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Minnesota’s biggest off-season move was signing Jason Castro to a three-year deal worth $24.5 million. The team had a clear need at catcher and Castro was the 13th best available player according to ESPN.com. But are there other free agent fits after a 103-loss season? Here are five names the Twins could still be considering.Jason Hammel, RHP Hammel posted a 3.68 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over the last three seasons in Chicago and Oakland. With other Cubs’ starters ahead of him, the team could afford to let him go. The Twins need more pitching and he would slide into the rotation nicely. He might be a good candidate to sign to a one- or two-year deal so he could recoup some value. At the start of next season, he will already be 34-years old so he will not have many more opportunities to be a free agent. Doug Fister, RHP Fister is only two-years removed from a terrific season in Washington where he threw for a 2.41 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He has posted ERA totals greater than 4.15 in each of the last two seasons. Fister is younger than Hammel and he has pitched 237 fewer big league innings. He has pitched over 160 innings in each of the last four seasons where he was used exclusively as a starter. Like Hammel, there is an opportunity for him to produce a bounce back season. Scott Feldman, RHP Feldman was one of the players I targeted when completing my 2016 Twins offseason blueprint. I would offer him a two-year deal with some incentives since he has shown some positive signs since joining the bullpen. Minnesota’s bullpen has been overused in recent years so a new arm could add some life to a worn-out group. If he continues to make strides in the right direction, the Twins might be able to deal him for prospects at the trade deadline. Stephen Drew, 2B/3B/SS Drew will be entering his 12th big league season and he has shown the ability to play multiple positions around the infield. He could provide some insurance with young players like Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco scheduled to start. He got on base almost 34% of the time last year. His .864 OPS was his highest total since his rookie season. Drew could take over the role vacated by Eduardo Nunez while providing a veteran voice in the clubhouse. Austin Jackson, OF Minnesota is scheduled to start the year with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, and Robbie Grossman as the team’s outfielders. The young trio of Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario all have things to prove. Jackson would add a veteran bat who can play all three outfield positions. If any of the young core needs more seasoning in Rochester, Jackson could take over the starting duties. Derek Falvey, the Twins Chief Baseball Officer, told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, “The reality is, we’re standing here today with players still available in free agency that I don’t think any of us would have predicted in October. Things change.” Regardless of whether the front office pursues any of the names listed above, it looks like the Twins are incredible longshots to make it to the World Series. Mytopsportsbooks.com, which already has MLB Futures odds posted, lists them at 200-1 right now. While the odds seem to be against a World Series run, it seems likely for the Twins to head to Fort Myers with a player or players who are not currently on the roster. Who would be a good fit with the club’s current direction? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Click here to view the article
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Jason Hammel, RHP Hammel posted a 3.68 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over the last three seasons in Chicago and Oakland. With other Cubs’ starters ahead of him, the team could afford to let him go. The Twins need more pitching and he would slide into the rotation nicely. He might be a good candidate to sign to a one- or two-year deal so he could recoup some value. At the start of next season, he will already be 34-years old so he will not have many more opportunities to be a free agent. Doug Fister, RHP Fister is only two-years removed from a terrific season in Washington where he threw for a 2.41 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He has posted ERA totals greater than 4.15 in each of the last two seasons. Fister is younger than Hammel and he has pitched 237 fewer big league innings. He has pitched over 160 innings in each of the last four seasons where he was used exclusively as a starter. Like Hammel, there is an opportunity for him to produce a bounce back season. Scott Feldman, RHP Feldman was one of the players I targeted when completing my 2016 Twins offseason blueprint. I would offer him a two-year deal with some incentives since he has shown some positive signs since joining the bullpen. Minnesota’s bullpen has been overused in recent years so a new arm could add some life to a worn-out group. If he continues to make strides in the right direction, the Twins might be able to deal him for prospects at the trade deadline. Stephen Drew, 2B/3B/SS Drew will be entering his 12th big league season and he has shown the ability to play multiple positions around the infield. He could provide some insurance with young players like Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco scheduled to start. He got on base almost 34% of the time last year. His .864 OPS was his highest total since his rookie season. Drew could take over the role vacated by Eduardo Nunez while providing a veteran voice in the clubhouse. Austin Jackson, OF Minnesota is scheduled to start the year with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, and Robbie Grossman as the team’s outfielders. The young trio of Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario all have things to prove. Jackson would add a veteran bat who can play all three outfield positions. If any of the young core needs more seasoning in Rochester, Jackson could take over the starting duties. Derek Falvey, the Twins Chief Baseball Officer, told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, “The reality is, we’re standing here today with players still available in free agency that I don’t think any of us would have predicted in October. Things change.” Regardless of whether the front office pursues any of the names listed above, it looks like the Twins are incredible longshots to make it to the World Series. Mytopsportsbooks.com, which already has MLB Futures odds posted, lists them at 200-1 right now. While the odds seem to be against a World Series run, it seems likely for the Twins to head to Fort Myers with a player or players who are not currently on the roster. Who would be a good fit with the club’s current direction? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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There weren't a lot of pitchers with high strikeout numbers. That surprised me because when one thinks of tall pitchers, one focuses on the best tall pitcher: Randy Johnson, who ranks second all-time in strikeouts. The pitchers were: Mike Smithson (6’ 8”), who debuted in 1982 as a 27-year-old, Randy Johnson (6’ 10”), who debuted in 1988 as a 24-year-old, Eric Hillman (6’ 10”), who debuted in 1992 as a 26-year-old, Mark Hendrickson (6’ 9”), who debuted in 2002 as a 28-year-old, Chris Young (6' 10"), who debuted in 2004 as a 25-year-old, Chris Volstad (6' 8"), who debuted in 2008 as a 21-year-old, Jeff Niemann (6' 9"), who debuted in 2008 as a 25-year-old and Doug Fister (6' 8"), who debuted in 2014 as a 25-year-old. Looking at their minor league records, Smithson, Hendrickson, Volstad and Hillman all had very mediocre strikeout rates, with the highest at 6.2. Fister’s was only 6.70, though he might end up being the second most valuable starting pitcher on this list. He was fairly effective when he debuted at 25 years old, but it wasn’t until he was traded to Detroit as a 27-year-old that he ratcheted up his control and started posting sub-4.00 ERAs. Meyer, on the other hand, has a 10.4 K/9 in his minor league career. That’s higher than even Randy Johnson had in the minors. The only other pitchers with a rate above mediocre are Chris Young (7.4 K/9) and Jeff Niemann (8.9 K/9). Young debuted as a 25-year-old, was decent as a 26-year-old, and looked like a future star as a 27-year-old. But his career was derailed shortly thereafter by multiple injuries and three surgeries, including facial reconstruction from a hit to the face and two independent shoulder surgeries. He is a great “what if?” (Thanks to Thrylos for helping research this.) But Meyer, who has been shut down each season due to a sore shoulder, reminds me most of Niemann. Niemann was drafted fourth overall and, as the Rays then were apt to do, signed to a major league contract. That’s significant because that meant he was on the 40-man roster and his three option years were needed as he worked his way through the minors. Niemann posted some outstanding numbers in the minors, but also suffered from shoulder and groin injuries, including an offseason shoulder surgery. He made a brief appearance in the majors in 2008 but was promoted to the club for good in 2009 as a 26-year-old, because he was out of options. He had a good rookie year and started well the next year, but faded badly as the season went on due to shoulder and back problems. The next two years were decent, but both were marred by injuries; he made just 31 starts over the two seasons. In his fifth year, he was battling for a job in spring training as a 30-year-old in the Rays rotation when they discovered that he had to undergo shoulder surgery. He hasn’t pitched in the minors or majors since. So to recap, Niemann was "rushed" to The Bigs as a 26-year-old. His career lasted a little over four years. He started less than 100 games. His overall record was 40-26 with a 4.08 ERA. Meyer and the Twins have a luxury that Niemann and the Rays did not; Meyer's demotion this year will only use the first of his three options. He won't need to be promoted for good until he is 28 years old. And as for caring for his shoulder, it's easier to limit and care for a pitcher who is out of he glare of the bright lights of The Show. It could also be, like Johnson, he's going to need some additional time to work through his control issues. Meyer posted a 4.4 BB/9 rate in Rochester last year, which is about 50% worse than average in the majors. At the beginning of this year, that rate is much worse, with a walk rate over 8 per nine innings. And, of course, it's likely to get worse in the majors. But he has three more years to work through those issues in Rochester if he needs them, without starting his service time clock. It may be that delaying his debut in the majors hurts his prospect ranking, but it's not clear that it hurts his long-term development. A look at other tall pitchers reveal that they often need extra time to harness their control and need to be cautious about with their workload to avoid injuries. Those areas should be the focus, not their age. if you would like to know more details about how this list of pitchers was assembled, see Part 1 of this story. Thanks to Thrylos, Hosken Bombo Disco, Jokin, 70charger & Kevin for their assistance in researching this study.
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- alex meyer
- randy johnson
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Last week, amid concerns that 25-year-old Twins pitching prospect Alex Meyer is too old to still be in the minors, I researched all major league starting pitchers since 1980 who were within an inch of Meyer's towering 6' 9" frame. Turns out their average debut age was 25 years old. I also found something I didn't expect.There weren't a lot of pitchers with high strikeout numbers. That surprised me because when one thinks of tall pitchers, one focuses on the best tall pitcher: Randy Johnson, who ranks second all-time in strikeouts. The pitchers were: Mike Smithson (6’ 8”), who debuted in 1982 as a 27-year-old, Randy Johnson (6’ 10”), who debuted in 1988 as a 24-year-old, Eric Hillman (6’ 10”), who debuted in 1992 as a 26-year-old, Mark Hendrickson (6’ 9”), who debuted in 2002 as a 28-year-old, Chris Young (6' 10"), who debuted in 2004 as a 25-year-old, Chris Volstad (6' 8"), who debuted in 2008 as a 21-year-old, Jeff Niemann (6' 9"), who debuted in 2008 as a 25-year-old and Doug Fister (6' 8"), who debuted in 2014 as a 25-year-old. Looking at their minor league records, Smithson, Hendrickson, Volstad and Hillman all had very mediocre strikeout rates, with the highest at 6.2. Fister’s was only 6.70, though he might end up being the second most valuable starting pitcher on this list. He was fairly effective when he debuted at 25 years old, but it wasn’t until he was traded to Detroit as a 27-year-old that he ratcheted up his control and started posting sub-4.00 ERAs. Meyer, on the other hand, has a 10.4 K/9 in his minor league career. That’s higher than even Randy Johnson had in the minors. The only other pitchers with a rate above mediocre are Chris Young (7.4 K/9) and Jeff Niemann (8.9 K/9). Young debuted as a 25-year-old, was decent as a 26-year-old, and looked like a future star as a 27-year-old. But his career was derailed shortly thereafter by multiple injuries and three surgeries, including facial reconstruction from a hit to the face and two independent shoulder surgeries. He is a great “what if?” (Thanks to Thrylos for helping research this.) But Meyer, who has been shut down each season due to a sore shoulder, reminds me most of Niemann. Niemann was drafted fourth overall and, as the Rays then were apt to do, signed to a major league contract. That’s significant because that meant he was on the 40-man roster and his three option years were needed as he worked his way through the minors. Niemann posted some outstanding numbers in the minors, but also suffered from shoulder and groin injuries, including an offseason shoulder surgery. He made a brief appearance in the majors in 2008 but was promoted to the club for good in 2009 as a 26-year-old, because he was out of options. He had a good rookie year and started well the next year, but faded badly as the season went on due to shoulder and back problems. The next two years were decent, but both were marred by injuries; he made just 31 starts over the two seasons. In his fifth year, he was battling for a job in spring training as a 30-year-old in the Rays rotation when they discovered that he had to undergo shoulder surgery. He hasn’t pitched in the minors or majors since. So to recap, Niemann was "rushed" to The Bigs as a 26-year-old. His career lasted a little over four years. He started less than 100 games. His overall record was 40-26 with a 4.08 ERA. Meyer and the Twins have a luxury that Niemann and the Rays did not; Meyer's demotion this year will only use the first of his three options. He won't need to be promoted for good until he is 28 years old. And as for caring for his shoulder, it's easier to limit and care for a pitcher who is out of he glare of the bright lights of The Show. It could also be, like Johnson, he's going to need some additional time to work through his control issues. Meyer posted a 4.4 BB/9 rate in Rochester last year, which is about 50% worse than average in the majors. At the beginning of this year, that rate is much worse, with a walk rate over 8 per nine innings. And, of course, it's likely to get worse in the majors. But he has three more years to work through those issues in Rochester if he needs them, without starting his service time clock. It may be that delaying his debut in the majors hurts his prospect ranking, but it's not clear that it hurts his long-term development. A look at other tall pitchers reveal that they often need extra time to harness their control and need to be cautious about with their workload to avoid injuries. Those areas should be the focus, not their age. if you would like to know more details about how this list of pitchers was assembled, see Part 1 of this story. Thanks to Thrylos, Hosken Bombo Disco, Jokin, 70charger & Kevin for their assistance in researching this study. Click here to view the article
- 11 replies
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- alex meyer
- randy johnson
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(and 3 more)
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