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After weeks of uncertainty, the Minnesota Twins’ front office is starting to materialize. The Twins announced the hiring of Derek Falvey as the Vice President and Chief Baseball Officer at the beginning of October but the role of General Manager remained vacant. Now, according to multiple reports, the Twins appear on the verge of hiring Thad Levine as just the sixth General Manager since relocating to Minnesota.As Falvey’s Cleveland Indians trounced the Chicago Cubs in the first game of the 2016 World Series, the Star Tribune’s Lavelle Neal broke the news that Levine has “emerged as a candidate” to fill the GM position. Shortly thereafter, Dallas Morning News’ Rangers beat writer Evan Grant tweeted, confirming the Star Tribune report that Levine is expected to join the Twins. Levine is an interesting balance to Falvey’s background from Cleveland’s analytical-oriented front office. Since coming into baseball with the Colorado Rockies, the 44-year-old Levine has spent 11 seasons with the Texas Rangers in the Assistant General Manager’s position, overseeing the statistical analysis among other things for the team. The Rangers, however, are far from front-runners in baseball’s analytics game: According to an informal 2015 ESPN report, the Rangers fell towards the bottom of the league as an organization that eschews statistical analysis (although ahead of the Twins) and opted for more of the standard scouting practice. Meanwhile, in a 2014 Reddit chat, Levine addressed some of those concerns. “As a "younger" front office, we used to be younger than we are now, we were considered an analytical group, when in practice, we were much more scouting focused in our decision making,” Levine said. “In the past five years, we have made significant investments in analytics both in people and systems.” It’s hard to completely judge an organization’s analytical strengths or how much they have grown but, as it stands today, the Rangers have three people listed on their front office who appear dedicated to analytics, including Todd Slavinsky, a University of Minnesota-Morris graduate, as the Director of Baseball Analytics. The Twins, too, have three staffers from their analytics department listed on their front office page, an area they were hoping to grow with the addition of Falvey. In a 2011 Washington Post profile on Levine, Levine said that he believed the biggest advantage a team could have is hiring the best talent evaluators. He noted that there were approximately 30-to-50 of these baseball oracles floating around the game and that he was focused on hiring several of them to give his team the upper hand. “The Rangers complement the recommendations from their scouts with statistical analysis, not the other way around,” wrote the Post’s Adam Kilgore. In that same Reddit chat, Levine submitted an interesting nugget regarding the methods of the Rangers front office. He said that the team monitors Twitter and occasionally finds inspirations for potential trades. “[A]t the trade deadline, we are all on Twitter, because you may be surprised how many trade discussions are inspired or refined by tweets.” Levine also said that the front office staff would use all of the publicly available sites such as Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference and others to obtain information. This is by no means a bad thing, however you have to believe that while teams like the Rangers are finding that type of info, organizations like the Cubs, Astros and Dodgers are creating their own research firms in-house. That said, the Rangers methods have been successful and Levine has been instrumental in some of the talent acquisition that has created the strong American League West dynasty. After all, Texas has made it to the postseason in four of the last six years as well as the World Series twice. In his tenure, the Rangers were able to acquire Mike Napoli, Cliff Lee, Josh Hamilton Carlos Lee, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia for various pieces of talent. “Trades tend to be unique one trade to the next,” Levine commented. “Baseball is all about talent evaluation. Everyone understands the concept of scouting two shortstops. But our jobs also require us to scout each GM. So depending on which GM you are negotiating with, the discussion will go differently.” Overall, Levine’s background seems balanced in both the new school and old school mentalities. One of Levine’s purported strengths while with the Rangers was being able to quickly diagnose the team’s in-season weaknesses and respond swiftly. For years the Twins seemed to fail at identifying roster weaknesses, reacting too late or in the wrong way to these issues. If Levine is able to transport that skill from one organization to another, that should be a huge benefit. It is no small task rebuilding the Twins, but Thad Levine has been in that position before with the Texas Rangers and has two World Series visits to show for it. Click here to view the article

Terry Ryan was fired on Monday, July 18 as the Minnesota Twins General Manager. Ryan was the Twins GM from 1994-2007 and again from 2011 until now. The end of his career will be marred by some of the worst seasons in Twins history. That, along with the current worst record in baseball, led to Ryan's demise. It shouldn't be what defines him. Ryan took a small market team and made them into a consistent playoff contender through much of the 2000s. Billy Beane constructed the Oakland Athletics into a playoff contender on a small budget. He receives more praise for it. Mainly because of a book. During the same time Beane was constructing his roster, Ryan was doing it at Minnesota. The Twins trades in the late 90s led to contributors like Joe Mays, Cristian Guzman and a left-hander with a Bugs Bunny change-up named Johan Santana. These types of moves set up a roster that averaged nearly 89 wins a season from 2001-2010. An average better than Oakland's over that time period. He also relied plenty on talent from within the organization. Torii Hunter. Justin Morneau. Joe Mauer. During a time where teams with big budgets were trying their hardest to outspend the rest of the world, the Twins thrived on shrewd moves and home-grown players. Of course, it was a team that only won one playoff series between 2001-2010 despite making the playoffs six times in that time span. That's not necessarily on him. Neither is the fact that his predecessor, Bill Smith, couldn't build off what Ryan had put together when he took over in 2007. It got so bad that Ryan came back on an interim, eventually full-time, in late 2011. He couldn't bring back the magic over the next few years despite having a one of the deepest minor league systems in all of baseball. Change can be good and in this case change was needed for the organization. It had to be Ryan. A guy who has lost favor with much of the fan base but a guy that I will always remember as the one who put together all those fun seasons in the 2000s.

In September 1994, Terry Ryan took the helm of one of baseball’s more celebrated front offices. The Minnesota Twins had recently won two World Series, in 1987 and 1991, and much of the credit for assembling those teams was assigned to the scouting and player development personnel. Ryan had joined the Twins in January, 1986 as scouting director and worked his way up to being general manager Andy MacPhail’s key assistant. After MacPhail left to assume the presidency of the Chicago Cubs, naming Ryan the Twins’ new general manager seemed the natural continuation move.Nevertheless, Ryan’s new position was far from ideal. On one side he had Tom Kelly, a successful manager who had a definitive idea of what he liked in a ballclub, coming off of the two World Series victories, and wielding a lot of influence within the organization. On the other he had owner Carl Pohlad, who, while committed to winning, was also very concerned with the bottom line and beginning to focus much of his energy on lobbying for a new stadium in Minneapolis. The team itself had finished the recent strike-shortened season 53-60, with the league’s highest ERA and the top two batting stars from the World Series--Kirby Puckett and Kent Hrbek--well past their prime. Moreover, the farm system, which had supplied most of the talent for the championship runs, was slipping; Baseball America ranked the Twins farm system 16th of the 28 organizations. I originally wrote the following analysis of Terry Ryan as GM of the Minnesota Twins for The National Pastime, 2012: Short but Wondrous Summers: Baseball in the North Star State. I was the editor of the publication—one I heartily recommend by the way for those interested in the history of baseball in Minnesota--and pulled the essay just prior to publication when the publisher informed me that we had gone over our allotted page count. It is great to have this outlet to finally run the article. Due to its length and a natural break point about half way through, I am breaking it into two halves. With the baseball world shut down because of the ongoing strike, Ryan could not make any major league player moves during his first offseason as general manager. Once the strike was settled, Ryan’s hand was soon forced by the team’s terrible start to the 1995 season; the club stood at 17-42 on June 30. In July, Ryan swapped four of his veteran pitchers--Scott Erickson, Kevin Tapani, Mark Guthrie, and Rick Aguilera--for eight prospects. Ryan’s first significant foray into the trade market did not bode well for the future, although in fairness, the pitchers Ryan traded were not stars (except for Aguilera, whose contract was expiring at the end of the season). Of the prospects, only one, Frank Rodriguez, was ranked in Baseball America’s annual listing of the top 100, and only one, Ron Coomer, already 28 years old, went on to become a major league regular. Ryan had better luck that offseason with a batch of free agent signings. In an effort to bolster his struggling club Ryan signed a number of veteran free agents of mixed quality: Paul Molitor, Dave Hollins, Roberto Kelly, Greg Myers, and Rick Aguilera, brought back after the midseason trade. Amazingly, all five of these moves worked out and the Twins improved their winning percentage by nearly 100 points over 1995. One way to quantitatively evaluate a general managers moves is by using the Wins Above Replacement metric (WAR), a sabermetric measure denominated in wins, which is now gaining more mainstream recognition. By combining batting, base running, fielding and pitching statistics, WAR estimates how many wins a player produced for his team above a “replacement player,” generally classified as the best player a team could land on short notice without surrendering any talent in return, such as a veteran triple-A player with some major league experience. As a benchmark, 8 WAR represents an MVP caliber season, while 5 WAR would typically qualify as an All-Star season. The five veteran free agents all turned in positive WAR seasons in 1996, led by Molitor at 3.4 and Hollins at 2.5. While the team may have been playing better in 1996, the front office suffered a humiliation in the annual player draft. Travis Lee, selected second overall, claimed he should be a free agent because the club had not followed a little-known rule and offered him a contract within 15 days of the draft. The Twins believed they were following Lee's request not to negotiate until after the Olympics. With a hearing scheduled for September 24 to determine Lee’s status, Lee and the Twins tried to negotiate an agreement. Lee was reportedly willing to accept a $2.1 million signing bonus ($100,000 more than first overall pick Kris Benson), but the Twins elected to take their chances on the hearing. In the event, Lee (along with three other players who used the same tactic) was declared a free agent and signed with Arizona for an astounding total package of $10 million. Not surprisingly, a team built around mediocre veteran free agents and a 39-year-old Molitor did not remain competitive. Over the next four years, from 1997 to 2000, the Twins could not win more than 70 games in a season. A large part of the team’s struggles can also be traced to an unforeseen collective disappointment from the club’s top prospects. Had some of them performed closer to expectations, Ryan’s strategy of filling in with veteran free agents may have led to a club on the fringes of contention. From 1992 to 1996 the Twins had 14 different players who were ranked among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects. From the five position players, two of whom were ranked in the top 20 at one point, the team received just five seasons of at least 400 plate appearances: two from Todd Walker and three from Rich Becker. The return from the pitchers was even more dismal. The nine pitchers combined to deliver only four seasons with more than 150 innings pitched. Even this overstates the case; only one of these four seasons was accompanied by an ERA below 5.00. It remains unknowable whether these players were simply overrated or a flaw existed in the Twins player development system but in any case a large group of highly touted prospects failed to live up to expectations. Ryan had some success with unheralded prospect Marty Cordova. Already 25 years old when he debuted as the regular left fielder in 1995, Cordova went on to win the Rookie of the Year Award. He followed up with a stellar 1996, but then struggled through two seasons with an OPS below .750. In 1996, Ryan also traded an aging Dave Hollins to the Mariners for a young David Ortiz, though he didn’t exceed 300 at-bats with the Twins until 2000. Despite the Twins’ struggles at the major league level and a change of focus by the top executives, Ryan remained committed to building his ballclub. After the 1997 season Ryan traded star second baseman Chuck Knoblauch to the Yankees for several players, most notably lefthander Eric Milton and shortstop Cristian Guzman, both of whom went on to become valuable major league regulars. The two youngsters added significantly more Wins Above Replacement than Ryan surrendered. Later in this article I will summarize the team's moves under Ryan using WAR. As the decade rolled on, Ryan continued to pick up useful ballplayers in trades--usually surrendering less than he received--and minor free agent deals. Although not stars, these role players included outfielders Dustan Mohr and Bobby Kielty, and pitchers Kyle Lohse and Joe Mays. Ryan also had a knack for knowing which of his prospects to hang on to. Of course, some of this was by necessity--by 2000 Ryan was operating with baseball’s lowest payroll, and the Twins were being mentioned as a contraction target. “Scouting and development have to provide us with a constant flow of talent, or we’re in big trouble,” Ryan acknowledged. “We know who we are. We try to be fair, try to be honest, try to be sincere. We have a passion from the front office down to the players. One thing we are is accountable. We don’t try to be something we’re not.” Although the Twins consistently ranked no higher than the middle of the pack in Baseball America’s minor league organization rankings during the mid to late 1990s, the Twins had some talent in the system and much of it had graduated to the majors by 2001. Along with veteran pitcher Brad Radke, key regulars included catcher A.J. Pierzynski, first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz, second baseman Luis Rivas, third baseman Corey Koskie, and outfielders Matt Lawton, Torii Hunter, and Jacque Jones. Ryan’s trade acquisitions filled in nicely around these homegrown products, and the Twins finished the 2001 season in second place at 85-77. Nevertheless, with no new stadium on the horizon, major league baseball (with the compliance of the Twins ownership) targeted the Twins for contraction. Ryan, though, stayed on, hoping the team would survive, and knowing that he had put together a pretty good team. “That’s what makes this such a tough thing to accept,” Ryan lamented. “We think that with a little tinkering with our roster in 2002, we’d be right there. We’ve got a lot of things in place. If we get through this thing, we feel we have a chance to be pretty good.” He reportedly turned down an opportunity to take over the Toronto Blue Jays for a bump in salary. Following his lead, the rest of the key front office employees remained as well. Ryan’s determination was rewarded when the team escaped elimination, partially due to a local court ruling. In another significant decision that offseason, Ryan named coach Ron Gardenhire as the replacement for longtime manager Tom Kelly, who had retired. Otherwise Ryan did very little tinkering for 2002, although the pitching staff was now led by veteran Rick Reed. Trading from a relative surplus of outfielders, Ryan had acquired Reed during the previous season for 29-year-old outfielder Matt Lawton, a useful player but with little remaining upside. In 2002 the 37-year-old Reed turned his last good season with a WAR of 2.6. Gardenhire managed this team superbly, most notably in crafting a strong bullpen anchored by veteran Twins draftee Eddie Guardado, and led the squad to its first division championship in eleven years. The team beat Oakland in the ALDS before falling to Anaheim four games to one in the ALCS. The Twins could easily have fallen from their perch. In 2002 the Twins ranked 27th in payroll, offering little flexibility to fill in for injuries, and several players seemed to be plateauing or regressing. But Ryan was in the midst of a great run. The farm system had been rebuilt so that it now contained two future MVPs (Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer--the first overall pick in 2001) and a star outfielder in Michael Cuddyer. Moreover, Ryan had bolstered his pitching staff by bringing in future Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana in a one-sided swap of Rule 5 draft picks in 1999. After repeating as division champion in 2003 Ryan made one his best moves, swapping catcher A.J. Pierzynski to San Francisco for several players, most notably closer Joe Nathan and starter Francisco Liriano. Behind the influx of talent, Minnesota won a third consecutive division championship in 2004 and another in 2006. After slipping to third in 2007, though, Ryan surprised many observers by announcing it was time to move on. “This is a good thing for me,” Ryan said of his retirement. “My health’s intact. My marriage is intact. That’s a difficult thing to do in baseball.” He also left a pretty solid nucleus for successor Billy Smith, another well-respected, long time Twins front office employee, though relatively unknown and heralded more for his administrative acumen than his talent evaluation skills. The players certainly recognized Ryan’s accomplishments. “I’ve always been on his side,” commented outfielder Torii Hunter. “For what he has and the limitations he has with payroll, he’s done a great job. You give this guy a Yankee payroll, and I promise you he will do 10 times better than any other GM out there.” To read more about the history of baseball operations and the GM, please buy our new book In Pursuit of Pennants–Baseball Operations from Deadball to Moneyball via the publisher or at your favorite on-line store. Click here to view the article