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nicksaviking

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Blog Entries posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    Just for fun because these are all small sample sizes here and they could do a complete 180 after one more appearance, but some interesting and largely encouraging things I noticed with Brooks Baseball pitch tracking.
    http://www.brooksbaseball.net/
    Phil Hughes:
    I wanted him out of the rotation all off season because his off-speed and breaking stuff varied from awful to non-existent. The usage of Hughes' fastball, which has brought a chorus of boos due to a lack of velocity, decreased 40% from last year. He only threw his heater 30% of the time, meanwhile he threw his changeup 26% of the time. This is a pitch that he has barely touched in a half decade. Hughes made it through the day with a good box score but too many hard hit balls. This experiment might not work, but it's a good sign.
    Verdict: At minimum, encouraged by the effort to fix a glaring problem.
    Kyle Gibson:
    I can't summarize concisely how much I dislike Kyle Gibson's sinker. Or sinkers in general. Or the Titanic. Google my username, Gibson and sinker and the clinical definition of a mental disorder will pop up. To cut to the chase, Gibson threw 30% fewer sinkers than his average last year. He also threw 40% more sliders, one of his two good pitches, the change being the other which stayed the same.
    Verdict: Hooray! Let's get rid of that silly sinker!
    Michael Tonkin:
    You've got to be kidding me; Michael Tonkin's sinker usage increased 70%! Seems like we found where Gibson's missing sinkers went. Tonkin has also added a cutter this year. According to the site he has never thrown one before. His slider and 4-seamer usage is way down. Last year wasn't good for him so I guess there's good reason to try new stuff. Though he still went nearly 3 innings in his one appearance this year so I guess he's still the long man for some reason.
    Verdict: Ugh, fine go ahead, do it, throw that stupid pitch. Change is good, help me embrace this one. Let's all just enjoy your influx of groundballs hit to the left side of the infield.
    Hector Santiago:
    He has been known as a lefty who gets by on smoke, mirrors and a genie in a bottle who got lost in a checked bag when he flew to Minneapolis last year. He's always been a two pitch pitcher using a FB/changeup combo with a bad curve that he breaks out once in awhile. Well the FB usage increased while the changeup usage decreased. Hey, but he got the win!
    Verdict: At this rate he'll be a 1 pitch pitcher by June.
    Brandon Kintzler:
    Verdict: Nope, I'm still too chaffed to talk about sinkers again.
    Ervin Santana:
    Um, this all looks the same.
    Verdict: Duh, why mess with the one thing that went right last year?
  2. nicksaviking
    I can feel it, the anxiety around here is building, people are dying for some trade news. When the Twins were good they were loathe to part with young players to improve the club, when the club was bad they were so bad that they didn't have anything worth trading. Now we sit here with perhaps not exciting, but certainly plentiful trade chips. There have been rumblings about Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, Eduardo Nunez, Eduardo Escobar, Kurt Suzuki, Brian Dozier and Kyle Gibson along with what seems like the entire bullpen.
     
    I'm itching for a trade, everyone's itching for a trade, but should we actually scratch it?
     
    The Twins just hired a search firm to find them a new GM at minimum and perhaps a whole new organizational structure as many of us have been hoping for. While recognizing that he is a stand-up guy, removing Terry Ryan from his GM post received nearly unanimous approval here at Twins Daily, nearly as unanimous is the belief that the next man or woman calling the shots should not come from within the current organization, including interim GM Rob Anthony.
     
    Aside from Kurt Suzuki, every player on the roster is controllable beyond this year. I'm not saying the current folks in charge are not capable, but if the consensus is that someone new should be in charge, should we really be hoping for a huge roster overhaul now? Wouldn't conventional wisdom suggest that we wait for the permanent man or woman make those calls this off-season?
     
    These are my thoughts while I read Twins Daily the last few days as there is a clear tension regarding the trade deadline. I have cravings for a trade, however logic says to wait. But hold on, but does logic really say to wait? Because I also want Jose Berrios, JT Chargois and Jorge Polanco up ASAP, they have been down in the minors much longer than they reasonably should. I care about getting them up and running and hopefully ready to contribute positively by 2017 more than I care about which mid-level prospects come back in a trade. That means getting them at minimum an extra month of MLB playing time.
     
    Therefore, aside from trading Suzuki who will be a free agent anyway, I prefer Anthony to move just enough guys to clear room on the 25-man for those three youngsters above. If I had my druthers, I'd trade Nunez as his value will likely never be higher and his spot presents a clear path for Polanco. Assuming Nolasco and Milone cannot be traded, I may just prefer cutting ties with both come August 2nd to open spots for Chargois and Berrios, moving Trevor May back to the rotation.
     
    So my bottom line is, I would prefer Rob Anthony make only a couple of trades for the sole and explicit purpose of making room for the younger players who are ready now. I would prefer to let the next person in charge make all remaining necessary moves.
  3. nicksaviking
    Matt Bush has been called up from AA and is joining the Rangers 25-man roster. For those who don't know, or perhaps more aptly, don't remember, he was the much maligned High School shortstop, picked first overall in 2004 by San Diego. The pick was panned from the start as the Padres picked the hometown kid who played a premium position and passed up a perceived can't-miss ace in Justin Verlander, who made it well known that he was going to sign for big bucks. Due to the similarities, the top of this draft drew all kinds of comparisons to 2001 when the Twins more successfully took hometown kid Joe Mauer, who played a premium position, over the more heralded "can't-miss ace" Mark Prior.
     
    Well things didn't work out so well for Bush or the Padres. He couldn't hit, he couldn't field and he didn't develop any power or speed. What he did develop was an alcohol and drug problem. The Padres kicked him to the curb, and likely thinking of the team's past failure to get the best out of Josh Hamilton, Tampa Bay picked him up and stuck him on the mound. That was a short lived union however as he was arrested and jailed for 51 months after nearly killing a motorcyclist which according to reports may or may not have been his third car accident of the day.
     
    Out of prison, Bush was picked up this past year by Texas, who continued on with Tampa's pitching experiment. Well it appears as though it worked. In Double A he has a 9.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 2.61 ERA. Of course this is only in 17 innings pitched.
     
    Of this crazy story, it was that last part that struck me the most, the guy has been in prison for over four years, has thrown only 17 innings this year and was basically a shortstop before hitting the big house, yet the Rangers have already called him up to the majors. Eat your heart out JT Chargois.
     
    I have no idea if Matt Bush is contrite, humble or a changed man, if he is, I'm sorry for this next part, because all I can picture after reading this story is a Ranger's player asking him where he played last season. His response would be of course:
     
    http://images1.houstonpress.com/imager/u/original/6716749/charlie_sheen_r102610_thumb_200x151.jpg
    "California Penal."
  4. nicksaviking

    The Last Leaf

    By nicksaviking,

    The signing of Brian Duensing with the Kansas City Royals closes the book on a story that was started in 1989. In the first round of that year's draft, the Twins selected Texas A&M shortstop Chuck Knoblauch who would go on to spawn the trade that would put Twins GM Terry Ryan on the map and the fruits of that trade would be felt until 2015.
     
    After seven seasons of what looked to be the beginning of a HOF career, Chuck Knoblauch and his 37.9 WAR wanted out of Minnesota and to a contender. Well that's how the fans knew it anyway, back before internet media was a thing. While largely unpopular at the time, the Twins received Brian Buchanon (.3 WAR), Christian Guzman (7.5), Eric Milton (14.7) and Danny Mota (-.1) in what would be the branches of our Knoblauch trade tree.
     
    Brian Buchanon had some nice power potential and looked the part of a middle of the order bat, unfortunately for him, he found himself in a space crunch as he was competing for the RF/DH spot with Michael Cuddyer, Dustin Mohr, Bobby Keilty, David Ortiz and Matthew Lecroy.
     
    Buchanon found himself shipped off to San Diego and in return the Twins received shortstop prospect Jason Bartlett (8.9). Bartlett would go on to play four seasons (initially) with the Twins before getting traded to Tampa Bay with Matt Garza and Eddie Morlan for Delmon Young (1), Brendon Harris (.-6) and Jason Pridie (-.2).
     
    Pridie teased Twins fans with his potential but never put it all together and was soon DFA'd.
     
    Brendon Harris found himself a mostly every day super-utility role for the Twins before being traded for Jim Hoey (-.6) and Brett Jacobson.
     
    Jacobson never made it to the majors, Jim Hoey and his disastrous 24.1 innings unfortunately did.
     
    Delmon Young played three and a half mercurial seasons with the Twins, seemingly breaking out in 2010 and being a large reason for the teams division title. Alas it was not to last and the following year he was traded to Detroit for Cole Davis who never appeared in a MLB game and Lester Oliveros (0).
     
    Oliveros would too tease with his potential, but never got much of an opportunity to make it at the MLB level and was recently picked up the Royals.
     
    That wraps up the Buchanon wing of the Knoblauch trade tree, so let's head back to the top and check in on Eric Milton. Milton pitched six seasons for the Twins, six seasons that saw an All Star appearance, a no-hitter, and questionable contract extension.
     
    Despite that contract extension, the Twins were able to move him to Philadelphia for a package that included Carlos Silva (9), Nick Punto (10.3) and Bobby Korecky (.2).
     
    Silva pitched four solid seasons for the Twins before signing a nice free agent contract with Seattle, but most interesting for Silva was his 2005 season when he set a modern day record of .4 BB/9. Seriously, that is bizarre, check out the single-season leader board and the next closest modern day player was Brett Saberhagen with a .65 BB/9 which is almost a 40% increase:
     
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/bases_on_balls_per_nine_season.shtml
     
    Nick Punto just announced his retirement but played seven super-utility seasons with the Twins before leaving and winning a World Series with St. Louis in 2011.
     
    Bobby Korecky, we hardly knew you, except for that time in 2008 when the Twins lost their DH and you had to come to bat in the 11th inning. Of course in that 11th inning you not only got a hit in your only career AB but also the Win. That has to be worth more than .2 WAR, which surely proves WAR is worthless.
     
    Back to the top and we get to Danny Mota, who would do next to nothing for the Twins, appearing in all of 5.1 innings at the MLB level.
     
    The last branch on the Knoblauch trade tree begins with Christian Guzman. The speedy shortstop made one All Star Game and led the league in triples three times. He left as a free agent to Washington, but in doing so the Twins were rewarded with a compensation draft pick. Not a 1st round pick because that was protected. Not a second round pick because that was already lost, but a 3rd round pick in the 2005 draft which the Twins used to select Brian Duensing (6.2).
     
    Duensing was an unheralded prospect who made an immediate impact in 2009 and found himself pitching game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees, it did not go well. Duensing had another nice season in 2010 as a swing man before settling in as regular out of the pen. His seven years with the Twins matches Punto and Knoblauch himself in terms of number of seasons played for the Twins for the men listed in this overly long post.
     
    In total, 19 players were acquired due to the first round selection in the 1989 draft and a total of 94.6 WAR was gained.
     
    These trees can be found throughout baseball, and surely there are others as fruitful, but this one has interested me for a long time. All of the comical propositions of tossing Duensing into trade proposals the last couple of years were serious by me because I wanted this tree to keep growing. It however will not.
     
    Epilogue:
     
    the Twins 1989 draft was fantastic. They drafted three players with a career WAR over 20 in Knoblauch, Denny Neagle and Scott Erickson, also drafting Marty Cordova, Mike Trombley and Denny Hocking. Some of these players spawned unexpected fruit however too. While Erickson's trade for Scott Klingenbeck and Kimera Bartee is one of Ryan's best known failures, in 1992 Andy McPhail made a trade of Denny Neagle that would live on for years. In trading a top prospect in Neagle, (something unbelievable for the Twins today) the Twins received John Smiley, a very good, but not great pitcher who the Twins wanted/needed to replace the departed Jack Morris. Smiley pitched one fine year for the Twins before leaving, and in his place the Twins got a compensation pick in 1993 which they used to select Torii Hunter. When Hunter would leave the Twins would use his comp picks to select busts Carlos Gutierrez and Shooter Hunt. Also, while the Twins didn't get a comp pick for losing Marty Cordova, even though he had an .828 OPS the prior year, they did get one for losing Mike Trombley in 2000. They used that pick to select Aaron Heilman, who had a really nice MLB career, just not with the Twins because he refused to sign with them.
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