Search the Community
Showing results for tags 'danchat'.
-
#8 - Matt Wallner OF (1st Round 2019, Southern Miss) | Another bat-first prospect, Wallner has some serious power behind his bat after hitting 58 HRs at Southern Mississippi (in just 872 PAs!). He did alright at Elizabethton, and his main concern as a hitter will be limiting the strikeouts. Defensively he's a subpar runner and will be limited to corner OF, if not 1B. He also pitched part-time in college, which means he's got the arm to throw out runners. | #7 - Brent Rooker 1B (1st Round 2017, Miss State) | Rooker's very similar to Sabato and Wallner, but unlike them, he's ready to play in the majors. He did well in his first week of games in the majors before fracturing his wrist on a pitch, and we saw a glimpse into his upside. He's got the power to hit 25+ HRs a season and his batting average did not suffer much in the minors. Strikeouts will be a concern, as he had a dangerously high 33.8% strikeout rate at AAA. Despite that he still hit .928 OPS with a super strong .399 OBP. Defensively, he really shouldn't be playing in the outfield. He hasn't played a ton of 1B, but hopefully he's given plenty of practice there because that would be an ideal place to end up. Otherwise he'll be a DH his whole career. | #6 - Jordan Balazovic RHP (5th Round 2016, HS) | The Twins have gone through a drought of starting pitcher prospects for at least 10 years, and have been desperate to get a guy like Balazovic up and going. He mowed through Fort Myers A+ in 2019 with a strong 2.84 ERA, a phenomenal K/9 rate (11.8) without a bad BB/9 rate (2.6). He uses a strong mix of a 94-95 MPH fastball that acts a sinker, and sprinkles in similar-looking curveballs and sliders. He needs to get more innings under his belt and I don't think he profiles as a #1 or #2 starter, but he has a clean injury history and he'll likely be starting in AA at the young age of 21. Balazovic has a bright future in the big leagues if he continues down the path he's headed. | #5 - Jhoan Duran RHP (International from Dominican Republic, acquired in 2018 trade) | The top pitching prospect, Duran turned his career around once arriving in the Twins organization, going from a #20-30 prospect in Arizona to top-tier prospect. Duran's fastball has sped up the past couple season, sitting in the upper 90s and he'll hit 100 every once in a while. His secondary pitch is a splitter that can hit 94, and consistently fool hitters with its fastball-speed. His command can be a bit shaky at times, but that's even been a huge problem for him. Duran does have the toolset to be a dynamite reliever, but he's successfully pitched a starter's workload in the minors and should land in the rotation. Perhaps he pitches in the Twins' bullpen down the stretch in 2021 as his first dip into the MLB pool. | #4 - Royce Lewis SS (1st Round 2017, HS) | Most prospect rankers won't agree with this, but I'm not as high on Lewis as most are. The first overall draft pick in 2017, Lewis had very strong 2017 and 2018 seasons, but he hit poorly in 2019 at A+ and AA. He was promoted to AA despite hitting .665 OPS, and proceeded to hit .649 OPS there. Critics have pointed out that Lewis' swing does not look good and his approach at the plate needs heavy refinement, and his pitch recognition is currently poor. He's still young, turning 22 this summer, but I don't think he's particularly close to being MLB-ready. There has also been debate about whether he will end up at SS or CF, as he has the raw speed to handle both. This ranking has mostly been negative, but Royce has the potential to become a talented hitter with 60-65 power potential and has the highest ceiling of any prospect on this team. I just get the sense that Lewis will become a hitter whose approach at the plate won't click until Year 4 or 5 of his career. | #3 - Alex Kiriloff OF (1st Round 2016, HS) | The Twins are poised to make Kiriloff their starting LF in 2021, and it's not hard to see why. He has a career .317 batting average in the minors, and that's no fluke. Scouts rave about his ability to make consistent contact on tough pitches, he has has some serious power behind his swing, with the potential for 20+ HRs a year. Kiriloff's focus on contact has kept the number of walks low, but that's not a big concern if he hits > .300. He's had a couple of wrist injuries and missed the entire 2017 season. Defensively Kiriloff is one of the lower prospects on this list, and while he has a good glove and a great arm, he may end up at 1B. Hopefully his bat will end up somehwere in the #2-4 spot in the lineup one day. | #2 - Ryan Jeffers C (2nd Round 2018, UNC Wilmington) | This is probably the highest you've ever seen Jeffers on a prospect ranking, but I am comfortable putting him this high. Good catching prospects are rare, and Jeffers is the entire package. He was yet another 'questionable draft pick' in the 2nd round, but the Twins organization sculpted him into one of the best defensive backstops in the minor leagues after initial scouting reports claimed he wouldn't be able to stay at catcher. He ranked as a top-notch pitch framer, and showed as much in his 26 game debut in 2020. His bat was always his calling card, and it didn't disappoint in the minors with a very strong (.296/.383/.453 .836 OPS). He'll take a lot of walks and has the potential for more power. Jeffers is ready to graduate off this list and will push for the starting role as the Twins' catcher. | #1 - Trevor Larnach OF (1st Round 2018, Oregon State) | I conclude with another bat-first position player, of whom has the best minor league track record to this point. Larnach covered 4 levels of the minor leagues through only two years (2018-19) and held his own at every level, never dipping below a .295 batting average or .840 OPS. In total he's recorded a (.307/.385/.468) triple slash, and that's even with only 18 HRs in that stretch. He's got more power in that bat, no doubt. Larnach will take plenty of walks too, as his K/BB ratio was very healthy too. Defensively he's a bit on the slower side, but I think he will work as a RF with a decent glove and strong arm. Once he figures out the big leagues, Larnach is a hitter whose name should be penned into the #3 spot in the lineup and be let loose to rake to his heart's content. || I will add one more blog post soon going over my formula of how these rankings were calculated. Until then, let me know what you think!
-
Continuing on from Part 2: #16 - Blayne Enlow RHP (3rd Round 2017, HS) | Enlow has had a very average minor league career so far. He throws 4 different pitches, which gives him an edge to be a starting pitcher, but his K/BB ratio (2.39) leaves a lot to be desired. He averages 92 MPH but can touch 95-96 on occasion. Enlow still has time to take a big step forward, and a good 2021 season could vault him into the top 10. | #15 - Edwar Colina RHP (International from Venezuela, 2016) | Ignore his bad outing in the final game of the 2020 season, I think Colina has a bright future, albeit as a reliever. His fastball can reach up to 100 MPH, and in combination with a strong slider, he was able to average about a strikeout an inning. Walks have been a problem for him, with a career 3.9 BB/9. He found more success in 2019 once he mostly ditched his changeup, though if he could bring that back, his repertoire would be all the more stronger. Colina should bounce between AAA and the MLB team in 2021, with the hope that he can figure things out like Jorge Alcala did in 2020. | #14 - Misael Urbina CF (International from Venezuela, 2018) | Urbina gets the nod over the other top [internal] international prospects after he had a strong 2019 in the Dominican Summer League, hitting .825 OPS. Urbina is ahead of most other prospects his age (he'll turn 19 soon), as scouts praise his plate discipline and hand-eye coordination. If he can develop power later on, he should jump up into the top 5. He was a base-stealing threat as well, but it's questionable if he'll continue to be such a fast runner after he puts on more muscle. | #13 - Keoni Cavaco 3B (1st Round 2019, HS) | Many considered Cavaco to be a reach in the draft at pick #13, and his play in rookie league only confirmed this for some. Cavaco hit .470 OPS with a dreadful 38% strikeout rate. Hope should not be abandoned for the young infielder, as many project him to have a 55 to 60 power ranking, and he's working on accessing this power. He's also blazing fast, having enough quickness to play SS, but is currently error-prone. Cavaco needs to get his career on the right path with a strong 2021 season. | #12 - Cole Sands RHP (5th Round 2018, Florida State) | Sands has dealt with some injury issues, but when he's healthy, he deals. He had a quality fastball that touches 95/96 and mixes in a curveball that might be the best in our system. He turned in a strong 2019 season, posting a 2.68 ERA in 18 starts with healthy K/BB numbers. Sands turns 24 in 2021, and needs to pitch a whole season (likely at AA) to prove himself as a starting pitcher. He could challenge for a spot in the 2022 rotation if all goes well. | #11 - Matt Canterino RHP (2nd Round 2019, Rice) | We haven't seen a full season in the minors from Canterino yet, but the scouts are raving about him. He's recently developed a nasty changeup that complements his strong fastball, which has already seen an increase in speed since his college days. He's going to be getting strikeouts by the dozens, if his track record is anything to go by. Canterino is still a ways away, and for pitching prospects, I don't count chickens until the eggs are close to hatch. | #10 - Gilberto Celesinto CF (International from , acquired in 2018 trade) | Unquestionably the best outfielder defensively on the prospect ranking, Celestino boasts a 60-60 run and fielding toolset and could be an elite defender in CF. As you might expect, his bat has been a bit shaky in the minors, as his 2019 season ran hot and cold - his first half was dismal, but his second half was stupendous. He won't be a power hitter in the big leagues, but he did knock out 10 HRs. Celestino profiles as a CF in the same vein as Kevin Kiermaier or Kevin Pillar. | #9 - Aaron Sabato 1B (1st Round 2020, North Carolina) | The Twins just can't resist a good hitting prospect, no matter how their caliber of athleticism. Sabato, the Twins' latest 1st rounder, crushed the ACC conference at college as he had a crazy .332/.459/.708 line. That's only over 368 career PAs, however. He's already rated as a 60 power hitter, meaning he could be a 30+ HRs a year guy. The problem will be what position he plays... it's either going to be 1B or DH. He's already a hefty guy and will need to learn how to play 1B. I don't mind having a pure hitting prospect like this, there's just a few too many of them just like him for my taste.
-
Continuing on from part 1: #24 - Gabriel Maciel CF (International from Brazil, acquired in 2018 trade) | The second best prospect acquired in the Escobar trade, Maciel is a speedy outfielder who loves to spray singles all around the field. He's a frequent base stealer who's capable of swiping 20+ a year, but gets caught more often than he should. He has a career .288 average in the minors and will rarely strike out, but the downside is that he has little power. Not just a lack of HRs, but also 2Bs and 3Bs. He profiles as a 4th OF who will be useful as a pinch hitter, defensive replacement, and pinch runner. | #23 - Luis Rijo RHP (Acquired in 2018 trade) | Rijo jumped onto the scene after a great 2019 season as he posted a 2.86 ERA over 19 starts at single A Cedar Rapids. Sporting a WHIP of nearly 1.0 and a healthy 8.3 K/9, Rijo's fastball touches 95 and his secondary pitches are rated well. Scouts have critisized the 'hitability' of his fastball and deemed his curveball to be too predictable, which probably factors into why he was passed up in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. He's still got time to improve his pitches and build more innings in the minors to try and become a #4/5 starter. Unlike other pitching prospects, he doesn't strike me as a future reliever, unless he becomes a long reliever. | #22 - Nick Gordon SS/2B (1st Round 2014, HS) | Gordon has had a long and drawn out minor league career, but seemed to be heading towards the majors in 2019 once being added to the 40 man roster, but a leg injury prevented that (he was a near lock to at least be called up in September). He then had a long bout with COVID in 2020 and never even made it to the alternate site. He's now 25 and has just one option left, but remains on the roster. His minor league track record isn't bad, as he's been a decent pure hitter (.276 average), but he never developed any power and will likely end up like his older brother Dee - a sub .700 OPS hitter. To provide value he'll need to become a strong defensive player, but he's also got a shaky track record as a fielder and might end up as a second baseman. All in all, Gordon will likely settle into a utility role if he can crack the majors. | #21 - Spencer Steer 2B (3rd Round 2019, Oregon) | Steer had a quality debut in 2019, hitting .949 OPS at Elizabethton and went to single A Cedar Rapids and hit for .358 OPS (.745 OPS). He handled 3B and 2B primarily, and doesn't seem likely to play SS. The Twins will need to figure out how to develop his power, after hitting just 12 HRs in 3 years at Oregon (and 4 in the minors so far). The scouts seem to believe that there is potential for more pop in his bat, and that would elevate him into a top 15 spot if he could. | #20 - Ben Rortvedt C (2nd Round 2016, HS) | Ben seems destined to be a long-term backup catcher in the big leagues. Scouts rave about his defensive capabilities behind the plate, consistently blocking balls in the dirt, pitching frame, and throwing out runners. He's also go the potential to hit a few HRs and will take plenty of walks. The main problem is that he's a mediocre hitter, likely doomed to be a .210-.230 hitter in the majors. MLB teams will put up with that if he's as good defensively as the scouts say. | #19 - Wander Javier SS (International from Dominican Republic, 2016) | The Twins poured $4M into Javier in 2016, and the returns don't look good so far. After hitting well in Elizabethton in 2017, Javier missed 2018 with an injury, and turned in a very poor 2019 season at Cedar Rapids. Javier needed a rebound year in 2020 to get back on track, and now he's already Rule 5 eligible despite having just 552 professional PAs. Javier should be better than a .177 hitter, and has a skillset that should play at SS, but his time is running out. He needs several years in the minors just to get back on track, but if he could, he's got the potential to be a top 5 prospect. Everyone below him on the rankings doesn't have close to the ceiling Javier does. | #18 - Travis Blankenhorn 2B/3B (3rd Round 2015, HS) | Like many other prospects in this system, Blankenhorn's strength is hitting the ball hard, and is a bit on the chunky side. Splitting most of his time between 2B, 3B, and LF (he stopped playing 3B at AA, though), Travis took a step forward in 2019 at AA and crushed 19 HRs with a nice .278 average. He doesn't take a lot of walks, and his strikeout rate isn't a big concern. He's on the slower side, and would likely be a liability at 3B and LF. He's got the bat to play 2B, and he's probably ready to get his first big chance (he got into 1 game with the Twins in 2020). Expect to see him on the bench and play a bit in Marwin Gonzalez's old role when injuries inevitably hit. | #17 - Jose Miranda 3B (2nd Round 2016, HS) | Miranda is the last player on this list to have been passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. He boasts a solid set of tools but nothing splashy - he looks the part to handle 3B, but his bat has never quite developed. In almost 600 PAs at Fort Myers, he hit just .659 OPS. Scouts think there's potential for more power (just 8 HRs in 2019) and multiple sources lauded his bat speed and swing, but so far he's been unable to realize his potential. He needs to take a big step forward if he's going to want to become a starter in the big leagues.
-
- blankenhorn
- danchat
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
I'm attempting my first batch of prospect rankings ever! Here's how it will go: I'm calling this an Aggregated Prospect Ranking. That means that I'm outsourcing opinions from several sources to form my own rankings - I haven't watched most of these players, so there isn't a whole lot that I can add from a scouting standpoint. I would, however, like to weigh the rankings to factors measured by others; for example, boosting a player's ranking due to position scarcity, or quantifying how their minor league play boosts their odds at panning out in the majors. It'll make for a useful ranking to look back on in the future, but just remember that I'm not an expert! I will reveal my formula for ranking the players where they are in the final article... and there will be some selections that some will find surprising. But I hope you will enjoy it! Sources: MLB.com Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/ Fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/twins Baseball Savant: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dakota-chalmers-663793?stats=career-r-pitching-milb Other Prospect Rankings on Twins Daily Honorable Mentions Outside the Top 30 RHP Griffin Jax - The former 3rd rounder has been available to be taken in the Rule 5 Draft in 2019 and 2020, but with no takers. He's stuffed the stat sheet in the minors with consistently low ERAs, but does not get strikeouts often and his stuff is likely not going to cut it in the MLB. He's already 26 and in AAA, which makes him a spot starter at best. OF Kala'i Rosario - A 5th rounder in the very small Twins 2021 Draft Class, Rosario is a high schooler out of Hawaii. Scouts expect him to develop some power as he gets older. I could see him cracking prospect lists in 2022-23 if all goes well. RHP Bailey Ober - Despite topping out around 87 MPH, Ober drew tons of strikeouts and clean innings in his first full season in 2019 between Rookie league, A+, and AA. The Twins saw enough promise in him to hand him a 40 man roster spot and could make his MLB debut this year. Ober will likely need to move to the bullpen to get a few more ticks on his fastball, but his breaking pitches and command are top notch. RHP Dakota Chalmers - Acquired in the Fernando Rodney trade, Chalmers was added to the 40 man roster in late 2019, meaning he's already burned an option. He has a fastball that tops out at 96 and has the secondary pitches to consistently strike anyone out, but he's outside of the top 30 due to an inability to throw strikes and a spotty injury history. If he ever does crack the majors, it'll likely be as a reliever since he's never pitched more than 67 innings in a season. OF Willie Joe Garry Jr. - He didn't hit so well in Elizabethton(rookie league) with a .228/.301/.365 line, but scouts are never-the-less still excited for him. The lefty has the tools to be a CFer with a strong arm, but his bat has a long way to go. He's not much more than a lottery ticket at this point. 3B Seth Gray - Gray had a decent debut at Elizabethton with a .225/.336/.445 (.781 OPS) line. He already has hit for power, as he swatted in 11 HRs in his first 257 PAs, and drew 30 walks in that span. His fielding ability is questionable, as it's fair to wonder if he'll stick at 3B. The Top 30 #30 - Yunior Severino 2B (International from Dominican Republic, acquired in 2018 trade) Severino had a quality rookie season in 2018, but fractured his thumb in 2019 and didn't play much. Still only 21, Severino has plenty of raw strength, but has yet to put it on display. He's going to be striking out a lot. He has a strong enough arm to play any spot on the diamond, but his bigger frame will likely put him at 2B. | #29 - Emmanuel Rodriguez OF (International from Dominican Republic, 2019) We haven't gotten to see our top international prospect from the 2019 class thanks to the virus. He'll turn 18 this year and has a long road ahead of him, but boasts a jack of all trades toolset. He's got a strong arm and enough speed to play center, and even some pop in his bat. | #28 - Alreick Soularie OF (2nd round 2020, Tennessee) Many questioned this pick at the time, and you can count me as one of them. Normally I'd be placing a 2nd rounder coming out of college higher on the list, but there are too many question marks surrounding Soularie to earn a high ranking. He appears to be a one tool prospect - he can hit. He managed a .336 batting average at Tennessee and reportedly shows great bat control. He was not good defensively and has a ways to go if he wants to be a corner outfielder. | #27 - Josh Winder RHP (7th round 2018, Virginia Military Institute) Winder put himself on the radar with a strong 2019 campaign, sporting a WHIP under 1.0 and a shiny 2.65 ERA. He even managed 5.96 innings a start. He was old for pitching at Low A (22), and may not have the type of pitches that makes him a true threat in the big leagues, but the results are there. He will be Rule 5 eligible in 2021. | #26 - Will Holland 2B (5th round 2019, Auburn) Holland had a rough outing at Elizabethton hitting .192, Holland profiles as an athlete who is still figuring out how to hit. Fangraphs rated him with the highest "run" tool, but thinks he'll end up at 2B, while MLB.com's report claims he can stick at short. If he can hold up defensively at short, he'll have a chance to develop into a quality utility infielder. | #25 - Danny De Andrade SS (International from Venezuela, 2021) The Twins just acquired De Andrade two weeks ago, spending $2.2M to land him as their top international free agent of the year. He ranked as a top 10 international prospect in this year's class. The 16-year-old has a solid frame to grow into, but none of his tools stands out. We don't have many pure shortstop prospects in our system, so it would be ideal if De Andrade could rise up to be one of the better ones. Coming up next: #17-24
- 3 comments
-
Recent Articles
-
Recent Posts
-
3
Hey, look here
Whoooooooo Ranked ProspectsTurangChourioQueroFrelickBillWilburSpankyEdgarJohn NOOOOOOOOOO...
By Brock Beauchamp
Last post date -
0
Can Jorge López Rediscover His First-Half Success?
The Twins made a much-needed trade for an all-star reliever at last year’s deadline, but what they got fell short of e...
By Lou Hennessy
Last post date
-
Blog Entries
-
Who's Online (See full list)
- There are no registered users currently online