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To try to give this an as “realistic” feel as possible, I found every player’s composite ranking (the average of Perfect Game, Baseball America and MLB) and couldn’t take them unless they fell after or within 10% of the pick (with the exception of the first pick). For example, to be “eligible” for me to pick at 73, the composite ranking had to be lower than 65.7. To be drafted at 80, he had to be ranked 72 or lower. For the last three picks, I couldn’t choose a player who was ranked in the Top 200 on each of the three lists. Round 1 (Pick 6 - $3,889,500): RHP Dillon Tate, UC Santa Barbara. Consider it wishful thinking. As much I like Alex Bregman (a ton), my hope is that Tate is available at six and that’s the route the Twins go. Should he not be available, Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Kolby Allard are other names that are under consideration. Comp Round B (Pick 73 - $839,800): RHP Kyle Cody, Kentucky. At the beginning of the season, Cody looked like a first-rounder. Armed with a big body (6-7, 245) and a bigger fastball (high-90s), Cody has been very inconsistent and has regressed to the point that Kentucky was using him as a mid-week reliever. Cody had success in the Cape Cod League last summer and could continue to the Kentucky-to-Minnesota pipeline. Oh, and Cody also grew up exactly 100 miles to the east of Target Field in Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin. If a prep like RHP Dakota Chalmers falls to this point, he could be another guy the Twins zero in on. (Composite average: 69) Round 3 (Pick 80 - $754,000): 3B Trey Cabbage, Tennessee prep. Cabbage was mentioned by Darren Wolfson a couple weeks ago as someone the Twins could target with their second pick. He’ll come off the board here with their third pick. Cabbage is a Top 100 draft prospect with a pretty left-handed swing, projectable power and the potential to play third base. (Composite average: 93) Round 4 (Pick 110 - $517,800): LHP Jeff Degano, Indiana State. The Canadian-born Degano missed nearly two seasons with Tommy John surgery before becoming a dominant pitcher for the Sycamores. Degano throws a mid-90s fastball and backs it up with a high-70s slurve. If he can improve on a changeup - and with Neil Allen, I’d believe everyone can - the 6’4" southpaw has the stuff to be a professional starter. (Composite average: 105) Round 5 (Pick 140 - $387,600): LHP Logan Allen, IMG Academy. IMG Academy has much more well-known names on the current roster, but Allen is no slouch. A South Carolina commit, Allen transferred to IMG Academy after two years of high school and is a pretty advanced 18-year-old. If Allard is the Twins pick in the first round, don’t expect them to pop a second prep lefty so quickly. Mac Marshall could be another prep lefty on the team’s radar. (Composite average: 148) Round 6 (Pick 170 - $290,300): C Joey Bart, Georgia prep. The Twins usually draft at least one catcher in the Top 10 rounds. Bart is known more for his bat and could eventually move out from behind the plate. A more likely catcher selection may be Washington’s Austin Rei, who was drafted, but unsigned, by the Twins out of high school in the 37th round of the 2012 draft. Rei figures to go off the board much earlier. (Composite average: 172) Round 7 (Pick 200 - $217,500): RHP Jacob Cronenworth, Michigan. Cronenworth is playing wherever Michigan needs him. He’s been a starter, a closer and played around the infield. He’s never solely focused on being a pitcher, and could make huge improvements with that focus. Cronenworth has a background in hockey, so he’d fit right in. (Composite average: 186) Round 8 (Pick 230 - $175,400): RHP Josh Graham, Oregon. Graham doesn’t show up in any Top 200s (yet). He’s a converted catcher who throws gas. He’s from Oregon. The Twins had success with Jake Reed from Oregon. His last name is Graham. The Twins had success with J.R. And for icing of the cake: The Twins drafted Graham out of high school in 2012. He still considers himself a catcher, however. He even removed his cap while fielding a pop up earlier this season. He was pitching. Graham could certainly go higher and is the one on this list I’d peg the Twins most likely to take. Round 9 (Pick 260 -$163,800): RHP Kyle Davis, USC. Davis profiles best as a reliever, but has the pitches to give starting a chance. He pitched in both roles as a Trojan. Round 10 (Pick 290 - $153,100): OF Anderson Miller, Western Kentucky. Miller is an athletic player who has shown some pop (14 homers) in his bat. The makeup is good as well. So there you have it: a projection of what the Twins could do with their top 10 picks. How would you feel if it played out like this? Would you prefer seven college relievers instead?

Plotting out the ways the Twins could go at #6 would be a lot of speculation, though it isn’t because it’s impossible to tell who the Twins like. It’s impossible to have any idea who may or may not go in the five spots that precede the Twins making their selection. Because of that “murkiness”, it was hard to settle on guys to profile in this series. Because of the lack of consensus in the Top 10, it made it nearly impossible to settle on guys to profile in this series. So that forced us to get creative (in a way that didn’t involve a month of profiles for you to read). The first installment in our profile series will feature three guys: Three guys we don’t expect to make it out of the Top 5. But let’s also be honest: There is great mystery surrounding those Top 5 picks, so there’s always a chance something crazy happens. One of these guys could drop, sure… but I view the chance of any of these guys dropping at less than 10% Who are these guys? Dansby Swanson, a shortstop from Vanderbilt, has “do-it-all” ability. While he’s not going to be a 20-homer guy, he’ll give you everything else you want from your shortstop. Without that power, you can’t be a five-tool guy, but Swanson has that sixth tool: genius-level baseball IQ. I’m sure Paul Molitor dreams about getting guys like this, but he’ll have to keep dreaming: there’s literally zero chance that Swanson falls out of the Top 3, let alone the Top 5. Brendan Rodgers is a prep shortstop from Florida. He’s resided at the top of draft boards since last June. He was great last summer, but was less than great this spring. And then his team got bounced early. But being good and staying healthy was enough to keep him near the top of the board. Committed to Florida State, Rodgers has gotten bigger and stronger and won’t get near Tallahassee (to go to class anyway). If you’re a non-believer, you might say Rodgers lacks the athleticism to stick at shortstop. The thing of it is, even without playing a premium defensive position, Rodgers could be a Top 5 pick if he’s a third baseman because of his bat. The Astros, who pick twice before the Twins, are said to like others more than Rodgers. And they’re unlikely to pick two shortstops. That helps his chances to fall, but the Rockies and Rangers would be crazy to pass on such a talent. The lone member of this group that could fall (and I say “could” as still less than a 10% chance) is Santa Barbara’s Dillon Tate, a right-handed pitcher. Tate gained notoriety by being the best arm in the bullpen for USA’s Collegiate National Team last summer. And now he’s starting for the Gauchos and showing the same stuff. His fastball has been up to 98 with arm-side run. His slider is high-80s and devastating. His other stuff is still “in progress”, but Neil Allen would love to teach him a change-up. If that happened, he’s a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm, that is… if his arm can handle it. He’ll throw over 100 innings this year after throwing less than 50 combined his previous two seasons. I’ll tell you this, though, if Tate’s name hasn’t been announced by the time the Astros make their pick at five, the Twins should sprint that card to the podium and party in the draft room. Why the Twins would pick them? It’s clear that these are the best players in the draft and the Twins would be elated for any of them to fall into their laps. Why the Twins would not pick them? Well, the easy answer is because they wouldn’t be able to. The more complicated question, “Why would the Twins would pass on them?” is a bit more complicated. Since the draft rules changed, the top picks are getting $6 million or more. The exceptions are Carlos Correa (who cut a deal) and Jon Gray (who had just been flagged for a failed drug test). The consensus top guys, who these three are, always got their money. Mark Appel, who was expected to go number one before falling, didn’t get his money (that year) after failing to reach an agreement with the Pirates. So there is definitely risk when you draft a guy that falls. The difference, though, is that teams are better prepared to handle the ramifications of this new draft procedure now that they’ve gone through it three times; the Pirates weren’t prepared and had they been, they would have known they weren’t going to be able to sign Appel. While there aren’t many (any?) sure things in this draft, these three fall into the “best-bets” category and the Twins would be lucky to get any one of them. Unfortunately, that just doesn’t appear to be a likely scenario.

SS Brendan Rodgers of Lake Mary (Longwood HS) in Florida is as close to a consensus #1 as you’ll find in this year’s draft class. That’s on account of him starting at (or near) the very top and - despite having a solid but not great year - that he stayed healthy. His season ended earlier this week with a playoff loss, so he should remain healthy up until the draft. Rodgers has been in the mix to Arizona and since no one has been on the field consistently enough to wrestle it from him, that’s where he’ll remain… for now anyway. P Dillon Tate, UC Santa Barbara, has been the biggest mover this season. The rapid ascension is due to Tate being moved from a reliever to a starter and having success doing it. With that, however, comes the durability question and, lo and behold, Tate missed his last start with a lat strain. While it’s not exactly a long-term concern, when durability was a question mark to start, it’s enough to make you wonder. Or is it? At this point, it won’t matter to the Twins. A relatively healthy Tate will be off the board in the top 5 picks. SS Dansby Swanson, Vanderbilt, has also jumped up the board. Successfully making the transition from second base to shortstop has helped his stock. Personally, I have a hard time ignoring the lack of superstar-level shortstops who come from a four-year college. And Swanson isn’t Tulo (and Tulowitzki went 7th in his draft). To be fair to Swanson, it’s not his fault the draft is not good. But Swanson doesn’t have the pop of Tulowitzki (or even Brian Dozier) and it’s not a slam-dunk he stays at shortstop. The debate, though, is moot because Swanson, who is putting up an 1.100 OPS in the top conference is college, isn’t dropping to the Twins. Those three players are the closest to any consensus Top “pick-your-number” you’ll see and you can feel pretty confident that those three will be off the board before the Twins step to the podium. Of the three, I’d prefer Tate first, Rodgers second and Dansby third - if I were stacking a board - with the bigger gap between Rodgers and Dansby than between Tate and Rodgers. This is where the murky gets murkier. Kyle Tucker, a prep outfielder from Florida, has the prettiest looking swing in the draft and lots of raw power. His stock is quietly going up and it’s been suggested to me that he could be off the board by the time the Twins pick. I’d put him and Twins solidly as a potential match at #6 and that’s why he’s being mentioned only shortly after the “top 3”. He’s also the younger brother of Astro minor leaguer Preston Tucker and you know how the Twins love their bloodlines. Kolby Allard, a prep lefty from California, also shows up in the second group. Allard is unlikely to pitch again until right before the draft, having been sidelined since mid-March with a stress reaction in his back. Allard offers low-to-mid-90 mph heat with a plus curveball, an improving change-up and command that the Twins will love. The knock on Allard is that he’s only going to measure taller than six feet if he stands on his tippy toes. I’d take Allard, cause he’d be signable, he’s young for his class, and his injury isn’t going to be a long-term concern… but he’s really a step below... Brady Aiken. If I would have told you three weeks before last year’s draft that there is a good chance that the Twins would be able to take Aiken, you wouldn’t have believed me. Well, eleven months later, here we are… As we all know, the Astros drafted the polished prep lefty first overall last year and agreed to sign him for $6.5m. An MRI showed some “abnormalities” and the Astros reduced their offer to $5m. Aiken, and his rep Casey Close, balked at that figure and he enrolled at IMG Academy this spring. And as you also know, his season their lasted 12 pitches before he eventually underwent Tommy John surgery last month. There have been other questions raised recently about Aiken, and at this time, there is no general consensus about where he should go. I was told that the afore-linked article gives bloggers a “black-eye”. Basically, Aiken tore his UCL… what else could be wrong/worse? As the article mentions, eventually the truth will be revealed. But for now, health is not my issue with Aiken. He’s an elite talent and you can’t pass on an elite talent because of an injury that many/some/most pitchers will eventually have. My hang-up with Aiken is, if he wouldn’t sign for $5m last year, why would he sign for 20% less than that this year. (The Twins have a sliver under $4m tied to their 6th overall pick.) So, as of right now, those would be my Top 6. Some other names to keep in mind: Louisville pitcher Kyle Funkhouser. Funkhouser has the chops to be a front-end starter, but his lack of command leaves him a step below. Prep righty Mike Nikorak from Pennsylvania is climbing the charts and, with his season just starting, has the most to gain. I’m not going to put him in the Top 6 yet. But I’m not ruling him out. LSU SS Alex Bregman is a player. Where and how he fits is a question, but you can’t simply ignore players like him. Rounding out the Top 10 is Georgia prep OF Daz Cameron. As I mentioned on a draft thread, it doesn't appear the Twins are too heavy on Mike’s kid, but rumors persist that the Astros may pop the Boras client with the 5th pick in the draft. As we wind through the last seven weeks heading to the draft things will change quickly and often, but here’s a good place to start.