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  1. Minnesota’s biggest off-season move was signing Jason Castro to a three-year deal worth $24.5 million. The team had a clear need at catcher and Castro was the 13th best available player according to ESPN.com. But are there other free agent fits after a 103-loss season? Here are five names the Twins could still be considering.Jason Hammel, RHP Hammel posted a 3.68 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over the last three seasons in Chicago and Oakland. With other Cubs’ starters ahead of him, the team could afford to let him go. The Twins need more pitching and he would slide into the rotation nicely. He might be a good candidate to sign to a one- or two-year deal so he could recoup some value. At the start of next season, he will already be 34-years old so he will not have many more opportunities to be a free agent. Doug Fister, RHP Fister is only two-years removed from a terrific season in Washington where he threw for a 2.41 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He has posted ERA totals greater than 4.15 in each of the last two seasons. Fister is younger than Hammel and he has pitched 237 fewer big league innings. He has pitched over 160 innings in each of the last four seasons where he was used exclusively as a starter. Like Hammel, there is an opportunity for him to produce a bounce back season. Scott Feldman, RHP Feldman was one of the players I targeted when completing my 2016 Twins offseason blueprint. I would offer him a two-year deal with some incentives since he has shown some positive signs since joining the bullpen. Minnesota’s bullpen has been overused in recent years so a new arm could add some life to a worn-out group. If he continues to make strides in the right direction, the Twins might be able to deal him for prospects at the trade deadline. Stephen Drew, 2B/3B/SS Drew will be entering his 12th big league season and he has shown the ability to play multiple positions around the infield. He could provide some insurance with young players like Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco scheduled to start. He got on base almost 34% of the time last year. His .864 OPS was his highest total since his rookie season. Drew could take over the role vacated by Eduardo Nunez while providing a veteran voice in the clubhouse. Austin Jackson, OF Minnesota is scheduled to start the year with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, and Robbie Grossman as the team’s outfielders. The young trio of Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario all have things to prove. Jackson would add a veteran bat who can play all three outfield positions. If any of the young core needs more seasoning in Rochester, Jackson could take over the starting duties. Derek Falvey, the Twins Chief Baseball Officer, told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, “The reality is, we’re standing here today with players still available in free agency that I don’t think any of us would have predicted in October. Things change.” Regardless of whether the front office pursues any of the names listed above, it looks like the Twins are incredible longshots to make it to the World Series. Mytopsportsbooks.com, which already has MLB Futures odds posted, lists them at 200-1 right now. While the odds seem to be against a World Series run, it seems likely for the Twins to head to Fort Myers with a player or players who are not currently on the roster. Who would be a good fit with the club’s current direction? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Click here to view the article
  2. Jason Hammel, RHP Hammel posted a 3.68 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over the last three seasons in Chicago and Oakland. With other Cubs’ starters ahead of him, the team could afford to let him go. The Twins need more pitching and he would slide into the rotation nicely. He might be a good candidate to sign to a one- or two-year deal so he could recoup some value. At the start of next season, he will already be 34-years old so he will not have many more opportunities to be a free agent. Doug Fister, RHP Fister is only two-years removed from a terrific season in Washington where he threw for a 2.41 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He has posted ERA totals greater than 4.15 in each of the last two seasons. Fister is younger than Hammel and he has pitched 237 fewer big league innings. He has pitched over 160 innings in each of the last four seasons where he was used exclusively as a starter. Like Hammel, there is an opportunity for him to produce a bounce back season. Scott Feldman, RHP Feldman was one of the players I targeted when completing my 2016 Twins offseason blueprint. I would offer him a two-year deal with some incentives since he has shown some positive signs since joining the bullpen. Minnesota’s bullpen has been overused in recent years so a new arm could add some life to a worn-out group. If he continues to make strides in the right direction, the Twins might be able to deal him for prospects at the trade deadline. Stephen Drew, 2B/3B/SS Drew will be entering his 12th big league season and he has shown the ability to play multiple positions around the infield. He could provide some insurance with young players like Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco scheduled to start. He got on base almost 34% of the time last year. His .864 OPS was his highest total since his rookie season. Drew could take over the role vacated by Eduardo Nunez while providing a veteran voice in the clubhouse. Austin Jackson, OF Minnesota is scheduled to start the year with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, and Robbie Grossman as the team’s outfielders. The young trio of Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario all have things to prove. Jackson would add a veteran bat who can play all three outfield positions. If any of the young core needs more seasoning in Rochester, Jackson could take over the starting duties. Derek Falvey, the Twins Chief Baseball Officer, told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, “The reality is, we’re standing here today with players still available in free agency that I don’t think any of us would have predicted in October. Things change.” Regardless of whether the front office pursues any of the names listed above, it looks like the Twins are incredible longshots to make it to the World Series. Mytopsportsbooks.com, which already has MLB Futures odds posted, lists them at 200-1 right now. While the odds seem to be against a World Series run, it seems likely for the Twins to head to Fort Myers with a player or players who are not currently on the roster. Who would be a good fit with the club’s current direction? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
  3. With Dave St. Peter saying the Minnesota Twins’ payroll won’t be “going down significantly” in an interview with Mike Berardino, the time has come to determine how significant the payroll decrease will be. With season ticket sales due to drop without the lure of the MLB All-Star Game and the “honeymoon effect” of shiny, new Target Field wearing off, I argue the Twins’ payroll will go down significantly. This blog was originally published at Go Gonzo Journal. Right now, the Twins have nearly $60 million in commitments. They started the season with a payroll of $85 million, but dumped about $10 million when they traded Kendrys Morales, Josh Willingham, and Kevin Correia midseason. Aaron Gleeman assures us on this week’s episode of Gleeman and the Geek that we won’t be seeing that money again, and it won’t be invested into 2015. I know, it’s stupid, but let’s evaluate the non-tender candidates and see what we’re left with. Tommy Milone Originally, I had assumed the Twins would make a splash in the deep starting pitching market this offseason, but that’s looking more and more unlikely, despite Mike Berardino’s support of my idea to sign Ervin Santana. Berardino suggests Jason Hammel as a cheaper yet effective option, which is reasonable, but I think the Twins intend to keep Tommy Milone around now that they’ve seen him pitch one shutout inning. The Twins’ front office likes to take a small sample-size and extrapolate it into some form of unhinged hope. I mean, he’s a free poker chip, and Terry Ryan probably thinks of him that way. Ryan’s subconscious will also play a role. I imagine it’s saying, “When that kid turns it around and starts throwing like he was in Oakland, people in Minnesota will be calling you a genius again.” That could very well be, and with team control until 2018, Milone could end up a free poker chip that pays off. He’ll be around. Anthony Swarzak There is no way I see Swarzak returning to the Twins. His strikeouts per nine innings were down 1.5 from 2013, and he walked nearly one guy more per game than the previous year. I see Mike Pelfrey filling this role, since there’s no place else to put him. Jared Burton If Terry Ryan picks up Burton’s option for 2015, I’ll throw a bigger tantrum than Aaron Gleeman did when Pelfrey was given a two-year deal. If it happens, there’s no way Ryan has a job in 2016. Brian Duensing I was on the fence on Duensing when I reviewed the Twins payroll last month, and his community involvement made me leave him on the roster, but that’s no longer the case. Duensing’s strikeout rate has dropped significantly, from 8.3 in 2013 to 5.5 in 2014, but his 3.31 ERA will keep him in the running for an increase in pay this year. I guessed he’d make $3.2 million in 2015, which is too much considering Duensing can’t get righties out. They had an .843 OPS off him in 2014. Eduardo Nunez Like Gleeman, I don’t see the value in Nunez. He never could hit, and he’s the worst defensive shortstop in the game. For some reason Twins Daily fans seem to think he’ll be back, but I don’t see it. Eduardo Escobar is a more versatile utility option that can hit, and according to Mike Berardino, he’ll be $1 million cheaper than expected. His average was 25 points higher, his on-base percentage was 44 points higher, and he can play six positions, albeit just below average. Nunez is well below average everywhere he plays except the outfield, which may be why some people think he’ll be back, but he can’t hit enough to stick at a corner outfield spot, and with Miguel Sano pushing Trevor Plouffe to a new position, I doubt the Twins tender Nunez a contract. There’s room for only one Eduardo on this team. The Twins also have a new guy that will get a good look next season. http://i1.wp.com/gogonzojournal.com/wp-content/uploads/Screen-Shot-2014-10-07-at-5.53.02-PM.png?zoom=2&resize=300%2C573 My new Minnesota Twins’ payroll and roster for 2015. Jordan Schafer I don’t think there’s any way the Twins don’t tender a contract to Schafer, and not because he hit the hell out of the ball and got on base at a .345 clip when he came over from the Braves. I don’t think Schafer’s numbers at the plate are sustainable, but in 262.1 innings in left field, Schafer was worth 21 runs above the average left fielder’s range defensively. It was his best position in Atlanta, too, as he was worth 14 runs above average. Schafer is under team control until 2017, and gives Terry Ryan a reason not to sign a free agent left fielder this offseason. It also gets Ryan’s subconscious talking about how Schafer will make him look like a genius. Trevor Plouffe Plouffe had a career year at the plate and in the field. He improved his defense and walk rate. He hit the same number of homers as he did in 2013 and nearly doubled his double total. His on-base percentage was up 19 points, and his OPS was up 50 points from 2013. His WAR was 3.9! All that being said, he is not an extension candidate, but a trade candidate in 2015. This will be Plouffe’s first year of arbitration eligibility, and he’s due a sizable raise. I’ve predicted he’ll make around $3.8 million next year, and if he continues what he did in 2014, he’ll be a valuable trade chip at third base or better learn to love left field. I think he’ll be dealt by the trade deadline next year to make room for Sano. Brian Dozier Dozier is obviously a candidate for an extension after raising his on-base percentage 33 points in 2014, and that’s the route Terry Ryan may very well take, but it won’t be this year. He likes to reward guys for past performance, and Dozier has arguably become the face of the franchise. He’s a fan and media favorite, and he’s certainly Ryan’s most valuable asset. He had a WAR of 5.2, best on the team and fifth amongst MLB second basemen. But he’s even more valuable if you don’t extend him. Dozier is under team control until 2019. He’ll be 32 and declining when he signs his first free agent contract, and given the depth at middle infield positions the Twins finally have, I suspect Dozier will be dealt…eventually. Mike Berardino expects Jorge Polanco to be competing with Dozier for MLB time by the end of next season, and I suspect we haven’t heard the last of Eddie Rosario. Marijuana isn’t a drug that ruins careers. By August 2017, the last year of Nolasco’s deal, Dozier will be gone, unless he turns into the best second baseman in the game. Hopefully the Twins can make some noise in the playoffs before then, but a top-5 player at any position is worth an ace and some change in return. And Minnesota needs pitching more than it needs a top-5 second baseman. You can’t afford to have a heart in this game. Phil Hughes Phil Hughes is the man I most want to extend, but I wouldn’t do it until after next season. Hughes hasn’t been able to string two good seasons in a row yet, and I’d like to see some consistency before extending him three more years. I think this is the approach Terry Ryan will take as well. So how much does the payroll go “down significantly” from 2014? Well, if Terry Ryan signs Jason Hammel and does what I expect him to with the rest of the non-tender candidates, the 2015 payroll will be almost exactly the same as 2014’s – roughly $85 million. Without Hammel, though, we’re looking at a payroll that’s around $75 million, significantly down from 2014, regardless of what Dave St. Peter says. ---- Anthony Varriano is editor of Go Gonzo Journal Sports, a blog featuring the rants of fans and outlaw journalists.
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