BuxtonBandwagon

Hello all,
 
It is a great time of the year to be a baseball rumor junkie and (finally) a Twins fan. In last years blueprint forum I advocated a complete teardown in trading both Dozier and Santana. This year I am advocating for just the opposite. I think the Twins are entering year 1 of a 5-year window to truly contend. I say 5 years because that is one year longer than the Twins have team control over key players such as Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, and Buddy Boshers (Kidding). I extend this by 1 year because I think there are relatively easy ways the Twins can extend this window via extensions and just having a more competent front office and development process. Ideally, Falvey and Levine will be able to build a sustainable pipeline of talent so that the Twins can pick and choose key guys they wish to extend and supplement them with young talent like Royce Lewis, Blayne Enlow, etc.. However, we know the reality of a non-big market team often means rebuilding becomes necessary to generating a potential championship level team. So the Twins need to start operating as if they have a 5 year window that starts now. Admittedly, I am more aggressive in this blueprint compared to what I believe Falvey and Levine actually will be, but I don’t think any of it is too far outside of the box.
 
Moves that already happened
 
Sign Paul Molitor to a 3-year extension: I expected this to happen and am glad that he will return. I know there was some controversy over his bunting habits and maybe even his bullpen usage but I thought those are minor discrepancies that don’t rub me in the wrong way. Overall he is very receptive of new information, appears to have the respect of the clubhouse, and has an excellent working relationship with Falvey and Levine. All are very important aspects in a modern baseball manager. Worst comes to worst, the Twins would have no problem eating a couple of million dollars if they want to go another direction before the contract expires.
 
Not Retain Neil Allen: I would assume that at least part of the holdup on the Molitor announcement was some back and forth on the future of Neil Allen. Sounded like Molitor wanted Neil Allen back, but it is hard to justify him deserving to come back based on the pitching accomplishments over the past 3 seasons. It is impossible to quantify the effect a pitching coach has on a staff but it think it is safe to say it was time for a new voice in this area for the Twins.
 
Declining LHP Glen Perkins Team Option and Paying his $700,000 Buyout: This was seen as a given and was an obvious move for the Twins. Perk made excellent progress to even pitch this season. I don’t know if this is the end of his baseball career, but based on his emotions after his last game this season, it certainly is a possibility. I hope he has a future in some capacity with the organization as he seems to be very smart and likeable. Maybe they can even bring him back on a minor league deal. Thanks for everything Perk!
 
Releasing/Outrighting C Anthony Recker: I’m a bit confused on this one. I remember I looked a couple of weeks ago and so him on the 40 man roster and thought “what the hell?”. I now see that he refused assignment to the minors and is a free agent as of October 10th. However, I also see that he was outrighted in late July so not sure if he was even on the 40 man anymore. Either way, he no longer is on the 40 man and that is a good thing.
 
Hiring Garvin Alston as Pitching Coach: I had never heard his name before the hire. I was someone that was all in on the Maddux or Hickey train. I don’t know if either of them even had interest or if Alston was the guy all along. Either way, I give the benefit of the doubt to Falvey and Levine because I think they have earned it based on the hires of Rowson and Pickler last season. They’ve also brought in John Manuel from Baseball America, Daniel Adler from the NFL, and Jeremy Zoll from the Dodgers. All of these hires are very impressive and show that the rest of the baseball community is buying into the future of the Twins. Honestly, if Terry Ryan had made the hire of Garvin Alston I would not have given him the benefit of the doubt, but Falvine have earned our patience and trust thus far.
 
Lost Bench Coach Joe Vavra to the Detroit Tigers: Gardy is getting the old band back together in Detroit!! Best of luck to Joe, but I have a feeling the Twins will be fine with out him.
 
Outrighting Niko Goodrum: I’m not sure he is a big leaguer. One of those guys that didn’t progress through the system as hoped. He was a given to be removed from the 40 man.
 
Lost Randy Rosario & Daniel Palka on Waivers: Both of these guys were borderline 40 man roster candidates and that in and of itself diminishes any trade value they might have had. It would have been nice to sneak them through waivers, but I didn’t expect that to happen. If it did, both would have been strong candidates to be lost in the Rule 5 draft anyways.
 
Lost Nik Turley on Waivers: Never has had a long term future with the club
 
Outrighting Chris Gimenez: In my initial blueprint, I had the Twins tendering him and starting the season with him on the 25 man roster. But I do get the move. Gimenez appears to be a great guy and was an above average backup catcher last season. Wish him nothing but the best and I’m sure most Twins fans feel the same.
 
Outrighting Ryan O’Rourke: O’Rourke is another player that I initially kept on my 40 man roster, although not the opening day 25 man roster. I thought that he would be kept around and given another chance as a loogie. But again, I get the move and am not all that upset, especially if the Twins feel they can add and better utilize his 40 man spot and maybe keep him on a minor league deal.
 
Hire Bench Coach Derek Shelton: I don’t know anything about him besides his background, but Falvey and Levine again will get my trust on this.
 
Future Predictions
 
(Where the Fun Starts)
 
40 Man Removals:
The Twins had 45 guys that would fall on the 40 man roster at the end of the season. This includes the guys they have on the 60 DL that will need to either be added to the 40 man, passed through waivers, or removed from the Organization all together.
 
Glen Perkins & Bartolo Colon Retire: I addressed Perkins already, but I do believe that both him and Bartolo will retire. Bartolo has said he would like to pitch, and if he does that is great, just not with the Twins. I thought it was very fun having Bartolo around and he was deserving of being in the 2017 Twins rotation. 45 year old Bartolo Colon should not sniff the field for the Twins in 2018.
 
Dillon Gee & Hector Santiago Depart Via Free Agency: Santiago is all but gone at this point. After a great April, he was awful and then was hurt. Seems like a nice enough guy, but him signing with a different teams would be best for both parties. I thought Gee pitched well for the Twins, but the Twins should look to upgrade there bullpen and hopefully fill it out with the young talent we’ve heard about for 3 years that they have coming. If they swing and miss in Free Agency, I could see them circling back on Gee, but that means a couple of things went wrong.
 
Waive / DFA / Outright the Following Players (I can’t remember what means what):
 
Buddy Boshers: Been used as a lefty because of a lack of options elsewhere in the organization. That should change with likely one free agent lefty coming in, and Tyler Jay ascending.
Michael Tonkin: It has already happened to him once this year, seems inevitable.
Phil Hughes: He is a sunk cost and I would have no problem cutting bait. No team will claim him and his contract, so why waste a 40 man spot on him? You could always keep him, put him on the DL to start the season, then add him back to the 40 man when ready. This front office is keen on roster manipulation and DFA’ing Phil Hughes would allow for the Twins to protect one extra player from the Rule 5 Draft.
 
Arbitration:
Salaries are from MLB Trade Rumors Projections**
 
3B/SS/2B Eduardo Escobar – Tender @ $4.9 M. Escobar is the easiest decision in arbitration. He has proven two separate times that he is more than capable of stepping in as an everyday player if needed. Plus, we’ve learned that he is much better defensively at third base than he was at shortstop. Sano is headed towards surgery, and Eduardo Escobar provides excellent insurance at that position and can also play shortstop and second base if needed. He is another great clubhouse guy that gives a team excellent production as a utility infielder.
 
SP Kyle Gibson – Tender @ $5.3 M. In July it looked like there was 0 chance Gibson would be back in 2018. Now, at the very least the Twins have to tender him as he has become an asset with some value. I’m perfectly fine with the team going in with him as the 5th starter or even trying him out in a bullpen role. However, my number 1 choice would be to shop Kyle Gibson and see if you can sell somewhat high on him. He has two years of arbitration left. In the second half Gibson had an ERA of 3.76, an xFIP of 3.63, and 8.22 K/9. His strong numbers were actually backed up by strong peripherals, which could mean that he has turned a corner and is just a late bloomer. I think it is more likely that he pitched a little over his head in the second half and the Twins would be wise to see what value he has.
 
SS/2B/LF – Ehire Adrianza – Tender @ $1.0 M. Adrianza was an excellent find by Falvey and Levine. Only 5 years removed from being a top 5 prospect in a strong Giants system, Adrianza is a plus defender with a lot of versatility. He also proved he can hit last season. He is a no brainer for the Twins at $1 Million and they are fortunate to have him under control for the next 3 seasons.
 
RP Ryan Pressly – Tender @ $1.6 M. Like Gibson, Pressly is another guy that saved his 2018 spot by a strong second half in 2017. Looking at the direction of the bullpen, there likely will only be room for 1 of him and Duffey, and while Duffey was unusable down the stretch, Pressly looked like he was back in peak form. I think you have to bring him back at $1.6 Million and hope his second half carries over into 2018. If it doesn’t, the Twins can always cut bait midseason at that low of a number.
 
OF/DH Robbie Grossman – Tender @ $2.4 M & Trade. Grossman might not have a spot on the 2018 Twins, but I still think they have to tender him because he is enough of an asset that they shouldn’t just let him walk away. If the Twins can find a trade match, I think that they will definitely do it, or else he should be back as a bench bat.
 
SP Trevor May – Tender @ $0.6 M. There is a lot of unknown here with May coming off of Tommy John Surgery. But all signs point to him competing for a rotation spot again and I know that Twins fans are very curious to see him get a chance in the rotation again. If he can regain his 2015 form, he should be a solid #3 or #4 starter. May isn’t really all that interesting for a tender vs. non-tender perspective as he is a lock at this low of a number, but he is very interesting from the standpoint of potential role and production come 2018.
Trades:
Trade Kennys Vargas Rights to Korea: I’ve heard rumors about this and more likely than not Vargas is not back with the Twins next season. I’m not sure exactly how this type of thing works, but Korea could be a logical path for Vargas. If he has any value on the trade market, I’d like to see the Twins explore that path as well.
 
Trade SS/2B Nick Gordon, RHP Felix Jorge, RHP Kohl Stewart, and OF LaMonte Wade to the Pirates for SP Gerrit Cole: Honestly I have no clue if this would be enough to get Gerrit Cole from Pittsburgh. I guess there is truly no way of knowing because we don’t know what the market will dictate. Sometimes I feel as if this is a lot to give up for two years of Cole, and other times I feel like it wouldn’t be enough. So I go back and forth. What I do know is that the Twins should seriously consider acquiring Gerrit Cole or Chris Archer. I would think that Nick Gordon would be an appropriate headliner for either deal, and there is enough potential in Wade, Jorge, and Stewart that I think that alone is an enticing package. The Twins will not (and should not) be offering 7 years and $150 million for Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta. So the only ways they are going to truly bolster the rotation is via development and trades. This would still leave Romero and Gonsalves knocking on the doors, and give the Twins a legitimate looking rotation that could contend.
Would this be enough to get Cole? Would you do it or does it shorten the Twins window too much? Interested to hear your thoughts
 
Trade OF/DH Robbie Grossman & RHP Tyler Duffey to the Rays for LHP Resly Linares: I don’t know how much value Grossman and Duffey have on the market. I would likely tender Grossman, but shop him to see if we could get something for him. When it comes to Duffey, there is no way that both him and Pressly are back for the Twins. They would just be taking up spots that could be better occupied by guys like Reed, Jay, Burdi, etc. I think Pressly played his way into one more shot while Duffey played his way out of one. On the flip side, both Duffey and Grossman have had success as big leaguers for the Twins. Duffey was the Twins best starter during the playoff push of 2015 and Grossman has been a competent player that gets on base at a very high clip. I would guess if either is traded, it would be for young lottery type pitching. Linares is an intriguing lefty prospect in the Rays system who is not super highly regarded, but could be a lottery ticket type of guy. And hey, Robbie hit a homer in Tampa this year so maybe they like him. Yes I am grasping at straws as people rarely report on Robbie Grossman steam. Long story short, I don’t see Duffey and Grossman back, but I wouldn’t just give both of them away.
Free Agency Signings:
Resign RP Matt Belisle to a 1 year, $4 million contract: I would be fine with Matt Belisle coming back as the teams 4th or 5th reliever next season. He was very good down the stretch and apparently had a good impact behind the scenes. That being said, if someone offers him 2 years and $10 million, I tell him thank you for everything he did and good luck. But if the Twins can get him on a 1 year, $3 to 5 million deal, I think he is worth bringing back, but not a top priority.
 
Sign RP Wade Davis to a 5 year, $77 million contract: I know this would be very Un-Twins like. But I think they at least need to look into make a run at Wade Davis. They could probably get him right at $15 a year if you are willing to throw in a 5th year (Age 36 Season). I do it if it stays under 5 and $80. If the market inflates over that, I back away. Making a large investment in an elite reliever is a much better use of $15 million than continually signing the Ricky Nolasco’s and Phil Hughes of the world. Davis would not block anyone in the bullpen, and he automatically gives the Twins a lockdown anchor that they would need for the foreseeable future. If the last couple of postseasons have taught us anything, it is that a lockdown relief pitcher is a necessity now (See Chapman, Miller, Davis circa 2015, Jansen, etc.) to compete in the postseason. The Twins have a few darts like Jay, Burdi, and Reed that could hit the big leagues soon, but they are all far from a sure thing and why not add one guy who is exactly that for the next 5 years that the Twins plan to compete?
 
Sign RP Jake McGee to a 3 Year, $18 million contract: This move, or a move like this, will almost certainly happen for the Twins this offseason. They will likely find someone in the Addison Reed, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw category of 7th to 8th inning guys and give them 3 years at $5 to $8 million a year. I like McGee in part because he is a lefty, and the Twins have been extra thin there. McGee also has had a consistent track record and tends to fly under the national spotlight. This is another spot where the market could dictate who the Twins turn too, but expect a move of this ilk this no matter what else they do.
 
Sign OF/DH Jose Bautista to a 1 Year, $6 million contract: Let’s finally get Joey Bats to Target Field in a home uniform. While there is evidence that he might in fact be cooked, to me he would be worth a flier to see if he could stick at DH. Bautista solves a couple of problems for the Twins in a potential low risk, high reward deal. The Twins could stand to add a right handed bat and a DH who mashes. The worst that could happen is Bautista hits .190 in April in May and the Twins DFA him and cut their losses. However, if Bautista somehow finds his groove again, the Twins lineup could look extra deadly. Plus, Bautista won’t need to hit cleanup and he’d likely be the 6 or 7 hitter. If Bautista somehow can land a deal for $12 to $15 million, then the Twins can shut down my long-time dream. There are a lot of guys that could come in with a similar role as this like Napoli, Mark Reynolds, Lucas Duda, etc.
 
40 Man Roster Additions:
1B Lewin Diaz
LHP Stephen Gonsalves
RHP Zack Littell
LHP Lewis Thorpe
RHP Nick Burdi
RHP Jake Reed
RHP Luke Bard
LHP Mason Melotakis
 
Gonsalves, Diaz, Littell, and Thorpe are all legitimate prospects with a lot of value that are virtual locks to be added. I think Bard, Reed, and Burdi would all get selected in the rule 5 draft. All 3 could contribute to the Twins in 2018. I’m admittedly higher on Burdi than most still are, because I think the ceiling could be ridiculous. But it would be extremely easy for a team to hide him this year as he returns from Tommy John surgery. They could just stash him on the DL, and not have to return him to the Twins. I am not giving up on Burdi until after we see him pitch in a Twins uniform. Unfortunately, that might be late 2018 at the earliest. I am a bit surprised we didn’t see both Reed and Bard in 2017 with all the relievers the Twins went through. Like Burdi, I would like to see them as major league options for 2018. Reed and Bard throw mid 90’s, while Burdi throws in the upper 90’s. All have a strong track record of missing bats (Although Reed doesn’t have the powerful K numbers of the other two). These are the types of guys the Twins will want to keep around and build a future bullpen off of. I would also add Melotakis to round out the 40 man. He should get a shot at some point, and I’m giving him the nod over Buddy Boshers for now.
 
Opening Day 25 Man Roster
Rotation
RHP Gerrit Cole - $7.5 M
RHP Jose Berrios - $0.55 M
RHP Ervin Santana - $13.5 M
RHP Kyle Gibson - $5.3M
RHP Trevor May - $0.6 M
Total: $27.45 M
 
Bullpen
RHP Wade Davis - $15.4 M
LHP Jake McGee - $6.0 M
RHP Trevor Hildenberger - $0.55 M
LHP Taylor Rogers - $0.55 M
RHP Matt Belisle - $4.0 M
RHP Ryan Pressly - $1.6 M
RHP Alan Busenitz - $0.55 M
Total: $28.65 M
 
Lineup
1 CF Byron Buxton - $0.56 M
2 1B Joe Mauer - $23.0 M
3 2B Brian Dozier - $9.0 M
4 3B Miguel Sano - $0.6 M
5 LF Eddie Rosario - $0.58 M
6 SS Jorge Polanco - $0.55 M
7 DH Jose Bautista - $6.0 M
8 RF Max Kepler - $0.55 M
9 C Jason Castro - $8.5 M
Total: $49.34 M
 
Bench
C/1B/LF Mitch Garver - $0.55 M
SS/2B/LF Ehire Adrianza - $1.0 M
3B/2B/SS Eduardo Escobar - $4.9 M
OF Zack Granite - $0.55 M
Total: $7.00 M
 
Other
SP Phil Hughes - $13.2 M
1B Byung Ho Park - $3.0 M
Total: $16.2 M
 
Total Salary for Opening Day 25 Man Roster: $128.72 M
 
I really don’t think that $129 M in payroll is some absurd unreachable number for the Twins, especially with potentially $50 M coming off next offseason. $129 M is under the average salary in baseball and would have ranked 17th in major league baseball last season. Not ridiculous or out of the question for a mid market team like the Twins, and they are not committed to big money long-term deals to anyone besides Wade Davis
 
Remaining 40 Man Roster
LHP Adalberto Mejia
LHP Stephen Gonsalves
LHP Dietrich Enns
RHP Aaron Slegers
LHP Gabriel Moya
LHP Lewis Thorpe
RHP Fernando Romero
RHP John Curtiss
RHP Nick Burdi
RHP Luke Bard
RHP Zack Littell
LHP Mason Melotakis
RHP Jake Reed
RHP J.T. Chargois
1B Lewin Diaz
 
A lot of pitchers, I know. I don’t see a ton of position players in the system that the Twins need to add to the 40 man and protect. I think at some point there will be another move to add a couple of position players early in the season.
 
Top Prospects Going into the season / 2018 Starting Level / ETA
1. SS Royce Lewis – A – 2020
2. LHP Stephen Gonsalves – AAA – 2018
3. RHP Fernando Romero – AAA – 2018
4. 1B/OF Brent Rooker – A+ – 2019
5. SS Wander Javier – Rk – 2021
6. OF Alex Kirilloff – Rk – 2020
7. RHP Blayne Enlow – Rk – 2021
8. 1B Lewin Diaz – A+ – 2019
9. LHP Tyler Jay – AAA – 2018
10. RHP Brusdar Graterol – Rk – 2021
 
 
2018 Next guys called up Pecking order / ETA
 
1. LHP Adalberto Mejia: Mejia has almost a full year of MLB experience under his belt now. At times it was clear that he was not ready for it yet, but all and all had a lot of positives in his rookie season. Under my projected roster, they wouldn’t have a roster spot for Mejia, and that is okay. There is nothing wrong with Mejia getting more seasoning in Rochester and then coming back to the big leagues at some point during the season. They second the Twins need a spot start, an injury to a pitcher occurs, or the bullpen gets overused, Mejia will be the first call up.
ETA: April
 
2. RHP John Curtiss: Saw limited action last season, but if he continues to pitch well as the closer in Rochester, he will inevitably bang on the door of the bullpen at Target Field.
ETA: April
 
3. RHP J.T. Chargois: He would be higher up if I knew what was going on with this injury he has. I hope for his sake he is able to get healthy because he certainly has the stuff to be part of the future of the Twins bullpen.
ETA: May
 
4. LHP Stephen Gonsalves: This will depend on two things:
1. How well Gonsalves pitches in AAA to begin the season. He pitched alright there to finish 2017, but one horrendous outing has skewed his end numbers.
2. What ends up happening with the Twins rotation. This will determine when an opportunity is available. There are many unknowns in the rotation, and my guess is that the front office has a process mapped out of when they want Gonsalves to be in the MLB.
I see Gonsalves pitching in the rotation by the midway point of the season.
ETA: June
 
5. RHP Jake Reed: Reed has had an excellent minor league track record outside of 2015 in Chattanooga where he struggled in his promotion. He doesn’t necessarily have as high of a ceiling as Jay and Burdi, but he might be the safer bet and deserves a chance.
ETA: June
 
6. RHP Nick Burdi: I feel like this is the third year in a row that I’ve predicted Nick Burdi will be a Twin by July. I should probably stop doing that. Admittedly, I’m not too sure on the timeline of his Tommy John Surgery. Of course he will need to throw well in the minors, and also come back from the surgery well to be in a position to be with the team this season. I could be overly optimistic on Burdi, as I’ve been known to be in the past. I could also be completely wrong about a realistic timeline in the return from Tommy John Surgery. I am very optimistic about his ceiling and potential, and just hope he can stay healthy for a couple of years to continue to develop.
ETA: July
 
7. LHP Dietrich Enns: Enns had a cup of coffee with the Twins last season in Milwaukee. It was a short start, but didn’t go horribly, just a high pitch count. He’ll be 27 in May, so it would be logical to think that this will be the year that the Twins want to see what they have with him over an extended period, and if he is worth a 40 man spot next season. I don’t have deep knowledge of his stuff, but I would think his ceiling is a #5 starter or a good 6th to 7th inning guy.
ETA: July
 
8. RHP Luke Bard: I’m very curious about Bard. I know he was a comp round A pick in 2012 and was set back by injuries. What is so impressive about him is his massive jump in strikeouts with 99 in 65.1 innings between AA and AAA this last season. Could this be that he has figured something out? I think it is worth finding out. He certainly was drafted in a high position with potential.
ETA: August
 
9. LHP Tyler Jay: He was the number 5 pick just two and a half years ago, and his stock has dipped because of his move to the bullpen. But he has a chance to be a very good reliever one day and it would be a lot of fun to see him come on strong again this year and play his way into the Twins bullpen down the stretch. He was promising in the fall league at times, but his numbers are skewed by two very bad outings. Like I have been with Burdi, I might be too optimistic by saying he has a chance to be a part of the bullpen for the stretch run in 2018, but he will be 24 in April and provided he stays healthy, should progress nicely in the minor leagues.
ETA: September
 
10. RHP Fernando Romero: Romero will be 23 and looks to have conquered AA. It will be interesting to see how he fairs in AAA this season. If he performs well, we could see him by mid summer. Out of all the Twins pitchers in the system, he probably has the most ace type stuff. I think we see him at some point in 2018, but to be safe I am saying he is a September call-up.
ETA: September
 
We will also likely see the following players at some point in 2018:
LHP Mason Melotakis, RHP Aaron Slegers, LHP Gabriel Moya, RHP Phil Hughes, and DH/1B Byung Ho Park
Moves I didn’t make but would explore:
Trade for Kelvin Herrera: In my very first blueprint, I have the Twins trading for Kelvin Herrera. However, I ended up taking it off because there is so much uncertainty there. How is his forearm? He seemed to struggle down the stretch (especially against the Twins). What would it take to get Herrera? On one hand, I would think he would require a pretty good return based on his track record over the years. But he is also a one year rental due $8 million and an injury concern. Would the Royals take a Brandon Kintzler return type prospect plus a Kennys Vargas for him? Or would they aim higher? Could they want to hold onto him to reestablish some of his value and then shop him at the deadline? It is also tough with the Royals being in the division. Overall, I am just way too uncertain about the return he would command, and it would take away $8 million of spending money for the Twins. But hey, they paid Hector Santiago $8 million last season and nobody seemed to care. Bottom line: I would like to see the Twins explore the reliever trade market this offseason, and Herrera could be a candidate if the demand isn’t too high and the Royals are fully ready to rebuild and cut money.
 
Extensions, Extensions, Extensions: I also am pretty unsure on what fair value is on these extensions, but I would explore them on many guys. I found it really interesting the extensions that Seth posted in his offseason blueprint. I remember thinking that I would do every one of those. I don’t think it is realistic that they are able to get them all done. But a doing a couple of them would be nice, specifically because they could extend there window beyond the 4 years they have of team control with there most crucial pieces. Buxton, Sano, and Berrios would be at the top of the list for me in this process. I think Buxton being the top priority would be pretty commonly agreed upon by Twins fans. Berrios is unique because he does have 5 years of team control left, so the deal would likely be for 7 or 8 years, which would be a lot of term for a young pitcher. I would still approach his representatives about it. The next tier would be Kepler, Rosario, and Polanco. Polanco also has 5 years, and I think there is a lot of uncertainty still surrounding him. I don’t think after the next 3 years he is the shortstop anymore, and he may end of being a trade chip somewhere down the road. Rosario has proven to be unreliable at times but an MVP caliber player at other times. We still aren’t sure if Kepler will be more than a platoon type player. So there is certainly risk involved, but I would consider all three of those guys because in order for the Twins to be a championship contender someday, the secondary guys will have to be solid contributors as well. In a separate category I put both Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer. The Twins would be smart to explore both trading Dozier and extending him. If the Twins can get him slightly below market value for 4 more years ($60 million or so), they should. But I also feel comfortable going into the season with him, and extending him the qualifying offer next season knowing that Polanco, Javier, Lewis, (and Gordon if my trade doesn’t work out) are all going to factor into the infield equation someday. In terms of Joe Mauer, maybe they offer him a 2 year team friendly extension, but I might be more inclined to wait on that with Brent Rooker waiting in the wings and Sano’s potentially switch to first base at some point.
 
Trade Questions - Explore the Trade Value on Anyone Not Named Buxton, Sano, or Berrios
- Is there a team that will give up a ton for one year of Brian Dozier?
- Can Nick Gordon be the center of a deal to land an ace? (See above trade)
- Could either Polanco or Rosario be used to upgrade pitching, and then be replaced via free agency?
- Do you sell high on Eduardo Escobar or Kyle Gibson for bullpen help or young pitching?
- Can Robbie Grossman or Kennys Vargas net a lottery ticket pitcher? (See above trade)
- Does Ervin Santana garner a younger, higher ceiling pitcher that is major league ready?
- Are there any prospects that another team values much more than the Twins do?
 
Thank you to anyone who has gotten this far in reading. I’ve been casually working on this blueprint ever since the Twins season ended and have amended it as the early off-season moves have come in. Overall, I think the Twins have a lot of opportunities this offseason and feel more confident than ever that the front office will be active. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they will make a ton of aggressive moves, but I think they will be in the conversation for some guys that the Twins might not have sniffed around in the Terry Ryan regime. It should be a great future, and has been a heck of a turnaround from 12 months ago when I posted a blueprint essentially telling the Twins to tear the whole damn thing down.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
This is the countdown for players ranked 51-55th in the system. You can find players 56-60 here, players 51-55 here, 46-50 here, 41-45 here, 36-40 here, 31-35 here, and all segments in the series here.
 
30. Lewis Thorpe (17)
DOB: 11/23/1995; Age: 21
Positions: LHP
Bats: R, Throws: L
Height: 6'1", Weight: 160 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2015,2016)
ETA: 2019
 
Thorpe was signed on July 12th of 2012 by the Twins to the largest bonus ever given for an Australian player, $500,000. The Melbourne native He has not pitched since September of 2014 resting and rehabilitating his left UCL, which eventually required Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2015. He lost all of 2016 with mononucleosis.
 
Thorpe has 4 pitches, including a plus mid 90s fastball, a plus change up and curveball and an improving slider/cutter. His 2014 season in Cedar Rapids, even before the injury was somewhat of a disappointment compared to his 2013 season in Elizabethton (12 G, 8 GS, 44 IP, 64 K, 13.1 K/9, 38.1 K%, 6 BB, 1.2 BB/9, 34.5 K-BB%, 2.05 ERA, 1.43 FIP, 0.86 WHIP, .319 BABIP), showing considerable control issues (a career high 4.5 BB/9) and was fairly ineffective (4.24 FIP). He was a lefty strikeout pitcher, which means that there is a lot of potential, but losing two seasons has certainly set him back. There are several questions about Thorpe, in addition to the obvious that is how his elbow procedure will impact his stuff: his durability in a game and during the season has been a bit of a concern. A huge question mark right now, thus the drop from 11th in 2015 to 30th now.
 
Likely 2017 path: In the Cedar Rapids rotation, with an outside chance to make the Fort Myers rotation, depending on the elbow and performance
 
29. Lachlan Wells (26)
DOB: 2/27/1997; Age: 19
Positions: LHP
Bats: L, Throws: L
Height: 5'8", Weight: 165 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2015,2016)
ETA: 2019
 
The Twins signed Lachlan Wells as an international free agent from Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia on November 21, 2014 for $400,000. The diminutive Australian made his debut in the Gulf Coast League in 2015. He played in 10 games (9 GS) and pitched 47.3 innings, walking 11 (2.1 BB/9, 20.5 K-BB%) and striking out 49 (9.3 K/9, 26.5% K%) for a 2.09 ERA (3.22 FIP) and 0.97 WHIP (.263 BABIP). Last season he bypassed Elizabethton to play for Cedar Rapids in late June after Extented Spring Training. For the Kernals he made 12 starts for 71-1/3 IP, walking 16 (2.0 BB/9, 16.7 K-BB%) and striking out 63 (8.0 K/9, 16.7% K%) for a 1.77 ERA (3.28 FIP) and 1.02 WHIP (.272 BABIP). Other than the drop in strikeouts, his results have been very similar to his 2015, two levels of competition higher where he was about 3 years younger than the average player, which is encouraging.
 
Size is a concern with 5'8" Wells. He is just 19, but has not grown any more the past 3 seasons. He throws an above average 90-93 mph fastball, a work in progress but solid average curveball and a changeup that is close to plus and is his out pitch. His mechanics and complex delivery is a concern regarding durability. So far his spits against lefties and righties are about similar with only one big difference: He produces much more ground balls against lefties that he does against righties. It could be the more frequent use of the changeup, but it is an interesting data point. The Twins have kept Wells as a starter thus far, but the bullpen might be a more realistic place for him in the future
 
Likely 2017 path: In the Fort Myers rotation
 
28. D.J. Baxendale (--)
DOB: 12/8/1990; Age: 26
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'2", Weight: 190 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 10th round in 2012
Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: AAA (2016)
ETA: 2017
 
D.J. Baxendale was drafted by the Twins in the 10th round of the 2012 draft from the University of Arkansas as a Junior. The Jacksonville, AR native was the Razorbacks' most dependable starter in his senior year starting 20 games, pitching 107 innings, striking out 96 (8.1 K/9) walking 29 (2.4 BB/9) for a 3.11 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He led his team in starts, wins and strikeouts. He continued 2012 as a pro in the pen dominating the Rookie Appalachian League in Elizabethton (6 G, 7-2/3 IP, 16 K, 18.8 K/9, 64.0 K%, 1 BB, 1.1 BB/9, 60 K-BB%, 0.00 ERA, -0.06 FIP, 0.26 WHIP, .125 BABIP) and A Midwest League in Beloit (11 G, 11 IP, 16 K, 12.3 K/9, 33.3 K%, 1 BB, 0.8 BB/9, 31.1 K-BB%, 1.64 ERA, 0.90 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, .414 BABIP,) albeit in relative small samples. The Twins have seen enough of him, including this incredible Spring Training performance that I was lucky to witness and decribe, that they placed him in the A+ Florida State League Fort Myers Miracle rotation, where he pitched like an Ace: (9 GS, 57-1/3 IP, 48 K, 7.5 K/9, 22.4 K%, 11 BB, 2.1 BB/9, 17.3 K-BB%, 1.10 ERA, 0.78 FIP, 0.26 WHIP, .212 BABIP, 7-0 record,) moving to AA New Britain in late May when he suffered an arm injury in his first game pitched and eventually landed on the DL mid-June until the All-Star break. His numbers in New Britain left a lot to be desired (16 GS, 92-2/3 IP, 64 K, 6.2 K/9, 15.7 K%, 22 BB, 2.1 BB/9, 10.3 K-BB%, 5.63 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 1.42 WHIP, .317 BABIP, 5-7 record.) Both his ERA and FIP were bloated because of the 13 HRs he allowed, a sign that he was leaving his Fastball high in the zone, potentially due to his arm issues. Still, in 2013 Baxendale lead the Twins organization in wins and was one of very few Twins prospects to ever make it to AA in their second professional season. 2014 was an even more frustrating season for Baxendale, starting again at AA New Britain where he was placed in the DL in April, was back to Fort Myers in June, making a rehab start for the GCL Twins in August and pitching a few more games for the Miracle in late August. That was a season totally lost in injuries. He pitched a total 90-1/3 innings that season hurt most of the time, and would have been better served rehabilitating his injuries instead of aggravating them. In 2015 the Twins moved their AA team to the Southern League Chattanooga, and Baxendale got the opportunity to pitch closer to home and had a better season (23 G, 21 GS, 118-1/3 IP, 92 K, 7.0 K/9, 17.9 K%, 40 BB, 3.0 BB/9, 10.1 K-BB%, 3.80 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, .317 BABIP) but most importantly a healthy season. Last season he was caught in the numbers and started the season for the 4th year in a row in the AA rotation with results improved from 2015 (14 GS, 81 IP, 59 K, 6.5 K/9, 17.7 K%, 16 BB, 1.8 BB/9, 12.9 K-BB%, 3.44 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, .308 BABIP) but not dramatically. At this point at his age 25 Baxendale looked like organizational depth pitcher, until he moved to the AAA Rochester pen last June, where he excelled. He appeared in 23 games, pitching 35 innings, striking out 40 K (10.3 K/9, 28.4 K%,) and walking 8 (2.1 BB/9, 22.7 K-BB%), finishing with 1.29 ERA, 2.03 FIP, and 1.03 WHIP (.297 BABIP) picking up where he left Fort Myers in 2013. But one cannot ignore 2014 and 2015
 
Baxendale has a 91-92 fastball with great sinking action, which jumps up to 93-94 from the pen. He has a plus slow (low 70s) curve and as a starter has been throwing an above average mid 80s slider/cutter and an average changeup. His command and control is excellent, especially when healthy. If his fastball is down the zone, it is pretty much unhittable. Supplementing it with a plus curveball as an out pitch makes Baxendale a potentially very effective reliever. He is equally effective against both lefties and righties, inducing massive strikeouts to lefties (he struck out 20 of the 58 lefties he faced in Rochester for 38.5 K%), and decent strikeouts (22.5 K%) and ground outs 1.7 GO/AO to righties. A comparable pitcher is current Twins' reliever Brandon Kintzler, but Baxendale will produce more strikeouts and be better against lefties. Health is a consideration here, and Baxendale has to prove that his second half in 2016 was not a mirage.
 
Likely 2017 path: In the Rochester pen and depending on performance in Minnesota by mid-season
 
27. Trevor Hildenberger (--)
DOB: 12/15/1990; Age: 26
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'2", Weight: 211 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 22nd round in 2014
Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: AA (2016)
ETA: 2018
 
Trevor Hildenberger was drafted by the Twins in the 22nd round of the 2014 draft from the University of California Berkeley as a Senior. The San Fransisco area native was Twins' Michael Theofanopoulos roommate and the Golden Bears' closer. In his senior year he appeared in 28 games (47-2/3 IP) striking out 48 (9.1 K/9,) walking 11 (2.1 BB/9) and finishing with 2.83 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 10 saves. He continued his season and started his pro career at the GCL where he was the Twins' closer pitching in 23 games (28 IP), allowing 30 K (9.6, 25.2 K%) and 5 BB (1.6, 21 K-BB%) finishing with 2.57 ERA, 2.40 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP (.317 BABIP), and another 10 saves. He also pitched a single inning that season in Elizabethton striking out 2 hitters and allowing neither hits nor walks. Hildenberger moved to A class Cedar Rapids in the beginning of next season, putting career-best numbers (28 G, 45 IP, 59 K, 11.8 K/9, 35.5 K%, 5 BB, 1.0 BB/9, 32.5 K-BB%, 0.80 ERA, 1.17 FIP, 0.64 WHIP, .238 BABIP, 10 SV). He moved up to A+ Fort Myers on late July pitching also successfully (13 G, 19 IP, 21 K, 10.0 K/9, 29.2 K%, 2 BB, 1.0 BB/9, 26.4 K-BB%, 3.32 ERA, 1.43 FIP, 0.89 WHIP, .313 BABIP, 3 SV). He earned a selection in the Arizona Fall League where he appeared for 8 games. Last season he stayed in Fort Myers for the beginning continuing his success (6 G, 9-1/3 IP, 8 K, 7.7 K/9, 20.5 K%, 0 BB, 0.0 BB/9, 20.5 K-BB%, 0.96 ERA, 1.54 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, .355 BABIP, 3 SV) earning an early promotion to AA Chattanooga in late April. Again, another level for Hildenberger and he did not miss a beat (32 G, 38-2/3 IP, 45 K, 10.5 K/9, 31.3 K%, 6 BB, 1.4 BB/9, 27.1 K-BB%, 0.70 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 0.70 WHIP, .211 BABIP, 3 SV) until his season was ended on July 20 with right elbow tendinitis.
 
Hildenberger has a deceptive low slot delivery. He has a plus fastball with a lot of sink at 91-93 mph. Against righties he throws a very effective frisbee slider, and against lefties a plus change up. Plus plus command and control, he barely walks hitters and can throw all his pitches for strikes despite his funky delivery. He induces 2.5 times ground outs as fly outs against righties. His control and strikeout numbers give him almost elite K-BB% numbers. He has end of the bullpen potential, but, even though his UCL ligament is said to be okay, elbow injuries are always of concern. At 26, he has always been 1-3 years older than the competition at every step of his professional career.
 
Likely 2017 path: Depending on the elbow health, starting at the Chattanooga pen with a promotion to Rochester mid season
 
26. Niko Goodrum (37)
DOB: 2/28/1992; Age: 24
Positions: IF/CF
Bats: S, Throws: R
Height: 6'3", Weight: 198 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round in 2010
Professional Experience: 7; Highest level: AA (2015, 2016)
ETA: 2017
 
Niko Goodrum was drafted by the Twins in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft from Fayette County (GA) High School. It is hard to believe that Goodrum has already spent seven seasons in the Twins' organization and he is just 24 years old, turning 25 during the coming Spring Training. Goodrum was drafted early as a shortstop with five tool potential, but until this past season, other than his speed, he has been somewhat disappointing for a high level draft pick with a $514,800 signing bonus. Other than his glove that was attrocious at SS early in his career and necessitated a move to third base at Fort Myers in 2014, he has not been outright bad, with wRC+ hovering from 97-114 every season, but he did not fulfill the high expectations, and advanced slowly, making two stops at Elizabethton, one at Cedar Rapids, three at Fort Myers and two in Chattanooga. 2016 was an interesting season for Goodrum. He missed the first half with a stress fracture on his foot, but came back and had a breakthrough season. In 6 rehab games at Fort Myers (26 AB), he hit .280/.308/.560 with 149 wRC+ before he moved to Chattanooga where he finished the season with .275/.357/.451, 22 BB and 52 K, in 49 games (207 AB) with a 133 wRC+. He hit 7 HRs and was 9/11 in SB for the season. He stole 29 bases in 2015, but for half season and with a foot fracture, his 2016 total was expected. To get the additional AB, Goodrum played in the Venezuela League, where he hit .284/.354/.431 with 13 BB and 29 K in 116 AB. All in all Goodrum has 349 AB in 2016 with very promising results.
 
Goodrum is a switch hitter that hits equally well from each side of the plate. He played at every infield position and centerfield. As indicated, his defense turned him from a shortstop to a third baseman earlier, but he has proven inadequate in that position. However the last two seasons, his play back at shortstop as well as centerfield, has been above average, reducing his errors by a lot. This positional versatility and a potential sustainability of his success with the bat last season, may indicate that Goodrum might have a major league future as a utility player.
 
Likely 2017 path: Invited to the Twins' spring training with the potential to win a spot depending on performance and whether Dozier will still be with the Twins. Likely at the MLB-level at some point in the season depending on performance and injuries.