A Shortened MLB Season? Bring It On!

By Steven Buhr, July 2, 2020

It may be because I’ve spent years enjoying Class A Midwest League baseball, which routinely splits its season into two halves with every team’s record resetting to 0-0 by mid-to-late June, but I find myself embracing the plans for big leaguers to sprint through a 60-game Major League season in 2020.

I am not only embracing it, I’m excited about it!

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

In fact, the only thing tempering my enthusiasm is the concern we all (I would hope) have about potential COVID-related health issues for players, coaches and other people necessary to field teams and put on the games. I’m an unapologetic, mask-wearing believer in just how serious this pandemic is, and I’m concerned that we’re all moving way too fast to re-open everything.

I wasn’t in charge of deciding to try to have some kind of MLB season and if I had been, I’m not sure we all wouldn’t be throwing in the towel on 2020 and crossing our fingers while we hope to have some sort of normal 2021. But since the owners and players mutually decided to give this a shot, I’m trying to focus on what “is,” rather than what I personally think “should be.”

And what “is” is a season unlike anything any of us has ever seen Major League Baseball do. The old cliché is that baseball (at least at the Major League level) is a marathon, not a sprint. But when you slice 102 games off the normal 162-game schedule, that cliché goes into the scrapheap. Make no mistake, the 2020 MLB regular season will at least seem like a sprint to many of the people involved.

A lot of people, including some fans and writers I respect, maintain that a 60-game season is a farce – that mediocre teams (or worse) will find a way to slip into the postseason at the expense of good teams who simply have the misfortune of suffering too many losing streaks caused by injuries, illnesses and bad hops. And those people are right.

While it’s not like mediocre teams have never unexpectedly found themselves in the postseason or even winning a World Series (anyone remember the 1987 Twins?), the likelihood of pretenders crashing the postseason party at the expense of contenders this year is admitedly greater.

But I have an answer for that. I simply do not care.

I’ve watched the Cedar Rapids Kernels play what is essentially a pair of 70-game seasons every summer for years. And guess what… yes, getting hot or turning cold at some point makes a ton of difference, but I’ve never heard a single fan complain about it.

The minor leagues that play split seasons do so for a couple of reasons. First, rosters (particularly at the lower MiLB levels) see significant turnover as parent clubs move players up and down (and out of) the organizational ladder throughout the season, so the rosters teams finish the season with seldom closely resemble the Opening Day rosters.

But just as important (at least to the MiLB affiliate front offices trying to at least break even financially), it makes it more likely that every team in the league will at least be in contention for a postseason spot during much (if not most) of July and August, perhaps the two most important months in MiLB baseball in terms of retaining fan engagement.

So, in this bizarre summer, Major League Baseball is going to take a page out of the MiLB playbook and, as a result, fans in Kansas City and Detroit will be tuning in to watch their teams play ball in August in greater numbers than would have been likely in a normal season.

I fail to understand why that’s a bad thing. Is it because it’s possible the Yankees or Dodgers might have a bad stretch and not make the postseason? Cry me a river.

I realize that the team I’m a fan of, the Minnesota Twins, are now one of those teams that were built to compete over 162 games. They arguably have more depth than almost any other team in the American League and that advantage could be negated by the shortened regular season (though that pesky pandemic thing could certainly still make depth a critical factor).

If the Twins have one too many rough stretches and find themselves on the outside of the postseason looking in, so be it. They’re still almost certainly going to be playing meaningful baseball right to the wire, so I’ll be watching (and if you care enough about baseball that you’re reading this, I’d bet you will be watching, too).

Could MLB have played 100 games if owners and players had been able to come to an agreement sooner? Maybe. But even if they had, would that have made the season any more legitimate than what we’re dealing with now? There simply was no way that MLB was going to play anything close to a normal number of regular season games in 2020, so I’m not sure why anyone is even still complaining about the legitimacy issue. That issue is moot, so let’s move on.

The beat writers covering the American League Central Division teams for The Athletic posted a piece where they discussed each AL Central team’s outlook going into a 60-game season and those writers each made a compelling case for why fans in each of the five markets should have genuine interest in what transpires over the shortened season.

Even as a Twins fan, it got me excited about following the fortunes of the other four Divisional rivals, as well. (I admit, this may have been influenced some by Tigers beat writer Cody Stavenhagen answering the question “Is there a player on your team who could rise to prominence during this shortened season?” by suggesting we “keep an eye on” Niko Goodrum, one of my personal favorite Kernels alums.)

I’m not even worked up about the plans to use the minor league rule that places a runner on second base to start each extra inning. I didn’t like it when it was adopted for MiLB games, but I understood it was intended to reduce the chances that valuable young pitching arms would be over-worked in extended extra-inning games.

But that’s only part of why MLB is using it in 2020. Sure, it will reduce some wear and tear on relief pitching in a season where each team’s pool of potential roster replacements could be limited due to the minor league seasons being cancelled entirely.

More importantly though, it could help reduce the chances of players, coaches and other personnel contracting the COVID virus by keeping game times for extra-inning games to a minimum. It’s hard for me to object to that and it’s preferable to simply allowing games to end in a tie after nine innings.

If you are upset that a 60-game season just won’t be what a 162-game season would have been, you’re right. It won’t be.

But as a fan who typically watches a local minor league team essentially play two short seasons every summer, I can assure you that if you embrace it, a 60-game season has the potential to cram a lot of excitement into a couple of months of baseball.

And, by the way, if you want to do your part to make sure the players and coaches stay healthy, maybe consider wearing a mask whenever you’re out and about.

If we all do that, we can be more certain that the people we come into contact with who then come into contact with someone who comes into contact with a player or coach won’t pass something onto that guy that would keep him from getting through this season safe, healthy and productive.

We’ve never seen a MLB season like what’s happening in 2020 and, God willing, we will never see another one like it. I’m praying that all involved get through this season healthy and if prayer is your thing, too, please join me. If not, then… I dunno… cross your fingers and toes or something and just hope for the best.

A 60-game season is certainly not ideal. But it’s what we have. And it is has the potential to be very exciting. I’m embracing that and I hope you’ll eventually join me. It could be one heck of a ride.
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Making a 50-Game MLB Schedule Work

By Steven Buhr, June 6, 2020

Fifty games? In a Major League Baseball season? It's some kind of joke, right?

We wish it was, but in 2020, the year a pandemic threatened to scratch entire professional and college sports seasons, it's starting to feel like baseball fans will be lucky to get even a 50-game season.

I know. "Lucky" isn't how I really feel, either. But when you consider that we're almost certainly going to see zero minor league games in 2020, a 50-game MLB regular season, followed by an expanded post-season, is starting to look not so bad.

But how would you possibly put together a 50-game schedule that would result in anything resembling legitimate results?

Well, first of all, you need to immediately expand your usual standards for "legitimacy."

Let's face it, from the moment MLB sent players home from their spring training sites to wait out the pandemic crisis, there was never going to be a MLB season with even a trace of legitimacy to it. Individual and team records will mean nothing within any historical context.

This was never going to be anything but a glorified exhibition season, so let's just not get wrapped up in what can or can't be considered "legitimate."

Yes, it could have been MORE legitimate if MLB owners had been willing to play 100+ games. as the MLB Players Association proposed. But that would have meant the teams' owners would lose a few more dollars and we know that nobody parts with a nickel more reluctantly than MLB owners (unless it's to pay off lobbyists and politicians to get favorable treatment from Congress, but that's a totally different issue).

It looks like it will be something like a 50-game schedule or nothing at all. "Nothing at all" would be a black eye for both MLB and the players' union, so let's assume they'll eventually agree to the short season.

Admittedly, the two sides probably deserve that black eye, given that neither of them has shown any regard for baseball fans throughout this process. But there's a whole new round of negotiations over a new Collective Bargaining Agreement on the horizon in the next year, so there will be plenty of time and opportunities for both parties to demonstrate just how much of a (dang) they don't give about fans then.

Back to the topic du jour. How could they make a 50-game schedule work?

First, throw out the American and National League labels fans have gotten accustomed to. We're going to have a bunch of divisions based strictly on geography. This accomplishes a couple of things.

First, from a safety standpoint, it limits travel for teams. Let's not forget that the COVID situation is not yet resolved. You minimize travel and you minimize the circle of contacts the uniformed members of each team have with different opponents.

Then you only play teams in your division. Period.

Not only does this minimize contact with other groups of players until the playoffs begin, but it at least offers some level of legitimacy to the results on the field.

If you play 50 games against 15 or 20 different teams, you don't face any of those teams often enough to determine relative strength. But if you play all 50 games against just a few rivals, you stand a much better chance of at least crowning legitimate Division Champions.

How many teams in a division? Well, it obviously has to be an even number or you'd always have one team taking several consecutive days off. So we're talking about five 6-team divisions, which allows teams to play ten games against each of their five divisional rivals.

That may not be as many games as they would typically play against division rivals in a 162-game season, but it's a lot more than, say, major college teams play against one another, and conferences still seem to think that's enough to declare conference champions.

So, you play 50 games and then start the postseason. But what would the postseason look like?

Well, if the owners had their way, they'd probably forgo the regular season entirely and just throw together a 30-team tournament. The prorated salary agreement from March only applies to regular-season games. No regular-season means no prorated player salaries. Problem solved!

But those greedy ballplayers won't stand for that, will they? They're going to want to get paid.

Reports are that both sides would agree to an expanded playoff structure this year, so let's say it's 16 teams, which seems to be the most prevalent number you hear being tossed around. How do you get 16 teams from five divisions, especially when there have been absolutely no cross-divisional games?

It's not so hard, really.

Obviously, the five Division Champions go in. You'd probably even say the five Division runner-ups should all go into the postseason. So there are ten of the 16 teams.

I suppose you could say the six remaining teams with the best regular-season records should get the remaining spots, but how do you know a third place team in Division A, with a record a couple games above .500 is really better than the third place team in Division B, with a record a couple of games under .500, when you have no cross-divisional head-to-head games to base that opinion on?

So, I say we just add the five 3rd place finishers into the mix, giving us 15 teams. But who gets that final 16th spot?

Since I'm one of those people who actually LIKES the current system that forces two teams in each league to play a one-game, win-or-go-home wild card game every year, I'm going to suggest expanding the postseason field to 17 (or, potentially, more) teams. Of the remaining 15 teams, the two with the best record play a one-game play-in game. If there are ties for those spots, you play additional one-game play-in games to get to the play-in game. Just the way you can potentially have multiple "game 163" scenarios in a normal season. Let's start the postseason with some immediate drama!

Once we have 16 teams, we have the issue of seeding. Seemingly, the simplest thing to do is seed the teams 1-16 based on regular-season record. (1-15, really. The wild card play-in game winner would be the automatic 16th seed). Seeding of teams with identical records could be determined by:

1) assuring they don't play a team from their own division in the first round (no guarantees that might not happen in round 2, however), and
2) coin flip/draw straws/rock-paper-scissors/whatever. Not fair? So what. It's one freaking season that barely counts as a season anyway. Get over it.
So let's plug teams into these divisions and see how this might play out.

One Good Earthquake and We're in the Ocean Division: Seattle, San Francisco, Oakland, LA Angels, LA Dodgers, San Diego
Deserts, Mountains and Other Wastelands Division: Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Houston, St. Louis, Kansas City
We Think We're So Good We Don't Know Why They Let Anyone Else Play Division: NY Yankees, NY Mets, Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Toronto
Damn It's Cold Here Division: Minnesota, Milwaukee, Chi White Sox, Chi Cubs, Detroit, Cleveland
We Didn't Fit Anywhere Else Division: Cincinnati, Baltimore, Washington, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Miami

Could you make an argument for slightly different alignments? Absolutely. Do I want to hear your arguments? Not really.

Playing only 50 games, at six games per week, you only need a little over eight weeks to play your season. Kick things off Friday, July 10 and you can be finished with your regular season over Labor Day Weekend (just like the minor leagues do in any normal season).

With five divisions and only 50 games being played, you know you're going to have several very interesting series over the holiday. Then play your play-in game on Labor Day, itself. TV ratings, anyone?

So, 50 games later, we have standings that look like this:

Earthquake Division: 1-Dodgers 2-Oakland 3-Angels 4-San Diego 5-Seattle 6-San Francisco (Don't like these picks? I don't care)
Wastelands Division: 1-Houston 2-Arizona 3-St. Louis 4-Texas 5-Colorado 6-Kansas City (I still don't think Houston should even be allowed in the postseason, but that ship sailed)
Arrogant A-holes Division: 1-Philadelphia 2-Boston 3-Pittsburgh 5-Toronto 6-Mets (NYY in 4th?! Yeah. Screw the Yankees)
Ice Division: 1-Minnesota 2-Cleveland 3-Milwaukee 4-Cubs 5-White Sox 6-Detroit (Cubs in 4th? Yeah. See "Yankees" above. Same deal)
Leftovers Division: 1-Washington 2-Atlanta 3-Tampa Bay 4-Cincinnati 5-Baltimore 6-Miami (hey look, we found a way the Orioles might not finish in last place!)

We're going to say the Yankees and Cubs get the play-in game because, come on, who WOULDN'T want to hear the media and those two fan bases bitch forever about how they got screwed by having to play one game to get into the postseason?

We'll say the Cubs win. I'll admit this is possibly influenced by me not wanting there to be any chance the Twins have to face the Yankees in the postseason.

For the sake of brevity, we're just going to assume the 16 teams get seeded using a zig-zag process. Frankly, for this situation, it would probably make more sense than trying to analyze completely unrelated schedules to determine legitimate seeds, anyway.

So we end up with 1-Dodgers 2-Houston 3-Philadelphia 4-Minnesota 5-Washington 6-Atlanta 7-Cleveland 8-Boston 9-Arizona 10-Oakland 11-Angels 12-St. Louis 13-Pittsburgh 14-Milwaukee 15-Tampa Bay 16-Cubs

Feel better about seeing it in a (very informal) bracket? I'd love to show it to you, but I apparently can no longer upload my own pictures to go with my articles. So, you can either plug those seedings into one of the regions of that March Madness bracket you didn't get to use this spring or you can click this link to take you over to Knuckleballsblog.com where my informal bracket does show up.

With all of the teams set after Labor Day, we can kick off the postseason on, let's say, Wednesday, September 9. Let's allow 13 calendar days for each of the first couple of rounds, simply because you know the networks aren't going to want several games being played at once.

First round: September 9-22. Elite 8: September 24-October 7.

For the semi-finals and World Series, we can use the same schedule MLB uses for League Championships and World Series any other year. Start the semi-finals on a Friday and the World Series on a Tuesday (because that's how the networks want it, dammit).

That gives us the semi-final series from October 9-18. Which sets up the World Series beginning Tuesday, October 20-28. We are all finished before November 1. Easy-peasy.

Now, explain to me why you wouldn't watch these games. I know I would.
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Bet On It! Part 2

By Steven Buhr, January 31, 2020

A couple of weeks ago, in the aftermath of the Minnesota Twins signing free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson, I checked in with sportsbooks at William Hill and Elite to see what effect the addition of the Bringer of Rain was having on the oddsmakers' views of the Twins' chances of winning their Division, the American League Pennant and the World Series in 2020.

As it turned out, the bookies weren't exactly joining in Twins' fans euphoria. The odds had shifted very little or not at all.

As I wrote then, however, I decided to follow this throughout the rest of the offseason (maybe even into the season) and see whether things change. In addition, I also noticed a few other interesting lines as I perused the William Hill and Elite Sportsbook sites this morning.

First, let's take a look at what's happening with the Twins' odds for the 2020 season.

http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Jan-30-2-scaled.jpg

The long and short of it is that there isn't a lot of movement and the differences between the two sportsbooks are shrinking or even disappearing, in some cases.

The one bet where it still pays to shop around is with regard to Minnesota's odds to repeat as the American League Central Champions. At William Hill, the Twins' odds have moved from -175 to -160, so they're becoming bigger believers as time moves on. But if you want to put money on the Twins to win their Division, you still want to go to Elite to do it. They continue to list the Twins as an even-odds favorite to repeat. (A $100 bet on the Twins at William Hill will win you just $62.50 if they win the Central, where the same bet gets you $100 at Elite's 1-1 odds.)

William Hill has brought their odds on the Twins winning the AL Pennant and the World Series directly in line with Elite's line, which hasn't changed since we checked in a couple of weeks ago. William Hill has brought their projected regular season wins total back a half-win, to 91 1/2 wins, however. Elite is where you want to go if you want to bet the over on Twins wins, however. They're at 90 1/2 wins. I couldn't find where I checked what Elite had for Twins Total Wins a couple of weeks ago.

So, that's the story on the Twins. But let's move on and look at where else you might want to have some fun.

In the last article, I pointed out that, if you're inclined to throw you're money away, you could get much healthier odds on the Tigers and Royals to win the World Series at William Hill than at Elite. That's still the case. In fact, the odds against the projected AL Central doormats are getting even longer. At William Hill, the Royals have moved from 200-1 to 250-1, currently. Previously at 500-1, the Tigers (along with the Orioles) are now at 750-1. At Elite, the Royals and Tigers sit at 125-1.

But if you're really looking to flush your money down the toilet... I mean... if you're looking for a value-buy, check out the Orioles. At Elite, the Orioles get you a measly 100-1 odds. But at William Hill, they sit right there with the Tigers at 750-1! I mean, if you're going to throw $100 on a long shot, do you want to get ten grand when it pays off or would you prefer $75,000?

Silly talk right? Yeah, but I bet there's one member of my immediate family who, assuming he reads this, is sitting there right now thinking hard about that Orioles bet.

There are a couple of more realistic (relatively speaking, anyway) options to give some thought to, though, when you compare odds being offered at these two books.

The Red Sox are still sitting at 5-1 odds to win the American League on Elite, but you can get 12-1 on the same bet at William Hill. Have to say, 12-1 on a Boston AL Pennant is pretty tempting.

If you think the AL East is just too tough for the Red Sox to fight through, how about a team that's in a Division most people see as much easier to win? How are you feeling about Cleveland, for example? Yeah the Twins are loaded on offense, but Cleveland still has pitching and defense and that's what wins championships, right?

Again, stay away from Elite, where they offer just 7-1 odds. You can get twice that (14-1) on Cleveland to win the American League at William Hill.

You might start to think that William Hill is simply the place to go for better odds, right? Not always, no. You know the Angels have been making some pretty strong moves. Maybe you think the Astros will falter when they're forced to use trash cans just to collect trash. The Angels front office seems to think this is the year to go for it. What if they're right?

If you want to get on the Halos' bandwagon, you turn your attention away from William Hill (where they offer just 10-1 odds to win the AL Pennant) and give Elite your business, taking them up on their 17-1 offering for the same bet.

Believe it or not, though, they also play baseball in the National League! Let's take a peek over there.
People in Minnesota may not be aware of this, but the Chicago Cubs have a pretty big following (especially down here in Eastern Iowa). I know, there's no accounting for taste, but some people were just raised poorly and we shouldn't hold it against them.

Most of these people, you would think, learned a long, long time ago never to bet on the Cubs. But some of them, still drunk on finally winning it all a few years ago, might be optimistic enough to consider putting some money on the Cubbies in 2020. If that describes anyone you know, the place to go is William Hill, where you can get 12-1 odds on the Cubs winning the National League (vs. just 6-1 at Elite) and an even healthier 25-1 on a Cubs World Series Championship (compared to 12-1 at Elite).

Yes, that means you get the same return at William Hill for the Cubs "merely" winning the NL Pennant that Elite is requiring a Cubs World Series trophy to get.

Of course, if you want the longest odds on Cubs bets, you might want to wait a few days. Now that Kris Bryant lost his case and is under club control for the extra year, it's only a matter of time before he's traded, right? That should bump the odds up a bit.

I guess that's enough to ponder for today. Maybe we'll check back in about the time Spring Training is getting underway.
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Twins Moves Improve Postseason Chances? Bet On It!

By Steven Buhr, January 18, 2020

If you follow me on Twitter, you know I've been taking advantage of legalized sports betting in Iowa. Not many days go by between my comments or observations concerning the betting lines on the teams and sports that I tend to follow.

http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Elitesports-screen-3-e1579315630183.jpg

Naturally, that means I had to check out the shifts in what the oddsmakers set for the Minnesota Twins chances of success are in 2020 after the Twins front office signed Josh Donaldson to a hefty free agent contract. The signing has been widely seen as a signal to their fan base and any other interested parties that the Twins are serious about taking advantage of their current window of competitive opportunity.

Winning the American League Central Division title is nice, but with the strong core of talent on the Twins roster, you can't blame fans for wanting more. We want postseason success! Winning 101 games was terrific! Losing three straight games to the Yankees in the American League Division Series, not so much.

The signing of Donaldson to a contract far beyond anything the Twins have ever offered to a free agent before appears to indicate that the front office agrees.

So the question remains, does the addition of Donaldson, which allows the Twins to assemble what could arguably be considered the most dangerous offensive lineup in Major League Baseball, really improve the Twins' chances of winning an American League Pennant or, if we're allowed to dream, even their first World Series Championship since 1991? Or will it still take more (a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, perhaps) to significantly improve those chances?

There's no shortage of opinions on the subject out there. Here's the thing, though - all of those opinions are worth exactly what you pay for them. Nothing. In fact, if you are paying a subscription fee to read the analysis behind those opinions, they're worth even less than what you pay for them.

While I'm still a relative novice at the sports betting thing, here's something it didn't take me long to learn: The people who set the gambling odds know what they're doing. They don't let emotion and personal bias determine the betting lines they set... at least not their own emotions and personal biases. They will absolutely take into account the bettors' emotions and biases if they believe it means those bettors will let their emotions influence their bets.

Take the betting lines set for the Twins' 2020 season, for example.

First, don't let anyone tell you that the Twins aren't the favorites to repeat as champions of the American League Central Division. Yes, the White Sox have made some significant moves. Yes, Cleveland still has talent on their roster. That's nice, but the sportsbooks are having none of it.

I have accounts with Elites Sportsbook and William Hill and I've learned it does pay to shop around. That runs true with regard to the Twins in 2020, as well.

Both sportsbooks see the Twins as the favorite to win the AL Central. Elite sets the odds for the Twins at even (1/1). You bet $100 and you win $100 if they repeat as Division champions. At William Hill, the odds are just -175, which means if you bet $100 and they win the Division, you only make $57.15.

The difference seems to be how the two sportsbooks see Cleveland's chances of clawing their way back up past the Twins and how strong a challenge Chicago's capable of making. At Elite, they set Cleveland's odds at 6-5 and the upstart White Sox at 7-2. William Hill, however, sets both of the Twins' top Divisional competitors at 3-1.

By the way, if you're one of those bettors that like to bet the longshots, don't bother with Elite, who sets the Royals at 75-1 and the Tigers at 150-1. You want to go to William Hill where you can get 200-1 on your Royals money and a whopping 500-1 if you're willing to bet on former Twins manager's Detroit squad.

But let's start looking at the Donaldson effect. I never bothered to look at what the sportsbooks set for odds of the Twins winning their Division, because to me they were the obvious favorite and where's the challenge in betting on the favorite in a horse race?

A couple of weeks ago, I did see the over/under on Twins wins during the regular season at William Hill was 90 1/2 wins. Today, post-Donaldson signing, it's up to 92 wins. So you can still allow for some regression to the mean and yet make even money on the "over" bet. After all, the Twins didn't shell out all that money to just get an extra win and a half, right?

But let's face it, we all expect the Twins to repeat as Divisional champs. They're going to do fine over the course of 162 games, right?

With Donaldson in the fold, we're looking for more. We're looking to get to the World Series and once you're there, you might as well win it!

Will they still need starting pitching better than what they had against the Yankees in October? Yes. But the extra oomph the Twins get from Donaldson's bat and the improved defense he brings to the infield give the Twins some flexibility with regard to how and when they improve that rotation.

There's no longer a significant rush to get another top-end starting pitcher (or two). They can stand pat into spring training and see whether other teams' demands in terms of prospect returns come down. They can even arguably wait until mid season to see which teams fall out of contention and are ready to deal their aces for help rebuilding their systems. Waiting also gives Michael Pineda, Rich Hill and the bevy of young arms the Twins feel are ready to break out their chances to prove themselves worthy of "top starter" status.

Right now, I'm optimistic (perhaps unrealistically so) that the Twins will not enter the postseason short on starting pitching.

But that's me and my personal bias showing. What do the bookmakers think?

Before Donaldson, the Twins were a 12-1 shot to win the American League Pennant. Now, it's down to 11-1. That doesn't seem like the oddsmakers are all that impressed, does it? Still better than the 10-1 they offer at Elite, though.

That lack of Josh respect is nothing compared to what we see when we look at the Twins' shot at taking home the World Series trophy.

Back on November 1, the Twins were 20-1 shots to win the 2020 World Series at William Hill. Last week, still before Donaldson, those odds had risen to 22-1 at the same sportsbook. Now, with Donaldson in the fold... it's still 22-1 at William Hill. (It's 20-1 at Elite.)

Talk about no respect!

Of course, the thing we have to keep in mind is that the oddsmakers aren't making their decision strictly on what they feel a team's chances are. For them, it's all about getting money bet on both sides of the line so their bosses make money regardless of who wins. They're setting these lines where they feel they can get people to bet on both sides.

To me, they're telling us, "We don't think people who bet money on this stuff are convinced the Twins' chances of winning the AL Pennant are much improved with Donaldson... and their chances of winning the World Series aren't any better than they were before he signed."

Do you disagree? Are you amazed that not only are the Twins a bigger longshot to win the Series now than they were when last season ended, but that Donaldson doesn't move the needle in their direction at all?

Me, too.

But how strongly do you disagree? It's never been easier to put your money where your beliefs are. No, I'm not suggesting anyone mortgage their house and put the money on the Twins to get World Series rings. In fact, I'm usually not inclined to bet much money at all on teams I have a genuine rooting interest in. Emotion and gambling don't mix well.

But I have to admit, it just seems weird to me that the betting community, the oddsmakers and the gamblers, don't see Josh Donaldson's addition as improving the Twins' chances of finishing the season with some hardware. Does it make them a favorite for anything beyond winning the AL Central again, no. You still have to beat the Yankees at some point and that won't be easy.

But the argument that Donaldson makes that only slightly more likely... and not at all more likely to top whoever comes out of the National League in the World Series... just is a tough one for me to understand.

It's a tough betting line for me to ignore. In fact, I couldn't ignore it. I put a little something on the Twins at 20-1 back in November and I've added a bit more at 22-1. I also put a bit on the 12-1 odds to win the AL and I've added some to the "over" at 92 wins. I couldn't pull the trigger on 90 1/2 before Donaldson - I simply had little confidence that ownership would ever sign that kind of check - but I wish I had.

It will be interesting (to me, anyway) to follow these betting lines over the coming weeks to see if there's any sort of movement as we get closer to Opening Day, 2020.

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballblog.com)
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Minor League Pay - Some Progress At Last?

By Steven Buhr, March 17, 2019

When the Cedar Rapids Kernels host the Lansing Lugnuts in a three-game series beginning July 13 of this summer, Lugnuts players will have one significant advantage over their counterparts in the home team dugout.

They’ll be getting paid more than 50% more than the Kernels players.

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It doesn’t mean the Jays’ farm hands necessarily win every contest against the Kernels on the field, nor will they be swimming in riches on their paydays, certainly, but it’s a baby step in the right direction and players in every organization can only hope it’s a trend that spreads across affiliated minor league baseball.

According to a story by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Emily Waldon, Blue Jays executives told The Athletic that they are finalizing a plan to raise their minor leaguers’ pay by more than 50 percent across all levels from the Dominican Summer League through Triple A.

(The Athletic site has a paywall, but if there’s a single site that deserves your consideration for subscribing, it’s the Athletic, in my opinion.)

According to that article, Class A minimum salaries are rising from $1,100 to $1,160 per month this season, so players for Lansing, the Blue Jays’ Midwest League affiliate, will be north of $1,740, about $600 a month more than the Minnesota Twins are obligated to pay players assigned to Cedar Rapids.

Toronto vice president of baseball operations Ben Cherrington told The Athletic, “We hope that it allows our players to have the freedom and comfort to make some good choices, whether it’s where to live, where to eat, etc. We just feel like it’s consistent with our values of trying to be a player-centered organization and give them every resource possible to be at their best.”

We could debate whether $1,740 a month is enough money to provide much “freedom and comfort” but there’s no doubt it’s provides more of those things than $1,160 does.

Minor leaguers are not paid while attending spring training and extended spring training (MLB claims these are merely extended “try-outs”), receiving their meager pay only once assigned to an active minor league team’s roster.

A raise similar to what Toronto is offering would certainly benefit the Twins’ players in Cedar Rapids where players already benefit from a healthy and generous host-family program, which allows players to re-allocate money that would otherwise go toward rent.

Toronto’s move coincidentally (perhaps) came about roughly the same time that Waldon authored another article for which she interviewed over 30 people, many of them minor league players, concerning the plight of players trying to subsist on minor league pay.

The big question, now, is whether Toronto’s unilateral first volley on minor league pay will be answered by other MLB teams.

Certainly, there are 25 guys getting ready to fly to Cedar Rapids in April that hope so.
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Will Players Be Willing to Stand Up For Themselves?

By Steven Buhr, January 18, 2019

So much is being written and debated concerning MLB ownership’s unwillingness to spend on free agency, whether the big ticket guys like Machado and Harper, or more middle of the pack veterans.

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

The players’ union obviously got completely dominated in the last couple of rounds of negotiations over the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Limits on amatuer player signing bonuses, limits on international player bonuses and a completely ineffective policy on artificially restricting service time are all evidence of just how impotent the MLBPA has been.

Now, everyone talks about how baseball is broken, because clubs “tank” and justify it with fans as an effective way to “rebuild.”

But can anyone really expect things to change? Given the history of players failing to agree to act in a unified manner, can we really expect to see much change in the next round of CBA negotiations? In fact, it may already be too late for players to get their acts together by the time the current agreement expires following the 2021 season. Players can’t just wait until parties are sitting at the negotiating table. If they do, they’ve already lost.

There’s a terrific article by Michael Baumann over at The Ringer that describes just how difficult it will be for the players to make any progress in the next CBA and why a work stoppage might be their only recourse. He argues that players need to immediately start publicly calling out their ownerships for non-competititve practices. Putting their case in front of the fans, however, is just the start.

“But it’s not enough for players to win over the fans—they have to present a united front within the union as well. Whether deliberately or through extremely fortuitous coincidence, MLB teams have put financial solidarity above the desire to compete. But players are routinely encouraged to go above and beyond the strict call of duty in order to gain an edge over their competitors. Being the self-motivated, hypercompetitive folks that they are, athletes usually oblige, by accepting team-friendly contracts, putting in extra hours training, or agreeing to wear biometric monitors and trading privacy for a perceived competitive edge.”

Similarly, ESPN’s Buster Olney published a New Years Eve article (behind ESPN paywall) that disclosed content of a memo that Buster Posey’s agent, Jeff Berry, has been distributing that outlines some actions that players should consider taking to bring attention to the players’ issues and prepare themselves (and fans) for the upcoming labor battle.

Among the suggestions are what are known as “work to rule” actions, including:
Players refusing to report earlier for Spring Training than the contractually mandated day of February 23.
Players refusing to participate in non-contractually mandated team events such as fan fests.
Players and agents not attending MLB’s Winter Meetings.
Players boycotting MLB-owned media outlets, such as MLB.com and the MLB Network.

Berry’s memo also proposes that players take a page out of the front offices’ playbook, by funding, “a comprehensive study that analytically supports recommended guidelines for player usage for the stated purpose of maximizing health and performance, maintaining/improving tools and athleticism, and mitigating age- and usage-related decline. Basically, a reverse-engineering of the aging curves and usage rates that teams are currently weaponizing against the players.”

In other words, stop letting teams get all the benefit of statistical analysis, especially when the result includes practices detrimental to the players, such as the service time maninpulation that the Minnesota Twins did with Byron Buxton in September when they decided not to promote him, thereby assuring they would benefit from an extra year of his services before he becomes a free agent.

Berry argued that, “Front offices are praised as ‘smart’ when working within the rules to extract maximum performance value for minimal monetary cost. Shouldn’t players also be ‘smart’ and likewise make calculated decisions within the rules to maintain and extend their maximum performance levels at maximum monetary values?”

Obviously Berry and the authors of these articles are right. The only way the owners and front offices will discontinue the offending practices will be if they are forced to. And they won’t be forced to by the players politely asking for change at the negotiating table in 2021.

The question is, will players unify enough between now and then to take actions such as those being suggested?

Can you imagine your favorite Twins players staying away from Twins Fest? The established players already no longer participate in the Twins Caravan, but what happens to the caravans if NO players agree to participate?

Would minor league players also agree to stand with their MLB counterparts and not participate in Twins Fest and the Caravans… even though the union they’d be asked to support has done absolutely nothing to improve the plight of minor leaguers (in fact, often giving away concessions on minor league pay and bonuses in order to get more favorable terms for big league players)?

In the past, it has been almost impossible to get superstars making $20 million a year, veterans trying to get a couple extra million dollars and young players still under club control to agree on any unified strategy. They fight amonst themselves and, even when they can agree, they’ve failed miserably at getting the fans behind them. (Hard to imagine boycotting fan fests would help in that area unless, as Berry suggests, they get together to hold similar player-organized events.)

If players can’t – or won’t – do what’s necessary between now and 2021 to lay the groundwork for a more balanced negotiation with owners, it’s difficult to imagine the next CBA being anything significantly more competition-encouraging than the current version.

But if the players won’t do what’s obviously necessary to improve their situations, it will be hard to feel too sorry for them when they end up stuck with another half-decade or more of similarly one-sided business practices by owners.

The players have themselves to blame for the ownership practices they find offensive because they allowed their union to be steamrolled. If they allow it again, it will just reinforce how individually selfish and short-sighted they are and they’ll deserve exactly what they get.
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Miracle & Twins Extend Agreement Thru 2022

By Steven Buhr, September 16, 2018

With the closing of the minor league baseball season on the field, we open up the biennial minor league affiliation-swap season and, to nobody's surprise, the Twins have extended their affiliation with the Class High A Fort Myers Miracle.

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Teams are allowed to sign agreements for either two or four years and the Twins/Miracle extension will run through the 2022 season.

With the current governing agreement between Major League Baseball and Minor League Baseball (aka MiLB) scheduled to run only through 2020, not many affiliation agreements between MLB teams and their minor league partners have been renewed beyond 2020.

The Twins and Mriacle, however, have become the tenth partnership to be renewed through 2022.

The others are Salt Lake City (LAA-AAA), Tacoma (SEA-AAA), Altoona (PIT-AA), Mobile (LAA-AA), Trenton (NYY-AA), West Michigan (DET-A), Wisconsin (MIL-A), Eugene (CHC-Short A) and Vancouver (TOR-Short A).

Of course, there are also about 40 minor league teams that are now owned in whole or in part by their MLB parents, so those agreements are virtually locked in place in perpetuity, though those teams can (and sometimes do) change cities. For example, the Twins own their Rookie level club in Elizabethton, but that doesn't mean they couldn't elect to move that club's operation to another city.

The Twins are signed with their AAA affiliate in Rochester and their A affiliate in Cedar Rapids through 2020, but their AA agreement with the Chattanooga Lookouts expired with the end of the 2018 season.

The Twins have been in Chattanooga only four years, but the facilities there are widely known not to measure up to most newer modern AA level sites. The fact that the Twins and Lookouts did not sign an extension before the season came to a close indicates that one or both parties was interested in exploring other options.

If the Twins do want to look for a new host for their AA level club, their options are apparently limited.

The website BallparkDigest.com does a great job of keeping up with affiliate agreements and hosts a very helpful page where they keep tabls on the status of all MLB/MiLB affiliations. According to the Ballpark Digest list, only four other AA affiliation agreements have expired in 2018.

Those cities (and current MLB affiiliate) are Midland TX (OAK), Pensacola FL (CIN), Amarillo TX (SD) (moving from San Antonio) and Knoxville TN (CHC).

2020 could potentially see an avalanche of affiliation agreements expiring, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the Twins and Chattanooga decide to sign a two-year extension, but it certainly wouldn't be a shock to see the Twins announce a move to one of the other four locations, either.

Unrelated to anything having to do directly with the Twins is the interesting way that some minor league relocations are affecting the landscape.

Colorado Springs has been a long-time member of the AAA Pacific Coast League, but their ownership is moving the club to San Antonio, which had previously been home to a AA Texas League club.

The former AA San Antonio team is moving to Amarillo, where they will open a new $45+ million ballpark, which I have to believe the Twins (and others) would love to call home.

Colorado Springs, meanwhile, will have to settle for hosting a Rookie level short season club, relocating there from Helena MT.

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
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The Baddoo Philosophy: "Just Score Runs"

By Steven Buhr, August 20, 2018

Ask Akil Baddoo about his mentality as the Cedar Rapids Kernels’ leadoff hitter and the young centerfielder keeps it pretty simple. “Just score runs. That’s the goal and that’s how you win games.”

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Akil Baddoo (Photo by SD Buhr)

Of course, being a consistently productive leadoff hitter at any professional level, is really is a little more complicated than that.

“Just really getting on base,” Baddoo said in an interview late last week. “If I get a walk, I’ll be satisfied with a walk because I know I’ll turn a walk into a double when I end up stealing second base. I’m just trying to find a way to get into scoring position so my third hitter and fourth hitter, which we have studs in the third hole and the fourth hole, just can knock me in.”

You also won’t see Baddoo swinging at the first pitch often. His aversion to first-pitch cuts may not be quite as severe as the current leadoff hitter for the parent club Minnesota Twins, but at least in his first at-bat of the game, his approach does appear more than a little bit Joe Mauer-ish.

“I’m just seeing what the pitcher has, how his curveball is, what the fastball’s doing,” Baddoo explained. “Then, if I get a base hit, then that’s a good thing, it’s a positive. But mostly it’s like a sacrifice, I’m just trying to figure out what he has, so I’m prepared in my next at-bat and third at-bat and going on. Then I can translate that to my other players. I can tell them, ‘Hey the breaking ball is 12 and 6,’ or ‘it’s side-to-side and the fastball has a little run to it.’ That’s what I kind of do my first at-bat. And then, if I get a hit, that’s good, that’s positive. But I know what he has.”

Baddoo’s “just score runs” philosophy has translated to results on the field.

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Akil Baddoo (Photo by SD Buhr)

Through Sunday’s 3-2 win at Wisconsin, Baddoo had crossed the plate a team-high 77 times for the Kernels in 2018. That’s 25 more than any of his Kernels teammates and only two players in the Midwest League have scored more runs than Baddoo this season.

So how does a guy sporting a modest .238 batting average score so many runs?

“Akil is an athlete and a good baseball player,” Kernels hitting coach Brian Dinkelman explained. “ He goes through stretches where he’s really good and he goes through stretches where he has tough times. I think he’s still learning the game and learning himself, to be a consistent ballplayer all the time. But if you look at his numbers, I mean, double digits in homers, doubles, triples, stolen bases. So he can do a little bit of everything.”

Indeed, Baddoo’s 10 home runs tie him with Ben Rodriguez for third most among Kernels this season and since both of the guys ahead of them on the list are now playing for the Ft. Myers Miracle, you could say they are the active team co-leaders.

His 20 doubles also make him the “active” team leader in that category, tied with Alex Kirilloff and trailing only Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda – all three of which have been promoted to Ft. Myers.

Baddoo isn’t looking up at anyone on the triples list as his 10 three-baggers not only leads the Kernels, but the entire Midwest League.

He’s stolen 21 bases, good enough for second among Kernels this season, and he would look to be in position to claim the team lead soon as he trails the departed Lewis by a single stolen base.

And don’t forget the walks.

With 69 walks on the season, Baddoo leads his team and ranks fourth on the MWL leaderboard.

Not too bad for a guy that just celebrated his 20th birthday last week and is in his first year of full-season professional baseball.

Baddoo was a Lottery Round B (74th overall) draft selection by the Twins in 2016 out of Salem High School in Conyers, Georgia – about 20 miles east of Atlanta.

Unsurprisingly, perhaps, it took a while for a Georgia kid to adjust to the chilly Midwest as the season got underway, but as the weather warmed up, so did Baddoo.

After hitting just .196 in April, he nudged that average up to .240 in May and his .245 batting average in June was accompanied by an OPS of .820. He followed that up by hitting .280 in July, again with an OPS north of .800 for the month.

August has not been particularly kind to Baddoo, so it’s possible that the long season is catching up to him. His 105 games played is also a team-high number.

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Akil Baddoo (Photo by SD Buhr)

“He’s going through a little rough spell where he’s striking out a little bit more, missing pitches,” Dinkelman observed. “We’re getting late in the season. I don’t know if maybe he’s getting a little bit tired, he’s been playing a lot of games for us. I’m sure fatigue probably is a little bit of a factor. Hopefully, he can find some extra energy the last couple of weeks.”

Energy isn’t something the casual observer would ever think the dynamic Baddoo runs low on, but he’s also not all that concerned about his stat line.

“I don’t really go too much on stats,” he said. “I know some people do, but it’s mostly about development and I feel myself getting better defensively and offensively. I’ve drawn a lot of walks, I’m getting on base, I’m scoring runs. I’m stealing bases. That’s really the goal and that’s what I’m trying to accomplish. I’m satisfied with what I’m doing, so far.”

One thing we know for sure is that it’s not the Iowa summer, with temperatures through most of the past month running consistently in the upper 80s and into the 90s, that’s worn him down.

“Exactly like Georgia, I love this weather right now,” Baddoo said. “They told me that, too, they said, ‘Once it dies down and not cold anymore, it’s going to get hot and it’s perfect.’ And they were right. This is amazing. I love it. Great baseball weather!”

With just two weeks left in the Midwest League’s regular season, Baddoo said he’s looking forward to the drive toward the postseason, but doesn’t want to change his approach down the stretch.

“No, not really, just keep getting after it,” he said. “Just going 110% and that’s what I do. I continue to work hard.”

Under the MWL playoff format, teams that finish first and second in each of the league’s two division during the first half of the season already have postseason spots locked up, while the remaining 14 teams battle for the four second-half qualifying spots.

With two weeks left, the Kernels hold the top spot in the MWL West Division, but need to hold off at least two of Beloit (3 games back), Kane County (4 games back) and Wisconsin (6 games back) to earn a playoff spot.
Baddoo’s smile lights up when the subject of potential for postseason play is the topic and he likes his team’s chances of making a deep postseason run.

“Now we’re in a race. We’re in a race for the playoffs,” he said. “I kind of like it though. We have a great team, coaches that have prepared us for this moment and we’ve been playing great baseball lately.

“You’ve got to realize that the teams that qualified in the first half, some of those guys aren’t there.”

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Akil Baddoo with the stolen base (Photo by SD Buhr)

It’s the second straight season that Baddoo has been a part of a playoff contender, after playing for Appalachian League champion Elizabethton in 2017.

“E-town was great, I enjoyed E-town,” he said, smiling big. “We won it all, that was pretty cool.”

Of course, that’s a pretty familiar refrain to Cedar Rapids fans who have heard about Rookie level championship rosters before, only to see many of the same players fall short of a Midwest League title the following year. Cedar Rapids hasn’t won the MWL since 1992.

Baddoo hopes this is the year that trend changes.

“Maybe this year we’ll pull it off! We’re trying. We’ll try our best.”

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
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Dear Twins: Don't Sell!

By Steven Buhr, July 27, 2018

Like a lot of Twins fans, I think, I’ve been coasting a bit with my fandom. The results on the field have been disappointing.

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Byron Buxton (photo by SD Buhr)

Ervin Santana, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco hadn’t even been on the field much, if at all, during most of the first half of the season.

The expected two-team competition for the American League Central Division title quickly became no race at all, with Cleveland outpacing the pack.

So, I fell in line with the expectation that the Minnesota front office should and would be sellers at the July non-waiver trade deadline.

But a funny thing happens to me when I start to hear so many voices saying, “Sell!” in unison. I start looking for reasons to buy.

Yeah, my portfolio took a hit Thursday when Facebook shares dropped almost 20%. But I didn’t sell. I’m holding onto my Facebook stock. In fact, I’m probably going to add to my existing position after letting the dust settle for a few days.

I think that’s what the Twins should do, too.

No, I don’t mean they should invest in Facebook (though it wouldn’t be the worst investment the Twins have made over the years), I mean they should hold and maybe even buy.

When the chorus grew so loud in support of the Twins being a seller at the deadline that there was support for not only trading players with expiring contracts and/or little expectation that they’d be part of the 2019 roster, but also for sending Kyle Gibson and Ryan Pressly packing, I took a step back from the cliff.

If so many people were that convinced it was time to not only trade spare parts, but important 2019 cogs in the machinery, I wondered if maybe it’s time to do the opposite.

After all, a year ago, the front office gave up and started selling about this time (though it turned out they didn’t have a ton of guys that other teams were interested in buying). As we all know, the Twins overcame that lack of faith, forcing their way into the one-and-done AL Wild Card game.

But this is not 2017, obviously.

At the end of July a year ago, Minnesota trailed Cleveland by 6 ½ games in AL Central. This year, they trail by 7 after Thursday night’s win over Boston.

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Jorge Polanco (Photo by SD Buhr)

Last year, the Royals also stood between the Twins and the top of the Division. Not so this year. If Minnesota doesn’t mount a challenge, Cleveland will stroll to the Division title.

A year ago, not only were the Twins well off the pace being set by Cleveland, they were going the wrong direction. They had started the month of July three games above .500, tied for the second AL Wild Card spot and just two games behind the Indians in the Division race. They finished the month tied with Baltimore, 4 ½ games behind the Royals in the race for the second Wild Card and two games behind Seattle and Tampa.

Whatever momentum they had was moving them in the wrong direction so, of course, you sell.

But this is not 2017.

First of all, unlike a season ago, Minnesota will not be contending for an AL Wild Card spot.

A year ago, there was one very good AL team in Houston and a lot of mediocrity after that. This year, there are a pair of teams in the East and three in the West that are leaving pretty much everyone else, including the Twins (and Cleveland, for that matter), in the dust.

Entering July this season, the Twins at 35-44, were nine games under .500, eight games behind Cleveland in the standings and 15 ½ games back of the second WC spot.

That’s not ideal, I grant. They’ve gone 13-9 this month and only managed to trim one game off their deficit to the Division leaders. That being the case, nobody can be blamed for advocating that the Twins replace player surnames with “FOR SALE” on back of most players’ jerseys.

Unlike a year ago, however, Minnesota doesn’t need to claw their way through a crowded field in the hopes of earning a single play-in game at Yankee Stadium. They’re chasing one team and, if they should catch them, the reward is at least one full postseason series.

And, unlike a year ago, their momentum is moving them in the right direction, notwithstanding last weekend’s debacle in Kansas City.

The Twins also will face Cleveland ten times between now and the end of August. And it’s not like Minnesota has been beaten up by the Tribe this season, either. On the contrary. The Twins have won six of the nine games the two teams have completed this year.

Everyone seems to think this is the same Cleveland team that went to the World Series a couple years ago. It isn’t. Yes, they have three guys at the top of their batting order that are very good. You want to include Edwin Encarnacion, I’ll let you. But after that? Who are you really afraid of?

They have some pitching, yes. But that pitching hasn’t translated into as many wins in July as the Twins have notched and the Twins just added Ervin Santana, who didn’t look too rusty in his season debut this week.

Yes, the Minnesota front office could throw in the towel now. It appears that not a lot of fans would blame them. It has been a disappointing year, to this point.

They could get what they can for the guys with expiring contracts. Discard Lance Lynn, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Zach Duke, even Joe Mauer if he’s inclined to approve of a deal to a contender. Probably add Jake Odorizzi to the list if you’re not of a mind to offer him arbitration for 2019. Likewise, maybe get someone interested in Santana if you don’t think you’ll pick up his $14 million club option for 2019.

Make way for the next round of young talent that’s stewing in Rochester and Chattanooga. Let them get their feet wet in August and September, then be ready to re-engage the battle for AL Central supremacy in 2019.

But is this really what we’ve come to? Baseball seasons are just four months long? If you’re a few games out of the top spot in your Division at the end of July, you pack it in and, “wait ‘til next year?”

I’m sure the folks running Cleveland’s club are hoping that’s what the Twins will do. If so, they can virtually coast through the final two months and prepare for the postseason.

I get that trading some (or all) of those players would potentially add a few pretty decent young prospects. And if the Twins’ farm system was in dire straights without much talent in the pipeline, maybe I’d go along with a fire sale right now. But that is not the case.

The Twins have some really good talent at every level of their minor league organization right now. Sure, you always want more because some guys with high ceilings just don’t pan out, but as much as I enjoy watching minor league baseball, let’s not lose sight of the fact that the purpose in all of this is to win at the Major League level.

As things stand, the Twins have a rotation of Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Lynn and Odorizzi. It may not be the equal of Cleveland’s, but it ain’t bad.

If you think Fernando Romero, Aaron Slegers or Stephen Gonsalves would perform better in the fifth spot than Odorizzi, then make that move. But do it because you think it not only will make your team better in 2019 but will also improve their chances to catch and pass Cleveland this year.

Or, here’s a thought – if you think you could improve your rotation, maybe trade FOR a better pitcher (ideally, one with at least another year of control left after this season), rather than selling off the ones you’ve got.

And please, just stop the talk about trading Kyle Gibson already. This is not a rebuild. If you really have given up on 2018, fine, but don’t give up on 2019, too.

With all of the problems this organization has had finding really good starting pitching, why would you trade a guy just when it looks like he’s becoming a really good starting pitcher and still has a year of team control left?

Just because you could get somewhat better prospects in return? They’re still prospects and you’re probably just going to hope that one of them ends up developing into a pitcher as good as Gibson.

As a fan base, we’ve been lulled into this never-ending routine that emphasizes acquisition and development of quality minor league talent. That’s all well and good until it takes over the organization’s mentality to the extent that they let a few games’ deficit in the standings in July keep them from even bothering to try to compete through the rest of the season.

I say let’s go for it!

What are you afraid of? If it doesn't work out, you still have all the quality young talent waiting to fill in where needed next season and so much payroll money coming off the books that you won't be able to figure out how to spend it all.

If you don’t take advantage of those 10 head-to-head meetings with Cleveland, there are still likely to be waiver deals to be made before the end of August. No, the returns may not be as good as they would be right now, but I’m pretty satisfied with where the Twins’ farm system sits now. I don’t need more.

I don’t want my baseball season to keep being four months long. I want the full six months.

I want to see if Santana, Buxton and Sano can overcome their personal setbacks and help turn the Twins into the kind of team nobody wants to have to face in September.

I want to see if this team, that was supposed to be a contender, can get some traction and do something to make Cleveland sweat a little bit. Don’t just hand them the Division. Let’s make things interesting for them.

That’s what competing is all about, isn’t it?

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
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Happy Birthday Moneyball (and Damn You)

By Steven Buhr, June 18, 2018

Happy birthday, Moneyball!

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Yes, as Yahoo’s Jeff Passan alerted us via Twitter over breakfast this morning, Michael Lewis’ seminal baseball book, Moneyball, was released 15 years ago today.

I have to admit, I was picturing the entire SABR community simultaneously Skyping and toasting Lewis and his book, each member raising a glass of their favorite obscure local craft beer. It made me chuckle.

Moneyball’s birthday seems like a good day to discuss the state of baseball, today, given that Passan argues that the book, “set into motion the most significant changes in baseball since Jackie Robinson integrated the game in 1947.”

Wow, right?

So, let’s talk about the changes (and potential changes) to the game of baseball that we can could credit (blame?) Moneyball for.

Before we do that, though, a few personal recollections of Moneyball, the book.

I read it not too long after it came out. I didn’t rush out to buy it the day it was released or anything, but I’m pretty sure I read it within a few months of its release.

I enjoyed it. It didn’t cause an immediate seismic shift in my feelings concerning conventional baseball strategy, but I thought the points that A’s General Manager Billy Beane made were worth considering.

Sometime later, I remember reading that the film rights to the book had been purchased and I tried to imagine how anyone would be able to make a commercial movie out of a book about the application of statistical analysis to baseball. Yes, bringing Brad Pitt on to star as Beane would get a few fannies in the seats, but still.

It turned out my skepticism was well founded as Hollywood had some trouble coming up with a usable script. Then Aaron Sorkin (“The West Wing,” “SportsNight,” “A Few Good Men,” et al) was reported to be taking on the task of doing re-writing the teleplay. At that point, I knew I would have to see the movie, not because I’m much of a Pitt fan, but because I’m a huge Sorkin fan.

Sorkin managed to fictionalize the underlying story enough to make it be entertaining without losing the underlying point of the book, in my opinion, but I know some feel otherwise. Regardless, by the time the movie came out to critical acclaim in 2011, most MLB teams were already subscribing to most of Beane's philosophies, anyway.

Anyway, let’s get back to talking about changes to baseball that may be directly or indirectly traced to Moneyball and also a bit about what some see as inevitable future changes that we might as well blame Moneyball for, as well, while we’re at it.

Passan traces the current focus on “three true outcomes” to Moneyball, as well as defensive shifts, current bullpen usage and the significant spike in pitching velocity.

I’ll let you decide for yourselves whether Lewis’ book about Beane’s Oakland A’s is responsible for those and other changes. In truth the Moneyball reference is just something I’m using as a hook to get your attention (how's that for honesty?). I just want to talk about the changes themselves, whether they’re good or bad for the game and what, if anything, should be done about them.

I also want to bring in topics that Jayson Stark brought up in his piece at The Athletic last week, specifically, expansion and resulting realignment.

Look, I’m kind of old school. I’m one of those “fat old white men” that are responsible for everything wrong with baseball (and the country in general, I suppose) according to… well… seemingly everyone who ISN’T a fat old white man.

I’d have probably been perfectly happy if Major League Baseball still had the ten teams in each league that existed during my childhood in the 1960s. But I was fine with putting a team in Kansas City and thought their stadium was really cool the first time my family went to a game there. I still think so.

I was OK with the designated hitter rule. Maybe that was because it meant I got to see one of my boyhood heroes, Tony Oliva, extend his career a bit longer than his knees would have allowed had the Twins been required to find a defensive spot for him.

Divisional play and pre-World Series postseason games? Sure, no problem. After all, my Twins won the first couple of AL West titles in seasons that they would have otherwise had virtually no chance to prevent Baltimore from winning the pennant without a playoff system. Of course, they couldn’t prevent that outcome, anyway, as it turned out, but the Twins won SOMETHING anyway in 1969 and 1970,

I’d have probably appreciated that even more had I known it would be another 17 years before they’d do it again.

All of this is by way of pointing out that I have not been universally opposed to changes to the MLB game.

In fact, changes for the sake of making the game more competitive and to improve/broaden fan interest (aka “make more money”) is about as woven into the fabric of the game as any of the rules governing the game, so let’s just stop using “tradition” as an excuse for rejecting any and all suggestions concerning potential changes.

MLB has tried best-of-9 World Series. They’ve tried having two All-Star Games. Some changes worked better than others. Some changes took far too long to make (desegregation, for example).

So, let’s go down the list of changes Passan and Stark have written about and this one fat old white man will tell you what I think of each.

Defensive shifts: I’m pro shift. If you’ve got data, it would be stupid not to use it to prevent runs. I’m against adopting a rule requiring two infielders on each side of second base, but if baseball decides that’s what’s needed to bring more offense back into the game, I wouldn’t whine too loud about it.

I’d like to think, though, that hitters could and would make adjustments to beat the shifts, causing teams to shift less and, thus, correcting the trend over time.

That said, I’ve had people inside baseball that I respect tell me that making such an adjustment isn’t quite that simple. Maybe Wee Willie Keeler could, “keep my eyes clear and hit ‘em where they ain’t,” but it’s unlikely Keeler saw too many 95-100 mph fastballs in the 1890s.

I think if most fans had to step into the batters box to face a 95+ mph fastball, they’d wet themselves.

Hell, I wouldn’t want to try to CATCH a ball thrown at me that fast. Which is why I don’t often criticize a catcher who occasionally doesn’t get in position to block one of those throws that a pitcher doesn’t deliver on a straight line to the catcher’s mitt.

Pitching: Just a few years ago, I was talking to a couple of Twins pitching prospects who had spent time with the Cedar Rapids Kernels and I mentioned something about the scoreboard pitch speed indicator not working. One of them chuckled a little at the reference to what he somewhat derisively termed the “talent meter.”

That conversation took place at a time when pitch “velo” was starting to generate a lot of discussion.

Now, as Passan cites, the average fastball velocity in the big leagues has risen from 88.9 mph in 2003, when Moneyball was released, to 92.2 mph today.

If the young pitching coming through Cedar Rapids is any indication, that trend is not going to be reversing any time soon. It seems very rare to see any pitcher – starter or bullpen arm – who isn’t hitting at least 92 mph on that “talent meter.”

I was a pitcher (well, as long as my high school coach isn’t likely to read this, I’m going to continue claiming that, anyway), so I’ve tended to side with pitchers in just about any pitcher vs. hitter debate. But we are soon going to be watching games where the average fastball is going to be nearing 95 mph.

You can’t tell me that pitch velocity alone isn’t largely responsible for less hitting and, thus, the proliferation of the three true outcomes – a strikeout, a walk or a home run (if you DO get your bat on one of those things squarely, it’s likely to travel some distance).

That gets us to…

Pace of Play: The “three true outcomes” thing is what’s slowing the game down. Not much you can say will change my opinion of that. Two of those three outcomes take a long time to accomplish and can get pretty tedious. That is not good for baseball.

Changing the rules to require just three balls for a walk and two strikes for a strikeout would speed things up, but would just get to those two potential boring outcomes faster. Likewise, changing the rules to make the strike zone bigger or smaller would also just get to one of those outcomes sooner. No thanks.

No, the increase in velocity has shifted the advantage to the pitcher too far. We need something to bring more doubles and triples into the game.

Here’s what I think: Let’s move the rubber back a foot. Maybe it would only take six inches. I dunno. Someone smarter than me could figure out the right distance. But give the hitters just a little more time for their brains to send the communication to their bodies concerning whether or not to swing.

Right now, hitters are just guessing. I was taught by my coach-father to read the spin on the ball, identify the pitch, then make the decision concerning whether to swing or not.

There is no way a human can take the time to do that on a 95 mph fastball. They have no choice but to guess.

But 60 ‘ 6” is what the distance has always been! We can’t change that!

Of course we can. Baseball lowered the mound in the 60s. Why? Because the then-current-height gave pitchers too much of an advantage and hardly anyone was able to hit .300. Sound familiar?

Personally, I think it’s the one rule change that could get more action back into the game while minimizing all other aspects of the game. Just do it, already.

Umpiring: Implement the technology to call balls and strikes electronically. I’ve had it with strike zones that change from umpire to umpire, from pitcher to pitcher and even based on count. (Take a look at the differences between what’s called a strike on 0-2 counts vs. 3-0 counts. It’s absurd and there is NO justifiable reason for it.)

We’ve given the umpires and their union long enough to get it right. Maybe it comes back to the velocity thing, again. It’s tough to accurately judge where today’s fastballs are crossing the plate. Fine, but that’s an argument for using technology, not for defending an outmoded system.

When the game was invented, the best technology available to determine a strike from a ball might have been to put a guy behind the catcher to make that call. That is no longer the case. Make every pitcher and every hitter use the same strike zone.

Expansion and realignment: It’s hard to believe that, in less than two decades, we’ve gone from Bud Selig pushing contraction to Rob Manfred strongly considering expansion.

I’m not really convinced there are two more communities in North America that would successfully support a MLB franchise. I’ve looked at Stark’s list of potential cities and I’m not optimistic about any of them. They are:

Portland
Charlotte
Nashville
Montreal
San Antonio/Austin
Las Vegas
Mexico City

Frankly, I find more reasons why teams might NOT succeed in each of those locations than why they would, but if baseball becomes convinced, I would say, “go for it.”

32 teams are better than 30. It just is. The scheduling issue alone makes this true.

I kind of liked inter-league scheduling when it was first introduced. Now, not so much. There’s just no way to make scheduling a handful of inter-league games fair for everyone. It screws up competitive balance and that’s not a good thing.

Stark writes that eventually we’ll see an alignment based on geography. Well, maybe most of us fat old white men will be dead by then, but our kids will see it.

I’m good with that. Adopt the designated hitter across the board and give us eight four-team divisions (four divisions in each league).

Stark throws out a couple of possible scenarios for realignment. There are problems with both, but they’re starting points.

One has the Twins with the Cubs, White Sox and Brewers. The other, which tries to largely keep the current AL and NL intact, lumps Minnesota with the Tigers, White Sox and Indians. Not ideal, perhaps, but I understand they can’t build a system with, “what is best for Twins fans?” as it’s starting point, so I wouldn’t get bent out of shape with either alignment.

In the end, here’s where I come down:

I would love for some of my grandkids and their kids to love baseball as much as I do. Whatever it takes to make that happen, I’ll try to be open to.

If some of the changes are hard to swallow, I’ll simply do what I always do – blame someone else.

Damn you, Moneyball. (See how easy that is?)

(This article was originally published at Knuckleballsblog.com.)
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Talking Hitting With "Dink"

By Steven Buhr, May 31, 2018

When Brian Dinkelman hung up his spikes as a player after the 2013 season, a defensive shift with three infielders on one side of second base was still a relative novelty being employed occasionally by the Houston Astros and perhaps one or two other teams at the Major League level.

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Brian Dinkelman talks hitting with Royce Lewis during batting practice. (Photo: SD Buhr)

Less than five years later, “Dink” is in his third season as the Cedar Rapids Kernels’ hitting coach and he and Kernels manager Toby Gardenhire are seeing the infield shift deployed several times on a nightly basis – both against their team’s hitters and by their own infielders.

The times, they are a changin’.

Any regular observer at Class A Midwest League games would likely tell you that the Quad Cities River Bandits probably employ shifts more than any other team in the league. It’s not a coincidence that Quad Cities is the Class A affiliate of the Astros.

The Seattle Mariners’ MWL affiliate, the Clinton Lumber Kings, on the other hand, play a comparatively normal infield alignment against virtually every opposing hitter.

The Kernels fall somewhere in the middle of those extremes, but the shift is something that has clearly been an increasingly apparent part of their defensive strategy over the course of Dinkelman’s tenure as the club’s hitting coach.

And that’s fine with him.

“I don’t think it’s a bad thing for baseball.” Dinkelman said in an interview during his club’s latest homestand, “Because teams are studying other teams and they’re playing the chances of where they think the hitter’s going to hit the ball, where his tendency to hit the ball is. Now, if that gives your team an advantage to play your players in that sort of position, then I’m all for it, because you’re looking for any advantage for your team to be better than the other team.”

It may just be part of the natural cycle of teams trying to find the best way to win a baseball game, but infield shifts certainly have given hitting coaches like Dinkelman one more thing to think about as they help the next generation of position players to achieve their big league dreams.

So far, though, it’s not causing a dramatic change in how he and the Twins are teaching the art of hitting a baseball.

“We’ve addressed it a little bit,” he said. “I don’t think we’re going to change the way that we approach it or our swing, to try to hit around the shift. Some guys just are not able to do that with their swing. I’d rather have a guy who can hit the ball hard and hit it right through the shift. Because if you hit the ball hard enough, you’re still going to be able to hit the ball through the shift, for the most part, most of the time.”

Lou Boudreau, as the manager of the Cleveland Indians, famously implemented the infield shift to try to contain Red Sox Hall of Fame slugger Ted Williams, but even Boudreau admitted later that his hope was that the shift would get into Williams’ head.

Whether or not that strategy worked against Williams is open to debate, but Dinkelman indicated that, as they’ve begun implementing the shift themselves, the Kernels have seen evidence that the mental aspect of facing the shift can’t be discounted.

“Where guys fall in trouble, and we’ve seen it even here at this level, is whenever they see a shift on, guys try to manipulate their swing to try to hit it where the guys aren’t and they end up making just weak contact or swinging and missing.

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Brian Dinkelman and Toby Gardenhire (Photo by SD Buhr)

“Toby and I talked about that. You see (an opposing hitter) swing and he’s trying to shoot it the other way because he sees that everybody’s on (the other side of the infield) and that’s just not part of his swing and he can’t do that. So that’s kind of an advantage for us because he’s taking a swing that he doesn’t want to take.”

If that’s the case, would it make sense then to coach players to make that kind of swing a regular part of their game, in order to beat the shift? Are we on the verge of returning to the days where every hitter is coached to, “use the whole field?”

Not necessarily, but some attempt to broaden a player’s range is only logical, given the current defensive trends.

“There are still guys that use the whole field and there are still a handful of guys who are more one side of the field oriented,” Dinkelman explained. “If we can work on them to try to get them to use, say even the middle of the field, so it doesn’t have to just be all pull side. If they use the middle of the field, then their shift that (opponents are) playing against them won’t be as extreme and it’ll still open up a few more holes in the infield.”

And what about bunting? Bunting has become a favorite target for ridicule from some of the more ardent supporters of more statistical metrics-based strategies who argue that giving up an out almost never improves a team’s chances of scoring runs.

But would bunting more, especially into an almost open side of the infield, make bunting once again become a more important skill?

“I think it is,” Dinkelman agreed. “I think that bunting still needs to be used if it’s the right situation in the game. If a guy’s leading off an inning and you need a baserunner or two and they’re playing a shift on you, giving you the whole left side of the infield for a bunt, I’m all for that. Because if you start bunting, they’re going to have to make an adjustment (to their shift) if you keep getting hit after hit.”

It’s not a strategy that they’re going to encourage every hitter to employ, however.

“Now, if you’ve got a guy who is a complete home run threat, then I’ll probably want to let him go ahead and swing the bat. Because if he hits a home run, that’s one run for us, where if he bunts and just gets a single, it may not do us a whole lot of good.

“I think it depends on the player, but I think the bunt is still part of the game, if that’s part of your game, a way to get on base to help produce offense for our team, then I’m all for it.”

This season, the Twins have entrusted millions of dollars’ worth of highly regarded young hitting prospects, including successive first round picks Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, to Dinkelman’s tutelage.

While Lewis, Kirilloff and infielder Jordan Gore have been producing at the plate with batting averages staying above .300 and only rare and short periods of anything that could be considered close to a slump, many of the other hitters in the lineup have been slower to come around.

After the Kernels’ 16-hit onslaught in their 15-4 win over Wisconsin on Wednesday, Cedar Rapids sports the fourth highest team batting average in the league. But taking away the stats of Lewis, Kirilloff and Gore, you’re left with a team batting average of just .234.

Granted, if you take away three .300+ stat lines from any team, the remaining team BA isn’t likely to be terribly strong.

Regardless, however, Dinkelman remains bullish on the rest of his offensive unit.
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Brian Dinkelman (Photo by SD Buhr)

“They’re all making progress, they’re all learning the game,” he said.

“The thing with our roster is we’re so young. We work on things, work on approach and set up, stuff like that. Try to help get them through a daily routine of being a professional baseball player. But they’re coming along nicely.”

Nine of the 13 position players on the Cedar Rapids roster are 21 years old or younger and, even after Jacob Pearson’s 20th birthday party on June 1, three will still be teenagers.

These guys weren’t facing 94 mph fastballs and 86 mph sliders from every pitcher who stepped out of an opponent’s bullpen before they put on a Kernels’ uniform for the first time. But that’s what they’re getting accustomed to seeing in today’s Midwest League.

“These guys are new to this league or to pro baseball, so it takes a little bit of adjustment to get used to it, but they’re coming along,” Dinkelman said. “We’re about two months in now, so I think they’re starting to get the feel or understanding of a daily routine and what they’re going to face daily from the opposing team.

“It’s not always about the numbers right now at this level, it’s more about your mindset and making progress and building that routine so as the season goes along or as the seasons go on, you have that to fall back on.”
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Kernels: Will Offense Suffer As Prospects Move Up?

By Steven Buhr, May 23, 2018

When this season was in its infancy, I had a lot of high expectations for the 2018 Cedar Rapids Kernels. I was not alone, of course, since the Kernels’ opening day roster was filled with big-bonus position players, highlighted by 2017’s first-overall draft pick, Royce Lewis, and the Twins’ 2016 first round pick, Alex Kirilloff.
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Royce Lewis (Photo by SD Buhr)

Unlike some, though, I was freely effusive with my high expectations. I told more than one person that I felt the 2018 roster had the potential to be every bit as good as, if not better than, the Kernels’ class of 2013 that included Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler and a number of other very talented position players.

With Cedar Rapids sitting in fiftth place in the Midwest League’s Western Division last week, one of the people who had heard me express my early season optimism approached me during what was turning out to be a lopsided loss to Quad Cities and, in so many words, asked me, “what happened?”

It’s a fair question and I think I may have even surprised myself with my answer. I said I still believe what I said at the outset about this roster is true. There’s a lot of talent on the Cedar Rapids roster.

Like their big-league parent club, the Kernels have been treading water at or near the .500 mark. On the surface, that would seem inconsistent with having something I would have referred to (and did refer to) as a “loaded roster” to start the season.

Having two first round picks should be enough to keep just about any Class A roster at or above the .500 mark and that’s pretty much what Lewis and Kirilloff have done. After Wednesday’s win over Kane County, the Kernels’ record stands at 21 wins and 20 losses, good enough for fourth place in their Division, a game and a half behind Clinton, Peoria and Quad Cities, who are in a virtual three-way tie for the Division lead with about a month left in the season’s first half.

Under MWL rules, the top two teams in each division at the end of the first half of the season automatically qualify for the postseason, so the Kernels have just over four w
eeks to pass at least two of the teams ahead of them in the standings to clinch one of those automatic playoff spots.

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Alex Kirilloff (Photo by SD Buhr)

With Kirilloff and Lewis both hitting above .300, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to hear that one or both is being promoted to the Ft. Myers Miracle at any time. If and when those promotions occur, the Kernels’ chances of qualifying for the postseason would obviously take a serious hit.

The two first-rounders have accounted for a disproportionate amount of Cedar Rapids’ offense. If you remove their hits and at-bats from the club’s totals, the Kernels would have a .231 team batting average, which would be just two points above the Great Lakes Loons, who currently rank 16th among the 16 MWL members in team batting average.

Seven of the 12 current position players on the roster have batting averages below .234 and seven have an OPS below .700. Two players are hitting below .200 and have an OPS below .500.

So why would I remain bullish about the 2018 Kernels?

One of the by-products of having a roster of position players that have gotten off to a slow start is that not too many of them are going to be promoted to the next level any time soon. Outside of Kirilloff and Lewis, it’s hard to identify anyone among the current position players that one could honestly say has earned himself a shot at the next level.

And most of these guys are still very young.

Lewis is still 18 for a couple more weeks and Kirilloff is just 20, but they aren’t the only hitters still unable to legally buy a beer around here.

Catcher Ben Rortvedt and outfielder Jean Carlos Arias are each just 20 years old while infielder Jose Miranda and outfielder Akil Baddoo (recently placed on the Disabled List) are just 19. Newly arrived outfielder Jacob Pearson is also still 19, though just until his June 1 birthday.

Trey Cabbage, David Banuelos and Shane Carrier come in right at 21 years old.

Among the club’s position players, only Andrew Bechtold (22), Ben Rodriguez (23) and Jordan Gore (23) would likely be considered above the average age for this league.

And here’s the thing about MiLB leagues that split their seasons into two halves – often the teams that finish the season the strongest are those that have young talent that start slow enough that they don’t get promoted, leading to less than average turnover in their ranks. Those players often develop into a competitive unit by the end of the summer.

The Twins have a lot of bonus money tied up in this unit of position players and it would seem unlikely that they would release or demote a 19 or 20 year old ballplayer that they’ve invested heavily in just because he’s gotten off to a slow start in Cedar Rapids.

A year ago, the Twins sent 23 different position players to Cedar Rapids during the course of the season. Thus far, among the team's hitters, only the 12 current position players plus Akil Baddoo (now on the Disabled List) and previously promoted outfielder Mark Contreras have suited up for Cedar Rapids.

It’s not difficult for me to envision a scenario where, even should Lewis and Kirilloff get their promotions, the rest of the current group of position players is largely left intact to develop together through most of the rest of the season.
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Jordan Gore (Photo by SD Buhr)

Yes, it would have been a bonus to have Wander Javier in line to replace a promoted Lewis, but his season-ending labrum surgery means that won’t be happening. (Javier will still just be 20 years old when he likely makes his Kernels debut in 2019.)

Players that demonstrate they’re ready for new challenges get promoted. That’s what minor league ball is all about. Fans in Cedar Rapids have had a rare opportunity to watch two of the most promising young prospects in the Twins’ system play for the Kernels this spring and those players have certainly not disappointed. The result is that one or both could be promoted to the next level at any time.

While the rest of the everyday lineup have not been as productive with the bat as Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff so far, several of them have been picking up the offensive pace.

Jordan Gore has hit .371 in his last 10 games, Jean Carlos Arias his hit .324 over his most recent 10, Jose Miranda has hit .294 over the same stretch, while Akil Baddoo, Ben Rortvedt and Trey Cabbage have each hit .250 or better in their last 10 games for Cedar Rapids.

The “new guy,” Jacob Pearson, even had a pair of hits in his first game as a Kernel on Wednesday.

Minor league baseball is what it is, and that means players will come and go. But this group of Kernels hitters is not just a two-man unit. The lineup has offensive talent up and down the batting order and I think we’ll continue to see plenty of runs scored by the home team at Veterans Memorial Stadium this summer.

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
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Rortvedt's MWL Encore Is Off To Strong Start

By Steven Buhr, April 24, 2018

What a difference a year makes.
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Ben Rortvedt (Photo: SD Buhr)

A year ago, Ben Rortvedt was getting his first taste of full-season minor league baseball after having been drafted out of high school in the second round of the 2016 amateur draft by the Minnesota Twins.

Things did not go well for the young catcher from Verona, Wisconsin. Through April, he was hitting only .096 with an OPS of just .229.

This spring, it was obviously important for the young catcher to get off on the right foot in 2018 and put that 2017 start well behind him.

Just 19 years old when he opened his first year of full-season minor league ball last season, Rortvedt admits he wasn’t used to dealing with the sorts of struggles he encountered a year ago.

“Yeah, last year did not go my way at all and I truly wasn’t used to that,” he recalled. “Since I started slow, I didn’t really know how to handle that. It was kind of rough for the first month or so. I tried to dig out of it and it was really kind of hard for me. I tried to change a lot of things.”

While he recovered over the second half of the season to hit right at .280 over the course of June, July and August, he decided this past offseason to go back to what he was familiar with, an approach he described as, “just simplifying everything and seeing the ball. That’s what I did going into spring training.”

Whatever he did, it seems to be working.

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Ben Rortvedt (Photo : SD Buhr)

Despite a 1 for 11 stretch at the plate in his last three games going into Tuesday night, Rortvedt is still hitting .321 with an OPS of .773.

He can feel the difference, too.

“I feel really good,” he said. “I’m really comfortable with the league. I know what it’s about. I’ve been seeing the ball well and finding the barrel. “

His manager, Toby Gardenhire, can see the difference, too.

“There’s a reason they put guys in the minor leagues and they have them develop and they work them up through the system,” Gardnehire said. “It’s amazing what a year in a place like this will do. He comes back and he’s a totally different guy. He’s more confident now. He knows what to expect. He knows how to go about his day-to-day business a lot better than he did last year. He’s putting in the work and he’s having results.”

Gardenhire has noticed more than just greater experience, though. He’s seeing a level of self-confidence in
Rortvedt that wasn’t there a year ago.

“It’s a confidence thing. If you go up to the plate and you don’t know what to expect from yourself and you’re just trying to make contact and you’re hoping that you do well, that doesn’t usually go very well,” the manager pointed out. “But when you’re going up there and you have a plan because you’ve been there and done it a little bit, then it changes your whole mentality and that’s what Ben’s doing right now.

“He’s got kind of a chip on his shoulder where he wants to go up there and be the guy. Last year, he kind of questioned himself a little bit, but this year I don’t see a whole lot of questioning himself in him.”
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Ben Rortvedt (Photo: SD Buhr)

Hitting is a good thing, of course, especially for a guy drafted as high as what Rortvedt was. But, as a catcher, what he does behind the plate is equally important, if not more so.

That’s an area where he’s making some adjustments to his game, as well.

For the first time since he joined the organization, the Twins have hired a Catching Coordinator to work with their minor league backstops. Tanner Swanson joined the organization in that capacity and Rortvedt couldn’t be happier about it.

“It was kind of frustrating not having someone to talk to about catching,” Rortvedt said, adding that Swanson’s arrival has changed that. “He’s very hands on, a very approachable guy.”

It has meant, however, that Rortvedt is working on changing the way he goes about his business behind the plate.

“The new big thing is receiving metrics, working a lot on receiving the ball the right way. It’s different from how I grew up catching.

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Ben Rortvedt (Photo: SD Buhr)

“I grew up with more of an old style of catching, which was catch the ball where it is, try to make it look the best you can, be strong with the baseball. We’re moving more towards moving the baseball, trying to create strikes. So I’m kind of redefining myself behind the plate, trying to find a balance where I can still have my own flavor, but I can also move the baseball a little bit and create more strikes.”

It hasn’t necessarily been an easy adjustment to make all the time for Rortvedt.

“I grew up catching in 7th or 8th grade and I got really good at being strong with the baseball, so I’ve been fine tuning my game,” he explained. “It was almost frustrating in the beginning, but I think I’m starting to get more the hang of it. It’s a work in progress, just something to add to my game.”

Rortvedt’s workmanlike approach to the game is reflected in a simple goal for this year.

“I’m just out here to improve myself and win games,” he said. “If you win games, you’re probably doing well and contributing to the team.”

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
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Kernels Media Night Highlights

By Steven Buhr, April 4, 2018

The tarp covering the infield in Cedar Rapids was wet from a mix of rain and snow flurries over the past couple of days, but fortunately the only "work" that this year's Cedar Rapids Kernels had to do on Tuesday was do a meet and greet with fans on the concourse and, for a select few, survive a brief media inquisition.
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L to R: pitching coach Cibney Bello, manager Toby Gardenhire, hitting coach Brian Dinkelman, pitching coach Justin Willard (Photo: SD Buhr)

As has almost become a tradition in Cedar Rapids, the weather for "Meet the Kernels Night" at the ballpark was cold and damp. The forecast for their Opening Day in Davenport on Thursday is for a mix of rain and snow with a high during the day around 50 degrees.

The good news is that it's supposed to be sunny in Cedar Rapids for the home opener on Saturday. The less-good news is that the high temperature that day is projected to be 37 degrees.

Welcome to Midwest League baseball in April.

But let's worry about the weather later. For now, how about some snippets from the Kernels' introductory press conference?

To start things off, manager Toby Gardenhire and coaches Brian Dinkelman, Cibney Bello and Justin Willard fielded questions from local media.

One of those questions pertained to the evident shift in philosophies being ingrained by the Twins front office with regard to greater collection and use of analytical data at all levels of the organization.

"We have definitely dug into the analytical part of baseball now," said Dinkelman.. "We're definitely taking the next step trying to keep up with the game of baseball. Any information we can receive is good information. We try to just filter out what's good and what's bad and provide it to the players as necessary."

Gardenhire concurred with his hitting coach.

"I would say we're definitely diving into the more analytical way of doing things. the less old-school way of doing things, than we ever have before, with the new front office. They hired a lot of new people this year and a lot of those people are analytical-type people.

"What happens with the analytical side of it is you get a whole bunch of information. All of these things that Dink was just saying, they give you a lot of information and how you deal with that information is going to be different with every organization. We have all that information now, so we're on the cutting edge."

A lot has justifiably been made of the fact that the Kernels will have not just one first round draft choice, but a pair of them, in their everyday lineup. Royce Lewis was the first overall selection of 2017's draft class and Alex Kirilloff was the Twins' first round selection the year before.

Dinkelman was asked about his impressions of the highly touted pair during spring training.

"Royce got stronger since last year. One of the first things that I thought of when he came back hitting BP is that the ball is coming off his bat harder than it was last year. Alex, it was the first time I got to really look at him in spring training, but he looks good. He's a hitter first. He plays defense well. So it will be exciting to have both those guys on the team."

One thing that's new within the Twins minor league system this year is that two pitching coaches have been assigned to minor league affiliates. In Cedar Rapids, Bello and Willard will fill those roles.

"Two sets of eyes are always better than one," Willard explained. "And the theory is that the manager is usually a hitting guy and then you've got the hitting coach. You've got half the team that's pitchers, why not have another set of eyes on those guys? I'm excited to work with Cibney, for sure."

While the lineup in Cedar Rapids is going to be full of high draft picks and highly regarded international prospects, Bello expressed confidence that his pitching staff would hold up their end of things, as well, despite perhaps being less heralded than their position-player team mates.

"We have a few guys that are maybe not mentioned a lot, but it's going to be fun to see them pitching in the games," Bello said. "They're not afraid. They have good stuff, too. Maybe they were not drafted as a higher pick, but we're going to be fine. We're going to battle. We're going to compete and we're going to make people have fun."

Next up, it was catcher Ben Rortvedt and pitcher Blayne Enlow at the table. Rortvedt is returning to Cedar Rapids for the second season while Enlow will be seeing his first "full season" in professional ball and is scheduled to pitch the home opener on Saturday.

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Catcher Ben Rortvedt and pitcher Blayne Enlow (Photo: SD Buhr)

After pitching only for the Gulf Coast League Twins after being drafted in the third round last June, Enlow didn't enter spring training with any assurance that he'd be skipping the higher rookie league level in Elizabethton to open the year with the Kernels. Of course, that also means opening the season in temperatures that are likely to be well below anything he dealt with while playing high school ball in his native Louisiana.

"I think spring went really good," Enlow said, "but still it's like you're unsure where you're going to go. When they finally told us, of course I was excited. And then they're like, 'it's cold.' I was like, 'it can't be that bad.' Yeah, it is. Yeah, it is. But you've just got to get through it. It's just a new challenge. Just got to try to keep on pitching, keep on filling up with strikes, get people out and just win games."

Rortvedt will be largely splitting the Kernels catching duties with David Banuelos. Ben Rodriguez, who has been a catcher by trade in previous seasons, is being converted to first base, though he likely will continue to get a few opportunities behind the plate.

"I think me and David are going to split time pretty much the whole way this season," Rortvedt explained, while also mentioning that Rodriguez has been a successful catcher and will be filling the role of the team's third catcher. "(Banuelos) was very good back there in college at Long Beach State. So, yeah, I've been looking forward to it, just learning from each other and talking baseball, talking catching. So yeah it'll be fun."

Rortvedt also spoke glowingly of some of the changes in the Twins' minor league operation.

"There's a lot of new management with the Twins. We've got a new farm director and a lot of new people. There's a lot of younger faces now and a lot of people are very approachable, which I really enjoy. We've got a new catching rover, which we never had in the past, which is just amazing for the catchers, working one-on-one with us."
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Shortstop Royce Lewis and outfielder Alex Kirilloff (Photo: SD Buhr)[/caption]

Finally, the Minnesota Twins' first-round draft picks from 2016 and 2017, Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis, took their turns addressing media questions.

Lewis was asked how he felt he was different now than what he was as a player at the end of last season in Cedar Rapids.

"To start, I've already gained 15-20 pounds, so that's a big step in my power," he answered. "And just the mental side of it, more relaxed and kind of know how to play the game of baseball a bit more. Knowing the surroundings in Cedar Rapids around here just makes me feel calm and relaxed."

Kirilloff talked about the challenges he had to face as he sat out all of the 2017 season after elbow surgery.

"Definitely never the news you want to hear," he conceded. "I got it around spring training (last year) where my arm wasn't feeling the way it should and the best option was to get surgery, so to get that news was tough.

"For me, there's two ways you can look at it. You can harp on it and get down on yourself or you can take it as a challenge and try to make yourself better from it. I tried to do that. I got a lot stronger. Tried to pick up on things that maybe I wouldn't have if I was playing throughout the year. I think you've just got to try to make the best of it and come back better."

Both players acknowledged that the roster they're a part of to start the season in Cedar Rapids includes an exceptional number of highly regarded hitting prospects, while also noting that the group can't just show up and expect to be successful on the field.

"Yeah, it's like we're the Yankees on paper. That's what I'd say, for sure," said Lewis. "I mean, they've got the Bronx bombers, you've got a lot of home run hitters in this lineup.

"A couple of people were joking back in spring training, there's a lot of money you've got involved with this team. Which is kind of funny, but it's kind of true. But as for being prospects, we're just going to have fun and we're a good young team. I'm excited and we're going to work as hard as we can to win all those games."

"There's a lot of exciting players with the group and good people, as well," Kirilloff concurred. "I'm happy to be a part of the group. It's one thing to look at the paper and be impressed by it, but we've still got to go out and do our job and play hard every day."

Weather permitting, the Kernels will open their season Thursday evening in Davenport against the Quad Cities River Bandits (Astros affiliate).

The home opener is scheduled for Saturday in Cedar Rapids.
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Will Congress Screw Minor League Players Today?

By Steven Buhr, March 19, 2018

If you believe that maintaining the status quo in minor league baseball is important, you aren't going to like this article.

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However, if you believe that some things - like simple human decency in the area of fair pay - are more important than whether or not the current minor league model is continued, I suspect you'll be joining me in raising your voice in objection to what Major League Baseball (along with their weak sister organization, Minor League Baseball) are conspiring with members of the U.S. Congress to do as early as today.

The Washington Post is reporting that MLB lobbyists and a handful of Congressmen plan to attach an amendment to the $1.3 trillion spending bill that must become law this week in order to avoid another government shutdown. That amendment would specifically hand baseball an exemption to federal labor laws for their treatment of minor league ballplayers.

Congressmen in MLB/MiLB's pockets introduced a separate bill to grant this exemption a couple of years ago, but it has gone nowhere. So, now, it's apparently time to slip the provisions into a bill that has nothing whatsoever to do with anything related to baseball.

It's what's commonly called a "Christmas Tree Ornament" amendment that gets attached to a big "tree," in this case the critical spending bill. And guess who's getting the big present? Yes, 30 multi-billionaires who simply don't want to share even a fraction of the enormous revenues that fans are giving them with the very poorest of their players.

And the amendment's supporters aren't even being up front with their intention to hang this ornament on the spending bill tree.

According to the Post report, the amendment has not been included in any of the drafts of the bill distributed thus far. The intent, clearly, was to hang this particular ornament on the tree at the last minute, when nobody was looking closely enough to even notice it.

Let me pose this question, for any of you who may still think there's nothing wrong with 20 year old ballplayers working for far less than minimum wage. If giving MLB this exemption is the right thing to do, why hide it this way, even from other members of Congress?

Players at lower levels (such as with the Class A Cedar Rapids Kernels) are making maybe $1,200 per month. That's GROSS pay, by the way.

The players that will be sent to Cedar Rapids at the beginning of April aren't getting paid that while they're down in Ft. Myers for spring training, either. They get paid only for time spent on an active minor league roster. In the minor leagues, that's five months... at most. Many players play in "short season" leagues that run only three months during the summer.

Just for reference, I made better money working for a fast food burger chain... in 1976.

MLB has obviously been threatening the minor league organization, along with those who own and operate affiliated minor league teams, with all manner of catastrophic consequences (up to and including contraction of teams/classes within the minor league system, no doubt) should MLB end up required to pay their minor leaguers anything remotely close to a livable wage.

You see, despite the millions of dollars MLB's billionaires have paid their lobbyists, 30 wealth old white guys only can carry so much clout with Congress. But when you threaten the hundreds of minor league teams in Congressional districts across the country and get the front offices and fans of those teams involved with personal lobbying to save their local teams, now you've got yourself some effective lobbying. Lobbying that MLB didn't even have to pay for, just use a little not-so-subtle coercion.

Don't think this is what's going on? Listen to this quote within the Post story from Pat O'Conner, the head of MiLB.

“We’re in 42 states, 160 cities. We’ve got over $3 billion of infrastructure, much of which is still being paid off by the clubs and the communities where they exist,” he said. “This is about constituents, this is about jobs at home, and this is about quality of life at home.”

So, obviously, the concern is for the, "quality of life at home," for the local fans, rather than the quality of life for players, many of whom are from poor Latin American countries and most of whom did not receive anything close to the large signing bonuses that get all the media attention when they sign contracts with a MLB team.

The minimum wage in the big leagues is approaching $600,000. For the roughly price of one minimum wage big leaguer on each team, MLB could afford to pay an extra $1,200 per month to 100 of their minor league players (that's four rosters worth of players). For under a million of their precious dollars per year, MLB owners could effectively make this issue go away.

The Twins reportedly will have an Opening Day big league payroll of $130,000,000 (and they are only in the middle of the pack among their MLB peers in payroll). Think about that for just a moment.

It's not a coincidence that minor league pay is determined by negotiations with the MLB players' union - a union that minor leaguers are not actually members of.

In effect, the billionaire owners are putting the screws to minor league operators and fans (not to mention the players) in order to save themselves from having to spend a small fraction of 1% of their annual revenues on additional minor league pay.

The contract between MLB and MiLB that sets the terms for how affiliates operate together is due to expire in 2020 and MLB isn't going to renew it until this matter is resolved. They are obviously using the contract as leverage to get the minor league organizations to lobby Congress on their behalf.

It's coercion, plain and simple, and it's shameful.

Yet, because Congress is Congress, don't be surprised if it's also effective.

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)
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Vikings Embark on Redemption Tour

By Steven Buhr, January 6, 2018

It all begins today with the National Football League's Wildcard games.

This is the year that the Minnesota Vikings exorcize their demons one week at a time.
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I'm calling it right now. The Vikes are going to erase the memory of past failures every time they take the field in the postseason.

Think about it... what are arguably the biggest disappointments in Minnesota Viking history?

For my money, I'd list them this way
Every Super Bowl loss. I don't care if it was the first against the Chiefs or any of the other three against the Dolphins, Steelers and Raiders, they all sucked. Super Bowl Sunday was one dark blotch on the entire decade of the 70s.
Gary Anderson's missed field goal in the 1999 NFC Championship game against the Atlanta Falcons. I mean the guy NEVER missed. EVER. But that one time, he did. And the Vikings' shot at a redeeming Super Bowl win died.
Bountygate and Brett Favre's ill-advised pass against the New Orleans Saints in the 2010 NFC Championship game that, once-again, ended what we all hoped would be a Super Bowl season.

This is the year the Vikings settle all family business.

Of course, it will require the Falcons and Saints to do their parts and win their Wildcard games this weekend. But once the Falcons eliminate the Rams and the Saints send the Panthers home, the Vikings' Redemption Tour can get underway.

First up, they get revenge for 2010 and end the Saints' season. And if they just happen to beat up Drew Brees so badly that he retires from football, well, that would just be karma.

To set up the next exorcism, the Falcons will have to dump the Eagles, but honestly, does anyone really see Nick Foles leading his team to a playoff win against, well, anybody? I don't.

That sets up a do-over of 1998's gut-punch and this time the Vikings have a kicker that has already missed his first field goal of the season... and his second... and his third... and his fourth... and his fifth... and his sixth. Let's face it, the last thing Kai Forbath will have to think about as he lines up to kick a potential winning field goal is, "this would be a bad time to miss my first field goal of the season."

Just to be safe, of course, it would be best if the rest of the team spends the first 59 minutes of the game destroying the Falcons so we don't have to wonder what Forbath is thinking when he sets up for a clutch field goal (or PAT attempt, for that matter).

That brings us to what we've all been looking forward to - the Vikings hosting the Super Bowl in their own home stadium.

Now, I know most of the prognosticators are saying they'll face the New England Patriots in the Big Game. And that would be fun, I agree.
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It would also be very cool to see the Buffalo Bills somehow weave their way through the AFC playoff minefield and set up a contest between the two franchises with easily the sorriest Super Bowl histories in the NFL.

After all, one fanbase would finally have something to really celebrate.

But no, the Vikings must face either the Kansas City Chiefs, who topped the Joe Kapp led Vikings (yes, Joe Kapp actually led a team to the Super Bowl... I still don't understand how that happened, but it did) in the 1970 Super Bowl, or the Pittsburgh Steelers, who out-defensed the Vikings in 1975's version.

Either the Chiefs or Steelers would serve as an appropriate representative from which the Vikings could garner vindication for all four past Super Bowl losses.

That path, extinguishing the flames of the Saints, Falcons and either the Chiefs or Steelers and leading to the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy, all taking place in U.S. Bank Stadium, no doubt in front of Bud Grant, Fran Tarkenton and a host of past Vikings greats, would finally put to rest all of the ghosts that have haunted the Vikings over the past five decades.

Make it so.

(This article originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
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Ridiculously Premature Enthusiasm for Kernels' 2018

By Steven Buhr, January 2, 2018

It's too early for this.

It's too early to be looking at which of the hundreds of minor leaguers currently a part of the Minnesota Twins organization might take the field at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Cedar Rapids this summer.
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Tommy Watkins is moving up to AA Chattanooga to manage in 2018, but Royce Lewis could be back in Cedar Rapids to start the new season (Photo: SD Buhr)

It's definitely too early to get excited about the possibility of seeing the most promising group of prospects in Cedar Rapids since, perhaps, the class of 2013 (which included Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios and more) in the first year of the Kernels/Twins affiliation era.

Still, since it's been minus-10 degrees or so all day and I've had nothing else to do but watch a bunch of bowl games I generally don't care about at all, I'm going to share my excitement here anyway.

Even as the 2017 was winding down, I found myself taking mental inventory of which members of the playoff-bound Kernels might be starting 2018 in Cedar Rapids, as well. Then I started looking at the talent that was on the field for Elizabethton's Appalachian League champion club and projecting a few that were likely to get their first exposure to full-season minor league ball with the Kernels in 2018

All of that informal mental note-making left me feeling pretty optimistic that the Twins would send a pretty competitive group to Cedar Rapids this spring.

The Kernels have qualified for the Midwest League postseason in each of the five seasons that Cedar Rapids has been affiliated with the Twins and it was fine to feel pretty good about that streak continuing in 2018.

But then it happened.

A box arrived in the mail over this past weekend and inside was the 2018 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook.(Click here to get your copy.)

I should have just glanced through it to make sure my name was spelled correctly everywhere I was given a photo credit, then set it aside for a few weeks until we were at least getting closer to the date when pitchers and catchers report for spring training in Florida (which is the date I unofficially consider the baseball season to begin each year).

But knowing how much work the authors - Seth Stohs, Cody Christie and Tom Froemming - put into writing the Handbook and how packed with great content about every Twins minor league affiliate and literally every minor league player currently under contract to the Twins, well, just giving the book a glance through was something I couldn't limit myself to.

So I started reading. The authors have some great articles in there, reflecting not only their knowledge of the Twins organization, but their writing skills, as well. I probably should have just read those feature articles and, perhaps, about their selections for Twins Minor League Hitter, Starting Pitcher and Relief Pitcher of the Year Awards. (All three are Kernels alums, by the way.)

But that wasn't enough. Not when we're in the middle of a several-day stretch of sub-zero temperatures.

I give myself some credit, though. I didn't read EVERY one of the player features in their entirety. It's far too early in the year to do that.

No, I only read the features of those players that the authors suggested have some chance of playing ball for the Kernels in 2018.

I think there were about 60 of them. That may seem like a lot, given teams are limited to a 25-man roster, but it's really only a little bit more than the 50 or so that you might typically see come through any MWL roster in any given season.

Still, not all of them will wear Kernels uniforms this season. They mentioned 28, I think, that have played for the Kernels already that may return. That would be unusual. Some of those will start the season with a promotion to Ft. Myers, some could be injured or traded during spring training and some, unfortunately, could be released by the Twins before the season starts. That's just the harsh reality of professional baseball.

But many of the players who WILL be coming to Cedar Rapids, either to start the season or as replacements during the course of the summer, have some very impressive backgrounds and credentials.

The Kernels could feature not one, but two first-round draft choices.

Shortstop Royce Lewis, who was the first overall pick of the 2017 MLB amateur draft, spent most of the last month of the 2017 season with the Kernels and likely will start the 2018 season in Cedar Rapids as well. He could well be joined by the Twins' 2016 first round pick, outfielder Alex Kirilloff, who had been expected to spend time with the Kernels last year, but missed the entire 2017 season following elbow surgery.

Of course, both Lewis and Kirilloff got big signing bonuses as top draft picks, but they aren't likely to be the only million+ dollar bonus babies to put on Kernels uniforms in 2018.

While Lewis is likely to see a mid-season promotion if his play develops as we'd expect it to, the Twins have another millionaire shortstop ready to step into his shoes - and position - with the Kernels. Wander Javier got $4 million to sign as an International Free Agent in 2015.

A couple of teenaged pitchers could eventually find their ways to Cedar Rapids, though are perhaps less likely to start the season there. The Twins' 2017 second and third round draft picks, Blayne Enlow and Landon Leach, each got bonuses in excess of a million dollars to sign with the Twins, rather than play college ball.

While he didn't get it from the Twins, catcher David Banuelos also got a million dollars to sign with the Mariners as their 2017 third round pick. He was acquired by the Twins in December.

If Banuelos is assigned to Cedar Rapids, the Kernels could potentially have quite an impressive 1-2 punch behind the plate, since it would not be surprising to see Ben Rortvedt (who signed for $900,000 as the Twins' 2nd round pick in 2016) also return to start the season.

In addition to Rortvedt, seven additional likely (or at least potential) 2018 Kernels pulled down signing bonuses of between $400,000 and $900,000, Those include some pretty heralded prospects such as outfielder Akil Baddoo and infielder Jose Miranda, both of which were "Compensation B" round (between 2nd and 3rd rounds) selections by the Twins in 2016.

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Twins 2nd round draft pick in 2016 Ben Rortvedt could well begin 2018 behind the plate for Cedar Rapids. (Photo: SD Buhr)

Of course, signing bonuses aren't what matter the most once these guys get on the field. No matter what you got paid, what matters is what you do between the lines when you get a chance. Still, when you're looking at young players with limited professional experience to base judgements on, bonus money and draft position are simple means of projecting the level of talent any particular roster might consist of.

In addition to those already listed, the 2018 Kernels roster could include, at some point:
Two 4th round picks (pitcher Charlie Barnes - 2017, and third baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage - 2015, both of whom spent time with the Kernels in 2017) and a 5th rounder (third baseman Andrew Bechtold).
Six-figure International Free Agent signees like pitcher Jose Martinez ($340K in 2013) and catcher Robert Molina ($300K in 2013)
Nine additional players drafted by the Twins in the top 10 rounds of drafts between 2014 and 2017,

That is a lot of potential. And it doesn't even include Edwar Colina, who was the Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year last season.

Are you beginning to see why I'm getting excited for the season to start already? I mean, if you're Toby Gardenhire, the recently announced new manager for the Kernels, you have to feel pretty good about the talent level that you're going to have to work with in your first year as a manager in professional baseball, don't you?

Of course, the fun thing is that, even with all of these "prospects" on their way to Cedar Rapids, we know that there will be several guys not found on anyone's "prospect lists" that will grab hold of their opportunity to play baseball for a few dollars and show everyone they can play the game every bit as well as the guys getting all the attention... and money.

It happens every season and it will happen this year, too.

Cedar Rapids hasn't won a Midwest League title since Bengie Molina caught 45 games for the 1994 Kernels. No, that's not as long as the drought the Twins have endured since their 1991 World Series championship, but it's long enough.

So pardon me if I get spend a few of these cold January days daring to get excited about Kernels baseball in 2018.

If that's wrong, just blame Seth, Cody and Tom. That's what I usually do.

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)
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Thank You, Betsy

By Steven Buhr, December 30, 2017

If you're a Minnesota Twins fan, you're probably already well aware of the allegations that independent photographer Betsy Bissen went public via Twitter a couple days ago with her #MeToo experience involving Twins star Miguel Sano. I won't go into all the details but you can easily find them with a quick browser search.

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

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In a nutshell, Betsy's account is that, following an autograph session at a memorabilia store in 2015, Sano forcibly attempted to pull her into a restroom. The struggle, from which she ultimately extricated herself, lasted several terrifying minutes.

Over the past few weeks and months, we've seen victim after victim of male abuse of power/position come to light, most predominantly in the Hollywood, political and corporate environments. However, to my limited knowledge, this is perhaps the first allegation against a major league professional athlete, at least since the #MeToo movement came to prominence.

Given the historically misogynistic world of professional sports, the only surprising thing is that it took this long for experiences such as Betsy's to become public. Her allegation may or may not have been the first involving a MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL player, but I think we can be pretty certain it won't be the last.

MLB is beginning an investigation into the allegations regarding Sano, as is their responsibility and duty, apparently, under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement with the MLB Players Association. It is proper, I know, for those who know neither Sano nor Bissen personally, to decide they want to hold off on judgement until MLB does it's investigation thing.

Most of us who know Betsy at all (I consider myself her friend, though we are not what either of us, I'm sure, would consider to be close friends) are not generally feeling compelled to wait out an investigation before expressing our unequivocal support for her.

In fact, since she went public, she has received what would at least be considered public corroborative support from various parties who have, in the past, been at least somewhat familiar with Mr. Sano's treatment of women in manners not inconsistent with what Betsy described.

One person, Mike Holmdahl, recounted via Twitter that he had observed Sano making a female usher in Chattanooga uncomfortable during Sano's playing days with the Lookouts earlier in the same season that the event involving Bissen took place. That person was told by a senior usher there that they were so aware of Sano's activities with regard to female ushers that they had made an effort to avoid posting females near the home dugout. (You can find Holmdahl's full recounting as part of Brandon Warne's excellent piece at Zone Coverage.)

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports wrote that he had been told by, "five people, including teammates, ex-teammates and confidants, with whom he has spent time," that they characterized Sano as someone who, "saw the pursuit of women as sport," One of them called Sano "a ticking time bomb."

Jeff Goldklang, a member of the ownership group that currently owns the St. Paul Saints (for whom Bissen does some photography work) and previously owned the Twins' class high-A Ft. Myers Miracle related via Twitter that, "I've seen enough of both people to have absolutely no doubts in this story's veracity. I've personally seen Sano act inappropriately towards a woman- while in uniform, no less."

In fact, given these statements of at least partial corroboration, it does lead one to wonder what the Twins' front office knew about Sano's issues with women and when they knew it. But that's a question for another day and, if the MLB and the media do their jobs, we'll possibly get some answers some day.

All of this is just by way of saying that it would appear that Betsy Bissen is worthy of the support that her friends and many others are giving her.

But I'm not writing this to say I support her. She deserves more than that.

I'm writing to say, "Thank you," to Betsy for having the courage to speak out, knowing that the result would not be 100% supportive - that there would be a significant - and very vocal - segment of the population of Twins Territory who would demonize her for speaking out (conveniently hiding behind anonymous social media pseudonyms in most cases, of course}.

I will admit that Betsy's public allegations made me uncomfortable, just as the whole #MeToo movement has made me uncomfortable. But you know what? It's SUPPOSED to make me uncomfortable.

It's supposed to make me take stock of my own views and treatment of women - past, present and, in particular, future. And it has done just that.

I'm a 61 year old man. And while I certainly have never behaved toward any woman the way that Betsy related that Sano behaved toward her, I'm absolutely certain my words and actions toward women at various points in my life would not stand up to the spotlight that #MeToo is shining on us today.

I'm not naive enough to think #MeToo and people like Betsy Bissen are going to quickly and dramatically change the way we view and treat women in our society, especially, perhaps, in an era where our country has elected an openly misogynist President, sending a signal to a considerable segment of our population that it's OK to behave similarly toward our wives, girlfriends, sisters, daughters and granddaughters.

In fact, I doubt we'll see the kind of change that is needed take hold fully during my lifetime.

But, thanks to people like Betsy and others possessing similar courage, I have hope that my two grandsons (ages 2 and 4) will grow up in a world where they don't even question whether it's appropriate to treat girls and women with respect and, frankly, just common decency.

More importantly yet, I have hope that my not-quite-yet born granddaughter will grow up in such a world.

I have hope that she will grow up knowing that, if she aspires to be a sports photographer (or an actress or a political aide or a corporate executive), she shouldn't have to accept that being subject to what Betsy Bissen went through (or much worse) is considered just the price of admission into her chosen profession or avocation.

So, on behalf of my granddaughter and myself, let me just say it.

Thank you, Betsy.
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Sorting Through the BS

By Steven Buhr, November 27, 2017

A whole LOT of sports stuff has been going on over the past week or so.

Whether you're a Twins fan, a Vikings fan, a college football fan or a fan of one a team in one of those sports leagues
I don't really give a crap about like the NBA and NHL, there's been so much stuff happening, that you could spend almost all day reading stories on every major sports site, just to try to understand all of it.

Who has time for that?

Well, I do, of course. I have time for pretty much anything. For me it's just motivation that's lacking. I just don't WANT to read all that crap.

But I've read enough that I'm going to perform a public service and cut through all the BS and tell you what you really need to know about the things we care about. So let's get started.

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

Since the focus of this site has been baseball related and, specifically, Twins baseball related, let's start with Twins stuff.

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Twins GM That Levine is talking like the Twins are going after the big free agent fish in this season's free agent pool. Don't believe it. (Photo: SD Buhr)

You may have heard that the Twins have a real shot at landing Japanese star Shohei Ohtani.

He's the guy that would become the next Harmon Killebrew AND the next Johan Santana rolled into one if the Twins could sign him.

That is BS, of course, but it doesn't matter because the Twins won't land this big fish.

I can just hear you now. "But Thad Levine said on the radio..."

I know. That was BS, too.

Listen, no matter what you hear about all the stuff that Minnesota could offer Ohtani from his supposed "list" of things important to him, remember this: The New York Yankees can offer all of it, too. All of it.

I figure the Twins are expressing interest to drive up the price and make sure the Yankees have to pay every nickel possible, up to and including having to cough up some bodies from their heralded farm system to get more international bonus money to make sure they get Ohtani.

Come to think of it, the Twins have a bunch of international bonus money that could be made available in a trade.

Say... you don't suppose that's what Levine had in mind when he went on about how serious the Twins are about Ohtanom do you? No, of course not.

Anyway, Ohtani will be a Yankee, so that's all you really need to know.

Part of the Ohtani chatter also involved speculation that the Twins would also go after starting pitcher Yu Darvish.

Yeah, that isn't happening, either. Not because they can't afford it (they can), but because they're the Twins.

The Twins don't sign premier free agents and premier free agents don't have interest in signing with the Twins. Don't waste your time hoping that will change.

The Vikings have a similar amount of BS swirling through their fanbase. Seems they have won football games week after week after week... to the point where they have the second best record in their conference.

This has people excited. Not so excited that they aren't willing to toss the quarterback who led the team to all those wins overboard for a guy who hasn't taken a snap in forever, but excited nonetheless.

But real Vikings fans know we can cut through the BS because we know what's going to happen. We've been here before. Doesn't matter the QB or the coach or the stadium. We know how this ends.

When it matters... when it REALLY matters... a kick will sail wide of the uprights and the Vikings' season will be over.

If you accept that inevitability right now and just enjoy the ride until that happens, it will make life so much easier.

I'd write something about the Wild or the Timberwolves if I really cared, but I don't.

I'm not really sure anyone in Minnesota cares, either. All I hear about the Wild is that they suck. Always. But at least fans are consistent on the Wild, I keep hearing how the T-Wolves are great - or suck - or are great - or suck - except when they're great.

Bottom line for both teams is, when they show signs they can win something, someone let the rest of us know, so we can start paying attention. And since nothing matters less in pro sports than what happens in the NHL and NBA regular seasons, don't bother talking about it until the playoffs or the offseason, whichever comes first for these two organizations.

That leaves major college football.

I know it really isn't fair to talk about big time college football when I've just said the NHL and NBA are irrelevant for these purposes, since both the Wild and T-Pups have been relevant since the last time the same could be said about Gophers football.

However, since so many of the best Minnesota high school football players are on rosters in Wisconsin or other locations where football IS relevant (like North Dakota, for instance), it's understandable that Minnesotans still pay attention to the goings-on in the Big Ten Conference and elsewhere.

If you haven't paid attention since back when the Gophers mattered, you may not be aware that the National Champion in football is no longer decided by who finishes first in the polls.

Years ago, something called the BCS was formed to match up the top two teams in the nation and that evolved into the current "final four" playoff system for it's major college programs.

There's a committee whose responsibility it is to decide who the top four teams are and then those teams play a mini-tournament in January to determine the National Champion.

Or that's how it's supposed to work.

Here's what really happens: the Committee gives one of the four spots to Alabama, one to the ACC Champion and one to the B1G Champion, then picks the one other team that they think have the best chance to give Alabama a game.

You may have heard that the teams the committee ranks at the top keeps losing the following week. This is true. In fact the top two teams lost this weekend and one of those teams was Alabama.

Now everyone is talking and writing about how the Tide won't even be in the SEC Championship Game, so is unlikely to be in the playoffs.

Don't believe that BS.

There are few things more certain in life than Alabama being in the college football playoffs.

There have been three playoffs since the current system replaced the old BCS "one vs two" system. Alabama has been in all three. They were also in three of the last five BCS Championship games. That's the next best thing to a sure thing.

The SEC Champion has been in the playoffs in each of the past 11 years - the final eight years of the BCS and first three years of the current playoff system. The inclusion of the SEC Champion is damn near the very definition of a "sure thing."

Of course, that won't be Alabama this year. But before you think for a moment that it means Nick Saban's team will get left out of the party, keep in mind that the Tide didn't win the SEC in 2011, either, but that didn't stop the powers-that-be from matching them up in the BCS Championship game against LSU, the team that DID win the SEC title.

Yes, even though they could select only TWO teams, they chose Alabama over the champions of every other conference in the country. And you think that now, with four spots available, they won't plug in Alabama over... well... pretty much anyone else? Fat chance.

When the teams are announced, here's what you can be pretty certain will happen: The four teams will be the SEC Champion, the ACC Champion, the B1G Champion and... Alabama.

When it comes to Alabama being selected, it will happen for one reason: It always happens. Always.

Just like how the Vikings will always break your heart and any free agent that the Twins and Yankees both want will always sign with the Yankees.

Until one of those things doesn't happen, we should just assume that anyone who tries to tell us otherwise is feeding us BS.
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Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc

By Steven Buhr, August 31, 2017

Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc.

What, you didn't take Latin in school? That's no excuse for not knowing the English translation of that phrase. After all, it played a pivotal role in an episode of the Aaron Sorkin political drama, "The West Wing," only a couple of decades ago.

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Manager Tommy Watkins and Royce Lewis (photo by SD Buhr)

Fine, since most of you still probably have no clue, I'll provide the translation. Loosely, it means, "After this, therefore because of this."

The phrase refers to the generally inaccurate fallacy that just because a particular event occurred just prior to another event, the first event must have caused the second. Of course, that's not always true. In fact, it seldom is.

So why am I telling you all of this here on a baseball blog?

Because I want to talk to you about Royce Lewis and the Cedar Rapids Kernels.

The Kernels qualified for the Midwest League Playoffs by finishing second in the league's Western Division standings during the first half of the season, which concluded in mid-June.

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Lewin Diaz (photo by SD Buhr)

About that time, the parent Minnesota Twins started promoting many of the players that played key roles in the first half.

Tom Hackimer, Andrew Vasquez, Jermaine Palacios, Jaylin Davis, Mitchell Kranson, Brandon Lopez, Sean Poppen and Alex Robinson all earned promotions between the end of May and early July.

While Cedar Rapids still had a pretty talented core of position players and several effective pitchers, the promotions took a toll and the results on the field reflected that toll.

The Kernels went 4-5 during second half games played in June and 13-15 in July games.

They followed that up by winning just four of their first ten August games, averaging just three runs per game in those contests. They scored two or fewer runs in eight of those ten games, getting shutout in three of them.

That left the Kernels with a 21-26 second-half record as they prepared to host Quad Cities for the third game in a four game home series on August 12.

On that morning, the Twins announced that 2017's first-overall draft pick, Royce Lewis, was being promoted to Cedar Rapids from Elizabethton. Lewis made his Kernels debut that evening.

Since then, the Kernels have won 13 games and lost just five, as they prepare to head into the final few regular season games and get ready to host Kane County in game one of the first round of the playoffs on September 6.

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Bullpen arms Max Cordy, Patrick McGuff, Logan Lombana (photo by SD Buhr)

In the first ten games of August, the Kernels averaged just three runs per game. Since August 12, they've averaged over five per game.

In those first ten games this month, Kernels pitching and defense were combining to surrender 4.8 runs per game. Since then, they've been giving up just over three.

So the Kernels' have clearly turned things around since Royce Lewis donned jersey number 30 for Cedar Rapids, but could he really be THE reason his team appears primed for the playoffs?

Lewis has hit .339 since taking over the leadoff spot in the order on August 12 and he's made several impressive plays at shortstop, as well, so he's clearly ONE reason for the Kernels' recent success.

But to assume he's the only reason would be inaccurate - and more than a little insulting to several of his teammates who have also dialed things up a few notches down the stretch, not to mention manager Tommy Watkins and his coaches.

In fact, as well as Lewis has played, Lewin Diaz has arguably outperformed the newbie during the same stretch of games. Diaz, who has been strong all season, has hit .351 with an OPS north of .900 since Lewis' arrival.

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Shane Carrier (photo by SD Buhr)

Travis Blankenhorn struggled at the plate in July, but he's popped a .947 OPS in August. He's hit .319 since August 12 and has hit five home runs in that same stretch.

Shane Carrier was on the Kernels' roster out of spring training, but struggled and was ultimately sent back to extended spring training. Since rejoining Cedar Rapids a week before Lewis' arrival, he's hit .280, clubbed five home runs and racked up an .885 OPS.

Shane Kennedy joined the Kernels on August 22 and has been getting on base at a .452 clip while putting up a .910 OPS.

Jimmy Kerrigan has been about a .270 hitter with the Kernels, but he's hit .312 since August 12.

Trey Cabbage and Ben Rortvedt each sport batting averages around .225. But since August 12, they've each been hitting about 45 points higher at .270 or so.

The Kernels' rotation has been in a state of near-constant flux this month and has been hit particularly hard by promotions.
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Eduardo Del Rosario (photo by SD Buhr)

Still, virtually every arm that manager Tommy Watkins and pitching coach J.P. Martinez have sent to the mound to start a game has at least given the team five solid innings before turning things over to what has been a consistently effective bullpen.

Reliever Hector Lujan hasn't allowed an earned run in any of his eight appearances beginning August 8.

Eduardo Del Rosario, who pitched well enough as a starter for the Kernels to earn a late-July promotion to Fort Myers, returned to Cedar Rapids August 15 as a bullpen arm and hasn't allowed an earned run in any of his five outings since.

Maybe it's all a coincidence.

Maybe, as they approached the final three weeks of a long season, these guys were all poised to ratchet their games up a notch or two as they headed toward the postseason.

All we can say for certain is that Royce Lewis showed up on August 12 with his smile and his infectious energy... and he stroked base hits in each of his first four plate appearances that night.

And since then, this has been a very different Kernels team on the field than what we were seeing up to that point during the season's second half.

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Ben Rortvedt and Logan Lombana (Photo by SD Buhr)

This team is clearly having fun and they are definitely winning a lot of baseball games.

The first two rounds of the Midwest League playoffs are best two of three games, so advancing through those rounds is pretty much a crapshoot, but three weeks ago, not many people watching the Kernels on a regular basis would have given this team much of a chance to get through the initial round of the postseason.

Whatever the reasons, that has changed. This is a team that now looks like a legitimate postseason contender and likely everyone in that clubhouse deserves a share of the credit.

(This article originally was posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
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Kernels Expect a Fun Season

By Steven Buhr, April 5, 2017

There were differing opinions concerning who won the dance contest held in the Kernels' clubhouse prior to "Meet the Kernels Night" in Cedar Rapids on Tuesday, but the players and coaches who were brought in to talk to the media were in agreement on one thing. They all expect the 2017 Kernels season to be fun.
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Kernels players meeting fans on "Meet the Kernels Night" in Cedar Rapids. (photo: SD Buhr)

In fact, almost all of the players and coaches who endured media interrogation before moving on to the stadium concourse to meet the fans who showed up for the event used the word "fun" in at least one of their responses to media questions.

(Article originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)

That shouldn't come as any surprise to anyone who has spent time with the Kernels' new manager, Tommy Watkins. If you see Watkins at a ballpark without a smile on his face, snap a picture quick. It would be a rarity.

Early during the media session, Watkins was asked what sort of mood he likes to see in his team's clubhouse.
"Probably like a somber mood," Watkins deadpanned.

"No, a lot of energy," he continued, after the laughter in the room faded. "We just had fun down in the clubhouse before we came up, so it was a lot of fun. Get the guys moving around a little bit. Everybody danced a little. I think we like to bring a lot of energy and like to have fun. Play the game the right way."

His coaches, Brian Dinkelman and J.P. Martinez, claimed Tommy won the dance contest and Tommy claimed the two coaches had been the winners. Later, pitcher Sean Poppen would claim that he'd been the true winner.

Whether or not there was an actual winner of that contest, there was no question that Watkins, his coaches and his players all are looking forward to having a fun season - and winning some baseball games along the way.

"I’m excited about all of these guys," Watkins said of the players making up the first roster of his minor league managing career.

"They were fun to watch in spring training. Good group of guys, they all got along well. Up and down the lineup I think you’ll see a lot of energy, you’ll see a lot of guys play the game hard. I think they’ll be fun to watch this year. Same thing from the pitching side. We’ve got guys who can throw it over. We’ve got guys that throw hard, got some off-speed stuff. From both sides of the ball, these guys will be fun to watch."
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Hitting coach Brian Dinkelman, Manager Tommy Watkins and Pitching coach JP Martinez (photo: SD Buhr)

While last year's opening day roster was composed largely of returning players from the 2015 Kernels roster, only eight of this year's group wore a Cedar Rapids jersey at some point last year. Most of the group, including many of the returning players, played together at Elizabethton in the Appalachian League, during a season that did not see the sort of success on the field that E-town fans have come to expect.

Pitching coach J.P. Martinez said he things this group is hungry for success, as a result.

"I think in Cedar Rapids, in particular, we’ve set the bar pretty high," Martinez said, recounting the success the Kernels have had, including making the playoffs in each of the four seasons since the inception of the affiliation agreement with the Twins.

"I think (these players) are eager to prove that they belong at this level, maybe partly because they didn’t really have the success they wanted last year, but they're a really, really talented group. A really close-knit group and so we’re hoping that we can kind of steer them in the right direction. They are the future of the franchise."

Brian Dinkelman, the hitting coach, also thinks there's a lot of potential in this group of Kernels.

"Yeah, we’ve got some guys that can definitely swing the bat," he said of the hitters he'll be working with. "We've got a lot of young guys. We’ve got (Lewin) Diaz and (Jermaine) Palacios and (Ben) Rortvedt - guys that are still in their teens. But we’ve got some guys who can swing the bat and do some damage, so looking forward to the season. A lot of guys to work with. Hope we can develop them and move on to the next level.
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Ben Rortvedt, Sean Poppen and Travis Blankenhorn (photo: SD Buhr)

One of the guys the hitting coach mentioned, Rortvedt, is among the players who will be getting their first taste of full-season professional experience this season in Cedar Rapids.

"Wonderful. A bit of an upgrade with the stadium from Elizabethton and the Florida GCL," the Wisconsin native responded, when asked for his initial impressions."I played here growing up a couple of times and it was fantastic. I mean, it wasn’t full bleachers, but I’ve seen pictures of you guys filling up the stadium, so I’m really excited.

"I played with a bunch of the guys last year and we’ve bonded pretty well, so it’s going to be a fun season."

There's that word, "fun" again, along with another common theme of the day, team chemistry.

Pitcher Sean Poppen and infielder/DH Travis Blankenhorn expressed similar expectations.

"(Tommy) is great. I think he’s really going to develop team chemistry and that’s pretty important," Poppen said, of his manager.

"We had Tommy in instructs (fall instructional league) and spring training," Blankenhorn added. "He just keeps the game fun. It’s fun to play for him. He keeps it fun for all of us. It makes baseball a lot better when you’re having fun."

"Absolutely," Rortvedt agreed. "I didn’t know Tommy going into instructs and he came in already cracking jokes at me, so he’s definitely going to keep us loose in the dugout."

Fun and chemistry are important, but Poppen doesn't think that's all Watkins brings to his team.

"He’s a good coach. I’ve had some experiences with him that were very helpful and I feel like he’s going to help me - and help the team - get better."

"I think we have a good team this year," Blankenhorn concluded. "I think we have a bunch of pitchers that are going to throw strikes and go out there and put some zeros on the board. I think we have some good sticks in our lineup that are going to put the ball in play and puts some runs up and hopefully we can win some games."

Having fun and winning games. Sounds like a pretty good combination.
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Twins Brass Setting Up Molitor to Fail?

By Steven Buhr, April 2, 2017

With the 2017 Minnesota Twins season set to open up on Monday, it's finally time to try to predict what this team will do over the next 162 games.

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

Looking at the Opening Day roster and comparing it to what we saw a year ago, making a prediction that doesn't have the Twins once again at least flirting with 100 losses takes a combination of considerable imagination and pure hope.
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Twins GM That Levine (Photo by SD Buhr)

A 103-loss team a year ago, it's pretty hard to see obvious reasons to project a significant improvement in that record. The primary change (in fact, perhaps the only significant change) in the organization came in the front office and, no matter what you think of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the new Twins brass won't pitch or hit the team to more wins.

This is a roster that cried out for pitching upgrades and I defy anyone to look at the Opening Day pitching staff and point out where significant improvement is going to come from. The decision-makers have determined that manager Paul Molitor will have 13 pitchers to choose from. I don't think volume is going to automatically make the staff better, though.

What this roster does have, thanks to the extra pitching being carried, is a total lack of offense available off the bench. When Molitor looks down his bench for a pinch hitter, he's going to be looking at Chris Gimenez, Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana.

The only way he'll see a viable pinch hitter in that dugout is if he has started Escobar at shortstop, leaving Jorge Polanco available.

Gimenez, the backup catcher, is also supposedly the backup first baseman behind Joe Mauer. That's not ideal. I have to wonder if we won't see Max Kepler at first base with some frequency. I don't doubt he can handle the position (he did well enough there in Cedar Rapids back in 2013), but it's a waste to put a guy with his range in the outfield at first base. It just makes you worse as a team, defensively, at both positions.

I don't envy Molitor the task he has before him this season.

Owner Jim Pohlad made it clear at the end of 2016 that, regardless of who he hired to run his baseball operations, they were going to keep Molitor as their manager in 2017.

So Falvey and Levine knew they wouldn't be able to hire the manager of their choice until the 2018 season.

But it's almost as if they collectively decided that they weren't going to go out of their way during the 2016-2017 offseason to improve the Twins' roster and risk giving Molitor any chance to win enough games to make replacing him an unpopular thing to do, either with fans or with an owner who clearly likes the Hall-of-Famer, after his lame-duck season wraps up.

Molitor has certainly not set the world on fir in his first two seasons as a manager. In this interview with the Pioneer Press' Brian Murphy, Molitor even admits that, "Learning to run the bullpen has been a work in progress."

He'll get no argument from most Twins fans on that point.

Molitor also conceded that his ability to produce more wins may be taken out of his hands as this season unfolds. After trying, and failing, to get what they considered fair market trade value out of veterans like Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana during the offseason, you have to assume that the Twins new front office would be quick to pull the trigger on mid-season trades of such players if they get off to good starts, driving up their trade values

With a front office so obviously focused on the future, such moves would have significant negative effects on the chances of Molitor leading his team to enough wins to save his job.

To his credit, it's clear from the comments he made to Murphy that Molitor, while being aware of these circumstances, isn't particularly concerned about them. Or at least he's classy enough not to express any such concerns publicly.

Make no mistake, however, any ultimate failure of the 2017 Twins to substantially improve the results that fans see on the field would be a shared responsibility.

I won't argue that Molitor would be blameless for a lack of success, but his front office did him no favors with its inactivity all offseason long. They had an obvious task - improve the pitching, both the rotation and the bullpen. They did almost nothing to address that need and that, in my view, would make them primarily responsible if a lack of pitching talent leads to another bad season.

I'm hoping that another year of development will mean significant improvements on the field from guys such as Kepler, Polanco, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano.

I'm hoping Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson have good years and that whatever mix is in that bullpen turns out able to do its job well.

I'm hoping that some of the organization's young pitchers develop quickly enough to provide upgrades during the course of the season.

As a fan, hoping is all I have the ability to do.

Unfortunately, everything I've seen, heard and read about the new Twins front office indicates that they're just hoping all those things happen, too.

Falvey and Levine, however, walked into their offices at Target Field with the absolute authority to reshape their roster and they did virtually nothing to give Molitor - and Twins fans - anything of substance to hang our hopes on for this season.
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A Tale of Two Catchers

By Steven Buhr, December 8, 2016

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

Granted, it probably wasn't anywhere near the "worst of times" for Stuart Turner and Mitch Garver, but the excitement of learning they had been drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the June, 2013 Amateur Draft had to have been at least slightly dampened with the realization that the Twins had drafted both of them.
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Mitch Garver (Photo: SD Buhr)

Going into that draft, the Twins knew they needed catching. They didn’t yet know just how desperately they needed catching.

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

The Twins had allowed their organization to become thin at a critical (if not THE most critical) defensive position. And it was understandable, to a degree. After all, they had the reigning American League Most Valuable Player behind the plate. Catcher Joe Mauer was not only good for a .300 batting average and .400 on-base percentage every season, but he had only just turned 30 years old a few weeks earlier.

What the Twins’ brass didn’t know – and couldn’t know – as they gathered in their offices for the June 2013 Amateur Player Draft, was that Mauer would never get behind the plate to catch another big league game after the 2013 season, due to persistent concussion problems.

Still, to their credit, they identified the catching position as one that warranted some focus in the 2013 draft.

And focus they did.

The Twins used three of their top 10 picks in 2013 on catchers and added another in the 22nd round.

After selecting pitchers Kohl Stewart and Ryan Eades in rounds one and two, Minnesota picked Ole Miss catcher Stuart Turner in the third round. He was the 2013 Johnny Bench award winner, presented to the top NCAA Division I catcher.

In the sixth round, the Twins grabbed a high school catcher, Brian Navarreto.

New Mexico Lobo catcher Mitch Garver was selected by the Twins in the ninth round. Garver was one of three finalists for the Johnny Bench award that Turner won. In fact, it was the second year that Garver was a Bench Award finalist.

The Twins added Alex Swim out of Elon (NC) University in the 22nd round, to complete the 2013 catching class.

Adding that many catchers to the organization at one time required a bit of roster manipulation on the part of the Twins farm director Brad Steil and his group. You obviously can’t just start the entire group at the same level and still get everyone enough work behind the plate to develop them.

Navarreto, being a few years younger than the others, was easy to plug into the rookie league programs.

Fair or not, as a lower round pick, there would be less emphasis on getting Swim adequate opportunities to show what he could do behind the plate.

By the end of the 2013 season, of course, the Twins pretty much knew Mauer’s career as a catcher was effectively over and suddenly the club and its fans became much more interested in the catchers coming up through the farm system, particularly in Turner and Garver.
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Stuart Turner (Photo: SD Buhr)

The Twins don’t make a habit of starting many of their young players at the Advanced Class A level in Ft. Myers, but it was important that both Turner and Garver get as much time working with pitchers from behind the plate as possible. That could only be accomplished by splitting the two catchers up in their first full season of professional ball. To accomplish that, Turner was assigned to Ft. Myers, while Garver spent 2014 at Class A Cedar Rapids.

A year later, Turner and Garver remained one level apart as Turner was promoted to AA Chattanooga and Garver moved up to Ft. Myers.

In fact, the first time the two became teammates wasn’t even technically with a Twins affiliate.

The Twins sent both catchers to the Arizona Fall League in October, 2015. Both caught 11 games and DH’d in one for AFL champion Scottsdale. Garver hit .317 for the Scorpions, while Turner hit just .171.

That set up a 2016 season where Garver and Turner would both begin the year at Chattanooga.

While the two had been effectively competing with one another for some kind of mythical “Twins top catching prospect” designation since that 2013 draft day, this was the first time Garver and Turner were set up to go side-by-side into a regular season at the same professional level.

That dynamic continued into the second week of August, when the Twins had a spot for a catcher open up at their AAA affiliate in Rochester and the call went out to Chattanooga for someone to finish out the season with the Red Wings.

Since Turner was about to finish his second Class AA season with the Lookouts and Garver was still in his first tour through the Southern League, you might have thought that Turner would get the promotion – but you would have been wrong.

With Garver hitting a respectable .257 (.753 OPS) at the time, while Turner was hovering around .210 (and an OPS around .650), it was Garver that was packing for Rochester.

But it wasn’t just his bat that appeared to have pushed Garver ahead of Turner on the Twins’ organizational depth chart. He threw out 52% of runners attempting to steal on him (23 of 44 attempts) in Chattanooga. Turner threw out 19 of 48 attempted base stealers for a 40% clip.

Admittedly, using “caught stealing” statistics as a measure for a catcher’s work behind the plate is iffy, at best. For one thing, runners steal bases off of pitchers as much as (if not more than) off catchers. However, in this case, that factor is largely mitigated since the two were catching members of the same Chattanooga pitching staff.

After the season, the Twins again sent Garver to get additional work in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .229 and put up a .756 OPS, fueled by four home runs and four doubles in 70 at-bats for the AFL runner-up Surprise Saguaros.

Whether Garver will eventually hit and, perhaps more importantly, catch well enough to work his way into the Minnesota Twins lineup on a regular basis certainly remains an unknown. However, we do know the Twins like him enough that, as the AFL season wrapped up, they added him to their 40-man roster.

Meanwhile, Turner was not added to that roster, exposing him to Major League Baseball’s Rule 5 draft.

On Thursday, the Cincinnati Reds selected Turner from the Twins in said draft.

Ironically, while it’s clear that the Twins now value Garver’s big league potential over that of Turner, it’s Turner that very well could get to the big leagues ahead of Garver.

As a Rule 5 pick, the Reds will need to keep Turner on their big league club in 2017 or return him to the Twins (or offer the Twins some sort of additional compensation in return for being allowed to keep him at a minor league level).

At the same time, Garver will open spring training in the big league camp but has no guarantee in his pocket assuring him a spot with the Twins on Opening Day.

On draft day in June of 2013, Turner and Garver had to be wondering what the chances were that the two of them would somehow both work their way into a Minnesota Twins uniform. It seemed likely that, some day, the Twins were going to need to make a choice between them.

That day came and the Twins chose to cast their lot with Garver.

Fortunately for Turner, he’s getting a pretty good consolation prize, courtesy of the Cincinnati Reds.
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Kernels on the Links

By Steven Buhr, August 11, 2016

Every year, a number of Cedar Rapids Kernels players and coaches spend one of their off-days sweating on a golf course with a bunch of people willing to shell out a couple dollars (actually a bit more) for the pleasure of sharing their company as they knock a little white ball about 6,000 yards around a local golf course to benefit the organization’s childrens’ reading program.http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/CordyMiller-600x400.jpg
- Max Cordy is slightly taller than Sean Miller

Today was such a day.

I was fortunate enough to get to be part of a fivesome that included Kernels relief pitcher Max Cordy.http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Cordy1-200x300.jpg
- It’s in the hole! OK – maybe not.

Cordy is a 23-year-old righthander drafted by the Twins out of UC-Davis a year ago, made just three appearances at E’Town this year before being promoted to Cedar Rapids. He has a 2.00 in eight appearances for Cedar Rapids and is striking out about one batter per inning since arriving in Cedar Rapids.

Our group didn’t come close to winning anything in the 5-man best-shot competition, but that didn’t stop us from having a good time, despite enduring some heat (and even more humidity) as we made our way around Hunter’s Ridge Golf Course.

Kernels infielder Sean Miller was playing with the group ahead of us on the course and, despite our best efforts, we couldn’t even hit a decent shot into Miller’s group to make them nervous.

The golf outing is just one of several ways Twins minor leaguers participate in community relations activities in the Cedar Rapids area during the season.

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- That drive was right down the middle!

I’d like to tell you everything Max and I talked about during our 4+ hours together, but what’s said on the golf course stays on the golf course. Plus, I might have had a beer or two during the round, so I probably wouldn’t relate anything we talked about accurately anyway.
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There I Go, Turn the Page

By Steven Buhr, June 2, 2016

Here I am
On the road again
There I am
Up on the stage
Here I go
Playin' star(s) again
There I go
Turn the page

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It has got to be lonely being Paul Molitor these days. About the only thing separating him from the tortured Bob Seger that penned “Turn the Page” back in 1972 is that he isn’t subjected to riding a bus somewhere east of Omaha with locals at truck stops making snide remarks about his long hair.

(This article originally was posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

I’m not sure what he envisioned his life would be like as the manager of the Minnesota Twins when he signed on for the gig after Ron Gardenhire was let go following the 2014 season, but I’d bet every cent I have that he wasn’t expecting this. After all, his Twins are on pace to finish with one of the worst records in Major League Baseball history. Not Twins history, not franchise history, not American League history, but in all of MLB history.

This is taking place after a season, in 2015, that many people thought saw the Twins, under Molitor in his first season as a manager at any level, take a significant step forward in terms of competitiveness.

Sure, everyone knew there were candidates for regression on the club’s roster and nobody knew what to expect of their imported Korean designated hitter, but there were also players that we felt had reasonable chances to improve their performance levels over what we saw in 2015. Even the most pessimistic among us could not have reasonably expected this to happen.

But it has happened. The Twins are 15-37 as they return home to face the Tampa Bay Rays, themselves sitting at the bottom of the American League East standings at the moment.

There has been plenty written in the Twins community about what’s gone wrong and what should be done about it. Some of the suggestions have been reasonable, many have not.

You can’t trade players for whom there is no market and you can’t really flat out release most of them, either.

Most teams won’t fire their manager and/or their general manager during the first two months of the season, especially when that manager is only in his second season at the helm and the general manager has been around forever and is credited with rebuilding a farm system that is acknowledged to be among the best in the game.

Typically, you give the guys you left spring training with a couple of months to come around before you go about making significant changes. Your options are limited in April and May, anyway, because few teams are going to be interested in adding noteworthy pieces to their rosters that early, even if you are ready to turn the page sooner than that.

But we’re into June now and while most teams still won’t be prepared to make many deals at least until later in the month, it’s time to start initiating those discussions.

It is also time to start looking at what you want your roster to look like on Opening Day 2017. If there’s a silver lining to a miserable start like this, it’s that you don’t have to wait until spring training next March to start evaluating your options. You don’t even have to wait until the traditional “September call up” portion of the season. You’ve got a full four months to look at what you’ve got before you have to make decisions about which positions you will need to fill from outside your organization during the offseason.

The Twins are likely to lose over 100 games this season. It could be more. It could be a few less, but not a lot less.
It’s time to turn the page.

Listen, I like Trevor Plouffe. He has, in my view, turned himself into a more-than-adequate third baseman after nearly playing himself out of baseball at shortstop. He also hits enough that there’s nothing wrong with him being a regular in a Major League lineup.

I like Brian Dozier even more. He came to Cedar Rapids in January, 2013, with the first Twins Caravan after the Twins announced they would be affiliating with the local Kernels Class A team and did a great job on the dais. With the personality he showed that night, it came as no surprise to me that he eventually became a fan favorite in the Twin Cities. Like Plouffe, he turned out not to be the answer for the Twins at shortstop, but he transitioned to second base where he has done an excellent job.

When Joe Nathan departed, many of us were nervous about whether the Twins would find someone capable of holding down the closer role out of the bullpen. Enter Glen Perkins and the problem was solved.

Joe Mauer’s situation would command a full article itself, but his contract and no-trade rights make it a waste of time to even discuss his future with the team for the next couple of seasons.

These players, along with a few others perhaps, have had good rides as members of the Twins and they have earned every bit of fan loyalty they get. But the hard truth is that few, if any, of them are going to be part of the next run of winning seasons at Target Field.

Already this season, injuries have created opportunities to look at some young players. In most cases, those opportunities were wasted as players like Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler rode the pine during their time filling in for banged up regulars.
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Byron Buxton (Photo: SD Buhr)

Maybe “playin’ stars again” was defensible early in the season when you were still trying to make something of your season, but no longer. It’s time to turn the page.

As Ted over at Off the Baggy pointed out this week, with Kepler being promoted again (this time to fill in for the injured Miguel Sano), it’s time to plug Kepler and the also-recently-recalled Byron Buxton into the lineup and let them run.

Sano’s hamstring will eventually heal and he’ll return. I find myself agreeing with Howard Sinker of the Star-Tribune who tweeted earlier this week, “Friends, I was less skeptical on it than most of you, but it's time for the Sano-in-right field thing to end. Make something work, #MNTwins.”

I really had no issue with putting Sano in the outfield. He’s athletic enough that he should be able to play a passable right field and he has improved out there. But I’ve pulled a hamstring before and I know that, once you do that, it’s pretty easy to do it again. I don’t think putting him back out there when he comes back makes a lot of sense when it’s pretty obvious that it is not going to be his position long-term (and by long-term, we are probably now including 2017).

The Twins need to decide where they envision Sano fitting in. Wherever that is, whether it’s third base, first base or simply as their full-time designated hitter, I would just plug him in there when he gets back and move on to the next decision.

Bouncing Buxton, Kepler and Polanco up and down between Minneapolis and Rochester should end. Buxton is your center fielder, Kepler is in a corner and Polanco is in the middle of your infield somewhere.

I’ve seen others opine that Byung Ho Park should be sent down to Rochester, perhaps to make room for Sano when he comes back. I disagree, unless the Twins are prematurely giving up on him. He will hit AAA pitching, just as he hit Korean pro ball pitching. He needs to learn to hit MLB pitching and if the Twins plan on keeping him, he should stay in the Twins’ lineup until he proves that he can (or can’t).

I don’t know if Oswaldo Arcia will be in the Twins outfield for the next few years, but I know Danny Santana and Eduardo Nunez won’t, so Arcia should get more time out there with Buxton and Kepler (unless the Twins decide someone like Adam Bret Walker should get a long look).

The same situation exists behind the plate. Kurt Suzuki’s time with the Twins is nearing an end. I don’t know who will take over, but now is the time for the Twins to get extended looks at their internal candidates.

You could make similar cases for an overhaul of the pitching staff, but I’d be more patient with promoting the young pitchers, unless you get good offers for some of your existing staff members. I just see less urgency there.

Finally, there’s the Molitor question and that is tethered to the Terry Ryan question. Will either, or both, be back in 2017 and beyond?

Molitor will be entering the final year of his existing contract in 2017. Typically, no manager likes being a “lame duck” manager. He wants an extension in place before the start of the final year of his deal or he risks losing his clubhouse as players begin to tune his message out as they assume he won’t be around long.

Say what you will about the infamous Jim Pohlad patience with his front office, but I think Ryan would have a tough time convincing even Pohlad that Molitor should be rewarded for his work in 2016 with an extension.

Of course, that assumes that Ryan will even be around to make that pitch to Pohlad.

It’s almost impossible for me to envision Pohlad announcing publicly that he has dismissed Terry Ryan. It is not difficult at all, however, for me to envision an announcement that Terry Ryan has decided that, as the person responsible for assembling the roster, he is ultimately responsible for the results and that he is holding himself accountable and stepping down as GM of the Twins.

That public announcement would be identical, by the way, regardless of whether the decision truly is Ryan’s or whether Pohlad makes the decision that it’s time for a change. If you're looking for public executions, you're going to be disappointed.

If Ryan is contemplating that this may be his last season in the GM chair, he’s not likely to make a managerial change during the season. If he’s planning on being around a while longer, then yes, he could (and should) be considering whether there’s someone besides Molitor in the organization that he now believes would be a better fit to manage the new group of young players coming up.

If indeed Ryan is replaced as the General Manager, it would be much more likely that Molitor also would be replaced following the end of this season. The new GM would want, and should get, his own man to run the team he assembles.

Whether these changes in management are made or not should depend solely on whether ownership envisions the current leadership being the right people to guide the team through the next era of competitiveness.

Regardless, it is time to begin turning the page. Some of the changes can wait as things play out over the rest of this season and the subsequent offseason, but seeing names like Buxton, Kepler and Polanco consistently in the Twins’ lineup should start now.
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