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Keeping up with the latest mock drafts has a similar feeling to walking into the local Culver’s and checking the Flavor of the Day. Is it one you like? No? Then check back tomorrow. It might not be the one you want, but it will almost certainly be different. That’s the feeling that I continue to get as I check out the latest forecasts from the “experts”. By no means is it a rip on them. The facts are clear: No one knows who is going where. In fact, the bombshell that Keith Law dropped recently - that the Diamondbacks have settled on their guy - is something I felt was vastly underreported. Though maybe it wasn’t underreported. He basically said, “The Diamondbacks know who they are taking” and then went on to speculate who it might be… but basically has no idea.Plotting out the ways the Twins could go at #6 would be a lot of speculation, though it isn’t because it’s impossible to tell who the Twins like. It’s impossible to have any idea who may or may not go in the five spots that precede the Twins making their selection. Because of that “murkiness”, it was hard to settle on guys to profile in this series. Because of the lack of consensus in the Top 10, it made it nearly impossible to settle on guys to profile in this series. So that forced us to get creative (in a way that didn’t involve a month of profiles for you to read). The first installment in our profile series will feature three guys: Three guys we don’t expect to make it out of the Top 5. But let’s also be honest: There is great mystery surrounding those Top 5 picks, so there’s always a chance something crazy happens. One of these guys could drop, sure… but I view the chance of any of these guys dropping at less than 10% Who are these guys? Dansby Swanson, a shortstop from Vanderbilt, has “do-it-all” ability. While he’s not going to be a 20-homer guy, he’ll give you everything else you want from your shortstop. Without that power, you can’t be a five-tool guy, but Swanson has that sixth tool: genius-level baseball IQ. I’m sure Paul Molitor dreams about getting guys like this, but he’ll have to keep dreaming: there’s literally zero chance that Swanson falls out of the Top 3, let alone the Top 5. Brendan Rodgers is a prep shortstop from Florida. He’s resided at the top of draft boards since last June. He was great last summer, but was less than great this spring. And then his team got bounced early. But being good and staying healthy was enough to keep him near the top of the board. Committed to Florida State, Rodgers has gotten bigger and stronger and won’t get near Tallahassee (to go to class anyway). If you’re a non-believer, you might say Rodgers lacks the athleticism to stick at shortstop. The thing of it is, even without playing a premium defensive position, Rodgers could be a Top 5 pick if he’s a third baseman because of his bat. The Astros, who pick twice before the Twins, are said to like others more than Rodgers. And they’re unlikely to pick two shortstops. That helps his chances to fall, but the Rockies and Rangers would be crazy to pass on such a talent. The lone member of this group that could fall (and I say “could” as still less than a 10% chance) is Santa Barbara’s Dillon Tate, a right-handed pitcher. Tate gained notoriety by being the best arm in the bullpen for USA’s Collegiate National Team last summer. And now he’s starting for the Gauchos and showing the same stuff. His fastball has been up to 98 with arm-side run. His slider is high-80s and devastating. His other stuff is still “in progress”, but Neil Allen would love to teach him a change-up. If that happened, he’s a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm, that is… if his arm can handle it. He’ll throw over 100 innings this year after throwing less than 50 combined his previous two seasons. I’ll tell you this, though, if Tate’s name hasn’t been announced by the time the Astros make their pick at five, the Twins should sprint that card to the podium and party in the draft room. Why the Twins would pick them? It’s clear that these are the best players in the draft and the Twins would be elated for any of them to fall into their laps. Why the Twins would not pick them? Well, the easy answer is because they wouldn’t be able to. The more complicated question, “Why would the Twins would pass on them?” is a bit more complicated. Since the draft rules changed, the top picks are getting $6 million or more. The exceptions are Carlos Correa (who cut a deal) and Jon Gray (who had just been flagged for a failed drug test). The consensus top guys, who these three are, always got their money. Mark Appel, who was expected to go number one before falling, didn’t get his money (that year) after failing to reach an agreement with the Pirates. So there is definitely risk when you draft a guy that falls. The difference, though, is that teams are better prepared to handle the ramifications of this new draft procedure now that they’ve gone through it three times; the Pirates weren’t prepared and had they been, they would have known they weren’t going to be able to sign Appel. While there aren’t many (any?) sure things in this draft, these three fall into the “best-bets” category and the Twins would be lucky to get any one of them. Unfortunately, that just doesn’t appear to be a likely scenario. Click here to view the article