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On Tuesday night, Bartolo Colon will take the mound at Target Field for his first start in a large Minnesota Twins uniform. If you’re like me, one of the first things that you thought about when you heard that the Twins signed the 44-year-old right-hander last week was the 2005 American League Cy Young Award. As you recall, Colon won that award because he went 21-8 for the Angels. He was the only 20-game winner in the league that year. As Twins fans, we thought that Johan Santana was robbed. Yes, Moneyball had already been out for a few years, so we knew that there was much more to illustrating how well a pitcher throws than the almighty pitcher Win.With Colon joining the Twins and making a start tonight, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at that 2005 American League Cy Young vote through the lens of what we now know. Was Johan still robbed? Of course he was robbed, we’re Twins fans. He absolutely deserved to win it. Santana won the AL Cy Young Award in 2004, and then he again won it in 2006. However, we’ll still contend that he should have won three in a row. The Vote I always find it interesting that we think that Johan Santana was robbed. However, we forget that Santana didn’t even finish runner-up in the 2005 American League Cy Young voting. Yankees closer Mariano Rivera finished second in the vote. Bartolo Colon actually won the vote quite handily. He accumulated 118 points. Mariano Rivera had 68 points, and Johan Santana had 51 points. Colon received 17 of a possible 28 first-place votes. Rivera got eight first-place votes with Santana tallying the other three. The Numbers Let’s start with the obvious, the statistics. First and foremost, it is important to acknowledge that all three of these pitchers had tremendous 2005 seasons. I don’t think anyone would or should say anything differently. At the same time, it’s impossible to look at the numbers and not think that Santana was the obvious choice. Here are some key statistics for your consideration: W-L Record: Colon 21-8; Santana 16-7, Rivera 7-4 (with 43 saves)Innings Pitched: Santana 231.2, Colon 222.2, Rivera 78.1ERA: Rivera 1.38, Santana 2.87, Colon 3.48WHIP: Rivera 0.87, Santana 0.97, Colon 1.16.FIP: Rivera 2.15, Santana 2.80, Colon 3.75K/9: Santana 9.2, Rivera 9.2, Colon 6.3BB/9: Santana 1.7, Colon 1.7, Rivera 2.1bWAR: Santana 7.2, Colon 4.0, Rivera 4.0.fWAR: Santana 7.1, Colon 4.1, Rivera 2.9WPA: Santana 4.16, Rivera 3.15, Colon 2.77So what does this tell us? Well, that depends on how much you value a closer. Rivera was totally dominant, as he was for most of his Hall of Fame career. But he threw just 78.1 innings compared to over 220 innings for Colon and Santana. But Rivera was the one that most nationally (and particularly in New York) thought was snubbed. In fact, when asked, Colon thought Rivera had a good chance to win. “"Mariano had a great year," Colon said, thanking Rivera for teaching him how to throw his cut fastball. "I did think about the fact that maybe he was going to come away and be the winner."” However, if you were to compare just the starting pitchers, there really is no comparison. The only area where Colon had a better number was the wins category. We don’t need to go through the whole discussion about how meaningless that number is. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) had Santana clearly better. Why? Because Santana struck out 50% more batters than Colon. You can make an argument about a strikeout pitcher needing more pitches. In an ESPN article back then, “If I can get an out with one or two pitches and use my sinker or my cutter, I'm better off," Colon said through a translator. "I stopped being a village boy, thinking that I can throw any stone, any rock through a wall, and started thinking about being a guy that could last longer, to take some off my fastball and not to depend only on throwing hard.” Well, that may be fine, but in the same number of starts, Santana threw more innings. He gave up fewer runs, walked the same low number, and Santana had a WHIP under 1.00, which is crazy good for a starter. So whether you look at the more traditional stats like ERA and WHIP and K/9, Santana was clearly better. If you look at the more advanced stats like FIP, WAR (wins above replacement) or even WPA (win probability added). If wins are your stat of choice for a pitcher, well, then Colon was the rightful winner. In a New York Times article discussing the 2005 vote, Akron Beacon writer Sheldon Ocker acknowledged that he put Rivera and other relievers into the MVP candidates more than the Cy Young because they are used more often but for a lot less innings. His comment regarding why his ballot went 1.) Bartolo Colon, 2.) Cliff Lee, 3.) Mark Buehrle illustrates the thinking of the writers who voted for these awards just a dozen years ago. “It's just a whole different animal from starting pitchers," he added. "If the best starting pitcher in the league only won 15 games and Mariano Rivera or someone else saved 45, I'd vote for Rivera. But in a season with a 20-game winner and an 18-game winner, I felt the starters should get my vote.” Wins. Wins… That’s a pretty direct indictment on how Bartolo Colon won that award over Johan Santana. How Egregious? While obviously Twins fans are a bit biased, it’s fun to check out a couple of national sites and blogs and get some other opinions. Bleacher Report posted an article in which they determined the 10 most undeserving Cy Young Award winners. Bartolo Colon came in at #6. “The more deserving candidate was Johan Santana, who went 16-7, with an ERA of 2.87 and led the league in WAR and ERA-plus with a 6.3 and a 155 respectively. Santana also struck out the most batters by a wide margin and had a ridiculous .97 WHIP.” Seamheads posted and article called the Most Egregious Cy Young Snubs. Colon/Santana was only mentioned in saying that if they had listed 11 instead of 10, they would have made the list. So while most thought that Santana should have won it, statistics tell us that the voters got it wrong on several occasions. Stark Summary Shortly after Colon was awarded the 2005 AL Cy Young, ESPN’s Jayson Stark wrote an article highlighting why Santana, not Colon, deserved to win the award. Here are a few excerpts from the article: Colon finished strong, going 10-2 in his last 14 starts “for a team that needed every one of his wins to hold off Oakland.”Colon was helped out by his bullpen which blew zero saves for him.Indians hitters averaged 6.02 runs per game when Colon started.“Santana piled up 81 more strikeouts, beat Colon in ERA by 61 points, allowed almost two fewer base runners for every nine innings, and had more innings pitched, complete games and shutouts.”“Hitters who faced Colon had a batting average of .254 against him. The on-base percentage against Santana was .250.”“Colon got a ridiculous 1.32 more runs per game than Santana did. And Santana’s totals in his last three no-decisions tell it all: 23 innings, 9 hits, 3 runs, 0 wins.”“But the history of the award tells us that no starting pitcher has won just 16 games over a full season and won a Cy Young.”Of course, that has changed some since 2005. In 2009, Zack Greinke (16) and Tim Lincecum (15) were the two Cy Young winners. In 2010, Felix Hernandez won the AL award with a 13-12 record. In 2013, Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young with 16 wins. So while there are more ways to determine and vote for Best Pitcher, it will continue to be dependent upon the 15 BBWAA writers from each league that cast their vote. I don’t think anyone is going to expect Bartolo Colon to come to Target Field today and hand over that 2005 Cy Young Award. And frankly, there’s no reason to bring it up. Instead, let’s cheer on Colon and hope beyond hope that he can be a solid contributor to the Twins for the rest of the season. Or, he’ll be so bad that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have an easy decision to let him go in the next few weeks. If nothing else, it’ll be fun to watch the oldest pitcher to make a start for the Twins in their 57 seasons in Minnesota. Click here to view the article

Since Derek Falvey has taken the reins in his new job as Minnesota Twins Chief Baseball Operator, he has been asked many questions from local media and fans. As you would expect coming off a 100+ loss season, he’s been asked about his pitching philosophy and on player development. He has been consistent in his responses, as he should be. When asked about pitching, he talks about finding it in any way possible, through the draft, player development, free agency and other means. When talking about player development and players struggling early in their careers, he discusses the need for patience. He talked about how it’s not at all unusual for players to come up and struggle for a while before figuring it out. Jose Berrios came up through the Twins minor league system and dominated in the lower levels and in the upper levels. Finally given an opportunity to pitch in the big leagues in 2016, he struggled mightily. Some fans chose to question if he really was a prospect. Some questioned if the Twins were capable of developing a front line starter. A few even chose to give up on the idea of Berrios as a big league starter.Through his years with Cleveland, Derek Falvey was able to witness one of the best examples out there of why being patient, particularly with pitchers with great stuff, can be very important. At the 2009 July trade deadline, Cleveland dealt veteran lefty Cliff Lee to the Phillies in exchange for four players including Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco was originally signed by the Phillies in November of 2003 out of Venezuela. He gradually worked his way up. Before 2007, Baseball America ranked him the #41 prospect in baseball. Before 2008, he was ranked 54th. Before the 2009 season, he was ranked #52 by Baseball America. He was a consensus Top 100 pitching prospect. He was named to the Futures Game in 2006, 2007 and 2008. In short, the pre-MLB prospect status of Carlos Carrasco was very similar to that of Berrios. Like Berrios, Carrasco struggled in his first big league showing. He was called up by Cleveland in September and went 0-4 with an 8.87 ERA in five starts. In 22.1 innings he walked 11, struck out just 11 and gave up six home runs. He was 22 years old. He spent most of the next season back in AAA. He did make seven starts for Cleveland and performed admirably, going 2-2 with a 3.83 ERA in seven starts. He made 21 starts in 2011 and went 8-9 with an ERA of 4.62. In late July, after giving up a home run, he gave up another home run. The next batter, Billy Butler, had a Carrasco pitch sail over his head. Carrasco was immediately ejected. While appealing his suspension, he made one more start, a quality start against Boston. He didn’t pitch the rest of the season. Not because of a suspension. That had to wait. In September, Carrasco had Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2012 season. His 2013 season began with his suspension. In his first start back, he hit Kevin Youklis, earning another suspension. By July, he had given up 29 earned runs in 28.1 innings. Cleveland decided to DFA him, removing him from the 40-man roster and optioned him to AAA. He began the 2014 season by making four starts for Cleveland. He was 0-3 with a 6.95 ERA. Out of options, he went to the bullpen where he began to pitching very well. Well enough, in fact, that he ended the season by making two starts. Overall on the season, his ERA was 2.55. That earned him a four year, $22 million deal with two options years. In 2015, he was 14-12 with a 3.53 ERA. In 2016, he was 11-8 with a 3.32 ERA before a liner up the middle broke a bone his in hand and he missed the World Series run. Of course, we don’t want to wait four or five years for Berrios or other pitching prospects to take off in their careers. But it is a great reminder that pitching in the big leagues is not easy, and even some al-star caliber pitchers took a long time to reach that level. Patience, they say, is a virtue. Derek Falvey is going to need it. Thad Levine is going to need it. Twins fans will also need it. Click here to view the article

For the first time in 5 years the Twins are buyers at the deadline, and with the Mariners in town and the Twitter fanbase on fire, I thought it would be fun to to look back at the last big Twins trade that never happened and imagine what it would be like if the Twins had acquired Cliff Lee from the Mariners 5 years ago. Note: this is a work of fiction, not a genuine attempt at analyzing impacts...I'm not that smart, I'm just a weird guy who likes Alternate History 7/9/2010 When the Rangers refuse to part with Justin Smoak, the Twins acquire Cliff Lee for Wilson Ramos, Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson and Anthony Slama. Minnesota fans rejoice so much that no one notices that Justin Morneau remains sidelined after a collision in Toronto 7/31/2010 Without any more trade chips, the Twins go without a proven closer, despite tempting overtures about emerging Nats closer Matt Capps, trusting John Rauch to save the day, or failing that...Cliff Lee on his off days 9/21/2010 The Twins clinch the AL Central with 12 games to spare, allowing manager Ron Gardenhire to set up his rotation for a matchup with either the Yankees or Rays in the first round. "Cliffy has done real good up here...so he might just be our game 1 starter" says Gardy. "Doi!!!" say Twins fans. 10/12/2010 The Twins finally break their Yankee he'd after Cliff Lee wins Game 5 at Target Field with a 1 run shutout. Says Lee, "it was a bit rough (with the bullpen nearly blowing Liriano's game 2 lead) but we got there in the end, good thing Glen (Perkins) came in in the 8th, you know...he could make a good set up man." 10/20/2010 Backed by the home run power of Jim Thome, Delmon Young and Danny Valencia, the Twins need only 5 games to beat the Rangers in Arlington and advance to the World Series against the Giants. Asked if he's worried about Cliff Lee's workload, manager Rob Gardenhire replies, "work what now?" 11/1/2010 Twins lose the World Series to the Giants in 5 games, but remain upbeat. "Obviously we would rather have the trophy, but we'll back and loaded next year, that's for sure" pledges Lee. http://www.milb.com/images/2010/11/02/rT6JCk7F.jpg Still stings, doesn't it Twins fans? 12/14/10 Cliff Lee jilts Minnesota to re-sign with the Philadelphia Phillies. "I never wanted to leave in the first place," says Lee, "obviously it was nice to help Minnesota, but Philadelphia is where my heart lies." Undeterred, General Manager Bill Smith seeks to lock down the squad that brought Minnesota their first AL Pennant in nearly 20 years giving extensions to JJ Hardy (through 2014), Delmon Young (through 2015), and Francisco Liriano (through 2014) and re-signs Jim Thome. 2/15/11 Spring training for the AL champs starts with high hopes as Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan return as do new Twins Carl Pavano (who had a fine second half with the Texas Rangers) and intriguing Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka who Bill Smith hopes could push Alexi Casilla at second base ("he might even be able to spell JJ at short stop" gushes Smith who is eager to offset the loss of fan favorite Nick Punto ) 4/7/11 http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/PJ-BA334_SP_COU_D_20110412174226.jpg Shame we lost Hardy on this take out slide Disaster strikes as Nick Swisher slides into second base breaking JJ Hardy's fibula. Manager Ron Gardenhire quickly installs Tsuyoshi Nishioka as the new starting shortstop. A quick RBI triple and lunging grab to his left causes the fan base to erupt with joy as the Twins take a series in Yankee stadium. One fan goes so far as to get a "Nishioka Forever" tattoo. 8/15/11 The Twins have the highlight of their year when Jim Thome hits his 500th Home Run. It's Thome's last before he returns to Cleveland for one final playoff run with his first team. Meanwhile the double play combination of Hardy and Nishioka (or Thunder and Lightning as fans have taken to calling them) offer a ray of hope to compensate for the regression of Danny Valencia and Delmon Young (despite peripheral stats that suggest Nishioka isn't quite as good as his rookie year attests). The team finishes with a 69-93 record, which will give them the fourth pick in the 2012 draft, their highest in a decade. 12/14/11 With a lot of money tied up in other extensions the Twins face a difficult decision between keeping beloved reliever Joe Nathan, former top prospect Jason Kubel, or right fielder Michael Cuddyer who had paced the offense while Morneau and Mauer worked to make a come back. Citing the need for a "proven closer" the Twins resign Nathan (for 3 years), and Kubel (for 2 years). "This year was an anomaly," says Smith who was given a full vote of confidence by ownership, "I don't expect us to have a year like that again, and I'm sure the players don't either." 4/16/12 Hours after a drunken Delmon Young's anti-semitic tirade in New York and subsequent suspension ("We won't tolerate that" says Jim Pohlad), call-up Ben Revere stuns the crowd with a great leaping catch in left field. Fans who hope a return to the Bronx will remind a struggling Nishioka of his strong April are disappointed when he airmails two throws into the Yankees dugout. Rochester infielder Brian Dozier packs his bags. 8/5/12 http://www.gatorzone.com/gallery/photos/1488/Zunino-MikeTh1.jpg With the #4 Pick in the MLB Draft the Twins select Mike Zunino thereby solving all catching problems ever... The Twins end their connection with ALCS hero Danny Valencia by trading him through waivers to the Red Sox. "It's part of the game," explained Manager Ron Gardenhire, "Danny gave us a lot over two years ago, I'm sure he'll give his best in Boston." Some fans, frustrated with the inconsistency of Francisco Liriano, had hoped that the former ace in the making and the big third baseman could bring in significant pitching prospects are left wanting. But many have now turned their attention to the Twins top draft choice: Florida Catcher Mike Zunino ("hey, look at what happened the last time they took a catcher in the top 5...maybe this one won't even get bilateral leg weakness!") 10/1/2012 The Twins finish their season of struggle sliding to 67-95 11/29/2012 Citing their "complete confidence" in Ben Revere the Twins trade Denard Span to the Nationals for Vance Worley and Trevor May. Revere's diving catches and ear-to-ear smile become the face of the Twins. 12/6/2012 The Twins shockingly trade their second outfielder in a week, when the Tigers offer the Twins a random relief prospect to take Delmon Young off our hands, who they think is just the veteran bat they need to finally win the World Series. "THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU" shout Twins fans. A small group of fans chant the same words at Tsyuoshi Nishioka's Air Japan flight back home at the completion of his contract. 2/1/2013 GM Bill Smith gushes about the team's newly revamped pitching staff: "We know that Perkins, Burton and Nathan can do what we need at the end of the game, but we needed pitchers who could get the leads there. I think we have a very deep rotation, Scott [Diamond] took a big step forward, we know what Francisco [Liriano] is capable of, and now with veteran arms like Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfry we have what we need to compete." http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/2aad3909bb83cd54eafb1059d6d86e03c9075a67/c=218-0-3553-2507&r=x404&c=534x401/local/-/media/KARE/KARE/2013/12/13//1386987753001-USATSI-7414621.jpg Still hurts to see a Twins legend in rival colors. 7/31/2013 For the first time in over a decade the Twins are never close to contention, due in large part to complete implosions in the starting rotation. The team decides to sell off many of their veteran assets at the trade deadline: Morneau and Liriano head to the Pirates, JJ Hardy goes to the Diamondbacks, Jason Kubel goes to the Cleveland Indians on a short rental. "I guess we're really rebuilding," writes one Twins Daily blogger, "good thing Mauer's locked in at Catcher." 8/19/13 Joe Mauer sustains a concussion during a make up game against the New York Mets that spells the end of his catching career, and top prospect Mike Zunino struggles a bit when called up to split time with Drew Butera as his replacement. The only shocking silver linings in another disappointing season (66 - 96) are the sudden burst of power from second baseman Brian Dozier, says team closer Joe Nathan, "he's the real deal." 11/11/13 Bill Smith steps down as General Manager admitting, "yeah...I can't believe I lasted this long either," the Twins take the unusual step of inviting back former GM Terry Ryan to replace him. "It's time to turn the page and build from within," says Ryan before looking at a farm system that boasts Miguel Sano, Mike Zunino, Second Baseman Eddie Rosario, and not much else. "Well, crap..." says Ryan afterwards. 12/6/13 The Twins welcome new starting pitchers, Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes at a press conference. On the emerging slew of podcasts, one Twins follower says: "Obviously we'd like to have our own pitchers come up through the minors, but besides [Trevor] May at Double A, our best options are the kid we got for not resigning Cuddyer [berrios], and Kohl Stewart. So they're all a ways away." http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Kansas+City+Royals+v+Minnesota+Twins+W-XTGrdhlb1l.jpg 3/22/14 With uncertainty around the aging familiar stars and the unknown new signings, The Twins turn to young talent to highlight their ad campaign, "Bringing Smiles back to Twins Territory". The ads mostly consist of Ben Revere and Brian Dozier smiling brightly at the camera saying, "please come back...please...? You're a very attractive person...I'd like to see you at the ballpark...Please?" 7/15/14 While some stat heads argue that Twins Closer Joe Nathan had been outperformed by set up man Glen Perkins, Nathan is the one player chosen to represent the Twins at their home town all star game. Though he loads the bases, he does deliver a final strike out to lone Rangers representative Kurt Suzuki. "God, he'd be better than Butera and Zunino" carps one Twins fan. 9/25/14 The Twins near the end of their 4th straight 90 loss season despite an all-time record Strike out to walk ratio for new starter Phil Hughes. In their final home game the team stages a moving tribute to Joe Nathan, who, after giving up the closer spot in September to Glen Perkins, gets one last 9th inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks. After the game Nathan says "wait...why didn't I get the Mariano Rivera farewell tour?...screw it! I'm coming back next year!" 12/3/14 Torii Hunter joins the Twins for one final season despite the offer to complete a new soul patrol in Seattle with Aaron Hicks and top prospect Byron Buxton. 4/3/15 New signee Ervin Santana is suspended for 80 games for testing positive for a performance enhancing drug. Rookie Trevor May is added to the rotation behind Mike Pelfry. "Would have been nice to see a little competition for that spot," says Terry Ryan, "but we like the guys we have." http://isportsweb.com/wp-content/uploads//2015/07/Kevin-Jepsen-Texas-Rangers-v-Tampa-Bay-Rays-nJIc-NJABQNl.jpg The Newest Twin... 7/31/15 At the trade deadline the surprisingly contending Twins seem in desperate need of a shortstop (as no one has compared to Hardy and Nishioka), catcher (to replace Butera as the struggling Zunino goes back to AAA) and in the bullpen. Terry Ryan delivers only Tampa Bay Reliever Kevin Jepsen to complement Glen Perkins setting up for Joe Nathan, at the cost of starter prospect Chih Wei Hui. Fans demand a more meaningful move, like the one that got them Cliff Lee 5 years ago.