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"You never know what you're gonna get" (from Forrest Gump), this little witticism also applies to baseball players. Every front office projects what their prospects will become, but it is never a sure bet. Consider two current Minnesota Twins: Brian Dozier came to the Twins as a shortstop, thought to be fundamentally sound in the field, but without great tools. As a hitter, he had never hit below .274 and never exceeded nine homers in a season, with his top year yielding at .320 average in a year split between advanced A ball and AA. Typical middle infielder profile. Sometime in 2013, the scouting report changed--Dozier has become a second baseman and a guy with a low batting average, but with the most extra base sock for his position in major league baseball. It could be argued that from the start of 2014 (or perhaps midseason of 2013) until the All-Star break in 2015 that Dozier put together elite numbers based on his power numbers. Overall, despite the low batting average and middling overall OBP, Dozier has established himself as a hitter based on his extra-base hits. Since 2013 he has compiled 105 doubles and 69 homers from second base. Now, lets look at Oswaldo Arcia: Coming through the system, the most used comp for Arcia was Bobby Abreu, a fine hitter with some power. Arcia hit his way throught the minors, always as a young player for the league. He topped out at 17 homers in 2012, splitting his season between A+ and AA and hitting a combined .320. As a Twin, Arcia has become a true home run threat, hitting 34 homers (including some prodigious long balls) in under 800 plate appearances in 2013 and 2014. However, the batting average and more importantly strike zone discipline have diminished dramatically. Both players have increased their power numbers at the highest level, but lost something in the transition. Dozier hasn't cracked .250 for batting average and this season set the club strikeout record. Arcia's K percentage is much higher than Dozier's and he seldom takes a free pass, in fact this year for the Twins Arcia didn't get a non-intentional walk (65 PAs). I think the Twins would be happy if both Dozier and Arcia became more complete hitters, even if it costs a few home runs. In Arcia's case, I think his time in Minnesota will end if he doesn't modify his approach (and results), while with Dozier, becoming someone who uses the whole field more often would be an adjustment to the adjustments that major league pitchers have used on him.

n 2016, barring a trade, the Twins will have five players under the age of 26 who profile to be good or better outfielders. Five of these players will have played for the Twins, and the sixth (Max Kepler) might make his debut this September. Here's a look at all six, with my view of strengths and weaknesses: Oswaldo Arcia--Strengths: Big Time left handed power. In 853 Twins' plate appearances, he has 36 homers and a .437 slugging average. Pedigree of hitting. Going into this year, Arcia dominated the minor leagues, hitting .314 with a .375 OBP, and played each level young for his age. Charisma. He's an emotional player, who loves to do well and celebrate his success. Weaknesses: Fielding. Watching Arcia in the field has ranged from entertaining to embarrassing. He has a good arm and covers enough ground, but has let several balls clank off his glove or fall to the ground. He has been guilty of taking bad at-bats to the field, losing focus and playing fundamentally unsound defense. Strikeouts. Even in this high-K era, Arcia qualifies as a strikeout machine. He has whiffed 259 times in his 853 PAs, well over 30% of the time. Platoon splits. Arcia has struggled against lefties. His OPS+ vs. port siders is 67 with a batting average of .231. Byron Buxton--Strengths: Tools, Obvious to all, Buxton has a wealth of athletic tools. He is the fastest man to ever wear a Twins uni, he has impressive bat speed and plentiful strength to hit for average and power, and a fine arm plus great fielding instincts. Work ethic. With all the tools, Buxton is both coachable and a hard worker. He profiles as a leadoff hitter with 50+ stolen base speed who would transition to the middle of the order. Weaknesses: Unproveness (is that a word?). Buxton has only 40 plate appearances and didn't thrive, hitting under .200. The slowest to develop of Buxton's tools are his hitting. He has started slowly at each level.Injuries. Buxton missed almost all of last year with three injuries. He only played a handful of games for the Twins before going on the DL. Aaron Hicks--Strengths: Again, tools. Hicks profiles as above average in all five tools. He isn't off the charts in any category, but is a fast runner with a cannon arm, he can reach the seats and reach base and cover ample ground in the outfield. Selectivity. As a hitter, Hicks chases less than most young players, and has always drawn his share of walks. Since coming back to the team this year, he has remained selective, while being a more aggressive as a hitter. Weaknesses: Platoon splits. Hicks lifetime average vs. right handers is below .200 (.568 OPS), while hitting almost 100 points higher vs. lefties and has an OPS of .860. Looking only at 2015, the splits are still there. he's hitting .237 (.639 OPS) against right handers, but continues to have a dominant side, hitting .404 with a 1.092 OPS against left handed pitching. Previous struggles. Hicks was a failure in 2013 and a disappointment in 2014, if he slumps will he tumble back to that level? Max Kepler--Strengths: Projectable sweet swing. From the start Kepler has always looked the part of a fine hitter. He hadn't played much baseball when signed by the Twins and needed plenty of time to get things in order, but he's always projected as a fine hitter.Athletic. Kepler is tall, but fast. He might lead his league in triples (passing Buxton) and has stolen 13 bases in 2/3 of a season. League Dominance. As of yesterday, Kepler led the SL, in hitting, on-base, slugging, and OPS. Versatility. Kepler is a lefty all the way, but has played all three outfield positions plus first base. He projects as a good defender at the corners, Weaknesses: Two levels to go. Kepler is only at AA, he hasn't played an inning at AAA or in the majors. Injuries. Max has had his share of injuries, which probably slowed his development to this point. He missed the Futures Game with a sore shoulder. Platoon splits. Going into this year, Kepler had struggled against left handed pitching. He has solved lefties this year, with an OPS above .850. Lack of Power. Kepler has only six homers this year, three in the last week. Power is often the last tool to come forward, but it is possible that at his peak, even if he blossoms, his line might more resemble Joe Mauer than Bryce Harper or Mike Trout. Eddie Rosario--Strengths: Solid Stroke. Eddie has been viewed as a solid hitter and carried that to the major leagues. Stands in against lefties. No discernible platoon splits. He's able to hit for about the same amount of power regardless of which hand the pitcher throws with. Aggressive. Rosario gets his hacks, plays in the field and runs the bases aggressively. It has caused some outs on the bases and a couple of errors, but the net has been positive. Versatile defender. Rosario has started multiple games in all three outfield positions and done fine at all three. He has enough range to play center and enough arm to play right. Weaknesses: Over aggressive. The flip side of Rosario's aggressiveness is that he chases pitches, runs into outs and takes too many risks in the field. Not dominant. Doubtful that Rosario will ever be a slugger or contend for a batting championship. He profiles mostly as "good", but not elite. Strike against him. Eddie was suspended for a drug of abuse, meaning that any other infractions would cost him a season. I am assuming that Kepler will be ready to help the Twins by sometime in the first half of next year, if not sooner. With the DH, the Twins could carry four of these five guys and have enough at-bats for all of them. However, five outfielders needing more than 500 plate appearances is one too many. Do the Twins deal one of these guys to get bullpen help, a catcher or a shortstop? Since they are all young, I would think that they need to choose one guy and give him up to address positions of relative weakness. My pick would be Arcia, mostly because of his struggles in the field. A case could be made for Hicks, Rosario or Kepler.

The outfield and DH positions on the Twins presents many options and decisions will have to be made. The opening day outfield of Hunter, Schafer, and Arcia has been revamped to Hunter, Buxton, and Rosario. DH Kennys Vargas was demoted and has returned, but his status and his future are uncertain. Hunter started slowly this year, had a fine month of May and, with most of the team, fallen off in June. Torii has provided good offense, satisfactory defense and a whole bunch of personality. He's under contract for this season and so far the team has gotten it's money's worth from the almost 40-year old. He figures to be the primary right fielder, with several DH days, going forward. Buxton, the crown jewel of the Twins' farm system, was recalled last Sunday. He has a two week audition where he can take over center field, if not he would go back to the minors. The bar isn't that high and I expect BB will do enough to prolong his stay with the Twins. If Buxton is demoted, the job goes back to Aaron Hicks, who has looked like a big leaguer, but not a future star. Eddie Rosario has had a good run with the Twins. He has played both corners and made a number of good plays in the field. He's done a nice job hitting. He still doesn't walk much, but I think he is getting better at swinging at strikes. I think Rosario is here to stay. Like the Twins best player, Brian Dozier, he can hit, run the bases, and cover a lot of ground in the outfield and he has a good, accurate arm. If Rosario is the regular in left, it moves Oswaldo Arcia to compete with Vargas for DH at-bats. Torii Hunter is on a one-year contract and will be 40 next month. Despite his good season, I can't see Hunter continuing as a player with the Twins. Going forward, the Twins have several candidates to step forward. Arcia is in AAA. In Chattanooga Adam Brett Walker and Max Kepler are having breakout seasons. A year from now, most of those guys could be in the big leagues. It is great to have such a rich farm system, but not all the guys will be able to play where they should be playing. There will be 40-man roster issues and I think the Twins will have to selectively reduce guys who may be read to contribute. That is why I can get behind a building team making a trade where they yield prospects. The Twins need to decide who to go with. I think the emphasis should be to go with younger, more athletic players who can contribute in all facets of the game. Buxton, Rosario, Dozier, and perhaps Hicks represent a bright future.

The Minnesota Twins promoted well-regarded prospect Eddie Rosario from Triple-A Rochester on Monday. Rosario wasn’t in uniform in time to start the game, and ultimately didn’t get in as the Twins eked out a close 8-7 win.Rosario, a two-time top-100 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus, was hitting just .242/.280/.370 at Rochester, leaving some to question why Aaron Hicks didn’t get the call instead due to his superior statistics. Manager Paul Molitor suggested it was not necessarily a long-term solution, which might have in turn led to a more permanent option being selected from the Red Wings. “He’s gonna get a chance to play in the short term,” Molitor noted. — The move that corresponded with Rosario’s promotion was putting outfielder Oswaldo Arcia on the disabled list with a right hip flexor strain. The injury isn’t entirely dissimilar from what forced Phil Hughes from his previous start, but perhaps just a bit more severe. Arcia said he first felt it when fielding a ball in the outfield and making a throw on Sunday, and it again seized up on him when he poked a single in a later at-bat. “When I tried to run hard, oh!” he colorfully quipped while talking to reporters in the clubhouse Monday afternoon. Arcia moved about with a considerable limp, and took a bit of ribbing from the team’s special assistant Tony Oliva, who is part of the uniformed personnel before games, and is no stranger to lower body injuries. Terry Ryan said he doesn’t expect an extended stay on the disabled list for Arcia. “I would hope after 15 days he’d be plenty ready to go,” Ryan said. “I don’t think anybody in there medical-wise is all that worried It’ll be one of those longstanding deals.” Arcia intimated to reporters before the game that he figured he’d be good to go in seven-to-10 days. — Also in the discussion for call-up in Arcia’s stead were Hicks (.289/.375/.494), Josmil Pinto (.299/.382/.403) and even Eric Fryer, who has been quite good (15-for-27 to start the season) in limited time splitting reps behind the plate in Rochester with Pinto. Ryan’s reasoning for possibly bringing up a catcher was that it would allow Chris Herrmann the flexibility to play in the outfield as well, but the team ultimately opted against it because both Rosario and Hicks offered the added flexibility of being able to handle center field. In that sense, it really seems as though the final decision came down to Rosario v. Hicks, with the Twins deciding they wanted to get a quick look at Rosario in his first cup of coffee in the big leagues. “This will be an opportunity to get his feet wet up here and see what it’s all about,” Ryan said of Rosario. “We’ll see how he responds and see what we’ve got.” Both Ryan and Molitor were complimentary of Hicks and Pinto as well, suggesting that this was by no means an easy decision. “Aaron’s doing fine,” Molitor said. “I’ve heard some really good things about him. His day could come soon as well.” Ryan added, “If this was a lockdown decision, you guys wouldn’t even be asking. But it wasn’t, we just haven’t had any outfielders go down recently.” — OLD FRIEND UPDATE Sam Fuld pinch ran for the A’s in the ninth inning after starting the game on the bench and is hitting just .216/.278/.341 in the early going while playing almost exclusively in center field. The plan was for Fuld and Craig Gentry to split time out there, but with Coco Crisp shelved with an elbow injury to start the season — he’s currently on a rehab assignment — both players have seen a good chunk of time, with Gentry mostly in left and Rule 5 player Mark Canha mixing in as well. Catcher Drew Butera was designated for assignment by the Los Angeles Angels after hitting just .190/.190/.190 in 21 plate appearances spanning 10 games. The 31-year-old Butera will have the option of refusing the assignment to the minor leagues should it come to that, but for now he’s been passed over by Carlos Perez as the primary backup to starting catcher Chris Iannetta. — TRIVIA Who did Joe Mauer hit his first career home run off? — AROUND THE AFFILIATES Rochester (14-9): Idle on Monday. Alex Meyer went seven innings, allowing just three earned runs with six strikeouts and four walks in Sunday’s win over Norfolk. Old friend Chris Parmelee (0-for-3, two walks) batted third for the Tides. Chattanooga (13-11): Byron Buxton continued his red-hot tear with a two-run walkoff home run in the bottom of the ninth to give the Lookouts a 2-0 win over Jacksonville. Zack Jones had pitched a scoreless ninth with two strikeouts and a pair of hits and ultimately got the win. Buxton’s home run and an earlier single from Sano accounted for all of the Lookouts’ hits for the day. Fort Myers (9-16): The Miracle’s woes continued, as they were held to just five hits as Matt Benedict, Isaac Sanchez and Brett McKinney of Bradenton held Fort Myers scoreless. Recently-promoted outfielder Zach Granite was the only Miracle player with more than one hit (2-for-4). Cedar Rapids (14-11): The Kernels scored the game’s final six runs en route to a 9-3 win over homestanding Wisconsin. The Kernels pounded out five doubles and a triple, with T.J. White (3-for-4) and Max Murphy (2-for-4) leading the way. Jared Wilson tossed six strong innings with seven strikeouts and three earned runs, and Zach Tillery took it the rest of the way, fanning four with just one hit allowed over the final three frames. — Speaking of Buxton — who was not in consideration for the roster opening vacated by Arcia, Ryan and Molitor both noted on Monday — it’s worth noting that this is a young man who is on an absolute tear. This is a guy who was hitting exactly his listed weight (.190) after play on April 26. But from April 27 to May 3 — so not yet including Monday’s heroics — Buxton hit .483/.543/.828 with two doubles and four triples over that seven-game span. That brought his season line up to .283/.357/.506, which is much more Buxton-like and could signify that the rust accrued over a mostly-lost 2014 season is dissipating. The Twins won’t tip their hand on plans for the uber-talented youngster, but reading between the lines, the club won’t wait a second longer than necessary once he is deemed ready. — BY THE NUMBERS 0 – Number of walks issued by Glen Perkins in 12 innings of work so far this season. 0 – Also the number of walks drawn by shortstop Danny Santana before he coaxed a four-pitch walk in the eighth. Santana was the last of 180 ‘qualified’ players in the big leagues to draw a walk this season. Santana and Jordan Schafer were the only two Twins to draw walks on the night; they came into the game with two walks combined over 150 plate appearances. 0 – Number of stolen bases for Jordan Schafer in three attempts. 0 – Number of teams striking out fewer batters than the Twins pitching staff, which entered play Monday at 5.3. The next worst — Texas — is still a full strikeout better at 6.4. 0 – Similarly, no teams came into Monday with a worse xFIP than the Twins at 4.60. In short, some numbers don’t believe the Twins’ team ERA of 4.03 — 19th league wide — is sustainable. Only time will tell. — TRIVIA ANSWER Joe Mauer homered off Detroit reliever Esteban Yan on June 6, 2004 — a three-run homer that gave the Twins the lead in the bottom of the eighth in an eventual 6-5 win. Click here to view the article