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In my first blog entry, the last thing I want to lead off with is a topic that has already been picked apart ad nauseam. The Carlos Correa offseason free agency saga has been analyzed 500 different ways. But, for me, one part of the finalized contract still makes me scratch my head and wonder if there is more to the story. Much has been made about the ankle and who knew what and when. The Twins have maintained that they already knew about the ankle and it did not stop them from reportedly offering Correa a 10 yr/$285M contract initially. They knew that wasn't going to be enough but weirder things have happened, right? Obviously, you know how it went after that. The Giants and Mets both offered much more than the Twins but both backed out after using the same doctor to examine the same MRI. That's when the Twins reentered the picture and signed Correa to the 6 yr/$200M contract with 4 team options. A full no trade clause and no player opt outs. To me, when you compare the initially offered 10 yr/$285 against the finalized 6 yr/$200 that is where I still have questions. If the Twins already knew about the ankle and were confident to offer the 10 yr/$285M initially, why was the final contract only 6 yr/$200M? Initially I figured Correa lost leverage when the Giants and Mets were no longer in the picture, thus, less money and years. But Scott Boras, Correa's agent, is much savvier than that. If he put out word to the rest of the league that arguably the best SS in the majors is now available for less money and years, you would have a lot of other teams want to jump back into talks. That alone would be enough for Boras to force Minnesota to honor the initial offer of 10 yr/ $285M if they wanted to lock it up. Another possibility is the additional medical exams of Correa's ankle did, in fact, uncover new details about the ankle and its ability to hold up over 10 years. That is when I would've expected the traditionally risk adverse Twins to run for the hills. Instead, they doubled down and still offered Correa the richest free agency deal in franchise history (albeit at a discounted rate but its still uncharted territory for the Twins). A 3rd possibility is Correa was simply over all of the drama. He wanted this month long negotiation to be over and to settle into his long term home with his family and still get paid a kings ransom. At TwinsFest, he said he called Boras and told him to "just get it done with the Twins." At that point, just get it done, and quickly, became the sentiment. Whatever it was, the Twins had an elite SS fall into their laps two years in a row. Any chance of a rebuild has been set aside for at least another 6 years so, for that, I am thankful. I would still love to know what changed at the last minute. Bookmark this blog and come back to it in 2027 and you may have your answer.

The baseball world experienced a blockbuster on Tuesday night when it was announced that the Red Sox were moving OF Mookie Betts, P David Price and cash to the Dodgers. It has long been assumed that OF prospect Alex Verdugo would be a part of the return. But what else was Boston getting? And then in jumped the #MysteryTeam.If you haven’t had a lot of experience with the mystery team, it’s because the Twins - as long back as I can recall - have never turned out to be that team. But Doogie Wolfson was all over it. Not too much later, it was confirmed the Twins were sending pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to the Red Sox. In return, they were getting P Kenta Maeda. Adding Maeda is a big deal on the field, but let’s look at three unique things off the field. ***Maeda signed an 8-year, $25 million deal with the Dodgers before the 2016 season. He has four years, at $3 million per year left on his incentive-laden contract. His incentives include: $150,000 for making Opening Day roster $1 million for starts 15 and 20. $1.5 million for starts 25, 30 and 32. $250,000 reaching the innings of 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180 and 190. $750,000 if he throws 200 innings. ***The fact that so much of Maeda’s earnings are tied to starts and innings has been a contentious point recently. The Dodgers tried to rework his deal, which he declined. The message to him was to “pitch better.” Maeda is definitely going to begin the season in the starting rotation, but someone is going to get squeezed if everyone is healthy when Michael Pineda and Rich Hill return from suspension and injury, respectively. We already know how Maeda would feel if it’s him. ***Maeda has some interesting “perks” in his deal which raise additional questions. His original contract gave him the right to wear #18. That’s currently worn by Silver Slugger catcher Mitch Garver. The Dodgers had to provide Maeda with four round-trip business-class airline tickets between Japan and LA annually. Can he fly out of MSP? There’s a $1 million assignment bonus. Do the Twins pay that? Allegedly. --- What we do know is that even if Maeda only has an average (by his standards) year, he will make nearly 30 starts and throw around 170 innings, triggering incentives that will earn him nearly $10 million total, which is still a steal in this market for a mid-rotation starter. All of the other stuff, though… stay tuned... Click here to view the article

Two 30-year-old natives of Venezuela, both switch-hitters, both came to the majors as shortstops who became utility players and were to become free agents at the end of the 2018 season. I was looking at Baseball Reference and thought I would compare the former Twin with the current Twin. I was surprised how similar their numbers were. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzama01.shtml While they are very similar, there are differences. First of all, Gonzalez has remained a versatile defender, while Escobar has become a fixture at third base for his new club. Neither are spending appreciable time in the middle of the diamond, this year Escobar has played one game at second base and Gonzalez has played one game at shortstop. Gonzalez has started mostly at third, but with the return of Miguel Sanó, he's started multiple games at first, third, left and right field. Escobar has truly come into his own as a hitter. He hits in the middle of a good Arizona lineup and leads the National League in games, plate appearances and at-bats. So far, he is putting up numbers worthy of All-Star consideration. After an extremely slow start, Gonzalez has put up numbers in line with his career norms. It is intriguing to consider what might have happened if the Twins had somehow managed to retain Escobar. Would he have been able to have the role that Gonzalez is filling? Would the Twins then converted Sanó to first base and not acquired Cron? For what it's worth, it appears that this has worked out for all concerned.

Ricky Nolasco signed easily the largest free agent contract for the Twins last year. While not every Twins fan was happy, the consensus was that the Twins had opened their wallets wide to get a guy that would guarantee them innings and competitive starts. In other words, while Nolasco's ceiling wasn't thought to be that high, his floor was thought to be competence or better than that. For one season, at least, the Twins were totally wrong. They didn't get middle-of-the-rotation production from him. They didn't get bottom of the rotation production. Mostly, the team got very poor performance for what is agreed to be a lot of money. What went wrong? There are some things numbers that tell the tale. First of all, Nolasco has always given up a lot of hits and hasn't been very good at stranding runners. The naysayers of the contract pointed that out from the beginning. Secondly, Nolasco had spent all his career in the National League, without a DH, thought to be easier for pitchers to put up good numbers. The last two factors may or may not be supported by numbers--Nolasco pitched with forearm tightness from spring training until he was disabled in early July. He pitched to an awful 5.90 ERA prior to going on the DL, post All-Star game yielded a more representative 4.39 ERA. Finally, Nolasco posted a 4.30 FIP, indicating that he suffered from bad luck and bad defense. In watching most of his starts, I would submit that Nolasco didn't get much help behind him and that he suffered from a bunch of bloop hits and some bad hops. I also saw a lot of hard-hit balls with quite a few reaching the seats. What does the future hold? First of all, while the first year was a disaster, Nolasco's body of work suggests he'll bounce back. He's been pretty dependable and reliable for a long time. No, he won't be traded in a salary dump and I sincerely doubt that he'll be exchanged for another "bad" contract. He'll get a chance to come back for the Twins. Secondly, I don't see him in the top of Twins rotation next year or for the duration of his contract. The Twins signed him 10 days short of his 31st birthday, it is doubtful he'll every perform better than he has in his better years ('10, '12 and '13) and not close to his best year in '08. In looking at Ricky's season, I would classify eight starts as "good" or better, six as "meh" to average, and the remainder (13) to qualify as poor. Certainly not good enough, but there were some decent outings. How much was health related? An open question. I think Nolasco has learned a bit about what he has to do to succeed and might minimize those poor starts. He showed a pretty good breaking ball, to go with an okay fastball but he needs to mix his pitches effectively. Finally, the Twins need to improve their defense. Better defensive outfielders would probably disproportionately benefit the veteran hurler. Better defense, better luck and better health will most likely lead to better results. I doubt he ever is regarded as a good signing, but I also doubt he'll be viewed as a total failure going forward. The Twins should have expected better for over $12M per year, I think they'll get closer to it for the rest of his contract. But much like Joe Mauer, people will expect more than he'll produce.