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Johan Santana and Joe Nathan were each top pitchers of their generation. Both were one-and-done on the BBWAA ballot, so who was the more significant snub? Voting for baseball’s Hall of Fame can be a challenging process for fans to understand. Some of baseball’s best players are being held out because of their steroid ties, while others with lesser resumes are inducted. Some deserving players fall off the ballot and follow a much longer path to Cooperstown. Two former Twins greats, Tony Oliva and Jim Kaat, were elected to the Hall of Fame this year through the era committee voting process. Four era committees are divided by baseball’s different eras. The Golden Days Committee elected Oliva and Kaat, and next winter, the era up for consideration is Today’s Game which covers 1988-Present. Johan Santana and Joe Nathan will get the opportunity to appear on this ballot in the years ahead. Johan Santana’s Hall of Fame Case Santana’s Cooperstown case is almost the exact opposite of newly elected Kaat. Santana was baseball’s best pitcher for multiple seasons, but his career was cut short due to injury. Kaat pitched for a long time and compiled solid numbers over a long career. He only received Cy Young votes in one season and finished a distant fourth that season. So what’s more important for a Hall of Fame case, longevity or peak value? Injuries clearly impacted the longevity of Santana’s career, but there have been other players with shortened careers to be elected to Cooperstown. Twins fans are well familiar with Kirby Puckett and the injury that forced him to retire early. When he became eligible, voters had no problem selecting him on the first ballot. According to JAWS, Puckett ranks as the 24th best center fielder, with players like Kenny Lofton, Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, and Johnny Damon ranking ahead of him. Sandy Koufax is considered one of the best starting pitchers of all time, and he compares very closely to Santana. Like Santana, Koufax pitched 12 years at the big-league level, which meant he retired before his age-31 season. According to JAWS, Koufax is the 96th best starting pitcher, and Santana is 26 places higher in the rankings. Santana also lost out on a third Cy Young that would have significantly helped his HOF candidacy. Joe Nathan’s Hall of Fame Case While Santana was out of baseball in his early 30s, Nathan didn’t become a big-league regular until his late 20s. Nathan pitched into his early 40s and established himself as one of the top-10 relievers of all time. Unfortunately, relievers are criminally underrepresented in Cooperstown, with it being the only position group to have fewer than ten elected players. According to JAWS, Nathan is the eighth-best reliever which puts him ahead of Lee Smith, Rollie Fingers, and Bruce Sutter. Billy Wagner is a prime example of a reliever similar to Nathan, that has been gaining HOF support. Wagner ranks two spots ahead of Nathan regarding JAWS, and their career numbers are very similar. Wagner was named on 51% of the ballots in his seventh year of eligibility, a jump of over 40% since his first year. Now he has three more voting cycles to gain 24% of the vote. Nathan’s career numbers put him in elite company. Among pitchers with at least 900 innings pitched, only Billy Wagner and Nolan Ryan have a lower Hits per Nine Innings ratio. He topped the 30-save mark in nine seasons, including accumulating 40 or more saves in four seasons. Even as a reliever, he had multiple top-five finishes in the AL Cy Young Award Voting. Also, Nathan ranks in the top-7 all-time relief pitchers using a hybrid average of WAR, WPA, and situational or context-neutral wins (WPA/LI). Nathan was clearly one of the best relievers in baseball history. Santana was baseball’s best starting pitcher for multiple seasons. Their Hall of Fame cases are complicated, but they both deserve to be more than one-and-done on the ballot. Who do you think was the bigger, more significant HOF snub? Will either player be elected to the Hall? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article

Last summer, the Twins organization elected Joe Nathan to the Twins Hall of Fame, a well-deserved honor for the former All-Star closer. Nathan was tremendous during his time in a Twins uniform and his eyes should be set on an even more prestigious Hall of Fame, the one located in Cooperstown, NY. Hall of Fame players are not one-size fits all and, for many, the path to the Hall includes excellence over a long period of time. Joe Nathan’s play over the last decade is certainly going to warrant some consideration for the Hall, but there could be some obstacles awaiting him on his path to enshrinement. Much like current Twin Nelson Cruz, Nathan didn’t become a big league regular until late into his 20s. Minnesota traded for him in one of the best trades in franchise history and he immediately became one of the best closers in the game. Unfortunately for Nathan, relief pitchers are underrepresented in the Cooperstown’s hallowed halls. The current HOF relievers are Dennis Eckersley, Mariano Rivera, Hoyt Wilhelm, Rich Gossage, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, Trevor Hoffman, and Rollie Fingers. Currently, Billy Wagner has been slowly gaining traction on the HOF ballot. In his fifth year of eligibility, his named was penciled in on 31.7% of the writer’s ballots. This was up 25% from the 2019 ballot where he finished with 16.7% of the vote. Back in 2017, his first year on the ballot, he was only on 10.5% of the ballots. FanGraphs Jay Jaffe named Wagner and Nathan as the two best relief pitchers outside the Hall. Both Wagner and Nathan are within 1.0 WAR of each other, but Nathan has 1.5 more WPA. While these players put up strong numbers in their era, however, each falls sort of the HOF average for WAR (39.1). Rivera and Eckersley shift the WAR average significantly as they averaged over 59 WAR between the two of them alone. One way to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness is Jaffe’s scoring system known as JAWS. According to Baseball Reference, a player’s JAWS is their career WAR averaged with their 7-year peak WAR. To examine Nathan, one must compare him to the other relievers already elected to the Hall. JAWS has Nathan ranked closely to other Hall of Fame relievers. Smith and Sutter rank just above him and Hoffman is two spots behind him with Wagner being between Nathan and Hoffman. Overall, Jaffe places Wagner and Nathan in his top-7 overall relief pitchers through his hybrid average of WAR, WPA, and situational or context-neutral wins (WPA/LI). If Wagner can garner enough support to be elected, Nathan should have the opportunity as well. Nathan has other statistics that could help his Cooperstown case. Even with his late debut, he was able to pitch into his early 40’s. Along the way, he was elected to six All-Star teams, finished in the top-5 of Cy Young voting twice, struck out more than a batter per inning and he finished in the top-5 in saves five times. Overall, he’s eighth in career saves and he had five seasons with a 1.88 ERA or lower. Much like Wagner, it is going to be a tough road to Cooperstown. Wagner continues to gain support and Nathan is close to Wagner in many categories. Will Nathan be able to stay on the ballot and eventually be on the stage in Cooperstown? We will have to wait until 2022 to find out. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article