rydley
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rydley reacted to RandBalls Stu for an article, Twins Announce Best Efforts and Pile of Spreadsheets as Opening Day ShortstopCarlos Correa’s departure for San Francisco leaves the Minnesota Twins with a gaping hole at shortstop. While rumored to be interested in free agent Dansby Swanson, the team announced a different plan on Thursday.
“We made our best efforts to keep Carlos in Minnesota,” said Twins GM Derek Falvey. “Sometimes, that’s all you can do. And we’re taking that lesson to heart. Best Efforts will be our shortstop in 2023.”
The concept of trying your best and failing to reach your objective is nothing new in baseball or American sport. However, no one has attempted to use an intangible state of being as a position player. Not even the Orioles.
“We’ve got some spreadsheets, some pivot tables, and one of those green visors that crooked bankers wore during the Great Depression,” said Falvey. “Proof of our good-faith attempts at bringing a championship to Target Field will be available for all to see at one of the game’s premium positions. Good intentions and due financial diligence are a killer combo anywhere in the lineup.”
That quote was part of a rambling, handwritten press release on official Minnesota Twins letterhead. MINNESOTA MAKES CARLOS CORREA TWIN FOR LIFE is visible under hastily applied liquid paper. Stains from coffee and human tears are also visible on the paragraph where Falvey notes that the team, which finished 78-84 in a disappointing 2022 season, would be giving We Tried a shot in the bullpen.
“We have a lot of young arm talent that we’ll be looking at in Fort Myers,” said Falvey. “We Tried will be part of that mix, along with Part Of The Conversation and On The Shortlist.”
The statement does not mention what, if any, plans there are for Blockbuster Trade That Fizzled and Punching Above Their Weight But Ultimately Falling Just Short.
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rydley reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, A Logical Trade Partner for the Twins and Max KeplerThe 2022 season was a characteristic one for Max Kepler: solid yet underwhelming. He was a fairly valuable overall player, posting 2.0 fWAR thanks primarily to his elite defense in right field. His offense, as usual, was suppressed by a debilitatingly low BABIP as opposing defenses suffocated him with the shift.
There's encouraging news on that front, which could enhance Kepler's marketability. But more on that shortly. The bottom line is that, even if his luster has largely worn off in the eyes of Twins fans, Kepler IS a quality asset with appeal to many contending teams in need of a lefty corner outfield bat.
There are several such clubs, and one of the best ways to identify them is by following who is pursuing (and missing out on) free agents that share the same profile.
Among them: the Seattle Mariners.
There are a few different reasons the Mariners stand out to me as a logical trade partner for the Twins and Kepler. The first is that their general manager is Jerry Dipoto, one of the most prolific wheelers and dealers on the GM circuit. Trade speculation is always valid when Jerry's involved.
Seattle's specific situation also frames them as a practical landing spot for Kepler. The M's got horrible production from both outfield corners in 2022, and it was one of the biggest flaws on a 90-win team that made the playoffs but couldn't push deep.
Mitch Haniger's injury-plagued year put right field in limbo for Seattle, while Jesse Winker was a defensive disaster and mediocre bat in left. Haniger's now gone, with Teoscar Hernandez acquired from Toronto to replace his powerful right-handed bat. It still seems as though Dipoto and Seattle are still seeking another lefty-hitting outfielder to complement Hernandez and Julio Rodriguez, as illustrated by their reported pursuit of Brandon Nimmo (who re-signed with the Mets) and Andrew Benintendi.
The Mariners are looking for assurance and Kepler offers it. He's been worth two or more Wins Above Replacement in every full season of his career. Entering his age-30 season, he's a safe bet to at least be a solid fixture and a big upgrade over what the Mariners had last year. The new defensive shifting limitations, along with the outfielder's stellar Statcast measurables, could hint at legitimate upside.
Kepler's contract situation – one more guaranteed season at $8.5 million with a 2024 team option at $10 million – is part of what I see as making him attractive to Seattle specifically. They have a pair of top prospects who happen to be lefty-swinging outfielders: Jarred Kelenic (23) and Taylor Trammell (25). Both have struggled to turn the corner in the majors, but its too early to give up on either.
And by following this route, the Mariners wouldn't need to. The flexible control over Kepler's next two seasons enables Seattle to keep the door open for both, while gaining reliable veteran stability as they push to take the next step in the interim.
From Minnesota's perspective, what makes Seattle an intriguing partner is their abundance of young pitching. In addition to veteran stalwarts Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales, as well as deadline acquisition Luis Castillo, the Mariners had three different pitchers 27 and under in 2022 who made 25+ starts with an ERA of 3.73 or lower (George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Chris Flexen).
Kirby or Gilbert would likely not be on the table unless Minnesota offered significantly more than Kepler. But Flexen seems attainable, if not one of Seattle's many relief arms or mid-tier prospects.
What do you think? Which teams strike you as the best trade partners for Kepler, and what would a realistic return look like?