Ted Schwerzler

I guess I'm not sure who or what you're referring to. Santana, Hughes, and Gibson are what they are, and that's solid starters. Duffey showed well and there's no reason not to expect that to continue. Milone, while not flashy, has been the same type of capable 5th starter his entire career.

Full believe Meyer is going to be a key pen cog in 2016, see my "Making the Twins bullpen great" article. He's not include because he made his big league debut last season.

There's no scenario in which Milone makes sense in the pen. He's a soft tossing lefty and his stuff won't play up there. Santana was used in a relief role at a time the Twins had a stronger rotation. Berrios won't be promoted to pitch in relief unless for some reason it didn't happen until September (that won't be the case either).

Great post Tom, and a sentiment that does in fact need to be replicated more often. Payroll by and large is a product of TV contracts, something the Twins don't have (or at least in the lucrative sense). Rather than to voice displeasure about a false reality, shifting focus to a much more fixable situation would no doubt be a great measure.

The Minnesota Twins had one of the worst bullpens in the big leagues a season ago. While their starting pitching wasn't anything to write home about, they had plenty of arms to kick off games. With Trevor May entering 2016 with a certain level of uncertainty to his role, it becomes a question of how he best helps the Twins. Thus far during the offseason, Paul Molitor has noted that he's going into Spring Training under the impression he'll use May as a reliever. Although May was brought in as a starter, he flashed the ability to be a very good, if not great bullpen option in 2015. He was a capable starter, and one of the Twins best at times, but again it's the bullpen that needs help. There is only two ways in which Trevor May's situation can play out. Either he works as a starter for the Twins or he doesn't. At this point, it's probably worth considering what each of those scenarios look like. Laying the groundwork, here is how the Twins rotation will almost certainly start: Ervin Santana Phil Hughes Kyle Gibson Those three are all but guaranteed, even if Santana and Hughes flip. From there, the 4th or 5th spot will likely be given to Tyler Duffey. Now how does that make things look with May in the pen? Something like this: Ervin Santana Phil Hughes Kyle Gibson Tyler Duffey Tommy Milone Considering the Twins will go with seven relievers to start the season, we can begin to assumptively fill out the bullpen as well. Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen are locks. Casey Fien was tendered a new contract as can be considered in. Ricky Nolasco needs a spot, and that probably comes in relief. Minnesota has to go with Alex Meyer at some point, and him breaking out this year is a very real possibility. Claiming the lefty relief role vacated by Brian Duensing will be someone along the lines of Logan Darnell, Fernando Abad, or another free agent type. That leaves one opening, given to Trevor May. If May starts in the rotation, he would likely bump Milone from the starting five. Milone's stuff doesn't play in the pen as he is a soft tossing lefty. With May in the rotation, the seventh and final relief role likely goes to someone along the lines of a Michael Tonkin or Ryan Pressly type. So, that presents us with our crossroads. Let's take a closer look at the center of both scenarios. Here's Option A: Tommy Milone starts, Trevor May relieves Milone owns a career 3.97 ERA as a starter. His 6.5 K/9 is pedestrian, but his 2.2 career BB/9 helps him to limit damage. In his first full season with the Twins, Milone owned a 3.92 ERA and a 4.30 FIP. He had a dominating stint at Triple-A, and then finished the year with the big league club owning mediocre, but respectable, numbers for a number five starter. Operating at the back end of the rotation would also make Milone the likely candidate to be bumped when phenom Jose Berrios is given his chance. In a relief role during the 2015 season, Trevor May worked 34.1 IP, most of which were high-leverage. He owned a 3.15 ERA and saw an increase in his velocity, now registering in the upper 90s. May struck out 10.3/9 as a reliever and issued just 2.1 BB/9 out of the pen. From July 25 through the end of the season (a span of 28 appearances), May owned a 2.63 ERA allowing opposing hitters to slash just .243/.295/.408 off of him. Giving the ball to Kevin Jepsen, May was what can be categorized as a shutdown reliever. Here is Option B: Trevor May was acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for Ben Revere. While it was only Vance Worley that was major league ready, it was May that was seen as the premier starting pitcher in the return. May's debut in 2014 didn't go as planned, and saw the Washington native make nine starts with an ERA over 7.00. 2015 was a different story, as May made significant improvement. In 15 starts, he owned a 4.37 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to slash .286/.325/.429 off of him while striking out 8.0 per nine. His best stretch came from May 16 through June 20, seeing May turn in a 3.09 ERA across seven starts. Far from top of the rotation stuff, it was a step in the right direction. Filling out the bullpen in this scenario is someone along the lines of Michael Tonkin or Ryan Pressly. Tonkin was moved between levels nine times in 2015. In the big leagues, he owned a 3.47 ERA across 23.1 IP. It wasn't quite the 2.80 and 1.10 ERA he flashed at Triple-A in 2014 and 15, but it wasn't bad either. His 7.3 K/9 was serviceable, especially for a pen that didn't strike many out. Pressly, the Twins former Rule 5 pick, owned a 2.93 ERA across 27.2 IP before hitting the DL for the remained of the year. His 7.2 K/9 was a career his by nearly two strikeouts per inning, but his 3.9 BB/9 was a career worst. Coming back from an arm injury, he should be 100% but will have to establish himself once again. For Minnesota, the goal is to no doubt field the most competitive roster. In doing so, Paul Molitor would be trying to raise the floor for the worst case scenario in each of his positional groupings. While helping to raise the strength of the bullpen, he would also need to make sure the rotation is in a good spot to compete. While Trevor May is a better starting pitcher than Tommy Milone, and no doubt has more upside, his inclusion in the bullpen also makes the Twins better as a whole. The cost of removing May from the pen would arguably be felt more than that of having Milone start, and eventually be replaced by Berrios. For now, it's fair to say getting behind moving a young (or relatively, May is 26) starter to the bullpen hurts. In the end though, it could definitely be the scenario that helps to push the ability of the Twins roster as a whole to the best place. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Last season, the Minnesota Twins welcomed the big league debuts of a handful of prospects. From Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to Alex Meyer and Max Kepler, Target Field saw an influx of prospects. In 2016, the anticipation may not be as high as it was for some of those prospects, but it could arguably carry a bigger impact. With some key roles left unfilled thus far in the offseason, it could be internal options that prove the most valuable. A year ago, Eddie Rosario was my proverbial pick to click. Way back in March, he was the guy I dubbed 2015's version of Danny Santana the year before. Even before his impressive spring, Rosario seemed like the guy who would get the early callup and take off running. He did just that. Rosario led the big leagues in triple, he amassed 11 defensive runs saved and picked up 16 outfield assists. While he didn't take walks hardly at all, and swung at what seemed like everything at the plate, Rosario had a very nice first year in the big leagues. Now, Minnesota is ready for a couple of guys to take the torch in the year ahead. Here's who we should see debut in 2015 based upon their arrival dates: Jose Berrios- May At this point, there's nothing left for Berrios to prove in the minor leagues. He followed up a 2.77 ERA in 2014 by owning a 2.87 ERA in 2015. His 9.5 career K/9 is much needed in the Twins rotation and while improving at Triple-A, he actually decreased his walk rate (below 2.0 for the first time since Rookie League). During Spring Training, Berrios should get some significant "prove it" type chances with the Twins. I don't think he immediately heads up north with the club, but he should be there within the first month and a half. Expect him to get at least 20 starts for the Twins in the year ahead. Taylor Rogers- May Few areas on the Twins roster are more up in the air than the bullpen. Last season, it was the Achilles Heel of the team, and fixing it remains a priority in the year ahead. Rogers is one of the most immediate internal options. Although he has worked almost exclusively as a starter in his four MiLB seasons, he projects as a nice left-handed long relief option. Rogers doesn't strike out a ton of batters, but he also limits damage. He followed up a 3.98 ERA at Triple-A Rochester in 2015 with an impressive 2.88 ERA in the Arizona Fall League. When the Twins need to call on someone to work relief innings long term early in the season, it should be Rogers name that is called. Nick Burdi- June Something about a bullpen that features Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, and Burdi sounds extremely enticing. Maybe it's that the fourth name mentioned there throws absolute gas. Burdi would become the first Twins pitcher in a while to register triple digits, and he strikes out batters often along the way. In 2015, Burdi ran into some trouble with walks and took his lumps with a demotion. He responded strong in the Arizona Fall League however owning a 12.4 K/9 while walking just 1.1 per nine. A fast start between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Rochester should have him to the big leagues in early summer. J.T. Chargois- July Pitching for the first time since 2012, Chargois finally turned in a healthy season in 2015. He owned a 2.62 ERA in 48.0 IP split between High-A Fort Myers and Double-A Chattanooga. Chargois is a hard thrower as well, and registered a 9.9 K/9 last season. His walk rate (4.7 BB/9) could use some work, but he'll be moved aggressively in the season ahead. Now 25, I would expect to Chargois to get time at Triple-A Rochester before being a middle-of-the-summer option for the Twins. He's another arm that should elevate the overall ability of the Twins pen. Jake Reed- July Bullpens are generally a fickle thing, as is pitching in general. Knowing that the Twins will experience some turnover this season, it's comforting to note all of the strong internal options. Reed likely rounds out the list of top tier pen types. Like Burdi, Reed struggled at points in 2015 but ended on a strong note. He turned in a 1.69 ERA in the fall league, and sat down batters at an 8.4 K/9 clip. Command is the last piece needing to be focused on for him, but Reed should see his debut mid-summer and be a key cog in an improved Twins bullpen. Adam Brett Walker- September Unlike a season ago, hitters making their big league debut for the Twins is somewhat sparse in 2016. With Max Kepler already having made his big league appearance, and Byung Ho Park not being considered a prospect, it's Walker that is the first name on the list. The power for the 24 year-old is no doubt real, he smashed a career high 31 homers a season ago. What is also real, and very scary, is that he strikes out a staggering amount. With 195 strikeouts in 133 games last season, Walker is far from comparisons to Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds or Chris Carter. None of them struck out at the rate he does in the minor leagues, and Walker could push towards 250 strikeouts at the big league level if something doesn't change. Regardless, a similar power output in the year ahead should give him a September call up. A stronger plate discipline will be needed for him to stick. Pat Dean- September Just a bit ago, Major League Baseball held its Rule 5 Draft. The Twins protected lefty Pat Dean from being selected by adding him to the 40 man roster. There's no doubt the club likes him and his 2.82 ERA at Triple-A Rochester in 27 starts last year is a good reason why. Dean is 26 and owns just a 5.3 K/9 in his six professional seasons. He also walks no one however, issuing free passes at a 1.7 BB/9 career rate. He's not going to be a high profile roster addition, but in September, he could get a serious look in a bullpen audition role. Mason Melotakis- First One Out This is more speculative than anything, and Melotakis probably has less than a 50% chance of debuting in 2016. He missed all of last season due to injury, but has previously pitched as high as Double-A. Another guy the Twins protected from the Rule 5 Draft, Minnesota sees that Melotakis has some good stuff. In his 16.0 Double-A innings, Mason owned a 2.25 ERA combined with a 9.6 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9. He's almost guaranteed to start no higher than Double-A, and will need to be eased back in. If he puts together a nice 2016 season though, the Twins could give him a cup of coffee look at the end. If 2015 was the year of the offensive prospect, 2016 is going to highlight the pitching prowess of the organization. While Berrios should factor into the rotation nicely, it's the bullpen that will see the most use out of the incoming arms. For a team looking for relief help, it couldn't be better timed. Minnesota is in a position to fix one of their most glaring weaknesses with some very capable internal options. After seeing six debuts in 2015, there's eight above, and that excludes Park. Let the youth movement continue. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Going into the 2015 season, the Minnesota Twins had a handful of players that were going into prove-it seasons. With youth starting to show up at the major league level, it would be up to newly appointed first-year manager Paul Molitor to get the most out of his team. Pushing for a playoff spot and winning more than half of the team's games, Molitor did that, but regression still showed up.Probably most notable in terms of regression was Danny Santana. As a 23 year-old, Santana burst onto the scene manning the center field for Minnesota. Slashing .319/.353/.472 in his first big league season, the Dominican Republic product had made a great first impression. Unfortunately the numbers were inflated due to a ridiculous .405 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Santana was a candidate for extreme regression this past year, and it hit hard. He played 91 games for the Twins but slashed just .214/.241/.291, ending the season on the farm. Kennys Vargas saw a similar strong 2014 finish turn into an ugly 2015. Vargas followed up a .274/.316/.456 line in 2014 with a .240/.277/.349 line in 2015. He spent time at both Double- and Triple-A getting into just 58 big league games. With the Twins looking to improve upon a promising 2015 season, there are a few players that regression could get to. For Molitor in 2016, it's about having the impact be felt at a significantly lesser level than the regression of Santana, Vargas, or even Kurt Suzuki last year. It's a very curious situation when it comes to Miguel Sano, but there's some reason to believe he could experience regression in year two. After slashing .269/.385/.530 in his first 80 big league games, Sano set the bar high. His 18 homers and 52 runs batted in were more than impressive. What causes some concern is the 119 strikeouts, a pace that would have blown by the team record and likely would have led the big leagues. Like Santana before him, Sano had a high BABIP (.396) a year ago. What is different however is that it's probably sustainable. With a 43.2% of balls being of the hard hit variety, Sano makes any batted ball he puts in play a difficult ask to field nearly half of the time. He also hit line drives at just under a 25% clip a season ago. Both of those numbers should bolster a respectable BABIP throughout his career. Looking into Sano's strikeouts, there are two numbers the Twins slugger should be most focused on. In 2015, Sano swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 25.9% of the time. He also swung and missed at 15.7% of pitches. Should the slugger be able to decrease either of those marks, the expectation that his power will trump the whiff rate will remain extremely high. Another guy with some uncertain peripherals going forward is standout left fielder, Eddie Rosario. After bursting onto the scene in a fashion very similar to Santana, it was Rosario who would have been the nicer asset to see moved instead of Aaron Hicks. Unfortunately, most teams around the big leagues see the same red flags when it comes to the Puerto Rican. In his first big league season, Rosario put up a nice .267/.289/.459 slash line. The ugly number in there is that middle one. Rosario struck out 118 times in 122 games while drawing just 15 walks. For all of his advanced metrics ranking extremely well defensively, it's the offensive ones that scream a warning. Rosario is far from a hulking hitter. Sure he collected 15 triples and slugged 13 homers, but he hit the ball hard just 29% of the time. On top of that, calling Rosario a free-swinger would be a massive understatement. Across his 2015 at-bats, Rosario swung at pitches outside of the strike zone a ridiculously 46% of the time. Despite chasing far too often, it is worth noting that he swung and missed just 14.5% of the time, a percentage less than that Sano's. It's probably not in the cards for the Twins to completely redefine Rosario's approach. The task for Tom Brunansky though is going to be getting Rosario to develop a more professional approach in the box. Rather than chasing the marginal pitches, Rosario needs to sit and wait for his pitch more often. The walk rate absolutely has to increase; continuing on the current trajectory would provide even more cause for concern. Going forward, there's little reason to believe that Miguel Sano is anything but a contributor for the Twins. Rosario remains a much riskier proposition in that department. Sano's ceiling is only going to be limited by the strikeouts he can shave off, while Rosario may have hit his without a retooled approach at the plate. The Twins don't have as many major causes for concern in the regression department as they did a season ago, but both Sano's and Rosario's 2016 approach is one worth monitoring. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz Click here to view the article

Glad to know I kept you on your toes haha! No doubt it's at a point where Twins need to give Meyer and extended look or begin to plan future without him.

Injuries no doubt are going to happen, but forecasting them isn't part of the exercise. As good as May in the rotation is, he's more beneficial to the Twins in relief due to roster construction. As far as Milone in relief, he probably makes the least amount of sense there. He's a soft tossing lefty that's stuff wouldn't play up in the pen.

It was the offseason of 2012 and the Twins were coming off another ugly 90 loss campaign. With more uncertainty ahead, the team and organization had to reinvent itself. Getting younger and acquiring more talent was the definite goal. Following that notion, Minnesota dealt one centerfielder, and then another. Both Denard Span and Ben Revere were gone. Leaving just Aaron Hicks to assume the starting centerfield role, the Twins had some serious questions in the outfield. What they did get however, was two top tier pitching prospects in both Alex Meyer and Trevor May. With front of the rotation type potential there was plenty of excitement surrounding both players, even if the trades were met with criticism. At this point, neither May nor Meyer is working in a starting role, and while that may be less than ideal, the two could combine to become the Twins second coming of an impressive M & M duo. Trevor May was one of the Twins best pitchers in 2015, starting or relieving. It just so happened that due to his ability out of the pen, and the Twins need there, he became a much stronger asset in relief. Following a transition to a full time relief role on July 6, May pitched to the tune of a 3.15 ERA and 10.3 K/9 the rest of the way. He also limited damage by walking just 2.1 per nine. In summary, it was May who was at the top of Molitor's trusted relievers list in 2015. While there's no doubt May could be an asset in the rotation during the 2016 season, it's in the pen that Minnesota needs more help. Having very few strikeout pitchers, May's double-digit strikeout rate and increased velocity in relief should be extremely valuable. Probably best suited for a high-leverage shutdown role, May ceding way to Jepsen or Perkins makes Minnesota late innings leads seem much safer. Coming full circle on the 2012 outfielder deals is the way in which Alex Meyer figures into the Twins plans going forward. Meyer was always billed as the higher prospect between May and himself. Once regarded with top of the rotation type stuff, Meyer was seen as a very solid get from the Washington Nationals. Since joining the Twins organization however, his walk rates have only climbed year by year. In 2015, Minnesota moved Meyer to a relief role, a situation that seemed plausible all along. At 6'9" the lanky Meyer had to learn how to pitch in an entirely different scenario. While there were no doubt hiccups along the way, it's how Meyer ended 2015 that provides the most intrigue. From August 6 through the end of the season, a period of 10 games and 22.2 IP, Meyer was unhittable. The former Kentucky Wildcat owned a 0.79 ERA while striking out 8.9 per nine. His walk rate remained above 4.0 per nine, but he limited opponents to a paltry .192/.293/.205 slash line. Looking at his performance, it's more than fair to argue Meyer deserved a September call up for a second shot at the big leagues. His snub probably positions him well for the upcoming 2016 season however. Building off of a strong finish, and knowing the club wanted more, Meyer only stands in his own way. Now with the focus being shifted to relieving full time, settling in as one of the highest upside relief options for the Twins is a very real possibility. Meyer has long relief written all over him, and being able to pump his upper 90s fastball past big league hitters is a very real possibility. Technically, both May and Meyer could be written off a lesser than expected acquisitions should both of them find their long term home in the Twins pen. However, they both may be a part of something so much more by contributing at a high level in relief. While the Twins rotation doesn't have a plethora of quality options, quantity is on their side. Neither of those things can be said about the bullpen, and both Meyer and May could signify the start of that change. It's often a difficult ask to gauge a prospects contribution at lower levels of the farm. Despite the Twins belief they were getting two quality starters, they may in fact end up with a pair of relievers that lay waste to the American League. Baseball generally has a way of providing some comedy along the way, and rarely are things exactly what they seem. When the Royals traded for James Shields, they ended up with Wade Davis. Minnesota dealt for two young arms, and may cash in on an impressive relief duo that could be dubbed the M & M boys, round two. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I'd agree with you that all teams look at assets in regards to acquisition costs, some teams do it to a fault however. Giving Nolasco significant run without him giving reason for them to do so would fall into that category. As far as questioning depth, I'd assume each piece that uses the term is self explanatory in terms of the way it is defined. Above, depth is a categorization of quantity rather than quality (as I'd noted often). Being that as it is, the reasoning above becomes even more cemented in my mind. Your goal is to configure both the rotation and pen with the utmost quality using you quantity. I believe starting Duffey and relieving May accomplishes that.

I think more than anything, that quote LaVelle provided was teamspeak for we aren't moving Nolasco because he has no value. It's not a matter of selling low, but that there's nothing to sell. It's unfortunate how his time here will end, but it is what it is.

Thanks for the comments Doc! As you mention, Hughes/Santana is probably negligible. With Santana being without a suspension this season (or so we hope), I'd assume he gets the "Ace" role he was destined for when signed and pitched like down the stretch. As I mentioned in the piece, May's exclusion from the rotation is less about his own merits than it is how he best helps the team. As a reliever, May could be elite in the pen, and no doubt is an area that Minnesota is worse. While it's unfortunate he wouldn't start, it's hard to argue against him helping the club in other ways. In regards to Nolasco, I'm not sure his value matters much at this point. He's probably going to decrease in value as a reliever, regardless of if he pitches well or not simply because he isn't starting. The hope would be that he gives you something through the rest of his deal.

As Christmas is right around the corner, we're still months away from meaningful baseball being played at Target Field. In fact, for the next few months, the field is going to be covered with snow. At this point, projecting a 25 man roster is a losing proposition. For the Twins though, selecting the starting rotation is probably much more feasible. Sure, there's little doubt that the Twins have some of the most starting pitching depth that they've had in years. With capable arms about eight or nine pitchers deep, the back end of the Minnesota starting five should have plenty of suitors. The question is, how should Paul Molitor set things up come Opening Day? The first few names in the rotation are easy. Minnesota will almost undoubtedly give "Ace" duties to Ervin Santana. His $55 million contract made him the richest pitcher on the club, and despite the early season suspension, he pitched like one of the best. Although there was some initial growing pains in returning from his suspension, Santana was lights out the rest of the way. From August 30 through the end of the year (seven starts), Santana owned a 1.62 ERA while striking out 8.5 batters per nine. The Twins were 5-2 across those games and Santana tallied a 5-1 record. Following the $55 million man is the guy who inked a new deal the season before. Phil Hughes regressed in 2015, and it was in large part due to the longball. After owning a 3.52 ERA and 2.65 FIP in his first year with the Twins, Hughes totaled a 4.40 ERA in 2016 that was backed by a 4.70 FIP. He still walked no one (0.9 BB/9) but his strikeouts dipped (5.4 K/9 in 2015 after 8.0 K/9 in 2014) and he gave up an AL worst 29 homers. After dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness a year ago, Hughes is a good bet to rebound. Expecting something a bit below his 2014 numbers is within the realm of possibility. Rounding out the guaranteed three is the first of the home grown prospects in this rotation. Kyle Gibson looked the part of the best Twins starting pitcher for stretches of 2015, and another leap forward in the year ahead should be expected. Posting career bests in innings pitched (194.2), ERA (3.84), strikeouts (145), and WHIP (1.289) Gibson continued to grow. His 6.7 K/9 was over a full strikeout worth of improvement, and he was just one of two pitchers (Hughes the other) to win double digit games. Gibson found himself ranking near the top of the AL in ERA for much of the season, and 2016 should see him take another step forward. As a number three, Molitor should feel good about Gibson taking the next step. Things are somewhat up in the air for the final two spots, but it's Tommy Milone who should be considered the most likely option. Milone was tendered a new contract this offseason by the Twins, and the Sam Fuld trade continues to pay off for Minnesota. Across 23 starts in 2015, Milone owned a 3.92 ERA striking out 6.4 per nine while walking just 2.5 per nine. Milone's numbers across the board registered as his best since 2012 as a 25 year-old with the Washington Nationals. As a back end of the rotation option, Milone provides stability and should have the Twins in position to win plenty of games. If he can continue the lights out dominance he displayed at Triple-A Rochester (0.70 ERA across five starts) in a short stint last year, his major league numbers should continue to trend down. Most interestingly among the Twins 2016 rotation is the 5th and final starter spot. There's a handful of suitors to be considered including Trevor May, Ricky Nolasco, Taylor Rogers, and Jose Berrios. The most sensible option though is not among those names. Instead, the final rotation spot goes to 2015 rookie, Tyler Duffey. It was Duffey who started as the Opening Day pitcher for Double-A Chattanooga in 2015. He turned in strong numbers there, as well as Triple-A Rochester prior to making his big league debut. For Minnesota, Duffey made 10 starts owning a sparkling 3.10 ERA. His 3.24 FIP was impressive and he struck out batters at an 8.2 K/9 clip. Going 5-1 in his first 10 big league starts, Duffey should be given the first crack at replicating his stretch run performance for the Twins. Looking back at the other possibilities to round out the rotation, it's as much that Duffey deserves the role as it is the other options can be beneficial elsewhere. May showed he has the ability to be an asset in relief and could turn into an elite one for a bullpen desperately needing quality arms. Nolasco has been hard to count on, and could be more beneficial in a lesser role. For Rogers, the pen has seemed like a potential destination for a while. As a lefty, he should be a significant upgrade in a long relief role over the likes of a Brian Duensing type. The biggest name of that final group is no doubt Jose Berrios. At this point, I think it's safe to say the Twins need to give him at least 20 big league starts in 2016, just not from the get go. Service reasons aside, pushing out promising youth in Duffey would be counter productive. If nothing else, Berrios gets his break at the first sign of injury or Milone's ineffectiveness. The goal and hope would be that one he debuts, he sticks for good and shows the same type of numbers he's displayed throughout the farm system. There you have it, as of December (and barring injury or a blockbuster trade), the Twins are best positioned to go with a Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Milone, Duffey rotation for 2015. After winning 80+ games and starting in a worse place a year ago, that five should be a solid step in the right direction for a team looking to turn the corner for good. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Going into the 2015 season, the Minnesota Twins had a handful of players that were going into prove it seasons. With youth starting to show up at the major league level, it would be a newly appointed first-year manager Paul Molitor to get the most out of his team. Pushing for a playoff spot and winning more than half of the teams games, Molitor did that, but regression still showed up. Probably most notable in terms of regression was Danny Santana. As a 23 year-old, Santana burst onto the scene manning the outfield for Minnesota. Slashing .319/.353/.472 in his first big league season, the Dominican Republic product had made a great first impression. Unfortunately the numbers were inflated due to a ridiculous .405 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Santana was a candidate for extreme regression this past year, and it hit hard. He played 91 games for the Twins but slashed just .214/.241/.291 ending the season on the farm. Kennys Vargas saw a similar strong 2014 finish turn into an ugly 2015. Vargas followed up a .274/.316/.456 2014 line with a .240/.277/.349 line in 2015. He spent time at both Double and Triple-A getting into just 58 big league games. With the Twins looking to improve upon a promising 2015 season, there's a few players that regression could get to. For Molitor, it's about making the impact be felt at a significantly lesser level than that of Santana, Vargas, or even Kurt Suzuki in 2015. It's a very curious situation when it comes to Miguel Sano, but there's some reason to believe he could experience regression in year two. After slashing .269/.385/.530 in his first 80 big league games, Sano set the bar high. His 18 homers and 52 runs batted in were more than impressive. What causes some concern is the 119 strikeouts, a pace that would have blown by a team record and likely led the big leagues. Like Santana before him, Sano had a high BABIP (.396) a year ago. What is different however is that it's probably sustainable. With a 43.2% of balls being of the hard hit category, Sano makes any batted ball he puts in play a difficult ask to field nearly half of the time. He also hit line drives at just under a 25% clip a season ago. Both of those revelations should bolster a respectable BABIP throughout his career. Looking into Sano's strikeouts, there's two numbers the Twins slugger should be most focused on. In 2015, Sano swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 25.9% of the time. He also swung and missed at 15.7% of pitches. Should the slugger be able to decrease either of those marks, the expectation that his power trumps the whiff rate will remain extremely high. Another guy with some uncertain peripherals going forward is standout left fielder, Eddie Rosario. After bursting onto the scene in a fashion very similar to Santana, it was Rosario who would have been the nicer asset to see moved instead of Aaron Hicks. Unfortunately, most teams around the big leagues see the same red flags when it comes to the Puerto Rican. In his first big league season, Rosario put up a nice .267/.289/.459 slash line. The ugly number in there is that middle one however. Rosario struck out 118 times in 122 games while drawing just 15 walks. For all of his advanced metrics ranking extremely well defensively, it's the offensive ones that scream warning. Rosario is far from a hulking hitter. Sure he collected 15 triples and slugged 13 homers, but he hit the ball hard just 29% of the time. On top of that, calling Rosario a free-swinger would be a massive understatement. Across his 2015 at bats, Rosario swung at pitches outside of the strike zone a ridiculously 46% of the time. Despite chasing far too often, it is worth noting that he swung and missed just 14.5% of the time, less than that of Sano. It's probably not in the cards for the Twins to completely redefine Rosario's approach. The task for Tom Brunansky though is going to be getting Rosario to develop a more professional approach in the box. Rather than chasing the marginal pitches, sit and wait for his pitch more of the time. The walk rate absolutely has to increase, and continuing on the current trajectory could provide cause for concern. Going forward, there's little reason to believe that Miguel Sano is anything but a contributor for the Twins. Rosario remains a much riskier proposition in that department. Sano's ceiling is only going to be limited by the strikeouts he can shave off, while Rosario may have hit his without a retooled approach at the plate. The Twins don't have as many major causes for concern in the regression department as they did a season ago, but both Sano and Rosario's 2016 approach is one worth monitoring. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Well, the Winter Meetings have come and gone with Terry Ryan and the Twins going home empty-handed. It wasn't unexpected, albeit a bit frustrating. Regardless, a lot of money was spent the past few days and it got me to thinking. I'm on record saying that Bryce Harper is going to get a $500 million contract. Then it got me to wondering, who's in line for the next Twins payday, and how big will it be?Let's address the elephant in the room first. Yes, the Twins paid Joe Mauer $184 million for eight years of his talents. Yes, they were absolutely right in doing so. No, Mauer is not the same player he was, and unfortunately, the value was sapped significantly when Mauer was forced to move from behind the plate. Yes, moving Mauer from catching was the correct and sensible move. No, he will never and should never catch again. No, the Twins aren't hamstrung by that contract. No, payroll does not come from attendance or new stadiums, it comes from lucrative TV deals (something the Twins don't have). Yes, Minnesota can afford to spend in the future. OK, deep breath. I think we covered all of the points of contention there. So now who's next in line for a big cash dump? Let's think ahead here. He's not a free agent until 2022, and he won't even hit arbitration until 2019, but Miguel Sano is going to get paid. To make this exercise a bit more simple for ourselves, let's assume that the Twins don't extend Sano early (though they should look into doing so). By the time Sano hits free agency in 2022, he will be 29 years old. He'll have played in the big leagues for seven seasons and likely be established as one of the best power hitters in all of baseball. In looking at what kind of player the Twins may be signing at the age of 29, we need to take into consideration what some of Sano's numbers may look like at that point. In his first 80 games at the major league level, Sano launched 18 homers and drove in 52 runs. On a 162 game basis, that's 36 long balls and 105 runs batted in. Six seasons of that type of production, plus his 2015 performance would have Sano somewhere around 230 homers and 680 runs batted in. Factor that Sano can be relied upon for 20 plus doubles a year, and an OPS north of .800 and you have a legitimate top five or ten power guy. By means of providing a complete assessment of talent, Sano's fWAR should be considered. In just 80 games during 2015, Sano gave the Twins 2.0 fWAR (a 4.05 mark across 162 games). That number would have been 20th best in the AL in 2015. Also, considering Sano added no value by playing the field, it's an even more impressive mark. Looking at some of the massive contracts given out to power hitters lately, we can try to fill in the thought process for Sano. At the age of 25, Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins. Averaging 4.15 fWAR thus far in his career, Stanton cashed in. Harper is a few years from free agency, but as mentioned, is likely to get $500 million. He'll be 26, and has averaged 4.85 fWAR thus far in his career. Both of those players are in a tier above Sano, especially considering their defensive value. Trying to find something more comparable, we should probably look a bit higher up the age scale. In fact, we may not need to look any further than this year's free agent class. Enter Chris Davis. The Orioles slugger is on the market at the age of 29 (turning 30 in March). At the moment, Davis has launched 203 homers and driven in 549 runs. He's recorded 168 doubles and owns an .835 career OPS. Essentially, Davis is everything the Twins hope Sano will be. With that in mind, the talk is that Davis is being floated contracts in the $150 million range. His strikeouts are a problem, but he's shown some positional flexibility playing in the outfield as well as first and third base (sound familiar?). It seems possible, accounting for inflation, that the Twins will offer Sano a seven-year, $170 million contract at the age of 29. The average annual value would check in at $24.3 million (just above Mauer's $23m AAV). Should he exceed his current production, or the market dictate it, I could see the price going up to somewhere around $190-200 million as well. Minnesota would have their superstar locked down until his age 36 season, and would spare itself from the scary cliff that is the age closing in on 40. Right now, Miguel Sano is working on losing some weight and getting used to the outfield. Should things go smoothly for both him and the Twins over the next several seasons, this interesting little exercise could absolutely be the future that awaits the exciting Dominican slugger. Only time will tell. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz Click here to view the article

I guess I probably misstated what I was intending to say there. Better put, the "potential" to be more valuable by playing the field. I'd agree that his defense being suspect as it is regardless of where he plays, means it's likely to hurt his overall fWAR. As things currently are, he just has had no opportunity to contribute defensively either way.

Here's the issue with that. First and foremost, $300m is a steal for Harper, and he's going to get somehwere near $500m. Secondly though, the Twins would be taking a massive gamble after one year, while Sano likely wants to bet on himself and cash in even more. Don't see a long term deal coming any time in the next couple of years.

Thanks for the kind words, just kind of came about after thinking about numbers for the past few days. Have to hope it works out for all parties, but right now, Sano is on a Chris Davis track.

Considering the amount of dialogue the Twins and Padres have had over the past year, I'd venture to say Hedges wasn't deemed worthwhile to MN. You weren't going to get Norris for Hicks either. Both Bethancourt and Hedges have massive holes in their game. While Murphy probably doesn't have the ceiling either of those two do, I'd argue he also has a significantly higher floor. I would have liked to see the Twins deal Rosario rather than Hicks, as he's likely got the lesser upside. However, considering it was Hicks who had to be sent, it's likely Rosario wouldn't have been enough. It's probably a bit of an overreaction to call this trade based upon what a paltry catching market and one sided catcher has dictated. I'm a huge Hicks defender/believer, and think he'll have a nice career for the Yankees. That doesn't matter though as it's Murphy that needs to produce for the Twins, and it's far too early to be suggesting a flop in that regard.

Well, the Winter Meetings have come and gone with Terry Ryan and the Twins going home empty handed. It wasn't unexpected, albeit a bit frustrating. Regardless, a lot of money was spent the past few days and it got me to thinking. I'm on record saying that Bryce Harper is going to get a $500 million contract. Then it got me to wondering, who's in line for the next Twins payday, and how big will it be? Let's address the elephant in the room first. Yes, the Twins paid Joe Mauer $184 million for eight years of his talents. Yes they were absolutely right in doing so. No, Mauer is not the same player he was, and unfortunately, the value was sapped significantly when Mauer was forced to move from behind the plate. Yes, moving Mauer from catching was the correct and sensible move. No he will never and should never catch again. No, the Twins aren't hamstrung by that contract. No, payroll does not come from attendance or new stadiums, it comes from lucrative TV deals (something the Twins don't have). Yes, Minnesota can afford to spend in the future. Ok, deep breath, I think we covered all of the points of contention there. So now who's next in line for a big cash dump? Let's think a ways ahead here. He's not a free agent until 2022, and he won't even hit arbitration until 2019, but Miguel Sano is going to get paid. To make this exercise a bit more simple for ourselves, let's assume that the Twins don't extend Sano early (though they should look into doing so). By the time Sano hit's free agency in 2022, he will be 29 years old. He'll have played in the big leagues for seven seasons, and likely be established as one of the best power hitters in all of baseball. In looking at what kind of player the Twins may be signing at the age of 29, we need to take into consideration what some of Sano's numbers may look like at that point. In his first 80 games at the major league level, Sano launched 18 homers and drove in 52 runs. On a 162 game basis, that's 36 long balls and 105 runs batted in. Six seasons of that type of production, plus his 2015 performance would have Sano somewhere around 230 homers and 680 runs batted in. Factor in the consideration Sano can be relied upon for 20 plus doubles a year, and an OPS north of .800 and you have a legitimate top five or ten power guy. By means of providing a complete assessment of talent, Sano's fWAR should be considered. In just 80 games during 2015, Sano gave the Twins 2.0 fWAR (a 4.05 mark across 162 games). That number would have been 20th best in the AL in 2015. Also, considering Sano added no value by playing the field, it's an even more impressive mark. Looking at some of the massive contracts given out to power hitters lately, we can try to pencil in a thought process for Sano. At the age of 25, Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins. Averaging 4.15 fWAR thus far in his career, Stanton cashed in. Harper is a few years from free agency, but as mentioned, is likely to get $500 million. He'll be 26, and has averaged 4.85 fWAR thus far in his career. Both of those players are in a tier above Sano, especially considering their defensive value. Trying to find something more comparable, we should probably look a bit higher up the age scale. In fact, we may not need to look any further than this year's free agent class. Enter Chris Davis. The Orioles slugger is on the market at the age of 29 (turning 30 in March). At the moment, Davis has launched 203 homers and driven in 549 runs. He's recorded 168 doubles and owns an .835 career OPS. Essentially, Davis is everything the Twins would hope Sano could be. With that in mind, the talk is that Davis is being floated contracts in the $150 million range. His strikeouts are a problem, but he's shown some positional flexibility playing in the outfield as well as first and third base (sound familiar?). It would seem possible, accounting for inflation, that the Twins offer Sano a seven-year, $170 million contract at the age of 29. The average annual value would check in at $24.3 million (just above Mauer's $23m AAV). Should he exceed his current production, or the market dictate it, I could see the price going up to somewhere around $190-200 million as well. Minnesota would have their superstar locked down until his age 36 season, and would spare itself from the scary cliff that is the years closing in on 40. Right now, Miguel Sano is working on losing some weight and getting used to the outfield. Should things go smoothly for both him and the Twins over the next several seasons, this interesting little exercise could absolutely be the future that awaits the exciting Dominican slugger. Only time will tell. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Appreciate your comment and it's essentially a summary of my thoughts and feelings as well. You can protect people from a multitude of things, and you can post all the warnings in the world, but some things should be common sense and ownership should be internal. You sit close to a baseball, pay attention to what enters the stands. I'm glad you bring up the netting behind the plate too. I had some nonsense type replies on twitter regarding the seats behind the plate being the best in the park and behind netting. There's netting behind the plate because there is a 100% chance that on every pitch a ball is being thrown or batted right at you, that's common sense. I, like you, also choose not to sit behind the plate for the sate of the unimpeded view.

Welcome to the offseason, and the frustrations of watching Terry Ryan sit idly by as his competition surrounds him. In 2015, the Minnesota Twins compiled an 83-79 record finishing second in the AL Central. They were one of baseball's biggest surprises, but not to all. No, to the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros, each of the three teams were in similar positions to capitalize upon rebuilding success. The issue is, one still doesn't seem to know it. Last year, both the Astros and Cubs made it to the playoffs. In Joe Maddon's first year as Cubs skipper, he very nearly took a team led by Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, and Jake Arrieta to the playoffs. With his youth all over the field, it was the young guys carrying the offensive load as Arrieta mowed down hitters from the mound. For the Astros, the narrative was similar. An early callup and spectacular play from rookie Carlos Correa netted him the AL Rookie of the Year. Although contributions weren't made from the same guys all year, Dallas Keuchel was there on the mound to be the workhorse. Throw in George Springer, Jose Altuve, and a trade for Carlos Gomez, and it's easy to see why the Astros were there at the end. Neither of them left the season satisfied however. Houston made sure to make relief pitching a priority and resigned left-hander Tony Sipp. Owning a 1.99 ERA and 10.3 K/9 for them a season ago, Houston realized he will be integral in their 2016 success. The Cubs made a huge splash in signing Ben Zobrist, reuniting him with Maddon. They also dealt Starlin Castro for relief help, and cleared up space for Javier Baez. Knowing pitching is a must, they brought on John Lackey to a rotation already headlined by Arrieta and Jon Lester. Assuming that the Minnesota Twins see the similarities between themselves and the two aforementioned ball clubs, it would only stand to reason they'd be pushing the needle as well. While Terry Ryan has talked of the good days he's had discussion wise this offseason and at the winter meetings, here's what the Twins have accomplished: NOTHING. That's right, despite nearly making it to the playoffs behind one of the worst bullpens in baseball, Minnesota has signed no relief help. Although Trevor Plouffe is no doubt a bigger asset to the Twins than any other team he'd be dealt to, Minnesota appears to be content pushing Miguel Sano to the outfield, and making it work (it could, see here). To summarize the situation in terms of roster decisions, Minnesota last fire throwing relief prospect Zack Jones in the Rule 5 draft while protecting multiple players yet to pitch above Low-A and unlikely to make it through a year at the big league level (or even be selected). As the Winter Meetings draw to a close, Terry Ryan has made sure to comment how many guys he's been close on. We've heard the Twins have finished runner up in some trade discussions as well as free agent signings, but it all adds up to missing the point. A season ago, the Twins showed they could compete before the talented pool of youth had overflowed to the big league level. Much like the decision making process with Jose Berrios a season ago, Ryan and the Twins seemed determined to wait almost until their hand is forced. With the ability to promote from within, and supplement with some top tier talent outside, the Twins should field a 2016 roster capable of pushing the Royals in the AL Central. Bringing back retreads like Neal Cotts, or targeting near 40 year olds like Matt Thornton to fix the biggest problem area isn't going to accomplish that however. The Winter Meetings are hardly the be-all-end-all for the Twins or baseball when it comes to offseason transactions. However, if the Twins, and Terry Ryan's handling of the past week is any indication, there could be some frustratingly long processes to play out in Minnesota's near future. When winning is in front of you, it's on you to take hold of it. Standing idly by and letting it come to you is generally not the proposition that culminates in a ring, or anything close. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz