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In my first blog entry, the last thing I want to lead off with is a topic that has already been picked apart ad nauseam. The Carlos Correa offseason free agency saga has been analyzed 500 different ways. But, for me, one part of the finalized contract still makes me scratch my head and wonder if there is more to the story. Much has been made about the ankle and who knew what and when. The Twins have maintained that they already knew about the ankle and it did not stop them from reportedly offering Correa a 10 yr/$285M contract initially. They knew that wasn't going to be enough but weirder things have happened, right? Obviously, you know how it went after that. The Giants and Mets both offered much more than the Twins but both backed out after using the same doctor to examine the same MRI. That's when the Twins reentered the picture and signed Correa to the 6 yr/$200M contract with 4 team options. A full no trade clause and no player opt outs. To me, when you compare the initially offered 10 yr/$285 against the finalized 6 yr/$200 that is where I still have questions. If the Twins already knew about the ankle and were confident to offer the 10 yr/$285M initially, why was the final contract only 6 yr/$200M? Initially I figured Correa lost leverage when the Giants and Mets were no longer in the picture, thus, less money and years. But Scott Boras, Correa's agent, is much savvier than that. If he put out word to the rest of the league that arguably the best SS in the majors is now available for less money and years, you would have a lot of other teams want to jump back into talks. That alone would be enough for Boras to force Minnesota to honor the initial offer of 10 yr/ $285M if they wanted to lock it up. Another possibility is the additional medical exams of Correa's ankle did, in fact, uncover new details about the ankle and its ability to hold up over 10 years. That is when I would've expected the traditionally risk adverse Twins to run for the hills. Instead, they doubled down and still offered Correa the richest free agency deal in franchise history (albeit at a discounted rate but its still uncharted territory for the Twins). A 3rd possibility is Correa was simply over all of the drama. He wanted this month long negotiation to be over and to settle into his long term home with his family and still get paid a kings ransom. At TwinsFest, he said he called Boras and told him to "just get it done with the Twins." At that point, just get it done, and quickly, became the sentiment. Whatever it was, the Twins had an elite SS fall into their laps two years in a row. Any chance of a rebuild has been set aside for at least another 6 years so, for that, I am thankful. I would still love to know what changed at the last minute. Bookmark this blog and come back to it in 2027 and you may have your answer.

Two and a half weeks after Carlos Correa agreed to terms with the Mets, he remains a free agent, and the Twins now seem to be re-entering the fray opportunistically. As the rumors of the Twins' serious renewed interest emerged this weekend, many Twins fans expressed that they no longer desire an improbable Correa-Twins reunion. There are a few common arguments Twins fans against Twins pursuing a long-term deal with Correa use: he “wasn’t special in 2022,” he doesn’t want to be in Minnesota and is just “using us,” and that he’s a “damaged good.” Those arguments are all wrong or flawed. Correa wasn’t that Good in 2022 This argument is the least common, but I’ve seen it enough that I had to address it. It’s an argument that largely hinges on batting average and RBIs, which we know are not great measures of offensive production. There is also a somewhat accurate perception that Correa wasn’t very “clutch” in 2022. By any measure, Correa was awesome in 2022. Correa put up a 4.4 fWAR, 5.4 bWAR, and 140 wRC+- which means he was a 40% above league average hitter. That's a superstar, especially considering he plays a premium position very well and was the platinum glove winner in 2021. Beyond his outstanding performance in 2022, Correa is projected to be even more productive in 2023, with Fangraphs steamer projecting him to put up a 5.7 fWAR season in 2023. While these numbers are great, some Twins fans claim he wasn’t that clutch. That is partially true. His wRC+ with runners in scoring position in 2022 was 109, much lower than his outstanding 140 wRC+ on the season, but still 9% above league average. He also put up a 1.26 Win Probability Added, meaning that based on his situational production, he added 1.26 wins for the Twins in 2022. If none of these advanced metrics do it for you and you still care more about RBI, Correa is 6th all-time in postseason RBI and is the active leader, 10 RBI ahead of Jose Altuve. That’s pretty good! Let’s hope he can add to his total as a Twin in 2023. Sometimes it takes a deep dive to evaluate a player's production. That shouldn't be the case with Correa, but I hope my short analysis clarifies what should be obvious: Carlos Correa is an excellent ballplayer. He’s Using the Twins/Doesn’t Want to be Here I do not care if he might use the Twins for leverage in his Mets negotiations. A free agent is "using the Twins" until they are not. There's no way for the Twins to know if he is or isn't using them for leverage. The only way to find out a free agent's intentions is to enter the negotiations in good faith and make strong offers, which the Twins reportedly did this weekend. Now, there are two ways this could go. One way is that he signs with the Twins for around nine years and $275 million. Great. The Twins have signed a player with the early makings of a Hall of Fame resume, and he will play the remainder of his career in Minnesota. This outcome could be an issue if a player who is unhappy to be in Minnesota doesn’t buy in and is just upset about how free agency went. We've seen that be an issue before, as Minnesota is rarely players' number-one destination in free agency. These concerns are unfounded with Correa. By all accounts, Correa was a great teammate and member of the organization in 2022. This was on essentially a one-year deal after his free agency was a huge disappointment. So, we have to imagine that his leadership and “buy-in” would be as good or even better after signing to be with the Twins for the rest of his career. Alternatively, and far more likely, the Twins' offer will allow Correa to get more money from the Mets or more favorable terms around his ankle injury. That outcome is acceptable too. Given how great he was as a leader and teammate in 2022, I’m happy for the Twins to help him to get a better deal, and I won’t be sad about him holding Steve Cohen’s feet to the fire, either. Either way, the Twins re-engaging and maybe "being used" is completely fine. Hopefully, it results in him signing with the Twins, but the alternative that he gets a better deal does not negatively affect the Twins at all. Damaged Good First off, no baseball player is a damaged good. They are baseball players, but they are also human beings. They are not goods. It is, however, extremely reasonable to be concerned about the Twins potentially signing long-term a player whose medicals have caused two big market teams to rethink their major free agent signing. I am especially sympathetic to this argument, given how injuries derailed the 2022 season. The Twins saw his medical last year, though. And while they weren’t evaluating his ankle for a long-term deal, they should at least have some idea of what is going on with his ankle. Given that he missed no time for the injury in 2022, it’s hard to imagine the situation has changed that much. If the repaired ankle has deteriorated, the Twins will at least be able to see an MRI before actually signing Correa. I am also hopeful that with a new training staff that will bring a new approach, the Twins generally will manage injuries better and have fewer and shorter injuries in 2023. They should have full faith in the new training staff they brought in to properly deal with Correa's ankle as best as possible. While I also don’t feel great about Correa’s health, I am hopeful that if the Twins sign him, they know what they are signing up for and are ready to handle it. Another aspect of the failed physicals is that they may provide the Twins a rare opportunity to sign an elite player in free agency. There will never be a perfect free agent, and if there were, they wouldn’t likely choose the Twins. So, the Twins are correct to try to take advantage of this rare opportunity, even if it’s a massive risk on the health front. At the end of this saga, it seems that Correa will more than likely be a Met. If that's the case, it won't have affected the Twins that he "used" them at all. If he does end up in Minnesota, Twins fans should embrace the risk they will have taken and be excited that the Twins will have an elite player for most of the next decade.

This offseason has been frustrating. A couple of nice marginal signings in Joey Gallo and Christian Vásquez, both of which I’m kind of a fan of. But the Twins talked for months about their desire to bring back Carlos Correa and made him a sizeable, yet somewhat uncompetitive offer to return, and certainly were never going to get to the final $315 million number he signed for. They should’ve done just about everything they could to retain his talent and leadership, though because there are a lot of good things too look forward to with this team. They have very solid homegrown depth throughout the lineup and a fairly good group of 8 pitchers, who will give them a chance to win just about every day, but they lack the star power needed to really contend for anything more than an AL Central title. Depth on Offense On the offensive side of the ball, the Twins have very solid starting level players at every position, besides shortstop in their opening day lineup. In fact, according to Fangraphs ZiPS, by Dan Szymborski, the Twins are projected above average at every position, besides left field. The starters are good, but the reason I’m so optimistic about the roster is that in addition to those starters, the Twins bench players- which will include some most of Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, and Gilberto Celestino all have talent to be tapped into. Gordon, coming off of a breakout season, will be sure to see plenty of game time; Wallner had a great season in the minors and first taste of the big leagues; Jeffers crushes lefties; and Celestino is still young and at times in both the majors and minors showed power that the Twins might be able to tap into. If they had signed Correa, Kyle Farmer would just be a platoon bat in this mix off the bench- another good role player to have. However, one of Matt Wallner and Gilberto Celestino, will start in AAA, with Kyle Garlick likely to be the Opening Day RHH corner outfield platoon bat. The Twins also have a strong group of prospects beyond Wallner and Celestino who will be able to make an impact in 2023- Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Austin Martin. That organizational depth offensively is really exciting. It should enable them to better handle injury problems, especially if Nick Paparesta can help the team have just normal injury luck. The foundation is good enough to make one think that it was time to add (or keep) a superstar. They have a lot of really good players, but beyond the oft-injured Byron Buxton, they have no superstars. There are guys who could be in 2023, but no one is a bonified superstar beyond Buxton. This depth of “really good” definitely could help the Twins be a solidly above average offense. But if you add in Carlos Correa (replacing Kyle Farmer at short, pushing him to a platoon utility role), with better health and some steps up, the offense would’ve had a chance to be once again a premier offense in the league, like we all enjoyed in 2019. 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th C Christian Vásquez Ryan Jeffers 1B Luis Arráez Alex Kirilloff José Miranda 2B Jorge Polanco Nick Gordon Kyle Farmer Edouard Julien* Austin Martin* 3B José Miranda Kyle Farmer Royce Lewis* Brooks Lee* SS Kyle Farmer Nick Gordon Royce Lewis* LF Trevor Larnach Kyle Garlick Nick Gordon Matt Wallner CF Byron Buxton Nick Gordon Joey Gallo Gilberto Celestino* RF Joey Gallo Matt Wallner Alex Kirilloff DH Alex Kirilloff Byron Buxton Luis Arráez Starting Pitching Depth/Strong Bullpen The Twins also have strong depth in the rotation, and again lack that star power. However you want to label each guy, the first 5 starting pitchers is a group of 2s and 3s. If they start with a 6-man rotation, that would arguably also apply to Winder, who seems likeliest to win that 6th starter job, barring the addition of say, Johnny Cueto. They also have Varland and Woods Richardson ready to pitch when they are needed, which I’m sure won’t take long. They’ll also hope that Jordan Balazovic and Chris Paddack are ready to step in later in the season, although that seems unlikely for both guys. Having 8 guys that fall between “pretty good” and “fine” is a really good place to be, when one third of their games were started by Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy in 2022. The Twins had a .370 winning percentage in those games. In 2023, those starts should made by Ober, Winder, Varland, and Woods Richardson, which will give the Twins a chance in so many more games, raising the floor considerably. Just as with the offense, the starting staff is deep with good talent waiting in the wings, but lacks that high end starter. 1st Tyler Mahle 2nd Joe Ryan 3rd Sonny Gray 4th Kenta Maeda 5th Bailey Ober 6th Josh Winder 7th Louis Varland* 8th Simeon Woods Richardson* 9th Jordan Balazovic* 10th Chris Paddack* You finally have star power in the back of the bullpen. Jhoan Durán is one of the elite arms in all of baseball. Caleb Theilbar is an outstanding lefty reliever and Griffin Jax is a stud and seems to be getting better and trying to throw harder. Jorge López will hopefully return to closer to his 2022 Baltimore form, making for a really strong middle and backend of the bullpen, which will likely be added to in free agency. Jorge Alcalá is returning and Jovani Moran is poised to step up. The maybe can get more out of Trevor Megill or get breakouts from Cole Sands and Ronny Henriquez too. So, the bullpen has a great chance to be a strength and has that same depth as the rotation and offense do. Good Roster Devoid of a Second Superstar Overall, I think the Twins have a really good roster. It has really good players in almost every position, many of them under control for multiple years, although much less so in the rotation. The roster, as constructed, should have a chance to contend with Cleveland (projections system have the Twins just behind them and tied with Chicago). But the Twins could have been at least co-division favorites had they capitalized on the great depth they’ve built and the books they’ve worked hard to keep clean by signing Carlos Correa, which in the end they never tried hard enough to do. Maybe they still can acquire that elite talent via trade before the season or at the deadline. This front office is certainly unpredictable. If they do acquire that elite talent and have “normal luck”, we could see a fun season where people flood to Target Field, buy the new jerseys, and maybe even celebrate that elusive postseason victory.

Since the winter meetings begin this weekend, I compiled 3 scenarios of free agent hitters the Twins might find themselves considering. All three scenarios cost roughly the same, assuming that an equal amount has been set aside for pitching as well. Scenario #1 has the Twins signing Willson Contreras, Josh Bell, Luke Voit, and Elvis Andrus (who will cover SS at least until Lewis/Lee are ready)... leans more toward RH hitters Scenario #2 - the superstar route - similar to 2022 Scenario #3 features Dansby Swanson as the prime target, with Michael Brantley's 130ish wRC+ and on-base skills providing more offence In scenarios #1 and #2, Jorge Polanco has been dealt elsewhere & Luis Arraez is playing 2B (assuming his offseason conditioning goes as planned). In all 3 scenarios, Max Kepler has been dealt away. (note: I fully anticipate Polanco & Kepler being on the team come Opening Day - this is just a fun exercise to explore a "what if" and examine the potential domino effect of signing certain players) The objective is to consider the impact of the Twins signing certain key free agents, and how some signings might prevent the team from affording other needs. What approach matters to you the most?

I woke up on Saturday morning feeling a little sad. And no, my sadness did not come from the fact that my wife and I were embarking on the three-day sojourn of potty-training our 2-year-old. It was because my Timberwolves lost another heartbreaker the night before, eliminating them from the playoffs. Isn’t that a little pathetic that a grown man is emotionally affected by a basketball team losing? Sort of. But there’s more to fandom than being overly invested in a team’s performance. A good friend of mine from South Dakota cheers for the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Celtics, Tennessee Titans, New York Islanders, and Duke Blue Devils. He blames his dad for his strange allegiances: “I’m a second-generation bandwagoner,” he says. That’s not normal. Most sports fans cheer for their hometown team. There are outliers like those who jumped on Coach K’s bandwagon this March; those who cheer for a team because there is a certain player or coach you really like (for me that’s LeBron James); those who you really appreciate a team’s culture (a popular one here is the Tim Duncan Spurs teams); or those who just like a team’s uniforms (yup, clothes). Being a fan means being a part of something bigger than oneself: a fanbase, a culture, a team. Depending on level of commitment and following, it can often feel like you really are a part of the team. I followed the 2020 Twins closely, watching portions of all 60 games that year. That highly-anticipated season was filled with adversity, struggles, and resilience. After rallying to clinch the division on the last day of the season, the Twins were quickly extinguished in the playoffs by the Houston Astros. When I heard Jorge Polanco strikeout looking to end the series on the radio, tears rolled down my cheeks as I drove home. Not only did I ache for some long-awaited playoff success (it’s been 20 years for crying out loud), I wanted it for those players. I “knew” this group of men as much as someone can without ever having met them or even attended a game in-person that season (thanks, Covid). I watched them struggle and overcome. I saw their joys and pains. Sure, my reaction to their loss may have been a little much, and quite frankly had more to do with my emotional state and level of energy (we were new parents of a six-month old at the time). But that team made me feel something, be a part of something, and just have something to cheer for. Life is hard. We need things to pull us out of our own heads, out of our own agendas and plans. Sports is one such thing. It’s a chance to cheer. To take joy in something external to yourself that you have no control over. We try to take control over far too much in life; the outcome of your team’s season is not something you can control. Fandom is a chance to let go and just enjoy life. Sometimes, the lack of control can be painful: it can be even more agonizing to watch my team lose than it was when I was an athlete and lost a heartbreaking game. Because then, I was able to influence the outcome; I knew I had given every ounce of effort to succeed. So if I lost, I could live with it. When the Timberwolves lost on Friday, it continued to sting because I felt helpless in front of the situation. I watched as their season wilted away and couldn’t do anything to stop it. Often when fans feel this helplessness we rush to Twitter and b**** and moan about the team doing this, or failing to do that, as if we are owed something by our sports heroes. We so often forget that these animatronic athletic machines are human beings. They have families. Hopes and dreams. Fears. Wounds. Suffering. Contrary to popular opinion, money and fame don’t cover up the human condition these men and women deal with every day. Just like you and me. So next time your team loses, and you’re about to go to Twitter or your group chat with the boys, remember that there’s a person behind that uniform that has “failed” you. Quite honestly, the more I read what is written about them, hear their interviews, and watch their games, the more I can see the goodness inside of them and the humanity within them; which in turn has led to an appreciation for them outside of what they can do for my team. Take Patrick Beverly and Carlos Correa. I have always known that Pat Bev is a whiner, agitator, and kind of a jerk when he plays basketball; he’s the kind of guy you hate playing against, but love having on your team. Since he’s been in Minnesota, I’ve grown to appreciate the toughness, leadership, and energy he brings to a team and fanbase, without ignoring the not-so-good things about him. I hated Carlos Correa for what he did to not only take part in but lead the Astros sign-stealing scandal that helped win them a World Series in 2017. So, when he signed with the Twins in March, I was torn. I had “decided” that I loved the player (damn he can play) but hated the person. Ever since he put on a Twins uniform, he’s grown on me. He brings accountability to a clubhouse that is in desperate need of a bounceback year. His constant smile plastered on his face while patrolling shortstop reveals how he relishes playing a kid’s game as a grown man. He has his baby boy’s name etched in his glove, where most players have their own name and number. He’s shown deference that despite his massive salary and pedigree, he’s not trying to take over as the big man on campus. Thanks for showing me that you’re people too, C4 and Pat Bev. There’s a reason why we pace around our living rooms with the game on the line. Why we covertly pull out our phones at weddings to check the score. Why we rush to the nearest TV when the game’s on the line. Being a fan shows our need to belong to something, to find joy in daily life, and just let go of all the s*** that life throws at us. It isn’t just an obsession. It’s an expression of who we are. Check out my other unique sports content at the Bad Loser Blog; covering basketball, football, baseball, and the human side of sports.

I guess I've felt the Twins were very prone to place players on the IL when they were unable to play for a day or two. I've also thought they were inclined to keep players on the IL perhaps longer than needed, such as with Sonny Gray, who was supposed to be on the Injured List for the minimum amount of time, and then he was out for an additional week plus. Now I am starting to really not know what is going on. Case in point--Byron Buxton. After the knee injury scare, he didn't play for over a week and then DHed and then sat out a game. So basically all Buxton did in a 10-day period was DH one game. Now Buxton was removed from a game and out of today's game with an off day to follow. It would be speculation to determine what is going on, but Tingler indicated his current injury is a hip problem (same as last year at this time?). Bremer and Morneau were speculating that Buxton's knee was still bothering him. We all know Buxton's extensive injury history and his immense value to the team when healthy, but is carrying him on the active roster with frequent DH days and days off better than placing him on the IL to get as right as he can be? I know it's not an easy decision, but I have to believe going in to every day with "will he or won't he" be in the lineup (and center field) really the way to go? Next case--Carlos Correa. I guess it was understood he wouldn't play at all in the series with the Athletics, but will he sit out more games after Monday? If he misses two series, wouldn't it make sense that he be put on the Injured List? If he can play against the Astros (and I'm sure he really wants to), it probably is a good move to avoid the IL for him and they got a look at Royce Lewis as a fringe benefit. Sonny Gray (and maybe Bailey Ober)--Both guys were originally diagnosed with minor injuries that would require no more than the minimum time on the IL. Gray spent 19 days on the IL and would have taken even more (scheduled rehab start in St. Paul) which changed to starting for the Twins. I haven't seen anything about Ober being activated and his 10 days are up before Tuesday's game against Houston. Alex Kirilloff--AK went from being in the preliminary lineup to the IL. He didn't stay on the list too long (three weeks) and he was sent on rehab to St. Paul and apparently recalled mostly because there wasn't anyone else on the 40-man roster. To me, this is a crazy quilt of decisions. There really isn't consistency in the decision-making process. One decision seems to prioritize long-term health of the player, another seems to prioritize winning today's game and a third seems to be about expediency. I don't have first-hand knowledge of any of these situations, but it's puzzling to me. Please comment and discuss.

For those among us that have seen the earth orbit the sun more than 50 times, the St. Paul paper had a writer named Don Riley who weekly had an item "scattergunning from the catbird's seat". In a similar fashion,I have several thoughts and have thrown them together for comment: 1) Has anyone seen two wackier late inning victories than the Twins 2-1 win on Friday and the 5-4 walk-off on Tuesday? 2) Raise your hand if you thought at the start of the season that the best lineup against a right hander would include Nick Gordon in left field and Luis Arraez at first base. 3) Is it time to move Carlos Correa down in the lineup temporarily? He seems to be fighting himself at the plate. 4) With three of the next four opponent starters left handed and a roster reduction coming, I think Garlick will be getting his chance, but if he doesn't hit soon he could be the roster casualty. 5) Dylan Bundy's stuff doesn't make anyone go "wow", but his command has been beyond excellent and he knows how to pitch. 6) Things are going well for the Twins now, but the bullpen doesn't have enough impact arms. They either need to go outside the box and convert a minor league starter or outside the organization (my preference). 7) Sano, Correa and Polanco are off to miserable starts, but there are dozens of established major leaguers who aren't hitting. ? I’ll believe that Alex Kirilloff is healed when he starts driving the ball regularly. I'm not convinced he will contribute to this year's team. 9) The schedule in May for the Twins is Charmin soft. They need to take advantage and run of a 20-win month. 10) Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober have been terrific so far. This shouldn't have been taken for granted. Maybe the Twins' staff knows something about developing pitchers after all. Please comment on any of these items or any random thoughts you might have about the 2022 Twins.