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The projections, however, are nowhere near as kind. The offense looks to be about league average, while the pitching staff...well, according to the projections released so far, the less said about the pitching staff, the better. Lest these automated soothsayers take away the hope that sustains baseball fans through the winter, there seems to be ample reason for more skepticism than usual this year regarding their estimation of the Twins’ offense. To get a sense of the challenge facing projectors, here’s what I’d pencil in right now for a typical midseason lineup. The number in parenthesis refers to the player’s career plate appearances in major league baseball. CF Byron Buxton (129 PA) 2B Brian Dozier (2374 PA) 1B Joe Mauer (6244 PA) RF Miguel Sano (335 PA) 3B Trevor Plouffe (2565 PA) DH Byung-Ho Park (0 PA) LF Eddie Rosario (474 PA) SS Eduardo Escobar (1243 PA) C John Ryan Murphy (284 PA) Dozier, Plouffe, and Mauer are all relatively easy to project. Since they’ve established the kinds of players they are, it would be more surprising to have one of them either completely fail to even approach their projected line or to completely overshoot it than it would be for all three to end 2016 having performed close to expectations. Escobar doesn’t have quite the longevity the others have, but his last two years (2014: .275/.315/.406 in 465 PA and 2015: .262/.309/.445 in 446 PA) have been so consistent, that he shouldn’t pose much of a problem. Some variation (more OBP, less slugging for example) is certainly possible. His last two months of 2015 were aberrant to be sure, but most projection systems won’t go into that level of granularity, and his year as a whole was right in line with expectations. Thanks to a long, fruitful career in Korea, Park should theoretically be projectable, especially once his past performance is re-evaluated using something like Keith Woolner’s Major League Equivalent tool. However, his season is so fraught with external variables -- things like how he adjusts to major league pitching, how the travel schedule affects him, and how quickly he acclimates to the Twins’ clubhouse culture -- that no formula could predict if he can contribute much this season or if the Twins will need to wait until next year to see Park’s characteristic power in full bloom. That leaves about half the lineup to project. Research done independently at The Hardball Times and Beyond the Box Score show that projection systems tend to struggle with rookies since most -- PECOTA being the most notable outlier -- use some variation of a weighted three-year average in their projections. The remaining five players in that projected lineup (Buxton, Sano, Rosario, and Murphy) combined for just 1222 career plate appearances, which is about as many as one player should have in two full seasons. Adding another level of complexity, Murphy’s came over the course of three seasons, which makes for three minute samples instead of one small one. Having solid minor league numbers to fall back on can help pull the projections in line, but these Twins don’t do the systems even that bit of kindness. They combined for even fewer plate appearances in Triple-A (612) than they did in the majors. Of those, 453 belong to Murphy, who hasn’t appeared in Triple-A since August of 2014, so it isn’t even as though he has a recent sample to pull from. There’s a temptation to see this as a positive: The team won’t project well, but will end up being quite good. That’s possible. It’s equally possible that the projections will be bullish and the youth movement will be a year away from hitting its stride. ZiPS already has Buxton and Sano as two of the team’s three best players, though with lines of .266/.310/.405 and .249/.337/.491 respectively, that speaks more to bearish numbers for the rest of the team than optimism about them. The Twins’ hitters are going to be better than their pitchers, this seems like the consensus view at this point in the offseason, but there just seems to be too much ambiguity to say whether they’ll be good enough to fully compensate for the pitching staff.
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His Korean team posted him, the Twins won the bidding for the exclusive rights to negotiate with him, they came to an agreement on a multi-year deal and, on Wednesday, he and the Twins’ brass spoke to the media about the whole thing. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Park-press-conference.jpg The assembled media asked a lot of good questions. How will Park adjust to facing better pitchers who throw better breaking balls and faster fastballs? How will he adjust to being a full-time designated hitter? What kind of fielder is he, in the event he needs to use his glove more frequently than is currently envisioned? How will he adjust to living and working in the United States? The media got very few good answers to those questions, however. That’s not the fault of Park, GM Terry Ryan or anyone else on that dais, really. The fact is, there are no good answers to most of the questions, yet. Park will need to answer those questions on the field, in the clubhouse and out and about in the greater Twins Territory community. Ryan told the media that he feels his team needs to add offense and that he expects Park to replace Torii Hunter’s offensive production. My goodness, I certainly hope he can do better than that. After all, while Hunter made significant critical contributions to the turnaround of the 2015 Twins, not a lot of those contributions were with his bat. If Park doesn’t exceed Hunter’s 2015 production, he may well be getting acquainted with upstate New York or south central Tennessee at some point. It sounds like expectations are measured, which is good. Everyone with the club has indicated they expect Park to struggle a little bit as he adjusts to major league pitching, but that he is also expected to successfully make those adjustments. I wonder how well those limited expectations will be remembered when the strikeouts come, especially if wins don’t come as quickly for this team as we think they should. I’m looking forward to a full season of Park and Miguel Sano in the lineup. That’s a lot of long-ball potential that wasn’t there on Opening Day, 2015. It’s also a lot of strikeout potential, of course. Ryan was asked if he expects to make more roster moves, obviously alluding to the possibility of trading incumbent third baseman Trevor Plouffe. His response seemed unequivocal, stating that he did not expect to make additional changes to the regular lineup. “We’re going to go with what we’ve got,” he said. He added, “We’re going to move Sano to the outfield.” Things change, of course. Baseball’s Winter Meetings are coming up and it’s reasonable to expect that Ryan will get some inquiries about the availability of some of his players, including Plouffe. Maybe his unambiguous statements today are just part of a posture he’s taking to send a message to his peers that they should not expect to get Plouffe (or anyone) for peanuts. But, to me, he certainly sounded and looked like a man who believes his everyday lineup is just about set in stone. The additional power is good. It’s very good. I just don’t think it’s so good that it will, by itself, push the Twins over hump and propel them into the postseason. I believe that this team also needs more hitters who can get on base and contribute some extra-base hits with regularity. For that to happen, Miguel Sano cannot afford a sophomore slump. He needs to not only continue to pepper the outfield bleachers with 400-foot home run balls, he needs to continue adding 30 or 40 doubles and get on base 38% of the time. In short, he needs to be a fixture in the cleanup spot for the Twins that strikes fear into the minds of opposing pitchers and catchers. He needs to be that guy right out of the gate in 2016. Byron Buxton also needs to arrive in 2016. And by “arrive,” I mean he needs to, as Nuke LaLoosh put it, announce his presence with authority. If Buxton and Sano take control of the leadoff and cleanup spots, respectively, on Opening Day and both show the talent they have demonstrated at every minor league level (and that Sano demonstrated in half a season with the Twins this year), it will allow the rest of the lineup to easily fall into place. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Buxton2015b-1414936-429x600.jpg Byron Buxton (Photo: S D Buhr) Mauer and Dozier become the everyday number 2 and 3 hitters. Plouffe, Park and either Rosario or Arcia (whichever claims the third outfield spot) easily slot into the 5-7 spots, while Escobar and the catcher du jour, Suzuki or Murphy, pull up the rear. In that scenario, the Twins lineup has become much “longer,” to use the buzzword currently in favor that describes a team with dangerous hitters even far down the batting order. It also allows guys like Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe and Rosario to successfully fill roles they are most suited to fill, rather than try to be something they aren't. Yes, I would have defensive concerns with any outfield that includes both Sano and Arcia in the corners. That’s a disaster waiting to happen, but I’m pretty confident that Rosario will be the winner of that battle this spring, so I’m not too concerned about it. But if Buxton can’t be Buxton at the top of that order or if Sano struggles to make consistent hard contact at cleanup, suddenly your “long” lineup isn’t really so long and you’ve got some guys hitting in spots they really aren’t best-suited for. Your leadoff hitter needs to work the count, hit for average, draw walks, find some gaps and cause all sorts of anxiety for pitchers, catchers and defenses on the basepaths. Your cleanup hitter needs to consistently drive in runs. He needs to hit home runs in bunches. He needs to be able to do more than make pitchers pay for mistakes. He needs to hit a pitcher’s best pitch for extra bases. He needs to avoid striking out so often that opposing teams don’t worry about seeing him step into the on-deck circle. If Buxton isn’t an effective leadoff man, someone else has to do that job and there is nobody currently on this roster that you could honestly say, “leadoff is his best spot.” The same is true of Sano at cleanup. Yes, Dozier could lead off. Mauer and Escobar could do it, too. But all three of those players have holes in their offensive games that make them much better suited to hit someplace other than at the top of the Twins’ order. It’s possible that Park will turn out to be a legitimate cleanup spot alternative to Sano. If so, that’s a bonus. But right now, the best the Twins show me is a few guys who could serve that role if they absolutely had to. That’s not good enough. If you have to slide Dozier and Mauer up a spot in the order and/or do the same with Plouffe and Rosario, not to mention Escobar and your catcher, suddenly that lineup doesn’t look so “long,” after all. You no longer have a lineup set up to challenge the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central Division, much less make a deep postseason run. I know that I’ve totally ignored the pitching situation and, obviously, that’s very important, too. I also am aware that the Twins will be likely be a better team with Buxton in center field every day, regardless of what he does with his bat. But for the Twins to become the team we all want them to be, they need Byron Buxton to be an All-Star level leadoff hitter, they need Sano to be a beast in the cleanup spot and they need those things to happen closer to April than September. They also need Park to quickly make whatever adjustments need to be made to allow him to be a significant contributor to a big league contender. No pressure, guys. Just become great and do it now. (This article was originally published at Knuckleballsblog.com)
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The Minnesota Twins held a press conference Wednesday morning to introduce their newest addition to the family, Korean slugger Byung Ho Park. The hope is that Park can approach the level of production he showed in Korea and, if so, join potential stars Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton as cornerstones in a Twins everyday lineup being built to contend for the postseason for years to come. By now, everyone knows how he came to be a member of the Twins.His Korean team posted him, the Twins won the bidding for the exclusive rights to negotiate with him, they came to an agreement on a multi-year deal and, on Wednesday, he and the Twins’ brass spoke to the media about the whole thing. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Park-press-conference.jpg The assembled media asked a lot of good questions. How will Park adjust to facing better pitchers who throw better breaking balls and faster fastballs? How will he adjust to being a full-time designated hitter? What kind of fielder is he, in the event he needs to use his glove more frequently than is currently envisioned? How will he adjust to living and working in the United States? The media got very few good answers to those questions, however. That’s not the fault of Park, GM Terry Ryan or anyone else on that dais, really. The fact is, there are no good answers to most of the questions, yet. Park will need to answer those questions on the field, in the clubhouse and out and about in the greater Twins Territory community. Ryan told the media that he feels his team needs to add offense and that he expects Park to replace Torii Hunter’s offensive production. My goodness, I certainly hope he can do better than that. After all, while Hunter made significant critical contributions to the turnaround of the 2015 Twins, not a lot of those contributions were with his bat. If Park doesn’t exceed Hunter’s 2015 production, he may well be getting acquainted with upstate New York or south central Tennessee at some point. It sounds like expectations are measured, which is good. Everyone with the club has indicated they expect Park to struggle a little bit as he adjusts to major league pitching, but that he is also expected to successfully make those adjustments. I wonder how well those limited expectations will be remembered when the strikeouts come, especially if wins don’t come as quickly for this team as we think they should. I’m looking forward to a full season of Park and Miguel Sano in the lineup. That’s a lot of long-ball potential that wasn’t there on Opening Day, 2015. It’s also a lot of strikeout potential, of course. Ryan was asked if he expects to make more roster moves, obviously alluding to the possibility of trading incumbent third baseman Trevor Plouffe. His response seemed unequivocal, stating that he did not expect to make additional changes to the regular lineup. “We’re going to go with what we’ve got,” he said. He added, “We’re going to move Sano to the outfield.” Things change, of course. Baseball’s Winter Meetings are coming up and it’s reasonable to expect that Ryan will get some inquiries about the availability of some of his players, including Plouffe. Maybe his unambiguous statements today are just part of a posture he’s taking to send a message to his peers that they should not expect to get Plouffe (or anyone) for peanuts. But, to me, he certainly sounded and looked like a man who believes his everyday lineup is just about set in stone. The additional power is good. It’s very good. I just don’t think it’s so good that it will, by itself, push the Twins over hump and propel them into the postseason. I believe that this team also needs more hitters who can get on base and contribute some extra-base hits with regularity. For that to happen, Miguel Sano cannot afford a sophomore slump. He needs to not only continue to pepper the outfield bleachers with 400-foot home run balls, he needs to continue adding 30 or 40 doubles and get on base 38% of the time. In short, he needs to be a fixture in the cleanup spot for the Twins that strikes fear into the minds of opposing pitchers and catchers. He needs to be that guy right out of the gate in 2016. Byron Buxton also needs to arrive in 2016. And by “arrive,” I mean he needs to, as Nuke LaLoosh put it, announce his presence with authority. If Buxton and Sano take control of the leadoff and cleanup spots, respectively, on Opening Day and both show the talent they have demonstrated at every minor league level (and that Sano demonstrated in half a season with the Twins this year), it will allow the rest of the lineup to easily fall into place. http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Buxton2015b-1414936-429x600.jpgByron Buxton (Photo: S D Buhr)Mauer and Dozier become the everyday number 2 and 3 hitters. Plouffe, Park and either Rosario or Arcia (whichever claims the third outfield spot) easily slot into the 5-7 spots, while Escobar and the catcher du jour, Suzuki or Murphy, pull up the rear. In that scenario, the Twins lineup has become much “longer,” to use the buzzword currently in favor that describes a team with dangerous hitters even far down the batting order. It also allows guys like Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe and Rosario to successfully fill roles they are most suited to fill, rather than try to be something they aren't. Yes, I would have defensive concerns with any outfield that includes both Sano and Arcia in the corners. That’s a disaster waiting to happen, but I’m pretty confident that Rosario will be the winner of that battle this spring, so I’m not too concerned about it. But if Buxton can’t be Buxton at the top of that order or if Sano struggles to make consistent hard contact at cleanup, suddenly your “long” lineup isn’t really so long and you’ve got some guys hitting in spots they really aren’t best-suited for. Your leadoff hitter needs to work the count, hit for average, draw walks, find some gaps and cause all sorts of anxiety for pitchers, catchers and defenses on the basepaths. Your cleanup hitter needs to consistently drive in runs. He needs to hit home runs in bunches. He needs to be able to do more than make pitchers pay for mistakes. He needs to hit a pitcher’s best pitch for extra bases. He needs to avoid striking out so often that opposing teams don’t worry about seeing him step into the on-deck circle. If Buxton isn’t an effective leadoff man, someone else has to do that job and there is nobody currently on this roster that you could honestly say, “leadoff is his best spot.” The same is true of Sano at cleanup. Yes, Dozier could lead off. Mauer and Escobar could do it, too. But all three of those players have holes in their offensive games that make them much better suited to hit someplace other than at the top of the Twins’ order. It’s possible that Park will turn out to be a legitimate cleanup spot alternative to Sano. If so, that’s a bonus. But right now, the best the Twins show me is a few guys who could serve that role if they absolutely had to. That’s not good enough. If you have to slide Dozier and Mauer up a spot in the order and/or do the same with Plouffe and Rosario, not to mention Escobar and your catcher, suddenly that lineup doesn’t look so “long,” after all. You no longer have a lineup set up to challenge the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central Division, much less make a deep postseason run. I know that I’ve totally ignored the pitching situation and, obviously, that’s very important, too. I also am aware that the Twins will be likely be a better team with Buxton in center field every day, regardless of what he does with his bat. But for the Twins to become the team we all want them to be, they need Byron Buxton to be an All-Star level leadoff hitter, they need Sano to be a beast in the cleanup spot and they need those things to happen closer to April than September. They also need Park to quickly make whatever adjustments need to be made to allow him to be a significant contributor to a big league contender. No pressure, guys. Just become great and do it now. (This article was originally published at Knuckleballsblog.com) Click here to view the article
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