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When news broke that lights-out lefty Antonio Bastardo had signed with the New York Mets, Twins faithful were understandably disappointed. After all, the 30-year-old Antonio Bastardo represented everything that the Twins could want: a reliever with a proven successful track record and also just happen to throw with his left hand. As fate would have it, the Twins were in the market for a set-up left-hander to complement the consortium of righties in the bullpen. Nevertheless, they missed out on Bastardo.On the Twins network radio program, general manager Terry Ryan said he was quite content with the assortment of arms he and his staff had already started collecting. In response to missing out (or perhaps sitting out) on Bastardo, Ryan mentioned that he had confidence in finding someone who could provide that kind of production -- specifically naming the recently signed Fernando Abad. As LaVelle Neal from the Star Tribune reported last week, the Minnesota Twins scouts say they feel that Abad had been tipping his pitches in 2015 resulting in the obliteration of many that had he spun toward home plate. When you consider that his home run rate skyrocketed to over two per nine innings pitched, as well as his well-hit average jumping from a career rate under 25% to above 35% in 2015, the theory seems plausible that hitters were tipped off by something in Abad’s methods. Beyond those two high-level metrics, more granular data may also corroborate the Twins’ theory. For instance, when you examine Abad’s chase rate on his two most frequented pitches -- his fastball and curve ball -- over the past four seasons, the numbers show a stark drop in hitters chasing pitches out of the zone. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s data, Abad was able to get hitters to chase after a fastball out of the strike zone 28.5% of the time from 2012 through 2014. This past year, however, hitters held up much more frequently, chasing after 20% of his out-of-zone fastballs. Likewise, opponents followed his breaking ball out of the strike zone 31% of the time from 2012-2014 but chased just 24% of time in 2015. It stands to reason that if hitters were able to pick up on what was coming ahead of time, they would have a better chance at zoning the pitch. Less chance of being fooled would lead to fewer silly swings. Tipping pitches is not exclusive to struggling relievers -- just ask David Price. In the ALCS, Price was cruising along for the Toronto Blue Jays and was shutting down the Kansas City Royals lineup in Game 2. In the seventh inning, however, the Royals began to make loud impact and put four runs on the big lefthander. Later, a member of the Royals staff confirmed to Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci that they had picked up on Price’s tell. When Price threw his change-up, he would take an extra deep breath and hold the ball a fraction longer than when he threw his fastball. In the 2001 World Series, the Diamondbacks jumped all over the Yankees to a 15-2, Arizona chased Andy Pettitte out of the game early based on a tell that gave hitters a head’s up. According to broadcaster Rick Sutcliffe, Pettitte would double-tap the ball in his glove in the set position when he was coming with a fastball. Former Diamondback Jay Bell later confirmed this, saying his team had a “clear picture” of what the Yankee southpaw was going to throw. While Price and Pettitte’s stories are the norm when it comes to tipping pitches, there are other more absurd missteps. In his book “Throwback” former catcher Jason Kendall shared the story of Ted Lilly who would actually silently mouth the word “fastball” or “curve” to his catcher if he thought the hitter was taking a warm- up swing or looking down at the third base coach. Often, Lilly would zone out and simply mouth the pitch he wanted no matter who was looking. So what are the Twins’ scouts and hitters possibly seeing from Abad? Going over several of his outings from MLB.tv, there is one possibility of a pattern that starts to emerge in 2015. Take a look at the images below. The images are captured at the moment Abad brings his hands together before dropping his hands to his belt and delivering the pitch. In the top two images, Abad is about to throw a fastball. In the bottom, a breaking ball. Download attachment: Abad_Fastball.PNG Download attachment: Abad_Fastball2.PNG Download attachment: Abad_Breaking Ball.PNG As you can see, Abad’s hands are much higher when he collects prior to spinning a breaking ball to the Angels’ Kole Calhoun than in the other two pitches above. This seemed to happen several times over this season: His threw a fastball from the lower starting point and spun a pitch when he gathered high. It probably would not take long for a major league hitter, coach or scout to pick up on that pattern. http://i.imgur.com/bTViIMj.gif http://i.imgur.com/Isw4qzS.gif Could Abad’s struggles in 2015 really be sourced to an abundantly obvious tell? Abad’s gopher ball struggles might not be completely related to the pitch tipping (although that likely didn’t help). He also lost a noticeable amount of velocity off of his fastball -- dropping nearly two miles per hour on the heat over the previous season. He also added a very meh cutter to his repertoire. Furthermore, tipping his pitches or not, Abad fell behind hitters far too often this past season. He was getting strike one at a 52% clip which was well below the league average of 60%. Once he was behind, hitters could tee off. And tee off they did. Opponents slugged .963 off of Abad in hitter’s counts -- only five other relievers with 30 or more appearances fared worse (including Minnesota’s Trevor May). A combination of a diminished fastball and an expected fastball count will equal KABLOOIE. The Twins seem confident that they can fix Abad. In addition to eliminating his pitch tipping potential, Abad has one of the game’s best left-handed change-ups that can be harnessed. Opponents languished against the offspeed pitch, hitting just .125 while showing little ability to make much contact. It is no secret that Twins’ pitching coach Neil Allen has introduced methods for using the change-up more effectively and Abad seems like someone who could benefit greatly from that knowledge. As someone who is a year removed from chucking 97 mile per hour darts and holding lefties to a .191 batting average, Abad is a worthy gamble. If the collective scouting brain trust feel like they have some adjustments answers that will help him get back to his 2014 success, Abad stands to be a decent addition. Then again, Abad’s entire body of work over his career isn’t all that impressive. The downside is that the Twins have not secured a suitable left-handed alternative if he doesn’t bounce back. Click here to view the article

Many wonder why the Minnesota Twins haven’t signed lefty-reliever Antonio Bastardo. Similar to Tony Sipp, who re-signed with the Astros for three years and $18 million, Bastardo remains unsigned. He is said to be looking for a similar contract. So, why haven’t the Twins been said to be in the conversation, at least not heavily? There are a few good, legitimate reasons. Some good reasons involving Bastardo, and several more good reasons because of other, internal options. Although Bastardo has struck out 11 batters per nine innings, he also has walked 4.3 batters per nine innings. That’s a lot of strikeouts, but it’s also a lot of walks.Per Doogie Wolfson in his most recent episode of The Scoops on 1500 ESPN’s podcast network, the Twins are certainly monitoring the Bastardo situation. Wolfson said he has been told by those in the know that the Twins are interested in Bastardo at one year and $3-4 million. As a Twins fan who also keeps fairly close tabs on the minor leagues, I fully support this decision. First, walks bug me. I like strikeouts as much as anyone, but walks annoy me. Bastardo is entertaining to watch as he can be completely dominant at times, but at other times he can be equally frustrating. The nature of relief pitchers is such that you never really know what you’re going to get. Tony Sipp was a great example of that. He was mediocre at best in his first six seasons, with Cleveland. But in his two years with the Astros, he has been very good. Bastardo’s career can be summarized simply by looking at his ERA+ in his six full seasons with the Pirates. Since 2010, his ERA+ have been 96, 146, 94, 163, 95, and then 129 in 2015. Of course, we know that ERA isn’t necessarily the best way to note how a reliever pitches. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) numbers have been between 2.76 and 3.34 in those years. I’d be fine with the Twins signing Antonio Bastardo, but I personally agree that a one-year deal is more ideal than a three year deal. In fact, I would make the case that I’d be fine with a one year, $7 million deal rather than a three year, $18 million deal. And, as much as we (many Twins fans) just want the Twins to sign Bastardo because we are comfortable with a three year, $18 million deal. The other thing to remember is that no team has been willing to offer him the three year, $18 million contract that he is said to be looking for. The other reason that I feel fully comfortable with the Twins saying they are willing to only go one year on Bastardo is because, as someone who follows the team’s farm system, there are some high-upside, power arms coming and soon. Last week, Wolfson tweeted, “Radcliff sites Reed, Chargois, Burdi, Rogers, Melotakis, Landa, as all being close. On Landa, ‘Will open eyes this spring.’” While I believe that Landa has incredible upside because he throws upper-90s gas, I would be surprised if he was ready before mid-2017. The others? I think all five of those are guys who could be ready by mid-season 2016. I think Taylor Rogers is ready for a reliever role in the Twins bullpen right away. The main reason to start him in AAA would just be to get him used to working in the bullpen after starting his entire career.The hope was that Nick Burdi might be ready last year. He really struggled, but then came on strong late in the season and continued that domination in the Arizona Fall League. He made some adjustment, and threw more strikes. He may be given a shot at an Opening Day roster spot, but I would think he could be up before June 1.JT Chargois missed all of the 2013 and 2014 seasons with elbow issues and eventually Tommy John surgery. He returned to Instructional League after the 2014 season and was hitting triple-digits. In his return in 2015, he was throwing in the upper-90s, occasionally hitting 100. He spent half of the season in Ft. Myers, and then was the closer through most of the second half of the season for the Lookouts.The former 2nd rounder, who was co-closer at Rice with Tyler Duffey, will also be given a real opportunity to make the Opening Day roster. Like Burdi, it’s more likely that he begins the season in the minor leagues, but he could be up in the season’s first couple of months.Mason Melotakis is another left-hander who may not be far off. He missed all of 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, but reports from Instructs after the season had him hitting 97 again. He was a college reliever who was given the opportunity to start. However, four starts into his 2014 season, he was moved back to the bullpen full time. While I think the Twins will (and should) be cautious with him early in the season, he could prove ready after the All Star break.Jake Reed struggled in his first full minor league season in 2015. The Twins had him start in AA, and he struggled. He went down to Ft. Myers (a level he had skipped) and did well and was quickly back with the Lookouts. He was tremendous in the Arizona Fall League as well. He will likely start the season in AA again, but is a guy who could be ready before the season is over. I would guess he will debut early in 2017, but certainly is feasible in 2016 as well.Yorman Landa is the sixth guy that Wolfson said that Radcliff mentioned. Again, he frequently hit 97-98 mph with his fastball. But he missed the first half of 2015 and a bunch of time in 2014 after shoulder surgery. He dominated at Cedar Rapids, but he has a ways to go. I would say the earliest he’d be ready would be by mid-2017.When I mentioned this to Wolfson, he added this tweet, “Radcliff told me they have 13 arms that have a good chance to be here by, at latest, mid-2017. Didn’t realize it was that high.” So, being me, I had to do a little research. Could I add seven names to the six mentioned above? Of course, when we hear that 13 arms could be ready by mid-2017, it’s important to remember that there are generally only seven or eight arms in a big league bullpen. So, while I have no problem with the statement, we also need to realize that opportunity also comes into play. In other words, we won’t likely see 13 arms before then. But who all could Radcliff be referring to? I’m going to assume that guys like Ryan Pressly, Michael Tonkin and JR Graham are among the 13. Pressly was part of the Twins bullpen when his season came to an end in mid-summer. He was pitching well. Michael Tonkin has been up and down, literally, a dozen times in the last three years. He is now out of options, so he will have to stick or be potentially claimed by another team. JR Graham spent all of 2015 with the Twins after they used the Rule 5 pick on him. He had the biggest arm in the Twins bullpen last year, but was still learning to pitch in the bullpen. He’s likely to spend a lot of time in Rochester in 2016. With those three added to the first six, that gives us nine. Let’s see if we can find another four or more. No problem. Alex Meyer - 2015 is over. 2016 is a new year. It’s a big year for Meyer, but the talent and potential are still there. He will come to spring training with an opportunity to make the team. If not, he could be a guy who comes up quick if he pitches more like he did in 2014 than 2015.Corey Williams - Williams missed all of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery. He returned in June of 2015 and pitched well, getting back to AA. He hits 93 and 94, and could add a bit more in 2016. He’s also known as having a great slider. He is certainly one to watch.Logan Darnell - He struggled early in his transition to the bullpen, but he can be a lefty-reliever option, or at least a long-relief option.Pat Dean - Somewhat controversial when he was added to the 40 man roster, Dean had a terrific 2015 season in Rochester. Though he tops out at 90, he has a good slider and curveball and could be an option as a reliever.Luke Bard - Fought injuries and went through a few surgeries since being drafted, but Luke Bard finally was healthy in the second half of 2015. The Twins kept him in Cedar Rapids, but he could move quickly in 2016. He throws hard and has a strong three-pitch mix. He is definitely a sleeper for me in 2016.Jason Adam - He missed all of 2015 with elbow surgery, but the right-hander was a Top 10 prospect in the Royals system just a couple of years ago. If he can return to form, he is certainly one to monitor this year.Trevor Hildenberger - He was our choice as Twins minor league relief pitcher of the year in 2015. He began the season dominating in Cedar Rapids, and fared well in Ft. Myers upon his promotion. He also pitched very well in the Arizona Fall League. The side-winder throws harder than most sidearm throwers, but also has confidence in three pitches in any count.Brandon Peterson - The Minnesota native was our choice for Twins minor league reliever of the year in 2014. He pitched in Ft. Myers and Chattanooga in 2015. At one point, he went 25 innings without allowing a run.There are eight names, so we’re already past 13 arms. Here are a few more:DJ Baxendale - He has been a starter most of his minor league career, but with a low-90s fastball and a good slider, he could be a solid bullpen option going forward.Michael Cederoth - Though the Twins had the hard-thrower starting in 2014 and 2015, he could move back to the bullpen. In college he pitched in relief and topped 100 on occasions. In the bullpen, he could move quickly.Alex Wimmers - The former first-round pick has been OK in the bullpen. He can become a minor league free agent following the 2016 season if he’s not on the 40 man roster, so I expect he’ll go to AAA and then we’ll see.Cole Johnson - like AJ Achter, Cole Johnson was drafted in a round that no longer exists, but he has moved up the system and got to AAA in 2015.Brett Lee - Another guy who has started through his career. He’s a low strikeout guy as a starter, but his stuff is good, so maybe in a bullpen role, he could thrive.Alex Muren - a ground ball machine, Muren spent some time in Chattanooga in 2015. He was said to be consistently in the mid-90s in 2015.So, as you’re reading those names, you can judge for yourself the level of likelihood that each is going to be ready to contribute to the Twins by mid-2017. Some are probably 90% likely. Others may be closer to 10% But I think that Radcliff’s comment that there are 13 guys who could be ready by mid-2017 is more than fair. And, I chose not to include JO Berrios, Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonsalves, Randy Rosario, Fernando Romero, Aaron Slegers, Kohl Stewart and Lewis Thorpe would all remain starters for the next two years. And that brings us back to Bastardo and the Twins willingness to go one year on him or any other reliever. In my mind, it makes sense to offer him the one year. In fact, I’d be fine with offering him more for that one year just to stay away from a multi-year deal. So, what do you think? Be sure to follow Doogie Wolfson on Twitter and listen to his podcast, The Scoops, on the 1500 ESPN network. Click here to view the article

Terry Ryan and a large contingent of Minnesota Twins front office personnel are gathered in Nashville for the Winter Meetings. The goal for Ryan, and for every team, is to make his team better. We have written and discussed the topic ad nauseum in the Twins Daily pages since the end of the season. Some young Twins players will play a role in the Twins bullpen at some point in the near future. Today, I want to discuss two pitchers who I think could be prominent bullpen contributors right from the beginning of the 2016 season. There are going to be some difficult decisions next spring for Manager Paul Molitor in his second season and the helm. There are always tough decisions, but Molitor will have a lot of really quality options. When the team has needs in-season, they will have good options for replacement. You all have heard the names that some choose to joke about as getting starts in the last five years. There were three or four starting pitchers and a couple of bullpen arms at Rochester in 2015 who would have been called up quickly had this been 2012 or 2013.This isn’t 2011 through 2014 anymore. In 2015, the Twins won 83 games and were not eliminated until their 161st game. It’s about winning now while at the same time doing what’s best for the players, short-term and long-term. Let’s discuss a couple of the young pitchers and where they should fit in 2016. Trevor May May came up in the second half of 2014 and went through some struggles. In 2015, he was set to start the season in Rochester, but Ervin Santana’s suspension pushed him into the starting rotation. May pitched all right as a starter. In 16 starts (83.1 IP), he went 4-8 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. The Twins made the decision that he would move to the bullpen in the second half when Tommy Milone returned to the team from AAA. In 32 games (31.1 IP) out of the bullpen, he was 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA, and a 1.21 WHIP. His fastball velocity increased noticeably when he knew that he just needed to go an inning or two. When May was moved to the bullpen, Ryan and Molitor said that he would go to spring training in 2016 with an opportunity to start again. They have stood by that as he will go to spring training with a chance. With Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson marked in ink, and May competing with Tommy Milone, Tyler Duffey, JO Berrios and others for two rotation spots, May will have to be really good during spring to be in the rotation. Prediction: He will be in the bullpen. With a back end of the bullpen having Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen and May, that portion of the pen should be quite strong. In fact, we saw how strong it could be when Perkins was healthy. Taylor Rogers Rogers has been a starter all his life, in high school in Colorado, in college at Kentucky and all through his minor league career since being drafted in 2012. He was the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year in 2013. He’s been good the last two years as well. He was recently added to the Twins 40-man roster and worked 202 innings this year between Rochester and the Arizona Fall League. As a left-handed pitcher, he has two really good pitches against same-siders. While right-handers hit .326/.374/.457 (.831) with 28 doubles, four triples and nine home runs off him in AAA this year, he dominated left-handers. They hit just .177/.209/.193 (402) off of him. He gave up just three extra-base hits, all doubles. Reports I’ve gathered say that he has a good fastball (low-90s) and a tremendous slider. In fact, some have compared Rogers’ slider to Tyler Duffey’s curve ball. While Duffey has a fastball, curve ball and solid changeup, Rogers has not been able to turn his change into a pitch that can get right-handers off balance. If he could, he might be a mid-rotation starter, but most believe he can be a back-of-the-rotation starter, or even better out of the bullpen. Prediction: The Twins have six of seven starters ahead of Rogers, and we all know that JO Berrios is coming soon. Rogers turns 25 next week and could be a major contributor out of the Twins bullpen. In fact, Terry Ryan said Monday afternoon that Rogers would go to spring training competing for a bullpen job. They could send him back to Rochester and hope that his changeup develops so that he can be a fifth starter, or they could utilize him right away as a solid lefty reliever. Names like Tony Sipp or Antonio Bastardo might (emphasis on might) provide stability from the left side for three years, or at least parts of those three years. They’re the big names of the offseason. I have no problem with ponying up to add one name reliever that the organization feels can hold up. However, rather than bringing back middling lefties like Neal Cotts or Brian Duensing, I would recommend giving Rogers a shot. Maybe they give him a month of two in Rochester to get used to working out of the bullpen and start the season with Ryan O’Rourke or Logan Darnell (who could also work in long relief). But at some point, Rogers should be in the Twins bullpen. What does that leave the Twins with? Closer: Glen Perkins RH RP: Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, LH RP: Free Agent LHP Two Of: Casey Fien (non-guaranteed contract), Michael Tonkin (out of options), Ryan Pressly, Alex Meyer, Ryan O’Rourke, or a second quality free agent. Long Relief: Logan Darnell And Taylor Rogers should be up soon, if not on the Opening Day roster. By May, we could see Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi and JT Chargois. That’s why I wouldn’t go out and acquire more than one reliever on a multi-year deal. From Nick’s article today, there are three relievers worth focusing on, in my opinion, Antonio Bastardo, Tony Sipp and Shawn Kelley. Don’t waste time on the others. Trust guys like Taylor Rogers, let them take off in their own careers and hopefully help the Twins move up to the next level. How do you think this all unfolds? Click here to view the article