Robert Gauthier

Recently, the Twins acquired Pablo Lopez plus two prospects in exchange for Luis Arraez. While the trade could be unpopular and controversial within the fanbase, Lopez adds depth to a starting rotation with multiple question marks. 
Looking deeper into Lopez's numbers, you might notice something out of place: he has a drastic home/away split  - and not in the way you might think. Due to familiarity, weather, fans, and multiple other factors, a pitcher's stat line is often significantly improved at home. Take Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, for example: 
Sonny Gray
Home - 67.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 10.4 SO/9
Away - 52 IP, 3.63 ERA, 6.8 SO/9
Joe Ryan
Home - 83 IP, 3.04 ERA, 9.8 SO/9
Away - 64 IP, 4.22 ERA, 8.6 SO/9
Pablo Lopez is almost the exact opposite. 
Home - 87 IP, 4.55 ERA, 8.1 SO/9
Away - 93 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9
Lopez had more innings pitched, a higher ERA and WHIP, and worse strikeout and homerun numbers while playing at his home stadium. Why is this the case, and what could it mean for his time as a Twin?
Baseball Savant uses multiple advanced stats to measure the differences between venues, including Park Factor, wOBACon, and BACON. Lopez’s previous home stadium, the Marlins’ loanDepot Park, ranks about average in all three. loanDepot Park ranks even lower for home runs, in the bottom third in the MLB. There is nothing out of the ordinary to suggest it inherently hurts pitchers. 
All of the loanDepot park factors are irrelevant now as Target Field will be his home field. Target Field favors pitchers slightly more than Miami, suggesting a slight upgrade in home-field production. 
But strength of schedule also appears to play a role in his reduced home numbers. Lopez played in the NL East, arguably MLB’s toughest division. At home, he faced off against NL East rivals four times, along with starts against the Padres, Dodgers, and Cardinals. All the teams that Lopez made home starts against have a combined win percentage of .516. For comparison, the Baltimore Orioles have the most challenging schedule heading into 2023 with a .509 win percentage.  
This should be a problem no more, as the AL Central is arguably the worst division in baseball. The Twins are heading into 2023 with the third-easiest strength of schedule at .495. Instead of multiple games against the Mets and Braves, he gets multiple games against the Royals and Tigers. The Twins will play 26 home division games next year, and assuming health, Lopez will get four or five of those starts. 
Every team and every individual player has their weaknesses, but the Twins are lucky when it comes to Pablo Lopez because there is a simple explanation for one of his glaring issues. Lopez should already see improvements by simply playing at Target Field and in the AL Central. By the end of the season, Pablo Lopez could implement himself at the top of the rotation and become a fan favorite at his new home stadium.