Thiéres Rabelo

Oh geez, my bad, I mixed up those two numbers. But the point I was making is even more true now. With the tournament ending ten days before the regular season, there are absolutely no worries about preparation. The players will get a great one at the WBC and will have some time in between to rest if they need it.

The Twins play only one game that overlaps with the WBC, which is the season opener on March 30. Assuming Puerto Rico reaches the final game on the 31st, the worst-case scenario is that those players will simply stay in Miami to be joined by the Twins on the following Monday when the Twins start a three-game series against the Marlins. They won't need time off after the tournament, as the WBC can just be a replacement for Spring Training. And to be honest, it can be a much better preparation than Spring Training.

On Thursday evening, all twenty World Baseball Classic rosters were unveiled live on MLB Network. The amount of talent is scary good, with this having the potential to be the best WBC yet. The rosters are filled with current and former Twins that will represent their countries this year. Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo (graphics) Second to Team USA, Minnesotans might look at Puerto Rico fondly during this edition of the WBC, as seven of the ten current Twins, plus four former ones will be playing the event for the Borícua team. Relievers Emilio Pagán, Jorge López, José de León, Dereck Rodríguez and Jovani Morán, catcher Christian Vázquez, and infielder José Miranda are the current Twins on Team Puerto Rico. Former Twins José Berríos and Hector Santiago and outfielder Eddie Rosario are also on the squad. In addition, the team's pitching coach, Ricky Bones, who spent about five months in early 1998 in the Twins organization. Back-to-back runners-up, the Puerto Ricans could even have another Twin in Carlos Correa, but the superstar shortstop opted not to take part in this year’s edition as his wife is expected to give birth to the couple’s second child during the competition. But despite also having names like Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez, and Martín Maldonado, Puerto Rico won’t have an easy life in Pool D, as another team full of former Twins will fight them for one of the two spots in the quarterfinals. Venezuela is another strong team in the group, and despite having only one current Twin, he’s perhaps the team’s ace, Pablo López. Four former Twins will join him. Fan favorites Luis Arráez and Eduardo Escobar in the infield and Jhoulys Chacín (pitched in spring training 2020 before the pandemic and was cut in July, just before the season started) and Martín Pérez in the pitching staff. Also, the Venezuelan coaching staff includes Twins assistant pitching coach Luis Ramírez and long-time Twins minor-league manager, currently with the Wichita Wind Surge, Ramón Borrego. Former Twins minor-league pitching coach Ivan Arteaga is the team's pitching coach. With names like José Altuve, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Salvador Pérez, among others, Venezuela the main competition to Puerto Rico for the second spot in the group. I said “second” because one other team is considered by many to be the pool’s favorite. The Dominican Republic doesn’t have a single current Twin. However, former Minnesota sluggers Gary Sánchez and Nelson Cruz, who's also the team manager. Still, they’ll be one of the most exciting teams in the tournament, with players like Sandy Alcántara, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, and more. Only a tragedy would keep the Dominicans out of the quarterfinals. There are several other current Minnesota Twins (or Twins minor leaguers) in the competition. Newcomer Carlos Luna will be playing for Panama, and prized-prospect Édouard Julien, for Team Canada. Joining the latter is former Twins pitcher Andrew Albers. Seven other former Twins will also be fighting for the world title: pitchers Lance Lynn and Ryan Pressly will play for Team USA. In addition, reliever Brooks Raley spent much of the 2014 season on the Twins 40-man roster, and Jason Adam was the player acquired from the Royals for Josh Willingham in 2014. Two infielders who had short stints with Minnesota, Andrelton Simmons and Jonathan Schoop will represent The Kingdom of the Netherlands. So will former pitcher Shairon Martis. Former Twins first base/outfield prospect Zander Wiel will also be on the team. Their pitching coach will again be Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven. Last year’s fan favorite Gio Urshela will represent Colombia, alongside reliever Jhon Romero, who pitched in four games in a Twins uniform early last season. The Twins long had a pipeline in Australia. There are five former Twins minor leaguers on Team Australia including Aaron Whitefield who spent some time with the Twins in 2020. The others include infielder Logan Wade and pitchers Todd Van Steensel, Tim Atherton and Josh Guyer. Great Britain is in the tournament this year. On their roster include former Twins pitchers Ian Gibaut and Vance Worley. Tyler Viza pitched for Wichita and St. Paul early in the 2022 season before being released. In addition, Antoan Richardson stole 39 bases between New Britain and Rochester in 2013. He is the team's bench coach. Slugger ByungHo Park, who played for the Twins in 62 games during the 2016 season, will represent his home country of South Korea. Several former Twins minor leaguers will also be participating in Pool A or Pool B in the first round. For Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) pitchers Chi-Wei Hu and Kai-Wei Teng, as well as Saints infielder Tzu-Wei Lin will participate. The team representing China will include former minor leaguer Ray Chang. Team Israel will include former Twins third baseman Danny Valencia, along with pitcher Zack Weiss who spent a little time in Double-A and Triple-A in the Twins system in 2019. In maybe a fun story, 35-year-old Jakub Hajtmar is competing with the team from the Czech Republic. He played in 33 games for the GCL Twins in 2008. The WBC will take place from March 8 until March 21, with the four pools having a different host city: Taichung, Taiwan, for Pool A; Tokyo, Japan, for Pool B; Phoenix, USA, for Pool C; and Miami, USA, for Pool D. Below is a picture of the competition structure, with the four pools and the bracket all the way to the final. Who do you think is going to win it all? 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Full story: https://www.mlb.com/news/caribbean-series-2023-set-to-begin-in-venezuela

If you're looking at his entire career, you should know that he has a career .744 OPS, combined with outstanding defense. His OPS dropped below .719 in a season for the first time in his career in 2022 and that's only because of his injuries.

So base your projection in this fact: Kepler was an above-average hitter for his first 85 games in 2022 (115 wRC+, .734 OPS, 12.2% BB%, 14.5% K%). Then, he had two IL stints, one for a fractured toe and one for a sprained wrist, resulting in him playing only 30 games after July 24.

Max Kepler's name has been in trade rumors throughout the offseason, but what if he isn't traded? Is there any reason to believe that he could make some adjustments and become valuable at the plate again? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports No position player in the Minnesota Twins organization has been less appreciated in the last few weeks/months than Max Kepler. After a hot start to the 2022 season, the German outfielder saw his offensive productivity dramatically decrease in the second half of the season, mainly after suffering a fracture in his right pinky toe in mid-July. He’s now the guy most Twins fans want the team to get rid of, but since his trade value isn’t very high right now, Minnesota might have no other option but to stick with him for now. Which brings me to the question: can Kepler get back on track and help the Twins' offense in 2023? I think there are reasons to believe so. Kepler’s regression isn’t an individual outcome Kepler had arguably the worst offensive performance of his career in 2022. With a career-worst .666 OPS. It was the first time in his big-league career that it went below .719 for a season. But he was hardly the only Twin to see his offensive productivity plummet in the last three years. In three seasons under former hitting coach James Rowson (2017-2019), Minnesota had an elite offense, ranking among the top five or six best offenses in baseball in a number of offensive metrics: fifth in baseball in wRC+ (105), sixth in OPS (.775), fifth in SLG (.445), sixth in wOBA (.330), and fifth in ISO (.185). In the following three seasons after the New York native departed the organization, the Twins failed to rank at the league’s top ten in most of those same metrics. Kepler experienced his offensive peak with Rowson as the Twins' hitting coach with back-to-back above-average seasons (wRC+ above 100). Since his departure, he regressed into a slightly below-average hitter, similar to the one he was when Rowson joined the club. The past couple of seasons have been rough for the entirety of Minnesota’s offense, which possibly had more downs than ups. David Popkins took over as the team’s hitting coach after the 2021 season, making 2022 a season of getting used to a whole new regime. Kepler struggled overall, but that doesn’t mean he did everything wrong. Here’s why. Kepler might be a few tweaks away from getting back on track When browsing through Kepler’s Baseball Savant page, you get smacked in the face with his surprisingly good 2022 Percentile Rankings. What conclusions can we draw from this? He failed to get good quality, hard contact last season. While his average exit velocity (89.1 MPH), Barrel% (7.1), and HardHit% (39.9) are still slightly above league average, last year’s percentile rankings in those metrics are some of the worst in his career. Curiously, though, all three of them were worse in 2020, the last season in which Kepler finished with an above-average wRC+. He might never have been more disciplined at the plate than last season. Despite his struggles with hitting for power, Kepler posted a career-best 14.8% K%, making him better than 88% of all hitters in baseball. Also, he had an 11% BB%, well above league average (8.4%), making it the third consecutive season with an 11% or better walk rate. He draws more walks than 84% of all major-league hitters. His Whiff% (19.9) and Chase% (23.5) are also among the league’s best. His expected stats might indicate some improvement is coming. Expected statistics are fun to look at. They aren’t necessarily predictive, but they can tell you how well a player is doing things compared to the league-wide execution. For instance, Kepler’s expected stats trended upward in the first two seasons of Rowson with the Twins, resulting in a great 2019 season for him. Then, they started trending downward for the following two seasons, resulting in a poor overall performance in 2022. But as you can see in the image above, his xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG had some of the best percentile rankings of his career. So what does Kepler need to do to improve in 2023? And will he? When you hit rock bottom, there’s nowhere to go but up. Assuming 2022 was Kepler’s rock bottom offensively, it is logical to believe that he’s bound for some improvement, especially after finding out he’s in an upward trend in his expected stats. This is not just a logical conclusion from myself: several projections also believe Kepler will be a better hitter in 2023. On his FanGraphs page, you can see how every pre-season projection (the green rows) expects him to reach at least 103 wRC+ this year, with the most optimistic one saying he could reach 113 wRC+. But how can that happen? Well, the good news is that we know what he needs to work on this offseason and preseason: putting the ball in the air. Kepler’s decreased productivity on offense goes hand in hand with his reduced launch angle and increased ground ball rate. In 2020, his last season with a wRC+ above 100, his launch angle average was 22.2, a career-best. In 2022, however, that came down to 11.2, the smallest one since his rookie season. His ground ball rate also increased significantly in that span, going from 32.4% in 2020 to 45.7% last year. If Kepler gets back on track, what does that mean for the Twins? Kepler is one of MLB’s best defensive outfielders, ranking sixth in the majors in OAA (11) and ninth in DRS (9). Most of his 2.0 fWAR in 2022 was thanks to his defensive contributions. If he can improve the aspects mentioned in the previous paragraph and regain some confidence offensively, he can become an important cog in the Twins' offense. But does that mean he’ll stick around long? Not necessarily. The Luis Arraez trade proved Minnesota’s front office is willing even to part ways with a fan-favorite in order to improve their roster. In the eyes of Twins fans, Kepler’s appreciation was never close to that of Arráez’s, so if Kepler actually manages to get back on track offensively, he might become a valuable trade piece. With outfielders such as Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and Mark Contreras having already made their big-league debut, it’s hard to imagine Kepler, who’s in the final year of his contract, not getting dealt soon, provided he regains some of his trade value. View full article

With their projected 2023 rotation depth, how far should the Twins go when seeking rotation help this offseason?

Anyone following the soccer World Cup? Maybe we could use this thread to talk about it and also soccer in general.

In the final game of their disappointing 2022 season, the Twins crushed the White Sox in Chicago, taking the season series against the Southsiders. The main highlight from this game was Luis Arráez officially winning the American League batting title – but it wasn’t the only one! Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo (graphics) Box Score Starting Pitcher: Louie Varland, 5 IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 5K (78 pitches, 55 strikes, 70.5%) Home Runs: Gary Sanchez (16), Jermaine Palacios (2) Top 3 WPA: Gary Sánchez (.249), Jermaine Palacios (.088), Matt Wallner (.058) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Arráez is the American League batting champion! This is not breaking news, but… Luis Arraez has done it! Despite watching New York Yankee Aaron Judge briefly surpass him for the highest batting average in the American League, the Venezuelan hitting machine kept on hitting and regained first place, never letting it go again. He walked twice today before doubling to deep center in the third inning, raising his batting average to .316, and leaving the game after that. Even if he hadn’t doubled, his case for winning the crown was just too good. Coming into today, Arráez's batting average sat at .315, while Judge’s sat at .311. The Yankees outfielder would need to go 4-for-4 today just to match Arráez’s average while also hoping “La Regadera” would have some bad at-bats in Chicago. However, the Yankees decided not to play Judge for the day, making Arráez the batting champion right away. Even if Arráez had gone 0-for-4 for the day, his batting average would still be higher than that of Judge. Arráez becomes the fifth Twin to ever win the AL batting title, the first one since 2009, joining Tony Oliva (1964, 1965), Rod Carew (1969, 1971-75, 1977, 1978), Kirby Puckett (1989), and Joe Mauer (2006, 2008, 2009). He also becomes the sixth Venezuelan to win the distinction, the first one since 2017, joining Andres Galarraga, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, and Jose Altuve. The offense gets the job done early The game was basically decided after just two innings. The Twins' offense knocked around Chicago starter Davis Martin right out of the gate, building a six-run lead in the first inning. After Arráez drew a leadoff walk and was followed by a Gio Urshela single, Gary Sánchez obliterated a slider on the heart of the plate for a three-run rocket (106.2 MPH off his bat). On the very next at-bat, Jake Cave doubled to left, and he scored on a Matt Wallner single to center a couple of at-bats later. Then, Jermaine Palacios, who had hit his first major league home run on Tuesday night, made it back-to-back days with a dinger, taking Martin deep to left for a two-run jack, making it 6-0 Twins in the first. Three more runs scored in the second inning. Sánchez got another RBI with a double, bringing home Arráez from second after he got another leadoff walk and moved to second on a Nick Gordon single. That prompted a pitching change by Chicago, but it didn’t help. Both Sánchez and Gordon were pushed across by a Gilberto Celestino two-out single against reliever Vince Velasquez, making it 9-0 Minnesota. Things could’ve gotten even worse for Chicago in the third, as the offense loaded the bases with only one out against Velasquez. One of those runners was Arráez and his double, shortly before being lifted for pinch runner Jose Miranda. But this time, one run was all Minnesota could get after a Gordon sacrifice fly to score Caleb Hamilton. Varland takes advantage, secures first big league win Making his fifth start in the majors, rookie Louie Varland was still chasing his first big league win. Before today’s game, he had lost two and gotten a couple of no-decisions. Also, in his previous four starts, Varland had failed to prevent runs from scoring. He would reach both of those personal milestones by the end of the fifth inning today. Against an uninspired White Sox offense, Varland looked more comfortable than in any of his big league starts so far. He allowed a couple of hits early, one in each of the two first innings, including a leadoff double in the second. He pitched around that with three consecutive strikeouts. Despite not missing a lot of bats, Varland didn’t allow quality contact. Chicago hitters had an average 79.3 MPH exit velocity against him. Varland completed five on 78 pitches, throwing over 70% strikes. Also, this was the first start in his short big league career in which he didn’t allow a walk. Cole Sands pitched the rest of the way, and Chicago’s offense didn't pose a threat against him until the final inning, when they put two men on and scored a run, but Sands secured the four-inning save. With the win today, the Twins finish the season with a frustrating 78-84 record, but they do salvage one thing: they take the series season against the Sox with 10 wins in 19 games. Postgame interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Sands 0 0 0 0 59 59 Jax 0 12 21 0 0 33 Sanchez 0 0 0 33 0 33 López 0 18 0 9 0 27 Fulmer 0 26 0 0 0 26 Moran 0 0 0 21 0 21 Pagán 0 0 5 15 0 20 Thielbar 0 0 15 0 0 15 Duran 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article