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It is beyond obvious that Jorge Polanco is essential to this Minnesota Twins team. Polanco's offense at the top of the lineup provides all-star level production, despite being on the most questionable defensive shortshops in the league. You could make a convincing case that he was the MVP of the team in 2019. With that out of the way, let's play a twisted game of "What If?". What if Polanco goes down with an injury in 2020? It's not inconceivable, as he had offseason surgery for an ankle impingement, but the Twins anticipate him being ready for Spring Training. Even with that reassurance from the team, you'd rather have the starting shortstop come into Spring Training with zero questions about an ankle. If Polanco were to miss major time with an injury (ankle or otherwise), I believe that he would be the most difficult position player to replace on this team. There are limited options behind him that are clear defensive upgrades, which is concerning given that Polanco ranked last in baseball for Infield Outs Above Average (OAA). Beyond defense, there's only a few players in the league that could match his offensive output at the position. So what would would the Twins do if Polanco were to go on an extended stay on the Injured List? Below are the internal options to replace him, and they aren't inspiring. Ehire Adrianza Adrianza is the best fit on the 26-man (that number is still taking a while to get used to) to step in for an injured Polanco. However, Father Time suggests that the 30-year-old Adrianza is not as efficient at the position as he used to be. Adrianza played 152 innings at shortstop in 2019, down from 534 innings in 2018 due to Polanco playing a full year. Statcast has Adrianza at -2 OAA at shortstop, but he had a 5 OAA in 2018. FanGraphs considered him to below average at the position as well, with a -2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -14.1 UZR/150 in 2019. The Twins did not substitute Adrianza for Polanco at shortstop that often in 2019, clearly valuing him more as a utility player at other positions. This is because while Polanco major defensive deficiencies, Adrianza is not that much of a defensive upgrade as a shorstop. Adrianza did have above average offensive production in 2019, with a 102 Weight Runs Created Plus (wRC+), but Adrianza has previously never posted a wRC+ over 100 during his time at the major league level (career 84 wRC+). Even if Adrianza matches his 2019 offensive production, it would not come close to Polanco's projected 109 wRC+. Marwin Gonzalez Gonzalez has appeared at shortstop more than any other position during his MLB career (292 games), but it's clear the Twins view him more as a utility option at the corners and outfield positions going forward. Gonzalez started one game at shortstop in 2019, and a whooping two games at second base. The Twins likely took a major note from his last few years playing shortstop in Houston: 2017: -2 OAA, -3 DRS, -8.5 UZR/150 2018: -6 OAA, - 5 DRS, -30.6 UZR/150 Gonzalez would be a fine offensive shortshop, but his defensive ability to field the position no longer makes him an option to fill in for Polanco. He will be a necessary asset to mix-in at first base, where Miguel Sano will be learning a new full-time position, and across the outfield against left-handed pitchers. But he would not be first in-line to replace Polanco if a major injury were to occur, as his days as a shortstop appear to be over. Luis Arraez As I detailed in my Defensive Evaluation post on Arraez, there isn't a large sample on his time at shortstop. However, if there are major concerns with his ability to field second base ( -6 OAA, -8 DRS, -22.6 UZR/150), those worries would be amplified at a much more demanding position. The vast majority of Arraez's value also comes from his bat, but the water-level of offensive production rises from second base to shortstop. MLB SS Average in 2019: .264/.323/.439, .321 wOBA, 98 wRC+ MLB 2B Average in 2019: .259/.322/.423, .316 wOBA, 94 wRC+ Luis Arraez in 2019: .334/.399/.439, .360 wOBA, 125 wRC+ Arraez had better offensive metrics than the average at both positions, but moving him to shortstop does reduce a bit of his value as the expectation for production rises. When factoring in the negative defensive value and probable regression, Arraez would likely inch closer to average overall value at shortstop than his primary home at second base. Nick Gordon Nick Gordon is the last infielder on the 40-man roster that can handle the defensive requirements for shortstop, but he is likely a candidate to be removed from the 40-man when Josh Donaldson is formally announced. In 6 years in the minors, Gordon has failed to show signs of offensive promise outside of a few promising first halves. His collective offensive line is .276/.329/.459 is rather pedestrian for a former first round draft pick, and boosted by an improved showing in 2019 where the ball at the AAA-level was juiced. When healthy, the Twins played Gordon at shortstop slightly more at shortstop than second base in 2019, with a 40/30 game split between the two positions. The same trend also existed in 2018, with a 69/30 game split. The problem is Gordon has shown durability concerns, likely due to his slight build. This results in extreme production drop-offs in the second half when he isn't missing significant time with an injury. If Gordon remains on the roster by Opening Day, a Polanco injury might be one of his first and last shots to make an impression on the major league level. All four major league infield positions are locked in for multiple years of control, and more impressive prospects are at lower levels in the system. While a Polanco injury might be a best-case scenario for Gordon, the odds are stacked against him to provide average-level production as a temporary starting shortstop - let alone coming close to Polanco's offensive level. The impending roster crunch makes it even less likely that an opportunity will arise. Minor League Signings The Twins recently signed a few shortstops to minor league contracts, after Ronald Torreyes departed as a minor-league free agent. Wilfredo Tovar and Jack Reinhemier were signed in December, but both players have limited cameos at the major league level and should be seen as depth "break-glass-in-case-of-emergency" options. The 28-year-old Tovar has appeared in 40 games since 2013, but the majority (31) came in 2019 with the Los Angels Angels. He has produced a 28 wRC+ and a .217 wOBA in 110 plate appearances, with five extra base hits (all doubles). FanGraphs has rated his 257 career innings at shortstop favorably, with +2 DRS and a 16.2 UZR/150, so his benefit comes from his glove rather than his bat (career .676 OPS in the minors). Reinhemier is slightly younger at 27, with major league experience with Arizona in 2017 and the Mets in 2018. He collected only 40 plate appearances across these two seasons , with a 23 wRC+ and .196 wOBA. Reinheimer is more of utility player than pure shortstop, as 28 of his career 79.2 MLB innings have been played at the position. One of these players might be called up as a bench option in the event of a Polanco injury. If they are starting regularly as shortstop, something has gone horribly, horribly wrong. Why is Polanco the most difficult position player to replace? The internal options above paint a bleak picture in the scenario of a major Polanco injury. While all other starting position players are all projected to provide multiple wins above replacement, finding a replacement will be easier for all them due to the current layout of the roster. The Twins have multiple major league caliber outfielders on the bench in the likes of Jake Cave and Marwin Gonzalez. Players on the 40-man that are major league ready, or close to it, include LaMonte Wade Jr, Brent Rooker, and Luke Raley. The corner infield spots are similarly covered, with Marwin Gonzalez providing positive defensive value (unlike shortstop), and Adrianza right behind him. Even Willians Astudillo and Travis Blankenhorn could provide replacement level service if necessary. Many of these same players could easily step in for Luis Arraez at second base. The catcher position is also in decent shape, as the Twins will be protective of Mitch Garver with plenty of time given to Alex Avila. Behind Avila, Astudillo is a serviceable (but more entertaining) backup with top catching prospect Ryan Jeffers not too far behind. All of these positions have stronger backup options than shortstop, where the best replacement appears to be Ehire Adrianza. While Adrianza is a fine utility player, he has never been given a starting role. At 30 years of age, his defense will continue to drop-off, and he is no sure bet to provide above average offensive output as he did in 2019. Without Adrianza's offense making up for his defensive play, as is the case with Polanco, he might become a major liability as a starting shortstop. There's no near-term replacement for Polanco in the upper levels of the minor leagues, and the major league bench pieces aren't the best fit at his position. As I explained in my earlier defensive evaluation post, Polanco's historical metrics at the position suggest the time to find a long-term replacement is approaching in the next few years. It might be best to have the replacement in the wings, ready to step in in case this horrible game of "What If?" becomes reality.

Brusdar Graterol Shoulder Impingement Q&A Heezy1323 Heralded Twins prospect Brusdar Graterol was recently shut down and placed on the IL for ‘shoulder impingement’. This is concerning given how promising a start to the 2019 season Graterol has had and what it could mean for his future. So what is ‘shoulder impingement’? And when might it need surgery? Let’s see what we can figure out: [Disclaimer: I am not a team physician for the Twins. I have not treated or examined any Twins players. The information I am using is only that which is publicly available. My goal with these posts is to provide some education to TD readers around general injuries that are peculiar to baseball players.] Question 1: What is shoulder impingement? Shoulder impingement is a sort of catch-all term that can be used to mean a number of different things depending on the specifics of the situation. It Is a term that is often used in application to patients who have pain in their shoulders, often without any specific structural damage or a particular injury. Most frequently, people have pain in their shoulder area that gets worse when working above chest level. It is often treated with physical therapy, activity modification, oral medication and occasional cortisone injections. It is uncommon for these patients to require surgery, but it is sometimes needed after the preceding treatments have failed to provide adequate relief. Some also refer to this condition as shoulder bursitis. It involves irritation of the rotator cuff and the bursa, which lies between the rotator cuff tendons and a part of the bone of the shoulder blade (called the acromion). You may have friends or family members who have been told they have ‘impingement’- this is a fairly commonly used diagnosis. More specifically, this condition is referred to as ‘external impingement’. Shoulder impingement in pitchers, however, often means something entirely different than what is described above. Whereas external impingement occurs between the rotator cuff and the acromion (outside of the ball and socket joint of the shoulder), pitchers more commonly have problems with what is called ‘internal impingement’. This occurs specifically in overhead athletes because of the tremendous motion that is necessary to hurl a baseball 90+ mph accurately. During the course of throwing, the arm is cocked back, placing it in an awkward position. In this position, part of the rotator cuff can get pinched between the bone of the ball and the bone of the socket (also often including pinching of the labrum). This may not seem like a big deal, but over time this repetitive motion can begin to take its toll. Experts agree that some changes/damage to the structures of the shoulder are likely normal and adaptive in pitchers rather than problematic. In some cases, however, these structural changes progress down the spectrum and become an issue- causing pain, lack of velocity and/or control and fatigue of the shoulder. There is not perfect agreement amongst experts about why exactly these athletes begin to have pain in some cases. Regardless, it is likely a very complex combination of factors ranging from subtle changes in mechanics to core strength to gradual loosening of shoulder ligaments over time (and many others). Each individual case is likely different, and treatment needs to be tailored to the specifics of the athlete. Question 2: How/when did this injury occur? Typically, this is not an injury that results from a single trauma (though theoretically it can happen that way). It is much more typical for this to be the result of an accumulation of ‘microtraumas’ over a long period of time. Question 3: Does this injury always need surgery? No. As mentioned above, painful shoulder impingement in throwers is likely related to a complex set of factors. Because of this, treating any ONE thing with a surgery is somewhat unlikely to be effective. As a result, treatment is almost always begun by trying to calm down inflamed tissues. This typically involves rest from throwing. It may also involve oral medications and in some instances, cortisone injections. There is some discussion around PRP and so-called ‘stem cell’ injections (what orthopedists refer to as Bone Marrow Aspirate Concentrate or BMAC) for these types of problems, though this is not yet something I would consider standard of care. During this time, the athlete is also likely to undergo physical therapy to work on improving some of the other factors mentioned above- core strength, range of motion, rotator cuff strength, etc. As the pain and inflammation improve, the athlete is likely re-examined by trainers and physicians. This can take anywhere from a week or two to several weeks depending on the case. When things have improved sufficiently, the athlete is likely to begin an interval throwing program, which involves progressively more aggressive throwing sessions. Once they have completed this, they would likely return to the mound and begin throwing from there. Once appropriate progress has been made (and of course presuming no setbacks are encountered), they are likely cleared to return to play. The success of non-surgical treatment for these types of problems is all over the map in the literature. There are ranges from percents in the teens to 70%+. Again, it likely depends on a large number of factors which makes prognosticating nearly impossible. Question 4: How do we tell which cases of impingement need surgery and which do not? This can be among the most difficult decisions to make when dealing with pitchers. One of the problematic elements is that surgery to treat this problem is comparatively not very successful. As noted above, in general there are likely a number of different structural abnormalities in the shoulder that are in play with this injury. Some of them are adaptive and are considered ‘normally abnormal’ for pitchers. Others are problematic. Separating these two is something about which even experts readily disagree. It is difficult (and perhaps foolish in this setting) to quote surgery success rates, but in general they are not the best. There is a reason behind the old saying that for pitchers “If it’s the elbow, call the surgeon. If it’s the shoulder, call the preacher.” Question 5: What is done during surgery? This is widely variable depending on the specific structures that are injured, and (quite honestly) the particular views of the operating surgeon. I was recently watching a lecture on just this subject that featured a panel of a number of the preeminent North American surgeons that treat these problems. The differences of opinion and differences in strategy between surgeons were substantial. Yet another reason to make significant efforts to make non-surgical treatment successful. Question 6: How concerning is this for Graterol? This is hard to know from the information available. As stated earlier, the term ‘impingement’ can mean a wide variety of things- some more concerning than others. One of the positives in this case would seem to be that Graterol was pitching very effectively quite recently. Thus, this doesn’t seem to be something that has been festering for months. Hopefully that means they’ve ‘caught it early’ and can get things back on track sooner than later. I would imagine he will be out for a few weeks at least, but I would be surprised if he required any surgery in the near future. Overall, many pitchers have occasional blips on the radar with things like this that are improved with rest and rehab and don’t recur in the future. Predicting the future is difficult for anything- and this type of issue especially- but hopefully Graterol can get back on the mound throwing gas soon. Go Twins!

If it weren’t for bad luck, Miguel Sano might not have any luck at all. The Minnesota Twins announced that their starting third base has undergone a debridement procedure on his lower Achilles to clean and repair the wound which he suffered in the Dominican Republic before spring training. As such the Twins will be without Sano's services on Opening Day.According to the Twins' Executive Vice President and Chief Baseball Officer, Derek Falvey, Sano was flown back to Minnesota on Monday to have his wound readdressed by doctors at the Mayo Clinic. “He’s out of the picture right now for Opening Day, that’s the most noteworthy piece,” said Falvey. "This was the right step to proceed, to have the healing going a little more the way we had hoped, we’re looking at baseball activity again in the middle of April.” Factor in a rehab stint and the Twins are projecting an early May return. The procedure, performed by Dr. Nho Tran at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, will keep Sano off his feet for several days at which point he will be placed in a hard cast to restrict movement. When that is removed, if the healing has progressed, he will return to the walking boot for another week. In all, he could be back on the field and going through an abbreviated spring training process by early April. Sano initially cut his foot while celebrating his team's Dominican Winter League championship in San Pedro de Macoris. "The entire town came out. [At the stage], the president of the team called every player up, one by one, to say thank you for the support," Sano told the Star Tribune. "Someone dropped liquid on the stage, someone else slipped, that person pushed me, I slipped down the starts and I caught my [heel] on them." The initial wound, which required stitches, eventually had a low grade infection that the Twins treated. The area around the wound, which was more of a blunt cut than a clean one, is taut and the movement prior to the placement of the walking boot damaged the sutures from the stress. At that time, the Twins medical staff consulted numerous specialists and determined that the best course of action was to reinsert sutures, attack it aggressively with treatment, and wait to see how it responded. Reassessed after ten days and not seeing the results they desired, the team's medical staff felt that it was in Sano's best interest to clean and close the wound again. During this process, the Twins have been pleased with the amount of work Sano has continued to put in despite being limited in a boot. He has spent significant time in the weight room. "I saw him sweating more frequently than I thought I would given that he’s wearing a boot," Falvey said. "There is not a disappointment in anything about Miguel," manager Rocco Baldelli said. "There’s more of a disappointment for him, I actually feel bad that he’s dealing with what he’s dealing with." With a stint on the injury list, it is likely that Marwin Gonzalez will go forward as the team's Opening Day starting third baseman. "I think we said when we signed Marwin, one of the benefits to having Marwin is that he will play multiple positions and fill for you if there is an issue in one spot," said Falvey. "This is an issue in one spot right now.” Click here to view the article

When the Twins signed Byung Ho Park this offseason, they knew they were getting a strikeout-prone slugger who could regularly destroy baseballs. For about a month and half, he lived up to that billing. Midway through May that changed. He turned into a strikeout prone player who gently hit baseballs. Multiple explanations for this massive slump were offered. Teams finally adjusted to him. He focused too much on hard fastballs. His confidence was gone. As such, the Twins sent him to Rochester to regain his swing. If reports are accurate, however, it would appear that, in addition to the issues above, Park has also been playing through an injury.On May 13, in the opener of a three game series in Cleveland, Park had his first multi-homer game of his career and giving him nine on the season, pulling him within three of the AL pace-setting in Robinson Cano. He was tops among rookies in the junior circuit in home runs, and his overall numbers, while not otherworldly, were highly respectable. When the sun set on the Buckeye State that night, Park carried a .245/.324/.582 batting line. He had the shine of a legit Rookie Of The Year candidate. But just as meteoric as his rise, Park fell quickly back to earth. Over the next 33 games, he posted a measly batting line of .145/.233/.265. His exit velocity average dropped from 90.9 MPH to 87.2. His average fly ball distance went from 250 to 208. As a predominant fly ball hitter, these metrics were troubling. Pitchers confounded him as he reportedly obsessed with higher velocity. His confidence waned. Something was amiss. Park’s Korean Baseball Organization-honed upper-cut swing path has been perfect for mashing breaking balls: Of his 12 home runs, 8 were on curves or sliders. Only Colorado’s Trevor Story (10) and the Dodgers’ Corey Seager (9) hit more on those types of pitches. There was no doubt that Park could manhandle mistakes but he has been carved up when the sequences included fastballs with velocity 93 miles per hour or higher. In fact, Park’s struggles are so prolific, his .089 batting average against fastballs 93 MPH or higher was the lowest in baseball… with the exception of the Phillies’ Ryan Howard (.042). Was it truly the competition and the velocity in the major leagues that bested Park? On one hand, prior to his signing, scouts did express concern over his ability to catch up to inside fastballs. On the other, hitters who graduated from the Korean league have done quite well against these exact same type of fastballs. Pittsburgh’s Jung Ho Kang, Baltimore’s Hyun Soo Kim and Seattle Dae Ho Lee all had averages over .300 on fastballs over 93 MPH this year. Not being able to face elite velocity while developing in Korea certainly did not hinder their careers. Teams also adjusted to Park. While over a month of play seems like a crazytown amount of time to continue to throw middle-middle pitches to a guy who would obliterate them, it really took opponents that long to actively avoid that location. In short, he saw fewer mistakes. Download attachment: output_aTtQFn.gif Another possible factor for Park’s dismal performance emerged during last night’s Rochester Red Wings’ broadcast. As Seth Stohs pointed out on Twitter last night, the Lehigh Valley IronPigs announcers, noting Park’s absence from the game, said that Park had been struggling with a hand injury -- one that had lingered since spring training -- and was unable to maintain proper contact with the bat. Per the broadcast: On Friday Brad Steil, the Twins' Director of Minor League Operations, dismissed the broadcast banter, writing in an email to Twins Daily that there is nothing accurate about that report. "Park does not have a hand injury and he didn't have a hand injury (or anything else) in spring training," Steil noted. "He does have some wrist soreness at the moment, but it’s not something that prevents him from playing. Players deal with bumps, bruises, soreness, and general fatigue throughout the course of a six month season, and we will occasionally give them days off to help manage those things." That kind of information seems noteworthy. It would appear, however, that there were no reports of Park’s condition mentioned anywhere dating back to spring training. To be sure, this would not be the first time a player has downplayed an injury in an effort to keep playing. While rest would be in their best interest, competitiveness and machismo drives them to play night after night in spite of falling numbers and aching body parts. In baseball, communicating with the coaching and medical staff the extent of an injury can be complicated and certainly a language barrier (even with a translator) can also add a wrinkle. Even so, if the team had knowledge of a hand injury dating back to spring training, the subsequent poor performance should have necessitated some time off rather than continuing to insert him into the lineup, further damaging his confidence. Park’s slump could be both an issue of confidence and a nagging injury. Teams did adjust and Park seemingly did not adjust with them. At the same time, the same balls he was hitting hard into play simply were not hit with as much vigor as of late and a hand injury would be one viable reason for that. Whether you view the hand injury as an excuse rather than an explanation for his performance is inconsequential. What does matter is his ability to hit again. Regardless of the current circumstance, Park needs confidence and rest and Rochester is an appropriate setting for both. Click here to view the article