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Less than two weeks until Opening Day and some things are taking shape while other things remain undetermined. Some things won't really be determined in Ft. Myers, such as the split in playing time between Sanchez and Jeffers. Some things are taking shape. Here are some of my observations: 1) Byron Buxton has batted lead off. Would the Twins consider having a guy who homered once every 13 plate appearances on top of the order? Luis Arraez is more of the classical lead off guy, but he's hit down in the order when both he and Buxton have been in the lineup. 2) Positions played--Kirilloff has played left, right and first base, Gordon has played second and short, So far, Gordon hasn't played in the outfield and Urshela hasn't played shortstop, where a week ago he was projected to be the starter, 3) Taylor Rogers looks like he's going to be the closer. He is pitching in the early innings against as many major leaguers as he can. 4) The pitchers seem to be ahead of the hitters. The Twins haven't looked great at the plate, but the opponents aren't hitting much either. 5) The rotation seems to be taking shape, but it looks like there will be room for multiple-inning relief or openers. To start the season, it appears that the young arms won't be going even five innings. Gray and Bundy might be ready to go six by Opening Day. 6) There's a chance that a couple of rookies will be on the pitching staff. Duran has been impressive as has Winder. With Dobnak's injury, there would seem to be a starting job available for Winder (or maybe coming in after the opener). 7) It doesn't seem that any non-roster players have forced their way on the roster so far. Beckham has gotten in a lot of games, and Smeltzer has had two good performances, but there haven't been many wow moments from non-roster players.

With all the technological advancements made in baseball, its easy to get lost in the mess. There's new stats that make zero sense to some people, but the issue is just understanding what they tell us. Batting average and ERA are easy to grasp. What percentage of this batter's at-bats have resulted in hits? How many earned-runs does this pitcher give up on average in 9 innings? These are how we read stats, because they answer our questions. So what question does launch angle and exit velocity answer? "It just shows how hard a player hits the ball.", is an answer that makes me cringe because its so far from the truth. Yes, it is used to see who's hitting the ball the hardest, but that's not a question we need answered. The question shouldn't be "how hard can he hit it?", rather we should be asking "how well does he hit it?" and "how often does he hit it well?". What makes for a well hit ball? The magic numbers lie between 10 to 30 degrees. Batted balls that are hit at these angles off the bat have the greatest chance to fall for a hit (or better yet home runs). Why does this matter? Because if a player is able to hit a ball consistently this way, he will have more hits (higher batting average for those who will never be convinced that Statcast is a good thing). Even if a guy can't hit the ball 100+ mph, he can have success with a good launch angle. There is an opposite end of the Statcast love-hate spectrum. Those that gush over exit velocity and nothing else. This group of people are just as bad, if not worse, than Statcast haters. This is the over excitable group that is driving the non-believers away. Don't get me wrong, I love it when guys hit 110+ mph moonshots. But if a guy hits a ball 100 mph and grounds out to third, its just a ground out. Launch angle should be the most important thing we look at when it comes to analyzing hitters. Is it okay for players to have low launch angles? Absolutely! Dee Gordon is wasting his time if he's trying to lift the ball over the fence because he's built and has the ability to slap the ball up the middle and leg out singles. For players like Mookie Betts or Chris Taylor, launch angle is extremely important because they lack size and and blazing speed. Betts (5'9" 180lbs) and Taylor (6'1" 190lbs) look the exact opposite of power hitters, but they are still able to hit 20+ homers a year. Chris Taylor is a perfect example of a player that revived his career by improving his average launch angle. Below are his average launch angle, average exit velocity, % of batted balls hit between 15 and 30 degrees, along with his corresponding stats. 2015 and 2016 Avg. Launch Angle............................11.0 deg. Avg. Exit Velocity...............................86.6 mph Stats: .187/.236/.277 2017 and 2018 Launch Angle....................................12.0 deg. Exit Velocity.......................................87.1 mph Stats: .281/.344/.488 It took just a 1 degree increase in average launch angle and 0.5 mph increase in average exit velocity to go from a -1.0 WAR player to a 4.9 WAR player. Chris Taylor is not the only example either. Here is another example, this time looking at Anthony Rendon. This was a player who was already a solid hitter who was able to progresses even more. 2015 and 2016 Avg. Launch Angle............................14.5 deg. Avg. Exit Velocity...............................90.5 mph Stats: .268/.346/.419 WAR: 4.4 2017 and 2018 Launch Angle....................................18.2 deg. Exit Velocity.......................................89.6 mph Stats: .300/.399/.521 WAR: 6.0 Rendon's improvements also show us that a slight decrease in average exit velocity does not cause is drop in offensive production. Rendon also increased his average launch angle by 3.7 degrees and had a huge jump in offensive value, making him one of the most underrated third basemen in the MLB. In closing, if I was not able to change anyone's mind about the use of Statcast data, I hope I was able to prove that this information has a place in the game. Radar guns were once seen as overrated too when collecting data on pitchers.

Joe Mauer has been with us a long time and it shows – he is currently number 9 all time right behind Hrbek (16 games difference). Joe has 1731 and if he plays 125 games this year 74 games will tie him with Mickey Vernon for sixth place on the Franchise list and he needs 136 to tie Ozzie Bluege for 5th. In case you wonder – Harmon Killebrew is number one with 2329 ahead of Sam Rice. And if you wonder who is next on the list – Brian Dozier 851. Mauer has the most hits of any current Twin with 1986 (#8 on franchise list) which means we should have a 2000 hit celebration this spring – but problem not 3000 any time soon. The Franchise leader is Sam Rice with 2889 and Kirby Puckett is second with 2304 – just a reminder of how good he was. Rod Carew is 5th with 2085 because of Calvin Griffith big mouth and racial insult or he could have made number one since he has 3053 for his career. If Joe matches last years 160 he will have 2054 and pass Killebrew and be right behind Carew for 6th. Dozier is 42nd with 835 and right behind Greg Gagne. If Brian matches his 167 hits he will be at 1002 hits and we can have another celebration in the fall. That would put him right behind Roy Smalley for number 34. Mauer had 36 doubles last year which put him 4th all time in franchise doubles and if he matches last years total he will be in 2nd place behind Sam Rice and ahead of Judge and Puckett. In one more year he should challenge for number one if he continues his current pace. Dozier is in 34th place with 181 right behind Greg Gagne and matching last years total will put him 26th right behind Heinie Manush. Home Runs is where Dozier in six years has far surpassed Mauer in his 14. Mauer is #14 between Cuddyer and Jacque Jones while Dozier is #12 just ahead of Cuddyer and behind Jim Lemon. Dozier has 151, Mauer 137, Mauer might pass Cuddyer, but no more than that next year while Dozier if he matches last year will pass Roy Sievers for #9 right behind Jim Lemon. Killebrew, Hrbek, Allison, Morneau, Oliva, Puckett, Gaetti make a nice recognizable -1 – 8 on the Homerun scale. Mauer has 875 RBI’s which puts him behind Goose Goslin for number #9 and if he can match last years 71 he will move past Goslin and within one of Tony Oliva. Dozier fits in at number 34 again (with 439)b and if he matches last years 93 he will move to #25 behind Eddie Yost and pass Brunansky, Kubel, Jones, and Smalley from the Twins teams. Batting average is difficult to predict because it is not an accumulating – counting stat. Joe Mauer has taken a plunge since his catching days. At 308 he is between Shane Mack and Brian Harper. Rod Carew is untouchable and is followed by Manush, Rice, Goslin, Puckett. Mauer’s best hope is to hold his position. Behind Harper are Cronin, Oliva, and Knoblauch. In career OBP Mauer is tied with Chuck Knoblauch for fourth. Like BA this is not a counting stat so he could go up or down Rod Carew is tied with Buddy Myers for number one all time with 393 and Mauer is 391. In Between is John Stone who played only 5 of his 11 years with the this Franchise. The weakness of stats like this and all percentage stats is that the fewer the years the better chance you have to place high, but unfortunately we do not have anyone – including Dozier who would be in the top 50. In slugging percentage Dozier returns to the list at number 19 (452) and Joe Mauer (443) is at 25. Killebrew is number one at 514 for his career – and that is really great. I was actually pleasantly surprised to see Mauer that high and equally as surprised to see Dozier that low. If you are an OPS fan Mauer is at position 12 with 834. Killebrew is number one at 892. Dozier at 780 is just below Jacque Jones at 33. Killebrew leads in total bases at 4026 and Mauer is 8 at 2856 with Mickey Vernon and Hrbek right about him. If he matches last year he will pass Oliva and take number 5 behind Judge, Puckett, Rice, and Killebrew. Nice list. Dozier is in position 35 with 1507 – if he matches last year he will jump to 23 right behind Michael Cuddyer. Since there are so many complaints about Mauer grounding in to double plays I had to check that out. Killebrew is number 1 with 238 – Mauer is number 2 with 199. Killebrew played 21 years – Mauer 14. I guess there is some truth here. One more surprising negative stat – Killebrew as expected is first in strikeouts with 1629 and Mauer is fifth with 948 and sure to pass Kirby Puckett for fourth and Hunter for third this year. Killebrew – if we take his 21 years (disregard how much he played each year) averages 77 strikeouts per year – take note Sano. Joe for his 14 years averages 67. Miguel Sano in just three years makes the top 50 – he ranks #30 behind Larry Hisle who had twice as many at bats, Guzma, etc. With an average year, which means not playing 162 games, he will move in to the range of 15 – Greg Gagne. Dozier is number 11 on the list and his Strike out rate should bring him up with Gary Gaetti at number 6. And finally, back to the positive, Mauer is 3rd in WAR behind Carew and Killebrew.