glunn

Kyle Farmer is a starting quality MLB SS will fill a bench role for the Twins this year. While he is valuable in that role, his biggest value might have just come in - as a trade chip to the Dodgers to replace Gavin Lux at SS after Lux tore his ACL yesterday.  The Dodgers other option is 34-year-old Miguel Rojas who they acquired from the Marlins before spring training. You have to think the Dodgers are looking for a starting caliber SS that's locked into a reserve role on another team, particularly one who can be a 1 or 2 year option while Lux recovers or they get a free agent next winter. Voilà! 32-year-old longtime starting SS Kyle Farmer seems to meet all of those criteria.
Interestingly enough, the Dodgers could also use a proven outfielder. They do have Mookie Betts in right, but are looking at an aging Chris Taylor and an unproven  Trayce Thompson to play center with a very unproven James Outman in left. It seems like a respected veteran like Max Kepler might be a good fit.

I think there's a real possibility that Kyle Farmer becomes a trade talking point between the Twins and the Dodgers. It would not surprise me if Kepler is also in the discussion. The Dodgers have a deep farm system particularly in pitching and catching. I do think there's a match. May be a Caleb Ferguson or Andre Jackson might be a good piece for Farmer. Add Kepler and maybe you can get Outman, Landon Knack, or Nick Mastrini or 1 of them plus someone a little farther down the list? Who knows, maybe there's a way to pry Ryan Pepiot away if you offer, Farmer, Kepler and maybe a solid AA guy.
I think there's a real opportunity here for the Twins to trade what are now somewhat redundant pieces - a 32-year-old starting caliber Shortstop who will be relegated to a reserve role for the one year he is with the team and a 30-year-old good fielding, roughly average hitting outfielder for whom there seemed to be adequate replacements. The Dodgers are a win now team that needs both those kinds of players. What you guys think?

As you have likely seen at this point, the Twins signed Infielder Donovan Solano to a 1 year, $2 million dollar deal. When you first look at this deal, you may have thought that Solano is a similar role to Kyle Farmer and seems to be redundant. While there may be some overlap, I think there are a few reasons where both guys still get a good amount of at bats this year, especially against lefties. 
So let's compare Solano to a few other guys that I saw many people mention as targets for the Twins, Luke Voit and Yuli Gurriel. One reason the ladder two guys were brought up was their ability to hit lefties, so let's look at that first. 
Luke Voit versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .174/.298/.271. I will concede that these stats are lower than his career .236/.329/.439 line against lefties. 
Yuli Gurriel versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .265/.298/.441. These are slightly lower than his career .282/.333/.474 line against lefties as well. 
As for the Twins most recent acquisition, here are his stats versus lefties: 
Donovan Solano had a slash line of .301/.348/.422 line versus lefties in 2022. His career line is .282/.322/.389. 
The next thing I wanted to compare these players on was their Walk%, K% and their projected WAR going forward. 
Walk %: 
Voit: 10.2%
Gurriel: 5.7%
Solano: 5.7%
K %: 
Voit: 28.5%
Gurriel: 11.2%
Solano: 18.0%
Projected WAR (using ZiPS): 
Voit: 0.8 WAR
Gurriel: 1.5 WAR
Solano: 1.2 WAR
Seeing these stats, you might try to say that Gurriel would be the best choice of the three for a fit. The reason I think this is not the case can be summed up in one word: versatility. 
Donovan Solano can not only play 1B, but can also play 2B, 3B, and will likely get some ABs as a DH as well, against lefties specifically. Gurriel at this point in his career is a 1B with the ability to DH of course as well. Voit is a 1B/DH as well. 
Not to overlook Solano's ability to hit against righties as well. He doesn't hit righties super well, but can at least give you a good AB if needed. He has a career slash line of .276/.329/.367 against RHP.
One thing to remember is Solano is a depth piece who, similar to Kyle Farmer, will play mostly against LHP with occasional starts coming against RHP. Solano's versatility will also be helpful in case someone gets dinged up (which will happen at some point) and as a potential defensive replacement depending on who is in the game as well. Solano hits a lot of line drives, as evidence by his career .332 BABIP. 
I'd like to make this clear, I don't think Donovan Solano is an all star level player, but I think he's a solid depth piece that gives manager Rocco Baldelli another option this coming year. The Twins depth is much different than the past years, and hopefully this means they learned their lesson regarding not being too top heavy on the roster and not having as much depth. 
Let me know what you all think of the Solano signing. Who do you think this bumps off the roster? My gut reaction says Larnach, but maybe things change before opening day (perhaps a trade?). 

I believe that injuries to outfielders could be greatly reduced if the outfield padding at Target Field were replaced with high tech padding.  
One option would be to replace the existing padding with much thicker padding that has a layer of low density foam on the outside (facing the players) and thicker densities closer to the concrete wall. I have a mattress that came in a box that has this arrangement and believe that this approach could be adapted to baseball to cut the trauma from hitting the wall by 80% or more.
Or the Twins could borrow from Hollywood stunt people and use technology based on the air bags and crash mats that lets stunt people fall from high places without injury.  https://fall-pac.com/news/fall-protection-for-stunt-men/
Based on some rough math, I believe that for $500,000 of R&D, $1 million of manufacturing cost and $500,000 of installation costs, the Twins could have an outfield wall that could cut the injury rate by more than 50%, perhaps more than 90%.  This would be peanuts compared with the loss of value if Buxton gets injured on the current wall.  To me this is a lot like adding roll cages to race cars -- a small cost for a lot of safety.  
What value of WAR will be lost if Buxton gets injured by the wall?  And I firmly believe that Royce Lewis would not have been hurt at all last year by his wall collision if the high tech wall had been in place.  
One small side benefit would be a slight home field advantage -- balls that hit the padding would tend to stick and die there, not bounce back into the field of play.  The Twins players would develop expertise in dealing with that.  Players from other teams would have to learn how to adapt, like with the ivy at Wrigley.  Another side benefit would be that players could be more aggressive when they are near the wall, knowing that it is by far the safest wall on the planet.
I believe that eventually all teams will have this.  Why not get out in front of it and maybe even develop some patents to make other teams pay to get it?
 
 
 

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Blayne Enlow passed through waivers and has been outrighted to AA. I thought he might be part of a trade package or get picked up by a lesser team. Guess the FO knew better than I or many of us here did. I don't like everything they do but you have to give them props when they take a calculated risk and it works out. 

I believe that injuries to outfielders could be greatly reduced if the outfield padding at Target Field were replaced with high tech padding.  
One option would be to replace the existing padding with much thicker padding that has a layer of low density foam on the outside (facing the players) and thicker densities closer to the concrete wall. I have a mattress that came in a box that has this arrangement and believe that this approach could be adapted to baseball to cut the trauma from hitting the wall by 80% or more.
Or the Twins could borrow from Hollywood stunt people and use technology based on the air bags and crash mats that lets stunt people fall from high places without injury.  https://fall-pac.com/news/fall-protection-for-stunt-men/
Based on some rough math, I believe that for $500,000 of R&D, $1 million of manufacturing cost and $500,000 of installation costs, the Twins could have an outfield wall that could cut the injury rate by more than 50%, perhaps more than 90%.  This would be peanuts compared with the loss of value if Buxton gets injured on the current wall.  To me this is a lot like adding roll cages to race cars -- a small cost for a lot of safety.  
What value of WAR will be lost if Buxton gets injured by the wall?  And I firmly believe that Royce Lewis would not have been hurt at all last year by his wall collision if the high tech wall had been in place.  
One small side benefit would be a slight home field advantage -- balls that hit the padding would tend to stick and die there, not bounce back into the field of play.  The Twins players would develop expertise in dealing with that.  Players from other teams would have to learn how to adapt, like with the ivy at Wrigley.  Another side benefit would be that players could be more aggressive when they are near the wall, knowing that it is by far the safest wall on the planet.
I believe that eventually all teams will have this.  Why not get out in front of it and maybe even develop some patents to make other teams pay to get it?
 
 
 

I believe that injuries to outfielders could be greatly reduced if the outfield padding at Target Field were replaced with high tech padding.  
One option would be to replace the existing padding with much thicker padding that has a layer of low density foam on the outside (facing the players) and thicker densities closer to the concrete wall. I have a mattress that came in a box that has this arrangement and believe that this approach could be adapted to baseball to cut the trauma from hitting the wall by 80% or more.
Or the Twins could borrow from Hollywood stunt people and use technology based on the air bags and crash mats that lets stunt people fall from high places without injury.  https://fall-pac.com/news/fall-protection-for-stunt-men/
Based on some rough math, I believe that for $500,000 of R&D, $1 million of manufacturing cost and $500,000 of installation costs, the Twins could have an outfield wall that could cut the injury rate by more than 50%, perhaps more than 90%.  This would be peanuts compared with the loss of value if Buxton gets injured on the current wall.  To me this is a lot like adding roll cages to race cars -- a small cost for a lot of safety.  
What value of WAR will be lost if Buxton gets injured by the wall?  And I firmly believe that Royce Lewis would not have been hurt at all last year by his wall collision if the high tech wall had been in place.  
One small side benefit would be a slight home field advantage -- balls that hit the padding would tend to stick and die there, not bounce back into the field of play.  The Twins players would develop expertise in dealing with that.  Players from other teams would have to learn how to adapt, like with the ivy at Wrigley.  Another side benefit would be that players could be more aggressive when they are near the wall, knowing that it is by far the safest wall on the planet.
I believe that eventually all teams will have this.  Why not get out in front of it and maybe even develop some patents to make other teams pay to get it?
 
 
 

I believe that injuries to outfielders could be greatly reduced if the outfield padding at Target Field were replaced with high tech padding.  
One option would be to replace the existing padding with much thicker padding that has a layer of low density foam on the outside (facing the players) and thicker densities closer to the concrete wall. I have a mattress that came in a box that has this arrangement and believe that this approach could be adapted to baseball to cut the trauma from hitting the wall by 80% or more.
Or the Twins could borrow from Hollywood stunt people and use technology based on the air bags and crash mats that lets stunt people fall from high places without injury.  https://fall-pac.com/news/fall-protection-for-stunt-men/
Based on some rough math, I believe that for $500,000 of R&D, $1 million of manufacturing cost and $500,000 of installation costs, the Twins could have an outfield wall that could cut the injury rate by more than 50%, perhaps more than 90%.  This would be peanuts compared with the loss of value if Buxton gets injured on the current wall.  To me this is a lot like adding roll cages to race cars -- a small cost for a lot of safety.  
What value of WAR will be lost if Buxton gets injured by the wall?  And I firmly believe that Royce Lewis would not have been hurt at all last year by his wall collision if the high tech wall had been in place.  
One small side benefit would be a slight home field advantage -- balls that hit the padding would tend to stick and die there, not bounce back into the field of play.  The Twins players would develop expertise in dealing with that.  Players from other teams would have to learn how to adapt, like with the ivy at Wrigley.  Another side benefit would be that players could be more aggressive when they are near the wall, knowing that it is by far the safest wall on the planet.
I believe that eventually all teams will have this.  Why not get out in front of it and maybe even develop some patents to make other teams pay to get it?
 
 
 

I believe that injuries to outfielders could be greatly reduced if the outfield padding at Target Field were replaced with high tech padding.  
One option would be to replace the existing padding with much thicker padding that has a layer of low density foam on the outside (facing the players) and thicker densities closer to the concrete wall. I have a mattress that came in a box that has this arrangement and believe that this approach could be adapted to baseball to cut the trauma from hitting the wall by 80% or more.
Or the Twins could borrow from Hollywood stunt people and use technology based on the air bags and crash mats that lets stunt people fall from high places without injury.  https://fall-pac.com/news/fall-protection-for-stunt-men/
Based on some rough math, I believe that for $500,000 of R&D, $1 million of manufacturing cost and $500,000 of installation costs, the Twins could have an outfield wall that could cut the injury rate by more than 50%, perhaps more than 90%.  This would be peanuts compared with the loss of value if Buxton gets injured on the current wall.  To me this is a lot like adding roll cages to race cars -- a small cost for a lot of safety.  
What value of WAR will be lost if Buxton gets injured by the wall?  And I firmly believe that Royce Lewis would not have been hurt at all last year by his wall collision if the high tech wall had been in place.  
One small side benefit would be a slight home field advantage -- balls that hit the padding would tend to stick and die there, not bounce back into the field of play.  The Twins players would develop expertise in dealing with that.  Players from other teams would have to learn how to adapt, like with the ivy at Wrigley.  Another side benefit would be that players could be more aggressive when they are near the wall, knowing that it is by far the safest wall on the planet.
I believe that eventually all teams will have this.  Why not get out in front of it and maybe even develop some patents to make other teams pay to get it?
 
 
 

I believe that injuries to outfielders could be greatly reduced if the outfield padding at Target Field were replaced with high tech padding.  
One option would be to replace the existing padding with much thicker padding that has a layer of low density foam on the outside (facing the players) and thicker densities closer to the concrete wall. I have a mattress that came in a box that has this arrangement and believe that this approach could be adapted to baseball to cut the trauma from hitting the wall by 80% or more.
Or the Twins could borrow from Hollywood stunt people and use technology based on the air bags and crash mats that lets stunt people fall from high places without injury.  https://fall-pac.com/news/fall-protection-for-stunt-men/
Based on some rough math, I believe that for $500,000 of R&D, $1 million of manufacturing cost and $500,000 of installation costs, the Twins could have an outfield wall that could cut the injury rate by more than 50%, perhaps more than 90%.  This would be peanuts compared with the loss of value if Buxton gets injured on the current wall.  To me this is a lot like adding roll cages to race cars -- a small cost for a lot of safety.  
What value of WAR will be lost if Buxton gets injured by the wall?  And I firmly believe that Royce Lewis would not have been hurt at all last year by his wall collision if the high tech wall had been in place.  
One small side benefit would be a slight home field advantage -- balls that hit the padding would tend to stick and die there, not bounce back into the field of play.  The Twins players would develop expertise in dealing with that.  Players from other teams would have to learn how to adapt, like with the ivy at Wrigley.  Another side benefit would be that players could be more aggressive when they are near the wall, knowing that it is by far the safest wall on the planet.
I believe that eventually all teams will have this.  Why not get out in front of it and maybe even develop some patents to make other teams pay to get it?
 
 
 

I believe that injuries to outfielders could be greatly reduced if the outfield padding at Target Field were replaced with high tech padding.  
One option would be to replace the existing padding with much thicker padding that has a layer of low density foam on the outside (facing the players) and thicker densities closer to the concrete wall. I have a mattress that came in a box that has this arrangement and believe that this approach could be adapted to baseball to cut the trauma from hitting the wall by 80% or more.
Or the Twins could borrow from Hollywood stunt people and use technology based on the air bags and crash mats that lets stunt people fall from high places without injury.  https://fall-pac.com/news/fall-protection-for-stunt-men/
Based on some rough math, I believe that for $500,000 of R&D, $1 million of manufacturing cost and $500,000 of installation costs, the Twins could have an outfield wall that could cut the injury rate by more than 50%, perhaps more than 90%.  This would be peanuts compared with the loss of value if Buxton gets injured on the current wall.  To me this is a lot like adding roll cages to race cars -- a small cost for a lot of safety.  
What value of WAR will be lost if Buxton gets injured by the wall?  And I firmly believe that Royce Lewis would not have been hurt at all last year by his wall collision if the high tech wall had been in place.  
One small side benefit would be a slight home field advantage -- balls that hit the padding would tend to stick and die there, not bounce back into the field of play.  The Twins players would develop expertise in dealing with that.  Players from other teams would have to learn how to adapt, like with the ivy at Wrigley.  Another side benefit would be that players could be more aggressive when they are near the wall, knowing that it is by far the safest wall on the planet.
I believe that eventually all teams will have this.  Why not get out in front of it and maybe even develop some patents to make other teams pay to get it?
 
 
 

Go ahead, give me your hokey analytics about "Joey Gallo only hits .200," "There are now 5 lefty corner outfielders on this team," and "Joey Gallo has the highest K rate of all time." Well guess what nerds, I care about the stallion in the Italian, not what his "box score" may look like.
Jokes aside, although not a world-moving acquisition, I think that it makes some sense, though it broke at an unfortunate time--two days after Correa signed with San Francisco and one day after Carlos Rodón signed with New York. Certainly, if the Twins' biggest signing this offseason is Joey Gallo, fans have reason to be upset. I do follow the offseason move-to-move and react to each move, but I am not one to put the label OFFSEASON FAILED on a team until the season begins and the Opening Day roster is finalized.
First, though, let's cover the negatives. Gallo had a horrendous season last year, with a slash line of .160/.280/.357. If he performs like that again in 2023, he will likely be out of the league. He strikes out way too much and has a laughably low batting average, and that can only be expected to continue without an approach change. Players' bat-to-ball skills do not improve with age, and Gallo will enter 2023 as a 29-year-old. Furthermore, Gallo enters a crowded space of left-handed corner outfielders alongside Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon, and Matt Wallner. Of all the player types the Twins could have pursued, they got a guy who plays at their arguably deepest position.
With those strikes against him, why don't I mind the signing? There are a few reasons:
The corner depth is hypothetical
Yes, there is a glut of corner outfield depth on this roster, and they are all lefties (with the exception of Gilberto Celestino, who is a corner guy in name only, given his poor stick). However, let's go through those options. Even before the Gallo signing, Kepler was going to be moved. Even if he didn't already have one foot out the door, it's debatable that Kepler would be better than Gallo. Both have high floors, given their defensive ability, but Kepler, outside of 2019, has not shown the chops to be anything better than a league average hitter. Gallo, on the other hand, has shown the ability to hit at an all-star level as recently as 2021.
After Kepler, the top two guys are Kirilloff and Larnach, neither of which have proven much of anything between 2021 and 2022. Both have shown flashes of potential to be high-level hitters, and I still believe in them, but both have also been bogged down by significant injuries. Gordon was on the shortlist to be DFAed during the 2022 season prior to his development as a top hitter in the depleted Twins lineup in 2022, but his performance was bolstered by a high BAPIP and he is more suited as a utility player than an everyday left fielder or the strong side of a platoon. Wallner impressed last season at both AA and AAA and had a solid run after his late season callup, but that's all the major league experience that he has.
Between the four of them, they have 1,584 MLB plate appearances combined, the equivalent of about three seasons as an everyday player. If the Twins started the season without Kepler or another corner outfield acquisition, they would start with Kirilloff in left and Larnach in right, and if either of them got injured, which is likely given their history, Gordon would be pushed into an everyday role, and Wallner would probably be up as a fourth outfielder. I think that they can all ball, but that's a thin group to enter the season with.
I do believe that there is another righty bat coming the Twins way (Jurickson Profar is the guy I want to see now), and I can be convinced that it's not the end of the world for either Larnach or Kirilloff to start the season in AAA, given that neither is a sure thing.
Joey Gallo can reasonably become Joey Gallo again
In terms of buy-low hitters, Gallo probably has the highest ceiling outside of Cody Bellinger and his 17.5MM contract with a 12MM mutant option for 2024. When Gallo is playing at the form he's capable of, he can get on-base 35% of the time despite his astronomical strikeout rate and low batting average because of his astronomical walk rate (13% for his career). He can bop 30+ homers, with two 40 home run seasons to his name. He can play Gold Glove defense in right field.
Obviously, there's a lot of ifs in this conversation, but it's better to take a shot at a guy like Gallo than to fill a spot with a low-ceiling Trey Mancini, AJ Pollack, or Adam Frazier type of player for the same money. If you're going to give out a one-year contract to a veteran, give it to someone who is one year removed from an All Star season and is still under 30.
If the Twins and Gallo are fortunate and he makes good on his prove-it deal, he will likely be up for a big payday prior to the 2024 season. The Twins would love to watch him go. It would mean that he turned in a good year for the team, helping them contend for an AL Central title. However, there is an added bonus that only schmucks like me care about. Because he performed poorly in his final arbitration year (and was traded in-season), he did not receive a qualifying offer and is eligible for one in 2024. If he puts up a Gallo-esque season with a 125 OPS+, 35 homers, and great right field defense, he would likely decline the offer, giving the Twins an extra draft pick for 2024. I for one would like to see that happen.
Positional flexibility
Gallo is a great right fielder, due to his solid range and great arm. He also has experience at all three outfield positions, first base, and third base. I don't see Gallo ever returning to the hot corner.

gallo.mp4  
 
However, we all know that the Twins love themselves some position flexibility. The only alignment that would make sense to put Gallo at first base would be three of Byron Buxton, Gordon, Larnach, and Celestino being in the game alongside Gallo, as they would likely prefer Kirilloff and Wallner at first over him. Still, the option is there.
More importantly is his ability to fill in in centerfield. He has not played there much since 2019, partially due to the personnel of the teams he was on. He didn't look bad in his work in center, though it has been 4 years since he had significant time out there. That being said, he would provide an extra layer of security for centerfield, which is important given Buxton's injury history.
Is he a long-term replacement candidate if Buxton misses extended time with injury? Probably not, but I would bet that he will end up playing more centerfield this year than Max Kepler, another top defensive right fielder with the ability to play center, did last year (9 innings across 3 games). I wrote about the importance of having a third centerfielder and keeping Celestino down in AAA for the sake of the team and the player a couple weeks ago. Gallo fits the bill there.
It's only 11 million for one year
The cat was out of the bag by the time Gallo signed: the Twins do not plan on devoting 25MM+ to any one player this offseason. With 50MM to spend to reach last year's payroll, it's not a terrible use of 11MM. If he hits .160 through May and Wallner is killing it at AAA, I don't think the Twins will sweat the lost pay. He can easily be cut at that level.
All of this is incumbent on him hitting at least .200, but that's a given.

In the 2019 offseason, the Twins had four promising young outfielders in the minors who could reasonably be projected to stick as MLB centerfielders, occupying at least a 4th outfielder role--Misael Urbina, Gabriel Maciel, Akil Baddoo, and Gilberto Celestino.
Urbina (20) is still in the organization, finishing the season at A-ball Ft. Myers. Maciel was claimed off waivers before the 2022 season by Oakland. Baddoo, quite infamously, was taken by the Tigers in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, a fact that Twins personnel and fans are unlikely to forget following his rookie season in Detroit in which he slashed .259/.330/.436 over 124 games splitting time between left and centerfield (though not much griping is heard about him lately, given his struggles in 2022). The team may still come to regret not placing Baddoo on the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.
In contrast, the 4th player on that list, Gilberto Celestino, was protected from the Rule 5 Draft prior to the 2020 season as a 20-year-old player fresh off of finishing a good year at High-A Ft. Myers (and Cedar Rapids), a similar position to where Urbina is today. However, the timing of that move is meaningful, which will be unpacked shortly.
As a 20-year-old who had not played at AA yet, the case to protect the second piece of the Ryan Pressly trade wasn't strong, but it was still understandable to have a bit of fear of a solid defensive centerfielder being plucked away. After being added, Celestino spent the following season as part of the extended roster during the 2020 shortened and restricted season, not playing any games, but working out with Twins personnel nonetheless. All things considered, not the worst outcome.
The following two years, however, have been no more beneficial to his development. After a string of injuries to Twins centerfielders (and non-centerfielders like Rob Refsnyder and Kyle Garlick that were trotted out in center anyway) Celestino was forced into action in 2021, far before he was ready, leading to some ugly play from a 22-year-old player with no AAA experience and 96 plate appearances above A-ball. He also spent the entirety of 2022 with the big league club, save a week in AAA between Miguel Sano being activated and then placed back on the IL. He led the team in both games played in centerfield and games played in the outfield overall due to injuries in both leftfield and centerfield. However, this again was not an ideal situation for the young player, who slashed an unsavory .238/.313/.302 despite intense BAPIP luck in the opening month of the season while playing average outfield defense.
This blog was originally written under the assumption that Celestino was out of options as of the 2023 season, but I made an important discovery in researching Celestino's situation. He fortunately still has one, as his July demotion only lasted 4 days, short of MLB's 20-day grace period for the option to be used. The misfortune of the Twins roster situation has actually given Celestino another shot at a development year. Had he been in St. Paul much longer, he would be restricted to the MLB team unless the club exposed him to waivers, and I fail to see a world in which a 24-year-old, capable centerfielder with some upside making the minimum would go unclaimed on waivers.
So that brings us to today. At present, he projects on next year's squad as a fourth-outfielder type, alongside hypothetical bench bats Nick Gordon, Kyle Garlick, and Mystery Backup Catcher. However, that bench setup assumes that newly-acquired Kyle Farmer would be starting at shortstop. Should the Twins add a shortstop to start over Farmer, the bench becomes crowded.
Even without Farmer filling a reserve role, Celestino's skills are redundant on this roster as one of three bench outfielders on a team already projected to start four capable outfielders. As the team's seventh outfielder, Celestino is behind Nick Gordon as the primary backup centerfielder and behind Kyle Garlick as the bench righthanded bat. He is not markedly faster than Nick Gordon, so even in a pinch runner role, he is not clearly valuable. His OPS+ was the lowest on the 2022 team among players with at least 80 plate appearances, so he cannot be looked to as a situational pinch hitter, either.
Given this information, should the Twins want to keep Garlick around for a platoon role, Celestino seems to be the odd man out. This would be the best thing for his development, though. In his limited experience at AAA, he has shown promise with an .804 OPS in 220 plate appearances. Giving him a few months (or a full year) to grow in St. Paul would be the best thing for his development as an unpolished centerfielder with above-average but not good upside.
However, in order to afford the team and Celestino this luxury, there needs to be an additional line of defense between Celestino and everyday centerfield work. Byron Buxton's injury is well-documented, and the team has shown an unwillingness to move Max Kepler over to centerfield in recent years (9 innings in CF in 2022). Because of this, the Twins are an injury away from Nick Gordon being the everyday centerfielder and Celestino being the next man up.
If the Twins are serious about giving Celestino the best shot at developing into a solid contributor to the big league team for years to come, there needs to be at least one more centerfield option before turning to the young Dominican, even if just for the first couple months of the season. This could take the form of the coveted righty bat that I gave my opinion on here, such as an everyday play player like Adam Duvall. However, it doesn't need to be that great of an investment. Signing someone at the level of Travis Jankowski, Albert Almora, Brett Phillips, Kevin Pillar, or Adam Engel on a minor league deal would do the trick, providing one extra line of defense between Celestino and the big league squad as even a temporary fill-in should Buxton miss time with injury. Essentially, anyone over the cutoff of the 2022 version of Billy Hamilton will do.
A failure to find one more, even replacement-level, veteran to fill a backup-backup centerfield role may cost Celestino his last chance at incubating at AAA to realize his full hit tool. Forcing him into service for a third consecutive year in a reserve role with only 316 plate appearances between AA and AAA will not allow him to reach his potential. The Twins are fortunate to still have Celestino's third option year, and they should take advantage of it.

Shortstop Angst

According to Team Rankings (https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/double-plays-per-game) the Twins ranked 23 out of 30 teams in double plays per game with an average of .73. Pre-Correa (2021) the Twins averaged .85 per game. Twins finish in the division? 3rd in 2022, 5th in 2021.
Number One on the list, St. Louis at 1.11 per game.
Last on the List? NY Yankees at .65.
Which of the three teams made it to the play-offs? Cards and Yankees. Ponder that.
Fielding https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-fielding-leaders.shtml
Double Plays Turned at SS 2022
1. Mateo Baltimore 91
2. Seager Texas 91
3. Perdomo Arizona 83
4. Lindor NYM 82    
5. Bogaerts Boston 78
21. Correa 51
Putouts at SS 2022
1. Lindor 198
2. Swanson Atlanta 193
3. Baez Detroit 187
4. Rojas Miami 184
5. Mateo 181
15. Correa 157
Assists at SS 2022
1. Mateo 417
2. Seager 407
3. Bogaerts 401
4. Swanson 391
5. Lindor 385
19. Correa 307
Games at SS
1. Swanson 161
2. Turner LA 160
3. Lindor 159
4. Bichette Toronto 157
5. Mateo 149
18. Correa 132
Shortstop Salaries (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/salary/shortstop/)
1. Correa $35,100,000
2. Lindor $34,100,000
3. Seager $33,000,000
4. Turner $21,000,000
5. Bogaerts $20,000,000
5. Baez $20,000,000
8. Swanson $10,000,000
15. Rojas $5,500,000
28. Bichette $825,000
32. Mateo $709,500
38. Perdomo $701,300
How badly do we need Correa?
 

As he was approaching his twenty-third birthday, Tony Oliva waved goodbye to his tightly-knit Cuban family and set off for the United States. But the road was rocky in Florida. The Twins decided that his poor fielding trumped his lively bat, so they released him. A dejected Oliva wanted to return home, but that would make his dream of making the big leagues impossible.
     Fortunately, fate intervened. Another Cuban ballplayer, Minnie Mendoza, took Oliva under his wing and introduced him to Phil Howser, the general manager of the minor league team from Charlotte, North Carolina. Howser and Papa Joe were friends, and he trusted Papa Joe’s recommendation about Oliva. Howser watched Oliva practice, and was impressed with the “not-so-young” Oliva's talent. He generously agreed to pay Pedro Jr.’s meals and lodging until he could help Oliva sign a long-term contract. Though there wasn’t a spot on the Charlotte team, the general manager was certain that another Twins affiliate would eventually sign him if he was given more time to prove himself.
**********
By the 1950s, Ernest Hemingway had already achieved the highest honors in his profession. In 1953, he won the Pulitzer Prize for The Old Man and the Sea, and in 1954, he won the Nobel Prize in Literature. Hemingway, who liked to be called Papa, loved baseball. But the late 1950s were not a good time for the great writer. While Oliva was spraying balls to all parts of the ballpark, batting fourth for the Los Palacios team in the Pinar del Río province, the peripatetic Hemingway—now in his late fifties—was starting a steep decline into depression. Ingesting copious amounts of alcohol by day, he would consume a large quantity of drugs at night to treat depression, hypertension, a liver ailment and eye problems. 
     Did Papa Hemingway and Tony Oliva ever cross paths? It could have happened. Once in a while, Papa Joe Cambria would invite a friend to join him for  a baseball game. Papa Joe was a scout for the Washington Senators (the Senators moved from Washington in 1961 and became the Minnesota Twins), and he liked to have a drink or two in Havana’s Floridita bar.
     This story is part yarn, part fantasy and part truth. It is left to you, the reader, to decide which parts are true and which are fiction.  
[Note: the above blog was extracted from a book entitled, Ernest Hemingway and Tony Oliva: How the Great Writer Helped the Great Ballplayer. The book can be found on Amazon or by going to http://curtdeberg.com ].

Jim Pohlad made the decision to hire Derek Falvey 6 years ago after a disappointing 2016 season where expectations were raised based on improvements seen in 2015. The primary decision to choose Falvey was modernizing the player development system with analytics so the Twins' farm system could sustain competitive play long term operating like a smaller market team. The biggest issue the Twins had was their utter failure to develop front line starters. Jose Berrios, despite his stellar numbers in the minors, had been eaten alive by MLB hitters and the farm system was looking a bit rough. Naturally, having graduated Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Berrios in the last two years, that's going to see a farm system take a beating.
Falvey went into 2017's playoffs with a virtually identical team as the Twins fielded in 2016, and again in 2019 and 2020. The winning tradition was restored! Except Falvey did it all with a roster largely created from the drafts and signings of Bill Smith and Terry Ryan. Falvey had major hits... but most of the hits eventually turned into misses. Ervin Santana, Jake Odorizzi and Jason Castro all ended their time with the Twins with a whimper, but this article is really about the sustainability factor. That's why Falvey was hired. Not for free agent signings. For a sustainable, productive draft and development system built from analytics and cutting edge baseball knowledge.
I graded Falvey's top 3 rounds of drafting a couple months ago, and the situation has changed quite a bit, but again, I'm interested in the sustainability of the team. What do the Twins have in the system to fill the enormous holes on the roster coming up? Again, the idea was not that Falvey constructs a roster out of free agents when he was hired. What did the system look like when Falvey started?
#1 - Nick Gordon*
#2 - Tyler Jay
#3 - Fernando Romero*
#4 - Alex Kirilloff*
#5 - Stephen Gonsalves*
#6 - Wander Javier
#7 - Kohl Stewart*
#8 - Adalberto Mejia*
#9 - Ben Rortvedt*
#10 - Zach Granite*
*7 of those players made significant appearances at the MLB level, and in general, they were viewed pretty highly at the time. The Twins' farm system was right in the middle.

So what about today? There isn't much there. MLB's top prospects set for the Twins are:
#1 Lewis (a23)- Undoubtedly the only elite prospect in the Twins system. He could be a star. He's also younger than Martin or Balazovic... as hard as that is to believe. Lewis torched AAA and proceeded to shine bright in a handful of plate appearances at the MLB level. With a character as brilliant as his athleticism, the sky is the limit... if he can stay on the field and prove his performance wasn't a SSS fluke.
#2 Martin (a23) - Has seen his stock take a real beating this year. He went from a consensus top 50 prospect to falling well out of the top 100 on the failure to develop power and a lower batting average coupled with embarrassing defense. There was improvement in Martin's defense at SS with the error rate trending towards almost acceptable, but Martin's suffered an injured elbow diving for a ball at the beginning of July. It wasn't expected to be a big deal, but here we are a month later and he still hasn't played while (stop me if you've heard this one) the Twins hadn't been able to diagnose the issue at least as of mid July...
#3 Balazovic (a23) - If Martin's stock had a silver lining, it's Balazovic's stock. It's not possible to understate how disastrous his performance has been this year. He wouldn't even be ranked on a good farm system top 15 at this point. While there is the hope Balazovic's struggles are related to injury, the Twins don't seem to feel like the injury is an issue. They keep sending him out, Balazovic continues to get consistently destroyed.
#4 Woods-Richardson (a21) - He had another great start to the season, but he started struggling with control like last year leading to a rocketing WHIP and lots of runs. Then, there was a lengthy IL trip for COVID. Woods-Richardson probably moves to my #2 prospect in the Twins system at this point with overall impressive strike out rates, a great 4 pitch combo and stretches where he dominates. There's still a lot of potential.
#5 Matt Canterino - (a24) - Bordering on non-prospect age, Canterino is putting up impressive K rates with equally depressing BB rates in AA. He's working his way back from yet another elbow strain in the Florida Complex league where he was knocked around in his latest 1 inning appearance. He's certainly not a top 10 prospect in a good farm system and hasn't pitched into the 5 inning this year.
#6 Noah Miller (a19) - The only remaining draft pick from the first 3 rounds of 2021's draft now that Petty, Povich and Hajjar have all been moved, Miller is holding his own at the plate in Ft. Myers while playing very good defense. He's not an elite prospect at this point, but there's a chance Miller can improve his contact skills as he was drafted out of high school. Right now, Miller looks passive at the plate with a 15% walk and 25% strikeout rate more associated with power hitters, but Miller's power tool is scouted as pretty modest and he hasn't shown any of it this year.
#7 Matt Wallner (a24) - Wallner was racing up the prospect lists as a full fledged supernova-style bright spot in the Twins' system. Since his promotion to AAA, Wallner has gone stone cold with a .116/.224/.140 triple slash. That said, it's just 49 plate appearances. Please, please let his swing return to crush the opponent pitchers to end the season.
#8 Misael Urbina (a20) - A speedy center fielder international prospect signed out of Venezuela, Urbina had a really great year in Ft. Myers last season. Unfortunately, he missed half this year due to visa issues. Currently getting his legs under him back in rookie ball, Urbina's hoping to salvage the season.
#9 Brayan Medina (a19) - Came over in the Rogers/Rooker trade for Paddack/Pagan as a toss in. It speaks volumes when the Padres' PTBNL is in your top 10... In rookie ball, Medina has walked a ton of batters while holding the hits to a reasonable number with the help of a .265 BABIP and paltry 5.0% HR/FB rate. He's not in a good farm's top 20, possibly not top 30.
#10 Ronny Henriquez (a22) - The extra player received as part of the Garver trade to the Rangers, Henriquez has struggled to keep batters off the base paths in AAA. Ronny was ranked as the Rangers #15 prospect due to his ability to generate strikeouts and limit the free pass last year in AA. He's probably taken a step back this year as the walk rate has increased by 50% at AAA and batters have been able to generate hits at will leading to his 1.52 WHIP and very rough 5.71 ERA. Also, the Twins have not really been limiting pitches much with Henriquez allowing him to throw up to 92... but he's rarely been able to finish 5 innings. That said, Henriquez has been able to keep a solid K% (though certainly not elite for MiLB), the .352 BABIP is way too high and the walk rate still isn't terrible by any means. So there's still some potential. On a good farm, Henriquez is probably borderline top 20, helped by his age.

I'd argue the farm is currently a big step back from the position it was in back at the start of 2017, where it was middle of the pack. Barring some real turnarounds, I expect the Twins to grade out bottom 5.

So where does that leave Falvey? He was brought in to rebuild the farm system so it would produce high value prospects and especially stock the rotation with high value, inexpensive cost controlled rotation arms the Twins could depend on for several years. While the farm has essentially produced 2 years of Sonny Gray, he's not cheap at $12MM per year and 2 years is hardly a long time. We also used the farm to pick up Tyler Mahle for 1.5 years, but he's also not going to be cheap next year, and certainly not long term. Maybe $12MM? The one glowing example in terms of expense and control is honestly Kenta Maeda. We got 4 years of a cheap, high value rotation arm from moving Brusdar Graterol. That said, I'm not sure the agreed upon strategy was to trade all the talent in the MiLB system for a couple years of productive MLB starters. That's not sustainable and it honestly hasn't been cheap overall. Instead, the Twins have typically felt like a directionless Frankenstein monster to me, pieced together each offseason in the hopes the pieces all gel and what comes out is a lightning strike with the scream "It's ALIVE!!" to begin a playoff season. 

Of course, winning solves everything. If the Twins win the World Series or even win a single playoff series, all will likely be forgotten. Every step short of that, though, has to heat up the seat under Falvey, especially given Falvey stretched the Twins' budget to $138MM (and beyond with recent trades) this year. Hard to believe the Twins turn a profit based on the attendance levels I saw and the Pohlads do not run this team as a hobby.

Disclaimer: Despite the photo, no Byron Buxtons were used in the preparation of this blog entry.
Do I have to say it? Okay, I will, just to get it out of the way: I love the Correa signing.  Teams should be trying to get good players, and we just got one of the best baseball players on the planet, in the middle of what should be his prime years - a center-cut slice, as they say. 
But ever since I heard about it, TWO LONG DAYS AGO, there's been something on my mind.  Risk versus reward.  And I don't think I've seen any of the writeups here, or elsewhere, look at it from this angle.  Did we really outmaneuver the Yankees?  I'm not sure that's what happened, or that New York's front office is gnashing their teeth with regret in the slightest.
Everyone's treating this like it's a one-year contract, and I agree that that's the most likely way it plays out.  But it's not a one-year contract - the Twins committed to three years.  There's the saying that there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract.  The converse is that (because team budgets don't carry over from year to year) everything longer than one year requires the signing team to put its neck into a noose, to one degree or another.
So, what's the risk with this contract, and what's the reward?  The risk is pretty obvious and pretty easy to define - Correa could get hit by a meteor tomorrow* and the Twins still would be on the hook for the full $105.3M, which by their usual accounting would apply equally to the budgets of those three years and in some way impact their ability to operate.  Probably they'll pay him $35.1M for one year of service and then thank him for his service as he departs.  But they've put $105.3M on the table, and are risking it.  You know how you say you'd "bet your house" on some sure proposition? You don't really ever do that, because you would actually have to put the deed to your house out there to be taken if you are proved wrong, and you'd start thinking about all the ways it could indeed go wrong.  It's like that here.  The Twins haven't bet the (Pohlads') house, but there's a significant chunk of change on the table that wasn't there three days ago.  That aspect still seems underappreciated.
Now what's the reward?  Much harder to estimate.  There is expected reward and then there's maximum reward.  Let's focus on the maximum here, since I started with maximum risk.  I'll use WAR as a catch-all for how to measure a player's contribution.  If you want to skip the details, jump down to "I'll Do The Homework Later."
Carlos Correa may not yet have had his "career year" - remember what I said about us getting a center-cut slice?  He might go full-MVP bananas-mode in 2022.  Shohei Ohtani was MVP last year and his pitching/batting WAR on b-r.com added up to 9.0.  So let's go with that.  If Correa has that kind of year, he walks after the season, of course - goodbye and good luck, good sir.
Let's say he goes out and puts up "only" a season like last year, with a WAR of 7.  Same outcome.  He walks away, with smiles all around.
But maybe 2021 actually was his career year, and he follows up like that with an all-star level WAR of 5.  Same outcome - maybe he loves his teammates here, but bidness is bidness, amirite - he leaves.
Maybe he's only above average and his WAR is 3.  Probably he walks, right?  Still can market himself to a big market team for a long contract, certainly for more than the $70.2M he's still owed.
What if he's average, and/or injured part of the time, and his WAR is 2.  Maybe he stays, maybe he walks.  What if it goes really badly and his WAR is 1?  Same uncertainty - maybe he stays, trying to rebuild value.  WAR can be 0 too, or even negative.  Probably he stays, trying to rebuild value.
Okay, sorry to belabor, but my point is that if he stays, it's almost certainly tied to low performance relative to expectations.  Reeeeeally low.
Now, consider Year 2, 2023.  Seems like it's 90% odds that he's gone, and whatever WAR he earned for the Twins this one year is the end of the story.  But in that remaining 10% case, what will be your expectation of WAR for 2023, given that he put up 0 or 1 WAR in 2022?  Depends on why, but probably a WAR of 9 is now off the table - chances of a bounceback like that are just too remote.  Could he return to 2021 levels and deliver 7 WAR?  Sure, maybe.  If he does, then he walks after the year, and his contribution to the Twins is that number plus his (low) 2021 number.  Like around... 8 or 9, for the two years together?  It can't be much higher, because he would have left already.  Of course he might not deliver 7, but only 5 - he still walks after Year Two.  3 WAR - probably he walks.  Lower than that, maybe he stays.
So if it was 10% that he's staying for Year 2, probably it's also at most 50/50 that he's back for Year 3, or 5%.  And that will be only if he's put up WAR in the neighborhood of 0-2 the first year and followed up with 0-2 WAR the second year.  Now what are the odds that he suddenly goes bananas at last, after 2 straight sub-par years?  Really small, right?  Anything can happen, but an MVP type season really is unlikely.  He could win Comeback Player of the Year with a 5 WAR.  I think that's about the ceiling at that point.  0-2, plus 0-2, plus 5, equals... gee, 9 at most, again.
There are all kinds of ways to do this kind of analysis, because nothing is certain.  But I've convinced myself that the absolute maximum the Twins can sanely hope for, from this particular contract, is a total WAR of 9, whether in one season or spread across multiple.
"I'll Do The Homework Later."  Good, I don't blame you.  To recap: the Twins stand to reap 9 WAR as a maximum, by signing Correa - go back and do the homework if you think it should be higher, I really don't think you'll come up with a sound argument.  The Twins' maximum risk is $105.3M.  We don't expect the latter to happen, but that's the risk.
Now, let's compare.  What if a deep-pockets team had gone ahead and instead given Correa a 10-year $325M contract like some were saying, and let's assume no opt-outs?  Let's do a quick version of the max risk/reward analysis for that - bear with me for one paragraph.  As before, the maximum risk on the contract is simple: $325M is on the line, win lose or Tommy John Surgery.  What's the maximum reward?  If we're allowing a chance at an MVP-like 9 WAR before, we need to do it again.  He might do that in any of the 10 years of the contract, but let's don't go crazy and think he does it every time.  Let's say 1 year of 9 WAR, and a 7 (a second monster year), a couple years of 5 WAR (still a huge asset), three more years of 3 WAR (above average), and then 1 WAR each of the other three years if he hits a steep decline or sprinkles in an injury-plagued season or two earlier in the sequence.  So really, I'm not talking absolute maximum after all, merely an optimistic outlook for a window of contention involving a great player.  Those 10 numbers, they all add up to 38 WAR.  A starry-eyed optimist could look at a potential future hall-of famer and come up with an argument for more, like 50 - meaning inner-circle HoF, which I can't honestly rule out for him at age 27 - he's less than halfway through his career and is more than halfway to HoF status IMO.  But let's go with 38. 
Estimated performance would likely be lower but remember, this is max risk and max reward.
So, put yourself in the Yankees' shoes.  Do you risk $105.3M for at most 8 WAR, like the Twins are doing?  Or do you say, **** that, I mean forget that, we're rich, and by tripling our risk, we can more than triple our potential reward.  Isn't that what smart money does?
So I think they, New York, say no to the smaller contract.  They have deep pockets, and won't risk significant money for modest maximum reward, when they could invest 3X as much in risk and really hit the jackpot.
Max risk and max reward are not the only analyses a team would make.  Not by a long shot.  Anticipated actual cost and estimated reward also are crucial.  Let's say 4 WAR for 2021 to reward the (very likely) $35.1M he gets from the Twins.  Compare that to maybe 30 WAR over a 10 year contract that costs $325M.  Now the dollars per WAR are much more favorable to the short contract - it is center-cut after all, an advantage not shared by the full 10-year cut of meat.
But likely outcomes aren't enough.  A front-office that didn't present a solid risk/reward analysis, which I have merely half-assed in this lengthy post, would be laughed out of the room by their higher-ups - if, that is, the higher-ups had an actual sense of humor and were in a forgiving mood and didn't fire them for lack of due diligence.
Bottom line, this is a mid-market contract, in my estimation.  The expected reward fits the expected price, but the risks are disproportionate.  A big team goes big.  No regrets for the Yankees.  This is the kind of deal the Twins have to embrace, but by no means did they "put one over on them" when they traded Donaldson to the Yanks to free up the cash to make this happen.  The Twins had to, in effect, buy Correa a $70.2M insurance policy, to get him to commit to just one year at $35.1M.  It probably adds $10M to the cost that the team's CPA has to factor in.
Thanks for your patience.  I welcome nit-picks, or bigger criticisms.
 
 
* Let's assume a small meteor, and like in Princess Bride he's only mostly dead, yet still slightly alive and expecting direct deposits at his bank to continue

The Minnesota Twins this year are in position to change MLB!!
 
For a team that has claimed a desire to contend in 2022 it has very little in the way of pitching, and has shown little to no interest in the FA agent crop of pitchers. SO how can a team with current starters slotted in as Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober?
 
Dylan Bundy has only thrown over 162 innings twice in his career and that was 2017-2018. and coming off seasons of 65 (Covid) and 90 innings. He cannot be counted on to take on a bunch of innings.
Joe Ryan has never thrown over 123 innings... ZERO in 2020 (covid) and just 92 between AAA & MLB last year. even a 50% increase is still less than 150 innings.
Bailey Ober never threw more than 80 innigns in any season prior to last year when he set a highwater mark of 92 innigns between minors and MLB. again another 50% increase get to only 150 innings.
So the three pitchers we have on our team assuming 32 starts per year will pitch les than 5 innings on average.
Our minor league pitching that is near MLB ready or MLB ready are...
Jordan Balazovic... 23...  coming off career high 97 innings
Jhoan Duran... 24... coming off injury  100IP in 2018 & 115 IP 2019 but 0 2020 and just 16 in 2021.
Simeon Woods Richardson... 21... innings max of 106 in 2019 with 0 in 2020 and 53 in 2021
Josh Winder... 25...  a respectable 125 IP in 2019 but again 0 in 2020 and 72 in 2021
Matt Canterino... 24... never more than 25 in his 3 seasons including 23 in 2021
Drew Strotman... 25... finally cracked 100 after never throwing more than 50 IP  with 112 in 2021.
 
SO... you see most of our prospects are at the age where they should be contributing to a MLB (usualyl 23, 24) this includes. Balazovic, Duran, Winder, Canterino, Strotman.
This all begs the question...  How do we get these guys to the big leagues before they are "too old" But yet not ONE indiviudally seems fully ready by if nothign else at least pitch/innings count to be a starting pitcher full time?
 
Sure, we can move a couple to the bullpen.  BUT on a team like the Twins, who love analytics, and seemingly never let their pitchers face a batter a third time, you will see the Twins go with 1, MAYBE 2 traditional starters (once we resign Pineda) and the rest will be piggy backed pitching "teams"
Twins will have 8 starters. with the #3, #4, #5 starters all pitching in the "buddy system" with each one going a max of 4 innings.  The theory being that if each starter can go 4 innings, then that leaves just 1 inning for the back of the bullpen to take care of, so as a result you do not need a ton of relievers. You just have your top 3 power arms in the bullpen.
So you have a pitching 13 man pitching staff of 8 starters, 3 back end relievers and 2 "wild cards" or specialists.
 
This is a move I HATE!!! but this WILL happen in 2022, and the sad thing as I want the Twins to succeed, then I have to want this to succeed, and if it does then in the copy cat league we have, more teams will do it and we will lose more and more of "traditional" ball.

I was just thinking about the Competitive Balance Tax in Baseball and the negotiations going on and was thinking about the concept that was proposed of a 100 million floor.  for a lot of small market teams that would be too high of a floor as it makes sense to dip down when doing a rebuild.  but the thought that crossed my mind is.... why does it have to be a solid floor?  I mean with the competitive balance tax on the top end of teams payrolls they have an escalating penalty each year they are above a limit.  
Shouldn't that work if teams drop below a certain limit as well?
I think a better current floor would be between 70 million and 80 million.  Drop below it once and receive a slap on the wrist 10% drop in revenue sharing revenue.  Do it 2 years in a row make it 40% drop in revenue sharing received and a competitive balance draft pick or have that pick drop a round.  do it 3 years in a row loos all revenue sharing designed to boost small market teams and lose all additional competitive draft picks designed to help low revenue teams.  I am sure the exact amounts can be negotiated.  But I would support a floor built the same way a ceiling has been installed so a team can't be brought down to the studs and receive lots of money....
This would also make tanking more interesting because how would you do it?  trading for bad contracts and prospects which teams would probably do.  This would help tanking teams get more prospects and get out of the cellar faster.  This would be a new wrinkle in the game and a benefit for the players.
Weigh in and tell us what you think about a wobbly floor?

Frustrated by Falvey and Levine’s approach the last two offseason and with the lockout in effect, I bought OOTP baseball for $4.99 in order to build the Twins my way using trades, free agent signings and keeping the up and coming pitching.
I set the trade slider a little more to the hard side the the easy side.

It seemed to carry over to free agent negotiations but I’m not sure. Prime example: I offered Byron Buxton basically the same deal the Twins signed him for and he came back and said, "I’m only entertaining serious offers"! It seemed he ignored the $8M per year for an MVP award and AB bonuses. He was so tough that to get him signed, I had to average over 20M yr. plus he wanted a 9 year deal. I got away with 8 but I had to have him.
When trying for free agents or making trades, I eschewed any player that I knew had been signed in real life or traded to a new team. I got messages along the way from Jim Pohlad and at one point, he said that I was having such a good offseason that he was raising my allowance from $203M budget (all expenses, not just payroll). At a budget of $203, the player payroll was $160M but he raised the budget to $210M and a player payroll of $170M. He must have seen quickly that I was going to be very aggressive striving to build a 2022 contender.
Some of the trades and signings saw me moving Max Kepler for Taijuan Walker.
Signing Jose Iglesias, attempting to sign Michael Pineda and Danny Duffy over extended negotiations (especially with Pineda) only to be spurned by both.
Trading Bailey Ober and Luis Arraez for Chris Bassit.
Releasing Dylan Bundy.
Signing Billy Hamilton to a very reasonable deal to be insurance for Byron Buxton.
Signing Carlos Rodon, which went surprisingly smoothly. Yes, I did offer him a fair contract.
Signing Ken Giles was exciting, knowing how it would solidify the bullpen.
The toughest one was attempting to sign Kris Bryant. I think he had me up to $173M and strung me along, then said the Cubs had a better offer. I ended up cutting it off but after a decent period of time passed, he came back and I was able to sign him at a bargain $15M yr for 5 yrs.
After spring training had ended, Johnny Cueto, having cut off negotiations, came back to me on the eve of the season opener and said he’d like to try again. I offered him more than he asked for 1 yr plus an option year and he signed in time for the season opener. After all the moves, I decided to promote Cole Sands to work out of the bullpen, a job he earned in OOTP baseball’s spring training.
Here are some graphics on your new, shiny, division contending 2022 Minnesota Twins!

In case anybody missed it, here’s the update, credit MLB Trade Rumors, on Danny Duffy’s status.
I would be strongly in favor of the Twins signing him to a 2 year deal, the first year at a minimum rate to pitch as a lefty out of the bullpen from sometime in July to the end of the season. Then a higher salary a/la Dylan Bundy in the second year for him to pitch out of the rotation.
And sign Michael Pineda for sure plus trade for a pitcher, possibly from Oakland. Jon Gray would be okay too.
With the pitching staff they’re going to have, they’ll have to beef up last year’s shaky offense. Castellanos would be be good and if both parties are amenable, Eddie Rosario would be my second choice. 

For as much as a buzzkill the Twins 2021 season was, Jorge Polanco gave many Twins fans a reason to watch. 
Breaking out in 2019, Polanco hit 22 HRs and drove in 79 RBI with a slash line of .295/.356/.485. Polanco scuffled during the 2020 covid shortened season but was also playing with an ankle injury that required offseason surgery and ultimately a shift to second base.
The ankle clean up and position switch seemed to have paid off as Polanco had a career season in 2021. Overall he finished the season with a .269 AVG and an OPS of .826. Oh, and 33 bombs + 98 RBI. That's good for a WAR of 4.8 according to baseballrefrence. 
One would think now would be a poor time for the Twins to move Jorge Polanco in a trade. The stacked free agent class includes Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, and Javier Baez. Teams looking for a shortstop or second basemen will have plenty of options to chose from.
But at what cost?
Carlos Correa and Corey Seager are 1A and 1B in the class. Both are expected to receive contracts upwards of 260 million. Trevor Story had a down year offensively, but still grades out as one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. He also is only 28 and teams will convince themselves he returns to form at the plate... 150-175 million sound right? Marcus Semien's fantastic 2021 campaign probably netted him a deal north of 115 million, as he was a top 5 hitter in baseball for much of the season. Javier Baez is a complete toss up for me. He is incredibly streaky at the plate, but got hot during his stint with the Mets and switched his approach at the plate. His ability to move around the diamond defensively and play a solid shortstop, second, and third is still a huge asset. You can't deny the flair and energy he brings to a team as well, star power means tickets... I'd guess a team buys in and pays close to 100 million.  While there are plenty of options teams can go on the open market, none will sign cheap. Aside from potentially Baez, you aren't bringing any of those players in for less than 100 mil, at the minimum. Fortunately, for the teams hesitant to commit that type of money, there is another option.
Jorge Polanco
**Before I'm slandered below for suggesting the Twins should trade their 2021 MVP, consider the facts.**
Contract - Jorge Polanco, currently 27, is signed through 2025 at what is essentially a 4 year 35.5 million dollar contract. When you stack that up against what the market is going to command for the available options, that deal is an absolute bargain. Internal Replacements -  Second Base is really a position of strength for the Twins. Luis Arraez, still only 24 and under team control until 2026, has a career .313 AVG and .374 OBP over 275 games .. Yes, you are missing out on the power, but baseballreference had his 2021 WAR at 3.4, so by no means is it a massive downgrade. He isn't arb. eligible until 2023 as well.. Nick Gordon or the crown jewel in the Berrios deal, Austin Martin, could also be guys that could step into the position at some point next year. State of The Organization - The Twins need to look at this an opportunity to try and expedite the rebuilding process. Reality is 2022 is going to be a lost year, regardless of whether Polanco is on the roster or not. Is 2023 the year? Who knows, a lot will need to go right for the Twins between now and then .. But at that point you've only lost value on a player that will have 2 years remaining on his steal of a contract.  If you are hesitant to put Polanco in the same tier as the players in this upcoming FA class, Since 2019, here's where Polanco stacks up against the top middle infielders. 

That's a 3 year sample size of productivity that puts him square in the discussion offensively as a top tier middle infielder. 
Yes I am aware that some players on the list were injured, but that's apart of the game. Polanco was too.
Who might be interested?
The best fit for Polanco would be an organization that is entering their window to compete for a championship. Given how cheap his contract is, teams would have the ability to sign free agent starting pitching, which typically works out better, than say giving a position player like Javy Baez a 5 year / 100 million dollar deal. That model seems to have paid off for the Astros as well as the Dodgers to some extent.
What teams fit that bill? I highly doubt an organization will trade for Polanco with intentions of playing him at short. So i'll highlight just teams with a second base need, There's a few, here are my favorite options.
The Mariners, who received a 0.3 WAR from the second base position this past year, would be a great trade partner for the Twins. They don't really have a solidified plan at 2nd and on the prospect side it's slim.  Ranked with Baseball Americas top farm system, they have plenty of intriguing pitching prospects to deal from. Emerson Hancock, Matt Brash, George Kirby, and Brandon Williamson all look to be be starters long-term.. (I believe Brash will be the best) .... What about Noelvi Marte? one can dream.
Miami has reportedly been getting pressure from ownership to win now and could be a possibility. This would mean they are comfortable moving Jazz Chisholm from 2nd to Short .. If they are, the Marlins hands down have the most pitching prospect depth to deal from in all of baseball. Max Meyer, Edward Cabrera, Eury Perez, and Jack Eder (though recovering from TJ) all could be in play ... (I'll take Perez of the 4 please).
If the Blue Jays prioritize Robbie Ray over Marcus Semien, count them in as a Polanco fit. Toronto is right in their go for it window and may lean toward having a proven veteran to replace the production rather than banking on a prospect. A package of Orlevis Martinez/Jordan Gorshans and Nate Pearson doesn't sound all too bad. 
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The Twins have a lot of work to do if they wanna get on back on track in the coming years.. This is all speculation, though I think it certainly is a route the Twins have to at least explore this winter. 
Regardless, of what you want the Twins to do with Polanco, there is no denying he would bring back a haul. That might be the best thing for the Twins sustaining long-term success.
*Also, don't check Baseballtradevalues.com for the prospects I mentioned. It rarely is correct, as most of us learned with the deals that occurred at the deadline. 

I have seen several overtures to Pineda wanting to stay in Minnesota.  That is a hard find in the market and with our need of several starting pitchers, we should take a good look at what it should take to resign the veteran.  Here is the article from MlbTraderumors.com I just saw which spurred this blog post.  Baldelli Hopes Pineda Will Return To Twins In 2022 - MLB Trade Rumors.  I would think its either a 1 or 2 year contract. Since we need money in the budget to sign others its probably in the 8-12 million base guarantee per season.  There should be incentives for IP.  The size of the guarantee will determine what the incentives should be.  I think that with incentives should be able to make in 13-15 million range if he hits 180 innings and that should max out his incentives as he likely will not reach 200 innings.So for my guess I will go with a 2 year 22 million contract with 500,000 incentives starting at 120 innings, 140 innings, 160 innings and 180 innings.  for a possible 13 million per season.  Do you think he will resign with the Twins and if so how much?

Some posters have suggested that Minnesota is the worst sports "city" in North America.
I did some googling and this was my first hit -- https://mikedropsports.com/ranking-12-saddest-sports-cities-in-north-america/  As you can see, there are many sad stories, but Minnesota is ranked as the saddest city.
Then I came across a site that rated Detroit #1 and Minnesota # 5 -- https://www.trainwrecksports.com/the-top-10-worst-sports-cities-in-america-1-5/
I think that the difference boils down to how much weight is given to making the playoffs versus winning championships.  It's been a long time since a Minnesota team won the championship in a major sport -- the 1991 Twins?  And during that time the Vikings, Timberwolves and Wild have been disappointing.  
All of that said, if there is such a thing as karma -- and I believe that there is -- the negative attitude of fans may be having some effect.  I wish that there was some way to change that.  Any ideas would be appreciated.
 
 

Some posters have suggested that Minnesota is the worst sports "city" in North America.
I did some googling and this was my first hit -- https://mikedropsports.com/ranking-12-saddest-sports-cities-in-north-america/  As you can see, there are many sad stories, but Minnesota is ranked as the saddest city.
Then I came across a site that rated Detroit #1 and Minnesota # 5 -- https://www.trainwrecksports.com/the-top-10-worst-sports-cities-in-america-1-5/
I think that the difference boils down to how much weight is given to making the playoffs versus winning championships.  It's been a long time since a Minnesota team won the championship in a major sport -- the 1991 Twins?  And during that time the Vikings, Timberwolves and Wild have been disappointing.  
All of that said, if there is such a thing as karma -- and I believe that there is -- the negative attitude of fans may be having some effect.  I wish that there was some way to change that.  Any ideas would be appreciated.
 
 

I really like the realignment idea assuming we're going to a universal DH. I made this a comment elsewhere but I also thought I'd also post this as a separate blog. Here's my proposal for realignment. I know it's fantasy but hey, it's the dog days of summer so why not? 
5 divisions, not 6. 12 teams in the playoffs, The top 2 in each division plus two remaining teams teams with best records make the playoffs so there is a reward for being a little better than average. Four best records get byes while the other 8 play 3 games series down to 4. Lots of playoff games; TV loves it. The remaining 8 teams (4 with byes plus 4 first round winners) re-seed by record, not location.  During the regular season you play all of the teams in three of the other four divisions 6 times each, 3 at home, 3 away.  That's 108 games (6 times 18 - 6 teams in each division). You play the remaining games in your division. You play 11 games each year against your 5 division opponents, except one only 10 times, for 54 games, total 162. Alternatively, add a game and rotate the unbalanced 81 home/82 away schedules in each division. You could rotate through the division the one team that you "only" play 10 times and you'll have to rotate each year which team gets the extra home game, 2 you get the extra, 2 your opponent, to balance the schedule.
Division are by location to create/enhance rivalries:
West Coast Division - San Diego, LA Angels, LA Dodgers, San Francisco, Oakland/Vegas, Seattle
Southwest/Rocky Mountain Division - Houston, Texas (Dallas), Arizona, Kansas City, St. Louis, Colorado (Denver)
Midwest Division -  Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Detroit, Pittsburg or Toronto (bummer that Twins are in a different time zone, but couldn't figure out a way to fix that)
Southeast Division -  Miami, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Washington, Cincinnati, Cleveland or Baltimore (depends on whether you want the Ohio or Beltway rivalry)
Northeast Division - Boston, NY Yankees, NY Mets, Philadelphia, Pittsburg or Toronto, Cleveland or Baltimore     
You rotate through the other divisions in the regular season. One year, the Twins play the Northeast, Southeast and Southwest, next year the Southeast, Southwest, West Coast, next year the Southwest, West Coast, Northeast, etc. That away the existing rivalries that are being broken up still play 6 games against each other 3 out of every 4 years like the Cubs and Cardinals. Those will fade over time; the Cubs new hated rival will be the White Sox, the Cards, the Royals.  
What do you guys think?