nclahammer

With the Minnesota Twins on the verge of setting the all-time MLB home run record, they have gotten many great individual home run efforts from their players. Max Kepler and Nelson Cruz have paved the way with 35 and 33 long-balls while Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano are closing in on 30 homers as well. Jorge Polanco’s next dinger will allow the Twins to set the MLB record with the most players hitting at least 20 home runs at eight. Today, we will take a look at which Twins players have set career highs in home runs in 2019 and who still has a chance to do so.
 
Let’s start with the players who have already set career highs.
 
Max Kepler - 35
 
Max Kepler has taken a giant step forward this year and greatly contributed to the Twins winning ways. A big part of that has been his power surge. Kepler has already hit 35 home runs this season, surpassing his career high of 20 which he set last season. His uptake of +15 is second only to the next player we will talk about.
 
Mitch Garver - 24
 
In 2018 Mitch Garver hit seven home runs in 103 games. This year has been a completely different story as Garver has demolished the ball, hitting 24 homers in just 75 games. That’s an improvement of +17 while playing in significantly less games up to this point in the season. Like Kepler, Garver’s greatly increased production has been a big part of the Twin’s success in 2019.
 
Jorge Polanco - 19
 
Look no further than Jorge Polanco to find another young position player who has taken a huge step forward for Minnesota this year. Polanco’s overall numbers are far and away the best of his MLB career and his 19 home runs on the year surpass his previous high of 13 set in 2017.
 
Next are three more Twins players who are closing in on career highs.
 
Eddie Rosario - 27
 
Eddie Rosario has actually already tied his career high of 27 which he originally reached in 2017, so he is all but certain to set a new career high. Rosario did the bulk of his heavy lifting early in the season, hitting 17 home runs through May, but he has a good chance of reaching 30 this year as he is back in the lineup after a few days off with a hamstring injury. Rosario has tied his career high while only playing in a total of 109 games so far this season. It took him 151 games to get 27 in 2017.
 
Miguel Sano – 26
 
Like Rosario, Miguel Sano is nearly a lock to set a new career high in home runs. Sano is just two short of his career high of 28 home runs which he set in 2017. Sano will also probably get it done with less games played as he has played in 82 games so far compared to 114 in 2017. Sano has an even 13/13 split of home runs between the first and second half.
 
Ehire Adrianza – 4
 
Forget about Rosario and Sano, Ehire Adrianza’s chase for a new career high is clearly what will captivate Twins Territory down the stretch. Joking aside, Adrianza is deserving of appreciation for the great numbers he has put up in limited duty this season. Adrianza set his career high for home runs last year with six, so he will need three more dingers down the stretch to set a personal best.
 
Finally, here are the numbers for the remainder of the Twins position players (Luis Arraez is not included since this is his first season). Nelson Cruz has hit 17 homers in 33 games in the second half so he might have a chance. C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, and Jake Cave have been hot of late, but time is short and their playing time could be somewhat limited. It would take an epic home run binge for any of them to set a career high, but if there was ever a year for an epic binge, it’s 2019.
 
Player - 2019 total / Career high (year)
 
Nelson Cruz - 33 / 44 (2015)
 
C.J. Cron - 22 / 30 (2018)
 
Jonathan Schoop - 21 / 32 (2017)
 
Marwin Gonzalez - 15 / 23 (2017)
 
Jason Castro - 12 / 18 (2013)
 
Byron Buxton - 10 / 16 (2017)
 
Jake Cave - 7 / 13 (2018)
 
Whose power surge has impressed you the most in 2019? Do you think any of the last group has a chance to reach a new career high?

I started with the outfield as I look at the Twins current 25 man active roster, 40 man overall roster and the crush of players who are on the field, plus those needing to be added to the 40 man and the potential free agents, and possible trade candidates.
 
The current Major league infielders and catchers (who ocassionally move to a base):
Cron
Schoop
Polanco
Sano
Arraez
Gonzalez
Adrianza
Castro
Garver
Astudillo

Cron and Schoop are FA - do we resign them? Schoop has been terrific this past week, but his performance otherwise has been a lesson in low level excellence and high level disappearance. He just turned that around, but does that convince you to keep him? Cron has been injured a lot and yet he has produced .257 .319 .475 .794. Do we resign him? Those are the first two questions that need to be answered before going ahead.
 
More questions - is Gordon MLB ready? Can he hold up to a full season workload? Is Arraez the 2B of the future or is Polanco moving over since his glove and arm are so often questionable at SS. If Polanco is not at SS who is? Gonzalez is best left to play a little of everywhere and Adrianza had a break out season, but is it sustainable. Lewis is going to AZ, but will he be OF or IF in the future and how soon is he ready? Wander Javier is not ready and still needs to prove himself in MiLB.
 
Will Sano stay at 3B or does he replace Cron? If so, who plays third? Blankenship seems like the only prospect who actually plays 3B - is he ready?
 
Does Garver play more at 1B and if so, who catches if Castro is gone as a FA? Is it Astudillo or will we see Jeffers? Does Kiriloff go to the OF or 1B? Is Rooker even a consideration anymore? Has Larnach passed the others and does he stand in line for 1B?
 
The crystal ball is cracked - this is a mess to sort out. Not too many minor leaguers, but a few important ones. First I predict that we will let Cron go and I feel sorry for him if he is cut two years in a row after productive seasons. Injuries did him in this year. Second I have a feeling Schoop slips away too, but not as positive on this one. I do not believe in the minor leaguers pushing the current infield so I see:
1B - Sano/Garver - maybe Kiriloff by the end of the season
2B - Arraez/Gonzalves - Gordon if Arraez was a mirage this year.
SS - Polanco/Adrianza
3B - Sano/Adrianza/Gonzalves and Blankenship by season end if Sano is moved to 1B
C - Garver/Astudillo/Jeffers by midseason

What do you think? Who do you move?

Through 64 games and just shy of 250 plate appearances, he owns an .836 OPS and is batting .335. He’s never going to be a power hitter, and if he ever puts 10 balls out of the park in a single season any team would be ecstatic. What he can be though, is an ideal leadoff hitter with great average skills and elite on-base production thanks to plate discipline that’s otherworldly. He handles the bat to the point that Tony Gwynn would be proud of, and his approach at the plate in unwavering.
 
It is for those reasons that he’s played himself into the starting second basemen role when Opening Day comes knocking. Nick Gordon hasn’t yet made his major league debut, and as his chief competition, it isn’t surprising to suggest that Arraez would have a leg up. From a second base perspective alone, it’s worth wondering if that spot isn’t more circumstantial than anything else for Arraez.
 
Eventually the hope would be that Royce Lewis would make his MLB debut and take over as Minnesota’s starting shortstop. Jorge Polanco is not long for that position, even though he’s made strides this year. The arm is still questionable there, and Polanco has gone through bouts of inconsistency as he works through his throwing process. Signed to a long-term extension, Polanco isn’t like to move out of the organization any time soon, and an up-the-middle-tandem seems to be destined for Lewis and Polanco.
 
There also has always been the idea that Miguel Sano is not long for third base. Although he’s hung around the average-to-slightly-below mark this season, a body that big seems to profile more on the other corner. Thad Levine recently suggested that Minnesota doesn’t see Sano as an ideal fit at 1B presently, and they see third as an easier avenue to keeping him engaged in the action. As necessity pushes him from the spot though, they may need to re-evaluate their plans.
 
So, assuming Polanco slides over at short is filled, Arraez could find himself at the hot corner. This is all assuming the hit tool continues to play, but the position makes some sense. He’s almost always been a second basemen on the farm, and his time there has tripled the third action with the Twins. In 282 innings at second however, he owns a -6 DRS and -1.7 UZR. The 100-inning sample at 3B is incredible small, but he’s been worth 0 DRS and a -0.5 UZR. Minnesota will get plenty more data to evaluate prior to decision making time, but it’s a narrative to monitor.
 
If everything develops on an expected and linear track (which is to essentially say this won’t happen at all), then Lewis and Polanco man the middle for Minnesota by late 2020. At that point Sano could then move to 1B or DH (after Nelson Cruz is gone) and Arraez slides into the hot corner. Maybe Luis won’t continue to hit (seems unlikely) or maybe he’ll be dealt (not sure that’s probable), but second base doesn’t seem like the guaranteed long-term fit for the Venezuelan and I’m not sure there’s anything wrong with that.
 
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Reading the blogs and comments I see a lot of people looking at the outfielders and whether we should trade Rosario for starting pitching, put Jake Cave on the roster for Post Season and how to handle the surplus in the minors. September is a big audition month and a time to give some players a little rest. We have too many players who need to be added to the 40 man and not enough room. Do we trade, do we DFA, do we get rid of players already on the roster? Do we allow free agents to leave?
 
So how do we clear the surplus? As I pondered the Rosario trade idea I was struck with the fact that Eddie is a nice player, but in many ways he his not much above replacement in a league where everyone hits HRs. I see Eddie behind Buxton and Kepler, but trading requires the other teams to value your player as high as you would like them too and I do not see Eddie bringing in the SP that we dream of. Nor do I see Cave as a full time player being better than Eddie - another just above replacement performer - nice but not essential.
 
My thought is that if we want something; the player teams will value highest is Buxton. Buxton has now had 1250 big league at bats and this was his best year, but overall he has hit 237/292/706, His defense is what we really value, but he has to be on the field to provide defense.
 
April 1, 2014 Buxton put on injury list by Fort Myers, and again in Fort Myers on May 11 and July 6. July 26, 2015 on DL (Twins) thumb injury. July 15, 2017 Buxton on DL, groin injury. April 2018 on IL for migraines; May 10 broken toe and July 14 back on IL with left wrist strain. In August 2018 he was on the DL in Rochester with a left wrist injury, in June 2019 he was on the IL with a right wrist injury, July 16 on the IL with concussion symptoms, and again on July 23, concussion again, and August 3 - left shoulder subluxation.
 
He played five years in 388/810 games - 48%. How long before injuries and age remove speed and reduce him to a nice, but not great OF?
 
He is valued by us and many others - if we want a starting pitcher Byron might be the best bait. But do we have another CF? Kepler probably moves there and in two years we would be surrounded by Larnach and Kiriloff and our OF defense would not be great. I cannot see this team extending Rosario and I do not see Cave as more than a place holder. Is there a CF in the system?
 
So I see Rosario going, at least as a FA, Cave as a place holder and Buxton probably still here, but a good trade bait. I see Larnach and Kiriloff coming up, I see Rooker going somewhere else and I see Wade as never more than a fourth OF and probably playing for another team - maybe Gardy would like him in Detroit.

“Baseball is a relative sport.”

By nature we often remember the really good or really bad things, and not the okay or decent things that someone does. I bet you can vividly remember the last time you won an award, but perhaps not the last time you went to the grocery store, or who your 10th grade history teacher was.
 
It’s a core principle to how memories are formed. Those that stand out are often fueled by the emotional context the situation derives from.
 
Say me for instance, I remember when Adrian Peterson nearly clipped the 2,100 yards or when Jason Zucker beat the Blackhawks in 2013, and conversely when Blair Walsh's epic failure from 27. These were momentous occasions to me personally, and culminated milestones of jubilee and heartbreak with lots and lots of backstory.
 
Why is that such an important thing to consider when discussing the plight to Jose Berrios? It’s these disaster moments to fans in a season, where we can get way over our heads and make truly outrageous statements, and during the offseason in retrospect be like ---”Did I actually say that?”
 
He began the season on a pristine pinnacle. Logistically, Jose was exerting his mechanical best in how he was driving through his hips along with his delivery, and keeping his hands back in sync with driving those hips, which was a bad tendency he would commit in his youth.
 
 
 
 
 



You can in the video how the different the glove placement is imperative to gaining that 2 to 3 ticks in velocity to the plate. In hardcore pitching circles they call this the kinetic chain, where the components of one’s mechanics are at an equilibrium, where the joints are in a symphonic harmony, making it all a simplistic, clean, and efficiently repeatable delivery.
 
And Berrios looked really good. He proved with the results to bear, and added a new wrinkle into that much anticipated pitch mix, the changeup. In that 2019 opening unveiling we saw the changeup being fruitfully showcased 12.5% of the time, more than his total the previous season (9.1%) and the cumulative average during his very short career (10.7%).
 
He wasn’t deliberately delaying his arm speed, and everything in that start was sublime. Pristine. You could say Berrios was perhaps an “ACE” in that start had things not turned sideways and pearshaped just a handful of months later.
 
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Now fast-forward to today. Fresh or perhaps rotten from that second consecutive all-star appearance, Jose Berrios is showcasing his most agonizing and problematic struggle points of his career. He’s been hittable, hit very hard with declining velocity, and to boot; seemingly single-handedly taking baseball’s 3rd best offense (in wOBA and wRC+; .348 and 115 respectively) out of critically important games.
 
What’s even more frightening? That the strength of the opposition over the past 4 games has sported a 91 wRC+, with 100 being league average. He’s struggling mightily against bad opponents, compounded with the fact that they shouldn’t be hitting him this hard, period.
 
So far, we as all seperate pitching expert entities haven’t found the culprit to what hindering subset of pitching statistics is responsible for pruning our Johan of today, devoid of the attributes that made us reminisce of Johan, the great killer of men, sheep, and those brave enough to step into the battered boxes of right and left.
 
But jokes aside, what’s really been the inhibitor to Jose’s velocity and coincidentally his release point since his dynamic beginning?
 
Let’s zoom into one of his particular starts, this one against the Indians on June 6th as the start to our inquiry.
 
In that one start, Berrios didn’t feature the curveball that we have become expected of. He would throw a whopping 25.4% changeup, nearly double his career-total and triple his season percentage to that point. But something interesting of note lied in that changeup subgrouping.
 
In that start he would throw 27 changeups of his entire 107 pitches in those 6 strong innings. Only one ball was hit harder than 85mph, and here’s a mapping of those pitch velocities with their extensions metrics.
 
 
 
 
 



Notice anything weird? For a guy throwing from an average release point of 6.5ft away from the pitching rubber, the extensions point were remarkably scattered and the changeup release points also dropped, along with the average pitch velocity.
 
Increasing extension would typically incite would velocity, (Josh Hader’s extension would come in mind) and it’s a very peculiar trend into Jose’s portfolio.
 
If we critically analyze even more into Jose’s pitching approach, we wouldn't have anything particularly striking about his movements.
 
Berrios has a unique windup, something of another other beast where he utilizes his windup as a vehicle to increase the movement and velocity of his pitches. Whereas others use their windup as a balancing point or to find their zen, Berrios uses his windup like a stress ball where he curled himself into a ball, and breaks out of the ball in smooth rhythm to swing his front side and lurch the back end, and launch the pitch.
 
Looking at the progress he’s made since his debut, where his arms and legs need a lot of refinements, he’s made noticeable and encouraging strides. When he was young he would treat his arms and legs as separate mechanism, and he now manages to keep his core in rhythm and not out of motion with his elbows, knees, and front stridding foot.
 
So nothing abundantly different with the windup, and not that much difference in the general technique with his hand placement, etc.
 
Berrios, technically speaking hasn't changed anything with the conducting of his delivery, until Glen Perkins spoke about it during Jose’s latest start. I’m paraphrasing what Roy Smalley said during the game, but here’s what he said:
 
“This is what Glen Perkins was talking about in the pregame shows, where (Jose) coils up and then has to uncoil and gets way spun around and his arm either lags or he’s gotta really rush to catch up, and that’s what happens when you spike that curveball….. And just you’ve opened up way to quickly and your arm just whips around.”
 
“They are trying to get (Jose) to alter his mechanics a little bit, but he’s very rotational and he gets really turned around and can’t get his arm back through, so when his hips come way around behind him he coils up, and his arm has to speed up to catch up. That’s why you see so many fastballs up and into lefthanders, and spiked breaking balls.”
 
 
 
 
 



You can see that his windup is almost, where he isn’t riding with the energy generated by his windup as much and through that back heel, that the great Parker Hagemen discussed during the offseason as a foundation through building and sustaining velocity. We can see the locked back leg not pulling through, anchored and dragging his weight in a counterproductive direction. It’s slinging and stopping, preventing him from riding through that back leg and pulling in his follow through. It’s a sign of stress and unease to rip through, as young pitching are taught today to rip through with elastic bands at data driven developmental programs. You can see the lazy back leg grappling with the front side and the glove holstered to his side, almost as if he’s more location conscious then ripping the back leg through for the additional ticks of velocity he needs to be at his best.
 
This looks more like a fatigue and midseason swoon related dilemma than a mechanics dead-gone disaster, but the velocity problems and mechanical technique are very much redeemable.
 
 
 
 
 
 

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Additionally I wanted to dive into more of what’s causing the lower arm slot, and perhaps an aggravator of the lower velocity readings and the dropping of the arm slots.
 
 
 
 
 



This graphic below shows the release points of all of Jose’s pitches horizontally since the beginning of the season. I postulated the changeup he’s been throwing has played role in why the release point has waned lately, so I consulted with two acute baseball minds to at least minimally come to a conclusion.
 
 
 
 
 
 


Through some research and conspiracy thinking, changeups might play a part in cannibalizing fastball velocity. Now take with a grain of salt, but changeup reduces fastball velocity for youth pitchers, and Paul Nyman theorized that an intentionally manipulated change for sink and drop would lead to fastball velocity dropping.
 
Coupled with the fact that Jose played with the changeup in the Cleveland start I spoke of, and that his deviation of his velocities are so wide, maybe the changeup is playing with his repetiore and his mehanics. It’s certainly cause for concern given that the more he’s thrown his changeup the more his velocity as dropped.
 
So I talked with Bill Hetzel, Manager of Mechanical Analysis at Driveline and Analysis, and former pitching coach and Michael O’Neal, former pro-ball pitcher and Driveline pitching trainer, and now SIUE baseball assistant coach about the changeup possibly curtailing Jose’s potential.
 
ME: Hey Guys. I was recently diving into a pitcher (Jose Berrios), and just wanted to ask that if….. say a righthander where to increasingly lower their arm slot, which just so happened to coincide with an increase in spin rate and decrease in velocity, would you say an increase to using a changeup could be a detriment of this?
 
I look at some of the side effects of short-arming a changeup (like slinging from the side) and couldn’t find anything, but I did however find that Jose’s changeup spin rate has increased. Do you think that a lowering of the arm slot on a changeup and an increase in spin could lead to decreased velocity? Or perhaps the lowering of arm slot could increase spin in general?
 
Michael (Former MLB Player); It depends on the guy, but lowering the arm slot would help to create more sidespin on a changeup, which also would increase horizontal movement on the pitch. Jose’s arm slot might also be more natural for him which could be an increase in spin rate.
 
Bill (Driveline Pitching Analysis Expert); Unfortunately you can’t (increase spin on arm slot) when it comes to increasing spin rate. Raw spin rate that is, there is not anything definitive that has been found to increase it outside of the use of foreign substance.
 
Michael (Former MLB Player); Me personally, I have the same tendency when I try to “get on top” of my fastball. I laterally trunk-tilt more causing a higher arm slot. This also negatively impacts my spin rate. When I stay taller and don’t tilt so much (unlike what Jose has been doing), my spin rate increases and also causes my arm slot/release point to be lower on the Z axis.
 
Bill (Driveline Pitching Analysis Expert); Now increasing true spin is different. Pitchers increase true spin all the time by improving spin efficiency. In terms of a change up you ideally and in most cases want to kill or decrease spin. Most changeups, whether it is a circle change or a split type change are trying to kill total spin, kill lift on the pitch to create separation from the heater and kill velocity. I would have to look at Berrios’ pitch metrics to really tell you anything in regards to arm slot changes or spin total changes. Traditionally a change up is predominantly side spin. The spin direction or spin axis for a righty usually needs to shift in the direction of 3:00. Sometimes pitchers won’t have a good feel for how to do that so they will manipulate theirs arm action or arm slot to try to get there instead of pronating the pitch more to create that side spin. In the case of Berrios and knowing how exceptionally good Wes Johnson is with utilizing Trackman data, I’m sure Wes has him trending in the correct direction at the very least.
 
Michael (Former MLB Player); (It) Depends. A laggy arm could be possible, BUT better changeups have a fast arm speed. Also though, his changeup could play close to the 2 seam fastball, so hows his usage on the 2 seam changed?
 
So that was the end to this conversation and the article. I hope you enjoyed. As far as what I would expect the Twins to do, we saw earlier in the season when Michael Pineda’s velocity was hitting a rough patch so they placed on the DL. I could conceivably see Rocco buying some time by giving the duo of Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer a start against the lowly White Sox and Tiger on this coming road trip, and perhaps recharge the rotation (Gibson and Odorizzi velocity has been down lately). Wes Johnson in the splendid piece by Dan Hayes of the Athletic during a makeup interview of his sudden unavailability, said something of significance.
 
“We’re getting him back on his heel and trying to get him to rotate, get his chest velocity back up,” Johnson said. “It’s not just to get José to survive. We want more of the start against Chicago that he had when he was 94 mph and was dominant. Or even you go to the Miami start when his velocity was down a little bit. The pitch execution was through the roof for seven innings.
 
“Our focus isn’t to find a way just to get this guy through. We have to try to get him better every time he goes out.”
 
Which again corroborates with what Wes has done with biomechanics velocity induction. If you want to read more, I would encourage you to read this.
 
Please Follow me @Sabir

With injuries to Byron Buxton and the more recent hamstring injury to Eddie Rosario, Jake Cave has had an extended opportunity with the Minnesota Twins and has made the most of it. After hitting two home runs in the opener against the Detroit Tigers he came back in Saturday's game and hit another dinger, with a double to boot. Buxton is off to a short rehab assignment in Cedar Rapids but he could rejoin the big league club as soon as Tuesday in Chicago. Rosario’s injury is listed as day-to-day but hamstring injuries are tricky, so he could potentially land on the 10-day IL. Either way, with the way Cave has played of late the Twins will have an interesting decision to make when Rosario returns.
 
Cave was a pleasant surprise for the Minnesota in 2018, as he hit .265/.313/.473 with a wRC+ of 108 and was good for 1.3 bWAR in just 91 games. He filled in for Buxton during Buxton’s disastrous and injury-riddle 2018, spending a lot of time in center field, where he played decently but showed that he was definitely better suited for the corners. Flash forward to 2019 and Cave was slated to be the Twins fourth outfielder, but he struggled out of the gate slashing just .176/.299/.243 for a 52 wRC+ in the first half and Cave was sent down to AAA to figure things out.
 
And boy did he figure it out in Rochester. Cave hit the cover off the ball (.352/.393/.592) and since returning to the Twins, Cave hasn’t cooled a bit. Since the All-Star break, Cave has hit an unreal .417/.482/.708 for a 209 wRC+. With his second-half surge, Cave’s numbers on the year are now looking quite good as well. Cave has hit .280/.381/.464 on the year for a 125 wRC+. His on-base percentage has risen from .313 in 2018 to a very good .381 in his second season. In watching Cave, he seems to be taking much better at-bats of late, showing an ability to lay off pitches outside of the strike zone. While Cave will probably never have an elite walk rate, he has shown significant improvement in this area, going from a 5.8% walk rate in 2018 to 8.4% in 2019. He is getting better pitches to hit and hitting them hard, with a 52.6% hard hit percentage.
 
Rosario on the other hand, hadn’t looked particularly good at the plate prior to his injury. Rosario has just a 3.9% walk rate on the year and lately, even when getting into a hitter’s count, he’s been liable to put a weak swing on a pitch outside of the strike zone. On the year he has hit .282/.307/.515 for a wRC+ of 107, which is certainly respectable but not as good as Cave. Rosario started the year off with 11 home runs by the end of April but has hit just 10 in the last three months. In the second half, Rosario’s walk rate is down to an almost non-existent 2.9% with just a 93 wRC+.
 
Although Rosario and Cave have similar skill sets (hit left-handed, play aggressively, and are streaky), Cave’s ability to reach base gives him a definite advantage over Rosario. Beyond that, Cave has clearly been the hotter hitter of late and it would be really hard to take his bat out of the lineup at such a critical juncture of the season. Although Cave has not looked good defensively in center field, he is probably a better overall outfielder than Rosario. MLB Statcast measures Rosario at a -2.0 jump vs. average with 31.5 feet covered. Cave on the other hand is better than average with a 0.8 jump and 34.5 feet. Both Rosario and Cave are liable to make a few boneheaded mistakes in the field, but Cave seems more athletic overall and better able to make difficult catches.
 
Of course, Rosario has the longer track record as a major leaguer, is a fan-favorite, and has had his share of big moments in the 2019 season. Cave has slightly better career numbers but has only played 141 games in parts of two seasons. Cave also has a really high batting average on balls in play (BABIP) at .400 for the season, but he has always carried a very high BABIP in both the minors and the majors (though not quite that extreme). Part of this may be due to Cave’s ability to hit the ball hard to all fields, allowing him to beat the shift. Cave’s ability to hit the ball hard brings a lot of swing and miss as well. He is currently striking out in 31.1% of his plate appearances, so there is definitely room for improvement.
 
Now entering the final stretch of the season and caught in a tight race with Cleveland, it will be imperative for the Twins to run out the players who give them the best chance to win. We have already seen this happen with Luis Arraez taking the second base gig from Jonathan Schoop. The Twins greatest strength may be their overall depth. With players who are ineffective due to injury or other factors, such as Rosario and C.J. Cron, the Twins would be amiss not to take advantage of the depth they have and put their best nine out on the field.
 
It remains to be seen how much playing time Cave will take from Eddie Rosario this season, but Cave’s success may make Rosario more expendable in the offseason. Minnesota could dangle Rosario as part of a package to obtain starting pitching, knowing that Cave at the very least gives the team a stop-gap in left. The Twins farm system is loaded with corner outfield types who are close to big league ready in Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Brent Rooker and the MLB team will still have Marwin Gonzalez under contract in 2020. Rosario has been a valuable player for the Twins, but he seems unlikely to improve upon what he already is. With little to no plate discipline and decreasing speed with age, the Twins may be better off moving on from Rosario and getting something in return for him while they still can (Rosario becomes a free-agent in 2022). In the meantime, whether a long-term solution or not, Jake Cave has presented the Twins with a welcome problem.

Listen, Nelson Cruz earned the moniker “Boomstick” because he’s become one of the most prolific power hitters in baseball. While most nicknames are rooted in some level of fact, Mr. Boomstick may never have expected the output he’s seeing as a 39-year-old with the Minnesota Twins. The home runs continue to pile up, but he’s pulverizing the leather more than he has ever done before.
 
Plenty has been made about the baseball in play during the 2019 Major League Baseball season. It’s obvious that changes to the ball itself have been made, and we’re seeing homers at a higher rate than at any point since the PED era. For power hitters like Cruz, an already perfected ability has become that much more lethal. If we’re going to truly understand the difference though, it’s only sensible to dive into the numbers.
 
37.6%. That’s the career hard hit rate for Nelson Cruz. He didn’t become a full-time big leaguer until 2009 at the age of 28. From that point through the next eight years, he owned a hard-hit rate that fluctuated between 35-38%. As a power hitter who elevated that ball, that output would certainly be capable of sending the ball over the fence. He posted three different 40-homer seasons and compiled a tally of 262. Fighting father time, Cruz had to figure out how to expand upon the ability that had carried him thus far.
 
2016 was the last time Cruz played more than five games at a position in a season (he’ll play none in the field this year). Solely operating as a designated hitter, perfecting his craft with a wooden stick became the only goal. Maybe not coincidentally, the quality of contact also began to rise. No longer standing in the outfield for nine innings, and able to unleash effort in short bursts, Cruz touched a 40% (40.7%) hard hit rate for the first time in 2017. He then followed that up with a 42.3% hard hit rate. Continuing to elevate the ball with higher exit velocities, the homers kept coming.
 
Then 2019 happened.
 
For the Twins Cruz has posted a ridiculous 55.3% hard hit rate, a career low 36.6% ground ball rate, and turned in an asinine 34% HR/FB rate. Literally more than one-third of the time Nelson Cruz puts the ball in play, and it doesn’t touch the ground, it leaves the stadium. His hard-hit rate is nearly 5% higher than the next closest batter and he’s pacing baseball in HR/FB ratio. On Statcast’s leaderboards he owns the best Brls/PA% in the sport (13.7 with 2nd at 12.2), and trails only Aaron Judge in average exit velocity (94.5 mph).
 
Minnesota had an opening in the DH role going into this year, and they turned from an OBP centric lineup to one that could change the game on a single swing. Cruz was an ideal fit, and after turning down a shot with the Tampa Bay Rays, he landed in Minnesota on a 2yr/$26MM pact. That second season is a $12MM team option that the Twins will gladly pick up (and have Cruz on a discount from year one). It’s been one of the most successful free agent acquisitions in organization history, and the next chapters are still yet to be written.
 
At 36-years-old Nelson Cruz became a full-time designated hitter. At 39-years-old he produced what could be the best OPS of his career, a .662 SLG and what has a shot to be a new high-water mark in homers. Cruz has played in just 90 games for Minnesota (dealing with two stints of wrist issues), but his 33 dingers translate to a 59 per 162 tally. The man got older, got more specialized, and turned into a Rawlings’ greatest nightmare.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Given the depth of discussion about the differences in remaining schedule between Cleveland and the Twins, thought a visual snapshot might help put things into focus.
 
Through the games on 8/20, each team has 36 games left. This chart highlights how those games stack up by opponent while also showing how each team has performed so far.
 


 
A few notes & takeaways:
As this community is well aware, the teams have 6 games left head to head (the top row of the chart)
Similarly, both have 7 left against the White Sox going into today's game
The big advantage of course is the 17 games the Twins have vs. KC and Detroit, contrasted with just 9 for Cleveland
Both teams have a 3-gamer against Washington left, in addition to similar-ish matchups in the AL East (Boston for the Twins, Rays for Cleveland)
Cleveland makes up the 8 games the Twins have against the Central with the rest of their series with the Mets plus matchups with the Phillies and Angels

 
The Twins still have to play well, of course, but its nice to have a leg up the rest of the way home.

As analytics have crept into the game of baseball and taken a foothold as the chief form of evaluation, players from all different eras rail against the game in its current state. The game has definitely changed to cater towards the exceptional athletes that play it today, and the sport has taken notice as well. Unwritten rules have forever (and will always) be part of baseball, but there’s a certain aspect still waiting to be phased out.
 
The idea that baseball polices itself has long been one that has held weight. As the game has adapted to use slogans like “Let the kids play” and adopted rule changes at bases and the plate, it’s clear there’s an emphasis on keeping these elite athletes on the field of play. With that in mind, it’s beyond time to put an end to the retaliatory pitch.
 
In last night’s Twins and Rangers game, outfielder Jake Cave swung on a 3-0 pitch and lined a single into the outfield. It was a 13-6 game and in the top of the 9th inning. Cave immediately apologized to pitcher Shawn Kelley upon reaching first base, and he appeared to have lost track of the count. Kelley overlooked the acknowledgement and after going 3-0 to the Max Kepler, plunked him on the arm.
 
Discussion from the booth, from Roy Smalley and Dick Bremer, immediately turned to that act as retaliation for Cave’s transgression. In a game that Minnesota was blowing out Texas, he had the audacity to swing his bat. Kelley couldn’t find the zone for a second straight batter, and then quit competing to hurl a ball into the arm of the Twins centerfielder. A sport that now has rules in place to protect its players, watched as a pitcher hurled a pitch into a batter, simply because he was upset.
 
I have no problem with avoidance of the mound, looking presentable on the field, carrying yourself with a level of self-respect, or any number of lesser unwritten rules. I do have an issue with the idea that a pitcher gets to throw a projectile at a batter any time they feel scorned or upset. While wearing a pitch isn’t the end of the world, taking a 90-mph baseball to any part of your body doesn’t feel good, and can certainly open the door to a more substantial injury.
 
There’s a level of respect shown to an opponent taking one base at a time or giving away pitches in a blowout game. That’s not a necessity though and is something the winning team does to show mercy. Expecting that to be the practice, and then reacting negatively when it doesn’t take place is lunacy. Minnesota wouldn’t have been afforded the good graces of the Rangers simply striking out should they have mounted a 9th inning comeback. Deciding when the game no longer is worth playing in the middle of it is not for any one person to opine. On top of that, this instance stemmed from a guy who clearly stated his intentions and felt bad for what he considered a misstep.
 
At the end of the day it isn’t that Jake Cave got his teammate Max Kepler hit. That’s what happened, but it was the idiocy of Rangers pitcher Shawn Kelley that decided an attempt to injure an opponent was fair response to him failing at his job. The easiest way to avoid having your feelings hurt in defeat is to steer clear of situations where you cause self-embarrassment. Last night the Rangers were an abomination, and then they doubled down on that fact in how they carried out the 9th inning.
 
Hopefully the Twins find no need to keep the beanball war going tonight, but I certainly hope every dinger that leaves the park ends with a bat flip landing mere feet from the mound and the pitcher that offered it up.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Biceps Tendinitis in Pitchers Q&A
Heezy1323
 
 
A request was made by a poster for me to write a blog covering biceps tendinitis. This is actually a fairly complicated topic with quite a bit of controversy, but I’ll do my best to share some basic info that hopefully TD peeps will find interesting. There are some technical parts, so apologies for that, but I do think a basic understanding of the anatomy is helpful.
 
Question 1: What is the biceps, exactly?
 
The biceps is a muscle that we are likely all familiar with, lying in the front of the upper arm and used to perform curls and similar exercises. The word ‘biceps’ has a Latin origin meaning ‘two heads’. This describes the upper (or proximal) end of the biceps where there are two tendon attachments.
 
The first is the long head of the biceps which attaches to the labrum at the top of the socket in the shoulder. It then curves over the top of the ball (humeral head) where it exits the shoulder joint and begins its course down the front of the upper arm bone (humerus). At the front of the shoulder joint, it travels through what is called the ‘bicipital groove’ which is an area of the bone of the humerus between two bumps (called tuberosities). This groove is often the site of issues in pitchers (more on this below).
 


 
The second is the short head of the biceps, which originates from a bony projection off the shoulder blade in the front of your shoulder called the coracoid. It travels straight from here to meet up with the long head of the biceps in the upper 1/3 of the arm. There, the tendons join and form the biceps muscle.
 
 
Below this (distally), the muscle turns back into a tendon just above the elbow and a single tendon then travels down to one of the bones of your forearm (called the radius) where it attaches at a bony prominence called the radial tuberosity.


 
Question 2: How is this tendon involved in throwing?
 
This is a great question, and a subject of much debate amongst experts. The short head of the biceps likely has a relatively insignificant role in throwing. The long head (which is the one that attaches inside the shoulder joint) is much more involved in the throwing motion. When throwing at MLB speeds, the shoulder rotates at 7000 degrees per second, which is the fastest known human motion. One can imagine the stress this places on the structures that surround the shoulder.
 
Without delving into the weeds too much, it seems as though the biceps has a role in position sense of the shoulder during throwing, likely a role in stability of the shoulder joint and also helps slow down the arm after ball release.
 
At the other end of the tendon (distal), the elbow changes rapidly from a bent position to a straight position as the ball is released during a throw. In order to keep the bones of the elbow from jamming into each other at a high speed, the biceps muscle fires to slow down this elbow straightening (what we call an eccentric contraction). This allows some of the force of throwing to be dissipated by the muscle (kind of like a shock absorber).
If it seems like that is a lot of jobs for a small tendon/muscle- it’s because it is…
 
Question 3: What happens when someone gets biceps tendinitis?
 
Tendinitis is a fairly broad term and can mean a number of different things depending on the context. With respect to the biceps, a thrower can develop issues at either the upper (proximal) or lower (distal) end of the biceps. The suffix -itis means inflammation, so the general thought is that there is inflammation that develops in or around the tendon.
 
The reasons ‘why’ are heavily debated, but generally there is probably some combination of overuse/fatigue and altered mechanics or muscle imbalances that contribute. It takes a tremendous amount of efficiency of motion and coordination of muscle movements to throw a baseball in excess of 90mph, and any small abnormality can easily be compounded by the sheer number of repetitions and intensity of a typical pitcher. Over time, this can add up to cause damage to the tendon and result in inflammation and pain.
 
Arthroscopic image of normal biceps tendon (left) and inflamed biceps (right)


 
Question 4: How does the player/medical staff separate this injury from other issues that can seem very similar?
 
This can be VERY difficult. Often the player will have pain at the front of the shoulder (in cases of proximal biceps tendinitis) or just above the elbow (in distal cases). A thorough history and exam is performed in order to hone in on the likely problem area.
 
An MRI is ordered in some cases. One of the challenges with this type of issue is that in many cases, an MRI of a pitcher already has some abnormalities on it which are likely adaptive and have been present for a long time (and are not the actual cause of pain). In addition, in many cases the inflammation around the bicep isn’t something that can be clearly seen on MRI. So interpreting imaging studies can be a significant challenge.
 
Usually the exam is (in my experience) the most helpful thing in recognizing biceps tendinitis when it is present. The athlete is usually tender right in the area of the tendon, which is a helpful finding.
 
Question 5: Once a pitcher is diagnosed with biceps tendinitis, how are they treated?
 
Again, there are a lot of variables here. But presuming it is significant enough to affect the performance of the pitcher, they would typically be shut down for a period of time to prevent worsening of the condition. Anti-inflammatory medication may be used. In some cases, injections of cortisone are used to try and decrease the inflammation.
 
With the recent increases in the use of technology, video may be consulted to see if there have been subtle mechanical changes which may have contributed to the issue. Muscle strength can also be tested in various areas around the shoulder to see if weakness is contributing.
 
In essentially all cases, a rehab program will begin that is likely to include strength and flexibility components. When the pain has subsided, a return to throwing program is begun and once complete, the athlete can return to play.
A group out of Mayo Clinic (led by Dr. Chris Camp) recently did a study of pro baseball players (minor and major league) and causes of injury over a several year period. Tendinitis of the proximal biceps was actually the #4 cause of injury with an average return to play time of about 22 days.
 
Question 6: Is surgery ever needed?
 
It is quite uncommon for surgery to be needed for this issue. In fact, in Dr. Camp’s study above surgery was only required in 3% of cases of proximal biceps tendinitis. So clearly most of these cases improve with non-surgical treatment. In addition, surgery for this particular issue has a fairly poor track record and is avoided if at all possible.
 
Question 7: What can be done to prevent biceps tendinitis?
 
Great question, reader. If I knew the answer, we could likely both be millionaires given how common this injury is and the dollar figures involved when a high-priced starter or reliever is on the shelf for this reason.
 
Generally, I believe monitoring the workload of pitchers through the season, doing what you can to ensure they maintain a good off-season program and having a good line of communication with the players are all important. As video analysis and other analytic measures become more popular, my hope is that they can be incorporated into injury prevention as well.
 
Thanks for humoring me on this complex topic. Please feel free to add a request for a future subject in the comments. GO TWINS!!

Nick Nelson's excellent look at Byron Buxton and his injuries made me think about who would be a counterpart to him and his career so far and Pete Reiser immediately came to mind. Called Pistol Pete long before Pete Marinovich, he was a sensation.
 
Read this paragraph from his Wikipedia Page - "In 1941, his first season as a regular starter, Reiser helped the Dodgers win the pennant for the first time since 1920. He was a sensation that year, winning the National League batting title while leading the league in doubles, triples, runs scored and slugging percentage. He was also named a starter to the All-Star team and placed second in MVP balloting. On July 19 of the following year, Reiser crashed face-first into the outfield wall in St. Louis, trying to catch what turned out to be a game-winning inside-the-park home run by Enos Slaughter of the rival Cardinals in the bottom of the 11th inning. The loss cut the Dodgers' lead over the Cardinals to six games."
 
Reiser missed only 4 games with his concussion - we are better at recognizing the effect today - and he only batted 244 for the rest of the season dropping his average to 310.
 
Now to continue the comparison - here is another excerpt from Wiki -- "Reiser gave great effort on every play in the field, and was therefore very injury-prone. He fractured his skull running into an outfield wall on one occasion (but still made the throw back to the infield), was temporarily paralyzed on another, and was taken off the field on a stretcher a record 11 times."
 
Eleven times! Can you imagine. Today Nick gave us Buxton's injuries from the last two years.
April 18, 2018: Placed on DL due to migraines
May 20, 2018: Placed on DL due to fracture in left toe (suffered on foul ball during rehab stint)
July 14, 2018: Placed on DL at AAA due to left wrist strain (suffered swinging the bat)
August 1, 2018: Placed on DL at AAA due to lingering issues with left wrist
June 18, 2019: Placed on IL due to right wrist contusion (suffered on HBP)
July 16, 2019: Placed on IL due to concussion-like symptoms (suffered on impact with ground on diving catch)
August 3, 2019: Placed on IL due to left shoulder subluxation (suffered in collision with OF wall)
 
Pete could not change and neither can Byron. They have to play their own style. Even if destruction. Reiser went into the military in WWII and injured his should while playing army ball. He had to give up batting switch handed and he had to learn to throw with his opposite arm, but he came back!
 
SABR describes this - "Once he was chasing a fly ball and burrowed right through the thick hedge that formed the outfield wall—and down a ten-foot drainage ditch on the opposite side. He separated his shoulder and couldn’t throw. So he simply switched to a right-handed glove and threw with his left arm, as he had in Elmira in 1939."
 
He later said: "It wasn't as serious as the head injuries, but it did more to end my career. The shoulder kept popping out of place, more bone chips developed, and there was constant pain in the arm and shoulder."
 
How good was he? SABR says "At fifteen, Reiser sneaked into a St. Louis Cardinals tryout, where he out-threw and outran more than 800 other boys. He was disappointed when he returned home without a contract, but later a Cardinals scout, Charlie Barrett, visited the Reiser home and explained why they hadn't made a big deal about Pete at Sportsman’s Park. The Cardinals didn't want word leaking out to the Browns, with whom they shared the ballpark, or anyone else. The scout also admitted they’d had their eye on him since grade school. The Cardinals knew Pete wasn’t old enough to sign to a contract, so they got permission from George Reiser to hire the boy as a “chauffeur.”"
 
Now we hear a lot about Byron and how he should slow down, let balls go, but perhaps the ending of the SABR article should be heard. "by the early 1950s most teams had either installed warning tracks or at least planned to, and some stadiums were also starting to pad their walls. The first padded wall at Ebbets Field was made of cork. Given how hard Reiser hit that wall, it is doubtful anything other than modern foam cushioning would have saved him.
 
"Alas, in the heat of the moment, Pete Reiser just never could pull up and play it off the wall. Every fly ball was his to catch, and catch them all he would—or kill himself trying."
 
Byron is not Byron if he fails to chase the ball and make a full effort. We just have to hope the Twins find more padding and luck goes his way.
 
Here are some more big leaguers who suffered from injury filled careers - some very good players.
Bob Grim - injures took his career after a rookie 20 win season with the Yankees
BO Jackson - played in NFL and MLB and was a real treat till a hip injury in NFL
Herb Score was a star pitcher until Gil McDougal hit a line drive to Score's head.
Mauer and Morneau taught us about concussion.
Sandy Koufax had arthritis and elbow injuries and played with pain as long as he could
Alan Trammel missed a seasons worth of games to injuries during his 20 year career.
J R Richards was striking out batters when Ks were not common and was cut down by a stroke.
Kerry Wood and Mark Prior - just think what the cubs would have been if injuries had not ruined their careers.
Mark Fydrich had only one year to make his significant mark on baseball

You can not legislate injuries. No rules can eliminate the dangers for men who are taught to always play hard.
We just have to hope Byron is lucky and that he keeps impressing us with his speed and determination.

Hey everyone, I have been kicking around the idea of starting this blog for a while and decided to just go for it. If there is another blog like this on Twins Daily, I apologize for duplicating any content or stepping on any toes.
 
Each summer, a group of friends and I take a trip to watch the Twins play in a visiting ballpark, with the goal of seeing the Twins in all 30 MLB stadiums. I am hoping this blog can provide a space for others to share their experiences, either at the ballpark or in the cities of various teams as a reference for others, as well as a way for me to remember the trips taken with my friends.
 
I have made it to 14 ballparks outside of Minnesota to see the Twins play so far, so I have some catching up to do entry-wise. I just got back from this summer's trip to Miami, so I will try to write about that experience as my first real post while the memories are still fresh.
 
Some trips were done on tight budgets (started doing this back in college). Some trips were spread out over long weekends, and others were single-game experiences. Some summers were more memorable than others (2015 was my summer of Tommy Milone -- I went to 9 games in 4 different ballparks and Milone started 5 of the games), and some Twins teams were better than others. Through it all, my love for baseball has grown. I hope you all enjoy the future posts and comment with your experiences/recommendations as well.

On an 0-1 count in the bottom of the ninth inning, Miguel Sano crushed a 443 foot home run to help the Twins defeat the Braves 5-3 on Monday. Jake Odorizzi went six full innings and allowed just one run on a Freddie Freeman gift to the short left field porch. Trevor May was phenomenal in two innings of work, and Max Kepler blasted his 31st homer of the season. What does this win really mean?
 
1. If you did not already know, the Twins are one of the best teams in baseball.
Atlanta is in first place in the NL East with a record of 66-47 and have one of the most potent lineups in the league. Ronald Acuña Jr., Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies round out a terrifying core. This is a true World Series ready team and the Twins sat them down in game one.
 
2. The pressure is back on Cleveland
While the Twins battled, the Indians fell to Mike Minor and the Rangers by a score of 1-0. The Tribe were -170 favorites at home and their offense faltered. With Jose Berrios on the hill for Minnesota tomorrow, the heat finds the Indians once again as the division lead is back to four games.
 
3. The biggest week of the season started in the best possible way
What is better than an electrifying win against a really good squad on the Monday of your most crucial week on the home stretch? Nothing! The Twins will host the Indians later this week for four games and hope to enter with their current four game lead, or possibly more?
 
The Special Season continues, and the Twins have won their 70th game. Enjoy it, Twins fans.

If he continues on the path he was on, he will be one of the best players in baseball I know you have to give something to get something,I think this was NOT having to give up Lewis and Kiriloff, I was just getting ready to slam Twins FO, but they have indeed added valuable assets.

For weeks we’ve heard talk of the big names. Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, and Noah Syndergaard were all assets expected to be moved at the July 31 trade deadline. Because the Minnesota Twins are one of the best teams in baseball they were consistently linked to the best gets, and so too were every other major market. In the end, that trio went nowhere, but it’s in how Minnesota executed on their moves that makes the maneuvering something to get behind.
 
Without hammering out more thoughts on Sergio Romo, it’s hard to see that move as anything but a come up. I already wrote about the move when it happened over the weekend, but they turned a guy who was going to be lost during the Rule 5 draft into a strong reliever and an equal or better prospect. Knowing the goal was relief help, Derek Falvey struck early on the former Marlins close.
 
As the deadline neared on Tuesday afternoon, apprehension began to set in. Hours faded away, they turned into minutes, and the 3pm CT mark came and went. Then there was a tweet Darren Wolfson sent simply saying, “Stay tuned.” As long as deals are finalized with the league office prior to the cutoff, they go through. Having not yet been reported, Minnesota was in fact making a move.
 
All along it was thought that Smith was the San Francisco Giants reliever on his way out of town. Stringing together some victories of late however, Bruce Bochy’s club is going to make one more run and held onto their top starter and reliever. In doing this, Falvey likely pivoted to what can be argued as a better get.
 
Sam Dyson is a 31-year-old reliever with closing experience. Having familiarity with Thad Levine from his Texas days, Dyson closed out 38 games for the Rangers in 2016. This year he’s posted a 2.47 ERA 2.74 FIP 8.3 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9. He doesn’t still throw upper 90’s like earlier in his career, but he sits in the middle and doesn’t give up free bases. Under team control through next season as well, this move plays into the future.
 

 
Going into the deadline I opined that the Twins could do no worse than two relievers with a starter pushing someone to the bullpen as gravy. None of the big relief names moved and Dyson represents the best arm to switch teams. Outside of Chris Martin, who is an impending free agent, Romo likely comes in above the rest as well.
 
If you find yourself disappointed that the likes of Thor, MadBum, or Greinke won’t be in the home dugout any time soon I’d like to offer some perspective. First and foremost, neither of the first two players switched teams. The Mets asked for the most important player on the Twins roster in the middle of a season, while the Giants we’re holding a big name with declining performance back for a king’s ransom.
 
Houston did well to land Greinke, and coming in after the buzzer he certainly provided the big bang to end the day. The former Diamondbacks starter would’ve been an ideal candidate for Minnesota as adding salary is certainly an avenue they could’ve went down. He would’ve helped to solidify the rotation and also is under contract. He is 35-years-old though, and most importantly had a full no-trade clause. It was his choice where he went, and that wasn’t here.
 
Almost as what the Twins got at the deadline is what they held onto. With the big names floated for weeks, so two were prospects like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar Graterol, and Trevor Larnach. Falvey added talent in the most necessary part of the roster without giving up a single top 20 prospect. Lewin Diaz was the highest ceiling moved, and he was unquestionably buried behind some better depth. Jaylin Davis is having an incredible 2019, but it’s come out of nowhere and again is in an area of depth.
 
You want to see a team start to push chips in when a window opens, but you must be certain that it isn’t just cracked. The Astros have made waves the last two seasons now in the midst of a third straight 100 win campaign. The Cubs traded Gleyber Torres in a final piece World Series move after winning 97 games the year prior, and are now looking at a fifth straight 90 win campaign. Those types of moves are risky but were beyond substantiated.
 
Minnesota should win 100 games this year but it comes on the heels of a losing season. This core looks the part of a team that should be a Postseason and World Series contender for at least the next five seasons. They have no less than 15 players that are impact talent and will be 32-years-old or under four years from now. Rocco Baldelli’s 25-man roster is good enough right now to beat anyone in the Postseason. In 2020 and beyond, some of the additional depth can be turned into more talent, as the opportunity stays present.
 
To summarize the past few weeks that led up to a frenzied couple of hours today, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine showed poised perfection in how they handled talent acquisition. The big league club got substantially better. The farm system did not get any worse. Sustained winning is still a probable outcome and the team from Twins Territory is as dangerous as it’s ever been.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

We are within the last 24 hours before the trade deadline and the market has been quiet for basically every non-Mets team in MLB. Apparently, this has become a pattern around major league GM’s in recent memory, whether it’s the deadline or offseason free agency. The fact is, none of the contenders has done much so far. What if they don’t?
 
First of all, this is not what I assume is going to happen. I believe that, eventually, teams willing to win will make their moves. But I’m curious to see what’s going to happen if none of them actually pulls the trigger until tomorrow. Granted, 2019 has one particularity. Most teams are considerably indecisive about being sellers or buyers, as USA Today columnist Bob Nightengale tweeted on Monday:
 
https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1155904273567211521
 
Like I said, I strongly believe that contending teams will pull the trigger. But I have to say that I’m starting to be a little bit concerned if the Twins are among those teams. Don’t get me wrong, I really hope this suspicion is completely wrong. But if Derek Falvey and Thad Levine don’t bring in the stars Twins fans are hoping for, it wouldn’t be something never seen before in their regime.
 
The biggest example that comes to my mind is the last offseason. After bringing in key veterans to power the already good offense in C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop and Marwin Gonzalez, the Twins had basically one urgent matter to address: the bullpen. For us fans, it sounded crazy to think they wouldn’t sign big names in the beginning of the year, especially because they had plenty of payroll room for that.
 
We all know what happened. The Twins decided to wait and made Blake Parker their one and only big free agent signing for the bullpen. Six months later, they still have the same urgent matter to be addressed. What if they choose to approach it the same way? Chances are very little, but here are three questions I ask about this current deadline for the Twins.
 
Is this their “all in year”?
This is an important matter. Is 2019 the ultimate contending year for the Twins? Should they spend top prospects to make the team stronger for this playoff run? One can argue that it isn’t. The Twins already have one of the best young cores in baseball. And that’s talking about MLB-talent, not only about prospects. The best offense in the league has an average age of 27.7. If it wasn’t for Nelson Cruz, it would be 26.9. That’s unbelievably young.
 
Also, Fangraphs currently ranks the Twins’ farm system as the sixth best in MLB and Minnesota has five players in the Top 100 Prospects in the game. So, would it really be the worst thing in the world if they didn’t commit to winning this year’s World Series? Maybe not. Maybe trusting this young core and let them get post-season experience at this point could make a huge difference in the years to come.
 
Is this team good enough to win?
I’ll be straight here and say that I don’t think so. But some people do. In several moments, Minnesota had the best record in baseball and have solidly stayed put within the top four teams in the league. Is it crazy to assume they can pull this? Perhaps no. Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski tweeted yesterday an interesting rank of how many Wins Above Replacement (WAR) each team has outside their top four players. Guess who’s on top?
 
https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1155913288179441666
 
Bottom line, Minnesota has a damn good team. They have taken the season series against the Astros earlier in the year and made the Yankees sweat to defeat them. Also, they currently have a 29-24 record against teams with .500 or above. That’s an 88-win pace on a 162-game season. It’s hard to believe, but such inconsistent pitching staff as the Twins’ has been currently has the seventh best ERA and FIP in the game, as well as the fourth most WAR. Like I said, I don’t think this team has what it takes to win it all the way its roster is right now, but I don’t think those who believe that are being unreasonable.
 
Are there really good options?
Maybe the biggest concern for all teams considering buying in this deadline is the lack of clear options. One of the Twins main targets, Marcus Stroman, was traded to the Mets during the weekend for an unbelievably cheap price. The Mets also kind of ruled out trading Noah Syndergaard to Minnesota when they asked for Byron Buxton in return, as reported by Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III. In his opinion, “the Twins seem comfortable with their rotation”. And that probably adds up. I mean - and this is an honest question - who do you see in the league now that would represent a considerable leap in quality for the Twins rotation? Should they spend quality prospects to get players who would produce the same as their current starters?
 
When talking about the bullpen, things are clearly different when we talk about the club’s needs, but no so different when we talk about availability of options. In my opinion, the best option for Minnesota and for any team, for that matter, would be the Pirates’ Felipe Vásquez. But rumors have it that Pittsburgh is asking too much. Is he worth giving two or three top prospects for you? Besides, the Dodgers seem like frontrunners to acquire him. Kirby Yates also looks like a great fit, but the Padres appear to be in buyers mode, as they have inquired the Mets about bringing in “Thor”.
 
There are other names who could be pursuited. So far, Sergio Romo is the only addition and Cody Allen is doing work in the minors to try to earn a spot. Neither of them cost the Twins much. Maybe we should be expecting cheap signings like these two instead of big splashes. Maybe they will work. What would you do?
 
By this time tomorrow we will have our answers. Minnesota has to choose between shopping big and try to win it all this year or just modestly improve an already good team, patiently waiting for years to come and not compromising the long-term future.

Greetings, Twins Territory.
 
While watching the FSN broadcast of Tuesday's 10-inning instant classic between the Twins and Yankees, i.e. what was shaping up to be called the "Miguel Sano game" before quickly being title-hijacked as the "Aaron Hicks Revenge Game", I was dumbstruck to hear Dick Bremer call Blake Parker "the Twins' most consistent reliever lately".
 
You've gotta be kidding me, I thought. Parker makes me nervous every time he's on the mound.
And especially today, against the Yankees.
(Followed by: 5-pitch walk, line-drive double, Monster Double, strikeout, Monster Double, yielding 4 ER in 1/3 of an inning, for an ERA of ... 108.00.)
 
We all have "a feeling about a guy" from time to time, where we can't exactly quantify what we're feeling, but where something seems to be true. And therefore, with this blog, I endeavor to take those "feelings" (either mine, or yours, dear reader - feel free to submit them to me!) and provide evidence that either substantiates or refutes them.
 
I'm not a sabermetrician by any means, but as a 23-year veteran math teacher, I'm pretty good at research, tracking down data, and mental calculations.
 
So, without further ado, let's dig into whether "Blake Parker was the Twins' most consistent reliever" before he... Got Yanked:
 
Dick Bremer backed up his statement by stating that Parker hadn't given up a run in his previous 5 outings. This is true; in fact, he'd only yielded 1 ER in his previous 10 outings!
 
But let's dig a little deeper into those 5 pre-Yankees appearances:
 
July 3 @OAK: Twins win 4-3 in 12 innings. Parker enters bottom 10 (clean), pitches the 10th & 11th.
2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 35 pitches, 20 strikes (57%).
10th: Walks Chapman on 5 pitches, walks Olson on 5 pitches.
(Creates a mess: 1st & 2nd with 0 out in extra innings on the road. Leverage Index swells from 2.25 to 5.29.)
Retires Davis on FC (1st & 3rd), retires Canha on FC (Chapman out at home), strikes out Laureano.
(Cleans up the mess he created.)
11th: Yields 0-2 single to right to Grossman, immediately throws a WP allowing Grossman to advance to 2nd.
(Creates a mess: runner on 2nd with 0 out. Leverage Index swells from 2.25 to 3.81.)
Strikes out Barreto, strikes out Herrmann, gets Semien to foul out.
(Cleans up the mess he created.)
 
July 13 @CLE: Twins win 6-2. Parker enters with 2 outs bottom 7, and also pitches the 8th.
With an inherited runner on 1st, gets Luplow to foul out to end the 7th.
8th: Strikes out Lindor, Mercado flies out, strikes out Santana.
(Calms things down. Leverage Index goes from 1.83 to 0.36.)
 
July 16 vs. NYM: Twins lose 3-2. Parker enters top 8 (clean), and also pitches to 3 batters in the 9th.
8th: McNeil flies out, Conforto lines a first-pitch single to right, walks Alonso.
(Creates a mess: 1st & 2nd with 1 out. Leverage Index swells from 0.94 to 1.92.)
Garver's passed ball allows runners to advance to 2nd & 3rd. Cano then grounds into the ridiculous double play at home and 3rd created by multiple Mets baserunning gaffes.
(Rescued by Mets stupidity.)
9th: Ramos grounds out. Smith grounds out. Walks Frazier and is relieved by Magill.
 
July 19 vs. OAK: Twins lose 5-3. Parker enters top 8 (clean).
Strikes out Davis. Grossman lines a single to left. Herrmann lines into a 3-6 DP.
(Gives up some hard contact, but faces only 3 batters.)
 
July 20 vs. OAK: Twins lose 5-4. Parker enters top 8 (clean).
Grossman flies out. Herrmann lines a single to center. Strikes out Profar. Semien grounds out.
(Not bad. Leverage Index starts at 2.17 due to the Twins' narrow 4-3 lead at the time, but never exceeds 2.89.)
 
SUMMARY:
5 outings: 1 clean (CLE), 2 other low-stress (OAK x2), and 2 where Parker created a big mess almost immediately and was lucky to escape with no runs allowed (I actually count this as 3, because it happened twice in the July 3 game).
 
So on 3 out of 6 innings, Parker takes a clean situation and makes everybody nervous.
I'm guessing Rocco and crew weren't interested in any more nail-biting induced by a veteran reliever who rarely pitches a simple, clean inning, and who has a 50% chance of filling the bases right after he enters the game.
 
VERDICT: You've gotta be kidding me feeling is justified. "Twins Most Consistent Reliever" statement is not.

For weeks it's been apparent that the Minnesota Twins need bullpen help. As we've gotten closer to the trade deadline the certainty that moves would be made has only become more clear. Tonight while in the midst of a battle with the Chicago White Sox, Derek Falvey was working the phones and landed RHP Sergio Romo from the Miami Marlins.
 
Romo was a free agent this offseason and signed with Miami on a one-year, $2.5 million pact. He was someone I liked for the Twins but the front office decided to stand pat after the acquisition of Blake Parker. Romo was abysmal to start the season for Miami but has been lights out of late, and his dominant slider remains as good as it's ever been.
 
Since May 22nd Romo has pitched in 22 games going 21.2 IP. He has a 2.49 ERA and a .585 OPS against. The strikeouts have been down this year and he was at just 16/3 K/BB over that stretch, but the stuff may be as good as it's ever been. Right now he owns a whiff rate near 14% in 2019 and his 40% chase rate is a career best.
 
When you've been doing this for as long as Romo has, and without ever being a velocity pitcher, it's the offspeed stuff that must work. Sergio throws his slider nearly 60% of the time and it's continued to be an incredible offering. His slider posts an RPM of 2852 which is 9th best among sliders in baseball this season.
 
Falvey obviously had to part with an asset in trade, and choosing Lewin Diaz makes a lot of sense here. He's a 22-year-old that posted a sub-.600 OPS at Fort Myers last season. Having put in significant work to get his body right this winter, he's having a breakout campaign with 19 HRs and an OPS north of .900 split between A+/AA. That's really where the good news for the Twins and Diaz ends however.
 
Lewin would need to be added to the 40 man roster this winter or be subject to the Rule 5 draft. He went unprotected and unchosen last year, but that wasn't going to happen after the results this year. In that scenario the Twins lose him for nothing. He's a great defender at first and a nice power bat, but he's also behind at least Miguel Sano, Brent Rooker, and Alex Kirilloff for major league reps at first base in the not-so-distant future.
 
This wasn't a one for one trade either. Minnesota also got back 2018 5th round pick Chris Vallimont from the Marlins. He's pitching at Low-A currently as a starter and the righty has been a high strikeout, low walk hurler in his young pro career. He too is 22-years-old but is not subject to 40 man necessity yet and gives the Twins depth on the mound, where they need it more. Reports have also suggested Minnesota picks up a PTBNL in the deal.
 
It would be hard to see a Diaz for Vallimont swap as anything but a win for Minnesota. They get a more usable asset and the expiration date is pushed out. If the assumption was that Diaz could be packaged to net a bigger return that's one thing, but you'd have to imagine Falvey explored those options as well. This isn't going to be the Twins only move, and probably not even their only move for the pen. As a first deal though, they smashed this one out of the park.
 
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Arguably the most exciting game the Minnesota Twins have played in nearly a decade, the home team dropped a 14-12 affair last night (err this morning) at Target Field. It’s in these last few games against the Oakland Athletics and New York Yankees that two very real truths have been exposed. For the duration of 2019 it will be how each storyline unfolds that ultimately determines the fate of the season.
 
First and foremost, the Twins are good and can hang with anyone in baseball. There was a narrative earlier this year that Rocco Baldelli’s club was only beating bad teams. While “teams with a .500 record” is an inexact science given the fluidity of records, Minnesota is playing at something like a 90-win pace against other teams in or around Postseason contention. Yes, they’ve beat up on bottom feeders, but they’ve also more than held their own against stiff competition.
 
As of today, both the Yankees and Athletics are slotted into American League Postseason positions. The Twins split their four-game series with Oakland posting an even run differential over the set. In five games against New York, Minnesota owns a 2-3 record and has come up just two runs short of an even run differential. With a rubber match game looming tonight, this split could get even tighter.
 
In winning games against good teams it’s been the offense that has gotten the job done. Although the lineup has slumped from the blistering pace it started 2019 on the Bomba Squad is still pounding extra-base hits at a healthy clip. Over the course of a full 162 game schedule this collection is far too good to stay down for long. As pitching, both starting and relief, regresses towards statistical parallels it’s the bats that should be expected for a continued rebound.
 
On the mound we’ve seen a confirmation of what we already know. In the past week Minnesota’s bullpen has blown late leads on no less than four occasions. Cody Stashak worked important innings during his MLB debut last night, and Lewis Thorpe was there the night before. Kohl Stewart was tasked with keeping a big game tied in the 10th, and any number of arms have been called upon from the Rochester pipeline.
 
Derek Falvey knows full well that he needs to get this team relief help. Rocco Baldelli is playing Russian Roulette on a nightly basis, and the result continues to be Band-Aids on a bullet wound. The front office can’t afford to skimp on an ok veteran in the pen, this roster needs difference makers. While the long-term vision remains important, wasting a team and opportunity this good by making a safe move can’t be the plan of action.
 
We’re on a collision course with two pivotal points in the Minnesota schedule. A week from now the trade deadline rears its head, and in just a few days the opposition gets incredibly light. Minnesota knows how this book has begun, but it’s on them to write the final chapters.
 
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Every single time the New York Yankees square off against the Minnesota Twins you hear the statistics. Minnesota has been dominated by the Evil Empire. Ron Gardenhire’s division winning teams consistently found their season cut short by Yankees lineups. Whether at Target Field or the Metrodome, Twins fans have long looked at these series and circled them to highlight impending doom. Now leading the AL Central, I can all but assure you that when the Yankees filter into the opposing dugout this evening the number of Twins players caring about historical relevance will be zero.
 
Two years ago, a Paul Molitor Twins squad popped up out of nowhere to win 85 games. Not much was expected from that group and grabbing the Wild Card spot was a surprise to plenty within the organization. Jumping out to a 3-0 lead after their first at bats the Twins quickly gave back the runs only for the dust to settle with an 8-4 defeat. That starting lineup included just four regular starters from this current squad. The leadoff batter moved to the National League while the number two batter has retired to his couch.
 
It’s in the turnover that this discussion of history really goes to die.
 
Rocco Baldelli currently manages a very good Minnesota Twins squad. They lead the majors in longballs, have pitched above their heads for over half the season, and even with a slight downtick in production, employ the third best offense in the sport. All those things are factually true right now, today. C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, and Marwin Gonzalez have never faced the Yankees in a Twins uniform. Each of those players are directly responsible for the great season Minnesota is having and that impact will be felt much more than the numbers Justin Morneau or Michael Cuddyer compiled against New York.
 
If there’s a significance in this series, it’s that the two teams are good and playing against good opponents should provide somewhat of a measuring stick for a club. The Yankees have taken over the title of best record in the American League and having won five of their last six contests. Aaron Boone’s team hasn’t been on the road since the All-Star Break, but they do own a solid 26-17 record away from Yankees Stadium. Minnesota is an even 30-19 both at home and away, but having dropped the series 1-2 in the Bronx, will look to at least end the season total with a split.
 
There’s also a get right opportunity here for the Twins in that the Yankees employ just the 13th ranked starting unit in baseball. New York has scheduled two lefties in the matchup and that plays into the hands of the righty bombers for the Twins. Producing a full run less per game over the past couple of months, favorable pitching matchups should be something this group salivates over.
 
At the end of the day this series is a big one for both clubs. Each of these teams is looking to improve their positioning for the stretch run, and they’ll be looking to notch quality wins against quality competition. Call the Twins and underdog if you’d like, but no one on either side of this matchup is worried about what has taken place in previous years. Minnesota has tracked towards one of the best teams in organization history, and while that’s uncharted waters on its own, so is the writing of their story against the club leading the AL East.
 
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Quick, without looking, tell me the #3 starter for the Minnesota Twins in 2016. Having trouble coming up with the answer off the top of your head? Join the club. Well, let me enlighten you and just provide you with the answer. It’s Tyler Duffey. Yes, the same Tyler Duffey was is now emerging as one of the better right-handed options out of the bullpen. That Tyler Duffey.
 
The fact that Tyler Duffey was the #3 starter for the Twins is a good example as to why the season turned out the way it did. The 2016 Minnesota Twins starting rotation, with its absolutely awful ERA (and results) is one of the worst aspects to an already terrible season.
 
Save for some starts by Pat Dean, Phil Hughes, and Hector Santiago, let’s look at the top 6 starters in terms of games started for the 2016 Twins and delve into their seasons.
 
*Warning: the following analysis is extremely distressing and it may horrify some readers.
 
With that said, here is an in-depth look at the 2016 Minnesota Twins starting rotation. Here we go:
 
Ervin Santana-30 games
 
Ervin Santana is undoubtedly the lone highlight of a terrible 2016 Twins rotation. Santana led the team with a respectable 3.38 ERA. To put that in context, today in 2019 both Jake Odorizzi and Jose Berrios better that with a 3.06 and 3.10 ERA respectively. Additionally, Kyle Gibson hovers just over Santana’s 2016 mark with a 4.03 ERA. That’s three starters who are as good or better than the #1 Twins starter in 2016.
 
Throughout the season, Santana averaged an okay-ish 7.4 strikeouts per 9 innings. That’s not terrible, but it’s certainly not fantastic. For context, today Jose Berrios and Martin Perez have the lowest strikeouts per 9 innings at 8.1 strikeouts. For Santana to lead the team in 2016 with 7.4 strikeouts per 9 innings leaves much to be desired.
 
Perhaps most surprisingly, for as terrible as that Twins team was, Santana had a WHIP of 1.219. While that certainly did not cause Santana to be vaulted into the Cy Young conversation, that is decent enough to cement his role as the #1 starter.
 
Tyler Duffey-26 games
 
It is shocking that Tyler Duffey started 26 games for the Twins given the stats he put up every five days. Let me run some number by you that we will delve into here shortly. 6.43 ERA. 0 wins lost. It should sadden Twins fans that a pitcher with these kinds of stats could be the #2 starter. Yet, here we are diving into Tyler Duffey’s 2016 season.
In 2016, Duffey had a 6.43 ERA. Let me say that again for those of you who didn’t quite catch that. A 6.43 ERA over 26 starts. A starter with a 6.43 ERA should not be allowed to start 16 games, much less 26 games. There’s not much to explain here other than to say again that Tyler Duffey was the Twins #2 starter and he had a 6.43 ERA. Yeeeesh.
 
A second compelling stat is that in 2016 Tyler Duffey had 0 wins lost. That is to say, when Duffey left the game and was in line for a win, the bullpen never blew the lead. Or, another way to say that is all of Duffey’s 12 losses are entirely his fault. To lose 12 games and have them all be your fault is not great. Now, I do recognize that he may have had some poor run support during those losses. But the 6.43 ERA does little to support that argument. Either way, Duffey is not the ideal candidate to be the #2 starter for a Major League baseball club.
 
Kyle Gibson-25 games
 
Ahhh Kyle Gibson. Where do I even begin? Gibson has been one of the most divisive Twins player of the last several seasons. Some fans hate him. Some fans believe in him and refuse to give up. Whatever side of the fence that you fall on, it is undeniable that Gibson was less than stellar for the Twins in 2016.
 
Gibson’s 5.07 ERA, coupled with his 1.2 hits per inning, equate into a sub-par season. While a 5.07 ERA is typical of Twins starters in the past 8 seasons, it is the 1.2 hits per inning that is particularly concerning. It is nearly impossible to win games consistently when you give up over a hit per inning.
 
These nonstop hits led to his high ERA, as well as contributed to his 6-11 record. Even though wins and losses do not mean much today, it is still an indicator of how a pitcher’s overall season is going.
 
Thankfully, Gibson has seemingly been able to turn it around recently, which is seen in his 4.03 ERA in 2019. While that is certainly not at an All-Star level, Gibson has managed to shave an entire run off of his ERA.
 
Ricky Nolasco-21 games
 
Ricky Nolasco. The Nolasco Fiasco. Seen largely as a bust and a waste of money for the Twins, Nolasco was the Twins big offseason signing of 2013-2014. Traded in the middle of 2016, Nolasco ended his Twins career with a very forgettable 2016 season.
 
Nolasco, who threw 124.2 innings with a 5.13 ERA, had the second to worst winning percentage among starters. Yet, he was due to make $12 million before being traded to the Angels. The quality of starts that Nolasco gave the Twins day in and day out caused them to lose more games than win.
 
With the trade of Nolasco to the Angels, the Twins got rid of both his awful starts, as well as the majority of his salary. While Nolasco is just a piece of the puzzle, his presence is indicative of why the 2016 Twins season was so terrible. A team that is competitive every day does not send Ricky Nolasco to the mound every five days, and that’s exactly what the Minnesota Twins did.
 
Jose Berrios-14 games
 
Jose Berrios, the Twins highly anticipated pitching phenom coming into the 2016 season, made his debut on April 27, 2016 and got rocked by Cleveland. Berrios threw 4.0 innings while giving up 6 hits, 5 earned runs, striking out 5, and walking 2. This kind of start summarizes Berrios’ overall 2016 season.
 
Berrios had an extremely difficult 2016 season. In his 14 starts, Berrios pitched himself to an 8.02 ERA. He had a 49/35 strikeout to walk ratio. Additionally, he only pitched 58.1 innings in those 14 starts. No matter which way you look at it, those numbers are truly terrible.
 
Similar to Gibson earlier, Berrios has improved beyond his 2016 numbers. However, Berrios has shown tremendous growth while Gibson has only marginally improved enough to where he is a respected starter while Berrios is seen as the teams ace today. Berrios’ rough debut season did not cause the Twins to lose 103 games. However, he certainly did not help matters much.
 
Tommy Milone-12 games
 
Tommy Milone, the only left-hander on our list, is one of the typical starters that Twins fans think of when they are forced to remember the dark years of 2011-2016. Not terrible enough to ever warrant a DFA but not good enough to be offered an extension, Milone is the last of the bunch of our terrible Twins starters.
 
Just like everyone else, Milone sported a 5.71 ERA and was completely forgettable in an already forgettable Twins season. It’s sad when a staple of the Twins rotation has an ERA well over 5 and he is not even the worst of the bunch. This feeling of absolute meh among the Twins starters is typical of Twins teams of the last decade.
 
Finally, Milone had a 1.529 FIP for the 2016 season. Considering that Santana had a WHIP 1.219, Milone’s 1.529 mark is terrible. Allowing 1.529 hits/walks per inning is how you give up runs and lose games.
 
Final Thoughts
 
The 2016 Minnesota Twins had a truly terrible group of starting pitchers. Anchored by Ervin Santana, the lone bright spot for the Twins, the starters greatly contributed to the dismal 2016 season.
 
The bullpen and the offense did not help improve the season’s results one bit. Later in the series, we will examine the numbers behind those two groups and look at how they helped cause the downfall of the 2016 Twins.
 
In the end, the starting rotation is one of the most important aspects of any good baseball team. The 2016 starting rotation was not good. And neither were the Twins. Ultimately, this group of rag-tag starters is what sparked the dumpster fire that is the 2016 Minnesota Twins.

I attended dozens of Twins games every year in the mid-90's as a kid. I sat through lineups composed of Otis Nixon, Butch Huskey, Midre Cummings and Rich Becker. I watched rotations that featured Scott Aldred, Bob Tewksbury and Rich Robertson.
 
Then, the 2000's happened. On one hand, it was very fun to see the Twins consistently contend for the playoffs and win 85-95 games every year. But the team never went out and traded for that one missing piece that would get them over the top and make them legitimate World Series contenders.
 
In the Metrodome years, it was understandable that they would be hesitant to take on contracts like those. The revenue streams were not there to support a $125 million payroll. Fine, so be it.
 
Then Target Field opened and fans were treated to what seemed to be a magical 2010 season. They had everything but a true #1 starter. Rumors flew around at the deadline, with names like Cliff Lee being floated as possibilities for the team to acquire at the deadline. We got Matt Capps, and were promptly swept by the Yankees in the first round.
 
Then, this time as a season ticket holder, I got to watch such studs as Darin Mastroianni, Chris Parmelee and Doug Bernier at the plate, while Mike Pelfrey, Sam Deduno and Scott Diamond "pitched" during the 2011-2018 seasons.
 
Meanwhile, the Twins raked in the money with revenue from the new ballpark and a new TV contract.
 
So forgive me if my patience has worn thin, and I am not content to just "enjoy the ride." I have been a loyal, money-paying, tv-watching, jersey-wearing fan for 35 years. It's time for the ownership to reward me, and the others who have been through the same thing, by unlocking the money bin and making some serious moves to become an actual World Series contender, not just a division crown contender.
 
I think the Twins need upgrades in the rotation and the bullpen. The team has the money and the prospects to get it done, right now. I personally don't give a crap if Trevor Larnach turns out to be a 10 time all star after he is traded if he brings back a player that can help the team win right now. Think of Shields/Davis coming to the Royals for Wil Meyers. Do any Royals fans really care if Meyers becomes a Hall of Famer after they traded him? I doubt it.
 
Don't think Madison Bumgarner is an upgrade over Kyle Gibson? Great. I can respectfully disagree with your opinion. However, calling fans who would like a trade "barbarians" (as Reusse did today) or talking down to people who aren't content to stand pat and see what happens, is just so frustrating.
 
It's great if you are fine to let the Pohlads rake in the dough and try to back their way into titles, that's your prerogative. I just think the narrative of fans who would like to see moves made being idiots, or bad fans, is growing tiresome.
 
Despite what Patrick Reusse, Jim Souhan or even commenters here might say, I personally think it's okay for fans to want more. We have waited long enough, and some of us aren't content with division championships.

Each year Topps goes outside of the baseball realm with the Allen & Ginter product line. Yes, it’s still a baseball card set, but the product explores avenues off the diamond as well. Ranging from standard base cards to mini tobacco type offerings, there’s a little something for everyone here. Allen & Ginter has long had a unique following and give the consistent non-baseball inclusions that shouldn’t change any time soon.
 
From a collecting standpoint baseball cards are generally about the big-name stars. In Ginter it’s always interesting to see what random offering pops up as a chase card. A year ago, there was a cryptocurrency depiction that saw base cards jump well over the expected value point, and the market explosion didn’t take place until months after the product release. Movie stars, presidents, and plenty of other big names will be found in this product as well.
 
What’s great for Twins fans is that Minnesota is well represented this season. Let’s look at everything there is to go after.
 
Base
 
The Twins lands eight subjects on the base checklist. Continuing to emerge as a popular figure in the hobby this year Torii Hunter has a card here. Willians Astudillo lands another rookie card, and teammates Jose Berrios, Eddie Rosario, and Byron Buxton join him. The trio of retired stars include Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, and Harmon Killebrew. You can also find parallel versions of some base subjects among the mini, cloth, metal, and newly introduced stained glass checklists.
 
Inserts
 
Traditional inserts aren’t the highlight of Ginter as much as the obscure non-baseball offerings are. That said Carew is noted as both a “Baseball Star” and “Ginter Great.” Killebrew lumps in to the Ginter Greats checklist as well. Those three are the only traditional insert cards Minnesota places in the product.
 
Hits
 
Minis are the name of the game in Ginter. Whether it be relics, framed cards, or autographs the tobacco craze is high and mighty in this product. Eddie Rosario is the Twins lone signing among the framed mini checklist. Lending their signature to 20 total book cards, Berrios and Hunter are present. Berrios is the only relic subject, while the elusive Rip Cards feature the likeness of Carew and Killebrew (with a more limited dual offering as well).
 
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With the trade deadline quickly approaching Twins fans are rightly focused on adding pitching to the major league roster. The offensive is still on a record setting home run pace and has great major and minor league depth, so any offensive additions would be superfluous. However, the Twins may be able to add by subtraction.
 
Jonathan Schoop may have been the least significant off season offense upgrade the Twins added due to the savvy additions of Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzales. However, the front office still had high hopes for Schoop who was signed on a one year deal. Schoop, of course was an all-star in 2017, when he had a career year with Baltimore slashing .293/.338/.503 for an OPS of .841. He mashed 32 long balls and 105 RBI in a 160 games. Schoop came crashing back down to earth in 2018 with and ugly .682 OPS between Baltimore and Milwaukee. While Falvey and company many have been dreaming of a return to 2017, it certainly wasn’t out of the question to expect something closer to Schoop's career averages.
 
And to be fair to Schoop this is what he has done. He is currently slashing .256/.305/.458 for an OPS of .763 while playing slightly above average second base. This is even slightly better than Schoop’s career averages. He has been good for 1.5 Bref WAR and by all accounts is a beloved member in the clubhouse. However, while Schoop looked like his former 2017 self coming out of the gate (OPS of .819 through May 31), more recently he has looked like the Schoop of 2018 (OPS of .672 since June 1). More frustrating to fans, Schoop seems to excel in blowout games (how many garbage time HRs has he hit?) while consistently striking out in “clutch” situations. The numbers seem to back up the eye as Schoop is hitting .163/.230/.438 with RISP and .205/.279/.231 in late inning pressure situations. The problem is with a lineup full of power hitters, Schoop becomes a bit redundant, and more importantly the Twins have better options for second base. Plenty of them as it turns out. Let’s take a look.
 
All Arraez
 
Luis Arraez has been nothing short of amazing in his first big league stint. He is currently slashing .385/.444/.510 for an OPS of .955. In 29 games he has already accumulated 1.1 Bref WAR. Arraez is obviously playing a bit over his head right now, but he has been a good hitter throughout his minor league career and between AA-AAA this year he hit .344/.409/.401. He is not going to hit .400 or slug over .500 long term but his plate approach is very refreshing. On a team of free swingers and power hitters Arraez looks like a nice table setter and in his short time with the twins has come up with several “clutch” hits. His rather twitchy batting style is also extremely entertaining to watch. Arraez has played all over the field for the Twins, including third base, short stop, and left field, but he is clearly best suited for second base where he has spent the majority of his minor league career. Arraez is firmly implanted as the front runner for second base next year and it is also becoming increasingly apparent that he is the answer now.
 
The Others
 
Both Marwin Gonzales and Ehire Adrianza currently appear to be better options than Schoop at second base as well. A large part of the value in both of these players is their versatility, so sticking Arraez at second clearly makes the most sense. However, were something to happen to Arraez both of these players are more than capable of filling in. Both players started the year ice cold so their stats took a bit of a dip because of this (pretty much the opposite of Schoop). Gonzales currently has an OPS of .748 with a 1.9 Bref War and Adrianza has a .788 OPS with a 1.1 Bref War in only 148 plate appearances. If one of them were to fill in at second for Schoop (or Arraez) the other would still be available for the utility role.
 
What to do with Schoop?
 
Cutting Schoop is probably ill advised. Although it would give more at bats to the previously mention trio, Schoop has played well enough that cutting him wouldn’t really make sense. Could he be traded for pitching? This is very unlikely as he is on a one-year deal and the Twins will most likely be trading with non-contenders who are uninterested in a rental. There are, however, a couple of long-shot possibilities. One would be a three-way trade with Schoop going to another contender (presumably because of an injuring to the team’s second baseman) and a pitcher from the third non-contending club coming to the twins. Another possibility could be Schoop being a thrown-in to offshoot an incoming player’s salary (similar to the Twins acquiring Logan Forsythe from the Dodgers in the Dozier trade). Again, this is unlikely.
 
The best course of action is probably just to keep Schoop and relegate him to a bench role with less and less playing time. He could occasionally fill in against lefties and seems like the ideal guy to have around the clubhouse (assuming he doesn’t become bitter about his decreased roll). He would also be a valuable depth piece as we have seen how hard injuries can hit.
 
What do you think? Should Schoop be our starting second baseman, a role player, or be removed from the team all together?

Edit to note: the tables are now fixed, I believe.
 
Fans, we are a demanding bunch! We want fixes now, and we want them cheap, so our favorite teams can do more fixing. I maybe spend too much time on Twins Daily, and I post a lot. That makes me wrong a lot……or maybe I’m just not all that good at this baseball thing, who knows. One of the main things being discussed right now is that the Twins should add some pitching, and I’ve been wondering just how realistic that is.
 
What does it cost to get pitching? What kind of pitchers are actually traded before the deadline? When are they traded?
 
Basically, in this series of blogs, I want to know what seems realistic in terms of trades, because I’d rather be informed when posting than not. Because baseball seems to have changed, I’ll be using data from 2013 on.
First up in the analysis? So, how soon can we realistically expect trades in MLB?
 
We’ll be looking at trades in June and July to see when players change hands, and the kinds of players that change teams. Given that the August deadline has gone away, we will be ignoring those trades, which admittedly may or may not change how one views the analysis…….
 
June 1-15
 
There isn’t much action in the first two weeks of June involving major league players.
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
2
1
1
0


2014
1
0
1
1*


2015
3
3
2
1


2016
2
0
3
1


2017
2
1
1
1


2018
1
0
1
1


2019
2
1
2
1


Total[td15][/td]

6
11
6
[/table]
 
The MLB hitter and pitcher columns show the number of major league players involved. Impact trades could be either the major league player was good the year of the deal and/or after the deal, or one or more the minor league players is/was. Good is subjective, but I’m going for more than 1 fWAR in any given year as the litmus test.
 
Not surprisingly, there just aren’t that many trades in the first half of June. Teams aren’t sure if they are in or out of the race, and those that are sure aren’t certain what they really need yet. More importantly, most articles and analyses on the internet indicate that teams wait until later to deal, in hopes of having more leverage (and getting a better deal). This aligns well with options theory, but we’ll have to do more analysis to see if waiting works or not.
 
*In 2014, Manny Pina was traded. He was not a major league player at the time, so he doesn’t appear in the table above. But, he was pretty good for Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018.
 
Mark Trumbo was part of a deal in 2015. He put up decent numbers after the trade, then a good season in the next year. Now? Not so much. But, he put up half a fWAR after the deal, and 2.2 in 2016. The other side of that deal? Welington Castillo went to Arizona. He was good that year, and in 2016 and 2017. Luckily for Twins fans, he’s not been as good in Chicago! Dominic Leone also went to AZ. He had one good year, but it wasn’t for them…..
 
Chris Coghlan was traded in 2016, back to the Cubs. He put up .9 fWAR after the deal, but was hitless in 9 post season at bats. He fell off a cliff after that year. The player traded for him played parts of two seasons, and has bounced around the minors.
 
2017 saw a name that might be in trade talks again in 2019 move in early June….Sam Dyson. He and cash were dealt for a player that is currently 26 and in AAA. Dyson has been good, but not great, though this year he has put up .5 fWAR in half a season. His traditional numbers are more impressive, probably, than his WAR would show…..Why was he so cheap? He was awful in Texas. Did his current team fix something, or is it the park/league?
 
Last year? One reason C. J. Cron was available this off season is that Tampa traded for Ji-Man Choi in early June of 2018. They got him for cash and Brad Miller. I bet Milwaukee would like to have that trade back…….
 
Edwin Encarcion was recently traded for a minor leaguer, but mostly because the Yankees absorbed a good chunk of EE’s salary. The Mariners are all in on the all-important financial flexibility thing right now….
 
I’m actually surprised that six years in a row there were some impactful major league players traded. Now, not one of those had been consistently good, but it does show that some good players move in early June. Not many of those were pitchers, btw.
 
 
June 16-30
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
5
0
5
3


2014
2
2
1
1


2015
3
1*
2
0


2016
3
1
2
1


2017
3
0
4
0


2018
2
0
2
1


2019
0
0
0
0


Total
18
[4
16
6
[/table]
 
In 2013, Colin McHugh was traded (not to the Astros) and he became quite good with the Astros. But, it was not an impactful deal for either team involved in the deal. He is an impactful player in the deal, so it counts. Eric Thames was also dealt that year, and put up a couple decent years after that. No one else in those five deals has done much, though Colin Cowgil managed to barely clear the 1 fWAR line in 2014…..so three impactful players were dealt that year!
 
2014 saw a rare pitcher for pitcher trade. One of them just cleared 1 fWAR the following year, but neither did anything much. Neither did the hitter traded that year. Really, calling 1 year of fWAR impactful seems like maybe too low a bar…….I’d call it almost useful for 1 year, but barely.
 
In 2015 AZ sent the injured *Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint to Atlanta for a guy. Touki could be a real piece for Atlanta. This was clearly a salary dump situation, where Atlanta basically bought Toussaint for Arroyo’s contract. So far, though, he’s not produced even one half WAR, so maybe not.
 
Chris Paddack and Fernando Rodney were traded for each other (so maybe pitcher for pitcher trades aren't rare?) in 2016. This looks like a great trade for the Padres for sure. Rodney, of course, has been ok to effective after that but was terrible in Miami. I’m still trying to figure out what Miami was doing…..No other trade that year mattered, unless you still pine for Oswaldo Arcia….
 
There were no interesting trades in 2017 in the second half of June.
 
Steve Pearce was quite good last year for Boston. He was traded for an ok AA player. The other trade last year was not all that interesting.
 
This year? Well….there were zero trades in the second half of June.
 
So, the second half of June saw one really good player change hands, plus Steve Pearce who was quite good last year for Boston. Other than that, not many players/trades mattered all that much. It’s an odd coincidence that there were six trades that cleared the approximately 1 fWAR barrier in both parts of June, but it’s just a coincidence.
 
What did we learn?
 
That depends on what you already knew, I guess……But here’s a summary of what I learned!
 
Some good players have been traded in June. Most of those involved salary dumps, or odd decisions by poorly run teams (Miami, for example). There just are not many trades in June at all, and most of them amount to nothing much. It’s hard to criticize any team for not making deals before July, given this data. The best players were either picked up in salary dumps, or were near MLB ready minor league players (admittedly, those in the lower minors have not had a chance to do much yet. That said, in a quick glance, none look like big time prospects either).
 
In other words, I'm not surprised nothing has happened much this year, given what has happened in recent history.
 
In the next post, we’ll look at the first three weeks of July…..