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You didn’t really think it was going to be that easy, did you? Early on in the season, the Twins sat comfortably atop the division, and it looked like they were primed to run away with the lead. In late May, the Twins led the AL Central by as many as 5.5 games over the Chicago White Sox and 7.0 games over the Cleveland Guardians. But that was many Dollar Dog Nights ago, and there was almost a whole season’s worth of baseball left. Though the Twins have mostly continued to sit atop the AL Central standings, after some injuries and a few tough series, culminating with an ugly “blowup series” vs the White Sox right before the All-Star Break, the Twins now have a 1.5-game lead over the Guardians and a 3.5-game lead over the White Sox. For the first time in years, the AL Central has a bona fide three-team division race on its hands at the All-Star Break. Even further, currently, the AL Central features the closest division race in baseball by far; there are no other divisions that, as of now, feature a viable three-team race. In three other divisions, the second place team trails by double digits. To get an idea of just how competitive this year's division is, I dug into the AL Central division's standings, working backwards until I found another season that featured a similarly-competitive race at the halfway point. At the 2021 All-Star Break, the White Sox were atop the division, followed by Cleveland at 8.0 games back, and the Tigers and Twins were tied for 3rd in the division at 15 games back, (but no need to speak any more of the 2021 Twins). 2020 was the 60-game season with no All Star Break, and over the course of such a short season, it was difficult for teams across the league to get far apart in the division standings, even at the year's end. At the 2019 All Star Break, the Twins led the division, followed by Cleveland 5.5 games back, then the White Sox at 12.5 games back. In 2018, Cleveland led, followed by the Twins and Tigers at 7.5 and 12.5 games respectively. Finally, a close AL Central race can be found in 2017, where Cleveland was on top, followed by the Twins 1.5 games back, the Royals at 3.0, and the Tigers at 6.0. A four-horse race! This season, could the Twins (God forbid), White Sox or Guardians fade and finish the season 12 games back? Certainly; year-end standings often feature two division teams within a few games of each other but very rarely are there three teams that finish within a few games (last year in 2021, there no were such instances of this). But for now, in the AL Central, all three of these top teams remain very much alive. Perhaps the most entertaining AL Central storyline to follow so far has been the saga of the White Sox. White Sox fans have gone from proclaiming that the “season’s over” in June and chanting “Fire Tony” at games to experiencing a rebirth of sorts. They are now nipping at the Twins and Guardians' heels, much to the relief of their fans, who entered this season with high expectations following a 2021 season in which the White Sox won the division with their most wins as a franchise since 2005. For now, the on-field errors have become less numerous and the Tony La Russa criticism has quieted. You know the old adage of "winning solves everything?" Tigers and Royals, well, we know how being in your position feels; both teams have steadily been about 12 games back of the division lead almost the whole season. If nothing else, they are consistent. We’ll see you next year. But for the rest of the teams, it should be a fun second half of the season. As much as I, a Twins fan, would love to see the Twins run away with the division, until then it is fun to watch a competitive race and to "scoreboard watch" what the Guardians and White Sox are doing every night. Buckle up, here we go! View full article

Wow – the combined AL/NL Central division had 7 teams in the 16 team post season mix. That must be a great division so we can take great pride in all our wins, right? Maybe not. Let us look at the division record for the first round. This is for those of you who have decided not to watch any more baseball until spring. The game does go on even if the Twins do not. And if you did see other series you would see something that we missed in the Twins series, besides relief pitching, batting, and fielding. We missed fire - the Kirby Puckett type of jump on my back fire or the Jack Morris I am not coming out of the game fire. Central division seven teams: Chicago Cubs 0 - 2 Chicago White Sox 1 - 2 Minnesota Twins 0 - 2 The bombas scored 2 runs in two games Cincinnati Reds 0 – 2 - They did not score once in 22 innings and had 28 Ks Cleveland Indians 0 – 2 St Louis 1 – 2 Milwaukee 0 – 2 Total 2 - 14 Derrick Falvey - “When you get to the playoffs, every inning matters in a different way. It’s so much more stressful in those moments, because you’re worried inning to inning about what’s going to happen next … You get a little more fixated on the detail of it.” The Eastern Division has five teams Tampa Bay 2 – 0 New York Yankees 2 – 0 Toronto Blue Jays 0 – 2 (and they played Tampa Bay in their own division) Atlanta 2 – 0 Marlins 2 – 0 Yes that was Brandon Kintzler closing out for the Marlins Total 8 - 2 "THEY’D LOST SEVEN STRAIGHT POTENTIAL CLINCHERS! The hardest part of going all those years without winning a series is that the Braves could have won so many of them. They played seven postseason games in that time that could have clinched five different series — and lost all seven. That’s the longest losing streak in potential clinchers by any NL team in history — and the second-longest in baseball history." Jason Stark. Western Division has only 4 teams - must be the weak division (right?) Oakland A’s 2 - 1 Liam Hendriks threw 49 pitches on Wednesday, then saved their clincher Thursday.https://www.mlb.com/video/liam-hendriks-k-s-mazara?t=clinches-and-celebrations San Diego 2 – 1 Los Angeles 2 – 0 Brusdar Graterol gets Ben Gamel to fly out to secure the 3-0 victory https://www.mlb.com/video/brusdar-graterol-earns-the-save?t=clinches-and-celebrations Houston 2 – 0 Total 8 - 2 The Central has had 4 two and out, the East has one (because that team had to play within its own division and the West has zero. "As the sixth inning arrived Thursday in Petco Park, the Padres were four innings away from getting swept by the Cardinals in the wild-card series. Then those same Padres apparently decided that getting swept was not an option. Nope. Not happening. What happened instead was incredible:" Jason Stark. Reminds me of Puckett and Morris. Sometimes you just have to say no - we are not going to lose. Of course Don Mattingly without knowing it said what Rocco needs to hear - our starters are better than anything we have in the pen. You got to trust them. https://www.mlb.com/video/don-mattingly-on-the-win?t=clinches-and-celebrations "Meanwhile in Oakland … the A’s were in the midst of one of the most mind-boggling October funks of all time. Until they outlasted the White Sox on Thursday, they’d somehow lost nine winner-take-all postseason games in a row. "They’d lost three of those games to the Yankees … and two to the Tigers … and one each to the Red Sox, Twins, Royals and Rays. It was the longest streak in baseball history." Jason Stark And despite the fact that the Twins starters are limited to five innings, Clayton Kershaw proved that is not a new league rule - "The Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw. Eight dominant innings, giving up only three hits while recording 13 strikeouts, all on breaking pitches." ESPN Wild Card Round Central - zero East - Four West - Four

The Twins host the Tigers in game four of their five game series, Rich Hill faces off against Casey Mize. This is anyone's game as the Twins are sitting Buxton and Donaldson. However, with game five tomorrow and a doubleheader against St. Louis on Tuesday, one would say resting them is warranted. The top five of the Twins lineup is deadly and it is nice to have Arraez back. This game comes down to context; baby blue jersey's, 75 degrees and sunny, and home field advantage. Detroit has lost the last three and the third by a walk-off infield hit, falling 6.5 games out of first, with a .459 winning percentage. Meanwhile, the Twins are 17-4 at home, and only a half-game out of first place. Expecting Cleveland to win with Shane Bieber pitching, and Chicago to win with Dallas Keuchal on the hill, this game is critical for the Twinkies. I believe the Twins will step up to the challenge, taking game four by a score of 5-3.

I was curious where we stand as a team - right now. Since the fast and furious signings seem to be in a lull (facetious statement). Let's put the team on the field as they are now composed and see how they stack up using their 2018 WAR and the Total Zone Fielding Runs above average and the 2019 projection - all from Baseball Reference WAR RTOT Projection Polanco SS 1.5 , -2 270/329/415 Rosario LF 3.6 -10 278/319/464 Cron 1B 2 4 253/316/455 Sano 3B -0.5 -2 239/322/452 Austin DH 0.5 236/301/446 Cave CF 1.5 -2 259/317/455 Kepler RF 2.8 16 235/317/419 Schoop 2B 1.4 1 259/302/448 Castro C 2.5 3 222/309/370 using 2017 numbers Adrianza U 0.4 -3 249/307/385 Buxton CF -0.3 3 237/297.393 Garver C 0.9 -16 254/325/407 Torreyes U 0.3 - 2 270/312/384 What do you think? 16.6 WAR total. RTOT - 16. Can we hit, can we field? I will look at the pitchers a little later. I just need to digest what these totals tell us. Our does this all hinge on Sano and Buxton like I talked about in - https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11292-%7B%3F%7D/ Do we need more or do we look forward to another year with the moves that are made? https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11289-%7B%3F%7D/

A few days ago I looked at the Twins lineup and bench and we had a total war of 16+, which is not good and our defensive metrics were not good either. So how do we stand at this point with our pitching? I am using baseball reference as my go to on each player. I am not projecting surprises rookies or trades or FA. There is nothing that makes me think I should. Starting Rotation - WAR - Projections (win-loss) ERA, Whip - someone has to win the game so they count for me. Jose Berrios 3.8 12-10, 4.02, 1.20 Kyle Gibson 3.9 10-11 4.24 1.39 Jake Odorizzi 1.5 8-8 4.18 1,28 Michael Pineda 0.6 4-4 4.37 1.30 - 2017 stats Fernando Romero 0.4 5-5 4.19 1.31 Bullpen Addison Reed 0.1 2-4 3.68 1.23 Taylor Rogers 2.2 3-3 3.46 1.17 Trevor Hildenberg -0.6 4.4 4.50 1.59 Trevor May 0.6 3.2 3.92 1.23 Gabriel Moya 0.2 3-2 4.22 1.27 Adelberto Mejia 1.0 4-4 3.87 1.35 Matt Magill 0.7 3-3 4.08 1.38 Kohl Stewart 0.6 3-3 3.84 1.30 I took Kohl as a random person from Little, DeJong, Curtiss... The WAR for our starters in 10.2 WAR for relievers is 4,8 I am sometimes confused by WAR because if I add our 16.6 batters to the starters and relievers we have 31 games won next year. I think we can ignore that. If these are our pitchers we have 64 wins and 63 losses which leaves us with 34 games from our call ups and fill ins. So lets keep going with the next pitchers on the list. Stephen Gonsalves -0.6 4-3 4.58 1.44 Zach Littell - 0.5 2-3 4.30 1.78 Chase DeJong 0.2 3-4 4.22 1.30 John Curtiss 0.0 1-2 4.34 1.31 Tyler Duffey -0.8 3-3 5.04 1.32 Aaron Slegers 0.0 3-3 4.50 1.28 That brings us to a collective 80 - 81 and someone else - maybe Astudillo Willans will pitch the deciding game on our 500 season. The WAR for this group is -1.7. So with our team as it now stands that is the summary I can extract from Baseball Reference. Do you agree or disagree? This has to fit with https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11299-%7B%3F%7D/ I wish it was a rosier picture, but this is just looking at the data as it sits right now with a team that seems committed to the status quo! I cannot find WAR for coaches.

The assessment of Twins by Twins fans tends to seek the positive. I read about the good pitching staff and other data that is meant to give hope. I decided to look at stats without trying to promote or complain about the team. It is now after the Memorial day holiday where assessments start to get past the SSS notations. So where are we? The overall position of the Twins in the American League - no divisions standings - has us in 11th place - 5 teams behind us. We are 23rd if we combine all teams. That is not good. In pitching which is our strength this year we are number 8 in the 15 team American League - I think we can safely say that is average - not great, not what we have seen the last few years, but average in ERA and batting average against and strike outs. WE ARE AVERAGE. In batting we are last in runs. 13 of 15 in HR. Number 13 in OBP, Number 14 in slugging. Remember this is out of 15 teams. In fielding we are number 7 in errors and number 6 in fielding pct - if you still follow this stat. So lets think about what these all add up to. A team that is lucky it is in the central division. A team that is better in pitching, worse in fielding and much worse in batting. If we dream of a wild card something has to change.