Ted Schwerzler

When it comes to thinking of baseball talent hotbeds, Minnesota probably isn't high on the list. The state deals with cold weather and snow from the better (or worse) half of the year. Regardless of Twins Territory being a passionate grouping of Major League fans, the high school scene doesn't draw as much national attention. There are the outliers however; the Joe Mauer's, Paul Molitor's, and Logan Shore. Sure, Shore isn't yet on the level of a Hall of Famer, and another guy with the potential to reach that rank. What he is however, is a kid from Coon Rapids (a northern suburb of Minneapolis), that has vaulted onto the national stage. Initially drafted by the Twins in the 29th round of the 2013 MLB draft (due to his strong commitment to the University of Florida), Shore did in fact follow through and head to Gainesville. Now a Junior for the #1 ranked Gators, Shore has planted himself atop many draft boards. Through his first three starts, Shore owns a 0.43 ERA giving up just eight hits and one earned run while walking two and striking out 22 in 21.0 innings. He's got a complete game shutout under his belt, and he's been the nation's most unhittable pitcher. In between dominating starts for Florida, I had the opportunity to interview Shore. We talked about his college experience, baseball, and what's to come. Off The Baggy: Having been the Friday starter since almost day one with the Gators, how has your approach to the way you have pitched changed and evolved over your time at Florida? Logan Shore: I think the approach I have has not changed a whole lot of freshman year to junior year. I have always had the approach of attacking hitters with my pitches and I think if anything has changed it would be that I try to pitch more aggressively now. Coach O’Sullivan does a tremendous job of teaching us how to pitch and helping us understand the mental side of pitching. OTB: Tell me about your arsenal on the mound, what pitches you feel you utilize best, and what you feel most comfortable using to attack opposing hitters? LS: I have a three-pitch mix. I throw a fastball, changeup and a slider. My best pitch besides my fastball is my changeup and I feel comfortable throwing that in any count. OTB: Having been dominant in high school for Coon Rapids, what was the biggest change to your game pitching at the collegiate level? LS: I think that the biggest difference and change from pitching at Coon Rapids High School to pitching in the SEC is that anyone in the SEC can hurt you. I have learned that I have to make quality pitches to every hitter in the lineup and learned that I need my two off-speed pitches to get people out, and not just my fastball. OTB: Being drafted by the Twins out of high school and instead choosing to go to college, what do you feel has been the biggest improvement in your game since that time? LS: I think that the biggest thing that I have improved on is my third pitch, which is my slider. I have always been a fastball/change-up pitcher, but utilizing my slider and truly having a three-pitch mix has been my biggest improvement. Also, having the experience of pitching on Friday nights in the SEC has given me confidence moving forward. OTB: Looking ahead to the upcoming draft, what do you see as the biggest area of focus to elevate your game to the big league level. LS: The biggest area of focus for me right now is to get the Gators back to Omaha and win a national championship. After coming so close in 2015 and getting a taste of what it takes to win in in the postseason, I am excited to be a part of such a special team in 2016. As far as the draft goes, I try to not think about it very much. Obviously it is there, and it will be there in June, but I feel the more I, along with the other guys on my team, are focused on winning, the better the draft process will play out for myself and everyone else. OTB: Pitching in the SEC has no doubt seen you go up against some of the game’s best. Battling with 2015 top draft picks Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman is solid preparation for the pro game. What helps you face, and ultimately succeed, against hitters of their caliber? LS: Facing guys like Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman is difficult. The one thing that I do to prepare to face guys of this caliber is know who they are as hitters and pitch to my strengths. I watch a lot of video and do a lot of homework before each start to learn who I am facing, and have a plan of how I want to attack each hitter. The one thing I can always control is how I prepare, and I feel that if I prepare and stay true to my routine the game will take care of itself. OTB: Finally, as a hometown kid, the storybook ending would no doubt be a second selection by the Twins. Envisioning the draft experience as a whole however, what excites you most about the process this time around? LS: I am excited to have an opportunity to potentially be selected by a team in the MLB Draft. It has always been a dream of mine to play professional baseball. Being drafted by the Twins would be an extra bonus on top of that. It is a long season, and a lot still to be done, but I am excited to see what happens. No doubt Logan is focused in the right areas. Working to get back to Omaha, helping the Gators to a 12-1 record to start the year is a great place to be. The winning has come, and as Florida gets into SEC play, Shore will be a catalyst in helping it continue. Focus and determination are equally as important as talent, and for Shore, the trifecta is there. Likely a first round selection in Major League Baseball's June Draft, Minnesota picking 15th will be clued in on the hometown talent. Regardless of where he goes, success is sure to follow Shore. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

On Sunday March 6, Twins Territory was reminded of a somber event. It was the 10 year anniversary of Kirby Puckett's death. No doubt one of the organization's all time greats, it's tough to fathom it having been a decade since his passing. For everything that followed him in his final years, Puckett represented everything that was beautiful for baseball and the Twins while he was involved in the sport. In talking about him, we may have found the missing piece in defying new found analytics. The ten year anniversary of his passing seems like an odd day to point out his flaws as a player. While most of them are well documented and understood, the conversation seems best suited on any other day. Regardless, in taking place, we may be through the looking glass in figuring out exactly what the connection is to statistics, analytics, and how players are viewed. Here's where the talking points got started: And here's where they concluded: Now, there's little room to argue that either of those statements in inaccurate. Misplaced considering the event, no doubt, but accurate nonetheless. The point here however, is that Puckett, and the perception of him is actually quite insightful in regards to the game today and advanced analytics. As baseball has continued to trend towards a game of numbers, and sabermetrics have gained momentum in mainstream media, players are generally evaluated more on paper than ever before. Warne makes that point indirectly without explicitly stating as such. Kirby Puckett is a Hall of Famer, even despite numbers that generally fall somewhere well outside of that norm. Picking up 10 All Star awards, six Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers, he collected just 2,304 hits and 207 homers. He drove in just north of 1,000 runs (1,085), but slashed an impressive .318/.360/.477 over his 12 year career. A continued notion that his career was cut short due to an eye injury tends to tread water when stacked against the fact he retired at the age of 35, having debuted at just 24 years old. During his 12 seasons, Puckett's 44.9 fWAR ranks him 234 all time. That brings us to current Twin, Joe Mauer, whose fWAR sits at 45.1 (ahead of Puckett) with at least a couple more seasons ahead of him. Mauer has yet to reach the 2,000 hits plateau (but should in the next two seasons). He hasn't driven in 1,000 runs, and he probably won't ever hit 200 homers. In fact, Mauer's .313/.394/.451 career slash line actually pales in comparison to that of Puck. A six time All Star himself, Mauer owns three Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers, along with his three batting titles (all as a catcher). The point here isn't to suggest Mauer's career has been one of better production than that of the late Twins hero, but the argument is a pretty solid one. Instead, what Warne led us to is that sabermetrics and analytics have changed the way in which we view the game of baseball completely. Puckett's last season with the Twins was in 1995. At that time, Fangraphs was far from even a realistic thought and numbers generally ended in the nightly box score. Mauer didn't play his first game with the Twins until 2004, as teams around Major League Baseball began to shift towards looking for any competitive advantage they could muster. What that's given us is two very different trains of thought. Among Twins Territorians, you'd be hard pressed to find two players that find themselves at the opposite end of a perception spectrum, despite being incredibly intricately linked. Puckett was heralded because he was a star who made "The Catch," and gave us "We'll see you tomorrow night." Mauer is a one-time Hall of Fame lock, now forced to assume a different type of value while being expected to produce to the non-existing terms of a contract signed with differing circumstances. Sabermetics, analytics, numbers, and statistics will forever have a place in the game of baseball. The more we lend ourselves the opportunity to understand and appreciate all avenues, the further respect can be given, and perspective seen, for major leaguers whose strengths are incomparable. Kirby Puckett was an amazing baseball player, a fringe Hall of Famer, and a Twins fan favorite. His career, and the actual remembrance of it may be the insight we need to separate what was, what is, and what it all means. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

With the Twins now having played their first spring training home game, Paul Molitor got to run out a group of nine regulars. Playing in front of the Hammond Stadium crowd against the Boston Red Sox, Minnesota started what appeared to be a very likely Opening Day lineup. With a month left prior to that being set in stone, it's fair to question if it works. Should everything fall into place, meaning players progress as expected, I'd like to see a configuration look like this at some point in 2016. That said, there's little reason to believe that it makes sense for the Twins out of the gate. What Molitor ran out for the spring training home opener has some merit to it, but there's some parts to nitpick at as well. Going in order, here's how Molitor lined things up in what we can suspect was an Opening Day trial run: Brian Dozier 2B The All-Star second basemen got the leadoff nod, and it was far from unexpected. He batted first for the Twins in 102 games last season, and produced a .246/.313/.499 slash line out of that spot. Ideally, I'd like to see Dozier slide to second or third, and utilize his home run potential with someone on base. Until Byron Buxton can assume this spot however, he's going to be here for the Twins (even if Joe Mauer makes ton of sense). Eddie Rosario LF Here's the first oddity in Molitor's construction. Rosario is a guy I see as a very likely regression candidate. He owned a .748 OPS in 2015, that was heavily bolstered by a major league leading 15 triples. For me, batting a guy that might have put up a high water mark of a .289 OBP in his rookie year, and struck out 118 times while taking just 15 walks, in the two hole is a bit of a reach. Rosario chases pitches a ton, he swings far too often, and as a lineup table-setter, he's not who comes to mind. Maybe he changes course in year two, but I'd rather find out with him batting in the lower half. Joe Mauer 1B This isn't the last place I'd put Mauer, but it's close. My biggest problems here are that Mauer is an OBP-machine (even if that number has taken a dip), but moreso that he pushes Miguel Sano down in the order. If Mauer isn't hitting leadoff for the Twins (a position I believe he'd thrive in), then batting him in the bottom half and allowing his ability with RISP (.352/.466/.456) to play makes sense. Molitor seems set on batting Mauer in the top three however, so Rosario should be the guy who gets bumped. Miguel Sano RF In his spring training debut, Sano walked three times essentially being pitched around. For the homer opener, he put the bat on the ball and raked a double off the Hammond Stadium wall. There's little argument to be made that the 22 year old isn't the most feared hitter in the Twins lineup. Cleanup makes sense, but I want him hitting in the first inning guaranteed, bat him third. Trevor Plouffe 3B One of the best moves the Twins made this offseason was holding onto Plouffe. Although not ideal having to play positional shifts elsewhere, Trevor's bat has become one of the Twins biggest assets. With over 20 homers a season ago, Plouffe looks the part of a late-bloomer. Batting 5th, he should again produce in the power categories, hit a ton of doubles, and ground into a few less double-plays, further boosting his totals. Byung Ho Park DH When the Twins signed Park out of Korea, it was without a doubt for his bat. Having hit over 100 homers the two seasons, Minnesota salivated at the thought of his offensive value. He's going to be a work in progress, but settling in this spring will be big for him. There's probably reason to move him into the cleanup spot if Sano hits third eventually, but for now, 6th continues to let his power play, while not putting too much pressure on him. Eduardo Escobar SS Looking at the configuration Molitor decided to go with, Escobar is a perfect fit for the 7 hole. If someday Buxton transitions to hit leadoff, Escobar makes a bit more sense at the bottom of the lineup. Like Rosario, he doesn't walk much, but his 86/28 K/BB ratio is a good deal better. Even if he slides a bit from the 12 homers he hit a season ago, his 30+ doubles each of the past two seasons make him an asset. He's a great piece at the back end of the lineup. Kurt Suzuki C Zuk is no doubt going to be the Twins Opening Day catcher. He's a veteran who has the respect of the pitching staff. That said, the Twins won't want his player option to vest, and expecting him to be splitting 50/50 with John Ryan Murphy sooner rather than later is a good bet. Suzuki's not going to be a producer on either side of the game, so hitting him 8th makes sense. Your hope is that he lands somewhere between his last two seasons of production. Byron Buxton CF Out of the gate, batting Buxton 9th is the most sensible situation. Yes, his speed plays at the top of the lineup, but as the saying goes, "You can't steal first." Buxton still needs to settle in at the plate. He'll be attacked with a ton of off speed stuff, and so far the results haven't been favorable. He's hit at every level he's been at however, and should come around at the big league level. If he can get somewhere near a .260/.340/.400 slash line, the argument to bat him first should commence. As a whole, the Twins have a good amount of punch one through nine. Most of the changes that could be offered to Molitor's expected Opening Day grouping are nitpicking at best. Arguably the most necessary move is dropping Eddie Rosario further in the order, but that could be showcased as Rosario regresses on his own. If it doesn't happen, or if things click for the Twins left fielder, you've got a solid case to keep him there. Minnesota is going to bank on some uncertainties to start the 2016 season no doubt. The best part of it is that each of those areas has a significant amount of upside, and the retread feeling that has been present in the past is no longer applicable with this group. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

During the 2015 season, few areas were worse off than the Twins bullpen. Minnesota didn't strike anyone out, there were largely without reliable arms, and late game leads were far from safe. Coming into 2016, making an improvement in relief was no doubt a priority, but the execution of that decision seemed to come from different trains of thought. Now with the 2016 season nearly here, the Twins bullpen has largely been decided. Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, and Trevor May are all locks. Casey Fien was offered a new deal through arbitration, and Michael Tonkin is out of options. Former free agent signee Ricky Nolasco needs a place to pitch, and Minnesota needs another lefty in relief. Outside of the question as to whether it will be Fernando Abad or Taylor Rogers, Paul Molitor's relief corps seems decided upon. The group assembled in 2016 will be looking to take some significant steps forward. A year ago, Twins relievers struck out an MLB worst 6.85 per nine innings. A 4.20 FIP was among the lower third in the big leagues, and a 1.7 fWAR had the group tied for 7th worst in the majors. Outside of Glen Perkins' first half, and Kevin Jepsen's late season boost, things could have been markedly worse. So in making the bullpen a priority, Terry Ryan and the Twins needed to fix things. A season ago, they were caught making remarks that the collective media needed to relax, and that things would be just fine. That obviously couldn't have been further from the truth, but those sentiments have not been muttered this time. Instead, the Twins have stood their ground and watched as arms have been signed while they've stood idly by. In fact, it's their inaction that has brought up the question, just what is the narrative for the Twins relievers in 2016? As Matt Thornton, another lefty, was plucked off the market on an MiLB deal, this comment was offered on Twitter: The problem is, I'm not sure that's entirely fair. Without a doubt the Twins stood pat when it came to the bullpen in a larger sense, but in the grand scheme of things, they really didn't. Knowing the club needed a lefty, Ryan went out and nabbed Abad on a minor league deal. An organizational belief that he was tipping his pitches to the tune of a 4.15 ERA a season ago, Abad is just a year removed from a 1.57 ERA and 8.0 K/9. Should he return to any semblance of that, a nominal MiLB deal could end up being the best move of the winter. Minnesota repeated that same type of acquisition in claiming former Brewers lefty Mike Strong, and targeting Dan Runzler along with Buddy Boshers. The trio no doubt has a significantly lower upside than that of Abad, but Minnesota only needs one of the group to stick. Then there's the reality that relief arms are actually an area of strength for Ryan at the present time. Mostly on the right side, Minnesota has Alex Meyer, J.T. Chargois, Nick Burdi, and Jake Reed all looking like they should be capable of big league innings this year. Add in lefty Taylor Rogers, and there's plenty of home grown options that have ceilings largely greater than what the market presented. Back to the point above, how can we actually view a Twins collapse? If things don't work out with Abad, Rogers, or one of the other lefty candidates, what gets said? Should it be that Ryan needed to spend $18 million for three years of Tony Sipp? Maybe $12 million for two years of Antonio Bastardo made sense? The reality is however, that relievers are generally a fickle beast, and something that can be made out of nowhere. Sipp is a couple of years removed from a near 5.00 ERA while Bastardo almost posted a 4.00 mark in 2014. So, is there a right way or a wrong way to be upset should things crash and burn for the Twins? The short answer is that I don't know. However, I've always been a big proponent of bullpens either being creative, or expensive, the middle ground is an ugly desolate wasteland. Right now, the Twins fall in the former category (with a team like the Yankees being the blueprint for the later). Ryan didn't go spend on a position (albeit of need), that is often easy to develop, and one with internal options. He's banking on internal evaluations saying that Abad will work out, and that the kids who've been knocking on the door are ready to go. Big contracts in the pen would have no doubt delayed a more deserving arm (Ricky Nolasco anyone?), and it's time the Twins system becomes utilized at the big league level. Nothing says that Minnesota's relief corps will take a massive step forward in the year ahead. Deciding to go with top prospects and good (low risk) bets though, is a strategy I can applaud. We'll soon see how it plays out, but at the end of the day, I'm not sure to stiff of an argument can be made against the process. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Should definitely be the most likely team to go either way!

With the 2016 Major League Baseball slate set to get underway (or at least the tune-up games that is), the Twins enter the season with a fresh sense of hope. Really, every team does at this point of the year, but Minnesota is looking to take the next step. After narrowly missing out on the playoffs a season ago, playing for October is once again the goal. For Paul Molitor's club though, luck seems to be a large deterrent towards that effort. A season ago, the Twins finished at 83-79. Coming in second place in the AL Central, Minnesota was said to have a good bit of fortune that went their way. Whether that be clutch hitting, timely runs, or big scoring outputs, the Twins saw added benefit in the win column. The question is, to what significance can that be attributed? First, let's take a look at what the luck actually produced for Molitor's squad a season ago. With runners in scoring position, arguably the easiest place to start, Minnesota batter .280/.352/.440 with 36 home runs and 491 runs batted in. Then there's the base runs breakdown. Base runs are an estimate of the number of runs a team "should have" scored given the culmination of their offensive statistics. The metric puts the Twins at +10, or third highest in the big leagues behind just the Cardinals and Royals (both +11). Outproducing their suspected run total by double-digits no doubt put the Twins in advantageous situations. The "luck" helped to bolster a Twins run differential that landed at just -4 on the season, well above the -75 mark that base runs projected the output to be worth. A look at the Pythagorean expectation for the wins and losses Minnesota should have experienced in 2015 isn't kind either. Invented by Bill James, the formula estimates how many games a team "should" have won based upon the number of runs scored and surrendered. Computing based on their output, the Twins finished just slightly above their projected 81-81 finish. For a team that ended the season compiling an 11.5 fWAR (5th worst in MLB), ahead of only the White Sox, Phillies, Rockies, and Brewers, the results are no doubt on the extremely positive side. That brings us to the counter argument however, and asking how much it all matters. In 2015, the Twins beat projections across the board. They were seen unfavorably from the get go, and their production throughout the 162 game slate suggested they should have finished with a worse record than they did, except that didn't happen. The fact that it didn't happen remains a key point looking at the 2016 season. Once again, the Twins are being somewhat discounted in the year ahead. Looking at Vegas odds, the best over/under total puts Minnesota at 78.5 wins. Fangraphs ZiPS projections have Molitor's squad pegged for regression with a final 77-85 record, and a run differential of -35. What we must wonder is regardless of luck, how do the Twins end up there? For 2016, the most major roster turnover is in the removal of Torii Hunter, and the expected additions in the bullpen. Hunter was worth a paltry 0.5 fWAR a season ago (no doubt more valuable in the clubhouse), and a defense liability. He is being replaced by Miguel Sano, who regardless of his defensive acumen (though he could succeed), will far outweigh his predecessor on the offensive side of things. Regardless of the Twins not spending on their pen, they got creative with Fernando Abad, and have a multitude of internal options that should spell a heightened level of production in comparison to a season ago. Giving Molitor full season's of Eddie Rosario (at least defensively), Byron Buxton in his sophomore tour, and Sano for 162 games, a trio of youth should spell positivity for Minnesota. Byung Ho Park provides opportunity to push the Twins run total out even further, and the supplements of players like Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco should be welcomed by Twins Territory. On the mound, Minnesota can pitch. No doubt without a true ace, the Twins have three strong big league starters in Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, and Kyle Gibson. Whether Tyler Duffey holds serve, or Tommy Milone continues to be steady, the Twins have depth options in the likes of top prospect Jose Berrios, and even in likely pen candidate Trevor May. What the situation boils down to is the fact that for almost virtually ever argument against Minnesota, the organization has some sort of an answer. Unproven and without the ceiling of other veteran-laden teams, Molitor still has to be happy about what he has at his fingertips. Good fortune or luck not playing out to the same accord, Minnesota should be able to force plenty of positive situations in the year ahead. Due to the nature of youth and unproven commodities that will be relied upon at Target Field in 2016, it all could crash and burn. More than any other AL Central team however, the Twins seem constructed with the ability to take the division, or end up in the cellar. With luck as their biggest deterrent to falter this season, a better narrative should probably be crafted when looking for potential regression. As stat-driven as baseball has become, the reality is that the numbers rarely cancel out. Minnesota isn't simply going to regress because of creating good fortune a season ago. With a clean slate, the group that will head north from Fort Myers should be equally if not more capable of producing at the clip the 2015 club did, and there's no luck in that. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The snow has melted, the season has changed, and the Twins have embarked on Florida. Spring Training is now well underway, and the Twins are set to kick off their slate of games. As the team positions itself for the meaningful contests in April, it's the March matchups that will pave the way. On the mound to set the action off for the Twins will be Phil Hughes. The question is, what does that mean going forward? Paul Molitor made the announcement that Hughes will be the starter for the Spring Training opener against the Boston Red Sox. While that would seemingly line up for Hughes to have the inside track to be the Twins Opening Day starter, should that end up being the case? A season ago, Phil Hughes experienced more regression than any other Twins pitcher. After generating Cy Young votes in 2014, Hughes totaled a 4.40 ERA and 4.70 FIP in 2015. He still walked virtually no one (just 0.9 BB/9), but he also struck out significantly less batters (5.4 K/9 after an 8.0 K/9 in 2014). The Achilles Heel to his performance was no doubt the longball however. In 2015, Hughes led the league in home runs surrendered (29) and in doing so, posted his worst career mark since giving up 35 as a Yankee in 2012. While no doubt the homers weren't a good addition to Hughes' performance, they also could have signified markedly worse numbers. Over 80% of the balls that left the yard against Hughes were of the solo variety, no doubt saving him from numbers that looked even worse. So, where does that leave Hughes in the year ahead? As a pitcher who generally has alternated solid performance years, 2016 would already line up to be the next strong year. Looking at his numbers though, Hughes also has some reason for optimism. A year ago, over 13% of the fly balls Hughes gave up left the yard, that mark doubled the 6.2% posted in 2014, and was also higher than his 10% career average. He allowed hitters to make hard contact over 31% of the time, a 4% increase from 2014, and also higher than his career average (29%). If he's going to turn the corner back towards looking like the pitcher Minnesota initially signed, the strikeouts will again take a tick upwards, and Hughes will have more batters off balance. For the Twins, Hughes turning things around is no doubt a necessity. The competition for the staff ace shouldn't be a one man race in the season ahead however. Regardless of who starts on Opening Day, both Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson seem to figure into the team's best pitcher in 2016 when the dust settles. A season ago, Santana was slapped with an 80 game suspension as Spring Training drew to a close. Despite taking him a handful of starts to settle in, Santana was virtually unhittable down the stretch. From August 30 through the end of the season (7 starts) Santana owned a 1.62 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to slash just .209/.275/.294 against him. He struck out 47 in 50.0 IP and allowed just 14 free passes. In that time frame, he also surrendered just one home run, while have two double-digit strikeout performances. Looking at what's to come for Santana, the Twins no doubt are looking for a repeat of that late-season performance. Despite signing out of the National League, Santana has been an AL pitcher for virtually his whole career. His best ERA was posted in the AL Central with the Royals during the 2013 season, and his strikeout numbers remained on par with his career averages. When all is said and done, Santana should no doubt be among the Twins best. Then there's Kyle Gibson. Gibson probably presents the most intrigue of the Twins three cemented starters. After taking a step forward in 2015, it's the year ahead that he should be expected to impress even more so. Finishing with an ERA that ranked near the top of the AL (3.84), Gibson also posted career bests in starts (32), innings pitched (194.2), strikeouts (145), WHIP (1.289), H/9 (8.6), and K/9 (6.7). The former Twins first round pick saw the success he was always billed to be capable of. Now rounding out the trio of the capable big league starters, Gibson can continue to settle into his own upward trajectory. More than either Hughes or Santana, Gibson benefited significantly from the addition of pitching coach Neil Allen. Allen, who's a changeup believer, had Gibson throwing the pitch a career high 19.6% of the time (up from 12.5% in 2014). The effectiveness of Gibson's changeup was no doubt helpful in generating more swings and misses (9.8% was a career high in 2015). While there's probably not much stock to put into who becomes the Twins ace, or who toes the rubber on Opening Day, the fact is that Minnesota has three starters all capable of pushing the envelope. With Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, and Jose Berrios contributing behind them, each member of the core group is capable of being a stopper and getting the job done. For the first time in quite a while, Paul Molitor should have a staff capable of respectable numbers as compared to the rest of the league. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As a new Major League Baseball season approaches, a renewed sense of hope imparts itself upon Twins Territorians. After a near playoff run a season ago, Paul Molitor's club will be looking to take the next step forward in the year ahead. Typically, that step isn't taken by every player, as regression candidates rear their heads. By now, you're probably aware that for 2016, my pick is none other than Eddie Rosario. Should that narrative play out, we find ourselves staring at one of the Twins most forgotten men. No doubt, Rosario heads into Spring Training with a grasp on the starting left field job. Someday (and possibly even this year), it may be turned over to German phenom Max Kepler. First though, a hulking Venezuelan will get his [final] crack. Enter Oswaldo Arcia. Before there was Eddie Rosario in left field, prior to the defensive wizardry the position provided a year ago, and before the speed that the Twins employed, the role was Arcia's. Just a year removed from a 20 home run season, Arcia seemingly is everything Rosario is not in left. He doesn't play great defense, covering ground isn't his thing, but he's also no stranger to the long ball. After a successful debut season in 2013, Arcia followed up his performance with a solid Sophomore season as well. On top of the new career high in homers (20), Arcia turned in a triple slash line of .231/.300/.452. His OPS was 18 points higher than in his debut year, and while he still struck out far too often, he kept his similar pace when taking walks. By this point, it had become apparent Arcia's contribution would be in the long ball or bust, and that's something the Twins would need to decide if they could live with. Given just 19 games at the big league level a season ago, Arcia seemed a shell of his former self. While his average was a career best (.276) and his OBP topped out at .338, the small sample size led to almost no power production (just two homers and eight runs batted in). The home runs also were the only extra base hits Arcia generated at the big league level a season ago. Finally, the Twins had seen enough and a demotion came. At Triple-A Rochester, things only got worse for the slugger. Outside of a torrid stretch in July (8 HR 19 RBI .367/.446/.918) his season was a disaster. In 79 games, he hit below the Mendoza Line (.199/.257/.372), while striking out 82 times and drawing just 18 walks. No doubt wanting to get back to the big leagues, he did nothing to warrant the trip and spent September watching from the couch. Now out of options, Arcia must make 2015 look like a mirage. He posted career worsts in swinging strike percentage (19.6%), chased pitches out of the zone over 40% of the time, and generated "hard" contact over 10% less often (just 22.7% of the time) than he had in the first two years of his career. To say that a season ago, Arcia took a step back, would be putting it lightly. Despite reports that Arcia has taken a new focus on the entirety of his game, including his defense, there's little doubt that his production will often be offensively fueled. Now with his back against the wall, he must make things stick in the year ahead. Working in his favor however, is that there should be opportunities. Both Rosario and Arcia bat left-handed, so a platoon situation doesn't make sense for the Twins. However, if he has to start with a bench bat role, Arcia's numbers against righties has to be where he makes his case. Owning an .807 OPS against right-handers (nearly .200 points better than against lefties), Arcia has slugged 30 of his 36 career homers against righties. At some point in 2016, things will come to a head for the Twins left field situation. Rosario could stumble, Arcia will need to hit (for power), and Max Kepler will be looking to weasel his way into the mix. There's a lot of moving pieces, but the guy without options, has been somewhat of a forgotten part of the puzzle. If Oswaldo Arcia's story with the Twins is to have a happy ending, it will have to happen, and now. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

So you want to upgrade from a guy that produced in the top 5-7 SS across MLB qualified players last year? Not sure why, but if so, prepare to give up significant pieces.

It's become a point of contention in some circles that the Minnesota Twins may not have a level of certainty at the shortstop position. Unfortunately, that notion couldn't be further from the truth, at least for the time being. Going into 2016, there's no doubt Eduardo Escobar has earned the right to start every day, and the expectation should be that he'll succeed. Way back when, I touched on the Twins continuing to benefit from the trade that sent Francisco Liriano to the Chicago White Sox. Escobar was the return, and it relatively early on it appeared to be a good one. Over the course of the last season however, that return looked great. Going into the 2015 season, Escobar was the utility man looked at as a secondary option for arguably the infield's most pivotal position. After Danny Santana looked the part of a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2014, he was going to be given every opportunity to start at short for first year manager Paul Molitor. You'd be hard pressed to find many that weren't ok with that decision. Santana looked prime for regression, but his new infield role was one he also seemed capable of taking over. Then the season got underway. It was always fair to assume that Santana was going to take a step back offensively. After owning a .405 BABIP in 2014, there was a less than zero chance he was going to put up the same kind of slash line (.319/.353/.472). What actually took place though was a level of regression that would be teetering on the brink of catastrophe. Not only did Santana regress at the plate, he feel off completely. In 91 major league games during the 2015 season, Santana slashed a paltry .215/.241/.291. He took a grand total of six walks in over 260 at bats, and stuck out nearly 70 times. As bad as his offensive game was though, it wasn't even the real problem. At shortstop, Santana started 65 games and turned in 16 errors while being worth -15 DRS. By all statistical measures, Santana was one of the worst players in all of baseball at the position. Enter Eduardo Escobar. Following Santana's [prolonged] demotion, Escobar was given his opportunity. Fortunately for both Molitor and the Twins, he did everything he could with it. When the dust settled on 2015, Escobar owned a .262/.309/.445 slash line. He provided the Twins with 12 homers and doubled 31 times. His OPS was 4th best among shortstops, better than everyone not named Brandon Crawford, Tulo, or Bogaerts. In the final month of the season, Escobar only got more impressive slashing .280/.331/.486. On the defensive side of the ball, Escobar provided an uptick as well. He ended up starting 71 games for the Twins a season ago, making just four errors. His 2 DRS and 2.6 UZR marks were some of the best posted by a Twins shortstop (and his complete game made him a significantly better fit than the defensive minded Pedro Florimon). Looking at his contributions as a whole, Escobar more than got the job done for Minnesota. At points throughout 2015, it might have been fair to wonder whether or not the Twins would bein on free agent Ian Desmond (who still remains an unsigned FA after rejecting the Nationals qualifying offer). What became apparent as the months drew on however, is that the Twins had an internal option, and a relatively good one at that. Despite having youth with promise at the shortstop position on the farm, both Nick Gordon and Wander Javier being representative of that, Escobar can make the role his for the time being. At just 27 years old, it appears Escobar would be a late-prime player, and someone the Twins can pencil in as they push towards playoff relevancy once again. Far more than simply a stopgap option, Escobar vaulted himself into the conversation as one of the big leagues most complete at a premium spot. Never are the Twins going to see Escobar be a high on base guy, he simply doesn't walk enough. However, he makes a ton of contact, actually decreased his swing and miss tendencies a year ago, and doesn't chase all that often. His approach at the plate should be capable of repeating his 2015 performance, and a full season of that kind of production is only going to benefit the Twins. Sure, Escobar isn't the flashy name that Troy Tulowtizki is, and he may never be another Xander Bogaerts, but asking the Twins to do better is telling them to replace someone that is already competing at a very high level. For the first time since [the thought of] J.J. Hardy, the Twins have the shortstop position figured out. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

First off, thanks for the kind words. Secondly, to your assumption, here's some numbers: 1-2 count: .146/.146/.292 89 AB 42 K 0 BB After 1-2 count: .161/.182/.322 118 AB 56 K 3 BB 3-2 count: .222/.344/.333 27 AB 9 K 5 BB In 474 plate appearances, Eddie Rosario saw a 3-2 count just 32 times

Taking cues from another Twitter conversation, seriously you're missing out if you aren't following along (find me at @tlschwerz), the creativity surrounding baseball moves has been a hot topic of late. When looking at how the Twins have handled player acquisition in recent years, there's something to be said about what has been done well, and well, what hasn't. I first got to thinking about this after reading a very well thought out piece over on Twins Daily. In it, Bill Parker sparks the conversation in regards to what the Twins could have done differently during their years of losing. Payroll and debates about contracts have generally surrounded the mid-market Twins. It's been a point of contention for the fan base, and likely will continue to be. The biggest takeaway from the piece comes down to smart spending, and the lack thereof. Parker discusses past free agent contracts, and what the Twins might have passed on during their seasons of 90 loss seasons. While Terry Ryan and the Twins took dart throws to the effect of a marginal amount of added victories, a big splash likely would not have saved those teams from themselves either. Unfortunately, it's that strategy that continues to be employed when it shouldn't be. That brings us to Mike Bates' piece on Twins Daily. Bates discusses the Twins continuing to operate in a similar manner, despite the situation. While I can nitpick at pieces that I may or may not agree with throughout the article (we all know I think Sano can work in right field), there's a much larger point being hit on. Bates makes two points that should become a virtual backbone when discussing any roster configuration Minnesota employs. He says, "The Twins have a profound lack of ambition in virtually everything they do." Furthering the point, he contends, "Instead of attempting to sign a single free agent starter with a higher upside at some point over the last three years (like a Jordan Zimmermann, a Jon Lester or a Johnny Cueto), and maybe a relative lottery ticket in Hughes, the Twins took small bites at the apple." This leads us to the crux of this piece, and some examples of points in which the Twins seem to get it, and where they don't. Over the past few years, the Twins have spent significant money on three starting pitchers. Phil Hughes was given a three-year, $24 million deal in 2013 that was then extended another two seasons. Following that splash, Minnesota then inked Ricky Nolasco to a four-year, $49 million deal. Rounding out the group, the next offseason saw the Twins land Ervin Santana on a $55 million contract spanning four seasons. Regardless of how the production has looked, only two of those moves ever made sense the day they were signed. With free agent contracts being earned off of past production, and some hope for an immediate return, pushing on upside is where a middle-of-the-road team like the Twins should be. Both Santana and Hughes had glints of upside. Hughes owned an ERA in 2013 nearly three points lower on the road (3.88) than at Yankee Stadium (6.32). Getting out of the homer friendly park suggested he could be a significantly more effective pitcher in a different venue. That narrative immediately proved true in 2014, and despite 2015 regression, still had him post his third best ERA since 2011. For Santana, he was a guy that had a solid track record of an ERA somewhere in the middle-to-high three range. He was experienced in the AL, and posted one of his best seasons as a pro with the Royals just a year prior. Again, upside loomed large for the Twins. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Nolasco checked himself in. A career National League pitcher (spending eight year with the Marlins and briefly the Dodgers), a mediocre at best 4.37 ERA suggested who he was. His 3.76 FIP mark and 7.4 K/9 were more than likely only going to decrease in the less favorable, American League. Despite plenty of detractors, the Twins made him a $12 million man. Similar misses have been made on much smaller scale minor league deals as well. It's more than fair to argue nearly any minor league deal has no downside for a major league club, the Twins don't always leave themselves much upside when looking to bring those types of veterans into the fold. While all minor league transactions may be low risk, they are not created equal. Asking for upside to be proven or earned rather than assumed is something that squeezes more from even the most minor acquisitions. That very suggestion came about recently from a commenter suggesting dart throws as nothing more than that. It's unfair to assume however that a guy like Blaine Boyer (coming off a 2.93 FIP) wouldn't be a better use of a spring invite, than the walking corpse of Jason Kubel (who had been demoted to the minors hitting .216). Ideally, a 25 man roster isn't going to be reliant upon a player looking to make the club following a minor league deal. Picking statistical inefficiencies to exploit no doubt helps to push contributions upward if you're going to take a flier however. There's belief behind Fernando Abad working, and Carlos Quentin is a worthy flier. If you had to bet on another Jason Kubel type though, you'd no doubt hope Ryan would aim higher. Creativity is a very broad term, and employing it while 29 other terms are working towards the same goal is a tough ask. That said, looking for the Twins to target a more serious ceiling in free agency, rather than just checking a box is a safe place to start. Hoping for the dart throws to be aimed more towards the bullseye rather than just hitting the board is something else fair to ask for. No one expects Terry Ryan to reinvent the wheel, but having a more direct focus is something the Twins could afford to embrace. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

If you follow me on Twitter (and if you aren't you should: @tlschwerz), you know that going into a new Twins season, there's generally a good bit of optimism. While toeing the line far away from being a homer, I generally try to place a good deal of scrutiny on regression candidates going into any given season. A year ago, it was Danny Santana and Kurt Suzuki that could be seen from a mile away. This season, my point of contention has been Eddie Rosario. The talking point that has been Eddie Rosario has been met with some skepticism. He had a great 2015 campaign, and was an American League Rookie of the Year candidate. Considering my hesitation to heap praise on the rookie standout, I've received plenty of questions like the one below: "Why do you hate on Rosario? We've seen him play well in the majors, while Kepler is still a "prospect"." @JoeyKent52 That leads us to the crossroads this piece is destined to address. Hate or distaste isn't the right categorization, but why is Eddie Rosario my most logical candidate for regression in 2016 among Minnesota Twins? Here we go. In his rookie season, Rosario did a lot of things well. His slash line rested at .267/.289/.459. He led the big leagues in triples with 15, and he clubbed 13 homers. Defensively however, is where he showed even more value. With his glove in the outfield, Rosario was worth 11 defensive runs saved, and contributed 16 outfield assists. On the surface, his debut season was a resounding success. Leaving spring training, Rosario was my pick to be the first of the Twins prospects called up. He looked the part of a guy pushing for immediate 25 man roster consideration, and being a former top 100 prospect, should have been capable of helping a Twins team looking to return to relevance. His narrative played out that way, but also now supports a different narrative going forward. 2015 saw the Twins send Rosario to the plate 474 times, being credited with 453 at bats. Across that action, he walked a grand total of 15 times, and struck out a resounding 118 times. He put together multiple stretches of eight or more games without a walk, including an 18 and 19 game stretch without drawing a free pass. In 35 games last season, Rosario struck out at least twice. Bad enough on their own, the primary numbers were supported by less than ideal secondary numbers. The Twins left fielder owned a 14.5% swinging strike rate while chasing pitches out of the zone 46% of the time. He was also making contact on just north of 75% of pitches he was taking hacks at. Pitchers also were able to exploit Rosario's free swinging tendencies in challenging him early. He often got behind in counts as he faced first pitch strikes north of 65% of the time. When making contact, Rosario saw the ill effects of his approach at the plate. Putting balls in play with "hard" contact just 29% of the time, Rosario often relied upon "medium" contact (52.8%) to get him on base. Utilizing his speed, Rosario often was looking to beat out balls with a lower trajectory, hitting line drives or ground balls over 59% of the time. Unlike Santana of 2014, Rosario's numbers were not inflated by an unrepeatable batting average on balls in play (just .332 in 2015). Now that we have the detractors to put some context to what took place in 2015, it's worth looking at what's next for Rosario and the Twins. For both parties, the floor is a place that can be somewhat comfortable. Going into 2016, Rosario is going to be the Twins Opening Day left fielder, and his defensive prowess should play no matter what. It's his offensive ability that I expect to be the high water mark. Should 2015 go down as Rosario's best season at the dish, Minnesota will have some decisions to make. No doubt Max Kepler still has to prove his worth at the major league level, but there's significant reason to believe that he will be a far better big leaguer than Rosario. Should Eddie stumble significantly, Kepler is the kind of depth any team would be envious to have. In the scenario that a swap is made, Minnesota should find themselves with an All Star capable type player in Kepler playing every day, and a very solid defensive replacement or fourth outfielder type in Rosario. If the narrative above plays out, Rosario's story isn't one of complete doom for the Twins. he still serves a purpose even with his 2015 being a mirage. At this point, Rosario could represent a nice trade chip for the Twins, but that's a different argument altogether. It would be nice to see Rosario's approach at the plate change, but for a guy who's displayed a worsening OBP as he's risen through the system, it's not something I'd bet on. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Just my opinion, but there's no way Buxton shouldn't be in your Opening Day lineup.

As February quickly comes to a close, the Twins are ready to get fully underway with spring training activities down in Fort Myers. Pitchers and catchers have reported, with most of the roster following suit. With Paul Molitor eyeing an improvement on a strong first season, he knows that his club has some areas to work on. Minnesota found themselves in a good deal of beneficial situations a season ago. The club, more often than not, excelled in clutch or high leverage situations. Despite having a bullpen deficiency, the offensive prowess generally kept them in games. With a quality pitching staff and added pop in the lineup for 2016, the Twins feel as though they have put themselves in a position to succeed. Now one of the questions that remains unanswered for the Twins, is just how the lineup will take shape. I've discussed how I would set the lineup for the bulk of the 2016 season previously, but the leadoff batter still remains a point of contention. There's little reason to believe it won't be Brian Dozier, and the hope is that at some point Byron Buxton would take over, but in the long run, what's actually best for Minnesota? Realistically, there aren't many candidates, but let's take a look at the few Molitor has to sort through in 2016. Brian Dozier .236/.307/.444 Dozier is going to be the Twins leadoff hitter on Opening Day. He's got the most experience, is the easiest fit, and gives Molitor some immediate stability. That doesn't necessarily mean he's the best fit long term however. His .307 OBP in 2015 was his worst mark since his rookie season, and he set a new single season strikeout record for the Twins (148). While the power numbers went up, Dozier walked less, and missed more (he owned a career worst 9.0% swing strike rate). Although Dozier does sell out for pull power (pulling the ball over 60% of the time), he generated a career best 29.0% hard hit rate a season ago. Then there's the fact that Dozier was actually better leading off in 2015 (.246/.313/.499) than he was batting second (.225/.292/.366). My biggest distaste for Dozier batting first is the amount of wasted (solo) home runs, but I suppose it's something you can live with. Byron Buxton .209/.250/.326 Ideally, Buxton is a prototypical leadoff hitter. He's fast and gets on base, but if you look at the line above, none of that was remotely true in his first big league season. Baseball's top prospect owned a 44/6 K/BB ratio, and had a swinging strike rate of nearly 14%. The good news however is that should be far from what Minnesota can come to expect from the elite Buxton. Across his two full seasons of minor league ball (2013 & 2015), Buxton slashed .334/.424/.520 and .305/.367/.500 respectively. His career minor league .384 OBP is more than impressive, and he's generated a ton of contact at the plate during his professional career. Obviously, it has to translate at the big league level, but when it does, there's no doubt Buxton has to be the Twins table setter. Eduardo Escobar .262/.309/.445 There's very little case to be made for suggesting Escobar as a leadoff man. Molitor likes speed, and while Escobar has some of it, he's far from elite in that category. He does play a leadoff type position at short, but that's really where things ends. Escobar just doesn't take walks, and his OBP has generally suffered because of it (just a .303 career OBP). It's not necessarily an indictment of Escobar as a player, but there's really no good reason to suggest leading him off. Hopefully his power surge in 2015 was real, and he could continue to blossom as a hitter, it should just happen at the lower third of the order. Joe Mauer .265/.338/.380 Arguably the oddest inclusion in this group, but one that shouldn't be ignored. In his career, Mauer has just two plate appearances (no at bats) batting first in the lineup. He doesn't possess the speed threat generally desired for the role, and Molitor has said plenty of times that Joe won't bat first. In fact, it appears almost certain he'll bat second for the Twins in 2016. However, leadoff may be the thing that benefits this version of Mauer most. Despite declining averages the past two seasons, Mauer has posted .361 and .338 OBP respectively. He takes walks, and while he strikes out more, he also generates extra base hits (61 doubles over the past two seasons). As a table setter, Mauer getting on base ahead of power threats like Dozier, Byung Ho Park, and Miguel Sano makes a ton of sense. It's probably not even going to happen, but Mauer the leadoff man, or Mauer hitting somewhere around 6th could be the best thing for his career. At the end of the day, the Twins are almost certain to employ Brian Dozier as their table setter. While it's somewhat of a square peg in a round hole, it's a situation that Byron Buxton can help to change. The quicker things click for him offensively, the faster the shuffle happens. When that day comes, Molitor will once again have to re-evaluate how he rounds out his starting nine. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Now with every Major League Baseball team having hit their pitcher and catcher report dates, the upcoming season feels as close as ever. Despite snow being on the ground yet in some parts of the country, baseball is ready to bring back the feelings of summer. Prior to the action kicking off however, we have to take a look at how things are expected to play out. Back in January, I outlined how I saw the AL Central taking shape. With the World Champion Kansas City Royals again pacing the group, it was a collection of five teams with no clear cut favorite. Now that the Las Vegas Superbook has unveiled it's over/under wins totals for each team, it's time to break down what makes sense in baseball's closest division. Cleveland Indians 85.5 Yesterday (February 21, 2016) I offered up the following opinion on Twitter, "Despite being the favorite at multiple outlets, I have no faith in the Indians ability to win the AL Central in 2016." Hilariously, that tweet ended up going viral thanks to the Indians official account being a bit less than thrilled with my subtweet. Regardless of the feelings coming from the club itself, I stand by that thought process. Cleveland's rotation is good, with an opportunity to be very good. The question is whether or not that offense can score enough runs. I don't see the Indians winning the central, and 86 wins may accomplish that. When it comes to Terry Francona's group, I'm taking a pass. Verdict: Under Kansas City Royals 83.5 Let's be clear, I've been down on the Royals for quite some time, and continued to be even after their World Series loss of 2014. That being said, the time in which I continue to scoff at Ned Yost's club has come and gone. Going into the 2016 season, Kansas City absolutely has to be the favorite to win the AL Central. Sure, the Royals rotation is an absolute joke, and their offense is very likely going to take a step backwards. I don't believe in Lorenzo Cain being an MVP candidate for a second straight year, and while I'd love for Mike Moustakas to replicate his 2015, I think he more or less takes a slight step backwards. When the dust settles though, this club knows how to win, and they should do so more than 84 times. Verdict: Over Detroit Tigers 80.5 Laying some ground work here, I don't like the Tigers, and neither do the over/under numbers. 81 wins would constitute a .500 season, but would also be an increase of eight wins from where Detroit finished in 2015. For a team that is looking to stave off regression, it's a worthy cause that may not end up playing out. The Tigers have plenty of questions coming into the 2016 season surrounding their current roster. What Justin Verlander is going to be available? Can Anibal Sanchez and Miguel Cabrera stay healthy? What kind of contributions will manager Brad Ausmus get (or need) from a relatively poor farm system? At the end of the day, the Tigers should be better than they were a year ago, but the eight win jump is probably a bit too rich for my taste. Verdict: Under Chicago White Sox 80.5 The White Sox are an interesting team to peg in 2016. They spent relatively heavily last offseason, and ended up falling flat. Totaling just 76 wins last season, there's no doubt manager Robin Ventura was hoping for significantly better. Improvement should be coming this season however. Unlike the Tigers, the White Sox rotation is actually good, and has youth on its side. Chris Sale is among baseball's best pitchers, and having Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon behind him makes for a fearsome trio. The offense will continue to be formidable for Chicago, especially considering additions of Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie. If I'm taking a bottom of the division team to make a turnaround, it's the White Sox. Verdict: Over Minnesota Twins 79.5 In 2015, few teams in baseball were more lucky than Minnesota. With runners in scoring position, the Twins generated hits at a ridiculous pace. They found themselves coming up big in clutch situations far more often than not, and there's no doubt the win category thanked them for it. What's unfortunate about all of those facts is that they are unrepeatable from a conscious standpoint. Looking at the Central as a whole, there's probably no team with a higher probability than the Twins to win it, or finish dead last. Minnesota is going to be able to pitch, and should have both an improved staff and pen from a season ago. The offense will be there, and should have a lot of pop, but there's going to be a ton of strikeouts. Paul Molitor's group will need things to go their way more often than not. It could happen, but it also very likely may not. Verdict: Over For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I expect Santana to continue upon how he ended 2015, and Hughes to be much better. Gibson's 2016 should also be his best season. Wins though really aren't reflective of all of that.

Going into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins have plenty on their plate when it comes to expectations. After having a winning season for the first time since 2010, and making a push for the playoffs, second year manager Paul Molitor will have his hands full when trying to fight off taking a step backwards. In 2015, the Twins did some things really well, but maybe more importantly than anything, they were handed a good deal of luck. Playing well above average in high leverage situations, and being gifted opportune situations, Minnesota took advantage as well as any team in baseball. Expecting those scenarios to replicate themselves isn't a good bet, so the Twins will need to push the envelope on their own. Should the Twins find themselves in an opportune position come October, some of the following bold predictions will no doubt have to play out. Without further ado, here we go. Your 2nd annual Off The Baggy bold predictions for the Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer Will Hit .300 Again This offseason, Mauer has spoken off the repercussions he has dealt with following his concussion troubles from behind the plate. Most notably, his vision problems have caused him to have trouble picking up the ball at the plate. Another season removed from the traumatic brain injury, Mauer will hit over .300 for the first time since the 2013 season. At this point, he's settled in defensively at first base, and now it's time for his bat to come around. The power stroke won't be there, but Mauer should be capable of producing a .305/.390/.410 slash line. He's got extra lineup protection, and if Molitor dropped him in the lineup, an even bigger spike should be expected. Alex Meyer Will Be An Impressive Piece Of The Twins Pen In 2015, few parts of the Minnesota roster were worse off than the relief corps. Outside of an unreal first half by closer Glen Perkins, the group struck out no one, and couldn't be counted upon to hold down a lead. This year, flame throwing youth such as Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and J.T. Chargois should change that. Before all of them though, former top prospect Alex Meyer should make the difference. Meyer know doubt took his lumps as a starter in Triple-A during the 2015 campaign. Seen by many as a reliever long term though, the tall hurler put it together at the end. Deserving of a September call up, Meyer owned a 0.79 ERA and allowed just a .192/.293/.205 slash line against across his final 10 games (22.2 IP). In that time frame, he struck out 22 while walking just 10. With Meyer, there's always going to be heightened walk issues, but he's also capable of blowing it by big league hitters. 2016 should see Meyer become one of the most untouchable pitchers in the Twins bullpen. Goodbye To Jorge Polanco Or Eddie Rosario Defensively, you'd be hard pressed to find a better rookie in 2015 than Rosario. He gave the Twins 16 assists, was worth 11 defensive runs saved, and put up a 7.4 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). As a defender, Rosario was worthy of the highest praise. Offensively though, the story was much more smoke and mirrors. Despite a respectable .267/.289/.459 slash line, his numbers were bolstered by an unrepeatable 15 triples. The rookie swung and missed just shy of 15% of the time, and chased out of the zone nearly 50% of the time, neither a recipe for success. Coming to Polanco, the story is virtually the opposite. Forced into playing shortstop, despite arm concerns, due to Brian Dozier holding down second base, Polanco struggled. In 102 games between AA-AAA in 2015, Polanco committed 28 errors at short. In fact, he totaled eight errors in just 19 games at the Triple-A level. His bat has rarely been a question, and his .288/.339/.386 slash across both levels suggests it's major league ready. Unfortunately with the Twins, he's a man without a position. At some point in the year ahead, Max Kepler should push Rosario for playing time in left field. Should Rosario continue to swing and miss, he becomes a 4th outfielder for the Twins in a best case scenario. With value as high as it may even be, a trade could be the Twins best move. Similarly with Polanco, Minnesota will be forced into a decision. Dozier isn't moving any time soon, and Polanco hasn't given the Twins much defensive hope. Packaging him for some sort of return could be a good bet in the year ahead. Byung Ho Launches 30 Homers Surprising most of the baseball world, the Twins ended up winning the bid for the KBO superstar. Park comes to the Twins on an incredibly team friendly deal, even if things don't work out. The expectation though, should be that they will. Fresh off of two 50 home run seasons in Korea, Byung Ho brings his talents to the major leagues. Having struck out 142 and 161 times in the past two seasons respectively, Park is going to eclipse the 200 strikeout mark for the Twins. Major league pitching will present a new test for him, but the 29 year old should also bring plenty of talent to the plate on his own. There's no doubt going to be an acclimation period, but Park surpassing the 30 home run barrier seems like a pretty good bet. Fellow KBO star, Jung Ho Kang smashed 15 homers for the Pirates in 2015 despite playing just 126 games and starting slow. Park, the superior talent, should dwarf that number and have the Twins thanking him for it. Jose Berrios Impersonates Jacob deGrom More than any time in recent memory, the Twins have significant pitching depth. With a handful of capable arms, they are looking for some to rise to the top. Enter top pitching prospect Jose Berrios. I expect him to debut sometime in May, and make over 20 starts for the Twins. With that kind of run in front of him, I expect the hard working Puerto Rican to push for Jacob deGrom type rookie numbers. In his rookie season, deGrom won the NL Rookie of the Year behind a 2.69 ERA and a 9.2 K/9 while walking just 2.8 per nine innings. He gave up just seven homers and pitched just over 140 innings for the Mets. Berrios actually got better at Triple-A (2.62 ERA as opposed to 3.08 at Double-A) and owned a ridiculous 1.08 ERA across his final four starts. Berrios tallied two double-digit strikeout games in 12 Triple-A starts, and added two more starts with nine sat down. Often discounted by national types, Berrios should come onto the scene and immediately be viewed as an ace for Minnesota. There you have it, your five bold predictions for the 2016 Minnesota Twins. No doubt not all of them will happen, but each of them presents a very solid opportunity for the Twins to bolster their chances at a realistic playoff run. Going out on a limb and suggesting what may be a bit of a reach, only puts the situation in play to be something to strive for. With the Twins bold predictions now handled, I'll leave you with this: Royals Win The Central, But No Team Wins Or Loses 90 Games Somewhat similar to my feelings last year on the latter half, I'll give the Royals their due in the former part of this equation. Coming off a World Series win, it's probably time to stop picking against Kansas City. I hate their rotation, and don't expect some of the offensive pieces to be as good as they were (Moustakas/Cain), but that probably isn't enough to knock them out of the top spot. With no real clear cut favorite in the division, no team should run away with things, or fall too far behind. The Central should be a division that beats up on one another, and a group of teams in which no one is great or equally horrible. What that gives baseball fans is a full season worth of games that all make the outcome incredibly important. Spring Training is nearly in full swing, and it's time to welcome back Major League Baseball. Here we go. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Joe Mauer has been a living embodiment of what the Minnesota Twins represent for nearly his entire career. He's the milk-drinking, Minnesota-nice, head-down, hard working ballplayer that has been the face of the franchise for the better part of the last 10 years. After trending downwards for the past few seasons, it's fair to wonder when Mauer's reign comes to an end. The immediate and shortest response is that the time has not yet come. Sure, each of the past two seasons, Mauer's numbers have gone in the wrong direction. After batting a career worst .277/.361/.371 in 2014, Joe followed it up with an even worse .265/.338/.380 slash line last season. Although he hit double-digit home runs (10) after just four in 2014, his performance was largely buoyed by timely hitting in situations with runners in scoring position. His two year splits aren't good, and neither is the trend he's currently following. That said, there's absolutely reason for hope. There's little room to argue that Mauer's production has been sapped by anything other than significant brain trauma. Despite the documented concussions that he's had to deal with behind the plate, the beating he took playing catcher also did him no favors. Although Mauer has since moved to first based, he's noted that vision issues have continued to persist, and no doubt, his athletic ability has decreased to a certain extent. A season ago, Mauer played in 158 of 162 games for the Twins. As he further distances himself from the serious concussion issues he's dealt with, there's hope that his abilities begin to either somewhat return, or diminish at a slower pace. Following up a season in which he played the most games in his career, the Twins can only hope that 2016 is the next step in that turned corner. Going into the year, Steamer projections have Mauer slated for a .274/.355/.390 slash line. He's projected to come in just under double-digit home runs (with 9) and see a slight dip in RBI (63). Mauer has always been more of a doubles hitter, and the projections see him nearing 30 (28) again in 2016. After posting a 0.3 fWAR in 2015, the expectation is that he improves by a full win (1.3). In total, that's production the Twins could absolutely be happy with. Looking at where Mauer tops out at, age begins to become as much of a question as does the previous injury concerns. This being Mauer's age 33 season, it's probably now or never for the turnaround. A few days ago on Twitter, I offered the opinion that Mauer has a chance to hit .300 in 2016, but if he doesn't he won't ever again. That seems like a pretty fair assessment, and a relative summary of where I believe Mauer's career to be at. While he is not old, he's also not young by baseball's standards. His previous brain injuries have taken the best parts of his game from him, and if we don't see a resurgence now, we likely never will. At this point, it's in the Twins best interest to find out if that resurgence is coming. Regardless of the fact that Mauer will never hit like a true first basemen, being a 1.0+ fWAR player still puts him in the asset category to manager Paul Molitor. Minnesota shuffled positions this offseason in moving Miguel Sano to the outfield and bringing in Byung Ho Park. As things stand today, having Trevor Plouffe, Sano, Park, and Mauer all in the lineup gives the Twins the best chance to win. Should the summer months roll around and Mauer have regressed even further, the argument could begin to be made to look at other options. For now however, that shouldn't be the case. If you want to move mauer down in the lineup (and I would), it makes sense. Asking him to be a replacement player at this point is jumping the gun however. His production has to be tied to logical expectations of what he is both capable of and helps the Twins, not what is deemed acceptable for the position he plays When the dust settles on the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Twins should have a pretty clear picture of where they can go with Joe Mauer. The season ahead is one that needs to play out for that picture to reveal itself however. Making assumptions or decisions based upon what has happened in his first two years at a new position is too knee jerk for me. Let the year ahead play out, and then begin to talk through the hard realities that may lie ahead. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

And you could argue that Sano makes that design a reality. Having Plouffe and Sano in the lineup is ideal. Kepler can still take over in LF when Rosario struggles. Really the only moving piece here is Mauer, and that probably doesn't need to happen until he really bottoms out.

While the bar may need raising, right fielders are generally more about arm strength and completing the basics. Neither Cruz nor Bautista should be showing of fielding drills, but they're both among baseball's best at the position. Sure, their offensive game carries them, but so too will Sano's.

This offseason, the Minnesota Twins and Terry Ryan announced that they'd be moving their hulking slugger to right field. Despite having DH'd for the majority of 2015 and having played in the infield thus far, Miguel Sano was moving on to greener pastures. The changes has been met with skepticism, but it actually makes a lot of sense. Let's start off internally. Minnesota employed Torii Hunter in right last year. He gave Paul Molitor a .240/.293/.409 slash line on offense, while making six errors in the field en route to a -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) total, and a 0.3 UZR (ultimate zone rating). In total, he was worth just 0.5 fWAR and was almost solely valuable for the locker room presence he was toted to bring with him. Considering that narrative, it's pretty plausible to suggest that Sano is immediately going to be better for Minnesota than hunter was. Offensively, in just 80 games, the Dominican slugger posted a .269/.385/.530 slash line along with 18 homers and 52 runs batted in. By all indications, Sano is going to be an offensive juggernaut for years to come. Considering that offensive prowess, and the low bar Hunter left in right, Sano should have no problem settling in. From there though, it's also a legitimate argument to look at Sano among baseball's best in right field. Purely from an offensive standpoint, Sano takes a back seat to no one. After posting a 2.0 fWAR across just half a season, Steamer projects Sano to improve that mark to a 3.4 fWAR in 2016, and that may be conservative. Defensively, Sano shouldn't hurt his value too significantly (if at all), and a full season of offense could definitely vault him into the realm of a 4.0 fWAR player. Looking at what right field offers across the landscape of big leaguers, Sano would come in 7th (just behind Jose Bautista) should he reach that 4.0 fWAR mark. The players ahead of him would be few, and include just Bryce Harper, Jason Heyward, Curtis Granderson, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz, and the aforementioned Bautista. Looking at that group, it's also fair to suggest that with any bit of acclimation to his new role, Sano could overtake everyone from Granderson on down. Pushing Sano to right field, while maybe not the most well received, seems to be shaping up like the correct move. A gifted athlete, Sano should have very little trouble once he settles in. Being a third basemen, it's more than fair to suggest that standing in right field would be a much less taxing defensive role. Utilizing his quickness from the hot corner, and his arm strength, Sano possesses some unteachable abilities. Surprisingly fleet of foot for his size, Sano can also be taught many of the nuances the position will demand should he commit to putting in the time. On the surface, it's totally understandable to be somewhat taken aback or skeptical of the Twins decision to follow through with the Sano to the outfield campaign. When taking a deeper look at how it may play out though, there's little reason to suggest it doesn't put Molitor's best lineup on the field. Even if things work out moderately well, Minnesota will have to be pleased. At the end of the day, if Miguel Sano can't play right field, he's not going to be able to play third base. The assumption though should be that he can, and will play right field. With a little bit of work and some luck, he could vault himself into the best at the position in The Show, and that's no small feat. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As much as Nolasco may be unhappy, he's got no one but himself to blame. I think logically, he can see that, and the Twins know that. Duffey is going to have to earn his spot, but Pelfrey is also going to have to force him out of it.

Recently Off The Baggy took a look at what needs to play out for the Twins down in Fort Myers to start 2016 off on the right foot. Coming off a season of exceeded expectations, it's important to keep the momentum moving forward. It's hard to be optimistic without looking at what also could end up being detractors however. While the AL Central is far from a juggernaut in the year ahead, their should be a good deal of parity. Expecting the Twins to be in the thick of things is probably a good bet, but they also profile as a team ripe for regression. With their win total being set by many right around 77, Paul Molitor will have to do what he can to stave off the step back for his club. Down in Fort Myers, here's what the Twins need to avoid in order to sidestep a stumble out of the gate: Another Misstep For Meyer When Baseball Prospectus released the PECOTA numbers, Alex Meyer was among the Twins names needing to be looked at. His ERA in the low 3.00 range would be a welcomed addition to a mediocre 2015 Minnesota pen. Meyer may not make the club out of Spring Training, but he absolutely has to push the envelope. Now in his age 26 season, this needs to be the year he contributes at the big league level. Florida can't be filled with walks and inefficiency for the former top prospect, it's time for Meyer to break out. Buxton Goes North...East There's been a narrative conveyed far too often this offseason, and that's one of Byron Buxton not being the Twins Opening Day center fielders. Should that end up being the case, the Twins (and Major League Baseball's) top prospect would have fallen extremely flat on his face. In a scenario where Buxton goes to Rochester, his spring would've had to have been filled with next to no competent approach at the plate and horrible results. Continuing to suggest the narrative would seem to convey a belief that the worst is ahead for Buxton. At this point, Minnesota (as well as everyone else) should be operating under the belief that it's Buxton or bust, and it needs to be. Condition For The Haul The past two seasons, the Twins have watched two of their most important contributors hit massive second half collapses. Both Brian Dozier and Glen Perkins have struggled down the stretch (Perkins really only last year), and that needs to become a thing of the past. Molitor can't afford to have his big bats produce only part of the season. Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Byung Ho Park, and Miguel Sano need to drive the Twins all season long. Whether getting into a groove or staying in pristine condition, the Twins bats (and their closer) need to put in a full 162. Keep Surprises Out Of The Picture At the end of the month long grind that is spring training, the Twins watched their expected ace be nailed with an 80 game suspension in 2015. That set plans in place to have Mike Pelfrey rejoin the rotation, and push the Twins in an uncomfortable spot right out of the gate. While you'd hope another drug related suspension isn't looming, injuries popping up need to be kept at bay as well. In 2016, the Twins will have some depth to their advantage, but it will be best utilized by players pushing each other rather than out of necessity. A Perfect March, Not November Sure, spring training is a must in baseball, but it's generally reflective of very little. Under Molitor, the Twins surprised a season ago. The focus needs to be on making that playoff push and getting to November, and that focus starts in spring training. While getting acclimated and conditioned is a must for the entire organization, a March focus isn't going to yield the results Minnesota wants. Keep production in perspective, and understand that the first month is simply a building block for what's yet to come, not the other way around. It's probably a bit too over the top to suggest the Twins have a playoff team right now for the 2016 season. Considering the possibility for regression though, pushing the win total upwards is a great goal and focus to hone in on. Should the Twins bypass a step backwards, this team may actually be ahead of where it should be with its youth, and set itself up nicely for years to come. It all starts in Fort Myers though, and making sure to cease any of the above narratives from playing out is a very good thing. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Not having to expose "depth" due to injury is key.