PogueBear

Aaron Gleeman is the reason I've posted some of my own content on Twins Daily. Sometimes I wish the Twins would have hired him to help in the front office. His content is still the best, IMO. I can also fondly recall, back in 2006, linking to "Nick's Twins Blog" after checking the weekly update to the MLB Power Rankings.

Outright release? This isn't the NFL. Contracts are guaranteed in MLB...

Kyle Gibson is elite...when it comes to ground ball pitchers. And that's a good thing. According to Baseball Nation, a ground ball pitcher is a type of pitcher that has a tendency to induce ground balls from opposing batters. The average ground ball pitcher has a ground ball rate of at least 50% with extreme ground ball pitchers maintaining a ground ball rate of around 55%. In his brief MLB career, Gibson has consistently proven he is a top 20 pitcher at inducing ground balls. Gibson had a GB% of 54.4% in 2014 and currently has a 51.9 GB% thus far in 2015. Those numbers definitely meet Baseball Nation's definition of a ground ball pitcher. Gibson tied for 7th out of all MLB qualifying pitchers in 2014 with a 2.05 GB/FB ratio and just to prove he's consistent, he currently has a 2.00 GB/FB ratio in 2015, which put him 16th. Baseball analysts and sabermetricians prefer ground ball pitchers than those with fly ball tendencies for the simple fact that ground balls cannot immediately be turned into runs; i.e. ground balls cannot leave the ballpark. Furthermore, outcomes for ground balls are far more favorable than those of fly balls. While OBP is slightly higher for grounders than flies, the average OPS for all grounders in 2013 was .483 as compared to .834 for fly balls. Ground balls own the lowest weighted on-base average (wOBA) when compared to liners and flies, and it's not even close (.213 vs .681 and .346 for grounders compared to liners and flies, respectively). Unfortunately, Gibson will never be an ace because he doesn't strike enough batters out. Strikeouts are the most effective tool a pitcher can utilize in order to avoid big innings due to the ball not being put into play. Too much can happen on a ground ball, be it a booted play due to a "bad hop", a "seeing eye" single, or a poor throw (Chuck Knoblauch anyone?). Gibson's 3.54 K/9 ratio is the 2nd worst mark for all qualifying pitchers in 2015 and his 5.37 K/9 was 4th worst in 2014. HOWEVER, Gibson's elite ability to induce ground balls results in aggressive, strike-throwing pitching which keeps his pitch- count down, allows him to pitch deeper into games, and ultimately be an effective #2 or #3 starting pitcher for the Twins. I can handle that.

Do you want a bunch of 2012 and 2013 Aaron Hicks running around? Because that's what happens when players are rushed to the majors when they're not ready. Buxton is hitting .280 and striking out at AA. Do you want to watch the poor kid get completely overwhelmed for 4 months and perhaps completely lose his confidence? Alex Meyer has a 7+ ERA at AAA. Is that the kind of baseball you want to watch? I prefer the "punchless" Dozier, Plouffe, and Hunter for now.

I love baseball. It's the one sport where a nerd, such as myself, can get lost in the numbers and think they know something others do not. What do I (think I) know? Well, if the Twins continue to over-achieve for one or two more weeks, and then merely regress to the team everyone thinks they are...they'll be right in the thick of the Wild Card race come September. I know, I know, I'm either WAY TOO OPTIMISTIC or I'm jinxing it. And if that's the case, I should shut up right now. But just for the sake of adding another blog entry, hear me out... This winter I texted some friends that the Twins "could actually be good this year" based on the logic that the Twins returned a top 5 American League offense plus the eternally youthful Torii Hunter. Also, the pitching had added depth via Ervin Santana. We just needed a "little luck". I was immediately rebuffed and told that I'm always too optimistic about the Twins (I admittedly am). As if on cue, Santana's suspension happened. However, that luck has arrived in the form of timely RISP hitting and Mike Pelfrey. Thus, the Twins now find themselves with a +19 run differential and an expected Win-Loss record of 19-15, which is exactly the record they have YTD. They have scored 4.65 runs per game and have given up 4.09. So what happens if the Twins regress to the team that history and projected statistics say they should be? Fangraphs has them going 58-70 the rest of the way, scoring 4.21 runs per game and giving up 4.67 runs against per game, and finishing with a 77-85 record. Hey, I'll take that after 4 straight 90-loss seasons!! But what if? What if the Twins implement what I'd like to call "The Annexation of Puerto Rico" (thank you Little Giants) and continue to over-achieve for the next couple weeks?! I don't care how they do it. "The Annexation" could be Pelfrey pulling another couple quality starts out his bum or Torii Hunter continuing to defy Father Time. It doesn't matter. IF the Twins add another 3 or 4 games above .500, THEY'RE RIGHT IN IT!! The top AL teams are the Yankees, Tigers, and Royals based on YTD record and projected remaining season, according to fangraphs. Here are their projected records: 88-74, 86-76, and 84-78. Say the Twins rattle off 4 straight and get to 23-15 and then finish with the .451 winning percentage fangraphs says they should , the Twins go 81-81, a mere 3 games behind the Royals. This race is wide open. It's time to implement "The Annexation of Puerto Rico."

Conventional wisdom heading into the MLB season had the Twins' offense, which returned essentially all its key 2014 pieces plus Torii Hunter, leading the team to a slightly improved 2015, albeit in a difficult division. Beyond Hughes and Santana, the starting pitching and an "iffy" bullpen were perceived weaknesses. That script has been completely flipped as the Twins wrap up the first month of the season Thursday. After a horrendous opening series against the Tigers, Twins starters have posted a 3.51 ERA, 7 "quality starts," and a two-plus strikeout to walk ratio in 14 outings since April 10th. Contributions have come from every member of the staff. Hughes and Gibson have each tossed 2 quality starts while May, Pelfrey, and Milone each contributed one. Even "non-quality starts" have been relatively "solid," such as Pelfrey's 4/17 start when he allowed only one run over five innings and Trevor May's 4/25 performance in front of his hometown Washington crowd, when he struckout 5 before being knocked out by a line drive in the fourth inning. It's got to the point where I'm almost excited to see who's pitching. A "Who's next!?" attitude as opposed to, "Uh oh, who's next?" a 'la 2011 - 2013 (e.g. P J Walters, Cole De Vries, and Andrew Albers?) Glen Perkins and Casey Fien have also combined to be nearly "lights out" at the back of the 'pen. The offense? Not so much. As of 4/27, the Twins slash line of .226/.290/.318 had them second to last, last, and last in the American League in each category, respectively. That is vomit-inducing. Fortunately, Joe Mauer has been especially Joe Mauer-ish thus far, or things would be even uglier. Mauer has batted .299/.392/.387 which compares relatively closely to his career slash of .318/.401/.458. The youthful trio of Arcia, Santana, and Vargas, is primarily to blame for the Twins' anemic production. Their median OPS currently sits at .489. That. Is. Bad. The solution, however, is simple. Keep writing Santana, Vargas, and Arcia into the lineup while riding the current "quality" SP carousel as far as it goes. It will inevitably end. The pitching isn't "3.51 ERA" good. This is a rebuilding year. There will be growing pains. Oswaldo Arcia shot through the Twins farm system like a rocket. The guy can mash. My personal over / under Arcia 2015 HR total is 28. He's shown glimpses of his potential over parts of the past couple seasons. I would like to see what he does given a whole year in the lineup. I also want to see if Santana is the rookie we saw in 2014 or something more like his career MiLB totals. And what about Vargas? Was his 2014 September flash just Parmelee 2.0 or was it something more? You only find out by trying, which may mean prolonged periods of pain. Patience...for now.

It's another way to reinforce how unique and rare an MVP caliber player like Joe Mauer is. It also makes me feel old. I remember when Trevor Plouffe was being discussed as a prospect on the Twins blogs.

I wrote 238 words yesterday about Pelfrey's spike in velocity and the effectiveness of his sinker. If the Twins get another solid start from Pelfrey this week before Nolasco inevitably returns to the rotation, I hope TR gets on the horn and sees if he can get anything via trade. Buy low, sell high!! http://twinsdaily.com/blog/522/entry-6468-the-return-of-mike-pelfreys-arm/

May should absolutely not be sent down. Prospects and youth should always trump "experience" during a rebuild. As to your comments about Meyer, here are his AAA numbers thus far: IP: 14.2 ER: 8 BB: 14 K: 20 ERA: 4.91 If Meyer didn't have "uber prospect" associated with his name, a rationale person might say that's a pitcher with serious control problems. A walk per inning is not acceptable for a starting pitcher. You end up laboring every outing and typically get pulled by the fifth inning, if not earlier. Yes, he is still amassing strikeouts and for that reason he remains a "prospect," but he is having difficulties I would rather he work out under a "softer" spotlight.

Mike Pelfrey's arm is feeling better. Last night he pitched 7 shutout innings against the Royals as he struck out four, walked two, and gave up five hits as the Twins cruised to a 3-0 victory. That's a good result, but it doesn't necessarily indicate Pelfrey's arm is feeling better. Well, how about this factoid? Pelfrey's sinker's average velocity of 93.5 mph in 2015 is the highest it's ever been, according to fangraphs PITCHf/x velocity data. His fastball's 93.1 mph average is also the highest it's been since Pelfrey's rookie season in 2007 when it sat at 94.3 mph. I know it's a small sample size, but it's also APRIL, when temperatures are down and pitcher's arms are supposedly stiffer and less lively. So Pelfrey's velocity is up. Have his pitches been effective? So far, yes. An effective sinker induces groundballs and Pelfrey's sinker, which is Pelfrey's secondary offering (he has thrown it 20.2% of the time in 2015 compared to the fastball 64.3%) has helped to raise his groundball percentage to 61.1%, thus far. Pitches can't leave the ballpark if they're on the ground. Now before Terry Ryan goes popping champagne and breaks out another Pelfrey extension, he should remember one and a half decent starts does not make an ace. However, given Pelfrey's increased velocity and improved results, he has at least earned an extended look in the rotation. Perhaps Nolasco could suffer another timely "injury?"

"They are going to have to open the wallet..and sign free agents as position players because the Twins are so bad thats the only way for them to field a representative team." The Twins will never be the Yankees. Furthermore, if you are forced to build a team through free agency, you will fail. You will inevitably overspend on players for past performance (see 2015 Yankees and Phillies). Free agency only works as a supplement to homegrown talent. It's never the solution. "Joe Mauer one of the best players in the game is a hindrance for the team, he occupies a position that is traditionally occupied by a power hitter, sorry Joe 270 and no power makes you a liability not an asset." If Joe Mauer hits anything close to his career slash line of .318/.400/.458, he is an asset at ANY POSITION ON THE FIELD. Stop worrying about HRs and RBIs and look at Joe as a "John Olerud" rather than a "Miguel Cabrera." "When we read the minor league reports we see the Twins farm system is competitive with the other teams, the big mystery is, why doesn't it translate to the major league level?" Because the bulk of the talent is still down on the farm. We're only starting to see the first wave of prospects arrive in Arcia, Vargas, Gibson, and crew. Patience. This rebuild was set back a year last year when Sano and Buxton missed all season, but it's still on track. Keep the faith.

How about last night!? (Forgive my excitement, but we may need to celebrate smaller victories this season.) "Kyle Gibson pitched 6 2/3 innings of 1 run baseball and Oswaldo Arcia hit a 2-run homer to lead the Twins to a 3-1 victory over the undefeated Royals." Games like last night give glimpses of the future the Twins hope they are building. Let's hope we can read many more headlines with those names in the storyline. Now, onto the real point of this post... I know it's only been a week, but the Twins need to be more patient and walk A LOT more if they are to replicate their 2014 success at the plate. They scored the 5th most runs in the the American League in 2014 largely because they were patient and drew a ton of walks. Only Oakland drew more. Walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/K) is a great measure of a hitter's plate discipline and knowledge of the strike zone. Joe Mauer's career 680/664 BB/K ratio is insanely good, as a reference. It's very rare a player walks more than he strikes out. Mauer's 4/4 ratio through 8 games is a good indicator he is seeing the ball better, thus far, and Trevor Plouffe's 4/7 ratio shows that he has continued the disciplined approach he demonstrated in 2014. Danny Santana's 0/8 ratio through 7 games obviously needs to improve, especially if he is to continue batting leadoff. Santana is not going to bat above .400 on balls in play again in 2015. Surprisingly, Brian Dozier has also yet to see his first "ball 4" in 2015. Dozier's value at the plate in 2014 largely came through the walk; his .242 average was below the league median but his .345 OBP was quite nice. It's a small sample size, so I'm not concerned. But I will be if his BB/K ratio doesn't improve by the end of April. Arcia and Vargas each have identical 2/5 BB/K ratios, which is to be expected from young power hitters. They need to keep swinging hard while also drawing the occasional walk. It's only been a week, so I'm not concerned. But I hope someone in the Twins clubhouse will mention the virtue of patience to Dozier and Santana soon. "He gets on base. Do I care if it's a walk or a hit?" (Brad Pitt points at Jonah Hill) "You do not." PogueBear out. (drops mic)

Good arguments. Outfield: Hicks should be brought up ASAP. He is a far better defensive CFer than this mess and he gets on base... Hunter is gone via trade at the deadline if he's worth anything. Then Rosario can be brought up for a look. Arcia needs to be moved back to RF and given every opportunity to fail. I think Arcia has 40 HR potential if the Twins have patience. Buxton can replace Hicks come August or September. BP: Stop this gong show and bring up Pressly and Tonkin NOW. TALENT trumps experience in a rebuilding effort. ALWAYS. TR needs to figure that out.

It's appropriate that the blog post right below this is, "We Need Sano Now!"

The award for "Best Use of a Big Lebowski Reference in a TwinsDaily Blog Post" goes to... Nick Nelson Whoa!! I didn't see that coming. I thought you had that award in the bag.