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Thiéres Rabelo

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Blog Entries posted by Thiéres Rabelo

  1. Thiéres Rabelo
    We are within the last 24 hours before the trade deadline and the market has been quiet for basically every non-Mets team in MLB. Apparently, this has become a pattern around major league GM’s in recent memory, whether it’s the deadline or offseason free agency. The fact is, none of the contenders has done much so far. What if they don’t?
     
    First of all, this is not what I assume is going to happen. I believe that, eventually, teams willing to win will make their moves. But I’m curious to see what’s going to happen if none of them actually pulls the trigger until tomorrow. Granted, 2019 has one particularity. Most teams are considerably indecisive about being sellers or buyers, as USA Today columnist Bob Nightengale tweeted on Monday:
     
    https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1155904273567211521
     
    Like I said, I strongly believe that contending teams will pull the trigger. But I have to say that I’m starting to be a little bit concerned if the Twins are among those teams. Don’t get me wrong, I really hope this suspicion is completely wrong. But if Derek Falvey and Thad Levine don’t bring in the stars Twins fans are hoping for, it wouldn’t be something never seen before in their regime.
     
    The biggest example that comes to my mind is the last offseason. After bringing in key veterans to power the already good offense in C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop and Marwin Gonzalez, the Twins had basically one urgent matter to address: the bullpen. For us fans, it sounded crazy to think they wouldn’t sign big names in the beginning of the year, especially because they had plenty of payroll room for that.
     
    We all know what happened. The Twins decided to wait and made Blake Parker their one and only big free agent signing for the bullpen. Six months later, they still have the same urgent matter to be addressed. What if they choose to approach it the same way? Chances are very little, but here are three questions I ask about this current deadline for the Twins.
     
    Is this their “all in year”?
    This is an important matter. Is 2019 the ultimate contending year for the Twins? Should they spend top prospects to make the team stronger for this playoff run? One can argue that it isn’t. The Twins already have one of the best young cores in baseball. And that’s talking about MLB-talent, not only about prospects. The best offense in the league has an average age of 27.7. If it wasn’t for Nelson Cruz, it would be 26.9. That’s unbelievably young.
     
    Also, Fangraphs currently ranks the Twins’ farm system as the sixth best in MLB and Minnesota has five players in the Top 100 Prospects in the game. So, would it really be the worst thing in the world if they didn’t commit to winning this year’s World Series? Maybe not. Maybe trusting this young core and let them get post-season experience at this point could make a huge difference in the years to come.
     
    Is this team good enough to win?
    I’ll be straight here and say that I don’t think so. But some people do. In several moments, Minnesota had the best record in baseball and have solidly stayed put within the top four teams in the league. Is it crazy to assume they can pull this? Perhaps no. Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski tweeted yesterday an interesting rank of how many Wins Above Replacement (WAR) each team has outside their top four players. Guess who’s on top?
     
    https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1155913288179441666
     
    Bottom line, Minnesota has a damn good team. They have taken the season series against the Astros earlier in the year and made the Yankees sweat to defeat them. Also, they currently have a 29-24 record against teams with .500 or above. That’s an 88-win pace on a 162-game season. It’s hard to believe, but such inconsistent pitching staff as the Twins’ has been currently has the seventh best ERA and FIP in the game, as well as the fourth most WAR. Like I said, I don’t think this team has what it takes to win it all the way its roster is right now, but I don’t think those who believe that are being unreasonable.
     
    Are there really good options?
    Maybe the biggest concern for all teams considering buying in this deadline is the lack of clear options. One of the Twins main targets, Marcus Stroman, was traded to the Mets during the weekend for an unbelievably cheap price. The Mets also kind of ruled out trading Noah Syndergaard to Minnesota when they asked for Byron Buxton in return, as reported by Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III. In his opinion, “the Twins seem comfortable with their rotation”. And that probably adds up. I mean - and this is an honest question - who do you see in the league now that would represent a considerable leap in quality for the Twins rotation? Should they spend quality prospects to get players who would produce the same as their current starters?
     
    When talking about the bullpen, things are clearly different when we talk about the club’s needs, but no so different when we talk about availability of options. In my opinion, the best option for Minnesota and for any team, for that matter, would be the Pirates’ Felipe Vásquez. But rumors have it that Pittsburgh is asking too much. Is he worth giving two or three top prospects for you? Besides, the Dodgers seem like frontrunners to acquire him. Kirby Yates also looks like a great fit, but the Padres appear to be in buyers mode, as they have inquired the Mets about bringing in “Thor”.
     
    There are other names who could be pursuited. So far, Sergio Romo is the only addition and Cody Allen is doing work in the minors to try to earn a spot. Neither of them cost the Twins much. Maybe we should be expecting cheap signings like these two instead of big splashes. Maybe they will work. What would you do?
     
    By this time tomorrow we will have our answers. Minnesota has to choose between shopping big and try to win it all this year or just modestly improve an already good team, patiently waiting for years to come and not compromising the long-term future.
  2. Thiéres Rabelo
    I think Taylor Rogers may have been the greatest Twin to be snubbed from anything since Joe Mauer didn’t get the 2017 Gold Glove. After earning the longest save from any Twins pitcher since 2000 yesterday against the Rangers (he retired all seven batters he faced) and becoming the pitcher with the most saves of three or more outs for the club this century, he made it clear once again that he’s definitely one of the best relievers in the game.
     
    If you look at the group of relievers that were invited to take part in the Midsummer Classic playing for the American League, it doesn’t seem so absurd that Rogers wasn’t there. Aroldis Chapman, Shane Greene, Brad Hand, Liam Hendriks and Ryan Pressly all have very similar stats, with most of them being better than Rogers’. The only one of them who has a worse ERA than the Twins star (now at 1.82) is Hand (with 2.17). Only Chapman (12.98) and Hand (13.26) are striking out more batters than him (11.57).
     
    So, if you think about it, it’s not absurd that he didn’t make the team. But it wouldn’t be absurd if he did either. He’s being at least as effective as the five of them. But Rogers has one difference which could give him the upperhand in a closer comparison with those pitchers. And I don’t think this angle would ever (or even should) be used to decide who an All Star will be. But it’s nice to look at it and have fun with the realization that the Twins have one of the best arms in the game.
     
    Going straight to the point: Rogers is used in more important situations than those guys and he is more responsible for his team’s wins than any reliever in the AL. Like we saw before, his overall numbers are very similar or even slightly worse than the All Star relievers. But when you look at high leverage situations, none of them are a match for Rogers.
     
     
    Talking about quantity, none of them was used in those situations as much as him. He pitched a total of 14 2/3 innings of high leverage, which currently ranks third in the AL. The AL All Star reliever who comes closest is Hand, who pitched 11 2/3. But the Indians pitcher posts a 6.17, whereas Rogers has a 3.07 ERA. The only AL pitcher who has pitched as many innings (15 1/3) and has a better ERA (2.35) than him is Houston’s Roberto Osuna.
     
     
    No other pitcher in the AL has been more responsible for his team’s wins than Rogers has. Currently, he leads all of them in Win Probability Added (WPA), with 2.56. The second AL pitcher in that rank is Chicago’s Álex Colomé, at 1.86, which is still better than the first of the 2019 All Star relievers, Hendriks, at 1.82. Superstar Yankee closer, Chapman doesn’t have even one third of Rogers’ WPA, standing at 0.62. So, it’s safe to say that it would have been absolutely fair if Rogers was chosen over any of the current AL All Star relievers.
     
     
    But now, I have something else to put up for discussion. Taylor is only 28 and, if he continues to pitch like that, I think nobody would have any objection to making him a Twin for the remainder of his career. So I should ask your opinion. Where in Twins history do you think Rogers could end up ranking at the end of his career? Does he have a shot at one day becoming one of the best relievers in club history?
     
     
    Well, to start, I did a quick research, using Fangraphs’ Splits Leaderboard tool. Currently, Taylor has a 1.82 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and is striking out 11.57 batters per nine. The season is only at its midpoint and these numbers could very well get worse. But, if the season ended today, this would be only the second time in Twins history that a reliever has up to 1.82 ERA, over 11 strikeouts per nine and a WHIP of 0.98 or lower. The only other time that happened was in 2006, when Joe Nathan posted 1.58 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and struck out 12.5 batters per nine. Let me repeat myself: that only happened one other time in club history.
     
     
    Nathan is the consensual choice any time someone asks who is the best reliever in Twins history. But interestingly enough, when you compare Rogers’ current career numbers and Nathan’s when he was 28, it gets scary. By the end of the 2002 season, when Nathan was still with the Giants, he had only one career save and -0.52 WPA. Rogers earned against the Rangers this Saturday his 14th career save and holds a 6.69 career WPA, which already ranks fourth in club history. Nathan has the lead with 24.55, but he didn’t throw a single pitch in a Twins uniform before he was 29.
     
     
    Another angle through which we can also speculate that Rogers can surpass Nathan in the competition for best reliever in Twins history are their Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (fWAR). Rogers currently is currently worth 4.2 career fWAR, at age 28, in his fourth year as a Major League pitcher. At age 28, Nathan was worth -0.4 and after his fourth season in the Majors he was worth 0.8.
     
     
    So everytime this Colorado kid comes up to the mound this year, Twins fans should be extra grateful for the opportunity. Chances are we might be witnessing one of the greatest pitchers to ever play for Minnesota. Too bad All Star game won’t have this opportunity this year.
  3. Thiéres Rabelo
    With recent struggles from Twins pitchers, for example, an early season discussion has been brought up this week. Did the Twins address well enough the team’s need during the offseason? Some people sure feel like they didn’t. But one offseason move (out of several others) that we can absolutely tell was right on the money was the Marwin Gonzalez signing.
     
    Having played this season in six different positions throughout the field, while also batting DH and pinch hitting, “Margo” is officially one of the most useful pieces a team could have in the sport. Baseball Essential considered Gonzalez the best super-utility player in the game. He was an invaluable help overall during the first couple of months of the season, filling in for injured Miguel Sanó, starting 52 of the team’s 60 games.
     
    But it took a while for most Twins fans to see Gonzalez as indispensable. He had a horrible first month offensively, batting .167, with a .501 OPS and 34 wRC+ in 23 games. Even though bad starts offensively have always been a part of his career, people started doubting him, on some level. Overall, he holds a .228 AVG, with a .675 OPS in his eight years in the league. Still, even specialists believed he was bound to lose at bats and become the third option to start at third base, once Willians Astudillo was having himself a hot start of the season. The Turtle was batting .327 with an .870 OPS by the end of April, so it was the natural choice then.
     
    But then, things shifted. Since May 1st, he’s batting .304/.376/.500. In that span, only two other players drew more walks than him, who got 11. Also, Gonzalez has been left-handed pitchers’ nightmare, as he’s slashing .378/.425/.541 against them. He completely turned his season around. With 125 PA since the start of May, he’s been the fifth most used player in the offense, with more PA’s than everyday starters Jonathan Schoop and Byron Buxton, for example. He’s become a vital and dependable part of this MLB-best offense.
     
    But that’s not even his biggest contribution. Not only is he doing some damage at the plate lately, but he’s also been playing Gold Glove-caliber defense. Being a bench player, he will never win such award, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s an above average defender. And what’s more impressive about this? He does so in more than one position. Here are some defensive stats.
     
    As a 3B (257.2 innings)
    3 DRS
    1.8 UZR
    .989 FP
    4 DPS
    69 Assists
    21 PO
    1 Error (TE)
     
    Gonzalez' three defensive runs saved would be tied for sixth best in MLB, if he qualified. He has as many as 2018 Gold Glove Award winner Nolan Arenado, who's already played over twice as many innings as him this year. He has saved more runs than players such as old friend Eduardo Escobar, Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada, Matt Carpenter and José Ramírez, all of which have been on the field for at least 446 1/3 innings. Regarding his UZR, he would also be tied for sixth best in the game, beating names like Evan Longoria and Alex Bregman, the AL runner-up for the Gold Glove award last year.
     
    When looking at his assists amount, he doesn’t rank very high in the league, but, of course, his sample time on the field is much smaller than the average everyday third baseman. If he had had the opportunity to play, say, 400 innings on the field, he would have an equivalent of 107 assists, which would rank him 5th in the league. Had he been there for 500 innings, we would be talking about a league second best 133 assists. But, of course, this is purely hypothetical mathematics.
     
    As an OF (81 innings)
    3 DRS
    0.9 UZR
    .933 FP
    2 Assists
    12 PO
    1 error (FE)
     
    In the outfield, Gonzalez also has a very small sample, which prevent him from competing with the everyday outfielder in the stats department. But, still, you can tell he’s not at all a bad defender there either. He has as many defensive runs saved as Mike Trout does and one more than NL MVP Christian Yelich. So, the Twins signed a player that, if starting regularly in his primary position, would compete for the league’s highest honours in defense. Not too shabby.
     
    Far beyond the numbers, by watching Twins game on a daily basis, you can tell what a great defender he is. There hasn’t been a moment in which I’ve felt insecure about Twins defense in the hot corner or wherever “Margo” is on the field.
     
    A lot of things could and should be fixed in the Twins roster. But having Gonzalez in the team guarantees that the bench isn’t one of them. It’s impossible to say for sure if Minnesota would be having the same success that they are having right now if he wasn’t a part of the team, but I imagine things would be much harder. Afterall, he might be the best and most prolific utility player in the game right now.
  4. Thiéres Rabelo
    Even though I'm not a Minnesotan, nor do I live in this beautiful state, I've been observing you guys for years. I see a lot of pessimism when it comes to sports. And who can blame you? Few fans in America love their teams as much as you do and, at the same time, have endured such traumatic playoff moments with the Vikings and Wild or such long playoff draughts with the Twins and Timberwolves. You have the right to be – in the words of our Twins Daily own Parker Hageman – dead inside when it comes to sports. Well, maybe it's time to believe again.
    I don't live in the US and I haven't set foot there since May 2013. I'm from a country where most people literally have no clue of what baseball is. I met the game of baseball in 2008, at age 16. So, it's nearly impossible for me to have access to any publication (or clothing items, memorabilia, sports gear...) about the sport. But, miraculously, one of my students gave me a very special gift some weeks ago.
    Having taken an exchange programme to the USA in 2015, he was hosted by a Kansas City family during his time there. He knows nothing about baseball himself, but his family did and they gave him a Sports Illustrated 2015 World Series Commemorative Issue. He kept that, only to, almost four years later, give that as a present to his all-time favorite teacher. I was thrilled. I almost didn't even care about the fact that the Royals are a Twins division rival. Afterall, it was the first baseball publication I ever laid hands on.
    The magazine sat on my desk at home for some days. In the meantime, the Twins flourished as the team with the best record in baseball. I would be lying if I said I saw that coming, but I can't say I'm shocked by that either. But a lot of people are, indeed, shocked. I lost count of how many people on social media are doubting the Twins. “Enjoy 'em while you can, 'cause they won't last”. And that's not even from people outside of Minnesota only. Like I explained on the first paragraph, many Minnesotans don't believe their Twins are for real. That made me a little mad. And then, the magazine spoke to me.
    In the midst of so much pessimism and disbelief coming from every which way, I started browsing through that $12.99 SI issue from November of 2015 and I thought to myself: why can't the Twins be this year's version of the 2015 Royals? And believe me or not, I found a lot of similarities between the two teams. I'm not saying here that Minnesota will win the World Series. All I'm saying is that it's OK to believe in it – like I do right now.
    Even though we've had our hearts broken by the Brett Favre interception, the Gary Anderson and Blair Walsh missed field goals, the Jimmy Butler fiasco, the Joe Nathan blown save in the '09 ALDS and, well, the whole Wild playoff history, you might not be a fool to let your guard down for this Twins team. If you don't believe me, let us go through some of the things these two great ball clubs have in common.
     
    A couple of underdogs
    When experts started predicting what would happen that season, almost none of them believed the 2015 Royals would even make the playoffs. Which, in retrospect, is kind of odd, considering they had just been to the World Series less than six months earlier. In his opening piece, Jay Jaffe wrote about how the Royals were picked by specialists to make it to the postseason in only 13 of 149 predictions.
    Maybe this year’s Twins are not as much discredited as the Royals were then. Per that year’s PECOTA, Kansas City was expected to have a 72-90 record. Instead, they had a 95-67 one. This year’s PECOTA, at first, predicted an 81-81 record for the Twins, but a number of specialists considered them when predicting which team would win the AL Central.
    A month and a half into the season, with over 25% of games played, Minnesota has the second best in baseball, after holding the best one overall for over a week. The Twins are on pace to win almost 105 games. I don’t actually believe they will reach triple digits in wins, but at this point it’s plausible to believe that they will surpass the 90-win mark. Curiously enough, after 43 games, the 2015 Royals and the current Twins owned an identical record of 28-15.
    Another aspect that those teams have in common is the small Opening Day payroll. On that same Jaffe opening piece, he wrote that the Royals were the first team since the 2003 Marlins to win a World Series, even though they were at the bottom half of all MLB payrolls (17th, at $112.9 million). Per Spotrac, the Twins had the 18th payroll in the league on Opening Day, at $122.1 million, almost $12 million below league average.
    Even their track record leading up to their World Series success is somewhat similar to the Twins. Between 2004 and 2012, Kansas City had nine losing records, never winning more than 75 games and with an average of 66 wins per season on that span. Then, they won 86 and 89 games in the two seasons before their championship year. In the six seasons that follow their last division title, the Twins won an average of 67 games each season, including a 59-103 record in 2016, the worst one in club history. They went on to win 85 and make the playoffs for the first time in seven years in 2017 and came close to an eighty win season again last year, finishing with 78.
    I don’t believe in coincidences nor am I saying that all of these will have any effect on the outcome of this season. They won’t. But it’s fun to look at those facts, especially when basically no one believes smaller market teams can actually win a title. Let’s not buy into the notion that a team can only win a ring with a $200 million payroll.
    A steamroller offense
    Tom Verducci wrote, on that same SI issue, a piece entitled ‘Postmodern Swing’, which broke down the main strengths of that Royal offense. According to him, one of the most important features of that offense was its aggressiveness. The Royals saw the fewest pitches per plate appearance that year, with 3.71. Their philosophy was to chase after hittable pitches early and not give up easy strikes. Still, they were the team that struck out the least in MLB that year, with a 15.9% strikeout rate. They also average an MLB 7th best 4.4 runs per game. Which team has done something similar this year?
    Some weeks ago, Aaron Gleeman wrote this great piece explaining how the Twins have added power and, at the same time, have been striking out much less. They have been the team that struck out the third least in MLB, currently with a 19.5% strikeout rate. In comparison with the ‘15 Royals, Minnesota is also scoring more, with a 5.4 runs per game average, and has much more power, as they lead the MLB with .236 ISO, against .144 of those Royals. In terms of pitches per plate appearance, Minnesota also doesn’t see a lot of pitches, with an average of 3.78.
    Both these Twins and those Royals have something else in common. They both swing a lot and get good contact. Here is how they rank:
    2015 Royals
    Contact% - 81.9% (1st in MLB)
    O-Contact% - 68.8% (2nd)
    Swing% - 47.6% (9th)
    O-Swing% - 32.5% (5th)
     
    2019 Twins
    Contact% - 77.5% (6th in MLB)
    O-Contact% - 63.2% (7th)
    Swing% - 48.1% (4th)
    O-Swing% - 32.3% (6th)
    And one last nice coincidence that these two offenses have. In 2015, the Royals had Alcides Escobar as their leadoff man, even though he had a low OBP, contradicting modern tendencies. Escobar finished the season with a .293 OBP. He also saw very few pitches, with an average of 3.49 per plate appearance and swung at 51.3% of pitches and managed to make contact in 83.8% of them. Looking at Minnesota’s current leadoff man, Max Kepler, we also have an aggressive hitter (51.5 % Swing% and 82.2% Contact%), who sees fez pitches (3.56 per PA) and has a not so high base occupation (.308). According to Verducci’s piece, Escobar ‘set the tone’ for the rest of the Royal lineup, making opposing pitchers aware of the fact that they wouldn’t get any easy strikes.
    Quality pitching
    When we talk about the Royals pitching from that World Series campaign, the first thing that comes to our minds is their extraordinary bullpen. Then, one might think that here would lie the biggest difference between the two teams. Yes, that Wade Davis led group of relievers was no match for this current Minnesota ‘pen, but when comparing the two pitching staffs overall, we can find more identical features.
    Believe it or not, but the two pitching staffs have virtually the same numbers, with an inversion. Kansas City had a lights-out bullpen and a below average rotation, resulting in the 10th best ERA in the MLB. The Twins on the other hand, don’t have a stellar rotation nor bullpen, but both those groups are among the ten best in baseball.
    2015 Royals
    Overall: 3.74 ERA (10th), 4.04 FIP (15th)
    Starters: 4.34 ERA (22nd), 4.32 FIP (21st)
    Relievers: 2.72 ERA (2nd), 3.56 FIP (10th)
     
    2019 Twins
    Overall: 3.88 ERA (9th), 4.13 FIP (13th)
    Starters: 3.66 ERA (6th), 4.23 FIP (13th)
    Relievers: 4.31 ERA (19th), 3.96 FIP (9th)
    Davis was out of this world that season. If there has been a reliever more deserving than him of winning the first Cy Young award in the AL since 1992, I really believe he was the best candidate. Not only did he finish the regular season with a 0.94 ERA in 61 ⅓ innings pitched, but he also neared perfection during the postseason, posting a 0.00 ERA in eight games.
    I don’t see anyone within this Twins pitching staff (so far) with the ability to be what Davis was for that Royals team - but there’s no need for it. Up until now, Minnesota’s pitchers have done a decent job. The overall bullpen numbers are a bit tainted because of bad outings from young arms tested out of Rochester and because of slumps from, mainly, Trevor Hildenberger and Adalberto Mejía. But, as of this moment, six of the eight bullpen arms in the 25-man roster have an ERA of 2.76 or lower. Newcomer Austin Adams hasn’t pitched this season yet.
    Their rotations can’t be compared. At least until this moment, Twins starters have done an outstanding job. Maybe we’ve set the bar too low after years of bad rotations, but things have looked extremely nice. Which, with this whole exercise of comparing these two teams can be very exciting. The Royals were world champions even though the four starters they’ve used in the postseason combined for a 4.96 ERA in 16 starts.
    Deadline additions: a blueprint for the Twins
    To help end the 30-year World Series drought, the Royals traded for two key-pieces near the trade deadline. They traded Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb and Cody Reed for Reds’ superstar starter Johnny Cueto and sent Aaron Brooks and Sean Manaea to Oakland in exchange for veteran super utility player Ben Zobrist. Those proved to be vital additions to their goals.
    Zobrist had a solid last portion of the regular season with the Royals, slashing .284/.364/.453 (.816). During the postseason, he performed even better, hitting .303/.365/.515 (.880) and with five multi-hit games. But he also provided a much needed boost that might have made a big difference.
    Before his arrival, Royals second basemen slashed .231/.251/.319 (.570). In 35 games starting at that position in the remainder of the regular season, Zobrist hit .275/.348/.457 (.805). He also played 18 games as a LF, a position in which Kansas City had a good production, with .273/.383/.467 (.850). But Zobrist managed to top even that, hitting .299/.392/.463 (.855).
     
    Cueto on the other hand wasn’t as dominant as Zobrist, but he was still essential to the Kansas City success. He had a 4.76 ERA in 13 starts for the Royals during the regular season and a 5.40 ERA in the postseason, but those numbers alone can be very misleading. In four playoff starts, he had a mediocre outing (6.0 innings, 4 ER) in game 2 of the ALDS, a terrible one (2.0 IP, 8 ER) in game 3 of the ALCS, but two amazingly good ones to compensate. He pitched a on run complete game in the World Series, helping the Royals to open a 2-0 lead in the series.
    So what’s the lesson the Twins can learn out of the Royals shopping in the 2015 trade deadline? It’s hard to imagine, at least based on this first quarter of the season, that Minnesota is going after big names to help their offense. I mean, all help is welcomed, but if they had to invest top prospects in one area, I don’t believe the offense would be their priority.
    But when we look at their pitching staff, you can see a lot of room for improvement. As well as the rotation has pitched so far, the Twins would benefit a lot from a better arm to fill the gap Michael Pineda has been leaving until this moment. He currently has a 5.85 ERA, the worst among starters. The bullpen also could use some help - even more than the rotation. Bottomline is, it doesn’t matter how well the arms might be doing, with their clear exceptions, of course, shopping for one or two dominant arms could make a difference between a World Series victory and a quick visit to the postseason.
    And who could be the best candidates? Well, if you’re talking about bringing in a starter and a reliever, one can only consider signing the two biggest unsigned names in the last offseason: former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel and superstar closer Craig Kimbrel. But this would also represent a great risk, given the fact we don’t know in what shape they would show up. Also, there’s very little, if any, indications that Minnesota would be willing to pay them. I mean, if there’s any interest, why didn’t they pull the trigger yet?
    Since that’s the most unlikely option, we should look at what possible options they could go after via trade. For rotation help, I believe the best choices that they would have would be Madison Bumgarner or Stephen Strasburg, MadBum being my favorite. For the bullpen, my favorite candidate would be old friend Liam Hendriks. But there are many more options around and I’m sure the Twins front office has a keen eye for that job.
    In conclusion, smaller market teams will always raise more suspiscions than inspire confidence among non-fans. They will always doubt those teams. But the 2015 Royals are the closest example we have that this dream is doable. And, as shown during this article, they have a long list of common features with this year’s Twins. So, it’s OK to believe.
  5. Thiéres Rabelo
    I have seen complaints about many Twins players so far across our comment sections and Twitter. Even Nelson Cruz, who’s been almost unanimously admired by the fanbase and may be the team’s most threatening bat. It happens. No one is to tell you how you should think, no matter how statistically unusual your opinion might be. But there’s one particular take that has spread quickly all over Twins Territory and it puzzles me.
     
    I don’t think there is any Twin who has been more complained about this season than Jason Castro has. Even though I don’t agree with the large number of fans (at least that I have seen so far) that have been vocal about wanting him gone from the Twins, it’s completely understandable. Afterall, Minnesota’s offense has been amazing, especially after this weekend’s series in Baltimore. Castro, very obviously, hasn’t been nearly as productive as his teammates. But ditching him might be too simple of a solution and, in my opinion, not the wisest of choices.
     
    Castro is in the last year of his three-year contract with the Twins, signed in late 2016. Per Baseball Reference, he is the third highest paid position player of the roster this season, in which he is owed $ 8 million. At 31 and with two very hot bats battling him for the position of catcher, it’s very unlikely that Minnesota will renew its commitment with Castro after the season is finished. But that doesn’t mean he serves the team no purpose this season.
     
    Since the start of the 2017 season, the Twins haven’t won more games while starting any other catcher than Castro. Here’s the team’s record with each starting catcher since then:
     
    Jason Castro: 69-62 (.526)
    Mitch Garver: 38-48 (.441)
    Chris Gimenez: 32-29 (.524)
    Bobby Wilson: 24-21 (.533)
    Willians Astudillo: 10-8 (.555)
    Juan Graterol: 2-0 (1.000)
     
    Whether you associate the team’s record with Castro’s presence or not, the numbers don’t lie. The Twins have been a winning team with him behind home plate. But, of course, this could be highly circumstantial and it’s too hard of a connection to make. But, wait. The list of perks from having Castro on board goes on.
     
    The biggest point used by the anti-Castro party so far is how bad he’s been on offense, not only this year, but ever since he came to Minnesota. And that becomes a much stronger point when you have Mitch Garver blossoming into one of the best offensive catchers in the game and the also the Willians Astudillo phenomenon captivating our hearts each day more. A lot of folks label Castro as dead weight on offense. But, is he?
     
    Well, he isn’t, for sure, as prolific as the remainder of the Twins lineup. But, to be fair, neither are two thirds of all MLB lineups. But that doesn’t mean Castro hasn’t done his part. Right now, he holds the team’s fourth highest OBP, with .360. Other than that, that’s tied for MLB’s 12th best OBP among catchers (min. 25 PA). I’m sorry, but one doesn’t just throw away a Joe Mauer-type occupation of bases just like that.
     
    Besides that, Castro’s .333 OBP as an 8th batter ranks 15th in MLB among all such hitters (min. 21 PA). This may sound like very little, but when you look at the fact that Minnesota has one of the league’s best bottom part of the lineup, you can tell how important Castro’s contribution really is. Currently, when taking into account the positions seven, eight and nine of the lineup, Minnesota has a .273 AVG (3rd best in the league), .346 OBP (4th), .487 SLG (3rd) and .833 OPS (3rd). Say what you want about how Byron Buxton is the biggest responsible for such productivity. You’re right. But you can’t realistically say that Castro hasn’t done his part.
     
    Then, one might point out that Garver and Astudillo have been incomparably more productive on offense and one would definitely be right. They both have been raking, especially my former UNM colleague. If offense was the only aspect on the table, there wouldn’t be a lot of reasons to start Castro over the other two much more than Ehire Adrianza over Jorge Polanco. It wouldn’t make any sense. Well, but it isn’t.
     
    At the same proportion that Castro’s offense is no match to his competition, his defense would similarly be no match to his competition. And I’m not just talking about widely explored pitch framing stats, Castro’s biggest advertisement tool throughout his career. Twins pitchers have performed much better while being caught by him than by any of the other two.
     
    Jason Castro (63.0 innings) - 3.57 ERA, .703 OPS, 65% strikes
    Mitch Garver (67.0 innings) - 5.78 ERA, .773 OPS, 61.8% strikes
    Willians Astudillo (39.0 innings) - 3.69 ERA, .677 OPS, 65.2% strikes
     
    Finally digging into the somewhat popular pitch framing stats, by using Baseball Prospectus’ Framing Runs metric, we can notice that Castro is the 11th best catcher at it in the MLB, with +0.6. Astudillo ranks 51st, with -0.2 and Garver ranks 60th, with -0.5. This is not a hit at Garver, whom I absolutely enjoy seeing play and am sure is going to be the team’s main catcher for years, but he is still not on the same defensive level as Castro is. But, hey, that’s not even a bad thing, because now we get to Castro’s biggest importance for the Twins.
     
    It’s obvious that Garver can hit. We’ve known this since he was a minor leaguer. But picture this: what if we could get Garver’s offense and combine it with Castro’s defense? That, ladies and gentlemen, could be Jason’s biggest contribution for Minnesota. I have been personally tracking each pitcher strike percentage with each catcher on this spreadsheet since the beginning of the season and I can tell you how much Garver has been evolving. By mentoring Garver, especially defense-wise, Castro could lead him into the Twins best catcher since… well, you know who.
     
    Once again, let me make it clear that I’m not trying to change anyone’s opinion here. But I do give a piece of advice. Instead of getting angry and vent over how bad Castro’s bat is, why not look at him as a source of improvement for one of the Twins biggest hopes for the future? I don’t believe it’s good to take his help for granted. Besides, like demonstrated in the beginning of this article, the Twins are a winning team with Castro on board. It has been like that in 2017, culminating in their first playoffs appearance in almost a decade. They were dreadful without him last year. Now, they are back, at least momentarily, at the top of the Central. This can’t be a coincidence.
  6. Thiéres Rabelo
    Miguel Sanó is nearing his return to full time activity. After going through so much since being named an All Star, I don’t think there’s anything that would make him happier right now. But, looking back at all the events in the past eighteen months of his career, Twins fans should ask themselves a list of questions about his return to the team. Trying to anticipate every possible scenario could be a good way for Twins fans not to overreact if he doesn’t play very well at first and to have an opinion on how to assemble an even stronger lineup if he does.
     
    How is Sanó going to return?
    Nobody can know for sure which Sanó the Twins will get when he returns. In 2017, everybody believed he had had his breakout season and was bound to be the stud of the lineup. In early August of that year, though, shortly after an All Star Game appearance, he was hit in the shin and was sidelined for the better part of the remainder of the season. He got back in late September, but Paul Molitor chose not to put him on the Wild Card roster.
     
    He had surgery in November of that year to insert a permanent titanium rod into the shinbone and was expected to be ready to play by Spring Training. Well, he barely was. Sanó could only start his spring participation in the last day of February. Plus, he reported to camp a bit out of shape, which caused some concern among some fans. In spite of all that, he was cleared to open the season with the team.
     
    Then, maybe because of his conditioning or perhaps because he wasn’t confident enough to be back at that point because of his procedure, he developed a new injury during the first full month of regular season. In early May he was placed on the 10-day disabled list with a left hamstring strain. At that point, it was clear that he was not even a little bit close to the All Star he had been months earlier. Even though he posted a not terrible .739 OPS and hit five home runs, he was batting only .212 and struck out 36 times in 90 PA, which represented a 40% K%, a league worst among all major league hitters with that many PA.
     
    He got back from the DL and things only got worse. His first game out of the DL was on May 25th and he went on to play another 17 games. In that span, he had 73 PA, batted .191 and struck out even more than before, with 41.1% of K%. Before the middle of June he was optioned to Single-A Fort Myers, where he spent the rest of June and almost the entire month of July. He returned to MLB in late July for a third stint, but it was basically all of the same. His K% dropped to 36% during the 34 remaining games of his season and he batted only .195, with six home runs.
     
    After by far his worst season as a major leaguer, Sanó was poised to turn things around. He started his path to redemption by playing for his hometown club Estrellas Orientales to claim its first national title of the Dominican Winter League since 1968. He made some Instagram posts in which he was much thinner than he finished last season and raised a lot of questions. But when he showed up at camp this year all the suspicions were confirmed. It was reported that he had lost roughly 25 pounds, after finishing 2018 at 290 pounds, according to MLB.com.
     
     
    But apparently he couldn’t just catch a break. During the celebrations of his hometown team title, Sanó suffered a cut on his foot and had a heel laceration. At first, he was expected to miss only the first week of Spring Training, but he ended up missing the whole thing. Since the healing of the wound didn’t go according to plan, he needed to undergo a procedure that would most likely have him be sidelined until May.
     
    Which brings us to today and our first question: how will Sanó come back from all this? Will the Twins have the same 2018 version of him? After all, he did miss out on the entire Spring Training and hasn’t seen actual everyday activity for months. Some might be scared that he will have this year the same kind of year that Ervin Santana had last year. It would be terrible for us fans to witness that, but even worse for Sanó himself.
     
    On the other hand, what if none of those setbacks were able to break his spirits? What if he was hungry enough to prove himself that he dedicated himself twice as much? What if, instead of having an Ervin Santana’s 2018-like year he will destroy all the skepticism, like his teammate Byron Buxton is doing right now? That could turn the Twins lineup into an even scarier threat.
     
     
    If he struggles, what should be done?
    Let us work with all the scenarios now. Say he struggles when he comes back. What then? Do you trade him? Do you give him another chance? Each fan would have their own opinion here, so it would be difficult to predict a definite outcome. A number of fans are looking at this year as Sanó’s last chance in Minnesota and if he comes back in May and doesn’t play at the same level that the Twins hitters are playing right now, I don’t see a lot of those fans wanting him around.
     
    In his defence, you could say that Marwin Gonzalez, the Twins current everyday 3B, is not hitting nearly as well as most of the lineup. But he is providing stellar defense. It would be a very tough decision. So, do you try to work out a trade involving him? I guess many people would try that, but it’s hard to imagine a lot of teams interested in Sanó if he doesn’t play well enough during the two months before the trade deadline.
     
    In that case, I believe that the preferred way to go for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would be to keep him within the organization, especially because he has got one minor league option remaining. There’s no point in letting him go in exchange for nothing. I think it would be wise to take into consideration the fact that a lot that has happened to him earlier this year wasn’t really in his control.
     
     
    If he plays well, what should be done?
    Moving to a more optimistic scenario now. Let’s imagine he has a slow start, but then catches up with the slugfest Twins hitters have been having lately. Do you give him the everyday job? Do you have him share PA’s with Gonzalez and Willians Astudillo at third, or Nelson Cruz at DH?
     
    All those questions are impossible to answer, but let’s imagine La Tortuga’s AVG never drops. Let’s imagine Cruz keeps up the incredible season he’s having. Who do you have? If you make him the everyday 3B, what do you do with the loss on defense, since you won’t have Gonzalez there that much? I’m sure that if Cruz doesn’t slow down, it will be a rarity to see him have more than one or two days off every week.
     
    In the Astudillo end, things aren’t any easier. If Mitch Garver keeps feasting on opposing pitchers the way he is right now (even better than Astudillo, as of late), you won’t have the option to give him some PA at third, because now you have Sanó’s old self and Gonzalez’ defense. Rocco Baldelli and his staff would have to come up with a way in which they would provide all those hitters with regular PA, in order not to affect their productivity. That would be a pickle.
     
     
    If he does play well, who’s the odd man out?
    I believe that if the Twins had anything close to a 2017-like Sanó, no one would think twice about who would be the one to be dropped: Ehire Adrianza. Even nowadays, seeing very little playing time, it’s hard to imagine he will stick around long. But that’s not the hard question here. If you have a good, healthy Sanó and a four-man bench, who’s the odd man out if the club finds itself in need of a thirteenth arm during the season?
     
    A 13-man pitching staff has already become the normality around the league. Do the Twins dare to go with twelve, if all the bats are working? That, to me, is the hardest question so far. And it becomes even harder to think of an answer, if you imagine the Martín Pérez experience not paning out the way the front office planned. If he struggles as a starter, you risk overloading the pitching staff too much if they are carrying twelve arms nowadays. Assuming all of them are performing as well as they are right now in this hypothetical future, who do you let go of among Astudillo, Garver, Gonzalez and Jake Cave, the Twins only backup outfielder?
     
    Have your way on the comment section and give your opinion. What would you do?
  7. Thiéres Rabelo
    I will be walking on eggshells here, but I think this issue is bound to be discussed each day more. It looks inevitable. I’m not campaigning for the spread of "The Opener" strategy, as if it is a groundbreaking improvement for the game. Honestly, all I can say is that I think there’s no harm in testing it. But that’s not the point of this article. For the sake of a further discussion on whether MLB teams should embrace The Opener or not, I urge you to read this Russell Carleton’s piece on Baseball Prospectus.
     
    Assuming that The Opener strategy is a tendency that can’t be avoided at this moment in the MLB, the real point of this text is to discuss how it could be deployed on this Twins team. I figure not many fans would oppose to making that adjustment a couple of times a week, if that would represent… well, a couple of more wins a week. Right? In other words, if The Opener can make a team go from a 80-85-win team to a 86-90-win team, one would have to be stubborn to still want that strategy to be banished from the game.
     
    With that in mind, I ask you this first question: which Twins’ starting pitchers would benefit the most from having an Opener pitching before them in some games? Well, I was looking into some numbers and I was able to come to a conclusion of my own, but I invite you all to join in the discussion and share your opinions about this. Here are my candidates.
     
    Jake Odorizzi had a fantastic debut on the Opening Week, going six innings and giving up only one earned run, while also striking out eleven Cleveland batters. But then, last Friday’s outing against the Phillies couldn’t have had a worse turn out for him. He couldn’t pitch past the first inning, retiring only two batters and giving up four earned runs, three of which came from walks given up by him. I started searching a little bit in his career and I found some evidence that, in my opinion, qualify him for having an Opener pitching before him.
     
    Odorizzi’s ERA per inning since 4/1/2018
    1st: 4.13
    2nd: 3.69
    3rd: 2.61
    4th: 5.90
    5th: 5.26
    6th: 9.49
     
    As you can notice, his first inning numbers in roughly the last calendar year are considerably worse than the two following innings. In other words, it’s like he has been pitching much better to, say, opponents batting from #4 and lower. It’s acceptable to assume he would have a much better performance if he started the game pitching to the middle part of the lineup.
     
    Another compelling argument that shows Odorizzi could benefit a great deal from the Opener is how much worse his numbers are when pitching for the third time through the order. Here’s how he’s pitch in the same span as above:
     
    First Time Through the Order: 3.18 ERA
    Second Time Through the Order: 3.53 ERA
    Third Time Through the Order: 11.57 ERA
     
    In the last twelve months, Odorizzi has pitched almost four times worse in the third time he faced another team’s lineup than he has in the first time. So, he’s a perfect fit for The Opener. He hasn’t pitched well in the last year and he has run out of gas by the third time he has faced lineups. If you use an Opener with him, he would probably start pitching to the fourth or fifth batter in the opponent’s lineup. Plus, this could also improve his Third Time Through the Order numbers. In my opinion, there’s no harm in testing this.
     
    Another candidate that could really benefit from The Opener would be Martín Pérez. Maybe even more than Odorizzi. Throughout the offseason, we’ve tried to reason his signing and to think of many scenarios in which he could be a good fit for the Twins. But as of now, in his two relief appearances, he struggled, posting career high 24.3 P/IP and 9.25 BB/9, as well as second worst career S% (61%) and H/9 (11.37).
     
    As of next Friday (April 12th), the Twins will play 13 consecutive games, which would mean Pérez would be shifted to the rotation. He is deserving of an actual shot in the rotation, but if he struggles again, what should be the club’s course of action? It’s highly unlikely that he would be bought out of his contract, once he is guaranteed to receive his $ 4.25 million of salary. So, how could the Twins avoid having such weak point in their rotation? Keep him in the bullpen and shift Adalberto Mejía instead? Maybe. But you could also try The Opener. Here’s how Pérez has performed in the last calendar year.
     
    Pérez’ ERA per inning since 4/1/2018
    1st: 6.60
    2nd: 7.98
    3rd: 4.80
    4th: 5.79
    5th: 7.11
    6th: 9.35
     
    ERA per time through the order
    FTTO: 4.57
    STTO: 4.99
    TTTO: 12.46
     
    Just like Odorizzi, his first innings performance was quite bad and his TTTO numbers are more than two times worse than the first one. Using an Opener for one or two innings and having Pérez start pitching to the middle or bottom part of the lineup, could improve his numbers.
     
    Just as a comparison, here’s how José Berríos and Kyle Gibson, the two best starting pitchers of the team last year, have performed in each time through the order, in the last calendar year.
     
    Berríos ERA
    FTTO: 2.81
    STTO: 4.15
    TTTO: 4.31
     
    Gibson ERA
    FTTO: 2.31
    STTO: 4.86
    TTTO: 4.96
     
    The variation is not nearly as big as Odorizzi and Pérez. So, it would be a very valid move to try and use The Opener with them and see how it works. What do you have to lose?
     
    The best Opener options
     
    The Opener strategy is brand new, so it’s hard to trace the profile of the pitcher that would be best qualified for the job. After analyzing Twins pitchers’ performances in the first inning, I found this:
     
    Adalberto Mejía
    1st inning: 2.88 ERA (25 IP)
     
    Tyler Duffey
    1st inning: 3.89 ERA (37 IP)
     
    Mejía, in my opinion, should be a regular part of the rotation. I find him very talented. But, for some reason, the coaching staff decided to have him come out of the bullpen. So, with those first inning numbers, he could be a great fit to open games pitched by Odorizzi or Pérez. I really hope the goes back to being a fulltime starter as soon as possible. But, until then, I think using him as the Opener would be the best way to go.
     
    Duffey has also posted good numbers in first innings in his career. If you combine his second inning numbers, his ERA drops to 3.63. As of the third inning, his ERA increases to 5.94, which is probably one of the reasons why he has been shifted to the bullpen last year. But if he manages to start games well enough, he could be a great Opener option.
     
    Both could be used on that role or maybe just one. Bottom line is, the Twins’ rotation have that need (on Odorizzi and Pérez days) and the tools (Mejía and/or Duffey) to fix it. I say give it a shot.
  8. Thiéres Rabelo
    March Madness is upon us. I’m nothing close to a college basketball specialist, but it seems to me that not even the most optimistic Minnesotan believes that the Golden Gophers will go far in the Big Ten Tournament -- but, who knows? Either way, with or without the presence of the UMN boys, a number of people will hop on the Bracketology train and have a lot of fun during the month of March.
     
    Motivated by the school spirit brought by this event, I decided to look at how some Minnesota Twins did while they were playing in college. I came across a lot of interesting facts and numbers from the time that these now Major Leaguers were just a bunch of hopeful kids attending classes everyday. Here’s a list that I’ve put together, with a personal experience shared at the end.
     
    Kyle Gibson was a vital part of the Twins rotation last year, after struggling in his first years in the Majors. And that's actually a bit similar to how his college career went down. He was off to a slow start, coming out of the bullpen during his freshman year for the Missouri Tigers, in 2007. But then, when he started being used as a starter in 2008, he turned the corner and pitched at a good level in the following two seasons. In his last year in college, he posted a 3.21 ERA and 11.05 K/9. Gibby and the Tigers played the NCAA Regionals in all of the three years he was there.
     
    Kyle Gibson (Missouri, NCAA-1, three seasons)
    3.66 ERA
    63 games (29 starts)
    259.0 IP
    304 K (10.48 K/9)
    0 HR
    61 BB (2.10 BB/9)
    1.16 WHIP
    9 SV
     
    Tyler Duffey was Drafted by the Twins in 2012 out of his hometown college, Rice University, in Houston. He spent three full seasons playing for the Owls, between 2010 and 2012, helping the school to claim its fourth conference championship, in 2011. Curiously enough, do you know who was elected the conference MVP that year? That’s right. Duffey. He helped the Owls to finish the regular season in first place (16-8 conference record), with the highest number of wins (42-21 overall record) and to be the #24 program in the nation. He shared closing duties with former Twin J.T. Chargois.
     
    Tyler Duffey (Rice, NCAA-1, three seasons)
    3.06 ERA
    92 games (1 start)
    13 SV
    152.1 IP
    189 K (11.12 K/9)
    14 HR (0.82 HR/9)
    55 BB (3.24 BB/9)
    1.21 WHIP
     
    Trevor Hildenberger also spent three seasons in college ball, but his overall numbers weren’t nearly as impressive as his stellar Minor League totals nor his first months in MLB. Coming out of high school, he pitched for the University of California, Berkeley starting in 2010, but he was redshirted during the 2011 season. His best season was during his senior year, in which he posted a 2.83 ERA and tied the school record of ten single-season saves. On May 10th, 2014 he pitched 3.0 innings to earn a save, striking out six batters, his career high.
     
    Trevor Hildenberger (California, NCAA-1, three seasons)
    4.28 ERA
    56 games (5 starts)
    11 SV
    106.0 IP
    95 K (7.97 K/9)
    3 HR (0.25 HR/9)
    33 BB (2.77 BB/9)
    1.34 WHIP
     
    Veteran relief pitcher Blake Parker wasn’t always a pitcher. During his three seasons playing for the Arkansas Razorbacks, from 2004 to 2006, Parker served as the team third baseman. Drafted in 2006, he had a very slow start as a position player on Rookie and A ball and started his transition to the mound in 2007, to never turn back. As a position player in college, his best season was during his sophomore year, when he had a .865 OPS and was an extra-base maniac, with a 54.55% XBH%. After maintaining a 2.85 ERA in ten years pitching in the Minors, he knew he made the right call for his career.
     
    Blake Parker (Arkansas, NCAA-1, three seasons)
    .266/.344/.417 (.761 OPS)
    129 games
    504 AB
    15 HR
    79 RBI
    16 SB
    51 BB (8.79% BB%)
    118 K (20.34% k%)
     
    Taylor Rogers is a superstar in the making right now. But his college career was nowhere near an indication of that. After being drafted by the Baltimore Orioles out of high school in 2009, he decided not to sign with them and to attend the University of Kentucky. He was a starting pitcher for the Wildcats for three seasons and when we look back at his performance there, we get shocked. Look at what his Wikipedia page has to say about his college career: “In 2010, he tied for the Southeastern Conference lead in losses (7) and runs allowed (68), as he went 4-7 with a 6.40 ERA. In 2011, he tied for second in the Southeastern Conference in losses (7), and was third-highest in runs allowed (56). In 2012, he was fourth in the Southeastern Conference in runs allowed (45)”. Can you believe this?
     
    Taylor Rogers (Kentucky, NCAA-1, three seasons)
    5.34 ERA
    45 games (42 starts)
    249.0 IP
    172 K (6.21 K/9)
    25 HR (0.90 HR/9)
    55 BB (1.99 BB/9)
    1.46 WHIP
     
    Addison Reed MLB career is pretty respectable. His college career? It was monstrous. In three seasons pitching for the San Diego State Aztecs, Reed was one of the best pitchers in the country. During his sophomore year, in 2009, he led the nation with 20 saves in 20 save opportunities, striking out 38 batters in 27.2 IP (12.36 K/9) and finishing with a 0.65 ERA. He was named the 2009 National Stopper of the Year by the NCBWA.
     
    Addison Reed (San Diego State, NCAA-1, three seasons)
    2.16 ERA
    60 games (11 starts)
    24 SV
    132.0 IP
    154 K (10.40 K/9)
    10 HR (0.68 HR/9)
    31 BB (2.09 BB/9)
    1.05 WHIP
     
    Another player who had an astonishing college career was C.J. Cron. In three years playing for the Utah Utes, between 2009 and 2011, Cron was acknowledged as one of the best first basemen in the nation. Not only did he have extraordinary individual numbers, but he also helped the Utes to reach the regional finals in 2009, his freshman year. During his junior year, the last one before being drafted, he was “named a first-team All-American at first base by Baseball America, NCBWA, ABCA, Perfect Game, ESPN, and the Collegiate Baseball newspaper (Louisville Slugger)”, after slashing .434/.517/.803 (1.320 OPS).
     
    C.J. Cron (Utah, NCAA-1, three seasons)
    .396/.459/.713 (1.172 OPS)
    157 games
    641 AB
    46 HR
    198 RBI
    62 BB (8.46% BB%)
    75 K (10.23% K%)
     
    When the Twins signed Jason Castro to a three-year, $24,5 million contract in 2017, they did it mostly because of his defensive skills. As a major leaguer he hasn’t lived up to his minor league offensive numbers and certainly hasn’t for his college numbers either. Castro played very well offensively for Stanford, especially during his junior year. Not only did he lead the Cardinal in batting average (.376), hits (105), doubles (18) and RBI (73), he also “earned first-team All-Pac-10 honors, second-team All-America accolades from Rivals.com and third-team All-America recognition by Baseball America, ABCA/Rawlings and Ping!Baseball, while he was a finalist for the Johnny Bench award honoring college baseball's top catcher”. With Stanford reaching the College World Series that year, Castro was named to the All-College World Series team, after hitting 6-for-18 (.333) on that series.
     
    Jason Castro (Stanford, NCAA-1, three seasons)
    .309/.381/.476 (.857 OPS)
    162 games
    540 AB
    18 HR
    106 RBI
    62 BB (9.94% BB%)
    83 K (13.30% k%)
    11 SB
     
    Last, but not least (especially for me, but I’ll get to that in a minute), there’s Mitch Garver, who played for four years for the University of New Mexico, in his hometown of Albuquerque, between 2010 and 2013. Garver was one of the best catchers in the nation. In his senior year, he slashed .390/.458/.589 (1.047 OPS) and led the team in multiple stats. But not only did he succeed individually, but he’s also led UNM to two of its three Mountain West Conference titles (2011 and 2012), including the very first one in history, making him one of the best Lobos of all-time. Garver also takes much pride in his state’s roots. I don’t know if many of you will remember, but during Players Weekend last year, he used a New Mexico flag bat.
     
    Mitch Garver (New Mexico, NCAA-1, four seasons)
    .351/.421/.527 (.948 OPS)
    211 games
    809 AB
    18 HR
    167 RBI
    88 BB (9.51% BB%)
    104 K (11.24% k%)
    21 SB
    .384 BAbip
     
    What makes Garver’s college career so special to me? In 2013 I was granted a scholarship from my university in Brazil and I managed to spend six months in the US, studying at UNM. At the time, basketball was my main passion and I took every opportunity I had to go watch the Lobos basketball team, which was pretty good at that year (until a tragedy at March Madness ruined everything…). But I took one chance to go to the Isotopes Park, home field of the Albuquerque Isotopes, the Triple-A affiliate of the Colorado Rockies, and attended the very first (and only) baseball game of my life, when the Lobos hosted Oklahoma State.
     
    Back then, I didn’t follow baseball nearly as much as I do today. So I had no idea who any of those players were. It only occured to me last year, when Garver started to get his first Major League chances, that he was much likely there, behind the plate, during that particular game. I checked, and, yes. He was at that game (look at the picture above, which I took on that day). The Lobos trailed 4-2 on that February evening, the ballpark was empty before the game was finished and the pitcher I actually went there to watch (because we took one class together) didn’t even play (I think). But, in retrospect, I can see how meaningful that day was to me and Garver was a part of that.
  9. Thiéres Rabelo
    We never expect players signings not to work - but some of them just don’t. Last year was a lesson for Twins fans in that sense, with big splashes like Lance Lynn, Logan Morrison and Addison Reed underperforming. A lot of people would include Jake Odorizzi in that category too. So, in a way, sometimes is wise to lower expectations about new players, in order to be pleasantly surprised down the road.
     
    Long time club hero Joe Mauer officially announced his retirement from baseball on Nov. 9th, at age 35. Despite the age, Mauer still was a vital part of the team’s lineup, having a .351 OBP, which ranked 2nd on the team. He also slashed .407/.500/.617 with RISP and .333/.443/.468 with men on, while playing Gold Glove level defense. And 2018 was, by far, one of the worst years of his career. So talk about big shoes to fill at first base.
     
    Less than two weeks later, the Tampa Bay Rays designated C.J. Cron for assignment, even after his career year, in which he hit 30 home runs, while also being a LHP’s nightmare. Six days later the Twins claimed him off waivers, making him, at least in theory, the new everyday first baseman. But was his career year enough to give him such big job security? Let’s talk about possible backup plans the club may have, in case Cron doesn’t repeat his last year’s performance.
     
    It’s important to explain why my faith in Cron isn’t unshakeable at this point. Playing for four years in the Majors before heading to Florida - all of them with the Angels, he has slashed .262/.307/.449 and not once has hit more than 16 home runs in a season. Granted, he had never had more than 445 PA in a season before 2018, so he did make the best when given a real shot. Still, it’s hard to believe that he won’t be back to his old self.
     
    Even having the best season of his career so far, Cron’s secondary numbers weren’t so different from the previous seasons. When talking about his plate discipline, there’s even a considerable drop. He had a career-low Contact% of 72.6%, which was 2.1% lower than in 2017 and 3.7% lower than his career average. He also struck out more than any time before, having a career-worst 25.9% K%, 3.3% higher than his career average.
     
    Are all those numbers indicators that he is bound to fail as a Twin? Absolutely not. I just believe that they are evidence that going all in on Cron, parting ways with good possible replacement or platoon options, could turn out to be too costly later on. If the Twins actually choose to go all in on him, could this threaten Minnesota’s chance to contend? Not necessarily. But I don’t think it would hurt them to be extra cautious here.
     
    Before the Cron signing, Tyler Austin was seen as the natural replacement. Now, everything seems to point to the fact that Rocco Baldelli and his staff will have to choose between one or the other, since Austin doesn’t have any Minor League options left in his contract. But one thing is absolutely clear as well: if Austin had no chance to at least fight for that position, he would already have been cut.
     
    So, why to believe in Austin? For starters, we’re talking about a younger, not so much less productive than Cron alternative. Of course, his track records are much smaller, but his .758 career OPS aren’t too far from Cron’s .772. Last season, with both of them having their breakout seasons, their performance against lefties weren’t extremely different, with Cron having a .930 OPS facing southpaws and Austin, a rookie, .846. Plus, the former Yankee was able to hit 17 home runs in 2018, being given only 268 PA (career-high), while the 30 times Cron went yard came with 560 PA, more than twice as much.
     
    Like I said before, if the Twins thought Austin didn’t stand a chance against Cron, they would have gotten rid of him long ago. It all comes down to what the club has in mind. Cron is the obvious choice if you want an experienced, low risk bet, that might have turned the corner and should be able to help the team now (but it’s worth remembering that we thought the same about Logan Morrison a year ago). On the other hand, if you have a younger option, with similar production, who could help the team long-term, Austin should be your guy. He’s no kid, but he seems to have more potential. With only 404 career PA, he has produced eight more home runs, 12 more runs batted in and more than twice as many walks as Cron did when he reached that many PA.
     
    One extra piece of information to the mixture. Minnesota’s current contract with Cron has him earning $4.8 million this season. But according to last week’s “Gleeman and the Geek” podcast, if the club were to decide to cut him before Opening Day, they would only owe him 25% of that amount ($1.2 million). Of course, they would not have claimed him off waivers if they didn’t believe he is their guy. But having that exit possibility sure makes things easier if they don’t like what they see from him in Spring Training.
     
    And just when we thought this decision couldn’t get any more complicated, the Twins proved us wrong. Less than ten days ago, the club signed a minor-league contract with LHH and former MVP-candidate Lucas Duda, which was invited to Spring Training. Ted Schwerzler wrote this great piece analyzing how the 33-year old could help Minnesota. It would be tricky to try to fit him in this packed Twins roster, although it could be doable, since the team wouldn’t need a fifth starter until mid-April, allowing the bench to have a fourth player. It’s hard to see him making the Opening Day roster and remaining there for the rest of the year. But if Duda were to accept a job at Rochester for most of the year, he could either become a good option in case of injury or even a trade asset eventually.
     
    Since all of their offensive numbers look rather similar, if you’re still undecided on which one is your favorite, you can also look at their defense. But bad news: none of them even compares to what Joe Mauer was in that department. The future Hall of Famer has had impressive numbers overall in the five full years as a first baseman. Last year wasn’t the best example, but his numbers were still better than the Cron-Austin-Duda trio. The Saint Paul kid had .996 FP, 3 DRS and 2.7 UZR. However, a year earlier, he had a stellar defensive year, with .998 FP, 7 DRS and 6.9 UZR. He was shockingly snubbed from the Gold Glove award that year.
     
    But let’s steer clear of the Mauer nostalgia and see where do his successor candidates stand in comparison to his defense. Again, we have pretty similar metrics, when looking at their 2018 final numbers, so you will be the judge:
     
    C.J. Cron - .993 FP, -2 DRS, 1.3 UZR
    Tyler Austin - .997 FP, 1 DRS, -1 UZR
    Lucas Duda - .995 FP, 0 DRS, -0,1 UZR
     
    Numbers aren’t everything when talking about defense. You have to take into account experience and athleticism. Duda is obviously the most experienced and his defensive numbers aren’t the worst out of the three, but he has the smallest odds of making the team, in theory. Austin, out of the three, looks like the most athletic. You can also tell that by his registered weight, but he’s by far the least experienced. Out of the three, Cron has the worst fielding percentage and defensive runs saved. You make the call on which defender you like best.
     
    All we fans can do right now is wait for Spring Training action. If you didn’t find much to enjoy in the Florida games, you have this nice dispute now. There’s a lot at stake for those three guys. Let’s hope Joe Mauer’s heir is the best option possible.
     
    Follow @TwinsBrasil on Twitter.
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