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Blog Entries posted by TwerkTwonkTwins

  1. TwerkTwonkTwins
    I know I'm not alone in thinking that the Twins are bad at baserunning this year. It's easy to find that they are terrible at stealing bases, as they rank 30th in both total stolen bases (14) and stolen base percentage (58%).
    After watching Nick Gordon turn errantly around first base only to get thrown out on this play, I decided to look up the numbers to see if there was a quantifiable baserunning metric beyond stolen base percentage that would prove my eyes correct.
    And boy, did the numbers confirm the eye test. According to FanGraphs, the Twins rank 28th in MLB with a -9.7 BSR (baserunning metric). Only the Washington Nationals (-10.6) and the Detroit Tigers (-12.5) have a lower team BSR. 
    The definition of BSR can be found here, but it essentially combines everything that does or doesn't happen on the base paths. These actions can include stolen bases, being caught stealing, grounding into double plays, getting thrown out, taking/not taking an extra base, and more. 
    A BSR of zero is league average, and every ten runs is equal to one additional win. The fact that the Twins have a -9.7 BSR as a team indicates that their baserunning has nearly taken off a win from their record. That's beyond awful, according to this chart. 

    Baseball Reference also has another stat called Runs From Baserunning (Rbaser). The Twins rank 29th with -7, matching what FanGraphs is reporting with BSR. Multiple sources have confirmed the Twins have some work to do when it comes to running the bases this year, and that it is impacting their run scoring.
    This raises the question: How long has baserunning been a problem, and will it hurt the Twins in the standings? 

    The answer is that the Twins' baserunning metrics have been completely random over the last few years.
    Paul Molitor stressed baserunning excellence during his time as a manager, but that didn't reflect well in the standings. The Twins were also awful at baserunning in 2019, but that didn't stop them from recording 103 wins. The 2022 Twins have been absolutely frustrating on the basepaths, but it's not strongly correlated with overall winning percentage. 
    I'm not saying you shouldn't pull your hair out when you see an out on the bases. Stolen bases are incredibly fun. But in the long grind of 162 games, there are many other factors that will contribute more heavily to the end result of a team having a successful season. Rocco and his coaching staff are going to keep rocking on instead of running on. 
     
  2. TwerkTwonkTwins
    MLB wants a pitch clock to speed up time of games, and has already implemented a pitch clock in Minor League Baseball. The current clock is set at 14 seconds for when the bases are empty, and allows up to 18 seconds when runners are on. These changes have shaved off 20 minutes from MiLB game times, and MLB has a new policy in the recent CBA that could allow them to implement a pitch clock at the major league level in 45 days, but 2023 seems more likely. 
    Today, MLB's Baseball Savant released a "Pitch Tempo Leaderboard", which measures the median time between pitches (release to release thrown to the same batter). Maybe MLB wants to help prepare the public by making this available? It's not the most insightful data in the world, but it's fun to conceptualize and match our perceptions with reality. For example, I knew Emilo Pagán was a slower pitcher, but there are some pitchers with a surprising pitch tempo that I didn't notice.
    Below is a quick look at how the current Minnesota Twins pitching staff currently fares in this department compared to the league, and then we'll dive into the slowest and fastest pitchers on the staff with bases empty and runners on base scenarios. 
    MLB Average Pitch Tempo vs. Twins Average Pitch Tempo
    MLB Average With Runners Empty: 18.2 seconds Twins Average With Runners Empty: 18.9 seconds  
    MLB Average With Runners On Base: 23.6 seconds Twins Average With Runners On Base: 24.3 seconds Overall, the Twins have a slower pitch tempo than other teams. It doesn't appear to matter if the bases are empty or if the bases have traffic. We can't determine if this is a philosophy of Derek Falvey and pitching coach Wes Johnson, or if it's just the mix of pitchers on the staff. Every pitcher likely developed habits long before they were in the Twins system, especially older players who had no pitch clock prior to their MLB careers. 
    Pitcher-Level Pitch Tempos - Bases Empty
    The table below is sorted by average pitch tempo when Bases are Empty.

    Fast Tempos with the Bases Empty:
    Jhoan Duran and Dylan Bundy lead the Twins pitching staff with a tempo of 15.7 seconds. Duran leads the Twins in percentage of pitches that are considered "Fast" (thrown under 15 second), at 37.1%.  This appears to be very unusual for a reliever, as Duran ranks 50th across all of MLB Pitch Tempos with the bases empty. Most of the pitchers above him are starting pitchers. 8 out of 14 qualified Twins pitchers are faster than the MLB Average pitch tempo with the bases empty (18.2 seconds).  Slow Tempos with the Bases Empty:
    Cody Stashak has the slowest pitch tempo on the team when the bases are empty, with 24.1 seconds between pitches. This ranks as the 13th slowest pitch tempo in MLB when the bases are empty.  Most of the Twins bullpen outside of Duran has taken Stashak's approach. Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilo Pagán, and Danny Coulombe haven't thrown a single pitch under 15 seconds this year, and all average over 20 seconds with empty bases.  Chris Archer has the slowest tempo of the starting pitchers with the bases empty, at 19.5 seconds between pitches. All other starters are below 17,7 seconds.  
    Pitcher-Level Pitch Tempos - Runners On Base
    The table below is sorted by average tempo when runners are on base. 

    Fast Tempos with Runners On Base:
    Dylan Bundy is the fastest pitcher on the staff overall with runners on bases,  with an average tempo of 21.6 seconds. This is 5.9 seconds above his tempo with the bases empty. While this is the fastest tempo with runners on base across the Twins pitching staff, Bundy's 21.6 seconds between pitches ranks 77th in MLB. This indicates that the team take time with runners on base as a staff.  Joe Ryan has the second fastest pitch tempo with runners on base, at 22.5 seconds. He is the only Twins pitcher to throw a single pitch under 15 seconds with traffic on the bases (only 1.1% in this scenario).  While Jhoan Duran is a speed demon with the bases empty, he slows down considerably when runners are on base at 23.9 seconds between pitches. This is a difference of 8.2 seconds to his pitch tempo from when the bases are empty.  Only 4 of the 14 qualified Twins pitchers are faster than the MLB Average pitch tempo with the bases empty (23.6 seconds).  Slow Tempos with Runners On Base:
    The slowest pitches with runners are actually starters: Josh Winder (26.4 seconds) and Chris Paddack (26.2). These tempos rank 46th and 60th in MLB, respectively.  Winder also has the highest percentage of pitches over 30 second with runners on base, at 22.2%. Chris Paddack has the largest difference in tempo between bases empty and runners on, with 9.1 seconds added. Cody Stashak is weird. He is the only Twins pitcher on the staff that is actually faster when runners are on base. His pitch tempo is 23.8 second with runners on, which 0.3 seconds faster than with the bases empty. This could be due to him pitching in low-leverage situations, but that's me speculating.  Caleb Thielbar, Danny Coulombe, and Emilo Pagán all have nearly the exact same pitch tempo with runners on base (25.4 - 25.5 seconds).  Who would be in violation of the current Minor League Pitch Clock? The current limit is 14 seconds with the bases empty, and 18 seconds with runners on base.
    All Twins pitchers have an average pitch tempo above 14 seconds with the bases empty and above 18 seconds with runners on base. They would all be in violation! However, only 8 MLB pitchers have a pitch tempo that would not be in violation with the bases empty, and only one (Wade Miley) wouldn't be in violation with runners on bases.  Fun Chart Time
    I highly suggest using the "compare" tool to see how pitchers vary in pitch tempo. You can see how consistent Dylan Bundy (the speed king) is, while Cody Stashak can be all over the place. 
    Starters:

     
    Relievers:

    If you got to the end of this post, congratulations. I hope you read this at a quick tempo, like Dylan Bundy. 
     
     
  3. TwerkTwonkTwins
    Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Mike Trout. What do these names all have in common? They have worse expected statistics than Kyle Garlick. But...so does the entire league, so they shouldn't feel too bad. 
    To level-set, Kyle Garlick has amassed a standard slashline of .250/.359/.625 (.984 OPS). That's amazing, and 90% above average in a year like 2022. But his underlying Statcast data is even more impressive, due to the type of contact he's been making. 
    I do want to warn that this post will be a bit of Fun With Small Sample Sizes™, but it's a lot of fun. For much of the expected statistics I'll be looking at, the minimum amount of balls in play (BIP) needed to qualify for the official Baseball Savant leaderboard is 33. Garlick has amassed 26 BIP through 39 plate appearances due to injuries, and being sheltered from right-handed pitching -- the latter of which is certainly contributing to his eye-popping stats. 
    Starting off with the most impressive clove of Garlick's loaded bulb of batting stats is his Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA). This stat blends a lot of Statcast data such as exit velocity, launch angel, expected batting average. It's then assigns value to each batted ball and walks like wOBA, but removes defense from the equation. 
    When filtering to 25 Balls In Play, Kyle Garlick ranks 1st in xwOBA with .492, which is outpacing his standard wOBA (.415). Being first in this stat places him in the 100th Percentile, and it's quite the impressive list below

    Kyle Garlick's xwOBA is outpacing multiple former MVPs, and two Twins players in the Top 20. How is he doing this?! 
    Garlick is outperforming his batting average of .250, by having an expected batting average (xBA) of .332. That's the 19th largest swing in batting average to expected batting average. He's been great AND unlucky, as that xBA ranks 6th among MLB players filtering to 25 balls in play. 
    His slugging is an even greater disparity between actual and expected results. A slugging percentage of .625 is great, but Garlick has the highest expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .804, for a nearly 18% difference in actual vs expected. 
    Garlick is causing a stink among left-handed pitchers, because he's patient and hits the ball with extreme authority. His walk rate is 15.4%, nearly twice as the MLB average in 2022 (8.4%), and the highest of his career.. Pitchers are likely scared to come in the zone to Garlick, because when he makes contact, the ball is hit among the hardest in the league. 
    Hard Hit Rate: 61.5% (4th) Hard Hit Swing %: 22.6% (6th) Average Exit Velocity: 94.7 MPH (7th) Barrels Per Plate Appearance: 10.3% (22nd) Barrels Per Batted Ball Event: 15.4% (27th).  These are all expected statistics of a upper-echelon slugger and MVP candidate. To pour some cold water on this, I'm overanalyzing a whooping four barrels that Garlick has hit across 26 times he's put the ball into play. However, that doesn't mean that Garlick hasn't been a potent weapon in Baldelli's lineup against left-handed pitching. Just like how the Twins are in first as we enter late May, we should all savor what we are seeing. 

    And Garlick should keep savoring those bananas. Don't change a thing. 
     
     
     
     
  4. TwerkTwonkTwins
    Gilberto Celestino has had an interesting path to the majors, and one that reduced his initial shine for most of the fanbase. Celestino was acquired for Ryan Pressly at the 2018 trade deadline, alongside Jorge Alcala, in a very unpopular deal at the time. MLB Pipeline ranked Celestino the 15th best prospect in 2019, and 14th best in 2020. The consensus was that Celestino was a standout defensive center fielder, but questions about his bat and power limited his overall projection.
    When Celestino was called up out of emergency in 2021, his initial performance not only confirmed the offensive questions in the prospect rankings but the calling card of his defense was also poor with -2 Outs Above Average coming from 56 attempts. Celestino was clearly overmatched at the major league level, as he played a handful of games at AA before making the jump to the Twins. Celestino accumulated a 22 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR in only 62 plate appearances in 2021. 
    Needless to say, when Celestino was added to the 2022 Opening Day roster the reaction amid the fanbase was tepid. It's probable that the Twins didn't even envision Celestino making the roster, as they optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul on 3/31. Many believed that his status on the roster was to be temporary, with rumors swirling about the Twins adding Justin Upton to be a source of right-handed power in the outfield. 
    Derek Falvey even went as far to say that Celestino could be off the major league roster in a week's time. 
    Flashing forward to early May, Celestino has outperformed expectations, and probably any output that could have come from Justin Upton. As of 5/9, Celestino has provided some of the best offensive and defensive numbers on the team. 
      AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wRC+ wOBA fWAR bWAR Gilberto Celestino .324 .390 .405 .796 144 143 .361 0.6 0.4 FanGraphs has Celestino as the 6th most valuable offensive player on the Twins in fWAR and his wRC+ is the third highest on team behind Byron Buxton and the legendary Kyle Garlick. On the defensive side of his game, Celestino has 2 Outs Above Average (84th percentile). It's a small sample size, but how has Celestino been so valuable this early on? 
    The answer to that question: Celestino has had amazing plate discipline. 
    Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % 2021 235 51.5 64.5 82.1 26.3 63.3 43.8 30.6 46 23.1 6 85.7 2022 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76
    The highlighted cells show that areas where Celestino has been outperforming both his 2021 self, and the MLB average. He's simply become one of the most contact-oriented players in the game, and one of the most discerning about balls and strikes. He's swinging and making contact at pitches that are meant to be swung at in the zone, and spitting at the outside pitches that usually result in outs. 
    Among all players with at least 25 plate appearances, Celestino ranks 3rd in Whiff % (8.2%) , and 16th in Chase Rate (15.9%). To put that in further perspective, here's a look at Celestino compared to two other players with great plate discipline reputations. 
      Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % Gilberto Celestino 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 Luis Arraez 351 43.6 66 92.1 25.8 88.2 46.4 19.5 43.3 8.6 5.7 60 Juan Soto 549 43.4 56.7 80.7 19.3 66.7 41 20.3 35.5 23.1 5.8 78.1 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76 Am I saying that Gilberto Celestino is the next Juan Soto or Luis Arráez? No, but I am saying that Celestino is a supremely disciplined hitter with extreme contact skill. That doesn't always take a large sample to determine. Soto has a chase rate of 19.3%, which ranks in the 90th percentile. Arráez has a miniscule whiff rate of 8.6%, which is in the 100th percentile of MLB players. Celestino tops both players in these areas at this point in the season. 
    The only knock on Celestino this year can be his lack of power. Both his Barrel Rate (3.2%) and his average exit velocity (86.9 MPH) rank below the MLB average. However, the Twins have plenty of slugging across their lineup to make up for that. Luis Arráez used to be the lone bat-to-ball man in the lineup with names like Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez, Alex Kiriloff, and Gio Urshela. It helps to have offensive diversity, and Gilberto Celestino may be filling a needed niche that nobody expected. 

    If Celestino's current blend of strong defense and astounding swing decisions holds up, he probably ranks as a starting-caliber outfielder on most major league teams. The lack of power will always hold him back from being a true star, but his skillset fits today's game more so than the previous half-decade. The surprise addition to Opening Day roster may have been the perfect fit for the 2022 brand of baseball. 
     
     
  5. TwerkTwonkTwins

    Falvine's Waiver Claim Game

    By TwerkTwonkTwins,


    MNTwinpinions
    Critique of a front office is easy to make in the midst of a deeply disappointing season. While many fans are languishing over the incoming July trade deadline, I've heard a lot of complaints about the lack of waiver claims made this season by the Minnesota Twins.
    Why are the Twins continuing to trot out the likes of Colomé, Happ, and (formerly) Shoemaker, when the front office can claim replacement-level players from other teams for essentially nothing? 
    The outright waiver transaction process is a deeply complicated one. Whenever a team wants to remove a player that is already on the 40-man roster, that player must first be offered to each of the other 29 major league teams. If another team claims that player, the player goes on that new team's 40-man roster. The full definition from MLB can be found here. 
    Because I'm insane, and this season is awful, I decided to compile a list of every player that the Falvey/Levine front office has claimed from other organizations, in addition to players they've lost via waiver claims.
    How have they fared in the waiver claim game?  Should they pick up the pace, now that they have nothing to lose? Do these claims actually amount to anything?
    These questions are important... but so is the trip down memory lane, once you read some of these names. 
    Players Acquired Via Waiver Claim
     
    Date of Claim Player Claimed Position Team Claimed From fWAR in Minnesota 2/6/2017 Ehire Adrianza UTL IF San Francisco Giants 2.1 5/10/2017 Adam Wilk LHP New York Mets -0.2 6/7/2017 Chris Heston RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 0.0 3/24/2018 Kenny Vargas 1B Cincinatti Reds - 4/26/2018 David Hale RHP New York Yankees -0.2 5/28/2018 Taylor Motter UTL Seattle Mariners -0.3 8/3/2018 Johnny Field RF Cleveland Indians 0.1 8/3/2018 Oliver Drake RHP Cleveland Indians 0.2 10/31/2018 Michael Reed CF Atlanta Braves - 11/26/2018 C.J. Cron 1B Tampa Bay Rays 0.3 10/29/2019 Matt Wisler RHP Seattle Mariners 0.6 10/30/2020 Ian Gibault RHP Texas Rangers - 10/30/2020 Brandon Waddell  LHP Pittsburgh Pirates -0.3 2/5/2021 Ian Hamilton RHP Philadelphia Phillies - 2/11/2021 Kyle Garlick RF Atlanta Braves 0.3 6/22/2021 Beau Burrows RHP Detroit Tigers -           Total fWAR 2.6 The Twins have claimed a total of 16 players from opposing organizations since Falvey/Levine took over after the 2016 World Series. Of these 16 claims, their most consequential claim was their very first one. Ehire Adrianza was never a star, but a very productive role player for a number of contending Twins teams. 

    After that, the list isn't so impressive. Matt Wisler was great at slinging sliders in the bullpen during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but the Twins cut him last offseason in a puzzling move. C.J. Cron and the currently-injured Kyle Garlick have been the largest "successes" outside of Adrianza and Wisler, each account for 0.3 fWAR as right-handed hitters that were acquired to mash left-handed pitching. 
    Most of these players did not remain on the 40-man roster for a long time. Quite a few were lost to waivers shortly after the Twins acquired them, which include Kenny Vargas, Johnny Field, Oliver Drake, and Brandon Waddell. Such is the life on the waiver wire for many MLB players. 
    Players Lost Via Waiver Claim
     
    Date of Claim Player Position Team Claimed By fWAR after Minnesota 11/18/2016 Adam Brett Walker LF Milwaukee Brewers - 8/26/2017 Tim Melville RHP San Diego Padres -0.2 9/14/2017 Engelb Vielma SS San Francisco Giants -0.1 11/3/2017 Randy Rosario LHP Chicago Cubs -0.3 11/3/2017 Daniel Palka OF Chicago White Sox -0.7 11/6/2017 Nik Turley LHP Pittsburgh Pirates 0.2 1/22/2018 Buddy Boshers LHP Houston Astros 0.1 2/23/2018 JT Chargois RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 0.5 3/22/2018 Kenny Vargas 1B Cincinatti Reds - 7/9/2018 Ryan LaMarre CF Chicago White Sox 0.4 10/10/2018 Juan Graterol C Cincinatti Reds -0.2 11/1/2018 Johnny Field RF Chicago Cubs - 11/1/2018 Oliver Drake RHP Tampa Bay Rays 0.4 1/11/2019 Aaron Slegers RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 0.4 5/26/2019 Austin Adams RHP Detroit Tigers -0.1 7/20/2019 Adalberto Mejia LHP Los Angeles Angels 0.0 8/14/2019 Ryan Eades RHP Baltimore Orioles -0.2 9/16/2019 Marcos Diplan RHP Detroit Tigers - 11/4/2019 Stephen Gonsalves LHP New York Mets - 9/5/2020 Ildemaro Vargas 2B Chicago Cubs -0.5 10/1/2020 Sean Poppen RHP Pittsburgh Pirates -0.1 5/8/2021 Brandon Waddell LHP Baltimore Orioles 0 5/14/2021 Travis Blankenhorn 2B Los Angeles Dodgers -0.1 6/5/2021 Dakota Chalmers RHP Chicago Cubs - 6/18/2021 Shaun Anderson RHP Texas Rangers -           Total fWAR -0.5 You'll immediately notice this list of players lost via waivers during the Falvyey/Levine regime is a lot longer than the list of players they've acquired via waivers. All together, they have lost 25 players, which is 9 more players than they've claimed from other teams. 
    The good news for the organization, is that this cumulative list has not come back to bite them. 10 of the 25 claimed players provided negative value for their new teams, after departing Minnesota. Daniel Palka's 2017 season really sunk this group, as he posted a -1.4 fWAR in only 93 plate appearances for the White Sox (after he provided 0.7 fWAR and a 109 wRC+ in 2018). 
    The largest losses from this group have definitely been in the relief category, highlighted by JT Chargois, Oliver Drake, and Aaron Slegers. However, most of these players have had inconsistent careers, injuries, or both, in their time after playing for Minnesota. 
    Even when factoring in some bullpen pieces this organization might regret losing, the total fWAR from these players after departing the Twins is -0.5 fWAR. The current front office has been right far more than wrong, when deciding how to churn the 40-man roster. 
    Yearly Trends And Overall Takeaway
    Year Players Claimed From Other Teams Players Claimed By Other Teams 2016/2017 3 6 2018 7 7 2019 1 6 2020 2 2 2021 3 4 Total Players 16 25       Total fWAR 2.6 -0.5 fWAR Difference   3.1 Overall, the Twins have gained 3.1 fWAR from their decisions to gain and lose players from the waiver wire. That's a pretty decent result for a type of front office transaction that is often overlooked. It averages out to about 0.69 fWAR per season, factoring in the 4.5 seasons of the Falvey/Levine regime. 
    Most of that waiver activity came in 2017 and 2018, when the front office was still adjusting to their inherited players from the previous front office. Successful teams don't always gamble roster spots on players exposed to outright waivers, which is evident in the 2019 team. 
    One major caveat to point out across the yearly trend is that teams were probably hesitant to claim players from other organizations during the COVID-19 pandemic, so 2020 and early 2021 should be viewed through that lens.
    However, that didn't stop the Twins from claiming 3 bullpen arms (Ian Gibault, Brandon Waddell, and Ian Hamilton), and Kyle Garlick this offseason. The jury is still out on these claims, but Waddell did not go well. 
    The most interesting thing about 2021 is that the Twins lost 4 players during their early season free-fall (Brandon Waddell, Travis Blankenhorn, Dakota Chalmers, and Shaun Anderson), before claiming Beau Burrows a few weeks ago from the Detroit Tigers.
    Is former first-round draft pick Beau Burrows the tip of the iceberg? Now that 2021 is officially kaput, will the front office be more aggressive? 
    I sure hope so. Moves will be made in the next few weeks, and this 40-man roster will be significantly different as we approach the trade deadline. The 40-man roster will likely be smaller, and the Twins will be in front of the line when contenders have to cut players to account for their deadline additions. 
    Waiver claims are rarely sexy transactions, but sometimes you stumble into a Ehire Adrianza or a Matt Wisler. The Twins have proven to be more successful than not when it comes to their waiver claim game. It's time to play, because there's simply nothing to lose. 
  6. TwerkTwonkTwins
    The day is January 26th, 2021. The Minnesota Twins had been rumored to be interested in various middle infield free agent options, but Marcus Semien was their top target, according to Darren Wolfson. The fit made some amount of sense, as the right-handed Semien would provide some pop against lefties and defensive flexibility across the infield. 
    Semien did not sign with the Twins on January 26th. He accepted a one-year contract worth $18M to join the upstart Toronto Blue Jays, as their primary second baseman. The Twins quickly pivoted, signing Andrelton Simmons to a one-year $10.5M contract a few hours later as their fallback option. 
    Fast forward, and today is May 27th, 2021. It's been over four months since the Twins made that pivot from Semiens to Simmons, over a difference of $7.5M. A lot has changed in that span, as the Twins quickly went from division favorites, to 8.5 games back from first place.
    With 30% of the season in the books, I think it's fair to look back and evaluate if the Twins made the right decision by not outbidding Toronto for Semien's services and shifting to Simmons. 
    Before we dive in, it is important to call out that comparing Simmons and Semien across their career has been a bit like apples and oranges .The two players are both indeed starting middle infielders, but Simmons has been one of the most elite defensive shortstops in a generation, while Semien was a Top-3 MVP finalist due to his offensive performance. Semien has also been playing primarily at second base this year, but has started roughly 9% of his games at shortstop. 
    With that out of the way, let's see how Semien and Simmons have fared so far in 2021 across overall, offensive, and defensive categories: 
     
      Overall Offensive Defensive   Games Played PA fWAR bWAR AVG OBP SLG HR OPS+ wRC+ Hard Hit % Barrel % WPA DRS Outs Above Average Runs Prevented Fielding % Marcus Semien 47 212 2.2 2.4 .286 .349 .536 12 143 143 44.9% 8.1% 0.6 3 3 2 .988 Andrelton Simmons 37 138 0.2 0.7 .238 .326 .320 2 92 87 27.3% 1.0% -0.6 2 8 6 .966  
    In one way, the overall result is what you expect. Semien is a better offensive player, and Simmons takes the edge defensively, especially when accounting for time spent at shortstop.
    But Semien isn't just outpacing Simmons offensively -- he's among the league leaders in offensive production. Semien not only has a higher slugging percentage and weight runs created plus (wRC+) than his 2019 season where he was a MVP finalist, but he currently leads all qualified MLB second baseman in those two categories. Toronto took a chance Semien would look more like his 2019 self, than his 2020 version. They have been right so far. The move to second base has also worked to this point, where multiple defensive metrics point toward positive contributions. All together, his 2.2 fWAR ranks 7th among all MLB hitters, 
    On the other hand, Simmons has always been known as a player who gives the team value through his glove. His offensive skillset usually ends up slightly below average across his career, and he's been just that in 2021 (both his OPS+ and wRC+ are below 100, which is the league average). Simmons won't strike out that often, but he won't provide any power at all. Both his Hard Hit % and Barrel % are below the 5th percentile of all MLB players. Weak contact can be dangerous.
    The Twins have definitely received value from Simmons and his magic glove. Simmons ranks second in MLB with 8 Outs Above Average, according to Statcast, which has saved the Twins 6 runs over the course of the season. FanGraphs is not as glowing as Statcast, as Simmons ranks 11th among MLB shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved.
    The eye test will tell you Simmons has been amazing, but we can all point to a few plays this year where a mental lapse has resulted in a key dropped ball, or a double play that wasn't turned. That lack of clutch ability has also shown up in his -0.6 Win Probability Added (WPA), where as Semien has the reverse positive WPA of 0.6. 
    Overall, I do think the Twins have received a positive contribution from Andrelton Simmons. He's performed in the baseline of his career, with his elite defense outweighing his offensive downfalls. But when you compare the two contracts, it's hard to justify that signing Simmons to one-year and $10.5M has been more valuable than Marcus Semien at one-year and $18M. FanGraphs claims Semien has already provided $17.7M worth of value for Toronto, while Simmons has provided $1.5M worth of value for the Twins. 
    There were probably other factors that led Semien to Toronto, rather than Minnesota. It's not 100% up to the team in free agency, it is a dance that involves many other factors for the player aside from the dollar amount. But if the decision for a middle infield acquisition came down to a $7.5M difference between the front office's top target and their fallback option, it's clear Falvey and Levine should have ponied up a bit more. The Twins are missing out on a early dark horse for the 2021 MVP candidate. 
     
     
     
     
     
  7. TwerkTwonkTwins
    The three-team mega blockbuster involving the Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers is finally complete.
     
    At this point, most Twins fans are aware of what happened - a deal was in place on February 4th, sending Graterol to Boston as part of the return for offloading Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers. However, that soon changed after Boston came to the conclusion that Graterol was not destined to be a starting pitcher. This was a conclusion that the Twins publicly announced well in advance of the trade. Chaos, medical speculation, and finger pointing ensued, and the entire trade between the three teams was put on ice.
     
    This was perhaps the most dramatic trade saga of my Minnesota Twins fandom, maybe ranking behind the Johan Santana rumors that dominated the entire 2008 offseason.
     
    I will spare you all the back-and-forth rumors between Boston getting cold feet and the revised agreement between the three teams, as this is a massive movement of players. Instead, the changes in the Twins aspect is highlighted below:
     
    2/4 Twins Agreement V1
    Twins trade Brusdar Graterol to Boston.
    Twins acquire Kenta Maeda from Los Angeles.

    2/9 Twins Agreement V2
    Twins trade Brusdar Graterol, 2020 Comp B Draft Pick, and Luke Raley to Los Angeles
    Twins acquire Kenta Maeda, $10M in cash assets, and Jair Camargo © from Los Angeles.

    The second version is much more complex, but paints a better picture of the Twins 2020 mindset. While the delay was agonizing, irritating, and heart-burn inducing, I think the Twins used time to their advantage and improved their haul from the first version.
     
    Let’s review what changed from the first trade to the second, and how the Twins sacrificed future unknowns for increased flexibility to improve the 2020 club at a later date.
    The 67th Pick In the 2020 MLB Draft
     
    Here’s a look at the Twins’ last 25 second round picks - ranging from pick number 37 to 92.
     


    There’s a lot of variability here, with 71% of the bWAR coming from the combination of Scott Baker and Jesse Crain. The Twins have failed to receive value from the second round in the last decade, but the second round picks from the Falvine regime are legitimate prospects within the system. The jury is out on anyone drafted from 2016 onward.
     
    Make no mistake - the Twins are taking an unprecedented risk for this organization by trading a draft pick this high, especially after losing the #99 pick for signing Josh Donaldson. However, there’s a very realistic chance this pick doesn’t reach the MLB level. If the player were to reach the majors, it would likely be in year outside of the Twins current competitive window. There’s plenty of second round draft talent currently in the system to supplement the current core.
     
    Another way to look at the value of this pick is by equating it to a monetary value. Fangraphs placed the value of the 67th pick in 2019 at $4.1M. That factors in a signing bonus subtracted from projected future value, based on historic WAR from players picked in that slot. That’s an interesting way to look at this part of the trade, considering the dollar amount that Los Angeles is providing.
     
    $10M in Cash Assets
     
    Cash. Don’t worry, this isn’t meant to line the pockets of the Pohlads. This is spending money for the 2020 Trade Deadline in late July/early August. This allows them to acquire an asset at the deadline using more financial capital, and less prospect capital.
     
    Judging from their pre-Donaldson free agent signings, it’s clear that Falvey and Levine crave financial flexibility. Here are several ways to look at this incoming cash, beyond use in a trade scenario:
    Covering the majority of Kenta Maeda’s base salary ($12.5M through 2023)
    Covering Maeda’s full 2020 contract, if he hits the majority of his incentives.
    Pays for the #67 Comp B draft pick, with roughly $5.9M in excess value.

    This is a huge benefit over the previous agreement, as it protects the Twins if Maeda flames out, or allows more budget room to acquire a pricier trade target in July. The $10M from Los Angeles will go to valid use in many scenarios.
    Luke Raley for Jair Camargo
    Luke Raley boomerangs back to the organization that dealt him to Minnesota for Brian Dozier in 2018. In exchange, the Twins are receiving a low-level catching prospect in Jair Camargo.
     
    Camargo is a young catcher at 20 years old, and played at Class A last year in the Great Lakes league. His offensive line was middling with a .642 OPS, but he is rumored to have a strong exit velocity from his bat (90 MPH+) with a high hard hit percentage. The Twins seem to like that offensive profile, and the fact it's coming from a catcher is extra appealing. It never hurts to add catching depth at any level.
     
    The Twins are giving up Raley, who was a fine prospect, but he suffered through an injury for the majority of 2019. He projects as a corner outfield platoon/bench piece, and that role is valuable to MLB clubs. However, the Twins outfield depth is immense, with a young starting core on the MLB team, and multiple top 100 ranked outfield prospects behind him in Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff.
     
    Even with blockages in front of him, and top prospects behind him - Raley was competing alongside multiple outfielders at a similar level of development. Jake Cave, LaMonte Wade Jr, and Brent Rooker are all fellow outfielders with similar ages and projections to Raley. All of these similar corner outfielders were occupying 40-man roster spots.
     
    The major benefit in trading away Raley to Los Angeles, is that it immediately opens up a 40-man roster spot for the 2020 team. Camargo is years away from being added, and is essentially a lottery ticket at a premium position. For now, the open 40-man roster vacancy creates a large amount of flexibility. The open spot can be used for Jhoulys Chacín, an injury replacement, or a future acquisition.
     
    Brusdar Graterol Is Gone - But To A Different Opponent
     
    Fair trades are supposed to hurt, right? This aspect did not change, as pitchers who throw 100 MPH+ do not grow on trees.
     
    It still hurts to lose Graterol, but the same analysis that applied a few days ago remains the same. The Twins are betting that Graterol will remain in the bullpen, and are filling an area of need in the starting rotation, from an area of strength on the 2020 team. Unlike Boston, Los Angeles is fine with Graterol’s likely reliever projection. The Twins are hoping Graterol doesn’t turn into Aroldis Chapman.
     
    So why is the version of the trade more beneficial to the Twins, in relation to Brusdar? Simple, the Twins won’t have to face him nearly as much over the next few years if he’s pitching in the National League, compared to two guaranteed series per year against Boston. Of course, that could change with a few late October match-ups against Los Angeles, but we’d all be very pleased if that’s the case. It’ll be much easier to root for him in Dodger Blue for the next few years.
     
    The End Result
     
    The one constant between the two versions of this trade is that Kenta Maeda is still coming to the Twins, as the #3 starter to open the season. The Twins had to get a bit more creative after Boston shied away from Graterol, but Los Angeles was a flexible trade partner.
     
    While the first version of this trade was already risky with the Twins shipping away Graterol’s sky-high potential, the second version adds even more risk to the equation. The loss of the Comp B draft pick and Luke Raley could come back to sting in their own rights. However, I’m glad the Twins doubled down, as the increased roster and financial flexibility for 2020 are the only known factors in this entire deal.
  8. TwerkTwonkTwins
    Jhoulys Chacín has signed to a minor league deal with the Minnesota Twins, according to Robert Murray. This move raises the floor of the starting rotation with no risk, and Chacín has a history of being a dependable mid-rotation starter. However, that history was clouded by a terrible 2019, which is why the Twins were able to sign Chacín to a minor league deal.
     
    Chacín’s major league career to this point can be summarized in four acts:
     
    ACT I: Colorado High (2009 - 2013)
    608 IP, 37 W, 41 L, 3.61 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 126 ERA+, 9.6 fWAR
     
    Chacín broke into the league with Colorado in 2009 at the age of 21 for a cup of coffee. He pitched extremely well during the majority of his Rockies tenure, considering the environment that the Denver altitude brings. Chacín posted a 2+ fWAR in each of his first two full major league seasons in 2010 and 2011. Chacín was injured and ineffective in 2013 (5.14 FIP with a 0.4 fWAR), but he would go on to post a career high 4.1 fWAR in 2013.
     
    ACT II: Injuries, releases,and minor league deals (2014 - 2016)
    234 IP, 9 W, 16 L, 4.81 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 86 ERA+, 2.2 fWAR
     
    The shoulder-related injuries at the end of Chacín’s Rockies tenure led to his release in March of 2015, and Chacín spent the next two years signing minor league deals. After cameos of five games each for Arizona (2015) and Atlanta (2016), Chacín was traded by Atlanta to the Los Angeles Angels where he had decent success as a swing-man (29 games, 17 starts). That season was the first sign of Chacín’s renaissance, as he would post a 1.6 fWAR with the lowest FIP of his career (4.01).
     
    ACT III: Career Renaissance (2017 - 2018)
    373 IP, 28 W, 18 L, 3.69 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 112 ERA+, 5.7 fWAR
     
    Fresh off the heels from his impressive stay with the Los Angeles, the San Diego Padres gave Chacín his first major league deal for the 2017 season. Chacín rewarded San Diego with a 2.3 fWAR season in 180 IPs. He also posted the highest strikeout rate (20%) since his 2010 season, driven by the increasing use of his slider. Chacín threw his slider for roughly 20% of his pitches in his career to that point, but in 2017 it jumped to 35.3%.
     
    Chacín used his 2017 success to sign the largest contract of his career with Milwaukee prior to the 2018 season, for two years and $15.5M. Chacín had an even better season in 2018, posting a 2.4 fWAR and a 4.03 FIP. He also made the first postseason appearances of his career, going an effective 2-1 in three starts, with a 1.46 ERA against the Rockies and Dodgers.
     
    ACT IV: Rock Bottom? (2019)
    103.1 IP, 3 W, 12 L, 6.01 ERA, 5.88 FIP, 67 ERA+, -0.1 fWAR
     
    This is the area I want to dissect with the most detail, because Chacín’s 2019 is the reason why that the Twins are signing him to a minor league deal on February 1st.
     
    Heading into 2019, Milwaukee was certain that Chacín was going to be a cog in the starting rotation after his strong regular season and postseason results. That was sadly not the case, as everything that could go wrong for Chacín, did. Milwaukee ended up releasing Chacín in late August after 19 starts. The Boston Red Sox picked him up on August 31st, but Chacín would post even worse numbers in five starts to end the season.
     
    Chacín’s troubles in 2019 can be explained most simply by changes in the contact, and a few unlucky trends. Chacín’s hard hit rate of 42.3% ranked among the 7th percentile for major league pitchers (MLB average was 34.5%). The hard contact was coming in a new area for Chacín - in the air. Chacín is known as a groundball pitcher, with a career groundball rate of 46.6%. In 2019, his groundball rate was the lowest of his career at 37.5%, and his linedrive and flyball rates increased accordingly.
     
    More danger came with more flyballs, as Chacín averaged 2.18 HR/9 last season, and hitters had a HR/FB rate of 21%. While increased flyballs will lead to increased home runs, home run rate can fluctuate wildly. Chacín was tied for the 8th highest HR/FB rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings last season, something that should regress a bit in future seasons.
     
    Balls contained within the fences also found holes against Chacín. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), was also inflated last year at .307 (45h highest in MLB), compared to his career BABIP of .281. The abnormally high HR/FB and BABIP numbers from Chacín suggest that he was unlucky when the ball was in play or in the air.
     
    It's also important to point out that Chacín went on the injured list in July with an oblique strain after two rough outings, so it’s possible some of his woes were health-related. However, in any way you slice it - changing contact trends, bad luck, or injury - Chacín had a terrible 2019 season.
     
    Reasons For Optimism?
     
    The Twins signed Chacín as they are probably enamored by his slider (much like fellow offseason acquisition, Matt Wisler). Chacín’s slider use continued to rise in 2019 to 49.5%, which is extremely high for a starting pitcher.
    The performance of his slider did decrease a bit, as the league knew what to expect from scouting reports. However, Chacín still easily outperforms the MLB average across several Statcast metrics.
     


    The use of his slider can probably be assisted by his sinker/four-seam fastball combo becoming more effective. These pitches combined for over 44% of his pitches thrown in 2019, with dreadful results - a .652 SLG on his sinker and a 1.000 SLG (!) on his fastball.
     


     
     


     
    Both the sinker and the fastball have been below average for Chacín dating back to 2015, but they became borderline unfathomably terrible last season. The only signs of optimism is that he had a higher whiff rate on both of these pitches, which helped increase his strikeout rate to a career high 21.5% in 2019 (one of the only bright spot metrics for Chacín in 2019).
     
    Luckily, Wes Johnson has shown a tendency to add a few miles per hour to fastballs, or help pitchers develop a cutter or splitter (Chacín has thrown both minimally in the past), that can offset the frequently thrown slider. If Chacín can refine his repertoire of non-breaking ball/offspeed pitches, his flyball and home run rate should decrease closer to his career norms.
     
    Overall, this is a very low-risk bet for the Twins that allows starting pitching insurance for the early stages of the 2020 season. The Twins can now afford to have one rookie pitcher in the starting rotation, rather than two, until the return of Michael Pineda in mid-May.
     
    Despite all the concerns about 2019, Steamer projects Chacín to have very similar seasons to the rookie trio of Smeltzer, Thorpe and Dobnak:

    Chacín: 137 IP, 7.41 K/9, 3.56 BB/9, 1.54 HR/9, 5.05 ERA, 5.13 FIP, 1.2 fWAR
    Smeltzer: 75 IP, 7.21 K/0, 2.74 BB/9, 1.77 HR/9, 5.03 ERA, 5.20 FIP, 0.4 fWAR
    Thorpe: 42 IP, 9.16 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, 1.55 HR/9, 4.40 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 0.5 fWAR
    Dobnak: 90 IP, 5.95 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 1.47 HR/9, 5.03 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 0.7 fWAR

    With the performance so closely matched, I’d rather Chacín take up one of the two open rotation spots based on his experience and string of 2+ fWAR seasons just a few years ago. If Wes Johnson and the Twins can help Chacín develop a counter to his slider, Chacín should rebound a bit to become a serviceable back-end starter. With all the starting pitching reinforcements coming later in the season, the Twins just need Chacín to be a serviceable bridge - but he has the potential to be more.
  9. TwerkTwonkTwins
    Byron Buxton has proven that he will provide multiple wins above replacement, if he stays healthy and hits at an acceptably average level. The bad news is that Buxton failed to stay healthy for the latter half of 2019, limiting what could have been. The great news is that he appeared to be making major swing and philosophy adjustments that may lead to above-average offensive production going forward.
     
    The first step was reducing his strikeout rate (K%), that allowed him to have a chance to put more balls in play. While Buxton may never have a strikeout rate below 20%, his 2019 K% of 23.1% decreased by a difference of 22% year-over-year. He also doubled his walk rate (BB%) from his disaster 2018 season, to significantly improve his BB/K ratio to 0.28.
     


    If Buxton can continue reducing his strikeout rate (it was over 30% in his first two seasons), and keep his walk rate steady, he will have many more chances to receive more pitches and drive the ball.
    Another major problem in the beginning of Buxton's career was watching too many early pitches become established in the strike zone, and he would proceed to flail at the third strike when he was in protect-mode. Pitchers threw nearly the same amount of pitches in the zone from 2018 to 2019, but Buxton continued his 4-year trend of swinging at more of these pitches (Z-Swing%).
     


    Buxton's contact of pitches in the zone (Z-Contact%) has remained constant throughout his career at roughly 82%, but that's not a bad thing. If contact is constant, but his trend of an increasing ZSwing% continues, Buxton will continue to increase his total contact events on hittable pitches. More aggression on pitches in the zone also reduces pitcher's counts, and ultimately strikeouts. He's come a long way from watching nearly 40% of pitches in the zone go on by in 2015.
     
    Increasing total contact on hittable pitches is swell, but the contact result is what matters in the end. Buxton's balls in play had encouraging results in 2019, establishing a career low in groundball rate (GB%) and a career high in flyball rate (FB%).
     


    Our new savior, Josh Donaldson previously said, "...they don't pay you for groundballs. They pay you for doubles, they pay you for homers." Well said, Josh.
     
    Buxton clearly took note of this philosophy, but how did he increase his flyball rate?
     
    Launch angle. Buxton's average launch angle of 19.5 degrees ranked 17th among all MLB players with a minimum of 250 plate appearances, and this also led the team that set the single season home run record.
     


    In addition to lifting the ball more often, he was also making stronger contact than ever before. Buxton set career highs in barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage in 2019. He was also above the MLB averages in each of these metrics, becoming a below-the-radar Statcast darling.
     


     
    It was an absolute shame Buxton's season ended prematurely, but his trajectory is promising if he can stay on the field. Buxton's changes - reducing his strikeout rate, increasing aggressiveness within the zone, higher launch angle, and harder contact - resulted in a 111 wRC+ for 2019. The path to becoming an above average offensive player has been a long and winding road for Buxton, but he finally arrived after trending in the correct direction for years.
  10. TwerkTwonkTwins
    It is beyond obvious that Jorge Polanco is essential to this Minnesota Twins team. Polanco's offense at the top of the lineup provides all-star level production, despite being on the most questionable defensive shortshops in the league. You could make a convincing case that he was the MVP of the team in 2019. With that out of the way, let's play a twisted game of "What If?".
     
    What if Polanco goes down with an injury in 2020? It's not inconceivable, as he had offseason surgery for an ankle impingement, but the Twins anticipate him being ready for Spring Training. Even with that reassurance from the team, you'd rather have the starting shortstop come into Spring Training with zero questions about an ankle.
     
    If Polanco were to miss major time with an injury (ankle or otherwise), I believe that he would be the most difficult position player to replace on this team. There are limited options behind him that are clear defensive upgrades, which is concerning given that Polanco ranked last in baseball for Infield Outs Above Average (OAA). Beyond defense, there's only a few players in the league that could match his offensive output at the position.
     
    So what would would the Twins do if Polanco were to go on an extended stay on the Injured List? Below are the internal options to replace him, and they aren't inspiring.
     
    Ehire Adrianza
     
    Adrianza is the best fit on the 26-man (that number is still taking a while to get used to) to step in for an injured Polanco. However, Father Time suggests that the 30-year-old Adrianza is not as efficient at the position as he used to be.
     
    Adrianza played 152 innings at shortstop in 2019, down from 534 innings in 2018 due to Polanco playing a full year. Statcast has Adrianza at -2 OAA at shortstop, but he had a 5 OAA in 2018. FanGraphs considered him to below average at the position as well, with a -2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -14.1 UZR/150 in 2019.
     
    The Twins did not substitute Adrianza for Polanco at shortstop that often in 2019, clearly valuing him more as a utility player at other positions. This is because while Polanco major defensive deficiencies, Adrianza is not that much of a defensive upgrade as a shorstop.
     
    Adrianza did have above average offensive production in 2019, with a 102 Weight Runs Created Plus (wRC+), but Adrianza has previously never posted a wRC+ over 100 during his time at the major league level (career 84 wRC+). Even if Adrianza matches his 2019 offensive production, it would not come close to Polanco's projected 109 wRC+.
     
    Marwin Gonzalez
     
    Gonzalez has appeared at shortstop more than any other position during his MLB career (292 games), but it's clear the Twins view him more as a utility option at the corners and outfield positions going forward.
     
    Gonzalez started one game at shortstop in 2019, and a whooping two games at second base. The Twins likely took a major note from his last few years playing shortstop in Houston:
     
    2017: -2 OAA, -3 DRS, -8.5 UZR/150
    2018: -6 OAA, - 5 DRS, -30.6 UZR/150
     
    Gonzalez would be a fine offensive shortshop, but his defensive ability to field the position no longer makes him an option to fill in for Polanco. He will be a necessary asset to mix-in at first base, where Miguel Sano will be learning a new full-time position, and across the outfield against left-handed pitchers. But he would not be first in-line to replace Polanco if a major injury were to occur, as his days as a shortstop appear to be over.
     
    Luis Arraez
     
    As I detailed in my Defensive Evaluation post on Arraez, there isn't a large sample on his time at shortstop. However, if there are major concerns with his ability to field second base ( -6 OAA, -8 DRS, -22.6 UZR/150), those worries would be amplified at a much more demanding position.
    The vast majority of Arraez's value also comes from his bat, but the water-level of offensive production rises from second base to shortstop.
     
    MLB SS Average in 2019: .264/.323/.439, .321 wOBA, 98 wRC+
    MLB 2B Average in 2019: .259/.322/.423, .316 wOBA, 94 wRC+
    Luis Arraez in 2019: .334/.399/.439, .360 wOBA, 125 wRC+
     
     
    Arraez had better offensive metrics than the average at both positions, but moving him to shortstop does reduce a bit of his value as the expectation for production rises. When factoring in the negative defensive value and probable regression, Arraez would likely inch closer to average overall value at shortstop than his primary home at second base.
     
    Nick Gordon
     
    Nick Gordon is the last infielder on the 40-man roster that can handle the defensive requirements for shortstop, but he is likely a candidate to be removed from the 40-man when Josh Donaldson is formally announced.
     
    In 6 years in the minors, Gordon has failed to show signs of offensive promise outside of a few promising first halves. His collective offensive line is .276/.329/.459 is rather pedestrian for a former first round draft pick, and boosted by an improved showing in 2019 where the ball at the AAA-level was juiced.
     
    When healthy, the Twins played Gordon at shortstop slightly more at shortstop than second base in 2019, with a 40/30 game split between the two positions. The same trend also existed in 2018, with a 69/30 game split. The problem is Gordon has shown durability concerns, likely due to his slight build. This results in extreme production drop-offs in the second half when he isn't missing significant time with an injury.
     
    If Gordon remains on the roster by Opening Day, a Polanco injury might be one of his first and last shots to make an impression on the major league level. All four major league infield positions are locked in for multiple years of control, and more impressive prospects are at lower levels in the system.
     
    While a Polanco injury might be a best-case scenario for Gordon, the odds are stacked against him to provide average-level production as a temporary starting shortstop - let alone coming close to Polanco's offensive level. The impending roster crunch makes it even less likely that an opportunity will arise.
     
    Minor League Signings
     
    The Twins recently signed a few shortstops to minor league contracts, after Ronald Torreyes departed as a minor-league free agent.
     
    Wilfredo Tovar and Jack Reinhemier were signed in December, but both players have limited cameos at the major league level and should be seen as depth "break-glass-in-case-of-emergency" options.
     
    The 28-year-old Tovar has appeared in 40 games since 2013, but the majority (31) came in 2019 with the Los Angels Angels. He has produced a 28 wRC+ and a .217 wOBA in 110 plate appearances, with five extra base hits (all doubles). FanGraphs has rated his 257 career innings at shortstop favorably, with +2 DRS and a 16.2 UZR/150, so his benefit comes from his glove rather than his bat (career .676 OPS in the minors).
     
    Reinhemier is slightly younger at 27, with major league experience with Arizona in 2017 and the Mets in 2018. He collected only 40 plate appearances across these two seasons , with a 23 wRC+ and .196 wOBA. Reinheimer is more of utility player than pure shortstop, as 28 of his career 79.2 MLB innings have been played at the position.
     
    One of these players might be called up as a bench option in the event of a Polanco injury. If they are starting regularly as shortstop, something has gone horribly, horribly wrong.
     
    Why is Polanco the most difficult position player to replace?
     
    The internal options above paint a bleak picture in the scenario of a major Polanco injury. While all other starting position players are all projected to provide multiple wins above replacement, finding a replacement will be easier for all them due to the current layout of the roster.
     
    The Twins have multiple major league caliber outfielders on the bench in the likes of Jake Cave and Marwin Gonzalez. Players on the 40-man that are major league ready, or close to it, include LaMonte Wade Jr, Brent Rooker, and Luke Raley.
     
    The corner infield spots are similarly covered, with Marwin Gonzalez providing positive defensive value (unlike shortstop), and Adrianza right behind him. Even Willians Astudillo and Travis Blankenhorn could provide replacement level service if necessary. Many of these same players could easily step in for Luis Arraez at second base.
     
    The catcher position is also in decent shape, as the Twins will be protective of Mitch Garver with plenty of time given to Alex Avila. Behind Avila, Astudillo is a serviceable (but more entertaining) backup with top catching prospect Ryan Jeffers not too far behind.
    All of these positions have stronger backup options than shortstop, where the best replacement appears to be Ehire Adrianza. While Adrianza is a fine utility player, he has never been given a starting role. At 30 years of age, his defense will continue to drop-off, and he is no sure bet to provide above average offensive output as he did in 2019. Without Adrianza's offense making up for his defensive play, as is the case with Polanco, he might become a major liability as a starting shortstop.
     
    There's no near-term replacement for Polanco in the upper levels of the minor leagues, and the major league bench pieces aren't the best fit at his position. As I explained in my earlier defensive evaluation post, Polanco's historical metrics at the position suggest the time to find a long-term replacement is approaching in the next few years. It might be best to have the replacement in the wings, ready to step in in case this horrible game of "What If?" becomes reality.
  11. TwerkTwonkTwins
    Luis Arraez was a human adrenaline shot for the 2019 Minnesota Twins, providing 2.1 fWAR in 92 games. That value was driven nearly entirely from his .334/.399/.439 slash line, which amounted to a 125 wRC+ and comparisons to Tony Gwynn. Arraez is clearly mature beyond his years with his ability to handle the bat, but his defense is among the team's worst.
    Earlier versions of this Defense Evaluation series summarized the two position players that had the least defensive value in 2019 - Eddie Rosario in the outfield, and Jorge Polanco as an infielder. Luis Arraez was both in 2020, logging 130 innings in LF, and 555 innings across three infield positions (2B, SS, and 3B). Arraez has to be evaluated differently than Rosario and Polanco, as his versatility created four smaller sample sizes. Even with that caveat, there are still troubling signs to be taken from his 2019 defensive performance that could lead to greater negative impact with his new role as the 2020 starting second baseman.
     
    Luis Arraez in 390 innings at 2B (-4.8 Def, -8 DRS, -22.6 UZR/150, -6 OAA)
     
    I'll begin with evaluating Arraez's primary position of second base. FanGraphs is no fan of Arraez at this position, with a brutal -8 DRS and -22.6 UZR/150. Among all second basemen that had at least 350 innings, Arraez had the second worst UZR/150, trailing only Isan Diaz of Miami. His DRS was tied for the third-lowest, along with Dee Gordon and Rougned Odor. One deeper component of his defensive rating was his -3.1 RngR (range runs), where he also ranked for third lowest among second basemen with at least 350 innings played.
     
    Statcast is in line with FanGraph's assessment of Arraez at second base. In the new infield outs above average (OAA) metric that debuted last week, Arraez was tied for the 7th lowest OAA among infielders with -6 in limited innings. Other second basemen with -6 OAA were Jason Kipnis and old friend Brian Dozier.
     
    As I pointed out in the Jorge Polanco evaluation, the most concerning part about the new Statcast data is how the Twins infield is playing to each other's weaknesses rather than strengths. FanGraphs and Statcast both point out that Arraez has an issue with range at second base, and the chart below shows where Arraez struggles the most.
     


     
    Nearly all of the negative outs above average Arraez collected in 2019 were to his left, in the direction of Jorge Polanco and his -16 OAA. Polanco also has a negative -3 OAA mark when he fields a ball towards Arraez. According to my Minnesota Math (first and last Blyleven reference, I promise), adding two negatives creates a larger negative. Balls heading up the middle may spell disaster for the 2020 Twins infield.
     
    Statcast does deem Arraez do be above average when fielding balls behind him, and I can recall a few times last season when he scampered on pop-ups in shallow center field that impressed me. However, it's still a very negative light to have -6 OAA in 390 innings played. His weakness of range coincides with Polanco's lateral inabilities, making the up-the-middle infield defense a huge question mark for next season.
     
    Luis Arraez across other positions
    - 161 innings in LF (-0.5 Def, 0 DRS, 3.6 UZR/150, -3 OAA)
    - 130 innings at 3B (0.8 Def, 1 DRS, 7.8 UZR/150, -1 OAA)
    - 35 innings at SS (-0.3 Def, -1 DRS, -30.8 UZR/150, 0 0AA)
     
    I'll summarize brief findings about the other positions Arraez appeared at last season, as there isn't a large amount of innings to declare most things definitive.
     
    Arraez was forced into left field when Rosario spent some time on the IL, and learned on the fly. There were definitely some moments when he looked look a guy that was faking it until he was making it. FanGraphs wasn't extremely critical of Arraez the outfielder, as he had a positive UZR/150 in left field. Statcast rated him -3 OAA as a left fielder, with -2 OAA coming on balls hit back, which lines up with some plays I can recall Arraez retreating towards the wall. I'm fairly confident that if he played more innings in left field, more metrics would reflect Arraez as a below average outfielder.
     
    Arraez as a shortstop should be merely glossed over. He had a whopping 35 innings that resulted in a very poor UZR even with the small sample size. If there are concerns about Arraez as a second baseman, it doesn't make a large amount of sense to make him a fit at shortstop, beyond a potential injury replacement.
     
    Third base is probably the most intriguing position for Arraez. He doesn't have the strongest arm in the world, but FanGraphs rated his 130 innings as slightly positive with a cumulative 0.8 Defense Runs Above Average (Def), and a 7.8 UZR/150. Statcast had Arraez at -1 OAA at third, but that was significantly better than his OAA in left field and second base.
     
    So where should Arraez play?
     
    Going forward, Arraez will provide plenty of future value with his ability to make contact and get on base. His versatility came into play when injuries struck the 2019 team, but it isn't safe to bank on Arraez as a plus defender at any position he plays. It's always a benefit to have options, even if he isn't gold glove caliber anywhere across the diamond.
     
    Unfortunately, it appears the Twins are reducing his versatility in 2020 by placing him as the full time second baseman. Arraez will be at the position where he had the worst grading from both FanGraphs and Statcast, and where his ability to range toward Polanco is greatly limited. However, with less than one year of experience under his belt, it makes sense to try Arraez out at the position he played throughout the minor leagues.
     
    The benefits of keeping Arraez at second base are increased stability for the player, and the chance that he still improves at his young age. Looking at the roster, there are larger holes to plug than second base. However, in my post about Polanco, I proposed an infield game of musical chairs based on reducing the negative impact of Polanco's -16 OAA performance at shortstop.
     
    3B - mix of Gonzalez/Arraez (with the other taking a place in multi-positional musical chairs)
    SS - new defensively skilled acquisition to be named later
    2B - Polanco
    1B - Sano
     
    I'll continue to plug this alignment if the Twins fail to sign Josh Donaldson. From the perspective of Arraez, this infield positioning would bring two benefits. Having shared duty with Gonzalez at third base would maintain his valuable versatility, while ensuring the bulk of his innings appear at the position where he was arguably graded most favorably.
     
    Arraez is still young and still has to gain a large amount of innings at various positions before we can be 100% confident about his future defensive ability. It's highly unlikely that Arraez isn't starting at second base on opening day. His bat will provide enough value at the keystone position, but the Twins shouldn't rule out the prospect of keeping Arraez as a versatile multi-positional everyday player.
  12. TwerkTwonkTwins
    As I mentioned in Part 1 of this Defense Evaluation series, the Minnesota Twins were in the bottom third of teams when it came to aggregate fielding ability. The first post in the series focused on the team's weakest position of LF, manned by Eddie Rosario. I determined that while Rosario had a terrible year defensively, it can be alleviated with a healthy year of Buxton and Kepler, along with mixing him in at RF on occasion.
     
    Now that Statcast has released it's Outs Above Average (OAA) metric for infielders, we can evaluate a new subject with a stronger level of panic. The Minnesota Twins have one of the weakest infields in the game when it comes to defense, led by Jorge Polanco.
     
    Unlike Rosario, Polanco does not have defensive darlings around him that mask his weaknesses The unfortunate truth is that his shortcoming actually match up with Sano and Arraez, painting a troubling picture of what the Twins infield defense could look like in 2020. Let's jump into how Polanco is graded, how this impacts the infield defense picture, and potential steps to improve it in 2020 and beyond.
     
     
    2019 SS - Jorge Polanco (-3.9 Def, 1 DRS, - 15.7 UZR/150, -16 OAA)
     
    Jorge Polanco is a great player, valued at 4.0 fWAR. However at age 26, his defensive ability at shortstop has graded out as poor nearly every year of his career. You can often find Polanco when sorting by the bottom of defensive leaderboards.
     
    Polanco had the lowest UZR/150 among qualified shortstops in 2019, according to FanGraphs. His UZR/150 has remained negative in every year since he's been a starter, but the trend is concerning over the past three years:
     
    2017: -5.7 UZR/150
    2018: -11.3 UZR/150
    2019: -15.7 UZR/150
    This morning, Polanco had the dubious honor of reaching the bottom of another defensive leaderboard. When you sort Statcast's new Infield Outs Above Average metric, Jorge Polanco is the first face you see after filtering for the lowest value, at -16. He's tied with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the lowest in the MLB, and followed by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Didi Gregorious (both at -13).
     
    Statcast shows that Polanco struggles with balls hit laterally, but his weakest area is balls that are hit in front of him, where he has a -9 OAA. That was his largest area of drop-off in 2019, compared to his 2017 and shortened 2018.
     


     
    I'm not sure how Polanco can rapidly improve handling balls hit in front of him, apart from playing in on the dirt. Maybe he struggles with charging weakly hit balls. Perhaps the Twins positioned him further back so he could reach more balls in play to his left and right.
     
    And yet, those balls hit to his left and right were also a concern. The concern grows when you consider his teammates at 3B and 2B. Sano has an OAA of -5, with -1 attributed to balls hit in Polanco's direction. Arraez has a worse OAA (-6) with less time spent in the infield, and his OAA is weighted heavily by balls hit to his left (towards Polanco). When you factor in the limitations of Polanco's lateral movement to both sides of the infield, the below average defense of Sano and Arraez rapidly compound into a mess.
     
    The Twins 2020 IF defense is not loved by Statcast, with a cumulative OAA of -20, even when factoring in Marwin's +7 OAA at 3B last season. That's generous, because Gonzalez is the starting 1B as of early January.
     
    It's clear to see why the Twins were/are interested in Josh Donaldson. Donaldson posted an OAA of 8 with the Braves at 3B in 2019, with +3 OAA on balls hit in Polanco's direction. On Statcast paper, that would help neutralize Polanco's -4 OAA on balls hit toward third base. Sano would be shifted to 1B, where he's no clear bet to play Gold Glove-caliber defense, but does have a cumulative 1 OAA at the position dating back to 2016 in 223 innings.
     
    Looking beyond Donaldson, and even 2020, the case for Polanco to be shifted away from SS is compelling. Polanco has been defined as one of the league's worst defensive shortstops for multiple seasons in multiple metrics. The fact he's currently recovering from offseason ankle surgery doesn't exactly help matters.
     
    I would argue that the decision to move Polanco from SS to 2B - and sooner rather than later - could help matters. His new position would allow him more time to reach balls hit in, and would help with his limited range. The shift would require an offseason addition(s), as there's no clear internal SS replacement for 2020.
     
    If the Twins aren't able to sign Donaldson, I would target defensively skilled shortstops. Miguel Rojas, Nick Ahmed, and more come to mind - but that's another blog post for another day. That could result in the new defensive alignment of:
     
    3B - mix of Gonzalez/Arraez (with the other taking a place in multi-positional musical chairs)
    SS - new defensively skilled acquisition to be named later
    2B - Polanco
    1B - Sano
     
    That new alignment may look like nonsense to some of you, but running out the current infield depth chart is recipe for disaster. Moving Polanco away from his natural position of SS is a matter of when, not if. He's under team control through 2025, and I can almost guarantee he won't be manning SS in the latter years. Why not minimize his defensive liability in 2020, when all recent defensive statistics suggest the time may be now?
  13. TwerkTwonkTwins
    The 2019 Minnesota Twins were an exceptional team. However, they were exceptional despite their defense, not because of it. Starting pitching is receiving the bulk of the worry this offseason, but should the state of the team's defense get the same treatment?
     
    The Twins were 21st among MLB teams in Defensive Runs Above Average (Def) in 2019, with a total of -9.1. That's the lowest among all playoff teams (the Dodgers were the closest, ranking 19th with -5.0 Def). FanGraphs considers the -9.1 Def to be in between Below Average and Poor, sadly placing closely to a Poor ranking.
     


     
    Other metrics weren't as kind, either. The Twins placed 20th with a -1.1 UZR/150, and 19th with a -7 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). You get the picture that the Twins were in the lower third oft teams when it comes to aggregate defensive ability.
     
    In this series, I'll evaluate a few of the positions where the Twins could stand to improve defensively. I'll begin with the largest culprit of negative defensive value, Eddie Rosario.
     
    LF - Eddie Rosario (-11.1 Def, -6 DRS, -7.5 UZR/150, -17 OOA)
     
    Rosario was clearly troubled in LF last year, according to most defensive metrics and the basic eye test. How much of this was due to his mid-season ankle injury? That's hard to say. It almost certainty didn't help matters, and neither did age.
     
    Rosario has lost 1.4 feet per second since 2015, according to Statcast Spring Speed. Most of that drop-off occurred in between 2018 and 2019.
     
     


     
    Sprint speed clearly effects defense, but how so? Statcast has another metric of "Outfielder Jump". Rosario ranked in the 13th percentile of Outfielder Jump, and the reasons are probably due in part to being... slower.
     
    Components of Outfielder jump including reaction, burst and route. Rosario showed significant decreases in reaction and burst from 2018 to 2019, mirroring the trend in his sprint speed.
     
     


     
    Add that together, and Statcast harshly rates Rosario in Outs Above Average (OAA). He had a positive OAA of 4 in 2016, but ranked 225th in MLB with a -17 OAA last season. FanGraphs and Statcast are lined up in evaluating Rosario as a lower-tier defensive outfielder. FanGraphs ranked Rosario as the 3rd worst LF in Def last season, ahead of Domingo Santana and Shin-Soo Choo.
     
    FanGraphs does seems to value one area of Rosario's defense that matches up with the eye test. Dude has a cannon. Rosario is tied with Kyle Schwarber with a 5 rARM (Outfield Arms Runs Saved). Arm strength typically isn't effected by ankle injuries, and doesn't age as poorly as sprint speed.
     
    Aside from the arm, are there any reasons to be optimistic about Rosario's defense? Rosario's impact to the Twins outfield defense can be lessened with a healthy Buxton and Kepler, both of whom rank among the best defenders at their respective positions. However, there's a huge emphasis on a healthy Buxton and Kepler. Without outstanding partners in the OF, Rosario's defense becomes more a liability.
     
    When neither outfielder was healthy in September, Baldelli began to start Rosario in RF. Rosario made 10 September appearances in RF, and accumulated 89 innings at the position throughout 2019. FanGraphs was kinder to Rosario's play in RF, although it was a much smaller sample size than his time in LF. Below are how his stats compared between the two corner positions:
     
    LF: 1048 Inn, -11.1 Def, -6 DRS, -7.5 UZR/150
    RF: 89 Inn, 0.2 Def, -1 DRS, 13.5 UZR/150
     
    Perhaps the sample of Rosario in RF was too small and the defensive metrics would have regressed with time. Maybe, just maybe, Rocco Baldelli was onto something. I suppose we'll find out if mixing Rosario into RF was experimentation, or the start of a new defensive alignment even when every starting outfielder is healthy.
  14. TwerkTwonkTwins
    Max Kepler was arguably the Minnesota Twins 2019 MVP last year (according to this particular website). He made huge offensive gains, provided incredible RF defense, and led the team with a 4.4 fWAR. Kepler's ability to step in for an injured Buxton in the second half saved their playoff hopes. Could Kepler's multi-positional flexibility come into play again in 2020? Surely it will, and I'd argue it could extend from the outfield to the infield.
     
    First base is a long-lost friend for Kepler. It is the weakest position in the Twins depth chart as it currently stands today. Let's walk through the pros and cons of plugging in Kepler at first base.
     
    Pros
     
    Keep Kepler Healthy
     
    Kepler was battling ailments all year last year, despite providing a huge lift when filling in for his injured comrade, Buxton. He had off-and-on knee issues in the beginning of the year and ended up missing the vast majority of September with a general shoulder injury (Rhomboid Muscle Strain). This injury affected his ability to swing a bat, and I’m sure it also impacted his ability to throw and field. We all saw the effects in the ALDS, as Kepler was hitless against the Yankees.
     
    Mixing in Kepler as a 1B option would allow him to rest his knee and reduce throwing situations. Playing 1B isn’t necessarily equal to a day of Rocco’s “rest and recovery”, but it must be a breather from knee and shoulder issues that an outfielder will encounter throughout the season. Allowing Kepler to play a less demanding position will increase his impact on the team throughout the year. Imagine his 4.4 fWAR total if he had played throughout September.
     
    There are effective OF additions that could boost the lineup.
     
    I know the current focus is on a certain southern 34-year-old third baseman. Or maybe it’s the #3 - #5 spots in the opening day rotation. I think there are ways to add value to this Twins team through a few remaining free agent outfielders. Having Kepler play more 1B could create an opportunity to mix in another potent bat.
     
    Marcell Ozuna is the top remaining OF addition on the market. He would definitely help the lineup – a 110 wRC+ and .337 wOBA are nothing to sneeze at. Ozuna has lost an edge defensively from his Marlins days, recording -5 Outs Above Average (OAA) in 2019. Maybe an argument could be made with switching him from LF to RF.
     
    Another intriguing name is Yasiel Puig. Puig had a down year in 2019, with a1.2 fWAR and a wRC+ of 101 (career average of 124). He’s not as defensively challenged as Ozuna, but his offensive numbers were quite pedestrian in 2019 after a decent 2018. I’d argue that he can be acquired on a shrewd one-year bounce back contract, as his market has shriveled. Maybe I’m more interested in seeing the arms of both Rosario and Puig in the same outfield. And the tongue GIFs.
     
    I’ll admit that I’m not too thrilled about either of those names above, but these are just two top-of-brain examples of how the front office can become more creative in adding value if Kepler’s playing time is reallocated to 1B. The trade market could offer more intriguing options.
     
    Marwin Remains A “Multi-Positional Everyday Player”
     
    Marwin Gonzalez is valuable because he can fill in across the diamond. He’s currently slated to receive the lion’s share of 1B starts as the roster appears in January. A career OPS+ of 101 and .418 SLG don’t necessarily scream everyday 1B. He also had a -2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a -5.3 UZR/150 at 1B in 2019.
    Rocco received some heat from the press last spring training when he deemed Gonzalez a “Multi-Positional Everyday Player”. It would be wise to allow him to plug holes as needed again in 2019, rather than limiting him at 1B.
     
    The cool kid in LA is doing it.
     
    Let's look at another LH OF, one who just happened to win the 2019 NL MVP. Since 2017, Cody Bellinger's MLB games by positions break down like this:
     
    Outfield: 263
    - RF: 125
    - CF: 107
    - LF: 40
    First Base: 239
     
    Bellinger is a superior player, but Kepler and Bellinger have a similar power/speed skill set that make the 1B/OF blend work. They are among an exclusive club of MLB players that do. Both the Los Angeles and Minnesota organizations place a premium on versatility, and these two players are major reasons for that.
     
    The Los Angeles Dodgers have remained a powerhouse in the NL West for the better part of the decade due to their depth and flexibility. The Falvine regime has attempted the same by signing swiss-army-knife-man Marwin Gonzalez last year and increasing the positional flexibility of Luis Arraez, Ehire Adrianza, and Willians Astudillo. Injuries are inevitable, but versatility takes some of the sting out of a roster when they occur.
     
    Imitating how the Los Angeles Dodgers utilize the reigning NL MVP isn’t necessarily a bad thing, is it?
     
    Cons
     
    Kepler has minimal MLB experience at 1B
     
    Kepler has 1B experience. MLB experience? Some, but not so much. Emphasis on the not so much. Kepler has played 1B as a Minnesota Twin 3 times in his career. 0 of those appearances have been starts, for a total of 4.1 innings.
     
    I’m hoping that his multiple years playing 1B in the minors would ingrain the fundamentals of the position in his brain. We’ve heard about his genetic athleticism for years. However, it’s hard to ignore that he hasn’t played 1B since a 0.1 inning cameo in 2018.
     
    Kepler was among the best defenders in RF
     
    RF is clearly Kepler’s best defensive home. Kepler was third in UZR/150 in RF, and his 7 Outs Above Average (OAA) were tied for 10th among MLB leaders. Including him in the 1B mix would force the team to hand more innings to an inferior OF defender.
     
    This is probably my largest concern, because the Twins have an outstanding OF defense with a healthy Buxton and Kepler. Rosario is a defensive liability, but that liability is limited if Buxton can be shaded Rosario's way, as Kepler can track many balls down in RF.
     
    Verdict?
     
    I think there’s plenty of offseason left, and Donaldson is Plan A as of now. However, we’ve seen various Plan As fall through the cracks over the past few months. I think the thought of Kepler at 1B has to be entertained if an “impact” infielder can’t be acquired.
     
    I would still slate Kepler in as the opening day RF, but I believe that giving him a sizeable share of 1B would allow him to receive more rest and durability, create and maintain a more versatile roster, and allow the front office to get creative.
  15. TwerkTwonkTwins
    The Minnesota Twins bullpen was the dominant topic yesterday for...various reasons. It looks like it will remain a dominant topic as we head toward the July trade deadline. This blog series will be all about the Twins bullpen, but won't be concerned with internal or external additions. I wanted to take a look at how the coaching staff is tweaking the pitch selection of the current Twins relievers, and how that compares to the usage across their careers. I won’t pretend to know the reasons why pitch selection is changing, but it’s interesting to see the trends with a third-ish of the season under the belt.
     
    Disclaimer: I am by no means a pitching analyst, and I have just started to dive into the world of Baseball Savant. I highly recommend you try it out, too. You'll probably find some things I am missing.
     
    Taylor Rogers
     
    No need to introduce this guy. Taylor Rogers has become a relief ace after years as a marginal starting pitching prospect, followed by some time as a lefty specialist. The pitch percentage by season chart shows a major clue to how his 2018 breakout began, and that is the usage of his slider.
     


     
    Slider – “The Rog”
    "The Rog" (the new nickname I have just bestowed for the slider) is the only pitch that Rogers has thrown at an increased rate in 2019. It jumped from 13.1% of his pitches thrown last year to 50.3% in 2019.It's a large key to his success against right-handed hitters, as he's able to paint both sides of the plate with superior break.
     


     
    The results have not been quite as dominant as it was in 2018, but "The Rog" still holds opposing batters to a .244 BA and a .333 SLG (last year was .122 BA with a .195 SLG). For some context, he's thrown the slider 315 times since debuting in 2018, and given up a total of 4 extra base hits.
    I’m confident the slider will continue to be filthy, as the spin has increased and exit velocity has decreased to 85.3 MPH from 87 MPH last season.
     
    Curveball
     
    The other obvious change in Rogers' repertoire is the decrease of his curveball. The fact that his curve has become a rarity is far more surprising to me than the increased use of his slider. Rogers threw a curve for 33.4% of his pitches in 2018, but only 1.8% so far in 2019. 1.8% translates to 7 whole pitches in 2019.
     


    I'm not quite sure why Rogers isn't throwing his curve, because it was wildly effective last year. Rogers threw curveballs 316 times in 2018, allowing just 1 extra base hit with a .121 BA and .195 SLG. The spin on his curve was in the 89th percentile in 2018, and the average exit velocity was a paltry 82.7 MPH.
     
    The spin has remained above 2700 in 7 tries this season. If he threw it more, it would warrant a nickname (a la “The Rog”). Jeremy Heffner and Wes Johnson must have their reasons. Maybe Statcast is classifying some sliders as curves. Maybe po-tay-to is po-tah-to?
    Sinker
     
    Statcast classifies Rogers’ fastball as a sinker. Sinkers averaging 94.2 MPH are usually quite filthy. It’s trending near his career average in terms of percentage of pitches thrown, but has been dethroned as his favorite pitch due the success of his slider. Regardless, the sinker is a key to establish his breaking balls and it’s going to appear in almost every plate appearance.
     


    Rogers’ sinker has been more effective in 2019, nearly matching the performance of his slider this season. It’s always nice when average velocity increases on non-breaking pitches, and Rogers’ sinker has increased by 0.7 MPH from 2018. That seems to be a common trend across Wes Johnson’s pupils.
    Four-Seamer
     
    Rogers has thrown a four-seam fastball once this season. It deserves one sentence.
    It nearly hit Gordon Beckham in 0-2 count with the bases loaded.
     
     
    Overall Takeaway
     
    Rogers has continued his dominance with breaking balls, but the pitch selection has shifted to favor his slider over his curveball. The slider hasn’t been quite as dominant as 2018, but improvements to the spin and exit velocity suggest that it’s a pitch worth throwing more than he did last year. That doesn’t quite explain the severe drop-off in curveballs thrown, maybe there’s an explanation that can’t be defined by Statcast. Regardless of this shift, he's still the ace of the bullpen.
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