ToddlerHarmon

As you have likely seen at this point, the Twins signed Infielder Donovan Solano to a 1 year, $2 million dollar deal. When you first look at this deal, you may have thought that Solano is a similar role to Kyle Farmer and seems to be redundant. While there may be some overlap, I think there are a few reasons where both guys still get a good amount of at bats this year, especially against lefties. 
So let's compare Solano to a few other guys that I saw many people mention as targets for the Twins, Luke Voit and Yuli Gurriel. One reason the ladder two guys were brought up was their ability to hit lefties, so let's look at that first. 
Luke Voit versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .174/.298/.271. I will concede that these stats are lower than his career .236/.329/.439 line against lefties. 
Yuli Gurriel versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .265/.298/.441. These are slightly lower than his career .282/.333/.474 line against lefties as well. 
As for the Twins most recent acquisition, here are his stats versus lefties: 
Donovan Solano had a slash line of .301/.348/.422 line versus lefties in 2022. His career line is .282/.322/.389. 
The next thing I wanted to compare these players on was their Walk%, K% and their projected WAR going forward. 
Walk %: 
Voit: 10.2%
Gurriel: 5.7%
Solano: 5.7%
K %: 
Voit: 28.5%
Gurriel: 11.2%
Solano: 18.0%
Projected WAR (using ZiPS): 
Voit: 0.8 WAR
Gurriel: 1.5 WAR
Solano: 1.2 WAR
Seeing these stats, you might try to say that Gurriel would be the best choice of the three for a fit. The reason I think this is not the case can be summed up in one word: versatility. 
Donovan Solano can not only play 1B, but can also play 2B, 3B, and will likely get some ABs as a DH as well, against lefties specifically. Gurriel at this point in his career is a 1B with the ability to DH of course as well. Voit is a 1B/DH as well. 
Not to overlook Solano's ability to hit against righties as well. He doesn't hit righties super well, but can at least give you a good AB if needed. He has a career slash line of .276/.329/.367 against RHP.
One thing to remember is Solano is a depth piece who, similar to Kyle Farmer, will play mostly against LHP with occasional starts coming against RHP. Solano's versatility will also be helpful in case someone gets dinged up (which will happen at some point) and as a potential defensive replacement depending on who is in the game as well. Solano hits a lot of line drives, as evidence by his career .332 BABIP. 
I'd like to make this clear, I don't think Donovan Solano is an all star level player, but I think he's a solid depth piece that gives manager Rocco Baldelli another option this coming year. The Twins depth is much different than the past years, and hopefully this means they learned their lesson regarding not being too top heavy on the roster and not having as much depth. 
Let me know what you all think of the Solano signing. Who do you think this bumps off the roster? My gut reaction says Larnach, but maybe things change before opening day (perhaps a trade?). 

The Twins will need all of their starting pitching depth, and then some more than likely.  Even the healthiest teams use 6-7 starters over the course of a full season.  Factoring in recent injury woes for Twins pitchers and one thinks the Twins will use 6-7 starters easily this year. But lets assume the Twins keep a 5 man rotation.  With the Twins most likely using 6-7, there will still be 4-5 "Primary starters".  and 2-3 that will either be short term starters, sporadic starters, or spot starters.  
We have some obvious Primary Starters locked in.  Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Pablo Lopez  are locks.
Lets go ahead and assume that Tyler Mahle  is fully healthy and will be good to go. that is a 4th no brainer.  So who is, or better yet who SHOULD be #5?
I can tell you right who IS, or WILL be #5, and that is Kenta Maeda. The Twins will be banking on Maeda being the All Star level pitcher he was in 11 games in the Covid shortened 2020 season. Where in 11 games he went 66 innings, good for a 6+ inning average with 80K against 10 BB a 2.70 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP.
But... SHOULD he be th e5th starter? and is it reasonable to expect that after a year+ off? His career averages are a 3.87 ERA  just under a 4:1  K:BB rate,  a 9.85K/9  and a 1.14 WHIP.  Those are still very good numbers anyone would love to have in the rotation.
That being said, in albeit a much shorter sample size, Ober has career numbers of 3.82 ERA, just under a 5:1 K rate, a 9K/9IP and a 1.15 WHIP..
If we go by the numbers,  it says they are both equally effective starting pitchers. And the question you must ask then is... "IF they are both equal, and  both interchangeable for each other, then who should be the 5th starter?"
"Common sense" or maybe more accurately "traditional thinking" says it should be Maeda, as Ober still has options.  But should he???
I would argue we need to look longer term. Any player CAN be resigned this offseason, so in theory ANY of our starters could be back, BUT... in reality we will not resign everyone, and we actually have only Randy Dobnak and Chris Paddack under contract for next year. Of course Joe Gray will be here, and will still have rights to Lopez, BUT the only sure things are Dobnak and Paddack.  Most likely Sonny Gray and Maeda will be gone.
With that in mind, I think the correct way to look at things, assuming both pitchers should give roughly the same results is to go with the pitcher who will still be here going forward and continue to give him the experience and build up he will need for next year. This way next year is not his first "full year" in the rotation and is not as much of a question mark.
Secondly while predominately a starter in LA, Maeda did also show he can be very successful out of the bullpen, and if you are a cheapskate you can save millions in bonuses paid to Maeda with him in a relief/PT starter situation.
The clear way of thinking screams the 5th starter needs to be Ober vs Maeda.

Jhoan Duran is not only the best reliever the Twins have had since Joe Nathan; he is the most talented pitcher they have had since Johan Santana/2006 Francisco Liriano. There have certainly been talented players throughout that timespan, even an all-star or two, but no one has had the absolute shutdown stuff this guy possesses. If he is remotely near the zone, opposing hitters have little to zero chance of doing anything. So why not try him in the rotation?
Twins fans have been begging for an ace since Santana's departure following the 2007 season. The closest we have come was probably Ervin Santana or Jose Berrios. Instead, we have been treated to the likes of Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Jake Odorizzi. They were not bad pitchers, but they were not aces. Don't get me started on the likes of Samuel Deduno, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Diamond, or Hector Santiago. Feel free to add some more of your favorite lukewarm bowls of mashed potatoes to this list. I'm sure I left off some true gems.
So again, why not try Duran in the rotation? The whispers have already begun. He has starting experience (though with a bit of injury history). He's 6'5", 230lbs, and his body can take the innings. He has four pitches (4SFB, splinker, curveball, slider/cutter), a trait uncommon for relievers but usually necessary for starters. All the signs point to him being rotation capable, especially if he were to add a change-up. It wouldn't even have to be that good, and he would have an insane makeup as a starter. The temptation is palpable, and I have had these thoughts in the back of my head since the first time I watched this guy unleash the nastiest repertoire I have ever seen. It's not just the velocity and the movement, but the command. It is unique from others that possess stuff approaching the filth he brings.
All this being said, the answer is to resist the temptation. As tantalizing a notion as it would be, knowing every fifth day you get to watch this magnificent beast bring triple digits and then make hitters look foolish as they flail over the top of a mid-upper 80s hammer, we must resist.
Look at his numbers, folks. It's upsetting how good he was, especially in the second half when he really found his mojo. He was a man who was never rattled, never deterred. He knew he was better than anyone stepping into that box, and yes, I mean ANYONE, and it showed.
Confidence and mental state are crucial to all aspects of baseball, but especially to pitching. To a certain degree, to be a true stud on the mound, you have to have the mindset that you are the biggest and baddest motherf----- in the land. No one can beat you. That mindset comes from confidence, which comes from success.
Putting Duran in the rotation risks that success. Duran just turned 25 this month; messing with a young player who has already achieved that mindset is dangerous. You risk getting the yips after a few bad starts and then not being able to return to form in the pen. The yips are real and can happen. Anyone who has pitched knows this to be a harsh reality. It is just not worth it. Yes, we may never know if we have a true ace amongst us here and now, but we have the baddest mofo we could ever ask for, and that needs to be enough.

Manfredball will be in full swing in 2023. No more shifts, a pitch clock and bigger bases. The Twins will need to adjust to the changes and they will probably have to adjust more than most. The larger bases will make infield hits and stolen bases more common. The Twins will need to find a way to get more speed in their lineup and to be better base runners. They have been dreadful running the bases and have yielded oodles of stolen bases and that is not all on their catchers. At the very least, adding players with plus speed will be needed and a renewed emphasis on elements of "small ball" will have to be done.
I am looking to 2023 because I believe the 2022 season is basically over. A large number of the Twins' top position players aren't playing (Buxton, Polanco, Kepler) and many viewed as emerging (Jeffers, Kirilloff, Larnach) aren't playing either. Carlos Correa has been an offensive disapointment. Add in that Max Kepler and Gary Sanchez have been playing at replacement player level and it is a near miracle that the Twins are still in a pennant race. They've had plenty of help from Cleveland and Chicago, but it appears to me that it will be a surprise if the Twins finish higher than third in the weak Central Division.
I think there will be enough talent for the Twins to contend in 2023. A bullpen that includes Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Caleb Thielbar and Griffin Jax will be a far cry better than the bully that began the season in 2022. Add in prospective starters Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle and later Chris Paddack with guys like Louis Varland, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Josh Winder and Bailey Ober ready to step in, perhaps there wouldn't be as many short starts and so much pressure on the bullpen. 
There is position player talent as well. Jose Miranda has shown himself to be a major league hitter with perhaps a ceiling of star, Nick Gordon has developed into a competent major leaguer with positional versatility. Jeffers, Larnach and Kirilloff showed glimpses of what they could be before they were sidelined by injuries. Byron Buxton played most of the season on one leg and yet was valuable. If only he could get his health right for a season, the Twins become a different team. If Correa comes back, he is a fine ballplayer at a crucial position. If not, the Twins have sufficient funds to upgrade the team (pitching staff or position plauers). It is obvious that there will be more injuries, hopefully not as much as 2022, and also that some players will no longer be Twins in the coming year. 
Circling back to the mark that Commissioner Manfred has made on baseball, with a new Collective Bargaining Agreement in place, MLB is now going to recognize minor leaguers as a union. My fervent hope is that minor league players will get upgraded treatment in future years. Time will tell on that.

With trade season approaching, the Twins find themselves in a unique position that could allow them to get creative.
Max Kepler has been pretty damn good for the Twins this season. He's one of the best defensive right fielders in the game and has posted a .243 / .341 / .400 (116wRC+). That's good for a 1.2 fWAR through 55 games.
Another guy who's been pretty good is top prospect Alex Kirilloff. What he's doing at AAA right now is fairly incredible. He looks ready for the next level, right? that .370 / .477 / .661 (1.139) line in 34 games makes it seem like it.
I'm sure we all are aware that the pitching could use some upgrades. I don't need or want to throw random stats and convince you otherwise. I'll skip that part.
It's my belief that the Twins can utilize their excess of solid RF's for an upgrade to the staff. Let me lay out the grand plan
Padres
San Diego's pitching this season has been outstanding. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove have been pitching like Cy Young candidates. Sean Manaea has been the perfect middle of the rotation innings eater. Mackenzie Gore has ended up looking like he's going to be the ace everyone thought he would be prior to his 2021 from hell. Nick Martinez might be the best bargain signing from the offseason. That's not even factoring in Mike Cleavinger who's just getting back into the grove of starting after missing 2021 with Tommy John or former Cy Young winner Blake Snell.
Looking from afar as a Twins fan, I'm not sure most of us could comprehend what that much pitching feels like. 
Unfortunately for the Pads, the bats haven't been as great. As a team, they have a slash of .237 / .313 / .365 (96wRC+ .. ew). That ranks them in the bottom of 1/3 of the league from an offensive perspective. It gets even worse when you look at how the lineup handles righties, .234 / .306 / .353 (90wRC+)
Compound that with the recent news of Fernando Tatis still not able to swing a bat, GM Aj Preller has to be on the hunt for some reinforcements at the plate.
Right Field has been their biggest achilles heal this season as they've compiled a total WAR of -0.3 and are hitting a .225 / .277 / .287 (63wRC+) from the position.
Internally top prospect, Robert Hassell is most likely still 2 years away from contributing as he is still at A+.... 23 year old popup prospect Esteury Ruiz, who was just promoted to AAA, has been on an incredible run hitting .363 / .489 / .656 (1.145 OPS). While they could count on him to be the savior in RF, they may believe him to be the savior in CF, as Trent Grisham and his .226 / .315 / .383 (698 OPS) over the last 200 games isn't cutting it. Maybe it's CJ Abrams? though they tried that earlier this season and it only lasted 20 games.
For a team that looks like it is "all - in" and has pitching staff that owns a sub 3.00 ERA on the season, banking on an unproven prospect when you have a 229 million dollar payroll probably isn't the most ideal situation. 
Lets take a look at how its shaken out this season ... 

Not exactly a group that gives you much confidence going forward.
SO, enter Max Kepler
Kepler would provide the Padres relief in a few different ways. Obviously the immediate production in RF vs what they currently have is a massive upgrade, both offensively and defensively. Secondly, Max's career slash vs RHP .242 / .331 / .468 (.799 OPS) gives them a proven veteran that can come in day one and elevate the lineup as a whole where they are the weakest.
But in my opinion Max Kepler's greatest asset to the Padres comes in the form of his contract. As previously mentioned, if he was traded by August 2nd, he is essentially on what is a 2 year 13 million dollar contract with a club option for 10 million in 2024. 

ZiPS, FanGraphs player projection model, anticipates Kepler will be worth about 2.5 WAR over the course of the next 3 seasons. Now its somewhat volatile but a win in 2022 is worth roughly 8.5 million. (read more if you are curious).
Max Kepler on his 2 year 13 million dollar contract (w / the club option for 10 million ) is making wellllll below what he would receive in free agency and the Padres would be hard pressed to find a proven veteran, offensively and defensively, that is both a better roster fit and under team control at a reasonable cost. (pls dont comment Juan Soto).
That's not to say the Padres could go trade for a rental like Andrew Benintendi, but does that really solve any of Aj Preller's problems?
Cause he could have some serious ones ..
Following the 2022 season, San Diego is set to lose 3 vital pieces of the starting rotation to free agency.
- Joe Musgrove (29) - 1.50 era / 72 ip / 72 k's / 2.1 fWAR
- Sean Manaea (30) - 3.85 era / 73 ip / 76 k's / 1.1 fWAR
- Mike Clevinger (31) - 3.18 era / 17 ip / 20 k's / 0.3 fWAR
There's a world where if those 3 starters continue performing at this level for the rest of the season, each could command an AAV of 20 mil - 25 mil + in free agency. The following season, Yu Darvish is set to become a free agent. That leaves them essentially with Mackenzie Gore as the lone controllable starter past the 2023 season.
This also doesn't account for their closer, Taylor Rogers, becoming a free agent after this season. But it only gets murkier for the Pads... Baseball Reference projects them to have a payroll around 147 Million in 2023 and that's before arbitration, which looks to be an additional 30 - 40 million. 
While I'm not a capolgist, ill do my best to break this down. They sit at around 229 million right now. It appears they seem to be intent on not going over the 230 million dollar luxury tax for the second consecutive year, as they would be penalized to a greater extent for being a repeat offender. (hence the Twins paying Rogers 6.7 million dollar salary to keep them below that threshold)
Put simply, if the Padres have any ambition to upgrade offensively at the deadline, while staying under the luxury tax, AND try to recoup some of Musgrove / Manaea / Clevinger / Rogers, AND THEN potentially get a RF in FA, they almost certainly have to move money around in a trade at this coming trade deadline.
Here's my proposal to how these two teams can help each other yet again with a trade.
The Blake Snell experience in San Diego definitely hasn't gone according to plan, Dennis Lin of The Athletic has reported a few times now that they have been open to a trade. Since Snell's arrival in 2021 they have received a 4.33 ERA over 153.2 IP in 32 starts.
That's not exactly what Preller and co had in mind when they gave up 2 top 75 prospects (+ more) for the 29 year old lefty who is owed 12 million this year and 16 million in 2023. look, It's not absolutely terrible, but it's not great.
With that said, there is hope for Blake.

The underlying numbers show that he's definitely not cooked. The velo on his fastball hasn't diminished, he's sitting around a 96 mph avg. His xERA of 3.74 through 5 starts this year tells a different story than the 5.04 era on paper. It's not a super inspiring, slam dunk lock, and far from likely synch that he returns to his Cy Young form in 2018. But it's a glimmer of what might be the start of a turn around to be an at least slightly above average pitcher.
It also goes to stay Snell hasn't been a complete bust. From June 4th to Sept 7th of last season, Snell started 15 games and had a 3.44 ERA with 100k's across 81 IP.
Zips, Fangraphs projection model, believes he can produce a 2.0 fWAR next season. Again lets go back to using the logic a win is worth 8.5 million. Snell basically is owed a 2 year 24 million dollar contract if traded by August 2nd. You get Snell for 2 months the rest of this season (hopefully more with playoffs) and all of the 2023 season. So you hope that he can live up to the projected 2.0 FWAR and you'd be happy paying him 16 million next season.
Snell started 65 games from 2018 - 2020. In 337 IP he owned a 2.85 ERA and had a 11.5 SO/9.
While the past 2 years as haven't been good, It's my belief the risk on a 29 year old lefty with that kind of track record is worth the gamble for the Twins.
Now what would the entire deal look like? Max Kepler definitely has more value, as we dove into that earlier, so a 1 for 1 swap isn't going to cut it. 
By taking on Blake Snell, the Twins would be taking on what is basically 8 million the rest of the season and 16 million next season.
The Padres would be taking on Max Kepler's remaining 4 million this year, 8.5 million in 2023, and have the 10 million dollar option for 2024. It's my understanding that its AAV throughout the duration of the contract that counts against the the luxury tax, and club options are not counted until picked up. So the Padres would be really going from 16 million to 6 million next season, saving them 10 million against the tax.
The organization has been stacked with top prospects over the past few years, but through trades, the overall depth has taken a hit. Abrams and Hassell are off limits, just not happening. But, their #3 overall prospect per MLB pipeline is catching prospect Luis Campusano, who is most likely expendable at this point.
Campusano has been a consensus top 50 prospect for about 2 years now, but has seen little playing time with the major league club, playing in only 16 games over the last 3 years. I find it incredibly odd that he's been stashed at AAA for 2 seasons now and has a slash line of .303 / .388 / .486 (896 OPS) in 117 games. 
I've read numerous reports that the industry isn't quite as high on Campusano and his ability to stick at catcher long-term contrary to popular prospect ranking sites. When you look at the Padres and what they've gotten out of the position offensively the past few years, that's probably true. Plus they've stated a few times they would rather go with defense at the position (Nola + Alfaro).
With that said, the Twins have a good track record of developing catchers on the defensive side, just look at how Gary Sanchez has progressed. Combine that with how Jeffers has played the past few seasons and Sanchez being a free agent, a possible long term catching solution would be a great get.
He could help support the Twins in a few different ways this season. Obviously a few days mixed in playing catcher, DH is always an option, and he has gotten work at 1st base in the past.
But with the question mark about his ability to stick at catcher and playing first might be a challenge as he's only 5'10, I would want one more upside piece in the deal.
Michel Baez is who I would target. Only 26, the former top prospect underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021 and has been rehabbing in AA this season. Baez worked out of the bullpen in 2019, his lone season with the Padres. He was thought to be a staple in the bullpen after posting a 3.03 era in 29.2 IP with 28ks.
Baez has looked sharp this season in his rehab stints this year touting a 2.45 era in 18 IP with 23 k's. It feels like he's not going to be down in AA for much longer. This would be the perfect flier to help the Twins going forward the next few years.

The popular site -  https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ , has this deal about dead even between the Twins and Padres. While I believe Campusano is overvalued in their model based on the fact that it has him pegged as a sure fire catcher, I think it undervalues Snell slightly in terms of the potential he may still have, The Baez throw in seems to be perfectly valued for a guy coming off TJ and only has 23 MLB innings logged. Nothing more than a flier. 
At the end of the day, the Padres get an above average RF for the next 3 years at an extremely discounted rate and save 10 million on the books for the next 2 years. The Twins continue the movement in top prospects blossoming at the major league level, get another rotation piece with upside for the next 1.5 years, a great catching prospect, and a young controllable bullpen flier piece with proven success. 
Oh and Kirilloff comes in to hit .300 / .375 / .450 to replace Kepler.
Perfect world, right?
Thanks guys.

Gilberto Celestino has had an interesting path to the majors, and one that reduced his initial shine for most of the fanbase. Celestino was acquired for Ryan Pressly at the 2018 trade deadline, alongside Jorge Alcala, in a very unpopular deal at the time. MLB Pipeline ranked Celestino the 15th best prospect in 2019, and 14th best in 2020. The consensus was that Celestino was a standout defensive center fielder, but questions about his bat and power limited his overall projection.
When Celestino was called up out of emergency in 2021, his initial performance not only confirmed the offensive questions in the prospect rankings but the calling card of his defense was also poor with -2 Outs Above Average coming from 56 attempts. Celestino was clearly overmatched at the major league level, as he played a handful of games at AA before making the jump to the Twins. Celestino accumulated a 22 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR in only 62 plate appearances in 2021. 
Needless to say, when Celestino was added to the 2022 Opening Day roster the reaction amid the fanbase was tepid. It's probable that the Twins didn't even envision Celestino making the roster, as they optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul on 3/31. Many believed that his status on the roster was to be temporary, with rumors swirling about the Twins adding Justin Upton to be a source of right-handed power in the outfield. 
Derek Falvey even went as far to say that Celestino could be off the major league roster in a week's time. 
Flashing forward to early May, Celestino has outperformed expectations, and probably any output that could have come from Justin Upton. As of 5/9, Celestino has provided some of the best offensive and defensive numbers on the team. 
  AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wRC+ wOBA fWAR bWAR Gilberto Celestino .324 .390 .405 .796 144 143 .361 0.6 0.4 FanGraphs has Celestino as the 6th most valuable offensive player on the Twins in fWAR and his wRC+ is the third highest on team behind Byron Buxton and the legendary Kyle Garlick. On the defensive side of his game, Celestino has 2 Outs Above Average (84th percentile). It's a small sample size, but how has Celestino been so valuable this early on? 
The answer to that question: Celestino has had amazing plate discipline. 
Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % 2021 235 51.5 64.5 82.1 26.3 63.3 43.8 30.6 46 23.1 6 85.7 2022 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76
The highlighted cells show that areas where Celestino has been outperforming both his 2021 self, and the MLB average. He's simply become one of the most contact-oriented players in the game, and one of the most discerning about balls and strikes. He's swinging and making contact at pitches that are meant to be swung at in the zone, and spitting at the outside pitches that usually result in outs. 
Among all players with at least 25 plate appearances, Celestino ranks 3rd in Whiff % (8.2%) , and 16th in Chase Rate (15.9%). To put that in further perspective, here's a look at Celestino compared to two other players with great plate discipline reputations. 
  Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % Gilberto Celestino 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 Luis Arraez 351 43.6 66 92.1 25.8 88.2 46.4 19.5 43.3 8.6 5.7 60 Juan Soto 549 43.4 56.7 80.7 19.3 66.7 41 20.3 35.5 23.1 5.8 78.1 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76 Am I saying that Gilberto Celestino is the next Juan Soto or Luis Arráez? No, but I am saying that Celestino is a supremely disciplined hitter with extreme contact skill. That doesn't always take a large sample to determine. Soto has a chase rate of 19.3%, which ranks in the 90th percentile. Arráez has a miniscule whiff rate of 8.6%, which is in the 100th percentile of MLB players. Celestino tops both players in these areas at this point in the season. 
The only knock on Celestino this year can be his lack of power. Both his Barrel Rate (3.2%) and his average exit velocity (86.9 MPH) rank below the MLB average. However, the Twins have plenty of slugging across their lineup to make up for that. Luis Arráez used to be the lone bat-to-ball man in the lineup with names like Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez, Alex Kiriloff, and Gio Urshela. It helps to have offensive diversity, and Gilberto Celestino may be filling a needed niche that nobody expected. 

If Celestino's current blend of strong defense and astounding swing decisions holds up, he probably ranks as a starting-caliber outfielder on most major league teams. The lack of power will always hold him back from being a true star, but his skillset fits today's game more so than the previous half-decade. The surprise addition to Opening Day roster may have been the perfect fit for the 2022 brand of baseball. 
 
 

To me, power rankings are only legitimate if I agree with them.
Alright, that's a little flippant, but the Twins are getting mixed amount of love in the power rankings so far. MLB's latest power rankings have them at 14th. The Tampa Bay Rays, who the Twins handled with ease this past weekend, are at #8 on their list. Yahoo Sports has the Twins in 11th, CBS sports has the Twins in 9th, and the Athletic has the Twins in the 10th spot.
Fox Sports MLB Analyst and brother of a certain MLB pitcher Ben Verlander has the Twins in the 9th spot on his rankings. He has been very vocally high on the Twins lately too, both on his Twitter and his podcast. Top 10? Now that's more like it.  
The Twins have won 9 of the last 10 games and their roll is becoming reminiscent of their early 2000s heyday. They have the biggest division lead in baseball. For those who have the Twins ranked outside the top 10, what more do they want to see? Based on the events of this past weekend, the Rays should not be ahead of the Twins on any ranking.
The argument keeping the Twins out of the top 10 is that the Twins supposedly have not played good teams so far. But the Twins have the 9th highest winning percentage in the MLB and 4 of its first 6 series were against 2021 playoff teams. And they are a completely different team than what we saw in that Dodgers series (we don't need to further speak about that one) and even vs the Mariners, a series in which the Twins split. The Twins offense is on par with their lights-out pitching: Byron Buxton is back, Carlos Correa just has his best series as a Twin, and the Twins are calling up some top prospects like Jose Miranda. The Twins could also be battling against last year's reputation, and outlets are waiting to if the 2022 Twins are the real deal.
As we know, power rankings really don't matter very much. But it does feel nice to be recognized, and it seems the Twins are deserving of a bit more praise than they have been bestowed thus far by some outlets (looking at you, MLB's rankings). The upcoming series against the Orioles and Athletics likely won't do much to convince the experts that the Twins have played some high-quality opponents, but us who are following the team know what we're seeing. The recognition will follow. 

Twins fans can take a breath and be very satisfied with where the squad is in the standings and how well they have played in the last 10 games. A 9-1 record in the last 10 games tends to relieve our anxieties. However, I think it is human nature to find something to worry about. Befitting the Twins 13-9 (good, not great) record, there are things to worry about--Miguel Sano's poor start, unsustainable success from youngsters and reclamation projects in the starting rotation and, of course, injuries. My greatest concern is the back end of the bullpen. 
With the expanded rosters, the bullpens have been both used more and used differently in April. The roster will be reduced by two today and pitching staff will be limited to 14 after today's game. So far, the disappointments have been confined to veterans. Tyler Duffey failed in a save opportunity and took a loss when he entered a game in the middle innings with a lead and gave it up. Caleb Thielbar has strung together several poor outings, featuring his lack of command--both walks and falling behind in counts--and although his numbers are okay, Emilio Pagan has given up a lead and had two ulcer-inducing saves as the de-facto closer. The title of this blog entry points out that all three of these guys are over 30. I do want to point out that two other 30+ bullpen guys have been very good--Danny Coulombe and particularly Joe Smith.
I think that the track records of Pagan, Thielbar, and Duffey will allow their manager and pitching coach to give them some rope. Duffey and Thielbar started slowly in 2021, but performed better as the season went along. Pitching for San Diego, Pagan went the other way, as did practically the entire team. Duffey and Thielbar haven't closed games regularly. Pagan saved 20 games for the 2019 Rays and seems to be the preferred option for the manager right now. It doesn't make sense to me to trust any of these guys unconditionally at this point. Jhoan Duran would seem to be an obvious answer and perhaps Jorge Alcala could provide another reliable high-velocity arm in the second half of the season. To me, the Twins need to add someone to the mix that isn't on the roster right now. 

"I'm not superstitious. But I'm a little stitious." - Michael Scott
As fans of The Office know, Michael Scott can sometimes share deep knowledge. I think a lot of us are a little "stitious" when it comes to baseball. Prior to this Twins/Tigers series, I'd have told you I'm not a very superstitious person at all. Then, my coworker and I made Max Kepler good again.
I'll explain.
Before the series started, we were talking about Miguel Sano. We both remembered Aaron Gleeman's mailbag column where he showed Kepler was in the same boat as Sano, except Kepler got less grief. My friend said he thought Kepler could break out of it. Then, bam! Four home runs in two games (we'll just ignore that pesky third game for now). Kepler's hot. 
Maybe we need to talk about a Sano breakout next. 
Do I believe that we caused a major league ballplayer to hit better because of a hallway conversation? You know what? I kinda do. Just like I kinda think I jinxed the Timberwolves by watching Game 5 instead of going to bed early. I believe you can reverse jinx rainy weather by predicting it. I believe you don't talk about a no-hitter while it's going on. I once got Michael Cuddyer to hit home runs by wearing his shirsey. 
Of course, math and statistics doth make a liar out of me.. I UNDERSTAND that luck is just an illusion, but I KNOW it works for me. Even when it doesn't, my brain will find some way to make it work. 
I was glad to see the Minnesota Twins are a little stitious in their own way. I read about Richie the Rally Goat in Do-Hyoung Park's game recap. Everything about this article is wonderful. Paddack sums it up best when he says, "Baseball gods are looking out for us, and Richie here, he's done a good job of being a rally goat." Good on you, Richie.
Let's face it - there are a lot of cold and unchangeable facts in the world. We need superstition to clear our heads from the frustration of banging them into the brick walls of truth and certainty. As fans, adhering to superstitions it the least we can do. Literally.
I bought my own Richie the Rally Goat this morning. Count me in! Let's be a little bit stitious together!

New to the site, we've added both the active roster and the 40-man roster pages!
These pages will update nightly so they'll always be up-to-date with the current state of the big league club, adding yet another long-term feature I've wanted to see on our baseball sites basically forever. There isn't a lot to say about these pages other than they feature the standard set of player info: name, position, handedness, DoB, etc.
To find these pages, use the hamburger menu at the top right of every page (the three horizontal lines), click "Twins Resources", and then you'll be presented the options for both the roster pages and the team schedule for the season.
As always, if you have suggestions for new features you'd like to see added or improvements to current features, please comment below!

Every mention you see of Byron Buxton's transformation at the plate is inevitably followed by, "If he can just stay healthy."
After years of struggles with the bat, it appears that Buxton has finally figured it out offensively, bringing the talent he showed in the minors now to the majors and what made him the top prospect in baseball.
He was on pace for a historic 2021 season before a variety of injuries limited Buxton to just 61 games. Still, his .306/.358/.647 slash line from last year with a 171 OPS+ leaves fans hopefully that this is the year that Buxton can play 150 games+. If he can, Buxton will no doubt be in the MVP discussion and the Twins should be in the thick of a playoff spot.
So what does a full Buxton season look like? Where would it rank among the great seasons in Twins history. Well, lets speculate and calculate what that might look like.
 
Single-Season Twins Records

WAR - Rod Carew, 1977 - 9.7
Based on Baseball Reference WAR, this seems like the most likely team record to fall if Buxton stays healthy. He put up 4.5 WAR last season in just a third of a season (61 games). Over a full season, with the defense and base running, it seems possible that Buxton could have a 10 WAR season. How rare is that? Only 3 players have had a 10 WAR season over the past 20 years; Mookie Betts (2018), Mike Trout (2012 and 2016) and Barry Bonds (2002 and 2004). Going back further, there have only been 24 individual 10 WAR seasons since 1960 among 13 different players. 150 games of Bryon Buxton in 2022 would be awfully close.
 
Slugging Percentage - Nelson Cruz, 2019 - .639
Buxton had a .647 SLG last season in 235 at-bats compared to Nelson Cruz, who put up a franchise record .639 SLG in 2019 in 454 at-bats over 120 games at DH. Cruz obliterated the previous SLG record of Harmon Killebrew of .606 from 1961. Can Buxton sustain that power over a full season. His home run power has finally developed, hitting HR's in three straight at-bats this past weekend vs. Seattle. Given his speed, singles are stretched into doubles and triples??? may not be there. Why? I have heard it said that Buxton already has enough speed to score from second base on essentially any ball hit to the outfield, so why gamble for a triple? Buxton had 19 HR's and 22 doubles last year, but not a single triple. 
 
On-Base Plus Slugging - Nelson Cruz, 2019 - .1.031
The SLG% record and OPS will be close and tied together. Cruz's 2019 was one of the greatest offensive season in Twins history and may have gone under the radar somehow. Buxton's OPS last year was 1.067, so he is certainly capable of putting together similar numbers over at least a 60 game stretch.
 
Defensive WAR - Kirby Puckett, 1984 - 3.3
Buxton had a 1.2 dWAR season last year and put up a career-high of 2.6 dWAR in his 140 game, 2017 season. 
 
Runs Scored - Chuck Knoblauch, 140 - 1996
This one may be tough, but second place (Rod Carew, 128 runs in 1977) may be in play. If Buxton can reach base at around a 35 percent clip and have 550 plate appearances, that equates to 192 times on base. With All-Stars Jorge Polanco and Carlos Correa hitting behind Buxton, this one may be close. In 1996, Knoblauch reached base 197 times via hits, 98 times with walks and 19 times after being hit by a pitch. That totals 314 times, which is incredible. 
 
Total Bases - Tony Oliva, 374 - 1964
Buxton had 152 total bases last season in 61 games. Over 150 games, that comes out to 373 total bases. Buxton already has 16 total bases in just four games this season to lead MLB.

Home Runs - Harmon Killebrew, 49 - 1964/1969
Only three players in Twins history have had a 40 home run season; Harmon Killebrew (7X), Brian Dozier (42 in 2016) and Nelson Cruz (41 in 2019). Buxton's career high in HR's was last year with 19. At the rate Buxton has hit HR's the past few seasons, a 30 HR season should be attainable and 40 isn't out of the question.
 
OPS+ - Rod Carew, 178 - 1977
Buxton OPS+ last season was 171. In 1977, Carew's OPS was 1.019. When factoring in the era, Buxton will likely need an OPS near 1.100 to achieve the same.
 
Regardless of what records Buxton sets or doesn't set this season, it was been a fun start to the season for the Twins center fielder. We may finally get what every Twins and baseball fan has been wanting. A full season of health for Byron Buxton.

The hardest thing to get about Simeon Wood-Richardson is his name. The easiest thing is to see a guy with stuff like Jordan Balazovic, but with a big, friendly smile for the world. Another easy thing is watching his slow curve bend about a foot, just catching the zone at the end of a pretty little trip through the air. You could just about see the catcher and the ump both smiling at how pretty it was. Then he comes back with that snapping fastball, low in the zone. This guy is a keeper. I want him on my team. 
Not sure how much more polish he needs after dominating the Red Sox for a couple late innings Monday. 
One challenge the team will face is figuring out a good nickname. Sim? Woo? Rich? SWR? Not sure what fits, it might not even be part of his name. He seems like the kind of relaxed, friendly guy you wish was your neighbor. I feel like calling him Frank, or Chuck. 
Anyway, his talent looks very real to me, and it doesn't look like just a couple snuff-out innings. This dude can really pitch. 

Disclaimer: Despite the photo, no Byron Buxtons were used in the preparation of this blog entry.
Do I have to say it? Okay, I will, just to get it out of the way: I love the Correa signing.  Teams should be trying to get good players, and we just got one of the best baseball players on the planet, in the middle of what should be his prime years - a center-cut slice, as they say. 
But ever since I heard about it, TWO LONG DAYS AGO, there's been something on my mind.  Risk versus reward.  And I don't think I've seen any of the writeups here, or elsewhere, look at it from this angle.  Did we really outmaneuver the Yankees?  I'm not sure that's what happened, or that New York's front office is gnashing their teeth with regret in the slightest.
Everyone's treating this like it's a one-year contract, and I agree that that's the most likely way it plays out.  But it's not a one-year contract - the Twins committed to three years.  There's the saying that there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract.  The converse is that (because team budgets don't carry over from year to year) everything longer than one year requires the signing team to put its neck into a noose, to one degree or another.
So, what's the risk with this contract, and what's the reward?  The risk is pretty obvious and pretty easy to define - Correa could get hit by a meteor tomorrow* and the Twins still would be on the hook for the full $105.3M, which by their usual accounting would apply equally to the budgets of those three years and in some way impact their ability to operate.  Probably they'll pay him $35.1M for one year of service and then thank him for his service as he departs.  But they've put $105.3M on the table, and are risking it.  You know how you say you'd "bet your house" on some sure proposition? You don't really ever do that, because you would actually have to put the deed to your house out there to be taken if you are proved wrong, and you'd start thinking about all the ways it could indeed go wrong.  It's like that here.  The Twins haven't bet the (Pohlads') house, but there's a significant chunk of change on the table that wasn't there three days ago.  That aspect still seems underappreciated.
Now what's the reward?  Much harder to estimate.  There is expected reward and then there's maximum reward.  Let's focus on the maximum here, since I started with maximum risk.  I'll use WAR as a catch-all for how to measure a player's contribution.  If you want to skip the details, jump down to "I'll Do The Homework Later."
Carlos Correa may not yet have had his "career year" - remember what I said about us getting a center-cut slice?  He might go full-MVP bananas-mode in 2022.  Shohei Ohtani was MVP last year and his pitching/batting WAR on b-r.com added up to 9.0.  So let's go with that.  If Correa has that kind of year, he walks after the season, of course - goodbye and good luck, good sir.
Let's say he goes out and puts up "only" a season like last year, with a WAR of 7.  Same outcome.  He walks away, with smiles all around.
But maybe 2021 actually was his career year, and he follows up like that with an all-star level WAR of 5.  Same outcome - maybe he loves his teammates here, but bidness is bidness, amirite - he leaves.
Maybe he's only above average and his WAR is 3.  Probably he walks, right?  Still can market himself to a big market team for a long contract, certainly for more than the $70.2M he's still owed.
What if he's average, and/or injured part of the time, and his WAR is 2.  Maybe he stays, maybe he walks.  What if it goes really badly and his WAR is 1?  Same uncertainty - maybe he stays, trying to rebuild value.  WAR can be 0 too, or even negative.  Probably he stays, trying to rebuild value.
Okay, sorry to belabor, but my point is that if he stays, it's almost certainly tied to low performance relative to expectations.  Reeeeeally low.
Now, consider Year 2, 2023.  Seems like it's 90% odds that he's gone, and whatever WAR he earned for the Twins this one year is the end of the story.  But in that remaining 10% case, what will be your expectation of WAR for 2023, given that he put up 0 or 1 WAR in 2022?  Depends on why, but probably a WAR of 9 is now off the table - chances of a bounceback like that are just too remote.  Could he return to 2021 levels and deliver 7 WAR?  Sure, maybe.  If he does, then he walks after the year, and his contribution to the Twins is that number plus his (low) 2021 number.  Like around... 8 or 9, for the two years together?  It can't be much higher, because he would have left already.  Of course he might not deliver 7, but only 5 - he still walks after Year Two.  3 WAR - probably he walks.  Lower than that, maybe he stays.
So if it was 10% that he's staying for Year 2, probably it's also at most 50/50 that he's back for Year 3, or 5%.  And that will be only if he's put up WAR in the neighborhood of 0-2 the first year and followed up with 0-2 WAR the second year.  Now what are the odds that he suddenly goes bananas at last, after 2 straight sub-par years?  Really small, right?  Anything can happen, but an MVP type season really is unlikely.  He could win Comeback Player of the Year with a 5 WAR.  I think that's about the ceiling at that point.  0-2, plus 0-2, plus 5, equals... gee, 9 at most, again.
There are all kinds of ways to do this kind of analysis, because nothing is certain.  But I've convinced myself that the absolute maximum the Twins can sanely hope for, from this particular contract, is a total WAR of 9, whether in one season or spread across multiple.
"I'll Do The Homework Later."  Good, I don't blame you.  To recap: the Twins stand to reap 9 WAR as a maximum, by signing Correa - go back and do the homework if you think it should be higher, I really don't think you'll come up with a sound argument.  The Twins' maximum risk is $105.3M.  We don't expect the latter to happen, but that's the risk.
Now, let's compare.  What if a deep-pockets team had gone ahead and instead given Correa a 10-year $325M contract like some were saying, and let's assume no opt-outs?  Let's do a quick version of the max risk/reward analysis for that - bear with me for one paragraph.  As before, the maximum risk on the contract is simple: $325M is on the line, win lose or Tommy John Surgery.  What's the maximum reward?  If we're allowing a chance at an MVP-like 9 WAR before, we need to do it again.  He might do that in any of the 10 years of the contract, but let's don't go crazy and think he does it every time.  Let's say 1 year of 9 WAR, and a 7 (a second monster year), a couple years of 5 WAR (still a huge asset), three more years of 3 WAR (above average), and then 1 WAR each of the other three years if he hits a steep decline or sprinkles in an injury-plagued season or two earlier in the sequence.  So really, I'm not talking absolute maximum after all, merely an optimistic outlook for a window of contention involving a great player.  Those 10 numbers, they all add up to 38 WAR.  A starry-eyed optimist could look at a potential future hall-of famer and come up with an argument for more, like 50 - meaning inner-circle HoF, which I can't honestly rule out for him at age 27 - he's less than halfway through his career and is more than halfway to HoF status IMO.  But let's go with 38. 
Estimated performance would likely be lower but remember, this is max risk and max reward.
So, put yourself in the Yankees' shoes.  Do you risk $105.3M for at most 8 WAR, like the Twins are doing?  Or do you say, **** that, I mean forget that, we're rich, and by tripling our risk, we can more than triple our potential reward.  Isn't that what smart money does?
So I think they, New York, say no to the smaller contract.  They have deep pockets, and won't risk significant money for modest maximum reward, when they could invest 3X as much in risk and really hit the jackpot.
Max risk and max reward are not the only analyses a team would make.  Not by a long shot.  Anticipated actual cost and estimated reward also are crucial.  Let's say 4 WAR for 2021 to reward the (very likely) $35.1M he gets from the Twins.  Compare that to maybe 30 WAR over a 10 year contract that costs $325M.  Now the dollars per WAR are much more favorable to the short contract - it is center-cut after all, an advantage not shared by the full 10-year cut of meat.
But likely outcomes aren't enough.  A front-office that didn't present a solid risk/reward analysis, which I have merely half-assed in this lengthy post, would be laughed out of the room by their higher-ups - if, that is, the higher-ups had an actual sense of humor and were in a forgiving mood and didn't fire them for lack of due diligence.
Bottom line, this is a mid-market contract, in my estimation.  The expected reward fits the expected price, but the risks are disproportionate.  A big team goes big.  No regrets for the Yankees.  This is the kind of deal the Twins have to embrace, but by no means did they "put one over on them" when they traded Donaldson to the Yanks to free up the cash to make this happen.  The Twins had to, in effect, buy Correa a $70.2M insurance policy, to get him to commit to just one year at $35.1M.  It probably adds $10M to the cost that the team's CPA has to factor in.
Thanks for your patience.  I welcome nit-picks, or bigger criticisms.
 
 
* Let's assume a small meteor, and like in Princess Bride he's only mostly dead, yet still slightly alive and expecting direct deposits at his bank to continue

Everybody's trying to save baseball from something. Things aren't the way they oughta be. Or they're not the way they were. Baseball purists tilt a windmills and sling arrows at one another with one goal in mind - keep The Game intact for the future. The generational hand-off has to occur, or The Game gets lost.
What's really at stake? What are we fighting for? Real life has enough to engage us. There are plenty of other sports. What makes baseball so noble? Just recently, many denigrated the sport as "just a game" when the owners and players fought for their own visions for the future of the sport. The players get to play a kid's game for a living. The diamond is not real life. So many complaints, and yet many of those incensed will come back to the game with their money in hand.
Baseball, after the first pitch is thrown, runs on its own hourglass. I'm not the first person to notice baseball games take as long as they take. A new pitch clock won't change that. The game lasts until the final out is recorded. And I'd be resorting to a cliche if I mentioned baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. 
The world, however, has moved so very far away from that baseball ethos. Look at where we are. Seriously. We're literally suffering through two of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse. Where are you getting your doom from? It's always in your pocket, waiting on your cell phone. You can take a quick break at work and use that office computer to keep tabs on the spreading darkness. Make sure you only check in with the news agencies that share your point of view. We're always behind and we're sprinting every day.
When a baseball game is being played, your brain has a chance to work through all the angles. Like a chess game, to borrow another cliche. The organist plays along as you ponder coaching decisions under the sky and the stars. The world is shrunk down to one problem, Home versus Away.  Baseball rewards you for paying attention and using your brain. If you miss the plot, you miss a lot. 
When we save baseball, we save ourselves. At least, we save the part of ourselves that has time to sit with a problem and take the time to work on it. When the game is done, we're back to real life. Everything moves fast and if you can't win the first time, don't try. We lack patience.
Fixing baseball is dangerous. If it loses patience and thoughtfulness, it loses its identity. And we can't afford to lose more parts of society that reward patience and thoughtfulness. Take a child to a baseball game the way it is now and, true, they might be bored. But boredom doesn't kill kids. Give that kid some of your time and explain the game. Watch the joy on their face when they start to see the inner cogs of the mental game. Congratulations! You just shared a valuable life skill. You just taught a kid about relationships and strategies.
Because The Game is STILL The Game. It's been The Game since before the Civil War, and it's more important now than ever because the world is broken. Life is fragile - it's even more fragile when the threat of war and more war looms over the world. Baseball isn't the only solution, but I firmly believe it is one solution. The kids will come to baseball and they will learn to be patient and thoughtful and they'll transfer those skills into navigating a treacherous, hostile world. If the kids never learn those skills in this fast-paced, chaotic world, it's not baseball that will be lost.  It's us.

Welcome to Twinternationals! This is a space for Twins fans from different countries to read about their team in their native language. This section is run by Venezuelan Mariana Guzmán (@TwinsLatinos) and Brazilian Thiéres Rabelo (@TwinsBrasil). Today's entry is written in Portuguese.

Por Thiéres Rabelo
Graças ao bom Deus o beisebol está de volta! Na noite desta quinta-feira (10) a MLB e a Associação de Jogadores chegaram a um acordo para um novo Acordo Coletivo (CBA) e a temporada regular irá acontecer de maneira normal.
Dentre várias coisas, esse acordo finalmente libera os clubes para recomeçarem a free agency, em busca de assinar com agentes livres ou procurar trocas com outros clubes. É agora que o futuro de cada time em 2022 será definido. Para refrescar nossas memórias, vamos olhar hoje como está o elenco do Twins e discutir algumas das principais necessidades que a equipe tem.
O elenco atual – Jogadores de posição
No elenco de 40 jogadores do Twins estão, na data de hoje, apenas 38 atletas, sendo 16 jogadores de posição e 22 arremessadores. Antes de a MLB entrar em lockout no início de dezembro, Minnesota havia feito somente duas movimentações de mercado:
Renovou por sete anos o contrato de sua principal estrela, o CF Byron Buxton, após meses de indefinição; Assinou contrato de um ano com o SP Dylan Bundy, que disputou as duas últimas temporadas pelo Angels; No ataque, o Twins vai precisar contar com a sorte neste ano, pois ela não esteve do seu lado no ano passado. O lineup do time tem peças muito fortes, com seis jogadores terminando a temporada 2021 com wRC+ acima da média (que é 100), e cinco desses seis tendo pelo menos 110 de wRC+. A falta de sorte à qual me refiro é que vários desses jogadores sofreram com lesões no ano passado e não puderam ter uma temporada completa.
Os dois que chamam mais atenção são os casos de Byron Buxton e Mitch Garver. Nenhum dos dois conseguiu chegar a sequer 260 aparições ao bastão (PA) no ano, mas eles tiveram, respectivamente, 169 e 137 de wRC+. Outros jogadores de posição importantes que perderam tempo de jogo por lesão foram Miguel Sanó, Luis Arráez e Josh Donaldson. Então, se esse grupo conseguir ficar saudável, o ataque tem tudo para ter outra temporada acima da média.
Mas é claro que cabem reforços. O ataque busca, atualmente, preencher alguns buracos. Andrelton Simmons foi o SS titular do ano passado e, apesar de prover uma defesa fantástica, ele era um peso morto no ataque. Com a posição de SS tendo sua melhor “safra” em free agency em um bom tempo, é possível que o clube vá atrás de algum grande nome. Meu favorito seria Trevor Story.
No campo externo, vários jogadores fizeram revezamento para ocupar principalmente a posição de LF, deixada vaga pela saída de Eddie Rosario ao fim de 2020. Os calouros Brent Rooker e Trevor Larnach foram os que mais vezes foram escalados na posição, mas nenhum dos dois teve bom desempenho ao bastão (ambos terminaram o ano com apenas 89 de wRC+). No caso de Larnach, para piorar, houve ainda o problema das lesões, que o tiraram de boa parte da temporada e impediram que ele adquirisse ritmo de jogo. Não seria uma loucura se o Twins decidisse ir atrás de alguém no mercado para a função, mas eu, particularmente, preferiria insistir em Larnach, que tem muito talento.
Outra posição que poderia ser reforçada é a de 1B. Sanó teve um ano bom, passando das 500 PA pela primeira vez na carreira e voltando a rebater 30 home runs depois de dois anos. Ele também reduziu consideravelmente sua taxa de strikeouts, conseguindo a menor marca de sua carreira (apesar de alta na média da MLB), com 34,4%. Mas, com a saída de Nelson Cruz na trade deadline do ano passado, é possível que ele passe a ser o rebatedor designado titular.
Assim, para a primeira base, Minnesota teria que decidir se daria nova chance ao ótimo garoto Alex Kirilloff ou se procuraria alguém no mercado. Kirilloff teve sua boa temporada de estréia nas ligas maiores interrompida por uma lesão no punho que precisou de cirurgia. Apesar disso, o que ele mostrou nos 59 jogos que pôde disputar foi muito animador. Assim como no caso de Larnach, eu acho que a solução para a posição já está dentro do elenco.
Por fim, caso assine com um novo SS, Minnesota terá a chance de ter vindo do banco o excelente Luis Arráez, que só não é titular na segunda base hoje porque Polanco teve a melhor temporada de sua carreira no ano passado e foi o melhor rebatedor da equipe. O venezuelano é extremamente menosprezado MLB afora, muito pelo fato de as lesões terem-no atrapalhado desde que subiu para as grandes ligas, em 2019. No ano passado, entre jogadores com pelo menos 400 PA, ele liderou o time em OBP, com .375.
Além dele, os outros jogadores que possivelmente estarão no banco de reservas são atletas que têm muito a provar: Ryan Jeffers, como reserva direto de Garver, Nick Gordon, o “coringa” que pode atuar no campo interno e no externo, e Rooker, que além de ser o quarto homem de OF, também pode contribuir como 1B e como DH.
Em suma, se eu fosse escalar o lineup do Twins somente com os jogadores que estão no elenco hoje – e contando com o milagre de todos permanecerem saudáveis por toda a temporada –, o meu lineup seria este:

Bom por hoje é só com esta primeira parte da análise. No próximo texto, vou falar sobre o que pode ser feito para que nossos grupo de arremessadores não tenha uma temporada tão ruim como foi a do ano passado.
Are you a Twins fan from outside the USA? Would you like to have a text in your native language feature at Twinternationals? Please contact one of us on Twitter and let's talk about it!

Hey, it’s the Christmas season and there’s no real baseball on TV. Nor is there any real baseball news, and I don’t want to discuss one more time whether the Twins are in rebuild or retool mode.
But it’s a wonderful life, and there are movies to watch. On a recent road trip with my son, we tried to come up with the starting lineup on the All-Time Baseball Movie team. These are the fictional guys. It would be too easy to insert Lou Gehrig from Pride of the Yankees and Babe Ruth from any number of films.
Here’s what we’ve got. Add your comments and rebuttals below.
Leading off and playing center field, we have to go with the speedster Willie Mays Hayes from Major League. The original version, not Major League II, III or whatever they’re up to by now. When you hit like Mays and run like Hayes, you gotta be in the lineup. Hayes is a tough call in center over Kelly Leake from Bad News Bears and Benny “The Jet” Rodriguez from The Sandlot, but you clearly gotta keep the latter on the roster as a pinch runner.
Batting second and playing left field will be Shoeless Joe. I know that I said this is fictional and Joe Jackson was real, but the movie is clearly a fantasy, and we’re talking about perhaps the best-known character in the genre. With that line drive back through the box off Ray, he’s clearly adept at going with the pitch, a skill we’re looking for in our No. 2 hitter.
Batting third, where we want one of our best hitters, we have to go with The Natural, Roy Hobbs. He plays rightfield and has the lineup’s best walk-up music. If you don’t believe that, just stay after any minor league game for the fireworks show and you’ll get a listen.
It’s not intentional to have worked our way around the outfield with top three spots in the order, but it came out that way. We’re kinda going to continue that by finding a way to get Major Leaguer Pedro Cerrano’s bat in the lineup, which we’ll do in the cleanup spot as the DH. Movies don’t tend to have the DH in a starring role, but Jobu hits the fastball very much. Oh, and don’t steal his rum.
Catcher is tough. Some of the genre’s best characters are behind the plate. I know I’m going to get flack for not choosing Crash Davis from Bull Durham, but the dude’s a career minor league. Stay tuned, I’ve got a spot for him. Similarly, Jake Taylor from Major League is a gamer, a masterful bunter and a great handler of a pitching staff. And then there’s Hamilton Porter from The Sandlot. I don’t think I can go with him, but we need him on the bench – there can’t be a better bench jockey and trash talker in the league.
But all those pale compare to the one who truly was in a League of her (Their) Own, Dottie Hinson. She’ll woman the backstop and bat fifth.
Following her in the lineup and batting sixth is her teammate. Playing second base, we have the window breaking slugger, Marla Hooch.
First base is a hitter’s spot, but it’s actually a little weak in the movies. Granted, Clu Heywood leads the Major League in most offensive categories, including nose hair, but we only want the good guys on our team, so we can’t use him. Similarly, Mr. 3000 is just such a bad movie that I’m not going to use Stan Ross. That leaves us with another aging slugger, back from Japan, Mr. Baseball Jack Eliot, and he’ll bat seventh.
Third base is another sparse one. The potentially obvious choice here is Roger Dorn, but he pretty much showed himself a clubhouse cancer throughout Major League, so we’ll have to pass. Instead, we’ll go with our third pick from League of Their Own, Doris Murphy. She can rub teammates the wrong way, as witnessed by her taking on Kit Hinson after a rough game, but she’s clearly a gamer, the kind of player who want as a spark batting near the bottom of the lineup at No. 8.
Finally, we need a shortstop. Amazingly with such a glamour position, I couldn’t come up with a good standout shortstop from a baseball movie. I mean, with his way of coaching up teammates, it seems likely that “The Jet” Rodriguez could pull out his inner Cesar Tovar and play there, but I don’t think he actually does in the movie.
But I’ve got an unnamed sleeper. Unnamed in that I couldn’t remember his name ever being used in the movie. But you need defense up the middle, and with that final play to come in and bare hand the tipped ball to preserve the perfecto at the end of “For Love of the Game,” this unnamed guy will play short and bat ninth.
By contrast, though it may seem that the lineup is a bit weak at the bottom, we’ve got a loaded rotation. He is, by definition, a Rookie (of the Year), but with the bionic arm, Henry Rowengartner is in the mix. I like to work young guys in slowly, so I’m going to start him at No. 5 in the rotation.
And speaking of youth, we’ll have another youngster in the No. 4 spot, Amanda Wurlitzer from the Bad News Bears. Despite her youth, she does have championship experience, leading the Bears to the title game. At No. 3, we’ll go with Bingo Long from his Traveling All-Stars & Motor Kings. He’s based on Satchel Paige, so that’s impressive.
Picking between the top two spots were tough, but I had to go with experience. I like Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh’s million dollar arm in Bull Durham, but I don’t want someone with a five-cent head getting the start on opening day, so he’ll have to wait for game two.
Which means that our opening day starter will be Billy Chapel from For Love of the Game. When you wrap up your Hall of Fame career with a perfect game and demonstrate that “the cathedral that is Yankee Stadium belongs to a Chapel,” you’ve shown you have the moxie to get the Opening Day start.
There’s several noteworthy candidates to fill out the staff while pitching out of the bullpen, including Kit Hinson from League of the Their and Eddie Harris from Major League, but we know that it will be the Wild Thing, Ricky Vaughn from Major League, marching out of the bullpen to close games after a stellar career in the California Penal League. The team’s top pitching prospect is the newly signed Rigo (“Peanut Boy”) Sanchez from Trouble with the Curve.
So there’s the roster. But before we get away, we have to recognize that it takes more than players to run a team. You need a coaching staff, for example, and baseball movies have given us a few. Because they formed the best manager/coach duo, our team will be led by Pop Fisher and Red Blow from The Natural. There are other noteworthy coach/managers who can fill out the coaching staff, namely Frank Perry (For Love of the Game), Jimmy Dugan (League of Their Own) and Lou Brown (Major League). I’m big on character, so it’s against my better judgment, but I did save a spot for Morris Buttermaker from the Bad News Bears. Also in the dugout will young Bobby Savoy (The Natural) as our batboy.
Billy Heywood from Little Big League was a choice for the coaching staff, but I realized that he has to be the team owner, since several other of the team owners portrayed are dirtbags. Think of Rachel Phelps from Major League and The Judge from The Natural. Heywood’s more seasoned ownership partners include Gary Wheeler (For Love of the Game) and candy bar mogul Walter Harvey (League of Their Own).
Also in the team’s administration is GM Ira Lowenstein (League of Their Own). He oversees a scouting staff that includes by Gus Lobel (Trouble with the Curve) and Ernie Capadino (A League of Their Own). The latter is known for his skill in negotiating contracts, as demonstrated in signing the Hinson sisters. For astutely observing how much better Pete Taylor has been playing since his parents came to visit, Pete Klein (Trouble with the Curve) will head the team’s analytics department. Heading the scouting staff, and likely working her way up to GM on her own, is Mickey Lobel from Trouble with the Curve.
With such a varied range of experience on our team, there are bound to be injuries, and we’ve got the best possible medical staff in place. Heading the group is Doc Archibald (Moonlight) Graham from Field of Dreams. Assisting him, with specializations in providing CPR and overseeing the pool at the training facility is Wendy Peffercorn from The Sandlot.
A team like this needs a place to play, and fortunately they have stadium architect extraordinaire Ray Kinsella (Field of Dreams). As noted above, I do have a backup plan for Crash Davis. He’ll assist Ray as groundskeeper, with particular expertise in managing the irrigation system. Also of note in game day management is Frank Drummond (Naked Gun), who will serve as stadium security. He’s also been known to fill in for Enrico Polazzo in singing the National Anthem.
A team like this certainly deserves media coverage. Again, there’s lots to choose from in the broadcasting department, since using an announcer is often part of what helps the plot flow in sports movies. They’re playing themselves, so our rules keep us from naming John Gordon (Little Big League), Vin Scully (For Love of the Game) and Curt Gowdy, Jim Palmer, Tim McCarver, Mel Allen, Dick Enberg and Dick Vitale, all from Naked Gun. But even if that rule didn’t apply, the broadcasting gig would still have to go to Harry Doyle from Major League.
And finally, we need someone to wax eloquent and write Roger Angell-like essays. The clear choice for that would be Terrance Mann.
So, how’d I do? Who’d I miss?

Full transparency: This is not a team intending to compete in 2022.  This team is loading up for 2023.
Trades and Extensions:
Sign Byron Buxton to a 7 year, 119M contract with incentives
Trade with Florida Marlins - Mitch Garver for SP Sixto Sanchez 
Trade with New York Mets - Josh Donaldson (plus 14M spread over two years) for RP Jose Butto
Let Colome walk.  Release Austidillo, Refsnyder, Minaya, and Cave.
Free Agency: 
Sign Corey Seager a 5 year 27M contract to play shortstop
Sign Michael Pineda back to a 2 year 24M contract with incentives
Sign Jon Gray to a 3 year 45M contract
Sign Sandy Leon to a 1 year, 2M contract
Sign Leury Garcia to a 1 year 5M contract
Sign Corey Knebel to a 3 year 24M contract
Sign Ehire Adrianza to a 2 year, 3M contract
Lineup/Defense
C - Jeffers  500k
1B - Kiriloff  500k
2B - Polanco 5.5M
SS - Seager 27M
3B - Arraez 2M
LF - Rooker 500k
CF - Buxton 17M
RF - Kepler 6.75M
DH - Sano 9.25M
Bench - Gordon 500k
Bench - Sandy Leon 2M
Bench - Leury Garcia 5M
Bench - Garlick or Larnach 500k
Bench - Adrianza 1.5M
Regular Lineup - Arraez-Buxton-Seager-Polanco-Kiriloff-Sano-Kepler-Rooker-Jeffers
Rotation/Bullpen
SP - Gray 15M
SP - Ryan 500k 
SP - Ober 500k
SP - Pineda 12M
SP - Sixto Sanchez 500k
CL - Rogers 6.7M
BP - Alcala 500k
BP - Duffey 3.7M
BP - Theilbar 1.2M
BP - Knebel 8M
BP - Dobnak 800k
BP - Gant 3.7
Total Salary: 138.6M  (Including the 7M deferred)
Rotation Depth: Gant, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Balazovic, Winder, Duran, SWR 
Bullpen Depth: Butto, Thorpe, Moran, Stashak, Strotman? Other assorted AA and AAA guys
OF Depth: Larnach needs to hit himself into a job. Marten should be a guy looking to get the job in LF.  As soon as mid-summer.  Almost the entire bench, plus Kiriloff and Arraez can also play in the OF.  
IF Depth - Adrianza is a jack of all trades, Gordon as well.  Being a lefty and a switch hitter gives some options for lineups.  Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda should be in this conversation mid-summer as well.
Catching depth: Leon exists to give Ben Rotrevedt time to be the long-term backup.  
 
The idea here is that 2022 is a transition year.  So, let Rooker/Larnach and Jeffers and Arraez play. Martin is going to take 2B or LF eventually.  Lewis and Miranda are going to be up to take over other positions eventually.  The team is strong up the middle, depth is better, and the team is primed for a 2023 coming out party.  Ditto the rotation - Gallen, Sanchez, Ryan, Ober, and the fleet of young arms gives this team options and upside.  Bullpen is stabilized.
 
By September 1 I’d love to see this group:  Seager-Buxton-Polanco-Kiriloff--Marten-Larnach-Miranda-Kepler-Jeffers  with a rotation of Gray-Ryan-Ober-Sanchez-Duran/Balazovic  That group is an upgrade here or there in 2023 from being a real force if we develop our talented youngsters.
 
 
 

Like Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach has failed to impress in his rookie season, but Larnach has a lot more wiggle room for many fans. Larnach is, after all, 2 years younger than Rooker and Larnach barely played above the A+ ball level with only 181 plate appearances in AA in 2019. The loss of the 2020 season made a mess out of a lot of the projections for prospects with the prospects who were getting their first taste of the high minors in AA probably being hit the hardest. Larnach’s production this year hasn’t been what fans had hoped for, but with his limited upper MiLB experience, there’s reason to hope it was bad luck or a single pitch that troubled him on way to his .223/.322/.350, .677 OPS, wRC+ 89, OPS+ 88, wOBA .301 performance across a significant 301 appearances at the plate.

Since Larnach doesn’t have the MiLB track record Rooker does, it’s important to take a peek at who Larnach was expected to be. Prior to his draft year in 2018, Larnach was a 40th round draft pick out of high school in 2015 and wasn’t considered a high round pick before his breakout junior season at Oregon State.
Year Level Age AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS 2016 Oregon St. Freshman .157 .271 .176 .019 .448 2017 Oregon St. Sophomore .303 .421 .429 .126 .850 2018 Oregon St. Junior .348 .463 .652 .304 1.116 2018 Rk / Low-A a21 .303 .390 .500 .197 .890 2019 A+ / AA a22 .309 .384 .458 .149 .842 2021 MLB a24 .223 .322 .350 .127 .672 2021 AAA a24 .176 .323 .373 .197 .695 After the draft, MLB.com had Larnach as the Twins’ 6th ranked prospect and gave him scouting grades as follows: Hit 55, Power 55, Run 40, Arm 55, Field 50, Overall 50. Larnach was widely considered a bat only prospect due to his poor speed limiting Larnach to projections of a serviceable defensive option in left field. Larnach’s hit tool was considered very advanced as he drove the ball hard off the bat, had experience in the Cape Cod league with wooden bats against high levels of competition and used the entire field which largely made him immune to shifts. That said, Larnach’s hit tool wasn’t considered plus-plus because of the fair amount of swing and miss at the plate. Once in college, Larnach had raw strength and bat speed from putting on 50lbs of weight to his high school frame, but his draft stock stayed low through his sophomore year as he needed to hit for power to generate high interest levels. When Larnach’s power appeared to blossom with 19 home runs in 2018 as a junior in a tough college division, scouts rocketed Larnach up the draft ranks despite the limited track record as it was always felt he had the potential to grow into the long ball. 
Unfortunately, Larnach’s swing looks to be more like Joe Mauer than Justin Morneau so the home run power hasn’t re-materialized and 2018’s long ball show is beginning to look more like an aberration than the norm. Larnach’s ceiling is likely far lower now, but it doesn’t mean he can’t provide value at the MLB level using only an advanced hit tool and serviceable defense in the corners; he’s just not going to be projecting as a regular All Star. That would still be a huge win for the front office. So let’s dive into the metrics to see what’s going on cause this year was ugly.

First off, was Larnach just unlucky in his first taste of the big show? Luck can bounce both ways and a half season worth of baseball can quickly shift around across a full season of plate appearances.
  AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA Actual .223 .322 .350 .672 .301 Expected* .208 .309 .369 .678 .304 *BaseballSavant has xBA at .209 which results in 54.34 hits, but since that’s not a real number, I rounded down to 54 hits. His xSLG was .368 which resulted in 95.68 bases so I rounded up to 96 for xSLG calcs. I used Larnach’s actual walks and hit by pitch numbers to calculate his new xOBP so I could calculate his xOPS.
There isn’t an obvious luck factor to see in the numbers. A few points of AVG loss is more than made up for by some SLG improvement. As a player who was touted as using the whole field, Larnach has been pretty pull heavy with a 39.9% / 33.5% / 26.6% pull, center, opposite ratio, from BaseballSavant, but it’s not a profile where the split would be particularly effective. Still, Fangraphs reports MLB teams frequently deployed the shift against Larnach anyway. None of Larnach’s home runs went to the opposite field this year with virtually everything in left field just winding up as a single. The lack of home runs and extra base hits is to be expected once Larnach’s batted ball data is reviewed; he’s been a heavy ground ball hitter at about 45% grounders. Fangraphs and BaseballSavant differ in the fly ball data with Fangraphs showing 35.4% vs. BaseballSavant’s 29.7%. Despite the relatively poor outcomes for Larnach, he does hit the ball fairly hard as advertised with an above average 90.0 mph exit velocity, and MLB average-ish 41.1% hard hit and 9.5% barrel rates according to Statcast metrics. Larnach’s reported launch angle should be a productive, but non-optimal 13.1* despite all the grounders. It’s also worth looking into his splits performance, since he is a lefty. In regard to that, he was utterly unplayable against LHP with a wRC+ of 44, but his performance against RHP isn’t truly good enough to justify a platoon role with a wRC+ of 109. It does provide some silver lining since southpaws throw less than 30% of innings at the MLB level. A step forward could make Larnach a platoon type player.
 
 
 All this brings us to plate discipline. Larnach’s solid enough 10.3% walk rate suggests he has a capable enough eye at the plate, but the 34.6% strikeout rate is well below MLB average so lets dig in here a bit. Warning… here’s where it goes off the rails. Larnach has a somewhat better than average O-swing% (swings outside the strike zone) which supports the argument for an MLB caliber eye at the plate shown in the chart.

However, the PitchFX and PitchInfo data from Fangraphs O-contact% rates at abysmal 38.2% and 32.9%, respectively. Expanding beyond the O-swing results shows Larnach is passive at the plate, swinging only 43.8% of the time (bottom 17.5%) with the 3rd worst contact rate among the 252 batters with 300+ plate appearances in MLB this year. Lending support to being passive at the plate, Larnach takes a called strike 18.1% of the time, which is more often than over 3/4 of other MLB batters. Honestly, it looks like Larnach is struggling to tell balls from strikes so he’s hoping for a walk or a meatball, but when he does swing, he often misjudges the pitch and winds up whiffing. In fact, whiffing more often than 96% of other MLB batters with 300+ plate appearances based on Fangraphs’ data. It’s bad. It’s real bad.

We know Larnach is struggling with pitch recognition based on the data, but is it a specific pitch or pitch category where he might be able to adjust his game to prevent being exposed? Unfortunately, no. Larnach crushes 4 seam fastballs, but he doesn’t really hit much else. The data from BaseballSavant shows he’s utterly outmatched by MLB secondary pitches in general.
  xBA xSLG xwOBA Whiff% Fastball .266 .515 .377 22.3 Breaking .155 .236 .260 55.0 Offspeed .158 .225 .192 54.0 Looking into Larnach’s run value by pitch on BaseballSavant shows Larnach cannot identify a changeup (18.4% of pitches), cannot handle sliders (19.0% of pitches) and also struggles greatly against sinkers (15.9% of pitches). Larnach has been a little better than MLB average against curveballs (11.3% of pitches), though. Essentially, don’t throw Larnach a 4 seamer or curveball and the opposing pitcher will probably be fine. It’s worth noting Fangraphs’ data from PitchFX and PitchInfo both back up BaseballSavant’s data. Comparing Larnach to other MLB hitters based on PitchFX data from Fangraphs, Larnach is in the bottom 5% for changeup and bottom 30% for the slider performance, but that’s a raw runs produced number without context of how many pitches he’s seen of each. Looking at BaseballSavant, Larnach is bottom 4% for changeup (7/175), 9% for slider (25/290) and 11% for sinker (25/245) per pitch seen, based on hitters with at least 50 plate appearances vs. those pitches. There are literally no pitches which Larnach produces positive value other than the 4 seam fastball… and maybe ever so slightly, the curveball depending on the source.
Defensively, Larnach’s speed is his limiting factor already at just age 24. Larnach’s sprint speed is 26.5ft/sec which is significantly below median for MLB or corner outfielders at 27.3 or 27.5ft/sec, respectively. That said, Larnach does accelerate to his top speed quickly and he’s been an average MLB route runner despite limited experience. This lives up to the scouting reports at draft day which said Larnach possesses good baseball instincts in the field to help make up for his disadvantage in speed. In addition, Larnach has arm strength which is graded above average which should help prevent base runners from confidently stretching their hits for another base or carelessly tagging to advance. Larnach is unlikely to ever be an average or plus defender on the field, but he may remain serviceable for a few years, especially with good positioning and a steady position to play.
Let’s summarize the good and bad here. On the good side of things, Larnach can clearly crush 4 seamers and was solid against curveballs despite his limited experience against high level pitching and loss of the 2020 season for development against full competition. Pitchers looking to get an out aren’t going to be able to do it with Larnach at the plate simply by throwing heat past him as he’ll catch up to it and make them pay and woe be the righty pitcher who with a 4 seamer and curveball as their bread and butter. When Larnach makes contact with his swings, he hits the ball a little better than the MLB average hitter with good exit velocity and he was able to accomplish those things despite having very little experience at the high MiLB level. Larnach’s instincts in the field are good, he makes the most of his physical abilities and the combination of skills and ability allow him to play corner outfield effectively enough so he’s not a glorified DH at this point in his career. Furthermore, Larnach was just getting a good taste of AA before the lost 2020 season and his call up to the MLB squad was potentially hastened by other player injuries, perhaps a bit earlier than the Twins wanted. With encouraging numbers from AA in 2019, the 2021 campaigns struggles may just be a bad season influenced by confidence issues and Larnach is still relatively young coming into his age 25 season next year. Finally, Larnach has plenty of MLB options left to give him room to take a step forward. Of course, that’s the optimistic view. On the not good side, Larnach is not particularly young for a prospect, either as he approaches the end point for prospect status at age 25, and while he did lose out on 2020 in terms of professional seasons, he was part of the Twins alternate site where he got a lot of valuable coaching time. Larnach was arguably more advanced than other college juniors when he was drafted because of his experience in the Cape Cod league which uses wooden bats and he was scouted as a polished bat who wouldn’t need much time to get up to MLB ready. He’s had some time now and his small, but somewhat  relevant sample size from his demotion to AAA wasn’t encouraging. There’s a big difference between AA and AAA when it comes to location and refinement of pitches, the polish, so to speak. There are a lot of players who can’t make that adjustment and given how poorly Larnach handled MLB pitches, it may not be a coincidence he wasn’t able to hit in AAA. In fact, Larnach was totally and completely outmatched by most pitches MLB pitchers throw and his track record, age, current swing and batted ball data don’t leave a lot of room for power projection so being the kind of hitter who can simply punish any mistake for a home run like Sano doesn’t seem like it’s in the cards. 
Clearly, it would be foolish to write Trevor Larnach off at this point, but there's good reason to cool his stock dramatically. Let's hope he can make some adjustments to prove this data isn't the norm and he just had a bad season!
 

Well... do you, punk?
Last July, we started a new community initiative where we offer prizes for the most liked posts and blog entries on the site. We'll post these awards four times a year: first half of the season, second half of the season, offseason, and spring training. Probably. Unless it becomes a miserable experience, at which point we reserve the right to stop at any time.
These prizes... aren't great, to put it bluntly. They kinda stemmed me from reading comic books in the 1980s and loving the "No-Prize" award in every letters page written by the editor of Marvel Comics, signed off by Stan Lee and wow... I'm getting old real fast with that sentence so I'm gonna stop.
But the prizes, while not great, are incredible.
This season has been such a train wreck, such a total collapse of all things at once, such a complete and utter failure across the board that it was difficult to decide which of the many ripe fruits I should pick off the Minnesota Twins 2021 tree to celebrate this season finally coming to a close. But ultimately, I had to go back to the source of our collective misfortune and, at that point, it became clear what most needed celebration: the 2021 Minnesota Twins bullpen. And once that clicked into place, I realized there was only one place I could go with the second half community prize:
A Ron Davis commemorative display.
This display not only features Ron Davis' epic 1984 campaign with the Minnesota Twins but it also features Ron Davis' epic 1984 campaign with the Minnesota Twins.
2021 Twins fans surely can commiserate with everything I said - and didn't say - in that sentence.
But there's more than just a few trinkets included in this display, as the below video will show to you skeptics still standing in the back:
Ron Davis Commemorative Display Prize Ron Davis Prize.mp4
Yes, you heard that right. That is Grammy award-winning artist Sarah McLachlin singing her 1997 hit "Angel" from her 8x platinum album, Surfacing.
So if you have the nerve, feel the moxy, can be the spoon, will channel your inner Randball's Stu... this perfect piece of Twins history could be yours, all you have to do is write the most popular post in the Twins Daily community. That could be a comment on a news story, a reply to a blog post, or even a blog comment.
For the lucky person who can be all those things to all those people all at the same time, you will win the ultimate piece of Minnesota Twins memorabilia.
I know, you just want this thing so much but remember, YOU HAVE TO EARN IT.
Just like Ron Davis.

With the 2021 season just about wrapped up for the Minnesota Twins, here’s yet another article to talk about starting pitching and why dumpster diving or even mid-tier free agent starters are actually much riskier than the top free agent starters with those big contracts.
Conventional Twins wisdom is that big name, free agent starters are simply too expensive and too risky. Jim Pohlad is very skittish when it comes to long contracts and big dollars. The idea of “crippling” a roster also sends some Twins fans into a panic. It makes sense, after all, the Twins free agent pitchers almost never actually pan out for more than a year.
For this year, the Twins’ front office decided not to pursue an arm to replace Odorizzi, leaving a major hole in the middle of the rotation. Instead, Happ and Shoemaker were signed to contracts all too typical of the Twins’ front office. The cost? $10MM utterly wasted. That said, the Twins are absolutely spending ace starter money in free agency and acquisitions every single year and have been spending $30-43MM annually for those arms for 7 consecutive seasons coming into 2021. I even adjusted the salaries for players which were traded away… Read it and weep.
Median WAR = middle bWAR season performance with 2020 being multiplied by 2.7 due to the shortened season. Total WAR = Total bWAR over the life of the entire contract, even if the player was traded away. $/WAR = Entire Contract Dollars, Adjusted for 2020 / Total bWAR, Not Adjusted for 2020. The salary figures shown are not adjusted for 2020 so they can be viewed in proper context.  
  Med. Tot $                 Player WAR WAR /WAR 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Correia -1.1 -1.1 -5 6               Pelfrey 0.4 0.8 13.8 6 6             Hughes -0.1 5.5 11.9 8 9 9 13 8 7     Nolasco 0.5 2 24 12 12 8 4         Milone 0.8 0.9 8.1   3 5           Santana 0.5 9.8 5.6   14 14 14 14 1     Santiago 0.2 0.3 32.7     2 8         Odorizzi 1.2 4.4 6.1         6 10 18   Pineda 0.8 3.3 8         2 8 10 10 Lynn 0.4 0.4 25         10       Perez 0.1 0.1 40           4     Maeda 2.7 1.8 2.7             3 3 Bailey 0.5 0.2 22             7   Hill 2.1 0.8 2.4             3   Shoemaker -1.9 -1.9 -1.1               2 Happ -1.8 -1.8 -4.4               8                           Season Total 31 43 37 38.7 39.8 29.5 40.8 23
 
In fact, almost none of the Twins signings and acquisitions were worth it, including the starters who were actually “worth the money” because they still weren’t worth starting. For example, Tommy Milone only cost $8.1MM / WAR. That’s an A grade signing. He was worth every bit of the money he was paid, on am average season. But he still wasn’t good enough to actually want him in the rotation. What about Ervin Santana? We all know what a huge asset he was over his first couple seasons and the Twins got one WAR for only $5.6MM which is an A+ kind of deal. The big issue is he was terrible over his last two years, dragging his median performance way down.
Ace = 4.0 WAR+ #2 = 3.0-4.0 WAR #3 = 2.5-3.0 WAR #4 = 2.0-2.5 WAR #5 = 1.5-2.0 WAR I’ve also adjusted the median values for 2020’s short season. That’s the problem with dumpster dives and even mid-tier free agents. All it takes is a slight decline and poof, all the money is utterly wasted because you’re paying guaranteed money to a starter who isn’t worth playing.
Well, everybody knows big free agent contracts never work out though, right? Wrong. Big name, free agent starters are almost always worth it. This is for two reasons. First, they often perform at ace levels even if they decline a bit, but if they take a major hit or injury, they almost always bounce back as a solid starter in the rotation. The money is virtually never totally wasted like it often is on mediocre or low cost starters. Of the 8 front line free agent starters signed since 2014, every single one of them has been worth a rotation spot in an average year. Most are even good deals. Don’t believe me again?
  Med. Tot $                                 Player WAR WAR /WAR Future? 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Grade Lester 2.1 13.2 9.6 - 30 20 20 23 25 28                 B Greinke 4.2 17.9 10.3 - 34 34 34 35 35 35                 C Scherzer 5.5 41.4 4.1 - 17 22 22 22 37 36 35 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 A+ Price 1.8 11.1 13.9 F   30 30 30 31 32 32 32             F Darvish 5.6 7.6 9.9 A       25 20 22 22 19 18           B Corbin 4.1 5.4 8.6 F         15 19 24 23 24 35         A Cole 5.6 7.6 6.4 A           36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 A Wheeler 6.8 7.6 3.45 A           22 23 26 25 24         A+ Strasburg 0 0 Inf F           24 24 24 24 24 24 24 27 27 F- *The summary is updated to reflect the addition of Strasburg to the chart. I decided against adding Bauer. Bauer doesn't have a long term contract, and part of the reason FA ace caliber pitchers are a low risk is a single lost season is easy to overcome. Among the 9 listed starters, only 3 have lost an entire season (Price x1.5, Darvish, Strasburg x2). Of the 38 seasons on the contracts from the 9 starters, 4.5 seasons have been lost. A risk of a starter losing a season is approximately 10% per contract season.
Right now, Corbin and Strasburg both look like a bad deals, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if they rebounded. If you look at those contracts, something really stands out to me. Only Strasburg has played poorly enough so the team who signed them wouldn’t have wanted in the rotation and 6 of the 8 are bonefide ace level pitchers on their average season. Even David Price with all his injuries and down performance is worth trotting out there. Also, 7 of 8 of those front line starters have been absolutely C or better signings. Here’s how I’d arbitrarily grade signings based on the dollars spent per WAR.
$16MM+ = F- $14-16MM = F $12-14MM = D $10-12MM = C $9-10MM = B $6-9MM = A 0-6MM = A+ To sum it up, the scary big contracts for front line starters almost always work out over the life of the contract, and even when they don’t work out exactly as intended, the pitchers are almost always worth running out there every 5 days as part of the rotation. However, the low end and middle of the rotation arms are almost never worth it based on nearly a decade of track record by the Twins and over a dozen such starting pitchers. Considering the Twins absolutely do not need any #4-5 starters, the front office also needs to stop wasting money with their annual dumpster dive, refocus and acquire top pitching talent. After all, it’d barely cost more on an annual basis to replace the typical free agent signings they’ve been wasting money on to sign two top of the rotation arms as they’re available.

Following the success of the recent 1991 Twins 30th Anniversary Celebration at Target Field, here's a preview of a future milestone, the 2021 Twins 30th Anniversary Celebration from the year 2051.   (EDITOR'S NOTE: As time travel can introduce many unintended consequences, especially for the gambling conglomerate which owns Twins Daily in 2051, we have attempted to remove any references to specific baseball events that haven't yet occurred.) Once again, Dick Bremer hosted the 2051 proceedings by himself, as none of his 156 different broadcast partners from the 2021 season were memorable enough to recall. What follows is a transcript of the event from Target Field, broadcast exclusively in 2051 within the Caesar's Palace Sports app (blackout restrictions still apply).

[2051 DICK BREMER HOVERS AT A PODIUM OVER TARGET FIELD, AGELESS LIKE HIS NAMESAKE DICK CLARK]
BREMER: Many call it the worst Twins season of all-time. Some consider it matched only by [YEAR OF FUTURE AWFUL TWINS SEASON REDACTED]. Blown saves; trade deadline sales; viruses in the clubhouse; no fans in the stands and few watching -- legally, anyway -- at home. Like a Bizarro Lake Wobegon, it was a team where all pitchers were somehow below average. Tonight we will relive that trauma from 30 years ago.
We have many of the players from that roster here tonight, even [PRONOUNCES CAREFULLY] Tzu-Wei Lin, and a majority of the 57 different pitchers used by the Twins in that fateful 2021 season.   At first base, his strikeout rate was legendary in his time, even if it seems low now by 2051 standards; the "Boquetón" now retired to Boca Raton, Miguel Sanó.
  At second base, fans may "blank" on his brief time with the Twins, but he'll always be designated for assignment in our hearts: Travis Blankenhorn.
  At shortstop, the only thing hotter than Andrelton Simmons's glove was his Twitter takes. Simmons could not attend tonight, as he is accepting an honorary doctorate from YouTube University. So instead I present a [AIR QUOTES] "mystery" shortstop that all true Twins fans should recognize. [NOBODY RECOGNIZES THE PLAYER, WHO IS J.T. RIDDLE.]
  At third base, he is known as the "Bringer of Rain" for washing away all sticky stuff from major league baseball forevermore; still somehow the most expensive free agent in Twins history even after 30 more years of inflation, Commissioner Josh Donaldson.
  In the outfield, it's -- a bunch of infielders! [TZU-WEI LIN LEADS A SILENT PARADE OF PLAYERS ACROSS THE OUTFIELD; NICK GORDON, HOWEVER, REMAINS ON THE BENCH.]
  Designated hitter Nelson Cruz, appearing by Zoom hologram from Las Vegas where he is playing tonight for the A's.
  On the mound, the starting pitcher who in 2021 made the third of his improbable [REDACTED NUMBER] separate stints with the Twins, Andrew Albers. And in the bullpen, the person who traveled the least distance to be here, Caleb Thielbar.
  Finally, at every position, including catcher, pitcher, mascot, and head groundskeeper, La Tortuga himself, Willians Astudillo!   [SEVERAL MINUTES OF THUNDEROUS APPLAUSE AS ASTUDILLO DRIVES THE LATE T.C. BEAR'S FOUR-WHEELER TO EACH POSITION FOR A CURTAIN CALL, LOSING AND RETRIEVING HIS HELMET EACH TIME.]   Throwing out tonight's ceremonial first pitch is second generation Twins waiver claim Ralph Garza Jr. Jr. [NOT A TYPO]. And catching the first pitch, the lab-created genetic combination of the 2021 Twins front office, and current 2051 Twins intern, T.D. Falvine. [FAN-ACTIVATED ANGRY FACE EMOJIS SCROLL ACROSS THE FIELD AS THE FIRST PITCH IS THROWN.]   And now, please enjoy tonight's intra-continental game between your Minnesota Twins and their legendary opponent from the 1991 World Series, the recently renamed Hotlanta Braves. Our 2051 sponsor, Amazon Prime Time Travel, received a commission for any thoughts you had while reading this.

I see Nick Gordon has been sent down and Refsnyder brought up. I understand the logic; Gordon has been hitting around .200 with no walks or power for the last month and Refsnyder was hot earlier before he got hurt. We're evaluating both for 2022. 
My question is what does everyone see for Gordon going forward? Given his play this year, do you think the Twins need to keep him on the 40 man roster or could He survive the Rule 5 draft? Do you see a long term future for him with the Twins? We could use the 40 man spot but I am concerned about losing him in the draft since he would be easy for a losing team to stash for a season. 

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

Before we look into our crystal balls post-deadline, a quick review of what's just transpired might be in order.  First, we lost our best hitter and best pitcher.  For this very reason, chances are this season is going to get even worse.  Three of our new starters will likely be Ober, Jax and Barnes, none of whom figures to be better than a #5 starter.  The bullpen has arguably gotten worse without Rogers and Robles.  And the offense will likely continue to be erratic -  some big run production outings against below average pitching, but more likely low run production against even average pitching.  And with a very difficult August schedule, the likelihood of the Twins climbing out of the cellar looks mighty slim.
But let's look at the bright side.  The Twins prospect depth greatly improved.  We've added at least 3 top 10 prospects, probably catapulting our depleted, injury-stricken minor league system into the top ten in MLB, at least on paper anyway.  And just as importantly, we kept several players who can be building blocks going forward.  You cannot underestimate the importance of Maeda and Pineda, solid #2 and #3 starters in leading a reenergized rotation in 2021.  Nor can you ignore the importance of having a Donaldson and hopefully healthy Buxton leading the offense next year.  Which brings me to my first point :  they need to resign both Pineda and Buxton if this team has any chance of jumping into contention in 2023.   This team will likely not be a playoff contender next year but for them to bounce back to at least a .500 record and set the stage for contention in 2023, these 4 players must be kept..
Continuing on the bright side, this FO did a great job in the trade department.  They received at least 3-4 players who should be playing in the big leagues as soon as next year, but most likely by 2023.  The rotation's future looks much brighter with guys like Joe Ryan and SWR, not to mention our top prospects, Winder and Balozavic, should yield one or two rotation mainstays by 2023.  Which brings me to point#2:  Sign a FA with ace potential this offseason.  My first choice is Syndergaard who should be more affordable due to injury but still young enough to lead a contending staff.  He should be an offseason priority.  This is a risk but one well worth taking if the team is committed to rebounding quickly.  The new additions will also mitigate against rushing some of our younger prospects and perhaps switching some to relievers.
Which brings me to the bullpen.  We added some middling prospects, one of whom might prove valuable in the pen.  We still have Rogers, Duffy and Thielbar, with a few minor leaguers on the verge.  Let;s bring up guys like Cano, Hamilton, and Moran and see how they do.  Coulombe has looked decent.  Point #3:  they must spend the $ for a top FA reliever.  Any suggestions?  I'm at a loss here.  And let's try to get Alcala straightened out at AAA now, as well as transitioning Duran to the pen.  This is still a dumpster fire but at least it can't get much worse than it is now.
So count me as positive for the retool.  It sure beats a long rebuild!!

The conversation on this site as of late has been centered around should we trade player X, should we keep player Y, etc.
We don’t have much else to talk about.
If we are talking about trading assets, especially ones that are controllable and add value to your club next year and beyond, it raises the question – are you re-tooling or are you re-building?
Now I know that a lot of people might say its too early to even think about what next years team might look like, it might be. But if your argument is “re-tool” then we need to look at what that might look like.
We all are aware that Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Taylor Rogers are set to become free agents following next season.
Contract extensions for both Buxton and Berrios seems incredibly unlikely at this point. Both players have their flaws but are absolutely pieces you can build around. Taylor Rogers is one of the best relievers in the game, but is set to become a free agent, is going on age 32, and the front office has never paid more than 6.5 million for a reliever aside from two occasions (Reed and Colome)
But throw all that out the window.
 What if they decide to give next year a go with Buxton, Berrios, and Rogers?
What does a retool look like?  
I am ignoring the return that the pending free agents might be able to get you at the upcoming deadline, mostly because It’s not a given that can contribute next year. It could be a few low A prospects for all we know.
I will also be using John Bonnes’s article on how much the Twins might have to potentially spend next year, that you can read here, as reference for my spending – 45 million dollars.
The lineup, bench, and pitching staff I have put together is just a projection and very well could be different then what the Twins or you think it might look like. Please don’t roast me too harshly in the comments.
 
Lineup
Byron Buxton
CF
Max Kepler
RF
Trevor Larnach
LF
Josh Donaldson
3rd
 
SS
Jorge Polanco
2nd
Alex Kirilloff
1st
Mitch Garver
C
 
DH
Andrelton Simmons SS
Nelson Cruz DH
Bench
Luis Arraez
UTI.
Ryan Jeffers
C
Miguel Sano
1st/DH
Nick Gordon
UTI
 
Rotation
José Berríos
SP
Kenta Maeda
SP
 
SP
 
SP
Bailey Ober
SP
Michael Pineda
JA Happ
 
Bullpen
Taylor Rogers
Closer
Jorge Alcala
Set up
 
Set up
Tyler Duffey
Set up
Caleb Thielbar
Mid
 
Mid
 
Mid
 
Long
Alex Colome
Hansel Robles
 
Here are the holes the Twins are going to need to fill entering 2022 season.
Shortstop Designated Hitter Starter x2 Bullpen x4 __________
I am spending most of my 45 million dollar budget I have available on the rotation, as I view that as the biggest need the Twins have if they hope to compete in 2022. So, forgive me for slightly skimming over DH and Shortstop.
Let’s start with how the Twins can round out the empty spots in the rotation and bullpen with what they presently have in the organization and who they could potentially add from outside the organization.
Internal Options
Name
AGE
LVL
ERA
GS
W/L
IP
K’s
BB’s
Jhoan Duran *
23
AAA
5.06
4
0-3
16.0
22
13
Josh Winder
24
AAA
1.94
11
4-0
60.1
73
12
Jordan Balazovic
22
AA
4.44
6
1-1
24.1
33
8
Matt Canterino *
23
A+
1.00
4
1-0
18.0
35
3
Blayne Enlow *
22
A+
1.84
3
1-1
14.1
23
6
These are the Twins top 5 pitching prospects
Duran is currently on the shelf with elbow soreness, something you never want to hear. The Twins shut him down for 6 weeks and we have 4 weeks remaining. To this point control has been a huge issue at AAA for him. Josh Winder has been fantastic. One of the lone bright spots for the Twins pitching prospects this season and I think you could expect him to contribute on some level in 2022. Balazovic has only made 6 starts this season working back from injury. Currently at AA, he has yet to make it through 6ip in any start this season. Canterino has not pitched since May but was having a great year at A+. I have not seen any reports on what a timetable looks like for his return. Enlow was off to a great start as well, but elbow soreness led to Tommy John so he’s out for the foreseeable future.
It is only July, so things can change. But the top pitching prospects the Twins have are all dealing with stunted development timelines due to injuries. Duran is not coming back till August and has the dreaded elbow soreness so who knows what that means long term. He has not pitched more than 16 innings at AAA. Balazovic is still at AA and has only thrown 24 innings. Canterino has not pitched since May and Enlow is done for 2022 and 2023.
Josh Winder is the only prospect you have of the 5 that has pitched well above the AA level in 2021.
That's 1/5 of your top 5 pitching prospects you can truly count on to make some sort of impact in 2022 for the Twins. I do want to say that I believe in this group a lot, I think they all will be assets the Twins can count on for years to come. But is that in 2022? Don’t bank on it.
 
Name
AGE
ERA
GS
W/L
IP
K’s
BB’s
Lewis Thrope
25
5.59
6 (23g)
0-2
14.0
46
24
Devin Smeltzer
25
4.26
7 (19g)
4-2
69.2
56
18
Griffin Jax
26
8.66
1 (5g)
1-1
17.2
14
8
Randy Dobnak
26
4.85
20 (32g)
9-11
118.2
75
30
"candidates"
This was worse than I thought. Not really prospects, more so “candidates” to fill out spots for the 2022 Twins pitching staff. Anyways, I just went with their career numbers because all 4 players have been hurt throughout the 2021 season. I don’t even want to write out the numbers they have posted thus far, it’s painful.
If you confidently think one of these guys will help you win games during the 2022 season, I’d love to hear why in the comments below. Anyways, moving on.
 
Here is a look at what the Twins could bring in from outside the organization for pitching help.
External Options
The old fellas (37+)
Max Scherzer Zach Greinke Justin Verlander Charlie Morton Highly, highly doubt any of these guys have interest in signing with the Twins. Aside from Scherzer, do you want the Twins to make a run at them? Pass, and they all say no thanks too.
Tier 1
Lance Lynn Marcus Stroman Kevin Gausman Carlos Rondon Tier 1 does not make much sense to me. None of them are better than Berrios and if you are not going to pay him the 5 / 115mil we all expect him to get, why would you pay Marcus Stroman or Kevin Gausman somewhere in the range of 5 / 90mil? I think the sox can and will retain both Rondon and Lynn as well.
Tier 2
Jon Gray Michael Pineda Robbie Ray Martin Perez Danny Duffy Zach Davies Not super inspiring. Jon Gray and Robbie Ray are probably the most appealing options. Pineda’s recent arm injury puts things up in the air for his future.
We can skip the Martin Perez option as I cannot imagine the Twins getting back into that.
Danny Duffy would be nice, but do you really want to commit something like 3 / 40mil to a guy going on 35?
Tier 3
Noah Syndergaard Chris Archer Corey Kluber None of them are currently healthy, nor have they been the past 2 years. Syndergaard is interesting but even he is a question mark going into next year as he’s on the IL right now after issues following TJ.
Trade Targets?
German Marquez John Means Zach Gallen The Rockies, Orioles, and Diamondbacks are all rebuilding. They are not moving assets for someone like Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco. So, what can you offer up?
Royce Lewis? Then your selling low on your best prospect. Balazovic or Duran? Welp, that would be, um, something when your desperate for pitching. Arraez? Jose Miranda? One of Jeffers / Garver? Not sure that moves the needle, nor are they prospects teams would covet…. After that, nothing is getting you a Marquez, Means, or Gallen.
Now how about one of Trevor Larnach or Alex Kirilloff for pitching? It is an interesting idea and could dramatically change the Twins long term question mark at the position. You would have to be really sold on Max Kepler bouncing back.
_____
Let’s fill out the rotation with 2 players from each tier 1 & 2 of starting pitchers.
Gausman/Stroman/Lynn/Rondon Gray/ /Ray/ /Duffy Ok that realistically will command something in the range of 28 million. Take your pick of who that may be.
I do want to point this out, you are not going to be able to sign anyone from Tier 1 to a 1-year deal. You will have to sign them to multiyear commitments with real money involved.
Even Tier 2, id imagine most players will take no less than 2-year deals.
You could sign 3 players from tier 2. Go a similar direction as they have in the past bargain shopping (Happ, Lynn, Shoemaker, etc.)
Though that has not really worked out, so I am switching things up in my scenario.
_____
As for the bullpen. It is anyone’s best guess. They are not signing Craig Kimbrel and after that its just a bunch of names to be quite honest. You can check out the list here.
______
For the sake of the “re-tool” argument
I am committing 3 million to signing 2 no name relievers like the front office has done every year.
We have now committed something in the ballpark of 31 million to revamp the pitching staff, with 2 new starters and 2 no name relievers (it’s anyone’s guess).
_______
They now have 14 million remaining to fill the holes at Shortstop and DH.
Designated Hitter
The Designated Hitter class, surprise, is also poor.
Nelson Cruz is going to probably be too expensive and may even retire. Id love him back though. But we have more pressing needs.
After that, we can choose between Jorge Soler or Khris Davis. But why sign either of those guys when you have Miguel Sano on the roster?
Brent Rooker? You could let em duke it out in Spring Training.
Lets scratch signing a DH.
_____
Shortstop
On to Shortstop. They could move Jorge Polanco from 2nd base back to short and slide Luis Arraez in at 2nd. But I am not sure they want that defensive plan up the middle again.
Nick Gordon, who was drafted as a shortstop, does not seem to be viewed as shortstop anymore. Other than Royce Lewis, who has question marks already staying at short long-term, has never played above AA, and coming off an ACL injury, the Twins lack internal options.
We do not have the money to sign one of the crown jewels of the class so you can forget about Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Brandon Crawford.
I do think Javier Baez is a notch below those guys and he probably would be open to a shorter-term deal. Maybe something like 1 / 14 mil? He has a .282 OBP to this point, though slugging .778. It will be interesting to see what the market is for him.
The 2nd Tier in the SS class consists of Freddy Galvis, Alcides Escobar, Andrelton Simmons and Jose Iglesias.
As for trade options, Dansby Swanson could be available if the Braves decide to go after a big name. Other than that, I do not see a ton being available or frankly anything that intriguing.
I am rolling with Javy Baez on the 1yr / 14 mil deal. Twins get lucky, sign Berrios’s brother in-law, and see how it plays out. It is a nice bridge while we wait for Royce Lewis.
______
We have run through the options, lets look at what we got to compete in 2022.
Lineup
Byron Buxton
CF
Max Kepler
RF
Trevor Larnach
LF
Josh Donaldson
3rd
Javier Baez
SS
Jorge Polanco
2nd
Alex Kirlloff
1st
Mitch Garver
C
Miguel Sano
DH
 
Bench
Luis Arraez
UTI.
Ryan Jeffers
C
Jose Miranda
3rd/DH
Nick Gordon
UTI
 
Rotation
Jose Berrios
SP
Kenta Maeda
SP
Gausman/Stroman/Lynn/Rondon
SP
Gray/Ray/Duffy
SP
Bailey Ober
SP
 
Bullpen
Taylor Rogers
Closer
Jorge Alcala
Set up
No Name #1
Set up
Tyler Duffey
Set up
Caleb Thielbar
Mid
No Name #2
Mid
Randy Dobnak
Mid
Devin Smeltzer
Long
 
Again, this is in no way what the Twins are going to do, merely an idea of what a “re-tool” might look like. So, before you rip me in the comments for signing the wrong guys or not doing what you think they should or should not do, this exercise gives you a glimpse into the options the Twins have both internally and externally to build a competitive team in 2022 for one last run with Buxton, Berrios, and Rogers all together.
So now you can ask yourself the questions that matter.
Does that team win the central? Does it win a wild card berth? Are you putting the organization in the best possible to position to compete with the White Sox the next 4-5 years? Do we have a pipeline of pitching prospects we are confident in? I think that this team can be competitive. 85-88 wins? thats barring everyone being healthy. This is all hinging on Polanco continuing to swing the bat well, Kepler being more consistent, Maeda returning somewhat to his old self, Bailey Ober continuing to pitch as well as he has, Thielbar, Duffey, and Alcala continue being trusted options, etc.
There's a lot of question marks. My concerns mainly start with depth of the minor league system, specifically pitching.
Where do they stand with Berrios and Buxton on extensions? If I'm either player, im a year away from free agency, why would I take an extension now? If you sign the players to help you compete in 2022, do you even have enough money left to try and pay them?
At the end of the day the front office’s job is to do what’s best for the organization. The last thing any GM wants to do is plays catch up because they were not proactive. If you have doubts about any of those questions you need to shift your focus to 2023 and beyond.
That might mean moving Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers at the deadline.
Which is a hard pill to swallow for some fans, but it is the smart thing and the right thing to do.