Ted Schwerzler

I'm so stuck on Polanco. I left him out of this exercise due to being a 40 man guy. I'm still of the belief that the Twins are best off dealing either Dozier or Polanco. I really have a tough time selling myself on the idea of trading Dozier (even though his value is likely higher). That said, Polanco's bat is big league ready, and he needs to play second base. His development is going to be stunted shortly if he isn't challenged more.

We just a couple of months away from the Twins kicking off spring training action and even closer to pitchers and catchers reporting to sunny Fort Myers. For the Twins, much of the roster should already be decided, but there's a few cracks for someone to carve out playing time. It's down in Florida that we generally see those storylines play out. A season ago, it was Eddie Rosario who slugged two homers in 17 spring games that drove the conversation regarding him coming north. In 2014, Aaron Hicks turned 18 spring games into a .327/.364/.462 slash line that had him looking ready to assume the full time centerfield gig for the Twins. Heading into 2016, there's no doubt going to be "that guy" again, but the question is who. While you're beginning to put together some thoughts as to who that may be, let me offer some insight as to what the favorites may look like. Here's who has the best odds of being the talk of the Twins spring down in Fort Myers. Max Kepler 4/1: There's little doubt that Kepler has one of the best shots to impress at Twins camp. At different points this offseason, I've considered his potential to break camp with the big league club and immediately head north. I've addressed him first here as he's the lone member of this list that is not a non-roster invitee. Kepler's .318/.410/.520 slash line from 2015 is already impressive, and his debut at the end of the year suggests the Twins aren't going to hold him back. I expect a strong spring from the German prospect, but still see him starting the season on the farm. Nick Burdi 5/2: Right on Kepler's heels is 2014 Minnesota Twins draft pick Nick Burdi. Expected to be somewhat accelerated through the system, Burdi hit a bit of a speed bump last year. Despite the demotion, it's how he rebounded that has me believing 2016 is going to be a big year for the former Lousiville Cardinal. Burdi owned the Arizona Fall League, posting a 0.00 ERA across 8.0 innings and compiling a 12.4 K/9 while walking just 1.1 BB/9 (command being his biggest downfall thus far). The Twins pen is in need of help, and going up against the likes of Fernando Abad, Buddy Boshers, Brandon Kintzler, and a couple of others for a final pen spot, Burdi could actually push himself to the top of the group. Jake Reed 15/1: Tied to Burdi being from the same draft class, much of Reed's reasoning is similar to the aforementioned Burdi. He's a budding reliever in an organization whose major league pen needs significant help. Reed is not quite the hard thrower Burdi is, and his strikeout rates are lower (8.5 K/9 across two MiLB seasons). That said, Reed also dominated in the Arizona Fall League (1.69 ERA in 10.2 IP) which was nice to see. Coming off less of an injury history than J.T. Chargois (who I expect to debut with the Twins this season as well), Reed has the opportunity to turn some heads this spring. Jose Berrios 25/1: While no doubt a longshot, the odds being stacked against Berrios to break camp with the Twins aren't really any indication of his performance. At this point, and even at the end of last season, Berrios has accomplished all he can on the farm. he owned a 2.87 ERA and a 9.5 K/9 a year ago while walking batters at just a 2.1 BB/9 clip. He was actually better at Triple-A than Double-A, and the Twins could use need him in their rotation. Spring will be about forcing the Twins hand as to how early they promote him, even if that won't be Opening Day. He'll be kept down past the Super 2 deadline, and I'd guess Minnesota will have him up around May. Dominating this spring would be nice, but it's not going to get him the immediate call. Joe Benson 75/1: A familiar face makes his way back onto the scene for the Twins, and it's actually not as crazy of a thought as would seem. Minnesota brought back former top prospect Benson following a stint playing Indy Ball. Now 27 and having not played i nthe big leagues since 2011, Benson is looking at a monumental task to crack the 25 man roster. He hit a mediocre .248/.351/.361 at Double and Triple-A for the Mets and Braves organizations respectively. His time with the Sugar Land Skeeters was brief, and the numbers weren't thrilling there either. Working in Benson's favor is a projected outfield of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano. Benson is a plus defender, and Shane Robinson is no longer with the organization to provide a defensive replacement type. Should Buxton not start with the Twins (he will), the path becomes even more realistic. I wouldn't bet on it, but a torrid spring and toss up roster decision, Benson could end up being the Twins 25th man. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

For him to be worth anything, the first thing that would need to play out is him be effective.

To be fair, I think the ideal situation is that Nolasco figures it out, stays healthy and works out of the pen. If he does not, and the Twins don't cut bait (which they may), that's an issue.

I think, maybe inadvertently, you just made my point even stronger. Whether with Milone or some other younger talent, the Twins are in a far better place than trying to add band-aids and warm bodies to fill out five

More often than any other area needing to be addressed by the Twins, it's starting pitching I have seen noted by national types. While Minnesota no doubt had a catching issue, and the bullpen remains largely unchanged from the ineffectiveness it showed a year ago, the belief is that the Twins need an ace. There's truth in the though, Minnesota is no doubt void of a frontline starter, but they probably don't need one either. This offseason, a lot has been made about how the Twins will round out their starting rotation. I've talked about it plenty here at Off The Baggy, and it would appear the Twins rotation is all but set. A Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Duffey, Milone starting five doesn't have a headliner, but it also lacks glaring weaknesses as well. Looking around the AL Central, that actually may play to the benefit of the home nine. Not long ago, I took my annual look into what the AL Central will look like when the dust settles come September. While the Twins are likely headed for a minor step back, the argument could easily be made that they are the most likely squad to have the highest potential to swing within the division. If everything breaks right, the Twins could find themselves hanging a pennant, and conversely, could end up at the bottom significantly out of it if only a few key things go wrong. As things stand currently, the Twins look like a middle of the road AL Central team. Most realistically finishing third in the division, it's an interesting concept when comparing that to starting pitching. Of the AL Central opponents, there's only two starting rotations that would seem far and away better than Molitor's group. First, it's easy to call the Indians rotation the cream of the crop in the Central. While I'm nowhere near as high on them as many are, the talent is more than evident. Corey Kluber remains an ace, and even in a down year a season ago, he was lights out far more often than not. Carlos Carrasco remains a very strong second option, and has plenty of ace ability on his own. Eventually, the Indians are still hoping that Danny Salazar can click, and should he, the division would be worse off for it. Regardless whether it's Zach McAllister, Trevor Bauer, or TJ House Rounding out the final spots, Cleveland has strong pieces one through five. Then there's the Chicago White Sox, who are actually trending towards overtaking the Indians rotation in my opinion. Chris Sale is one of baseball's five or six best pitchers. Jose Quintana would be an ace for many other teams, and Carlos Rodon flashed plenty of excitement during his debut season. Robin Ventura's final two starters leave something to be desired, but there's little doubt the top three can go out and get you a win on any given day. When taking a look at the Royals rotation, it's more than clean to see why the Twins are in a better place. Now without Johnny Cueto, who actually was a negative outside of the playoffs, Kansas City looks putrid as a whole. Headlined by Yordano Ventura, who should rebound in the year ahead, a number two starter is either Edinson Volquez or Ian Kennedy. Recently signed for $70 million over the next five years, Kennedy is a far cry from the Cy Young competitor he was back in 2011. Likely worse than the likes of unsigned free agent Yovani Gallardo, and maybe more closely compared to former Twin Mike Pelfrey, Kennedy in the top three is quite the gamble. With the Royals rounding out the group relying upon the aging Chris Young and the likes of Jason Vargas or some other warm body, there's little reason to question why their bullpen has to be so good. For the Tigers, it's more patchwork than anything. Of course Jordan Zimmerman provides a very nice piece, but he hides what's a bigger issue. Justin Verlander hasn't been good for quite some time, and Anibal Sanchez hasn't been healthy for even longer. Relying on youth for the back end will be an interesting strategy as well. Detroit hasn't had an in house piece work for a while, and although their exciting youngsters aren't home grown, development will be worth watching. At the end of the day, if pitching is the most important aspect when it comes to winning, the Twins are in what can be considered far from a bad place. The Opening Day rotation won't bring fireworks, but having Jose Berrios waiting in the wings with some depth options at the top of the organization, Minnesota can feel comfortable going forward. For all the games Minnesota pitching may not win them, there should be plenty more often than not that the day's hurler gives the lineup a chance. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

With the Twins coming off one of the most impressive seasons in the past four years, the AL Central division has been given a boost from top to bottom. The Kansas City Royals are the defending World Series champs, and the middle of the pack has taken steps forward as well. In 2016, the division once again projects to be tightly contested, and maybe even more so than in 2015. A season ago, I released the AL Central Division Preview in March, this year we're doing it a bit earlier. Prior to spring training, injuries have yet to take their toll, and suspensions (ahem Ervin Santana) have not been handed out. What has happened however is the free agency dust has begun to settle. Many of the big names have found their new homes, and barring some unforeseen moves, teams are beginning to look forward. While meaningful baseball is still a few months off, pitchers and catchers report to their respective spring training sites in short order. As position battles take place, and teams gear up for the season, here's how I see the AL Central finishing up this fall: Kansas City Royals 86-76 After winning the World Series, the Royals will have the target on their backs in 2016 and get everyone's best shot. While they have some significant issues in the rotation, it's fair to argue they did for much of 2015 as well. I think the loss of Greg Holland is mitigated by the addition of Joakim Soria. That bullpen is for real, and even if Wade Davis isn't the 2015 version (he won't be) he still incredibly good. I'm not worried about the regression of guys like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. I think they've entered their prime and 2015 is more a sign of things to come than what once was. Getting Alex Gordon back was huge, and the emergence of prospects makes for interesting supplements. I have a hard time believing Yordano Ventura won't rebound, and Kyle Zimmer is an intriguing option that shouldn't be too far away. Until further notice, the Central should remain the Royals division. Cleveland Indians 84-78 A season ago, Cleveland finished a single game above .500 at 81-80. That record ended up being odd for a multitude of reasons. Despite being the reigning Cy Young Award winner, Corey Kluber was awful as April turned to May (posting a 7.43 ERA from Apr 22-May 7). He finished with good-not-great numbers on the season though, and was backed by the emerging Carlos Carrasco. The Indians got just 99 games of Francisco Lindor, who arguably became their best player. There's also the fact that they had a plus 29 run differential, despite winning just one more game than they lost. Many picked the Indians as a darkhorse World Series candidate a season ago. I don't see them being that good in 2016 either, but they've definitely got the pieces to contend in the jumbled AL Central. I'm not as high on the staff as others, and I think they've got some outfield questions, but they're the team I feel least comfortable projecting. Minnesota Twins 81-81 Last season, the Twins burst onto the scene and made a playoff push despite no one picking them to do anything but finish at the bottom of the division. With an 83 win season, Minnesota trailed only the Royals in the Central. Unfortunately for Minnesota, much of it was based upon situational excellence. With a minus four run differential and inflated numbers with runners in scoring position, the Twins generated a large amount of clutch runs. This season, Molitor's squad will be looking for more consistency. The Twins aren't going to do anything at an exceptional level, but they have the opportunity to be good enough across the board. Pitching depth is there, even if top tier quality is not. For the club to challenge for the division and playoffs once again, Byron Buxton will need to emerge, Miguel Sano continue his growth, and Byung Ho Park be as good as billed. More than any other Central team in 2016, the Twins have the pieces to win the division just as much as they do to lose it miserably. Chicago White Sox 79-83 Much like the Indians, the White Sox will go as their pitching does this season. They scored a division worst 3.84 runs per game a season ago, and the offense hasn't exactly been transformed. Chris Sale, Carlos Rodon, and Jose Quintana are legit starters. They have back end of the rotation and bullpen questions however. Offensively, the addition of Todd Frazier is nice, but I expect some of his numbers to decline. They still need another outfielder, and with Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes on the market, targeting one would be a good idea. For the South Siders, spending hasn't often equated to wins. Now with a revamped infield bringing in both Frazier and Brett Lawrie, Robin Ventura's squad will once again have a new feel to it. If they can make one more big splash, pushing towards the top of the division isn't out of the question. Without that though, they look like a very middle-of-the-road type club. Detroit Tigers 77-85 Somewhat unsurprisingly, the Tigers finished at the bottom of the AL Central a season ago. I expect them to be better in the year ahead, but their positioning shouldn't change. The roster is getting older, and the farm system really isn't any good. Signing Jordan Zimmerman was as much a necessary move as it was a nice deal, but asking him to be an ace could be a bit much. Justin Verlander isn't what he once was, Anibal Sanchez is a walking injury, and youth resides after that. The bullpen has been the Achilles Heel of the Tigers for what it seems like years. Francisco Rodriguez should help, but he's not going to cure the issue completely. J.D. Martinez is a great success story, but he's also almost exclusively what is going right for Detroit in the outfield. An again Cameron Maybin, and young Steven Moya are likely going to be relied upon more than they should be. Detroit probably isn't going to be bad, but Brad Ausmus is going to squeeze what he can out of his squad wherever he can. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

With the winter months dominating the calendar at the present time, one of the highlights of the offseason has been the Hall of Fame voting. With Ken Griffey Jr. being a guaranteed lock heading into the reveal (even despite three clueless voters), it was a question of who would join him during enshrinement in Cooperstown this summer. After the dust settled, we now know that honor will go to Mike Piazza.For the Twins, the ballot was void of any Minnesota presence. In upcoming years, the most closely tied name will be that of Jim Thome. While he won't go in as a member of the Twins, he provided plenty a bright spot in Twins Territory as he rounded out his career. It's not Thome though who is the next most likely Twins player to gain consideration for enshrinement. For Minnesota, an opportunity may be presented when Torii Hunter is first eligible. It's almost guaranteed he will be inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame, but despite the potential to reach Cooperstown, he should fall short. Hunter has a better resume than that of Jim Edmonds, but it's not 70% better, which is what will be needed to reach enshrinement. Edmonds fell off the ballot after missing out on the needed 5% this year, Hunter will likely do better. Regardless, don't expect him to break the Twins drought. No, instead that honor could most likely go to a player twho is still a member of the Twins. 32 year-old Joe Mauer is the Minnesota Twins next most likely candidate for Hall of Fame consideration. Had he not been given the injury hand he has been dealt, and still was behind the plate, I'd feel good about forecasting him as a first-ballot type player. As things stand currently, he presents a very strong case with a few more years left to push the needle one way or another. At this point in time, Hall of Fame voting principles don't seem to rely heavily on the golden numbers. While 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, and other milestones seemingly should guarantee induction, other factors such as character and performance enhancers have muddied the waters. For Mauer though, those numbers will be left out of consideration entirely. Sitting currently at just under 1,700 hits for his career with just over 115 home runs, Mauer's case for the Hall will be built on some different principles. As a catcher, Mauer garnered four All-Star appearances, an MVP award, three Gold Gloves, and four Silver Slugger titles. He was arguably the best in the game, at one of its most demanding positions for the first seven years of his big league career. Following concussion issues, Mauer's game has been transformed. He's become a relative shell of the hitter he once was, and has had to adapt to playing an entirely new position. Despite the downturn in production, Mauer still owns a career .313/.394/.451 slash line and can claim three batting titles to his credit. Most importantly for Mauer's prospects regarding the Hall of Fame, is how the story ends up being written. As the 2016 season kicks off, Mauer will be 33 years old. Under contract for the Twins until 2018, there are probably at least another 400 plus hits in his bat, and production that could be boosted by some lineup changes. Should Mauer trend back towards what he once was, or at least to an high average and contact hitter, he should be seen favorably in the eyes of voters. If the trend of a dipping average combined with mediocre peripheral numbers continues, Mauer's longevity could actually hurt him down the stretch. Hanging on and compiling stats while diluting and distancing from the catching days likely won't do him any favors. At the end of his career, Joe Mauer is not going to be Mike Piazza. He could (and likely should) surpass the 2,127 hits of the Mets backstop. Mauer probably will lay claim to a better average and on-base percentage. He's going to have the MVP and batting titles to his credit, and his Gold Gloves should make a difference. He isn't the power hitter his current position is expected to be though, and the injuries that have changed the course of his career will be held against him Sometime within the next ten to twelve years, Joe Mauer is going to get his turn on the Hall of Fame ballot. He's not a lock the first time around, but expecting him to come up with 75% of the vote through the first half of his voting eligibility is far from a fool's proposition. Click here to view the article

As always Platoon you make great points. I think the one most telling is your last sentence, what he is to MN is much more than what he'd be anywhere else. Thus, keep him.

I'd do this in a heartbeat. I'm still nervous to see what the Brewers get for Lucroy. If it's little, the Twins should feel pretty bad about grabbing JRM.

Going into the offseason, Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor made quick work of releasing the information that Miguel Sano was going to try and make a transition to the outfield. The exciting slugger needed to make room for Byung Ho Park, and playing right field was how the Twins were going to handle that. The notion was met with skepticism and an almost guaranteed thought that in the end, Trevor Plouffe would be dealt from the Twins. In the end though, Plouffe has stayed put, and it creates a best possible scenario for the Twins. Although Sano is entering uncharted territory in the outfield, there's reason to believe that it could work. What's more important though, is exactly how much Plouffe means to Minnesota. For Molitor's squad, there was no logical return that was going to bring back what Plouffe meant to the lineup. Most importantly is that the production Plouffe brings may be under appreciated. A season ago, Trevor Plouffe was worth 2.5 fWAR for the Twins, down from a 3.6 fWAR in 2014. Unfortunately for those stuck on projections, Steamer sees just a 1.6 fWAR for the Twins third basemen in 2016. It really depends on what Plouffe is able to play throughout the entirety of the season however. In a handful of categories, Plouffe set new records for himself a year ago. He played in a career high 152 games, scored 74 runs, picked up 140 hits, tripled four times, homered 22 times, drove in 86 runs, and looked every bit the part of one of the best third basemen in baseball. The problem is that Plouffe's season was a tale of two parts. From Opening Day until the end of July, Plouffe slashed a respectable .257/.316/.456 as well as clubbing 14 of his homers and driving in 55 of his runs. Of his 35 doubles on the season, 24 of them came before August, then things changed. From August 1st through the end of the season, Plouffe slashed an ugly .223/.294/.398. He homered just eight more times, and he struck out 53 times in 56 starts. The momentum from the better part of the season had fallen off of a cliff. So why does it matter that Plouffe is still in the middle of the Twins lineup? Because for a team that will rely on offense, the California product has shown he can be a catalyst for it. When called upon to handle the load as the cleanup hitter, Plouffe went through issue. In 68 starts from the four-hole, he slashed just .223/.284/.400, launching eight of his homers. At his best, hitting from the five-spot in the lineup, Plouffe slashed .274/.332/.489 with 11 of his homers. Dropping in the lineup behind the likes of 2016 power hitters, Sano and Park, Plouffe is given an opportunity to see pitches in a more ideal situation. Allowing Plouffe to hit in a lesser lineup role in the year ahead could foster the same type of early season production the Twins saw from their third basemen, but allow them to benefit for an entire 162. At the end of the day, Plouffe wasn't going to net the Twins much more than a relief arm. Considering the benefit to the lineup as one of their best hitters, keeping him and pairing his bat with the likes of Sano, Park, and Brian Dozier should help the Twins to create offensive opportunities in an abundant fashion. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

With the winter months consuming the calendar at the present time, one of the highlights of the offseason has been the Hall of Fame voting. With Ken Griffey Jr. being a guaranteed lock heading into the reveal (even despite three clueless voters), it was a question of who would join him during enshrinement in Cooperstown this summer. After the dust settled, we now know that honor will go to none other than Mike Piazza. For the Twins, the ballot was void of any Minnesota presence. In upcoming years, the most closely tied name will be that of Jim Thome's. While he won't go in as a member of the Twins, he provided plenty a bright spot in Twins Territory as he rounded out his career. It's not Thome though that is the next most likely Twins player to gain enshrinement. For Minnesota, an opportunity may be presented when Torii Hunter is first eligible. It's almost guaranteed he will be inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame, but despite the potential to reach Cooperstown, he should fall short. Hunter has a better resume than that of Jim Edmonds, but it's not 70% better, which is more than what will be needed to reach enshrinement. Edmonds fell off the ballot after missing out on the needed 5% this year, Hunter will likely do better. Regardless, don't expect him to break the Twins drought. No, instead that honor could most likely go to a player that is still a member of the Twins. 32 year-old Joe Mauer is the Minnesota Twins next most likely candidate for Hall of Fame consideration. Had he not been dealt the injury hand he was, and still was behind the plate, I'd feel good about forecasting him as a first-ballot type player. As things stand currently, he presents a very strong case with a few more years left to push the needle one way or another. At this point of time, Hall of Fame voting principles don't seem to rely heavily on the golden numbers. While 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, and other milestones seemingly should guarantee induction, other factors such as character and performance enhancers have muddled the waters. For Mauer though, those numbers will be left out of consideration entirely. Sitting currently at just under 1,700 hits for his career with just over 115 home runs, Mauer's case for the Hall will be built on some different principles. As a catcher, Mauer garnered four All Star appearances, and MVP award, three Gold Gloves, and four Silver Slugger titles. He was arguably the best in the game, at one of its most demanding positions for the first seven years of his big league career. Following concussion issues, Mauer's game has transformed. He's become a relative shell of the hitter he once was, and had to adapt to playing an entirely new position. Despite the downturn in production, Mauer still owns a career .313/.394/.451 slash line and can claim three batting titles to his credit. Most importantly for Mauer's prospects regarding the Hall of Fame, is how the story ends up being written. As the 2016 season kicks off, Mauer will be 33 years old. Under contract for the Twins until 2018, there's probably at least another 400 plus hits in his bat, and production that could be boosted by some lineup changes. Should Mauer trend back towards what he once was at least as an average and contact hitter, he should be seen favorably in the eyes of voters. If the trend of a dipping average combined with mediocre peripheral numbers continues, Mauer's longevity could actually hurt him down the stretch. Hanging on and compiling stats while diluting and distancing from the catching days likely won't do him many favors. At the end of his career, Joe Mauer is not going to be Mike Piazza. He could (and likely should) surpass the 2,127 hits of the Mets backstop. Mauer probably will lay claim to a better average and on-base percentage. He's going to have the MVP and batting titles to his credit, and his Gold Gloves should make a difference. He isn't the power hitter the position is expected to be though, and the tumultuous injuries that have changed the course of his career will be held against him Sometime within the next ten to twelve years, Joe Mauer is going to get his turn on the Hall of Fame ballot. He's not a lock the first time around, but expecting him to come up with 75% of the vote through the first half of his voting eligibility is far from a fool's proposition. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

My two best answers to your question are: A) The Twins and I don't know. With what Minnesota has on the farm, I wouldn't have tendered Nunez

I'd agree with that wholeheartedly.

I'd agree that Dozier's power is generated through selling out to completely tank the ball. It's something the Twins have become ok with due to the power production. As you've suggested, salvaging his later career may be best done by a change of approach (something that I'd agree, won't be forced). You're right in that Dozier and Polanco are mutually hurting each other. One is lulling the Twins into a false sense of security, while the other will soon be wasting key development time at higher levels. It's an unfortunate situation that may not have the best ending.

Thanks for stating the speculative sense of this, I think sometimes that gets lost. I'd agree with you that the biggest issue could be what the Twins do to hurt Polanco if he doesn't play in MLB earlier than 2 years, and how he hurts the Twins if he's traded. As far as Park/Kepler/etc replacing Dozier's power, I'm not sure it's that cut and dry. The Twins needed to add a Park type, despite Dozier's contribution. I don't forsee Rosario continuing to be effective on his current path, and it will be Kepler replacing him at some point. Essentially, the Twins probably need to decide what to do with Dozier before that decision is made for them.

Recently, Fangraphs released their yearly ZiPS projections for the Minnesota Twins. As with most years, the results weren't incredibly favorable. On the offensive side of things, the projections see Minnesota hitters in a relatively good light, it's the pitching where the most is left to be desired. There's one player though that provides a pretty big potential cause for concern. Enter Brian Dozier. On the surface, things aren't all that bad for Dozier. Projections have him as a repeat 3.0+ fWAR player with over 20 homers and 30 plus doubles. From a statistical standpoint, that would once again put the Twins second basemen among the best in the big leagues at the position. It's never really been about what Dozier has done though that is the concern. Instead, it's what may come, and when. If there's something that stuck out to me more than anything in the ZiPS projections provided by Fangraphs, it goes well beyond any statistical numbers. Comparisons are a fickle science (and they really aren't a science at all), but the name next to Brian Dozier's made me pause. Dan Uggla. Unfortunately, it isn't 2010. If it were, we'd be talking about the .287/.369/.508 slash line Uggla. The Florida Marlins (that's right not Miami) second basemen that launched 33 homers and drove in 105 runs. No, it's not 2010 though. Instead, this Dan Uggla is the guy who hasn't sniffed the Mendoza Line since 2013. He hasn't hit more than 10 doubles in a season since 2012, and a 16 home run output a season ago was about the only thing that's gone right for a guy who's bounced between three teams in two seasons. So what does that have to do with Dozier? Fangraphs still sees the Twins second basemen contributing a .244/.318/.437 slash line. He's still projected to be one of the best players in the Twins lineup. Heck, Dozier is coming off of his first season an an All-Star. Again, it's probably not as much about what is, as what's potentially to come from the Mississippi product. A season ago, Fangraphs wrote about the concerns for Brian Dozier as a hitter. He's consistently been a dead-pull guy at the plate, and barring adjustments, he's struggled for periods relying on fastballs. That may have not been any more prominent of a narrative than it was a season ago. In 2015, Dozier pulled a ridiculous 60.2% of balls he put in play. using the opposite field 19.7% of the time during his career, his 15.6% in 2015 was a new low. What Dozier did do a season ago was strike the ball more effectively, generating "hard" contract 29% of the time. Regardless of what his efforts generated, Dozier experienced a different approach by opposing pitchers for the first time in his career. After seeing less than 60% of pitches be fastballs for the first time in 2014, pitchers threw Dozier a career low 53.2% pitches of that variety. He was also dealt a career high 11.3% of pitches registering as changeups. A significant shift in philosophy when it comes to getting Dozier out, pitchers saw what could be the beginning of a concerning trend for the Twins All-Star second basemen. Having made some adjustments, but undoubtedly going through growing pains, Dozier struggled. For the second season in a row, he faded down the stretch, but it's the final numbers that may be the most concerning. Being pitched differently, Dozier owned a 21.0% strikeout rate, the highest of his career, and a 4% jump from where he was during his debut season of 2012. As expected with the increased strikeout rate, Dozier whiffed a career high 148 times, and set a new Twins record (don't worry, Miguel Sano will likely break it in 2016). In and of itself, that's an issue. Combined with the fact that Dozier walked just 61 times, generating an 8.7% walk rate (a nearly 4% drop from 2014), it was a less than perfect storm. Steamer projections actually see Dozier producing a better average and on-base percentage in the year ahead, albeit with decreased power totals, but he'll be entering his age 29 season. Five years in the big leagues under his belt, it's fair to assume there's one or two more worth of solid production in him. What's unfortunate is that leaves the Twins with a question in 2018. A season ago, Minnesota inked Dozier to a four-year, $20 million extension. It's a low risk deal that bought out arbitration years from the Twins best player. Should things play out as they are trending however, Minnesota may be looking at needing to re-up with a player that has exhausted what capable production, and going forward is exactly as predicted. For now, the toughest part of the equation is what to do with the prospect waiting in the wings, Jorge Polanco. No doubt not a shortstop (seriously look at those numbers), Polanco is a major league ready bat that could be counted on at second base. The Twins don't have room for him, and asking him to bide his time for two more years could stunt development. As a trade chip, there's no doubt positive there, but that also leaves the Twins exposed in regards to Dozier's situation. In short, Brian Dozier is going to remain a productive member of the Twins (and arguably one of the team's best players) for at least the next year. What could happen beyond that point is a scary downturn that the Atlanta Braves know about all too well. Dozier has had the deck stacked against him before, but unless pitches continue to come in high and tight, adjust to the slow paced, corner dusting changeup is going to need to be his next feat. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I think the Dozier extension made sense in terms of what they came to agreement on, but I'd have no issues with dealing him either. Polanco, as things stand, is a nice trade chip. He could end up being a pretty big necessity though if Dozier's decline comes quickly.

The problem with trading pen pieces in the scenario you mention is that they'd be untradeable. You can't go sign a legit setup guy for the what the market is commanding, and then deal him when you'd like to bring up a younger arm. The missing piece here is definitely whether the Twins will or won't promote their assets in the pen aggressively. They've allowed themselves the opportunity to do so at least.

As with every offseason, baseball writers and analysts are often observed filling the void by looking at numbers and what may be coming. We pour over prospect lists, and hope that each major league teams shining stars of tomorrow turn out to be just as good as expected. With all of those feelings though, comes that ugly and sometimes less than ideal word: projections. For the Twins, projections do not often see the organization favorably. Obviously there's a handful of factors that contribute to that reality, but some of the most glaring are a seemingly consistent effort to repeat the same processes, whether they work or not. This year, as Fangraphs has introduced their yearly ZiPS projections, nothing is different. There's some good, some bad, and some downright distubring. Looking from a place of positivity, let's start with the good. No one seems to have any sort of clue what to do with Jose Berrios. For me, he's an elite level talent, and has top of the rotation type stuff. I rated him my second best Twins prospect behind only Byron Buxton. He's made a professional career of silencing doubters, and there's no reason to believe that will stop now. ZiPS sees Berrios getting a relatively early call to the bigs (as do I). In 146+ innings, he's projected to strike out 130 batters. That number is also projected to be the highest strikeout total among any Twins pitcher. Keith Law, who's been one of Berrios' biggest skeptics, routinely has questioned whether he'll keep the ball in the yard. He allowed a career high 12 long balls last season, and Fangraphs projections see him surrendering 17 in his first major league season. Although the peripherals aren't projected to be overwhelming (just a 4.18 ERA and 3.82 FIP) it's the comparison that presents a standout point for Berrios. ZiPS notes St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright as Berrios' number one comp. If that ends up being anything near truth, the Twins would have a very legitimate ace at their disposal. From there, things get somewhat less exciting. Looking at the starting lineup, only two players are projected to post an fWAR above 3.0. Last season, Brian Dozier was the only member in that category. With Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton being tabbed to eclipse that total this season, Dozier, Plouffe, and a host of other Twins are expected to regress. Generally the case with most projections, Twins pitching isn't seen favorably either. The starting staff is more mediocre than anything. No one pitcher is expected to post a sub 4.00 ERA though the highest starting ERA is respectable at a 4.62 mark given to Tommy Milone. Essentially, the Twins will have to win games with their offense this year, something that is to be expected with a pitching staff composed of more quantity and depth than it is of quantity. The bullpen isn't given great marks either, but as I have discussed multiple times, I don't believe it will remain in tact for long. Some of the Twins biggest assets are their relief prospects, and they could be some of the most important additions to the big league club in the year ahead. Getting Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and J.T. Chargois up and contributing sooner rather than later should win Minnesota some games. Rounding out the yearly ZiPS numbers is a handful of concerning comparisons. First, there's that of Brian Dozier. His comparison is none other than Dan Uggla. The guy that couldn't presently hit himself out of a paper bag, and has not hit above the Mendoza Line since 2012. While I'd like to discredit the possibility of Dozier turning into Uggla, there's a lot of similarities. Like Uggla, Dozier was a late bloomer, making his debut at age 25 (one year ahead of Uggla). Uggla at his best was a better power hitter than Dozier (30+ HR 07-11), while both striking out and walking at a higher rate. The problem is that Uggla fell off in 2013 slashing .179/.309/.362 despite still hitting 22 homers. Dozier is a dead pull hitter, and can be exploited on the outside edge of the plate. Should that decline happen this season for the Twins second basemen, it would shock me. He's still relatively young, and would be expected to produce for at least another year or two. As he gets into his thirties though, see Dozier's decline be fast and steep like Uggla's would not be a shock, and may be one of the best reasons for the Twins to keep Jorge Polanco around. The other player that provides some cause for concern is top prospect Byron Buxton. ZiPS names Lastings Milledge as Buxton's number one comp. The 12th overall pick in the 2003 MLB Draft, Milledge went on to own just a .269/.328/.395 career slash line in six big league seasons. He never came close to what was projected of him, and has been out of baseball since 2011 (when he was still just 26 years-old). Expecting Buxton to fizzle out is a fool's errand, but there's no doubt 2016 is vitally important for him. After a largely unimpressive debut season, Buxton needs to stay healthy, and flash the tools that have gotten him to this point. Hitting for average, some power, flashing speed, and playing great defense need to all become widely apparent for the Twins centerfielder. He'll enter the year as baseball's top prospect, and he should. The time for delays on breaking out though have passed. Projections, no matter how numbers based, are far from the gold standard. The Twins outdid everything externally expected of them a season ago, but for that to continue, they will once again need to defy what is tabbed as the norm. They are going to need youth to step up in a big way, and they are going to need to promote aggressively getting internal contributions. We're a ways off from meaningful baseball being played, but as was also the case in 2015, the Twins must hope there's more incorrect than not when it comes to the ZiPS numbers Fangraphs revealed. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. 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Agreed, if you're going to do it, you have to be all in. Losses early can't mount, because you can't make them up late. If you want to roll with Abad a month, fine. If Burdi or someone else has a great first month, get them up here.

Thus far, the Minnesota Twins major moves this offseason came before free agency got underway. The club signed Byung Ho Park and traded for John Ryan Murphy. Despite having a rather ineffective bullpen a season ago, the club hasn't really addressed the situation to this point. With the way the market has shaped up however, that may be the best choice. So far, the Twins have taken fliers on players like Fernando Abad and Brandon Kintzler. Signed to minor league deals with spring training implications, it's essentially Terry Ryan and crew asking veterans to prove it. Rather than doling out big money, they've taken the path of least resistance. If that was the only thing the Twins had going for them, I'd have much more concern. The reality is, they don't. The Pittsburgh Pirates just inked former fireballing closer Neftali Feliz to a one-year deal just shy of $4 million. Last season Felix owned a 6.38 ERA split between the Rangers and Tigers. His strikeout rates dipped again, and he continued a career long path of less than ideal walk rates. In fact, Feliz hasn't been reliable (mostly for health reasons) since 2011, a year after he won the Rookie of the Year. With deals like that of Feliz floating around the market, and many teams looking to replicate the dominant bullpen that the Kansas City Royals patented, money has gone over the top. Tony Sipp, who was just a short time removed from a DFA action, will play for a $6 million average annual value over the next three seasons. Thanks to the Royals, and the emergence of bullpen importance, the relief market has exploded. In Minnesota's case though, the best route may actually have been to stand pat. There's a pretty logical argument to be made that it will be Abad who emerges from spring training with a big league roster spot. No doubt both sides could see the mutual benefit of one another, and Abad is just a year removed from a 1.57 ERA and 8.0 K/9 for the Athletics. As a low risk placeholder, Minnesota could have done significantly worse. What makes the Twins best suited to take the plan of action they seem to have embarked on though is not the minor league signings they have inked, but instead their own internal option. Among my 2016 Top 15 Twins Prospects, ten players are pitchers. As of this moment, four of those ten are already relievers. As they saying goes, failed starters make some of the best relievers, so it's safe to assume a transition of at least a couple more will take place. Thus far, the Twins have begun to roll the ball down the path of clearing the way for the fruits of their labor to be unleashed. In drafting players like Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and J.T. Chargois, the Twins have compiled strong relief arms. Rather than go over the top on an inflated pitching market, Minnesota controls its own fate from within the internal talent pool. Looking at what Feliz has been for the majority of his career, there's a solid argument to be made that at least one of Reed, Burdi, or Chargois outproduces him in 2015. Alex Meyer seems to factor into the Twins bullpen, and Tyler Jay could eventually return to that designation as well. As a whole, Minnesota has plenty of projectable contributors already within the organization. Should the Twins decide to slow-play the aforementioned pitching prospects, or not use them at all, it would be quite the unfortunate step backwards. They've opened the door to reworking their relief corps into a strength through internal options, but the process has to continue. Both Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor must be aware and willing to call upon the young arms that truly can help at the next level. By not signing big deal relievers, there's no impending road blocks for the Twins to continue along the current path. The organization must continue to remember that as those prospects begin to force their hand. In all situations, choosing a cheaper or less risky route isn't completely ideal. With the organizations current makeup however, and the handful of solid relief prospects, the Twins may have started down a road that makes a lot of sense in the year ahead. The biggest mistake at this point would be to turn around. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

This is a REALLY good comment. Prospects by definition are projected commodities. It's worth noting that regardless of how high they rank on an arbitrary list, it means nothing until they produce at the highest level.

This is what makes prospect lists the best Seth, they are always great talking points. It's awesome to think Javier could end up being a top 5 type talent by the time he's promoted, and he's so young.