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There haven't been any exhibition games played yet, but all teams are in Spring Training and there aren't a bunch of free agents left to be signed. The Twins hope to bounce back from consecutive injury-scarred disappointing seasons and make the postseason. Here is my prediction for the 26-man roster that will play Opening Day in Kansas City on March 30th: Starting pitchers (5): Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda. All five acquired by trade from other organizations. All but Ryan have injury concerns. First alternate starter figures is to Bailey Ober, with Louis Varland an Simeon Woods Richardson also waiting in the wings. Bullpen (8): Jorge Alcala, Jhoan Duran, Ronny Henriquez, Griffin Jax, Jorge Lopez, Jovani Moran, Emilio Pagan, Caleb Thielbar. Alcala missed almost all of 2022 and it remains to be seen if he will be ready to contribute. The choices here for the last two spots in the 'pen are Moran (mostly effective last year with the Twins, less so in AAA) and Henriquez, who had a cup of coffee with the Twins after compiling less than dominant numbers in St. Paul. The choice of Henriquez is a pick to provide multiple inning outings from a bullpen member. Moran looks like he could take a step forward and be a late-inning arm, but he's not established. The last two cut (and two most likely to make the club) in my prediction are Trevor Megill and Danny Coulombe. Pitchers with options in the 'pen will most likely be up and down several times--that would include Megill, Henriquez and Moran and perhaps Alcala. Catcher (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers. Really no competition here. The questions going forward are how will playing time be split up and if either Vazquez or Jeffers spends time as a DH. The Twins have three AAA catchers with major league experience--Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner and Chance Sisco. Infield (6): Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Jorge Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano. There are injury questions around both Polanco and Kirilloff. If either one is placed on the Injured List, Nick Gordon and perhaps Joey Gallo might get some infield time. Barring injury, it would be huge upset for someone else to make the team at the expense of the six infielders listed. Outfield (5): Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor. Gallo and Gordon might see some time in the infield. Buxton is coming off knee surgery and may be built up slowly this year. There has been much speculation about Kepler's future with the Twins, but he's still here. Trevor Larnach (also coming off an injury) will probably have the opportunity to play himself onto the team. If there is a disabling position player injury in Spring Training, I would think Larnach makes the club as a DH/corner outfielder. Also in the mix is Matt Wallner, who made his big league debut last year in September. There is a significant amount of change from last year. I am predicting that five players will make their Twins' debut in Kansas City. There will be injuries and many more players will see time with the major league club. As many have commented, there is depth in the rotation and among the position players. There will be injuries and the depth will be tested at some points through the season. A lot of players will get a chance to show their skills before the season is over. There aren't many surprises listed in these predictions. Personally, I think that a nearly set roster is a good thing. I can't wait for the games to start and see what this group of players can do.
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The Twins will enter 2016 after recording their best record since 2010. They have added several young players, most of whom are here to stay. As of today, they have some gaps, but overall have a decent team returning for next year. Four players are slated to be free agents--Mike Pelfrey, Torii Hunter, Brian Duensing, and Neal Cotts. Perhaps a player or two will be non-tendered. Candidates would be Casey Fien, Eduardo Nuñez, and Blane Boyer. Here is my current projection for the Opening Day 2016 Twins. It will have no rookies making their debuts and no trade acquisitions and I will assume that only one free agent is re-signed, either Cotts or Duensing. Pitchers: (12)--Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, Kyle Gibson, Ervin Santana, Tyler Duffey, Ryan Pressly, Alex Meyer, Cotts or Duensing, Trevor May, Kevin Jepsen, and Glen Perkins. Catchers: (2)--Kurt Suzuki and Chris Herrmann. Infielders: (8)--Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana, Eduardo Nuñez, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe and Miguel Sano Outfielders: (3)--Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario Some of these predictions will look pretty silly, I'm sure. I expect Oswaldo Arcia to get a last chance to be a productive player. This along with Byron Buxton's poor offensive showing at the close of 2015 will be enough to get Buxton more AAA time. I would expect he will be patrolling center field before Memorial Day. Another candidate to make the team would be Max Kepler, who probably needs some time in AAA, but before 2016 is over will have a regular spot on the club. The backup outfielders would be the backup infielders and perhaps Escobar and I think it won't be long before an outfielder is promoted. I have Nuñez surviving another spring. He has had a good year in 2015. He's a pretty good hitter, has some speed and defensive versatility. It is very possible the Twins will choose to go another way with that roster spot. I have youngsters Vargas and Santana as bench players. I'm pretty sure Vargas has an option, so he could easily not make the team, but if Trevor Plouffe is traded, current DH Sano becomes the third baseman and Vargas could be the primary DH. Backup catcher is a problem. The usual suspects from this season appear, but perhaps Stuart Turner will hit enough to bring his strong defense to the majors. I don't expect it on Opening Day, but I think it will happen sometime in 2016. Three starting pitchers have long-term contracts. Until and unless they are shown to be ineffective beyond repair when healthy, they are in the rotation. The best starters then are Milone and Gibson. That leaves the heralded JO Berrios to spend some more time in AAA, which would also be a smart business decision. I have listed Duffey as a bullpen option, despite his good work in the last quarter of the 2015 season and Trevor May as a big bullpen arm. Taylor Rogers could convert to to relief and take a spot I've given to Duensing/Cotts. The Twins also could go with O'Rourke, more of a pure LOOGy. I think Ryan Pressly had an underrated season before getting injured and my hope is that Alex Meyer has found it as a relief pitcher--he's been effective for the last several weeks. Meyer, May, Jepsen, and Perkins could be a very effective game-closing combination. I didn't list Casey Fien or Blane Boyer, veterans who have performed quite well this season, and in Fien's case for several seasons. Unfortuanately for them, their stuff doesn't play as well in this high-velocity, high strikeout bullpen era.
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Postseason Review: Schafer, Parmelee, Nuñez
stringer bell posted a blog entry in stringer bell's Blog
This will close out my postseason reviews of position players. Parmelee and Nuñez spent a majority of the season with the Twins. Absent significant injuries, they didn't start many games. Schafer was claimed from the Braves and played regularly. All three players had their moments, but most likely won't seriously compete for a starting spot in 2015. There is a significant possibility that one or more of these players will be cut loose in the offseason. Parmelee: Chris Parmelee had chances to claim a regular position with the Twins in 2012 and 2013. In 2012 Parmelee started at first base to start the season after a very successful September audition. Justin Morneau was coming off a severe concussion and was slated to be the DH. Parmelee was given first base. He played acceptable defense, but failed to hit. Parmelee was sent to Rochester where he crushed AAA pitching, but failed to sustain his swing when recalled by the Twins. In 2013, Parm got the starting nod as the right fielder. He surprised many by being an acceptable right fielder, although he lacked speed. Again, the bat failed him and he was eventually sent to Rochester. In 2014, Parmelee competed again for a roster spot and lost out. Out of options, he was outrighted to Rochester when no one claimed him. In 32 games, Parmelee hit well, coming up with a .920 OPS and maintaining a batting average over .300. When the Twins suffered a rash of injuries, Chris was recalled and did not return to the minors. Parmelee split his playing time three ways, starting 14 games in left, 28 in right, 16 at first, and one in center field. Parmelee was inconsistent at the plate, at some points hitting in the middle of the order and other times slumping dramatically. His final numbers were so-so--a .691 OPS (94 OPS+). Probably the most striking stat was Parmelee's platoon split. His OPS vs. left handed pitching was .859, with a .325 batting average. Chris was also the Twins top pinch hitter. He was 5-13 with 7 RBI. Parmelee didn't get much of an audition late in the season, indicating that the coaching staff pretty much knew what they had. It appears Parmelee's chances of competing for a starting spot are over with the Twins. I think that if other roster moves work out that Parmelee could be a pretty good bench player. As a hitter, he has shown he can hit against lefties and has been pretty effective as a pinch hitter. He's shown he is an acceptable corner OF, as well as a good defensive first baseman. Nuñez: Eduardo Nuñez was once regarded as the probable successor for Derek Jeter. Bad defense and unspectacular offense lowered the expectation to competing for a utility spot on the Yankees. In spring training, he lost out for that job and was DFAed. The Twins claimed Eduardo and early in May, he was recalled. Nuñez was primarily a backup, and he got at-bats at several positions. He started 17 games at short, 12 at third, and 11 in the outfield (10 in left, one in right). Metrics indicate that Nuñez was pretty good in the outfield, decent at short, but subpar at third. I thought he was uncomfortable in the outfield, surprisingly good at short and third. With the bat, Nuñez had some moments, but overall was not a great hitter. He showed very good speed on the bases and a bit of pop. Probably most surprising was the platoon splits. Eduardo hit well against right handers, but struggled against lefties, putting up an OPS of .716 vs. righties, but of .586 against southpaws. The future for Nuñez is pretty cloudy. With no more additions, he has a good chance of claiming a utility spot on the 2015 Twins. As noted, he offers good speed, some versatility, and some pop for a utility player. His defense isn't outstanding and he is 27, so it is unlikely he will get substantially better either at the plate or in the field. In short stints, he has provided a shot in the arm for the Twins. Schafer: Jordan Schafer was once a top prospect for the Braves. He had had opportunities, but poor performance, off-field problems and injuries combined to short circuit his trials with the Braves and the Astros. The Braves DFAed Schafer at the trade deadline after poor performance as the last man on the bench for a contending team. The Twins claimed Jordan and immediately used him regularly, mostly as the left fielder. Regular play netted improved performance. Schafer eclipsed almost all of his Brave stats in a month, reaching base at a good clip, stealing bases and playing good defense in both left and center. Schafer hit .333 with an OPS of .831 in August. He tailed off in September, compounded by a non-throwing shoulder injury. He finished his two-month trial with the Twins with a .285 average, .707 OPS (100 OPS+) and 15 stolen bases in 147 plate appearances (roughly a quarter of the season). Schafer posted severe platoon splits for both the Braves and the Twins in 2014. He had an OPS of .822 (.326 BA) against right handed pitchers, but had a near-helpless .388 OPS (.171 BA) against same-handed hurlers. Schafer displayed one outstanding skill--he is an outstanding base stealer. He swiped 15 bases in his limited time with the Twins. His defense rated as pretty good, especially in left field, a new position for him. Going forward, the Twins must decide what to do with the arb-eligible Schafer. Given his good performance late in 2014 and the lack of great internal options, I expect that the Twins will find a way to retain him. I expect that Schafer will compete for a starting spot, but his likely landing spot is fourth or platoon OF. Having the skill of being an accomplished base thief gives him a leg up to be a helpful bench player. His poor performance against LH pitching would limit him to being a platoon player at best. At 28 years of age, the most the Twins can hope for from Schafer would be to see what they saw from him in August and September. I think that Schafer can be a helpful player for an improving Twins team. I think all three players profiled here are big-leaguers. I don't think any of them will ever be more than a part-time player. None of the guys is really young (Parm 26, Nuñez 27, and Schafer 28), but all seem to have skills that could help them be helpful bench guys. Nuñez plays both infield and outfield, Parmelee plays first and the outfield corners and Schafer looks like a three-positon outfielder. Nuñez and Schafer have good speed and Schafer appears to be an elite base stealer. Parmelee had a good season (SSS) pinch-hitting and facing LH pitching. Ideally, bench players should provide high-quality defense, and that's not the case here. Acquisitions and DFAs will probably determine whether all three guys remain with the Twins.- 4 comments
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