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This week, however, there guarantees to be news* with the team and its six arbitration-eligible players. There are two deadlines this week: Tuesday is the deadline for these players to file for arbitration and Friday is the deadline to exchange figures. As has been the case over the past handful of years, the Twins and the players will file their figures and eventually the two parties settle right around the midpoint of those figures. This can happen any time before the arbitration hearing takes place. The Twins haven't gone to arbitration with a player since losing to Kyle Lohse in 2006 and 2007. Projecting arbitration figures can be fun and frustrating. Teams and players will typically base their filed salary on players they find comparable. Teams looking for comparable players making less and players looking for comparable players making more. You can find these projections all over the place, but instead of simply making a guess, here you'll find a comparable. And for the sake of consistency, you're going to get a comparable from the team's point of view. (What that means is that this number will probably be closer to what the team files and where they settle will be a few hundred thousand dollars - give or take - higher.) Eduardo Escobar, SS Escobar narrowly missed qualifying for arbitration last year and stands to make in excess of a million dollars in 2016. While MLBTR has Escobar slotted for $1.8 million, I expect the team to file for much less. My comparison: Alexi Amarista of the Padres. While Amarista played in over 100 games in each of his pre-arbitration season and Escobar has only done it twice, Amarista and Escobar have shared a super-utility role. Going into arbitration last year, Amarista was a 2.0 bWAR player who played primarily shortstop but also second base, third base and outfield. Going into Escobar's first arbitration season? A 2.0 bWAR player who played primarily at shortstop but also second base, third base and outfield. How did Amarista make out? He signed a two-year deal that included base salaries of $1.1 million and $1.3 million and also got a $100K signing bonus. The salary I'd file: $1.25 million. I'd anticipate Escobar's camp is going to come to the table focusing on Escobar as a shortstop and using that to increase his value. Trevor Plouffe, 3B Plouffe's case has to be viewed a little differently because he entered arbitration as a Super-2, so despite being a 4+ player he's already entering his third arbitration-eligible season. He'll see the added value of getting a fourth season next year. The best recent comparison for Plouffe is David Freese. While not perfect, Freese took a leap from $3.15 million to $5.05 million to $6.425 million. The last figure came as a settlement at the midpoint after the team filed at $5.25 million and the team countered at $7.6 million. Currently, MLBTR has Plouffe down for $7.7 million. He might be a slightly better player than Freese, but getting more than Freese even filed for? That seems a bit excessive. Plouffe jumped from $2.35 million to $4.8 million last year. Where would I file? $6.25 million. Even if Plouffe files at $7.7 million, the midpoint is still a shade under $7 million. Tommy Milone, P Milone is coming off a Super-2 season where he played at replacement level. Not that the Super-2 designation is important is this situation, but the most likely comparable is Mike Minor, who was also coming off a replacement level-type season going into his 3+ season. Minor got an increase in salary of 45%. A similar increase for Milone, who MLBTR has pegged for $4.5 million, would leave my figure at $4 million. Eduardo Nunez, INF Nunez is tough to peg. Mostly because players like himself don't make it to arbitration the second time. After making $1.25 million last season, I'd make the same offer this season. Kevin Jepsen, RP Jepsen is the type of player that will likely see a large gap between the team's and player's filing figure. Jepsen's camp will view him as a closer and think he should be paid as one. The club will have a hard time arguing that he isn't - since that's basically the only role he played for them - but they will try. Jepsen also got a pretty significant raise before last season, earning $3.025 million as a middle reliever. Looking at a handful of different closer-types, I would file at $4.65 million, a far cry from MLBTR's $6.0 million. Jepsen could also be an extension candidate. Could the Twins sign the free-agent-to-be to a two-year/$11 million deal? Should they? Casey Fien, RP Fien is another one of those cases of trying to find a comparison in a situation where his best comps were non-tendered. Shawn Kelley made less than a million dollars in his first arbitration year and then nearly doubled his salary after a replacement-level season. Fien made $1.375 million as a Super-2, but shouldn't command twice that. The issue remains, though, that there isn't a good comparable that settled in the arbitration process. The Twins probably can't get by offering less than $2 million. Regardless of how and when all these cases are handled, at least there will be news* right? *It really depends on your definition of "news."
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Aside from a three-day flurry of moves in early November, the winter has largely been ho-hum for the Twins and their fans. The bullpen? Same. Plouffe and Sano?! Yep. Rotation help? Nada. Mauer back to catcher? Don't you even...This week, however, there guarantees to be news* with the team and its six arbitration-eligible players. There are two deadlines this week: Tuesday is the deadline for these players to file for arbitration and Friday is the deadline to exchange figures. As has been the case over the past handful of years, the Twins and the players will file their figures and eventually the two parties settle right around the midpoint of those figures. This can happen any time before the arbitration hearing takes place. The Twins haven't gone to arbitration with a player since losing to Kyle Lohse in 2006 and 2007. Projecting arbitration figures can be fun and frustrating. Teams and players will typically base their filed salary on players they find comparable. Teams looking for comparable players making less and players looking for comparable players making more. You can find these projections all over the place, but instead of simply making a guess, here you'll find a comparable. And for the sake of consistency, you're going to get a comparable from the team's point of view. (What that means is that this number will probably be closer to what the team files and where they settle will be a few hundred thousand dollars - give or take - higher.) Eduardo Escobar, SS Escobar narrowly missed qualifying for arbitration last year and stands to make in excess of a million dollars in 2016. While MLBTR has Escobar slotted for $1.8 million, I expect the team to file for much less. My comparison: Alexi Amarista of the Padres. While Amarista played in over 100 games in each of his pre-arbitration season and Escobar has only done it twice, Amarista and Escobar have shared a super-utility role. Going into arbitration last year, Amarista was a 2.0 bWAR player who played primarily shortstop but also second base, third base and outfield. Going into Escobar's first arbitration season? A 2.0 bWAR player who played primarily at shortstop but also second base, third base and outfield. How did Amarista make out? He signed a two-year deal that included base salaries of $1.1 million and $1.3 million and also got a $100K signing bonus. The salary I'd file: $1.25 million. I'd anticipate Escobar's camp is going to come to the table focusing on Escobar as a shortstop and using that to increase his value. Trevor Plouffe, 3B Plouffe's case has to be viewed a little differently because he entered arbitration as a Super-2, so despite being a 4+ player he's already entering his third arbitration-eligible season. He'll see the added value of getting a fourth season next year. The best recent comparison for Plouffe is David Freese. While not perfect, Freese took a leap from $3.15 million to $5.05 million to $6.425 million. The last figure came as a settlement at the midpoint after the team filed at $5.25 million and the team countered at $7.6 million. Currently, MLBTR has Plouffe down for $7.7 million. He might be a slightly better player than Freese, but getting more than Freese even filed for? That seems a bit excessive. Plouffe jumped from $2.35 million to $4.8 million last year. Where would I file? $6.25 million. Even if Plouffe files at $7.7 million, the midpoint is still a shade under $7 million. Tommy Milone, P Milone is coming off a Super-2 season where he played at replacement level. Not that the Super-2 designation is important is this situation, but the most likely comparable is Mike Minor, who was also coming off a replacement level-type season going into his 3+ season. Minor got an increase in salary of 45%. A similar increase for Milone, who MLBTR has pegged for $4.5 million, would leave my figure at $4 million. Eduardo Nunez, INF Nunez is tough to peg. Mostly because players like himself don't make it to arbitration the second time. After making $1.25 million last season, I'd make the same offer this season. Kevin Jepsen, RP Jepsen is the type of player that will likely see a large gap between the team's and player's filing figure. Jepsen's camp will view him as a closer and think he should be paid as one. The club will have a hard time arguing that he isn't - since that's basically the only role he played for them - but they will try. Jepsen also got a pretty significant raise before last season, earning $3.025 million as a middle reliever. Looking at a handful of different closer-types, I would file at $4.65 million, a far cry from MLBTR's $6.0 million. Jepsen could also be an extension candidate. Could the Twins sign the free-agent-to-be to a two-year/$11 million deal? Should they? Casey Fien, RP Fien is another one of those cases of trying to find a comparison in a situation where his best comps were non-tendered. Shawn Kelley made less than a million dollars in his first arbitration year and then nearly doubled his salary after a replacement-level season. Fien made $1.375 million as a Super-2, but shouldn't command twice that. The issue remains, though, that there isn't a good comparable that settled in the arbitration process. The Twins probably can't get by offering less than $2 million. Regardless of how and when all these cases are handled, at least there will be news* right? *It really depends on your definition of "news." Click here to view the article
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