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As I read the entries on the TD sight we all imagine getting players in Free agency or big trades. This is especially true when we see the Padres making their moves. What I really liked was the WAR team ratings that MLB.com got from Fangraphs and I used for the Blog photo. This is really significant to me. It shows us ranked fifth, but there are five teams close behind us and only two in the AL ahead of us. So any move we make has to keep us above the teams right behind us like the White Sox. And ideally we would catch Houston and New York. This means any signing has to add WAR to our team and we have to subtract any WAR associated with the player we lose or demote. Trevor Bauer jumps the other teams, but looking at the rest of the top free agents - we do not need another catcher - Realmuto cannot get us there, does LeMahieu replace Arraez with enough positive growth - no. Ozuna could replace Cruz, but would not give us more than Cruz provided so it might be good long term, but it would not make a one year rise in team strength. Springer is great, but Kiriloff might be, Buxton might play a full year. He might give us a rise, but not all the way. Is Siemian enough of a SS and WAR player to lift the team when Polanco is subtracted from the WAR total? No. Sugaro? Who knows? He might be the wild card and maybe he can lift the bottom of the rotation enough to make the difference that we need. Hendriks would definitely give us a boost, especially since we have jettisoned so many, but if we subtract those we lost what would the net gain be? So we are in a rut. We are good, we will stay good, but will we rise? I think Trevor Bauer might be the only one who can do that for us and I do not feel like he is on our radar.

The baseball owners through their lackey – Rob Manfred – have declared that they lost substantial and unsubstantiated amounts of money in 2020. A May 2020 CNBC report said, “Under the MLB’s plan, the highest-paid players could lose about 80% of their salaries, while players making the least amount could keep up to 90% of their pay. The plan calls for players to retain their salary via a tier system. In short, the more a player is scheduled to earn for the 2020 season, the less he retains under the plan.” There were alterations to the initial plan, but executives were doing what they always do, reducing losses. In August 2020, FOX business reported, “Major League Baseball salaries plummeted to their lowest level since 1996 this year during a coronavirus pandemic that forced a shorter season and limited paychecks for players…” October 20 Bleacher Report said, “After the COVID-19 pandemic forced 898 regular-season games to go on without fans this summer, MLB's 30 teams dropped a combined total of $3 billion in operating losses. "The clubs have done a really good job locally and we tried to do a good job centrally," Manfred told Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. "The liquidity is sufficient to get us through 2020. I think if we’re faced with limited activity next year and the kind of losses that we suffered this year, again, it will become more of a problem." Every article on TD and other sites say that salaries are going way down, free agency will be highly impacted and there were a number of very good players – Wong, Hand among them that were released when in the past their options would have been picked up. Since the wealth of owners, the paycheck for Manfred and the pay to the players is in a stratosphere that I cannot imagine it is still fascinating to see the billionaires taking advantage of this Covid opportunity. We can look back to the great depression when the baseball player was in a similar situation and then the wages were really determined by attendance. In a fascinating Sabr article the author found that the actual cuts in players’ salaries were common but did not match the percent that the drop in attendance would have demanded. Instead, like we are seeing so far this offseason, “When an owner determined that a player was no longer performing at a level worthy of his salary, he was more likely to waive him than cut his salary. When he was waived, he was likely to be replaced by a lower cost player, and the lowest cost players were almost always rookies.” The essay also saw a change in long term contracts, “as the economy worsened, teams proved even less willing to make long term commitments to players.” http://research.sabr.org/business/download/BoB-2009-2.pdf In 1918 the Spanish Flu and WWI had taken a toll on baseball too and the season was reduced in length to 126 games. “In desperate need of hitters after losing some 13 players to the war, Red Sox manager Ed Barrow turned to his best pitcher, Ruth, who had won 24 games the year before (2.01 ERA), while hitting just two home runs.” In May: The Babe got the flu, and when the Red Sox physician treated him with silver nitrate, it only made things worse, causing him to choke and pass out. After being rushed to the hospital, there were rumors that Ruth was on his death bed. https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-spanish-flu-baseball-1918-f498f2d4-7726-4a02-a5f5-59c63d982764.html As a side note - Prince Fielder was owed $24million this year, despite the fact he was not playing. That is the beauty of guaranteed contracts and why owners are hesitant to give them. Ken Griffey gets #3.6 million through 2024, and Manny Ramirez gets $2 M per year through 2026. "Bobby Bonilla is a retired MLB player who last took the field in 2001, but, 20 years later, is still getting paid $1.2 million a year by the New York Mets. In fact, he'll get p/aid $1,193,248.20 a year every year until 2035, when Bonilla is 72 entire years old." https://www.sportscasting.com/retired-athletes-big-paydays-former-teams/ During the World Series a crisis was averted as the two teams traveled by train together and talked about holding out for more money. The public was irate and soon Boston would be trading Ruth – retaliation? Who knows? Whether the reserve clause, the outlaw leagues, or the changes in media coverage the tussle between owner and player has never been smooth and no sport is immune to the economy, wars, or other factors. Now we have a CBA coming to an end, terrible player/owner/management relationships, players released, and no idea what the next season will be. How do those who are supposed to put together a roster manipulate through this haze? What will the Twins do? What do players do? I have to add this addendum - the Twins just let go two of their long-term coaches from the Appalachian League - Smith and Reed had a long history with us, but that means nothing in the new cut throat MLB that is cutting teams, leagues, coaches, players. Is Covid a reason or an excuse? Stay tuned.

There's been talk for a very long time about the Twins getting Josh Donaldson and moving Miguel Sano to 1st. Last week, I listed all the reasons why signing Donaldson was a good idea. Today, I'm going to list the reasons why it might not be such a good idea. PRICE One of the main things that might not be good about signing Donaldson is his price. He wants a whopping $110 million for 4 years. (Sorry Donaldson, if you want that much, you may have to wait until February to sign!) The Twins and Braves have reportedly given him offers, but they're not as much as he is asking for. AGE Along with this is the fact that he is entering his age 34 season. So, when the contract is up, he'll be 38. And not every player is Nelson Cruz in their late 30s. He may not be as valuable in the end of his contract as he is in the beginning and teams may not want to risk getting a player who is nearing the end of their career. INJURY RATE Josh Donaldson has been injured in 2 of the last 3 seasons. This year was a great season, with no injuries, but who knows about the future. Showing his past injury record, teams may not want to sign Donaldson because of how often he gets injured and cannot play, even though he is a good player when he is not injured and can play. SANO There's something that I started wondering about right after I published "The Benefits of Signing Donaldson". What if Sano is WORSE at first base and is better playing at third base? Will they have to alternate with their third basemen like they do with their catchers? What do you think? Do you agree that Josh Donaldson isn't all he's cracked up to be, or do you think they should go big and sign Donaldson? Write your opinion in the comments! Note: There is a half solution to the Sano problem. If Sano can't play first, then they can have Marwin Gonzalez play first and look for a real first baseman at the trade deadline in July. But, Sano and Donaldson both have great bats and having them alternate would give them less chances to meet personal home run records. However, Sano is an option to play designated hitter if Cruz needs a day off, along with Mitch Garver.

Per Dan Hayes the Twins have signed Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. Homer Bailey will be an interesting project 5th starter and Rich Hill will be really solid, when he’s healthy and that won’t be until July at best. These signings don’t fit Falvey’s “impact pitching” he said he’d go get, a quote he probably is wishing he never said now. Homer Bailey Coming off his best year since 2013, Homer Bailey pitched about league average with the Royals and A’s totaling 163 and a third innings with a FIP of 4.11, he also possessed a respectable BB/9 of 2.9 and K/9 of 8.2. When comparing this to Kyle Gibson’s year last year with a FIP of 4.26, BB/9 of 3.2, and a K/9 of 9.0, Homer Bailey looks a lot like Gibby’s replacement in the rotation. Wes Johnson’s black magic abilities here are certainly intriguing adding the hope that Bailey could be more than just Gibby’s replacement. Rich Hill A healthy Rich Hill that can go all season and you’re sure you’ll get 170 IP from, is impact pitching. However, Rich Hill is 40 and coming off injury, so *maybe* *hopefully* come July or August he can be an impact pitcher. But that’s a whole lot of hoping for a 40 year old. Hill has totaled 327 Innings in the last 3 years with FIPs of 3.72 3.97 and 4.10. In that we can already see that Hill has been in a steady decline, so that hope of impact pitching I stated earlier might not even be true at all and he could just end up another guy at the back of the rotation. If that is the case, the Twins really will have a plethora of arms to use in the 4/5 slots with Bailey, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe and potentially Hill. Spending only $10 Million guaranteed here is really good and leaves room for a potential Donaldson deal which would transform the offseason into somewhat of a success at the least.

Hubert Humphrey coined the term "cold Omaha" when he said that the Twin Cities would be a Cold Omaha without professional sports. I believe the Blue Jays must have thought they did not want to be a Canadian Minnesota if they did not sign some players and make the club interesting. Well the Twins are interesting and last year they were winning. Now we do not have Schoop and we hope (and I expect) that Arraez will not regress. We do not have CJ Cron and we hope we have someone to replace his bat and glove and we do not have Juan Castro so we write about how Avila is actually better than Castro (are we dreaming?). Our pitching got us to the playoffs, but could not win a game in the playoffs. We did pull Berrios too soon, the bats did go quiet, and we had no one beyond Odorizzi to stop the bleeding except Mr Dobnak. So we have signed our top three pitchers (actually we have not given Berrios the extension he needs) and we let go the last two pitchers, but we have not signed anyone to take their place meaning that we expect our rookie/young guys to step in and fill the positions. Fine. The Blue Jays had two down years and they told their fans that the are going to do something about that. So they signed Ryu - a pitcher we were told would not want to leave the warm west coast. Does he know that Toronto is south only if you live in Canada? (Disclaimer - I know they are south of Minneapolis - https://www.ctvnews.ca/sports/who-s-the-north-portland-minneapolis-teams-question-raptors-claim-1.2168407) They also signed Travis Shaw (his name has appeared on some Twins posts too). They signed Tanner Roark, they traded for Chase Anderson (pitcher), they are taking a chance on Matt Shoemaker making a comeback and they signed Japanese pitcher Shun Namaguchi too. And they still have Ken Giles (forget about the Twins trade for him - it is not going to happen). And by the way, they have that young nucleaus - Bichette, Gurerro, and Biggio too (and I do not mean their fathers). I believe we have also talked about our window being now because of our young nucleus. What next? Oh, they are talking to the Red Sox about acquiring David Price who once pitched for the Jays.

As I read our reactions to each missed free agent and the excitement of the winter meetings I have come to the conclusion that the FO really is concerned about readership and postings on TD. I mean we have had a "why we should sign him" article about every FA that has been signed so far. Just to be clear - not signed by us. We went from everyone with an arm that has not fallen off to all the hitters who can add to Bomba mania. We debate, we anguish, and we hope. Well at least we read and post. So imagine if we made the first big signing of the off season. Over - done, nothing to talk about. So we wait. Then we get four articles about the winter meetings which actually turned into reports about other teams signings. So we write about how Dobnak is better than we think (how do you know what we think?). Maybe the Twins would sign another level of pitcher - no. Maybe the next level. How perfect an opportunity for our favorite site. If the Twins had not passed on all the players we have heard from we would not be writing about all the FA that we have never heard of. They are FAs? Wow, who cares? Well we do. Gleeman and the Geek get a chance to really dig deep into the pool of possible. We get to anguish and almost forgot we had 101 wins with this same group of players - sorry we did lose Cron, Perez, and Gibson. But now we can talk about the wisdom of Wisler and trading Eddie Rosario - the player we say was not as good as people think he is but we can trade him to the dumb teams who do not know he is as bad as TD writers think he is. So thank you Mr Falvey and Mr Levine.

When the best is off the table, then the second best is swept up, do we get desperate and jump at the left overs? If we cannot get what we want is it reasonable to say we should get what is left? I cannot buy into that theory. If Bumgartner does not sign with us I can understand. Does that make Kuechel suddenly desirable? The real question is how does he compare with Dobnak, Graterol, Thorpe, Smeltzer. I hate buying out of desperation. The same with Ryu. Why would he sign with us. We are the proverbial bargaining chip. It is the way the Vikings coerced a stadium because the could more to LA. The only question worth asking is whether the free agent we have available has more upside than the players already on the roster. Is the expenditure worthwhile? Dream big, but the train already left the station and we were not on it. So don't pursue free agents just to say we got one.

I was caught up in Dave Schoenfield's article about which teams have the best chance to return to the playoffs from those who were there last year. When I got to the section on the Indians, it read more like an article on the Twins.http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25870218/which-2018-playoff-team-most-likely-miss-year Schoenfield said, "Maybe the most frustrating comment from a front-office executive this offseason came over the weekend from Minnesota Twins general manager Thad Levine at the team's TwinsFest. Asked about Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, Levine answered: "My view ... for doing it is the best time to acquire players of that magnitude is when your window to win is wide-open. Not when you've got your fingers underneath the window and you're trying to jam the window open. I want to do it when we're projected to win the Central and we're ready to put our foot on someone's throat." So, don't sign a star ... unless you're already expected to win the division? Not that Machado and Harper want to sign with the Twins, but no team could benefit from adding a player of that magnitude more than the Twins, who are trying to chase down Cleveland. The Twins have some strong rebound candidates, and the other three teams in the division are bad. Minnesota did add Nelson Cruz and Jonathan Schoop, but imagine Machado or Harper anchoring its lineup." So when do you add a great player? My thought is that you add them when they are available. Do you see any 26 year old stars lining up for next years free agency? As the article states, they might not want to sign with the Twins, but among agents and Free Agents, I think our position is pretty obvious and not very inviting. I still see last years Darvish sweep stakes as more of a show than a real effort (and we are lucky that is all it was). Puckett's Pond rates Brian Harper the best we have ever done. https://puckettspond.com/2011/11/03/best-twins-free-agents-ever/ Twinkie Town gives a depressing recap of Free Agents and Trades https://www.twinkietown.com/2016/7/6/12101434/where-the-twins-have-gone-wrong-a-history Rett Bollinger says Molitor was the best Free Agent signing we have ever made; https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/paul-molitor-is-twins-best-free-agent-signing/c-214194398 I remember when Shannon Sharpe was traded for and made a big difference, when we brought in Chili Davis, and Torrii Hunter to push the other players. Maybe that is what we are doing with Cruz. But the real question is - would you sign Harper or Machado if they were willing to come here? Or would you tell them to hang out for a year or two until we are a better team?

Okay, we know we are not in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes. Be glad. Only Boras can sell him as the $400 million dollar man. If we look closely we know better. What were his stats this year? 1.3 WAR. 248, 34, 100. Yes he had a +133 OPS. Is that worth $40 million a year? He has had 7 years and an accumulated 27.4 WAR - 3.9 per year. What is that worth? Lets me realistic here. The following article says that in this inflated era a player gets $3.8 million per war - that means that for 2018 Harper was worth about $5 Million. If we take his average over his career it means just under $15million. Will he sign for that? Of course not. Boras has the league buffaloed so he will get twice or more for that. https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/7vwjmy/realistic_war_how_much_should_players_actually/ He will argue that these are his prime years coming up and that is true. However, how long is his prime? Most estimates make 32 the maximum. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/ Then what? Look at Pujols. He might be DFA'd now that the Angels have gotten a first baseman and DH. Or Tulowitzki who has been DFA'd with two big years left on his contract. Of course we can always look at the impact that the player has on winning. Harper has been with the Nationals seven years. They have been first 4 times and second 3 times. Of course they also have Scherzer the best pitcher in the NL (I know some like Kershaw) and Strasburg and Rodon and Werth and Turner... Yet they have never made the WS. They lost in the LDS four times 3 - 2. Mr Harper never took them over the top. A team is a team, not a star and bit players. Those who chase Harper or the guy who does not want to play all out, but will play dirty can expend the big bucks, but the Twins have much more affordable options in the next tier. Of course that assumes the Twins want to win and want to spend.

The other guy is always better than what you have – right? Well that is the thought that dominates the off-season and so we are sad that we did not sign Yu Darvish (actually if you saw my posts you know I did not want him). Since we had an article looking at the first ten days and projecting the season I thought it might be good to see what we missed. Yu Darvish just had a memorable melt down over a balk, but even more exciting are his statistics during a stretch that was supposed to be the easy part of the cubs schedule. His line – 0 – 1, 6.00 ERA for three starts, 1.533 WHIP and a -0.1 WAR (yes minus). Then there was the idea of the big trade for Chris Archer – who has a -0.3 WAR, a 5.94 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP, but he is 1 – 0! And all we had to do was give up on Kepler and some other young assets. Of course we did sign some assets because they are better than our minor league prospects – Logan Morrison and his -0.5 WAR is hitting .088, slugging .118 with an OPS of 3.23 and it was worth giving up Chargois and other relief prospects to get Zach Duke with a -0.4 WAR 11.25 ERA and 2.25 Whip and Fernando Rodney with a 0.0 WAR 3.86 ERA, and 1.929 WHIP. The last piece to the puzzle was Lance Lynn who has 0.1 WAR with a 5.00 ERA and 1.778 Whip so we did not have to use Mejia, Romero, or Gonsalves. To be fair that is only 4 of 6 players we picked up and Addison Reed 0.5 WAR, 1.13 ERA is the real thing in the bullpen and Odorizzi has 0.8 WAR and 2.20 ERA and 1.347 WHIP. I guess .333 is a good average in baseball, not sure that applies to signing players. As a person who always prefers the young players I think I would have liked to see Odorizzi and Reed with the other money going to sign Dozier and extend our young players. I would have liked one of our young players instead of Lynn, Duke, and Rodney and maybe kept Chargois who has 0.2 WAR and a 0.00 Era in 5 games and I just might have left Vargas at DH until one of our prospects steps up.

Continuing in the off-season series, today looking at the free agent market for starting pitching: who's available and which members of the current class the Twins could target in the free agent market. The Twins, as most other teams in the league, are in need of starting pitching. They are one of the few teams that consider themselves legitimate postseason contenders - and need to make significant upgrades to the current rotation if they want to make a serious push towards a World Series birth. The returning staff, presumably, for 2018 has essentially three rotation spots locked with Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios and the resurgent Kyle Gibson. Ervin Santana had very solid 2107 season, posting a 3.28 ERA and 211.1 Innings pitched and pitching his way to an All Star game appearance. Not a typical team "Ace", Santana was the most consistent - and consistently good - Twins pitcher during the 2017 season. Jose Berrios emerged after a disappointing 2016 season, to be good for number 2 on the staff in ERA with a 3.89 mark over 145.2 innings. The burgeoning youngster stepped into a rotation spot and lead the team in both K% (22.6%) and FIP (3.84) marks for the staff. Kyle Gibson, on the other hand, played Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde and was a tale of two halves. His 2017 ERA was a very underwhelming 5.07 ERA over 158 Innings, he was demoted in May to AAA, before being called back to the big league club. Upon coming back, however, Gibson seemed revitalized and pitched to a much improved 3.76 ERA in the second half, a dramatic improvement on a terrible 6.31 ERA in the first months of the year. There are some internal candidates for the other two rotation spots, Adelbuerto Mejia and Trevor May ( depending on his Tommy John surgery recovery timetable) may be two options, as well as the up and coming prospects Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero, and others competing for the spots during Spring Training. For the purposes of the article however, we're going to cast aside the notion of filling the spot with internal candidates and see which starting pitchers in free agency the Twins could consider. The 2017-18 Free Agent Starting Pitching Class In an attempt to separate the pack, I have segmented into 3 different "tiers" of pitchers available that i have cleverly named Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 pitchers. Tier One - The "Ace" Type The headlining free agents this off-season will be Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, and if they decline their player options, Masahiro Tanaka and Johnny Cueto. Cueto, coming off a sub-par season and with a lucrative $130 Million dollar contract in hand with San Francisco, is widely considered to be less likely to exercise his option while Tanaka's future is a bit more questionable in New York. Despite Thad Lavines' prior relationship with Yu Darvish in Texas, it is unlikely the Twins as an organization will pay the gargantuan salary due for a pitcher of Davish's caliber, probably approaching or exceeding Zack Greinkes 6 year, 206 million dollar mark. The same holds true of Arrieta and Tanaka, who will more than likely command less than Darvish, but their pedigree will undoubtedly put them in the "Johnny Cueto contract" territory. So, this is befittingly a fairly brief breakdown of the only reason why the Twins - whose 4 year $55 million dollar contract given to Ervin Santana constitutes the largest free agent signing in club history - are probably not in play for the big names in this list. * I will say, as a quick note, the Twins should be in on these pitchers - important to distinguish that. Pitcher contracts being what they are and the ownership in Minnesota's track record - I think its unlikely. The Twins also do not have a TV deal like many other clubs, but - the Twins payroll (which I'm sure I'll discuss at some point this winter) has to increase to accommodate contracts larger than, I'll say, the ownership is comfortable with at this time. Tier Two - The "2/3" Type CC Sabathia The 37 year old lefty is coming off another pretty successful season, posting a 3.69 ERA over 148 Innings. While I'd be surprised to see him get anything more than a 2 or 3 year deal for his remaining years, the annual value of his contract should surpass what the Twins likely would be willing to pay for the aging veteran. All signs signal that he would like to remain in Yankee pinstripes, and the club may be willing to oblige considering his strong postseason performance in 2017. He has been nothing but a consistently strong performer, albeit a few personal issues he's had to overcome in recent years, with stronger-than-you'd-think peripheral numbers (4.11 xFIP and 1.9 fWAR). 2. Lance Lynn The right handed Lynn is another popular name on the free agent market, and for good reason. His 3.43 ERA in 2017 is good enough for second in the '17 free agent class, and while he's not young for a starting pitcher at 30 years old, he's certainly got plenty of productive innings left in the arm. MLB Trade Rumors recently reported he has multiple clubs interested in his services and is seeking a contract in the $110 million dollar range. He will certainly he highly sought after, and the Twins may not be able to keep up with the ensuing bidding war for his services. He could be the most in need of a change of division, with his 5.15 FIP away from Busch Stadium, which might make a transition to the much more pitcher friendly parks in AL Central a good choice, with 2 (or 3) likely rebuilding teams. However, with Lynn's name being very visible and large market (read: Big Spending) teams looking for starting pitching, while I would predict him to be a good fit for the Twins, he is an unlikely sign due to the contract he will likely command. 3. Alex Cobb The 30 year old Cobb is coming off of a very solid '17 campaign, posting solid standard and advanced stats to the tune of a 3.66 ERA, 4.16 FIP and an 86 ERA-. Durability is the major concern with Cobb, as he is yet to complete a MLB season without a trip to the disabled list. However, there is a lot to like about Cobb. He has pitched, very well at times, in the very competitive AL East. He would not be making league switch, as would be the case with Lynn, so familiarity with lineups, parks and the DH would be a positive point for the Twins to consider. He also pitched with much less of a Home/Away FIP split ratio (3.62/4.65 FIP split) than Lynn (4.45/5.15 FIP split). The Rays have attempted - twice - to resign Cobb (reported by Jon Heyman) for $30 million and $40 million respectively in his first two years of arbitration. Cobb should easily surpass these offers this off-season, and it would not surprise me if Lynn and Cobb use each other as benchmarks for the others contract - although Cobb may well be offered less years and dollars because of his injury history. That said, I would expect him to be comfortably (if not exceeding) in the 4-5 year, 65-85 million dollar range (16.25 - 17 Million annually) - both hefty, but perhaps not unreasonably Twins-like numbers. Tier Three - The "3/4/5" Type Its worth prefacing that this is the largest group available, with many names that could be broken down and analyzed as good fits for the Twins. Obviously for the sake of brevity and readability I couldn't include each one, as well as a brief but detailed breakdown of each. Of the players available, I created a table comprised of varying statistics (ERA/ERA-/FIP/FIP(H)/FIP(A)/IP/K%) and weighted them. The pitchers who outperformed their ERA- minus were given the most weight, while those who under performed where given less, etc. The resulting names, while an argument can be made for all of them, just missed the cut - Michael Pineada - Andrew Cashner - John Lackey - Miguel Gonzalez - Doug Fister - Scott Feldman Jhoulys Chacin Chacin, at age 29, had a very good, under the radar 2017 season for the San Diego Padres. He posted a 3.89 ERA over 180.1 IP, and was one of only 7 free agent pitchers to throw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Very durable, Chacin didn't just pitch well at PETCO park, with a respectable FIP Away of 4.89 in a very tough division (with bandbox parks in ARI, high altitude in COL, and the World Series appearing LA Dodgers lineup to contend). Chacin is one of the youngest pitchers on the free agent starting pitcher list, and while he doesn't have the established pedigree or upside of the Tier 2 pitchers listed above, he could make a fine addition to the Twins staff. While he has expressed a desire to sign with the Padres, there is very little noise surrounding Chacin. For the sake of transparency, however, he has been up and down in his career. Prior to signing with the Padres, Chacin was pitching in the previously mentioned thin air of Colorado and the desert in Arizona, less than ideal conditions. Chacin has the ability to be a solid number 4 or 5 guy - or, he could be Ricky Nolasco. Luckily, it will probably cost less than the $12 million annually the Twins gave Nolasco, to find out. He would be a calculated gamble, a low ceiling/high floor type signing. 2. Jason Vargas If Kyle Gibson was Jekyll and Hyde, Vargas exemplified this concept by turning it up to "11". His 2.62 ERA in the first half had many arguing that he should start the All Star Game, with 78 K's under his belt when mid-July rolled around, he was widely considered to be contending for a Cy Young, perhaps behind Cory Kluber and Chris Sale. But, then they played more baseball after the All Star break, and boy was it not good for Jason Vargas or his impending free agency. His ERA inflated to 6.38 during the second half, leaving him with a fairly deception 4.16 ERA on the year. His 4.94 xFIP number probably more indicative of the real Jason Vargas, the KC pitcher cannot be viewed as anything more than a number 4 or 5 starter, but in fairness to Mr. Vargas - no one expected him to be Chris Sale in the first place. His poor second half likely killed the hope of a large free agent contract, and at age 34 I would be surprised to see him get a deal longer than 3 years. For the right contract, Vargas is intriguing, but there are better and younger options on the board with more upside and less risk. The Twins already have a younger Jekyll and Hyde. 3. Tyler Chatwood Chatwood has gotten a lot of chatter (excuse the pun) around Twins Territory, I think, because he fits the mold of a type of pitcher the Twins should gamble on. Chatwood, out of all the Tier 3 pitchers, has the most ability to be in the next tier. He is the youngest free agent pitcher, at 27 years old, after what feels like a lifetime pitching at Coors Field. His 2016 season was more impressive than his 2017 season, with ERA at 3.87 in '16 and a 4.69 in '17, but his xFIP ERA estimator suggests that his 2017 season was better if you factored out the unluckiness of FB% for HR (largely outside of a pitchers control, especially in Coors Field). He outperformed league average ERA- , the park adjusted ERA modifier, to put up a 94, a very impressive feat. (For perspective, Chacin and Vargas also had 94 ERA- marks in much friendlier pitching conditions). Chatwood's K/9 is also trending in the right direction, improving from 6.66 K/9 to 7.31 K/9 in 2017. This is Chatwood's first taste of free agency, and while he will be sought after by clubs looking for a high upside bargain, I don't know that he will get the type of contract offers that would price him out of Minnesotas range. Chatwood could conceivably look to establish more value for a second look at free agency by signing with a team that has a (A) pitcher friendly park, ( a good defense and © up and coming contender with postseason aspirations. All boxes that could be checked with the Minnesota Twins. Final Verdict From a spectator's point of view, its hard to see Ace pitchers hit the market and immediately know that your team is not going to be competitive to try to sign them. That said, if Yu Darvish is pining for a reunion with Mr. Lavine AND Mr. Lavine can pry open the Pohlad piggy bank enough to make that happen, stranger things have happened I suppose. Ultimately, though, the Twins may be in the position to do something they haven't done since Ervin Santana, which is sign a free agent starter as a difference maker. After pouring through numbers, which I do - every time i write these - I would stand by the assessment that Alex Cobb and Tyler Chatwood would be ideal targets in the current market for the Twins. While Cobb will be more expensive, and perhaps more prone to time on the disabled list, he also has an good track record in the American League, with good peripheral numbers without being as expensive as a Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta. On the other hand, Tyler Chatwood is the most intriguing name on the board if you're willing to gamble on change of venue and league. He will be a cheaper option than even Cobb, but less of a "sure thing." Purely speculation, I believe Chatwood is a guy the Twins should roll the dice on, if you can get him for 3 to 4 years at a reasonable annual salary of around $12 - 14 million or so. Whether or not he is offered a more lucrative or enticing deal to play elsewhere is always the unknown question. I would expect the Twins to be in on him, though. All things considered, this off-season should include a free agent starting pitcher signing with the Twins. They are on the cusp of making several deep, competitive runs into the postseason, and the old adage always holds true: Good Pitching beats Good Hitting On Deck: The final segment of this series will conclude with a more targeted look at position players the Twins could look to sign in free agency.

Dear Mr. Ryan Let's start out on some common ground. The last four years have been very disappointing. We've heard these numbers in one form or another for years now, so I won't drag it out, but I want to highlight just a couple of the most disappointing statistics: In four seasons 383 losses.. A pitching staff whose ERA ranked 29th, 28th, 29th and 29th out of 30 from 2011-2014. A starting rotation that ranked last in the league in ERA from 2011-2014. And all of this coming as we moved into the publicly-funded Target Field. It has not been fun.Sadly, these last four years did not come out of nowhere. They have been years in the making. The farm system stopped producing in the late '00s and early '10s. Payroll has been cut, despite revenues that the organization has never before seen (more on this later). Significant trades have failed to yield productive players or prospects, and those who have found success, have done so only after leaving the organization. The clubhouse seemed to get stale as losing year after year took its toll on the players, yet the same voices remained in charge. Many see the firing of Ron Gardenhire as a token gesture meant to save your own job and to try to placate the masses, but I do not. I think your loyalty and your camaraderie with Gardy made it very difficult and very painful for you to do. That loyalty is to be commended, but know that loyalty cuts both ways. Holding on to the status quo for the sake of allegiance and friendship breeds stagnation and can inhibit progress. It is with this sentiment in mind that many, myself included, hope that you are truly considering managers from outside the organization. I have no doubt that there may be very good major league managers already employed within the organization. People who, though currently working with the Twins organization, have experience with many other clubs. But know that many will be skeptical of a promotion from within, no matter how deserving it may be. I do not envy the balancing act that will be required as you move forward. It's this skepticism that is dangerous. You recently discussed how you sense a lot of anger from the fan base. This may have been true, but I think it may be more dire than you believe. There is no doubt there is a die-hard fan base that is not pleased with the direction the organization has taken since moving into Target Field. But these fans are likely not going anywhere and will remain vocal and committed to the Twins no matter how long the team continues to struggle. They are not the concern. The more troubling aspect, however, is that the casual fan base is losing interest in the organization. The combination of a steep decline in the on-field product along with moving into Target Field has left many casual fans cynical of the organization's commitment to producing a competitive on-field product. Is this completely fair? I don't believe so. As was said earlier, these four years are a product of many decisions and many years. I believe it's more unfortunate than anything else that it came about as we moved into Target Field. Whether it's fair or not though, the perception is just as damaging, because worse than anger is disinterest. The disinterest of the casual fan, not the anger of the diehard fan, will be what continues to drive attendance down. So the question is, what's to be done. How can you stem the growing tide of malaise and get people excited to come back out to Target Field. The simple answer is, make a splash. With the All-Star game come and gone, the only thing left to draw interest is the product on the field. Fortunately, you have some things working in your favor. Thanks to Target Field, the organization has the revenues and the payroll flexibility to go out and be aggressive this offseason. On top of this, the free agent market for starting pitching is fairly saturated, with several impact players at the top of the list. These two factors make this an ideal time to step out on that ledge and make the splashy move that has been the antithesis of the Twins modus operandi for so long. Do not let past errors, the fear of failure or the idea that our prospects aren't ready, dissuade you from making a bold move. Nearly 2 years ago, the Royals, with a team that was young and unaccomplished, went out, took a risk and added James Shields. It was a move that was widely criticized. "This team isn't ready to compete," was the rallying cry of the masses. But here they are, competing in the World Series. And here we stand: A young developing core of talent with a smattering of veterans, reinforcements working their way up, resources to use, and players available who fit our needs. I've watched this organization from the Gulf Coast League to the Majors very closely during your tenure, Mr. Ryan, and I believe there's a method to the madness. But at this crucial juncture, with public support waning, when you sit down with Dave St. Peter, I believe that you can come to one, and only one conclusion. Spend Baby, Spend. Signed A Loyal Twins Fan Click here to view the article