5 million in 2020 (age 33 season) with a $2.5 million buyout.Ian Kinsler - The Tigers second baseman signed his deal back in 2013 while with the Rangers. He made $13 million in 2013, $16 million in 2014 and 2015, $14 million in 2016 and $11 million in 2017. He has a $10 million option for 2018, his age 36 season, with a $5 million buyout. (It was also a vesting option and because he got over 600 plate appearances in 2017, it was picked up.)Robinson Cano had his options for 2014 and 2015 picked up for a combined $29 million. Of course, he then became a 30-year-old free agent and signed a 10-year, $240 million deal with the Mariners.So, what does all that mean for Brian Dozier? Well, it gives us some parameters for an extension. Those All Stars or former All Stars signed similar contracts as when Dozier signed his, and they have signed for several years after when that contract ran out. We have to account for baseball salaries continuing to rise since those deals as well as Dozier’s age as he enters the extension. Brian Dozier is set to make $9 million in 2018. Using those other contracts as a baseline, here is what I would think a potentially realistic extension for Dozier could look like: 2015 - $2 million 2016 - $3 million 2017 - $6 million --------------------------------------- 2018 - $9 million (unchanged) --------------------------------------- Signing bonus - $3.5 million (paid in 2018) 2019 - Age 32 - $14.0 million 2020 - Age 33 - $14.5 million 2021 - Age 34 - $15.0 million 2022 - Age 35 - $14.0 million 2023 - Age 36 - $12.0 million (option with a $4 million buyout, which would vest with 600 PA in 2022.) --------------------------------------- If that is the deal, we are looking at a 4 year, $65 million with an option that could make it a five year, $73 million deal. 2024 would be Dozier’s Age 37 season, so it is likely that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would prefer a contract extension be more in the three or four year range, maybe even if that means a higher annual salary. They could get creative and put a couple of options on the end of it. They may want to give Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon another year to develop to see what a lineup without Brian Dozier in it looks like for 2019. Also, understanding that they may need to sign some long-term deals in the not-too-distant future with some of the youngsters, they may be more willing to frontload a contract. Dozier is one year from free agency. If he gets there, and stays healthy, there should be a good market for him. Maybe that would allow him to make a little bit more. At the same time, as a free agent entering his age-32 season, he may not receive more than four year contract offers… or he could get six years. With all of that at your fingertips, what would you do as it relates to Brian Dozier? Still look to trade him? Let 2018 play out. He’ll become a free agent, and take your chances then. Or, should they spend the offseason discussing a long-term extension to keep him as a leader of the Twins for the foreseeable future? ------------------------------------------------------------------------ COMING SOON! A reminder, Nick Nelson is leading the way in the final steps of creating the Twins Daily Annual Offseason Handbook. Keep checking back next week for many more details. As we have in the past, we'll take a look at what options the Twins may have during the upcoming offseason. Trade Targets. Free Agents. Exclusive articles from the Twins Daily owners only available in the electronic book. Definitely something Twins fans will want at their fingertips. Click here to view the article

Brian Dozier posted some incredible numbers in 2016. Despite a very slow start and missing games at the end with injury, he hit .268/.340/.546 (.886) with 35 doubles, five triples, 42 homers, 104 runs scored and 99 RBI. On Thursday, the Silver Slugger Awards were announced. Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros won the Award for AL Second Baseman for the third straight year. They don't give any ranking for the awards, but it's possible that, despite his remarkable numbers, Dozier could have finished as low as third among AL second baseman. Long considered a defense-first position, second base has become a position where offense matters. This isn't necessarily new. Altuve, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano have been putting up strong offensive numbers for most of a decade. This year, however, ten American League second basemen posted an fWAR of at least 2.0.There's no real 'analysis' to the below. I'm just going to post the Top 10 rankings among American League second basemen in 2016. What's remarkable to me is that 22-year-old Rougned Odor of the Texas Rangers knocked 33 home runs in 2016 and isn't among the Top 5 in other categories and he's not in the upper half at the position in most categories. Read below to see where Brian Dozier ranked among American League second basemen. In the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, Nick wrote an article on Dealing Dozier. It's well worth the read. You can download a copy of the Handbook right now at no charge (or you are welcomed to give a donation if you choose). Top 10 (Runs Scored) Ian Kinsler - 117Jose Altuve - 108Robinson Cano - 107Dustin Pedroia - 105Brian Dozier - 104Jason Kipnis - 91Rougned Odor - 89Jonathan Schoop - 82Logan Forsythe - 76Starlin Castro - 63Top 10 (RBI)Robinson Cano - 103Brian Dozier - 99Jose Altuve - 96Rougned Odor - 88Ian Kinsler - 83Jason Kipnis - 82Dustin Pedroia - 74Starlin Castro - 70Logan Forsythe - 52Devon Travis - 50Top 10 (Doubles)Jose Altuve - 42Jason Kipnis - 41Jonathan Schoop - 38Dustin Pedroia - 36Brian Dozier - 35Robinson Cano - 33Rougned Odor - 33Starlin Castro - 29Ian Kinsler - 29Devon Travis - 28Top 10 (Home Runs)Brian Dozier - 42Robinson Cano - 39Rougned Odor - 33Ian Kinsler - 28Jonathan Schoop - 25Jose Altuve - 24Jason Kipnis - 23Starlin Castro - 21Logan Forsythe - 20Dustin Pedroia - 15OPS+ (100 is average)Jose Altuve - 154Robinson Cano -138Brian Dozier - 136Ian Kinsler - 124Dustin Pedroia - 124Logan Forsythe - 113Devon Travis - 108Jason Kipnis - 107Rougned Odor - 105Brett Lawrie - 99Top 10 (bWAR - Wins Above Replacement by Baseball Reference)Jose Altuve - 6.7Robinson Cano - 6.0Brian Dozier - 5.9Ian Kinsler - 5.8Dustin Pedroia - 5.2Jason Kipnis - 4.8Logan Forsythe - 2.8Devon Travis - 2.5Rougned Odor - 2.0Jonathan Schoop - 2.0Top 10 (fWAR - Wins Above Replacement by FanGraphs)Jose Altuve - 6.7Robinson Cano - 6.0Brian Dozier - 5.9Ian Kinsler - 5.8Dustin Pedroia - 5.2Jason Kipnis - 4.8Logan Forsythe - 2.8Devon Travis - 2.5Rougned Odor - 2.0Jonathan Schoop - 2.0Of course, FanGraphs also assigns a value in dollars to their WAR calculation. For 2016, that value was approximately $8 million. So just for fun, that would mean that Altuve's 2016 season was valued at $53.4 million. Cano was valued at $47.6 million. Brian Dozier's 2016 season was valued at $47.2 million. Before the 2015 season, Dozier signed a four year, $20 million contract. In 2016, he more than earned his $3 million salary. Since joining the Twins during the 2012 season, he has been valued at $124.5 million to the Twins. For some context, Joe Mauer's 2009 season was valued at $48.4 million. (7.6 WAR at about $6.4 million per) Mauer's 2009 season was the only season in which he eclipsed Dozier's 5.9 fWAR of 2016. Mauer had seasons with 5.8 fWAR () and 5.7 fWAR () and he accumulated 5.3 fWAR in 2013 when his season ended six weeks early with his concussion. Brian Dozier had an incredible 2016 season, one of the best in organization history. He had an incredible season, historically, for a second baseman. In a year of many great second basemen, Dozier was right near the top. ------------------------------------------------------ Again, the Offseason Handbook can be downloaded now at no charge (or, name your price). Click here to view the article