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In about 24 hours, the Los Angeles Dodgers disassembled the Minnesota Twins and left them in little pieces, out in the rain. On top of that, two of the moving parts don't work anymore. Alcala and Kirilloff need repairs, and they're both key cogs in the Twins machine. They say the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, and right now those parts do not add up. I monitored the first game on my cell phone. My ear was too clogged (allergies) to listen to the game. I'd watch the game, but I lack the time and money it takes to actually find a Twins game on television. I live in Iowa, and even though the Twins Caravan used to swing by here, this state does not feel like Twins territory. Iowa is filled with Cubs fans. I've got nothing against the Cubs. I think they created lifelong fans when their games were broadcast on WGN, just like the song says. Seems like there might be something to this idea that actually watching games creates fans who then spend money on the team and travel to see games. It's hard to piece together a blog post about 24 hours of disappointment and despair. I did get former Twin Brusdar Graterol's name stuck in my head. Ever have that happen to you, where you keep hearing a unique sounding name in your head like it was a catchy song? Brusdar Graterol. It has a certain rhythm to it. I've haven't been this hooked on a name since Italian horror director Lamberto Bava got his name stuck in my head. Also, Boof Bonser. As I write this, I still feel hopeful for the Twins. The season has barely begun, and there's a lot about the team to be excited about. Maybe the bats will come back on the road trip. Maybe the bullpen will settle in a little bit. I want to see more Nick Gordon, because I've decided to be unapologetically excited about him regardless of stats and sensibility. I'll be there for all of it, monitoring the GameDay app and wondering what baseball would look like if I could actually watch it.

The three-team mega blockbuster involving the Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers is finally complete. At this point, most Twins fans are aware of what happened - a deal was in place on February 4th, sending Graterol to Boston as part of the return for offloading Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers. However, that soon changed after Boston came to the conclusion that Graterol was not destined to be a starting pitcher. This was a conclusion that the Twins publicly announced well in advance of the trade. Chaos, medical speculation, and finger pointing ensued, and the entire trade between the three teams was put on ice. This was perhaps the most dramatic trade saga of my Minnesota Twins fandom, maybe ranking behind the Johan Santana rumors that dominated the entire 2008 offseason. I will spare you all the back-and-forth rumors between Boston getting cold feet and the revised agreement between the three teams, as this is a massive movement of players. Instead, the changes in the Twins aspect is highlighted below: 2/4 Twins Agreement V1 Twins trade Brusdar Graterol to Boston. Twins acquire Kenta Maeda from Los Angeles. 2/9 Twins Agreement V2 Twins trade Brusdar Graterol, 2020 Comp B Draft Pick, and Luke Raley to Los Angeles Twins acquire Kenta Maeda, $10M in cash assets, and Jair Camargo © from Los Angeles. The second version is much more complex, but paints a better picture of the Twins 2020 mindset. While the delay was agonizing, irritating, and heart-burn inducing, I think the Twins used time to their advantage and improved their haul from the first version. Let’s review what changed from the first trade to the second, and how the Twins sacrificed future unknowns for increased flexibility to improve the 2020 club at a later date. The 67th Pick In the 2020 MLB Draft Here’s a look at the Twins’ last 25 second round picks - ranging from pick number 37 to 92. There’s a lot of variability here, with 71% of the bWAR coming from the combination of Scott Baker and Jesse Crain. The Twins have failed to receive value from the second round in the last decade, but the second round picks from the Falvine regime are legitimate prospects within the system. The jury is out on anyone drafted from 2016 onward. Make no mistake - the Twins are taking an unprecedented risk for this organization by trading a draft pick this high, especially after losing the #99 pick for signing Josh Donaldson. However, there’s a very realistic chance this pick doesn’t reach the MLB level. If the player were to reach the majors, it would likely be in year outside of the Twins current competitive window. There’s plenty of second round draft talent currently in the system to supplement the current core. Another way to look at the value of this pick is by equating it to a monetary value. Fangraphs placed the value of the 67th pick in 2019 at $4.1M. That factors in a signing bonus subtracted from projected future value, based on historic WAR from players picked in that slot. That’s an interesting way to look at this part of the trade, considering the dollar amount that Los Angeles is providing. $10M in Cash Assets Cash. Don’t worry, this isn’t meant to line the pockets of the Pohlads. This is spending money for the 2020 Trade Deadline in late July/early August. This allows them to acquire an asset at the deadline using more financial capital, and less prospect capital. Judging from their pre-Donaldson free agent signings, it’s clear that Falvey and Levine crave financial flexibility. Here are several ways to look at this incoming cash, beyond use in a trade scenario: Covering the majority of Kenta Maeda’s base salary ($12.5M through 2023) Covering Maeda’s full 2020 contract, if he hits the majority of his incentives. Pays for the #67 Comp B draft pick, with roughly $5.9M in excess value. This is a huge benefit over the previous agreement, as it protects the Twins if Maeda flames out, or allows more budget room to acquire a pricier trade target in July. The $10M from Los Angeles will go to valid use in many scenarios. Luke Raley for Jair Camargo Luke Raley boomerangs back to the organization that dealt him to Minnesota for Brian Dozier in 2018. In exchange, the Twins are receiving a low-level catching prospect in Jair Camargo. Camargo is a young catcher at 20 years old, and played at Class A last year in the Great Lakes league. His offensive line was middling with a .642 OPS, but he is rumored to have a strong exit velocity from his bat (90 MPH+) with a high hard hit percentage. The Twins seem to like that offensive profile, and the fact it's coming from a catcher is extra appealing. It never hurts to add catching depth at any level. The Twins are giving up Raley, who was a fine prospect, but he suffered through an injury for the majority of 2019. He projects as a corner outfield platoon/bench piece, and that role is valuable to MLB clubs. However, the Twins outfield depth is immense, with a young starting core on the MLB team, and multiple top 100 ranked outfield prospects behind him in Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff. Even with blockages in front of him, and top prospects behind him - Raley was competing alongside multiple outfielders at a similar level of development. Jake Cave, LaMonte Wade Jr, and Brent Rooker are all fellow outfielders with similar ages and projections to Raley. All of these similar corner outfielders were occupying 40-man roster spots. The major benefit in trading away Raley to Los Angeles, is that it immediately opens up a 40-man roster spot for the 2020 team. Camargo is years away from being added, and is essentially a lottery ticket at a premium position. For now, the open 40-man roster vacancy creates a large amount of flexibility. The open spot can be used for Jhoulys Chacín, an injury replacement, or a future acquisition. Brusdar Graterol Is Gone - But To A Different Opponent Fair trades are supposed to hurt, right? This aspect did not change, as pitchers who throw 100 MPH+ do not grow on trees. It still hurts to lose Graterol, but the same analysis that applied a few days ago remains the same. The Twins are betting that Graterol will remain in the bullpen, and are filling an area of need in the starting rotation, from an area of strength on the 2020 team. Unlike Boston, Los Angeles is fine with Graterol’s likely reliever projection. The Twins are hoping Graterol doesn’t turn into Aroldis Chapman. So why is the version of the trade more beneficial to the Twins, in relation to Brusdar? Simple, the Twins won’t have to face him nearly as much over the next few years if he’s pitching in the National League, compared to two guaranteed series per year against Boston. Of course, that could change with a few late October match-ups against Los Angeles, but we’d all be very pleased if that’s the case. It’ll be much easier to root for him in Dodger Blue for the next few years. The End Result The one constant between the two versions of this trade is that Kenta Maeda is still coming to the Twins, as the #3 starter to open the season. The Twins had to get a bit more creative after Boston shied away from Graterol, but Los Angeles was a flexible trade partner. While the first version of this trade was already risky with the Twins shipping away Graterol’s sky-high potential, the second version adds even more risk to the equation. The loss of the Comp B draft pick and Luke Raley could come back to sting in their own rights. However, I’m glad the Twins doubled down, as the increased roster and financial flexibility for 2020 are the only known factors in this entire deal.

I just read this really fun article in True West Magazine https://truewestmagazine.com/article/six-guns-sluggers/?mc_cid=1c6674cead&mc_eid=b66323b9da "Two sesquicentennial anniversaries in 2019 will commemorate landmark events in the history of the American West. When gold and silver spikes were gently tapped into place in a ceremonial laurelwood rail tie at Promontory Summit in Utah Territory to symbolize the completion of the Transcontinental Railroad on May 10, 1869, it opened the West as never before. Earlier in the year, the Red Stockings of Cincinnati became the first all-salaried, professional team in the fledgling sport of baseball. Undefeated as the year progressed, the Red Stockings rode these rails in mid-September to introduce professional ball beyond the Mississippi. The West offered opportunity and adventure, attracting people from around the world who flocked to the California gold rush of ’49 and the Comstock silver lode in ’59. Now, in 1869, these professionals came west to demonstrate their wealth of baseball riches to overmatched but eager ball clubs with a hankering to be part of the Red Stockings’ historic season." This was a fun historic article - you might remember I had an earlier Blog that had Wild Bill Hickok in a baseball game and Tom Custer was a good pitcher. https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11497-wild-bill-umpires-the-game/ It took a long time before baseball moved west in the professional sense. For a long time the West Coast had a minor league team with players like Joe DiMaggio and his brothers making it almost as good as MLB. St Louis was the team of the West for a century. "In 1859, the first organized team on the Pacific Coast, the San Francisco Eagles, was established. The next February, in San Francisco they played to a 33-33 tie with the Red Rovers of Sacramento. In September, the Eagles traveled to Sacramento in a rematch for the state title, emerging victorious 31-17. In a few years, the Eagles organization had grown such that with the overflow they formed a new club, the Pacifics. Both became premier teams among more than a dozen that organized in the Bay Area. The sport was invigorating to watch and spectators might even shoot their six-guns when excited. With gamblers betting on their favorite team, it’s said it was not uncommon to have enthusiastic supporters fire into the air to shake the concentration of batters taking swings or to rattle fielders preparing to catch the ball." https://www.sfomuseum.org/exhibitions/local-nine-san-francisco-seals-baseball-1903-1957 The San Francisco Seals had a very long and successful life in the bay area. After the 1957 season - another pennant for the Seals, they moved to Phoenix and the Dodgers and the Giants began the westward expansion of baseball in MLB. Now you might think this has nothing to do with the Twins, but if you had been around then you would have seen our local cities trying to get these teams to come to us. But - "Millers were top-level affiliates of the Boston Red Sox (1936–38; 1958–60) and New York Giants (1946–57). The Red Sox actually swapped ownership of their top farm club, the San Francisco Seals of the Pacific Coast League, for the Millers in 1957, enabling the Giants to move to San Francisco." The Original St Paul Saints - "The Saints finished first in the American Association nine times, and won the Little World Series in 1924. During this period, the Saints were a farm club of the Chicago White Sox (1936–1942), the Brooklyn Dodgers (1944–1957), and the Los Angeles Dodgers (1958–1960). The Saints played streetcar home and away double headers with their local rivals, the Minneapolis Millers. When the Minnesota Twins came to town in 1961, the Saints became the Omaha Dodgers while the Millers ceased operations." Note both Dodgers and Giants had a connection to the Twin Cities. The Dodgers were going to LA, but the Giants were not sure about SF and played games with the Twin City Press. https://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/17/sports/baseball/the-giants-almost-headed-not-quite-so-far-west.html "MINNEAPOLIS, June 16 - If not for Walter O'Malley, Willie Mays might be remembered for making a leaping catch 100 yards from a grazing cow. If not for a few twists of fate, Mays could have an "M" on the cap in his Hall of Fame plaque, and the scrum for Barry Bonds's 73rd home run ball might have occurred in the upper deck of the Metrodome." "According to newspaper and historical accounts, Stoneham discussed moving here with Minneapolis officials as early as 1955, when concern over declining attendance and the decrepit condition of the Polo Grounds prompted him to consider his options. The Giants owned the Class AAA Minneapolis Millers, giving them territorial rights, and Metropolitan Stadium was under construction on 164 acres of farmland in suburban Bloomington in hopes of luring a big-league team." The west won out, but the conversations were strong enough to interest the Griffith family in moving the Original Senators to that Bloomington field and here we are the Twins! And the story of the DC franchise which has had at least three professional teams includes 108 years without winning a series.

The Dodgers may win. The Red Sox could see their magic disappear - this is baseball after all, but there are some story lines that I have really liked and wanted to point out. One of which is that talent - not analytics wins games. Sorry Aaron Gleeman, but when we retire APBA and other games and get to the teams and games that count there is much more than probability. So what are my take-aways so far? Relief pitchers can't match great starters. Milwaukee was a fun experiment in defying the tradition of starters and relievers, but in fact their relievers wore out. This over emphasis on Bullpen arms has a draw back because no one can pitch 162 games - sorry Mike Marshall I know you tried. And by the end of the year the accumulated games wear the pitchers down. Did anyone see the same Jeffress in the play-offs that succeeded in the regular season? The key games for the Brewers were when Chacin and Miley started and took care of some innings to take pressure off the pen. The Red Sox Bullpen has been lights out - but Price and Sales took some innings off the board first. The Dodgers got too smart with all its match ups and not only called on Madsen one too many times but shut down Baez when he had the momentum to stop the Sox. Strikeouts do matter. Look at the Red Sox. Down two strikes they do not give in, they do not go for the big whiff, they put the ball in play and then something happens. Of course it does not work every time, but a strike out is an out - every time. Red Sox players are not without power, but they are also not without speed and excitement. This is a team exuding what the great Rickey Henderson once had. They upset the other team, the pitchers, the catchers, the managers. The Dodgers have shown in the first two games that you should throw out the book sometimes. They put their good hitters on the bench for match ups that have lesser results. Their formula looks old, although home cooking could fix that. I really do think that the best teams from each league are playing each other and that is great. While I rooted for the A's and the Brewers, their styles were fun and unconventional, I am still pleased to see the teams with the best stars and the best organizations playing for the championship. My last note for the Twins - forget the Kershaw sweepstakes. He is aging and will still want a long term contract that in the end will look like the Pujols deal.

https://www.loc.gov/item/prn-18-036/?loclr=eanotw The library of Congress has given us a historical gift - the scouting reports of Branch Rickey. He was a vital part of baseball history, even beyond signing Jackie Robinson and this is where you can check it out. Here are some notes from the introduction and entries that struck me: Rickey’s 1963 scouting report on Hank Aaron, who broke Babe Ruth’s long-standing home run record of 714 in 1974. Rickey wrote "Surely one of the greatest hitters in baseball today. Can hit late with power, - good wrists. But in spite of his hitting record and admitted power ability, one cannot help think that Aaron is frequently a guess hitter." A 1955 scouting report on Roberto Clemente, who amassed 3,000 hits in his Hall of Fame career for the Pittsburgh Pirates A report dated March 30-31, 1964, on future National Basketball Association great Dave DeBusschere, where Rickey predicted that DeBusschere “should become a corking good major league pitcher.” For Hall of Famer Bob Gibson, Rickey noted on March 14, 1964, “when trying out young players… scouts and coaches would keep in mind Bob Gibson as a model for comparison and rate the prospect’s stuff accordingly.” About Richie Allen - “Rollie Hemsley at Indianapolis, Bill Adair at Toronto, Larry Shepard at Columbus, Kerby Farrell at Buffalo and Harry Walker at Atlanta all believe that outfielder Allen is the best major league prospect in the International League. A colored boy, very young, and belongs to Philadelphia. He has extraordinary power to all fields. Arm not great, but adequate. Highly desirable in any deal with Philadelphia. I am sorry not to have been able to see this boy in action, but rating give to the player by baseball men generally put him immediately as a regular in any major league outfield. I would risk a heavy deal to have the Cardinals Get this player.” Minnesotan Twins 2B Bernie Allen – “Tall boy from Purdue. Left hand hitter, has power and I believe he can outrun Rollins. I doubt if he is a .300 hitter. Hit .269 in 1962, Not hitting a lick this year…” Bob Allison – “A 275 hitter with exceptional power. Looks the part of a great athlete. Right hander all the way. He has everything it takes to be a long time major league regular.” Earl Battey – “A big colored catcher. Looks overweight, but has a remarkable action. Quick and has power at the plate, plenty of it. Looks like he likes to play. I can imagine him in a World Series.” Minnesota born, Yankee – John Blanchard – “If Blanchard’s habits were good and his team relationship satisfactory, St Louis could use him. I would not take him unless I were permitted to have a conversation with the player with results satisfactory to myself.” Harmon Killebrew – “A big right hand hitter with as much distance power as any man in the game. Strikes out a great deal. I would not be interested in obtaining his contract in any kind of possible trade. I don’t want him at the price.” It will take a lot of time to sort out everything, but this is a very personal glimpse into the game in the early 60's.

Happy New Years! It may be the first you've heard of it, but it sounds like the Twins and Dodgers have been having trade discussions that revolve around All-Star 2B Brian Dozier. Oh, you have heard it? Of course you have. It's been an ongoing national talker and there's been no shortage of articles to read on the topic right here on this site.While no one knows how close we are to getting (or not getting) to a resolution in these trade talks, you can put me squarely in the camp that believes the Twins shouldn't move Dozier unless they're blown away. Sorry guys, trading Dozier for Jose De Leon in a 1-for-1 swap isn't blowing the Twins away. And trading Dozier for De Leon and Brock Stewart also isn't enough, in my opinion, to pull the trigger. So what's going to give? Did you hear? The 9th edition of the Twins Prospect Handbook is coming out on Wednesday. If you plug the code FWD15 in at checkout, you'll get 15% off. Want to buy a few? Get 20% off five or more books with the code SPACE20. Get Another Prospect or Two The Dodgers reportedly are holding steadfast in that they won't budge from not including other highly-regarded prospects like Yadier Alvarez or Cody Bellinger. But they've shown a "willingness" to include De Leon. A package that includes De Leon and Stewart is a good start. So who else could they look to include? Willie Calhoun - Calhoun is fashioned as a power-hitting left-handed-hitting second baseman. That might cause you to raise a red flag because that's ultimately Jorge Polanco's home. No problem, though, because Calhoun isn't going to stick at second base. His future is likely in left field, where he'd be limited by his lack of speed and arm, only because a 5' 6" first baseman isn't realistic. I wouldn't love Calhoun to be included, but his bat is an asset and assets are what the Twins need to close the deal. Jordan Sheffield - Getting another arm would be wise and Sheffield has a pretty powerful one (which includes a remade UCL). The Twins liked Sheffield - but didn't love him - coming out of Vanderbilt and there are questions about whether he profiles as a starter or not. But guys that can hit 98 don't just fall off trees and getting him as a third piece wouldn't be a terrible thing. Trevor Oaks - Oaks profiles as a groundball pitcher who could be a back end starter/middle relief option. There's nothing sexy about him but adding a (good) Nick Blackburn-type would be an acceptable third piece. Lottery Tickets - The Dodgers have been very active in international free agency the past few years and maybe the Twins could pry away either Ronny Brito, SS or Starling Heredia, OF. Just 17 and neither having made their US debut yet, both prospects have high ceilings but a long way to go. Brito is a defensive wizard who has questions about his bat. Heredia is a big-bodied power hitter who will end up in a corner. It might go without saying, though, that if the Dodgers were willing to include any of these guys and the Twins were willing to seal the deal with the inclusion of any of these guy that the deal would already be done. So now let's get more creative. International Spending Money - The new CBA revamps how and what teams can spend. Hard caps. Pools are much more even. For example, the Twins, despite having the #1 overall pick in the draft, get no advantage in the international free agent (IFA) market for being the worst team. Because they receive revenue sharing, they will receive a competitive balance pick and extra IFA money. Every team will have a pool of at least a minimum of $4.75 million. The Twins, who get an extra pick after the first round, will have a pool of $5.25 million. There are eight teams who have pools of $5.75 million. The Dodgers fit in the group that has $4.75 million to spend. So where am I going with this? The Dodgers are still stuck with the penalties of going over their spending limit in 2015. They can't sign any player for more than $300,000. Maybe they could send some money to the Twins? The Twins could add up to $3,937,500 to their pool. The Dodgers love to spend money, so maybe they'll just spend it all on $300,000 guys... or maybe they could cough up $1.75 million to the Twins, who would then have $7 million and the ability to throw their weight around in that market as the team with the most money. Rules prohibit pool money from being traded until the market opens on July 2, so it would have to called "future considerations." Take On Bad Money - The Dodgers will always flirt with the luxury tax threshold. With only 13 players under contract for 2017, they are already at $200 million in commitments. They have eight arbitration-eligible players who are projected to get around $16 million. If the four players who fill out the roster all make the minimum, they're looking at a payroll that is nearly $220 million. The way the CBA reads, the Dodgers would face a 50% penalty on the overage (the limit is $195 million for the upcoming season) which would cost them $12.5 million. In addition to that, they'd be forced to pay an additional 12% on any dollar over $215 million, which is another $600,000. And that's assuming the Dodgers payroll is only $220 million. It will likely be greater. At $240 million? More penalties. It could almost get to the point where the Dodgers are forced to pay $2 for every $1 they spend over $195 million. So a team, like the Twins, could take on $10 million dollars and save the Dodgers $20 million. You know what could encourage a team to take on money? More prospects. How could the Twins take on money, you ask? Brandon McCarthy - McCarthy has two years at $10 million each left on his contract plus a team option. McCarthy has only made 13 starts in the last two seasons due to having Tommy John surgery. He's only 33 and not too far removed from being a pretty good pitcher. Erisbel Arruebarrena - The Cuban shortstop is a defensive wizard but has been suspended for much of the last two seasons. He's owed $9 million over the next two years. I'm not interested in adding the player - mostly cause I don't know what his issues are - but I'd take on his money to add another prospect (like Sheffield). The Dodgers, in turn, would save up to nearly $18 million of dead-weight. Yaisel Sierra - Another Cuban, the right-handed pitcher has been a huge disappointment after signing a six-year, $30 million contract in February. He only lasted on the 40-man until the beginning of July and struggled at both high-A and AA. He's still on the hook for five years and $23 million. But he could still prove to be a serviceable arm. While that money is an albatross for the Dodgers - and costing them nearly $50 million - it could be worth taking on for the Twins... if the Dodgers are willing to throw more in. Of course, this is all based on the assumption that the Dodgers care about wasting money (and they might not). Brian Dozier (who's owed $6 million and $9 million for the next two years) for Jose De Leon, Brock Stewart, the contracts of McCarthy or Sierra and Arruebarrena (who are owed $6.5 million and $8.5 million the next two years), Calhoun and/or Sheffield and some IFA money in July would be a creative way to get a deal done. Is it enough? Is it fair? Click here to view the article