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We have talked about the scenario the Twins will be in once Sano and his rehab stint come to an end. Well that time has come.
There is clearly only one move. But before we go there, lets take a quick look at why it is the only clear choice.
MOVE SANO?: We could just DFA Sano. There is no way this happens his "potential" is still just too teasing.  We will also not trade Sano, as his trade value is absolutely rock bottom. No contending team will roll the dice on him if it means giving up anything from there system. no rebuilding team will take on the large team option for next year. So Sano is going nowhere.
lets look positionally...
1B:  Arraez is an All Star and a spark plug Where else is he going to get consistent AB? wont be SS (Correa) 2B (Polanco) or 3B (Urshela/Miranda). He is not going to the OF. so 1B it is. He is controlled for 3 more seasons and a potential batting champ. You also do not trade a player like this.  Kirilloff hid platoon mate is also now hitting well. Kirilloff has options, but with all of the up and downs of Kirilloff's young career you do nto throw him back down when he is finally starting to hit well.
 
NOTE>>> AS typing Kepler just came out of the game after a HBP on the foot... could this change everything??? well see, but lets continue as is...
DH: This is a platoon/rest position for the Twins.  Buxton just got PRP injection, and will have had nearly 2 weeks of rest (with an All Star appearance in teh middle) so maybe he comes back and will be able ot play more in the field down the stretch, but as of now he will be DH at least 1 out of every 3 games. Then there are AB's for Miranda,  and of course as mentioned above both Arraez and Kiriloff BOTH cant play 1B at the same time. SO where does Sano fit in here?
OF:  Outfield would be a natural area to move Kiriloff to free up some ABs, but who do you move? Kepler (assuming no foot/toe injury) is not going to get moved. Buxton??  to reference a borderline good movie that I still haven't figured out just how good it is or isnt... NOPE.  That leaves Gordon.  Gordon is out of options so you risk losing him by trying to send him down. Gordon has clearly played well enough to not risk losing. I see him as a piece of the future.  As far as starters go there is no room at the inn.
3B: the final position that could be ancilarily (is that a word?) impacted. and the only move that makes sense. Ursehla is the only one now mentioned who would be the most expendable. Yes he is still ARB eligible, but he is not a part of the core future Twins. He would not command a strong return, but maybe getting "just enough" back makes sense. Miranda can slide in at 3B. this now leaves Arraez, Kirilloff, Sano in a 3 way rotation between 1B/DH.
Of course all of this becomes moot, or at least delayed should say Kepler have a broken toe that requires a DL stint. then Kiriloff moves to OF opening the spot for Sano.
 
So how moveable is Urshela?
He would upgrade the Mets 3B (apologies to Escobar who I love).
Urshela = .261/.307/.408
Escobar = .219/.273/.388  
How about a Urshela for Thomas Szapucki deal straight up?
He could be a nice addition back in NY with the Yankees.
Donaldson = .229/.313/.395
Falefa (SS) = .271/.316/.322
If the Yankees want to be in on Soto, there is a good chance they would/could include Gleyber Torres, as well as other near MLB ready infield prospects. I am sure Yanks would love to have Urshela back. What would we get for him from Yanks? That would all depend on what the Yankees will give up for Soto (and they will get Soto)  I would say to basically just taking a flier on a young prospect with one standout tool. Or heck even a return swap of Rortvedt at C.
Baltimore is actually now in contention and Urshela could fit in well there.
 
Regardless of trade destination, this is the move.  Trade of Urshela is the right move all the way around.
 
 

Gilberto Celestino has had an interesting path to the majors, and one that reduced his initial shine for most of the fanbase. Celestino was acquired for Ryan Pressly at the 2018 trade deadline, alongside Jorge Alcala, in a very unpopular deal at the time. MLB Pipeline ranked Celestino the 15th best prospect in 2019, and 14th best in 2020. The consensus was that Celestino was a standout defensive center fielder, but questions about his bat and power limited his overall projection.
When Celestino was called up out of emergency in 2021, his initial performance not only confirmed the offensive questions in the prospect rankings but the calling card of his defense was also poor with -2 Outs Above Average coming from 56 attempts. Celestino was clearly overmatched at the major league level, as he played a handful of games at AA before making the jump to the Twins. Celestino accumulated a 22 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR in only 62 plate appearances in 2021. 
Needless to say, when Celestino was added to the 2022 Opening Day roster the reaction amid the fanbase was tepid. It's probable that the Twins didn't even envision Celestino making the roster, as they optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul on 3/31. Many believed that his status on the roster was to be temporary, with rumors swirling about the Twins adding Justin Upton to be a source of right-handed power in the outfield. 
Derek Falvey even went as far to say that Celestino could be off the major league roster in a week's time. 
Flashing forward to early May, Celestino has outperformed expectations, and probably any output that could have come from Justin Upton. As of 5/9, Celestino has provided some of the best offensive and defensive numbers on the team. 
  AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wRC+ wOBA fWAR bWAR Gilberto Celestino .324 .390 .405 .796 144 143 .361 0.6 0.4 FanGraphs has Celestino as the 6th most valuable offensive player on the Twins in fWAR and his wRC+ is the third highest on team behind Byron Buxton and the legendary Kyle Garlick. On the defensive side of his game, Celestino has 2 Outs Above Average (84th percentile). It's a small sample size, but how has Celestino been so valuable this early on? 
The answer to that question: Celestino has had amazing plate discipline. 
Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % 2021 235 51.5 64.5 82.1 26.3 63.3 43.8 30.6 46 23.1 6 85.7 2022 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76
The highlighted cells show that areas where Celestino has been outperforming both his 2021 self, and the MLB average. He's simply become one of the most contact-oriented players in the game, and one of the most discerning about balls and strikes. He's swinging and making contact at pitches that are meant to be swung at in the zone, and spitting at the outside pitches that usually result in outs. 
Among all players with at least 25 plate appearances, Celestino ranks 3rd in Whiff % (8.2%) , and 16th in Chase Rate (15.9%). To put that in further perspective, here's a look at Celestino compared to two other players with great plate discipline reputations. 
  Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % Gilberto Celestino 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 Luis Arraez 351 43.6 66 92.1 25.8 88.2 46.4 19.5 43.3 8.6 5.7 60 Juan Soto 549 43.4 56.7 80.7 19.3 66.7 41 20.3 35.5 23.1 5.8 78.1 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76 Am I saying that Gilberto Celestino is the next Juan Soto or Luis Arráez? No, but I am saying that Celestino is a supremely disciplined hitter with extreme contact skill. That doesn't always take a large sample to determine. Soto has a chase rate of 19.3%, which ranks in the 90th percentile. Arráez has a miniscule whiff rate of 8.6%, which is in the 100th percentile of MLB players. Celestino tops both players in these areas at this point in the season. 
The only knock on Celestino this year can be his lack of power. Both his Barrel Rate (3.2%) and his average exit velocity (86.9 MPH) rank below the MLB average. However, the Twins have plenty of slugging across their lineup to make up for that. Luis Arráez used to be the lone bat-to-ball man in the lineup with names like Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez, Alex Kiriloff, and Gio Urshela. It helps to have offensive diversity, and Gilberto Celestino may be filling a needed niche that nobody expected. 

If Celestino's current blend of strong defense and astounding swing decisions holds up, he probably ranks as a starting-caliber outfielder on most major league teams. The lack of power will always hold him back from being a true star, but his skillset fits today's game more so than the previous half-decade. The surprise addition to Opening Day roster may have been the perfect fit for the 2022 brand of baseball. 
 
 

There were lots of bad baseball moments this holiday weekend. Yesterday, I would've written a whole blog entry about despair and bullpen blow-ups. Today the Twins split the Red Sox series with a decisive victory and I'm a happy boy. Couple home runs, some late inning score-padding. Dylan Bundy turning in a solid performance - we'll just worry about those hard-hit balls later, shall we? 
Game-by-game, I'm like Frankenstein, Twins win. Baseball GOOD. Twins lose. Baseball BAD. The big guy's been on my mind because I rewatched The Bride of Frankenstein this weekend. That's the one where the monster learns to speak a few words in addition to his grunting. Friend GOOD. Fire BAD. I think there's a Frankenstein's monster in the heart of every baseball fan. Even with advanced statistics that map the game for us and help cool our emotions, the monster inside of us reacts. 
It'll get easier to stay positive if the Twins can win more than they lose. It's obvious, but I think there's another level to it. There's this thing called Positive Sentiment Override. It means that things are so overwhelmingly positive that negative experiences don't ruin the positivity. Last year stunk. The Twins have a long way to go before the positive sentiment overrides all the awfulness we suffered through. By way of comparison, think of Yankee fans who believe their team should win the World Series every year. I guess it's easier to build up positive sentimentality with an enormous payroll.
Realistically, this could take time. They say you need 5 positives to every negative to get the full affect. For sake of argument, let's bastardize that theory a bit and say the Twins would have to be successful in almost every aspect of the game. I don't know that they're there yet. Until they are, that Frankenstein voice will keep saying, "Twins BAD" every time something doesn't go our way. Bloggers and commentators will growl, hiss, and bristle at every perceived slight and weakness. 
If we cultivate a culture where winning is the norm, then we might see the "Baseball GOOD" mindset take over the site. Bandwagon fans jump aboard. Losses? We'll get 'em next time. 
I think it might take a playoff series win to really set Twins fans free from their primal, monstrous negativity. Bride of Frankenstein ends with the monster destroying the castle because the bride, created for him, hates and fears him from the start. He doesn't get the one thing he most desperately wants. Twins fans tear the castles of hope down every time they lose the thing they most desperately desire - post-season victory. 
But for now, the monster's happy for the night with a W and a few dingers. We've played some tough teams, so there's reason to be hopeful the Twins add more positivity and decrease the negative knee-jerk reactions to every loss, real or perceived. 
By the way, if you're interested in Positive Sentiment Override and how it affects relationships, check out the work of John Gottman. I've (very) loosely interpreted in a way that benefits my argument. His stuff is great.

There isn't a whole lot you can look back at and be positive about from the Twins 0-8 start this season, but here comes the sun (do do do do). There's a string of 70-degree temperatures coming up, and things can only go up from here for the Twins.
 
Yes, it's lame to write about the weather, but you can't be a Minnesotan and not talk about the weather, especially when it's good. Just like you can't say here comes the sun and not add in the do do do do part.
 
Anyway, the biggest bright spot for the Twins is there are 154 games left. Let that really sink in. I don't think even lifelong, hardcore baseball fans are good at truly wrapping their minds around how ridiculously long the season is. You wouldn't make a conclusion about a football team after the first 3 quarters of their opening game, right? That's roughly the equivalent of where the Twins are in their season.
 
Things look bad, but I promise it's not time to hit the panic button yet. You'll surely hear all sorts of depressing stats about the history of teams who started 0-8. But you know what? The history of those teams has absolutely nothing to do with how the 2016 Minnesota Twins are going to play over their next 154 games.
 
An 0-8 team has never done this, an 0-8 team has never done that ... who cares? While they didn't start 0-8, there are examples of teams that ended up with good seasons after getting off on the wrong foot. The 2011 Tampa Bay Rays started the year 1-8 and ended up making the playoffs with 91 wins. Last season, the Texas Rangers got off to a 7-15 start and were eventually the AL West champions.
 
If you want to stick with Twins history, the 1991 team got off to a 2-9 start. Anybody remember how that team ended up? Of course you do, but I'm going to remind you anyway because in times like these we need to remember baseball can be fun.
 
That team got things straightened out, but it took time. Even at the end of May their record was only 23-25. From there on, they went 72-42, taking the AL West and eventually becoming World Series Champions. It's true. The Twins were really good once upon a time. Like, the best in the World. Seems hard to believe right now, I know, but you can Google it if you don't want to take my word for it.
 
Looking for something more recent? Well, I would argue that the 2015 Twins actually had a worse first eight games than this season's team. Sure, they at least won two games over that span, but the 2015 Twins were outscored 46-19. This year's club has a slightly more palatable 33-13 deficit in the runs scored column.
 
And I know you remember what happened to that team. Those guys, who look a heck of a lot like this year's guys, won 83 games. No, there is no ring ceremony for finishing over .500, but it was a really fun season.
 
Time is still on the Twins' side. I, like I'm sure many of you, was expecting to see the Twins win a Wild Card this season. After the slow start, what do they have to do to get there?
 
Well, it took 86 wins to get into the postseason last year. So if you were expecting the Twins to hit that mark, through eight games you would have projected them to have, what, four maybe five wins. So basically all they have to do is win one extra game each month than you would have originally expected.
 
Doesn't seem crazy when you break it down like that right?
 
Of course all this is ignoring the myriad problems from the first eight games and assuming this has just been a series of games played by the bizarro Twins, and the real team we expected for 2016 will show up at any moment. But, when you're sitting at 0-8 it's a heck of a lot more fun to look forward in hope than it is to look back in disgust.

I am a fan.
 
Not a player. Or a coach. Or a manager. Or a GM. Or an owner.
 
I am a fan.
 
I played my last organized (non-pick up/wiffle ball) game of baseball in 2003. It was in a 'I-can't-play-for-my-high-school-team' league and I remember that we needed one more win to get into the playoffs. I was playing 3rd that day so me and a teammate were on the field so I could take some throws to first when our last teammate finally showed up. In basketball shorts. Without a glove. We lost the game.
 
The reason I bring this story up is I remember getting into the car with my mom after and telling her "I don't understand how someone would show up so unprepared to play. Why would you even come?"
 
I can't quite tell if this was how I felt about the Twins. I rode the high of the first half of the season like all of us. "Holy crap, this team can play!" "How is Torii hitting like this??" "Good lord! Is this the same Mike Pelfrey??" "Terry Ryan is finally moving prospects up instead of AAAA players!"
 
I got to see the team I love riding a huge series win against the Tigers into the All-Star break. Heck, Dozier finally got some national attention and got into the All-Star game! Through the last 4 years, I couldn't remember feeling like this. I was actually going to Target Field to watch baseball, not just to hangout in the summer while drinking some beer and looking for beautiful women. (No shame on that one, that was a large factor)
 
And now the 2nd half has started and I've started to think I'm one of the people I listed above. "Why is Danny Santana still playing SS?" "I'd so much rather watch Oswaldo Arcia wiff multiple times a week but mash one into the parking lot in right field than pretend Eduardo Nunez can take another a bat at DH." "Does Molitor even look at stat lines?" "How the hell is Blaine Boyer still on this team?" (Okay, that one is legitimate. Seriously, why?)
 
Games have gotten back to being the background noise on my TV while I'm at home. I watch a couple innings but it doesn't have the same pull as the first half. I look at the box score everyday but it's more out of habit than passion now. But I finally remembered something last night.
 
I am a fan.
 
And that means I'm going to go through the same things as the team. I'll get into a slump. I will roll my eyes and sigh. I'll start playing with my phone in the 3rd inning and look up to see the start of the 6th. And that's perfectly normal and okay.
 
This isn't to say I shouldn't be critical when the team doesn't play well or question front office moves but seriously, I'm a fan. And every team in baseball slumps at some point.
 
Because I've remembered that, I'm disappointed the team is playing this bad but I don't feel anything like I did the last 4 years. And I am incredibly excited for what this team can do, the rest of this year and the coming years.