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Through his years with Cleveland, Derek Falvey was able to witness one of the best examples out there of why being patient, particularly with pitchers with great stuff, can be very important. At the 2009 July trade deadline, Cleveland dealt veteran lefty Cliff Lee to the Phillies in exchange for four players including Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco was originally signed by the Phillies in November of 2003 out of Venezuela. He gradually worked his way up. Before 2007, Baseball America ranked him the #41 prospect in baseball. Before 2008, he was ranked 54th. Before the 2009 season, he was ranked #52 by Baseball America. He was a consensus Top 100 pitching prospect. He was named to the Futures Game in 2006, 2007 and 2008. In short, the pre-MLB prospect status of Carlos Carrasco was very similar to that of Berrios. Like Berrios, Carrasco struggled in his first big league showing. He was called up by Cleveland in September and went 0-4 with an 8.87 ERA in five starts. In 22.1 innings he walked 11, struck out just 11 and gave up six home runs. He was 22 years old. He spent most of the next season back in AAA. He did make seven starts for Cleveland and performed admirably, going 2-2 with a 3.83 ERA in seven starts. He made 21 starts in 2011 and went 8-9 with an ERA of 4.62. In late July, after giving up a home run, he gave up another home run. The next batter, Billy Butler, had a Carrasco pitch sail over his head. Carrasco was immediately ejected. While appealing his suspension, he made one more start, a quality start against Boston. He didn’t pitch the rest of the season. Not because of a suspension. That had to wait. In September, Carrasco had Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2012 season. His 2013 season began with his suspension. In his first start back, he hit Kevin Youklis, earning another suspension. By July, he had given up 29 earned runs in 28.1 innings. Cleveland decided to DFA him, removing him from the 40-man roster and optioned him to AAA. He began the 2014 season by making four starts for Cleveland. He was 0-3 with a 6.95 ERA. Out of options, he went to the bullpen where he began to pitching very well. Well enough, in fact, that he ended the season by making two starts. Overall on the season, his ERA was 2.55. That earned him a four year, $22 million deal with two options years. In 2015, he was 14-12 with a 3.53 ERA. In 2016, he was 11-8 with a 3.32 ERA before a liner up the middle broke a bone his in hand and he missed the World Series run. Of course, we don’t want to wait four or five years for Berrios or other pitching prospects to take off in their careers. But it is a great reminder that pitching in the big leagues is not easy, and even some al-star caliber pitchers took a long time to reach that level. Patience, they say, is a virtue. Derek Falvey is going to need it. Thad Levine is going to need it. Twins fans will also need it.

So, let’s start our prediction segment with my predictions for the AL Central: American League Central Kansas City Royals Minnesota Twins Cleveland Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox The Royals are now the two-time defending AL champs and now the reigning World Series champs. They return with a very similar team. The Twins and Cleveland will compete with the Royals atop the division as well as for a Wild Card spot. The Tigers continue to do two things, spend crazy money and get older. The White Sox remain a mess and it’s likely Robin Ventura is the first manager let go in 2016, though Brad Ausmus may not be far behind. American League East Toronto Blue Jays Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays Baltimore Orioles The Blue Jays may not have the best pitching, but their lineup will flat-out outscore teams in the regular season. The rest of the division appears weak. The Red Sox should be improved with the acquisition of David Price and a defense with Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. will help. The Yankees didn’t spend in the offseason and they’re going with a few youngsters in their rotation. The Rays have Chris Archer which gives them a chance every fifth game. The Orioles do have some offense. I mean, Pedro Alvarez, and his 35 home run power, is hitting seventh. American League West Houston Astros Texas Rangers Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Seattle Mariners Oakland A’s Houston surprised many last year as their youth started paying dividends. Carlos Correa is a star in the making. But it will be another shootout in the West. In Texas. The Rangers will again be solid and Cole Hamels will be there a full year. The Angels have Mike Trout. The Mariners have Robinson Cano. The A’s are going to have to battle to compete. National League Central Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Last year, the top three teams from this division each won at least 97 games and made the playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens again. The Cubs youth is in place with some veteran additions. The Pirates outfield is spectacular and they have Liriano and Cole at the top fo their rotation. The Cardinals hope to have a full season of Adam Wainwright atop their rotation. The Reds and Brewers will compete for last, as they fully intend. National League East Washington Nationals New York Mets Miami Marlins Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta The Nationals were a disappointing team last year yet still finished over .500. With Bryce Harper and a strong pitching staff, they could take over in 2016. The Mets have the arms to compete with anyone, but we’ll see if they have enough bats. The bottom three teams are in rebuild mode, hoping for a high draft pick. National League West San Francisco Giants Los Angeles Dodgers Arizona Diamondbacks San Diego Padres Colorado Rockies The Giants-Dodgers series should again be huge in 2016. The Giants added Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, as well as Denard Span. The Dodgers have a new manager, Dave Roberts, and Kenta Maeda hopes for a clean transition from Japan. The Dodgers lost Zach Greinke to the Diamondbacks. He will team with arguably the best hitter in the National League, Paul Goldschmidt, and help fight for a playoff spot under former Twins pinch hitter Chip Hale. The Padres and Rockies will fight for last. THE PLAYOFFS American League Wild Card - Minnesota over Texas National League Wild Card - Pittsburgh over the Mets ALDS - Toronto over Minnesota, and Houston over Kansas City NLDS - Pittsburgh over Chicago, and San Francisco over the Mets ALCS - Toronto over Houston, and San Fransciso over Pittsburgh. World Series - San Francisco over Toronto The Giants continue their every-other-year World Series championship run. Next, let’s get to the individual awards for 2016. Others have made their predictions, but here are mine. American League MVP Carlos Correa, Houston Mike Trout, Los Angeles Josh Donaldson, Toronto Miguel Sano, Minnesota Mookie Betts, Boston American League Cy Young Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Marcus Stroman, Toronto Chris Archer, Tampa Bay American League Rookie of the Year Byron Buxton, Minnesota Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Byung Ho Park, Minnesota National League MVP Bryce Harper, Washington Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Kris Bryant, Chicago National League Cy Young Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Max Scherzer, Washington National League Rookie of the Year Trevor Story, Colorado Kenta Maeda, Arizona Corey Seager, Los Angeles Your Turn… how will the division playoffs and the individual awards go down in 2016. Make your picks now.