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Ted Schwerzler

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  1. The Minnesota Twins have had a multitude of issues to start the 2016 Major League Baseball season, and it really shouldn't be lost on anyone that the catcher position is one of them. Between Kurt Suzuki and John Ryan Murphy, neither has done anything to clarify things for Minnesota moving forward. If the club is going to be competitive in 2017, allowing the role to be a black hole can't continue to happen. Despite the unlikely emergence of Juan Centeno in his brief stint with the big league club, it's pretty unfair to tab him as a future answer. Suzuki is in the final year of his time with the Twins, and would need over 485 plate appearances for his 2017 option to vest (he's currently on pace for 356). Considering Terry Ryan gave the Hawaiian an extension after an out-of-nowhere All Star first half in 2014, a fall in production should've been all but expected. Through the club's first 35 games, Suzuki has played in 23 contests. He owns a horrid .191/.250/.265 slash line and has logged just four extra base hits. His 23% caught stealing rate once again falls well below the 32% league average, and he's rarely been known as a pitcher's friend in the framing department. Playing a position generally acceptable to be heavily an offensive or defensive asset, Suzuki has mastered being neither at this point. Behind him, John Ryan Murphy has done little for Minnesota as well. The return from the Yankees for former Twins outfielder Aaron Hicks, Murphy played in just 11 games for the Twins prior to being demoted to Triple-A. He owns a .075/.119/.100 slash line on the year and picked up just a lone extra base hit in 44 plate appearances. It's far from doom and gloom for Murphy however. At just 25 years old, he's got plenty of promise still tied to him. He's a years removed from slashing .277/.327/.406 in 67 games with the Yankees. He's not a huge power threat, but his .734 OPS in 2015 shows he capable of being much more than a guaranteed out in a big league lineup. Expecting him to be back up with the Twins in 2016, and when given some consistent run, produce, seems like a pretty solid bet. What's hard to suggest however, is asking the Twins to go into the 2017 slate in the same fashion they entered this year. It's probably fair to call Murphy a relative question mark next season regardless of how the year plays out. That would mean Minnesota would likely be carrying John Ryan as their starter, with top catching prospect Stuart Turner in a backup role. As of right now, neither Turner nor Mitch Garver (the Twins second best catching prospect) have played above Double-A. Both have flashed offensively at points, but leave plenty to be desired. Turner is MLB ready defensively, but the Twins probably aren't in position for another Drew Butera at this point. That turns our focus to free agency, and begs us to wonder what may be a realistic solution. It probably stings a little, but a former Twins prospect could be in the cards. Enter Wilson Ramos. Currently playing for $5.35 million with the Nationals, Ramos is set to his the market. He could be brought back to Washington, but if the Twins have an opportunity to give him a look, it's hard to argue against that they should. Ramos will be 29 years old in August. He's caught just shy of 500 games throughout his seven year major league career to date, and he's had durability issues having played over 100 games just twice in his career. The expectation would be that Ramos would be looking for his payday, but if Minnesota can nab him on a two-year deal and slightly overpay, it's an avenue I'd consider. With 27 games under his belt in 2016, Ramos owns a .350/.387/.540 slash line for the Nationals. He's clubbed four homers, and has 11 total extra base hits in 100 at bats. His 1.1 fWAR puts him on pace to set a career high easily (currently 2.6 fWAR in 2011), and it would push him into the upper tier among catchers in the big leagues. I'd absolutely be weary of signing another long term deal for a guy behind the plate if I'm the Twins. Suzuki had plenty of warning signs that Twins management ignored when giving him his extension. Ramos is far from without his own issues, but if you can get him on a deal that makes sense, it's hardly unfair to expect him to allow John Ryan Murphy to blossom on his own time, while giving Turner or Garver a bit more proving time down on the farm. Looking back at how the Twins have rounded out 25 man rosters, they haven't had an ideal catching option since they lost their superstar to a brain injury, and before that, when Ramos himself was the answer. I'd wager it's far from unfair to suggest he may be that ideal option once again. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Platoon, good insight as always. I definitely agree that Molitor's mismanagement has been let of the issue. I'm more than ok canning him now, but also don't see it changing the tide of the season. If doing so fixes the issues that lie in not playing youth, then I'd go ahead with that decision tomorrow.
  3. With the Twins having 33 games under their belt, the club has won just eight contests. They've been swept in a series seven times thus far, and the reality of the situation has gone from dire to laughable. While I don't contend that either Paul Molitor or Terry Ryan are the best for the organization going forward, a change there doesn't handle the immediate issues. So, how do you fix the Twins?In an attempt to salvage what can be salvaged of the 2016 season, and put a best foot forward for 2017, here's the strategy I'm going with sooner rather than later. Move 1: Demote Eddie Rosario I've been telling you this would happen since way back in February. My comments on Eddie Rosario have generally been met with the question of why I "dislike him." That really couldn't be further from the truth. Rosario was my "Danny Santana" pick in 2015. He was the early call up who was going to force his way into the lineup and stick. It happened, but what also became apparent was that it wasn't sustainable. Some have tried to categorize Rosario as a "bad-ball hitter" but really, he isn't that. He's swung and missed over 19% of the time in 2016, and has chased pitches outside of the zone a staggering 40.6% of the time. His 67.7% contact rate is in line with a guy who hits a lot of balls out of the park. but that's not Rosario's game either. He saw an inflated OPS a season ago due to his MLB leading 15 triples, and that shouldn't have been expected to be repeated. Now, compounding the problem, Rosario has posted a negative defensive runs saved metric and isn't operating as an asset in the outfield. He's a guy who has long been talked about being bored on the farm. That may be fair, but his head isn't on straight, and he isn't above having to work at being good at this game. He needs to go down and rework his approach, while also figuring out who he wants to be between his ears. Move 2: Start Oswaldo Arcia, then trade him Fresh off of his 25th birthday, Oswaldo Arcia is still a part of the crop of youth the Twins employ. Despite being yanked around the last few seasons, and in part because of his lack of production, he's stuck with the Twins due to being out of options. Now drawing more regular starts due to Eddie Rosario's struggles, Arcia should be finding himself in the lineup every day. Arcia is always going to struggle against lefties, and his OPS in 2016 is nearly 70 points higher off of righties with all of his four homers coming against those pitchers. He can hit for power though, and despite facing shifts quite often at the plate, he's a capable power bat for a good club. He's just two seasons removed from being worth nearly 1.0 fWAR and remaining under team control until 2020 works to his value as well. You probably aren't going to get a huge return for him, but opening up some room for Move 3 to happen makes sense. Move 3: Promote Byron Buxton and Max Kepler It wasn't expected that Bryon Buxton would struggle so mightily to start off 2016, and it wasn't hoped that Max Kepler would be called up to be so poorly mismanaged by Paul Molitor. That said, both guys are beginning to force the Twins hand, and removing Rosario and Arcia from the picture could help to accommodate that. Over his last 12 games, Buxton is slashing .374/.423/.625. He's hitting for gap power, as well as putting the ball over the fence, and most importantly, his strikeout rate is reduced below 20%. Now finally getting consistent at bats (something Molitor stunted him of), Kepler is also heating up in Rochester slashing .324/.425/.529 across his last nine. Bring them up together, and make them your starting outfield along with Miguel Sano. In this scenario, both Buxton and Kepler are able to work towards being cornerstones of the future, while Sano is allowed to continue his transition. While much is made about Sano defensively, he's far from an issue when you look at the landscape of power bats playing right field (Jose Bautista, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz...all are negative defenders). Danny Santana then returns to his super utility role that he's best suited for, and you have the largest amount of talent on the field at one time. Note that this is ove three. I'd look to see what can be done about at least move one or two before going here. I think that both Buxton and Kepler stand to benefit from playing at Rochester at least until early June. Move 4: Trade Jorge Polanco This move has been complicated in how Paul Molitor has used Polanco since Eduardo Escobar has landed on the disabled list. Polanco has long been one of the guys the Twins have promoted, gone unused, and then has been sent back down. He'll now be out of options in 2017 because of it, and the big league club has very little idea what he can do at the highest level. Polanco has not played shortstop at all, at any level, in 2016. He's probably not capable of playing the role at the big league level due to his tendency for errors. That being said, the Twins have a second basemen in Brian Dozier (and no I'm not worried about his slow start). If you aren't going to see what Polanco has while the already struggling Escobar is hurt, then there's no place for him on the Twins roster. It's pretty widely regarded that Polanco's bat is big league ready. His glove may not be, but playing at second should help to alleviate some of those concerns. I'd be shopping Polanco immediately and if a team would rather give you a decent haul for Brian Dozier, then sure go ahead and pursue that route. If both Polanco and Dozier are in the organization to begin 2017 however, the Twins may have fumbled an opportunity. Move 5: Promote J.T. Chargois and Alex Meyer This offseason, I was completely behind the idea of Terry Ryan standing somewhat pat on his pen. Sure, they weren't good a year ago, but it's also one of the organizations areas of strength. Fernando Abad looked like a shrewd signing from the get go, and has been absolutely that. Glen Perkins put the Twins in a bind, but they weren't going to be in the market for a closer. What has compounded the problem is the lack of follow through on what appeared to be the plan. Coming into the year, and now 26 years old, the Twins still seem lost as to what Alex Meyer is. He was worked as a starter in Rochester and dominated. Then he was promoted, went unused, was thrown into a start, imploded, and was demoted. Rather than seeing some time in relief, where he appears destined to succeed, the Twins continue to jerk their return for Denard Span around. He should be up in the big league pen generating strikeouts at a 10+ K/9 pace and hoping the command issues stay as they were to start in Rochester (see nonexistent). Along with Meyer, flame-throwing reliever J.T. Chargois could be up helping the Twins. He was dominant to start 2016 with Chattanooga, and appeared to have earned the call. His 10.8 K/9 and 1.54 ERA as the Double-A closer were more than respectable. When healthy, Chargois has been nearly as good as they come in the Twins system. Instead, he was handed a ticket to Triple-A Rochester. For a floundering team and struggling bullpen, the Twins saw fit to add guys like Pat Dean and Brandon Kintzler to the fold, despite having no real long term viability with the club. At the end of the day, this club is playing horrible baseball right now. Unlike the Atlanta Braves who are actually bad, the Twins are a average to good collection of players, all playing well below their capabilities (save Joe, Byung Ho, and one or two others). With the season where it is now, you don't throw in the towel, but if you aren't positioning for 2017 and working in some of the ones above, you're doing it wrong. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz Click here to view the article
  4. In an attempt to salvage what can be salvaged of the 2016 season, and put a best foot forward for 2017, here's the strategy I'm going with sooner rather than later. Move 1: Demote Eddie Rosario I've been telling you this would happen since way back in February. My comments on Eddie Rosario have generally been met with the question of why I "dislike him." That really couldn't be further from the truth. Rosario was my "Danny Santana" pick in 2015. He was the early call up who was going to force his way into the lineup and stick. It happened, but what also became apparent was that it wasn't sustainable. Some have tried to categorize Rosario as a "bad-ball hitter" but really, he isn't that. He's swung and missed over 19% of the time in 2016, and has chased pitches outside of the zone a staggering 40.6% of the time. His 67.7% contact rate is in line with a guy who hits a lot of balls out of the park. but that's not Rosario's game either. He saw an inflated OPS a season ago due to his MLB leading 15 triples, and that shouldn't have been expected to be repeated. Now, compounding the problem, Rosario has posted a negative defensive runs saved metric and isn't operating as an asset in the outfield. He's a guy who has long been talked about being bored on the farm. That may be fair, but his head isn't on straight, and he isn't above having to work at being good at this game. He needs to go down and rework his approach, while also figuring out who he wants to be between his ears. Move 2: Start Oswaldo Arcia, then trade him Fresh off of his 25th birthday, Oswaldo Arcia is still a part of the crop of youth the Twins employ. Despite being yanked around the last few seasons, and in part because of his lack of production, he's stuck with the Twins due to being out of options. Now drawing more regular starts due to Eddie Rosario's struggles, Arcia should be finding himself in the lineup every day. Arcia is always going to struggle against lefties, and his OPS in 2016 is nearly 70 points higher off of righties with all of his four homers coming against those pitchers. He can hit for power though, and despite facing shifts quite often at the plate, he's a capable power bat for a good club. He's just two seasons removed from being worth nearly 1.0 fWAR and remaining under team control until 2020 works to his value as well. You probably aren't going to get a huge return for him, but opening up some room for Move 3 to happen makes sense. Move 3: Promote Byron Buxton and Max Kepler It wasn't expected that Bryon Buxton would struggle so mightily to start off 2016, and it wasn't hoped that Max Kepler would be called up to be so poorly mismanaged by Paul Molitor. That said, both guys are beginning to force the Twins hand, and removing Rosario and Arcia from the picture could help to accommodate that. Over his last 12 games, Buxton is slashing .374/.423/.625. He's hitting for gap power, as well as putting the ball over the fence, and most importantly, his strikeout rate is reduced below 20%. Now finally getting consistent at bats (something Molitor stunted him of), Kepler is also heating up in Rochester slashing .324/.425/.529 across his last nine. Bring them up together, and make them your starting outfield along with Miguel Sano. In this scenario, both Buxton and Kepler are able to work towards being cornerstones of the future, while Sano is allowed to continue his transition. While much is made about Sano defensively, he's far from an issue when you look at the landscape of power bats playing right field (Jose Bautista, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz...all are negative defenders). Danny Santana then returns to his super utility role that he's best suited for, and you have the largest amount of talent on the field at one time. Note that this is ove three. I'd look to see what can be done about at least move one or two before going here. I think that both Buxton and Kepler stand to benefit from playing at Rochester at least until early June. Move 4: Trade Jorge Polanco This move has been complicated in how Paul Molitor has used Polanco since Eduardo Escobar has landed on the disabled list. Polanco has long been one of the guys the Twins have promoted, gone unused, and then has been sent back down. He'll now be out of options in 2017 because of it, and the big league club has very little idea what he can do at the highest level. Polanco has not played shortstop at all, at any level, in 2016. He's probably not capable of playing the role at the big league level due to his tendency for errors. That being said, the Twins have a second basemen in Brian Dozier (and no I'm not worried about his slow start). If you aren't going to see what Polanco has while the already struggling Escobar is hurt, then there's no place for him on the Twins roster. It's pretty widely regarded that Polanco's bat is big league ready. His glove may not be, but playing at second should help to alleviate some of those concerns. I'd be shopping Polanco immediately and if a team would rather give you a decent haul for Brian Dozier, then sure go ahead and pursue that route. If both Polanco and Dozier are in the organization to begin 2017 however, the Twins may have fumbled an opportunity. Move 5: Promote J.T. Chargois and Alex Meyer This offseason, I was completely behind the idea of Terry Ryan standing somewhat pat on his pen. Sure, they weren't good a year ago, but it's also one of the organizations areas of strength. Fernando Abad looked like a shrewd signing from the get go, and has been absolutely that. Glen Perkins put the Twins in a bind, but they weren't going to be in the market for a closer. What has compounded the problem is the lack of follow through on what appeared to be the plan. Coming into the year, and now 26 years old, the Twins still seem lost as to what Alex Meyer is. He was worked as a starter in Rochester and dominated. Then he was promoted, went unused, was thrown into a start, imploded, and was demoted. Rather than seeing some time in relief, where he appears destined to succeed, the Twins continue to jerk their return for Denard Span around. He should be up in the big league pen generating strikeouts at a 10+ K/9 pace and hoping the command issues stay as they were to start in Rochester (see nonexistent). Along with Meyer, flame-throwing reliever J.T. Chargois could be up helping the Twins. He was dominant to start 2016 with Chattanooga, and appeared to have earned the call. His 10.8 K/9 and 1.54 ERA as the Double-A closer were more than respectable. When healthy, Chargois has been nearly as good as they come in the Twins system. Instead, he was handed a ticket to Triple-A Rochester. For a floundering team and struggling bullpen, the Twins saw fit to add guys like Pat Dean and Brandon Kintzler to the fold, despite having no real long term viability with the club. At the end of the day, this club is playing horrible baseball right now. Unlike the Atlanta Braves who are actually bad, the Twins are a average to good collection of players, all playing well below their capabilities (save Joe, Byung Ho, and one or two others). With the season where it is now, you don't throw in the towel, but if you aren't positioning for 2017 and working in some of the ones above, you're doing it wrong. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Thanks for the kind words Doc, and thanks for adding your two cents. Think you've got a lot of good points in there as well.
  6. Agree completely with your thoughts on Polanco and have said as much on Twitter. With EE being out, he should be starting at SS every game. I don't care that Nunez is hot, he's a nice bench bat but nothing more
  7. With the Twins having 33 games under their belt, the club has won just eight contests. They've been swept in a series seven times thus far, and the reality of the situation has gone from dire to laughable. While I don't contend that either Paul Molitor or Terry Ryan are the best for the organization going forward, a change there doesn't handle the issues at present. So, how do you fix the Twins? In an attempt to salvage the most out of the 2016 season, and put a best foot forward for 2017, here's the strategy I'm going with sooner rather than later. Move 1: Demote Eddie Rosario I've been telling you this would happen since way back in February. My comments on Eddie Rosario have generally been met with the question as to why I "dislike him." That really couldn't be further from the truth. Rosario was my "Danny Santana" pick in 2015. He was the early call up who was going to force his way into the lineup and stick. It happened, but what also became apparent was that it wasn't sustainable. Some have tried to categorize Rosario as a "bad ball hitter" but really, he isn't that. He's swung and missed over 19% of the time in 2016, and has chased pitches outside of the zone a staggering 40.6% of the time. His 67.7% contact rate is in line with a guy that hits a lot of balls out of the park. but that's not Rosario's game either. He saw an inflated OPS a season ago due to his MLB leading 15 triples, and that shouldn't have been expected to be repeated. Now also compounding problems is that Rosario has posted a negative Defensive Runs Saved metric and isn't operating as an asset in the outfield. He's a guy who has long been talked about being bored on the farm. That may be fair, but his head isn't on straight, and he isn't above having to work at being good at this game. He needs to go down and rework his approach, while also figuring out who he wants to be between his ears. Move 2: Start Oswaldo Arcia, then trade him Fresh off of his 25th birthday, Oswaldo Arcia is still a part of the crop of youth the Twins employ. Despite being yanked around the last few seasons, and in part because of his lack of production, he's stuck with the Twins due to being out of options. Now drawing more regular starts due to Eddie Rosario's struggles, Arcia should be finding himself in the lineup every day. Arcia is always going to struggle versus lefties, and his OPS in 2016 is nearly 70 points higher off of righties with all of his four homers coming against those pitchers. He can hit for power though, and despite facing shifts quite often at the plate, he's a capable power bat for a good club. He's just two seasons removed from being worth nearly 1.0 fWAR and remaining under team control until 2020 works to his value as well. You probably aren't going to get a huge return for him, but opening up some room for Move 3 to happen makes sense. Move 3: Promote Byron Buxton and Max Kepler It wasn't expected that Bryon Buxton would struggle so mightily to start off 2016, and it wasn't hoped that Max Kepler would be called up to be to poorly mismanaged by Paul Molitor. That said, both guys are beginning to force the Twins hand, and removing Rosario and Arcia from the picture could help to accommodate that. Over his last 12 games, Buxton is slashing .374/.423/.625. He's hitting for gap power, as well as putting the ball over the fence, and most importantly, his strikeout rates are reduced below 20%. Now finally getting consistent at bats (something Molitor stunted him of), Kepler is also heating up in Rochester slashing .324/.425/.529 across his last nine. Bring them up together, and make them your starting outfield along with Miguel Sano. In this scenario, both Buxton and Kepler are able to work towards being cornerstones of the future, while Sano is allowed to continue his transition. While much is made about Sano defensively, he's far from an issue when you look at the landscape of power bats playing right field (Jose Bautista, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz...all are negative defenders). Danny Santana then returns to his super utility role that he's best suited for, and you have the largest amount of talent on the field at one time. Note that this is move three. I'd look to see what can be done about at least move one or two before going here. I think that both Buxton and Kepler stand to benefit from playing at Rochester at least until early June. Move 4: Trade Jorge Polanco This move has been complicated in how Paul Molitor has used Polanco since Eduardo Escobar has landed on the disabled list. Polanco has long been one of the guys the Twins have promoted, gone unused, and then has been sent back down. He'll now be out of options in 2017 because of it, and the big league club has very little idea what he can do at the highest level. Polanco has not played shortstop at all, at any level, in 2016. He's probably not capable of playing the role at the big league level due to his tendency for errors. That being said, the Twins have a second basemen in Brian Dozier (and no I'm not worried about his slow start). If you aren't going to see what Polanco has while the already struggling Escobar is hurt, then there's no place for him on the Twins roster. It's pretty widely regarded that Polanco's bat is big league ready. His glove may not be, but playing at second should help to alleviate some of those concerns. I'd be shopping Polanco immediately and if a team would rather give you a decent haul for Brian Dozier, then sure go ahead and pursue that route. If both Polanco and Dozier are in the organization to begin 2017 however, the Twins may have fumbled an opportunity. Move 5: Promote J.T. Chargois and Alex Meyer This offseason, I was completely behind the idea of Terry Ryan standing somewhat pat on his pen. Sure, they weren't good a year ago, but it's also one of the organizations areas of strength. Fernando Abad looked like shrewd signing from the get go, and has been absolutely that. Glen Perkins put the Twins in a bind, but they weren't going to be in the market for a closer. What has compounded problems is the lack of follow through on what appeared to be the plan. Coming into the year, and now 26 years old, the Twins still seem lost as to what Alex Meyer is. He was worked as a starter in Rochester and dominated. Then he was promoted, went unused, was thrown into a start, imploded, and was demoted. Rather than seeing some time in relief, where he appears destined to succeed, the Twins continue to jerk their return for Denard Span around. He should be up in the big league pen generating strikeouts at a 10+ K/9 pace and hoping the command issues stay as they were to start in Rochester (see nonexistent). Along with Meyer, flame throwing reliever J.T. Chargois could be up helping the Twins. He was dominant to start 2016 with Chattanooga, and appeared to have earned the call. His 10.8 K/9 and 1.54 ERA as the Double-A closer were more than respectable. When healthy, Chargois has been nearly as good as they come in the Twins system. Instead, he was handed a ticket to Triple-A Rochester. For a floundering team and struggling bullpen, the Twins saw fit to add guys like Pat Dean and Brandon Kintzler to the fold, despite having no real long term viability with the club. At the end of the day, this club is playing horrible baseball right now. Unlike the Atlanta Braves who are actually bad, the Twins are a average to good collection of players, all playing well below their capabilities (spare Joe, Byung Ho, and one or two others). With the season where it is now, you don't throw in the towel, but if you aren't positioning for 2017 and working in some of the ones above, you're doing it wrong. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. And essentially, you've explained how FA contracts work. You're paying for past performance and banking on it continuing at least for a period of time. Contract aside though, it's just baffling how the Twins spent on him, and then decided they were done.
  9. As the Twins continue their 2016 tailspin, things have gotten to ridiculous measures. Not only are the Twins now officially the worst team in baseball thanks to their 8-25 record, but they don't appear to have any immediate fixes. While the club as as a whole has struggled, one of the lone bright spots has been Minnesota staple Joe Mauer. Considering he's often the unfair punchline, it's worth considering that it's the Minnesota native the Twins might have failed most. Whether you follow local blogger Aaron Gleeman on Twitter or not, there's no such thing as a peruse through his mentions without seeing distaste for Mauer. Whether it be because he doesn't hit enough home runs, isn't loud enough, or frankly isn't Bryce Harper, the casual Twins fan likes to use him as a punching bag for everything wrong with the organization. It's become nearly impossible to escape the silly thought that signing Mauer to an 8 year, $184 million contract was a bad decision, but the reality says that may have been the only positive one the Twins have made of late. Following an MVP season, and then another in which he was in consideration, the Twins gave the hometown hero the lucrative deal. Not only did it make sense from the marketing standpoint, but Mauer was easily among the best catcher's to ever play the game. He was a surefire Hall of Famer, he was one of the best hitters ever at any position, and he stood for everything the Twins wanted to tie themselves to. Then it happened. A concussion and subsequent injuries sapped Mauer's career arc from becoming what it was destined to be. He sat out much of 2011, and despite going on to be an All Star again in 2013 and 2013, he became a shell of the player he once was. No longer a catcher full time, Mauer had to reinvent himself. He was never the home run hitter the Metrodome made him out to be in 2009, but he had to completely change his approach as a whole. What once was such a certainty became anything but. That brings us to where we are today. Whether it be the further distance from the brain trauma he suffered, or the successful experiment with sunglasses, Mauer is back to being one of the most productive hitters in the big leagues. He's dictated counts, he's worked the zone, and his .424 on base percentage leads the league (and has also FINALLY gotten the Twins to use him as their leadoff man). Maker's approach at the plate in 2016 has been nothing short of a revelation. His 37% hard hit rate is the best he's seen since 2013, and ranks in the top echelon of his numbers of the entirety of his career. On the season, he's swung and missed just 3.5% of the time, which ranks second all time among his career numbers. He's near 90% contact rate is truly remarkable, and he's chasing pitches out of the zone just 18.5% of the time (the best we've seen from him since 2008). If you've watched the Twins at all in 2016, you know that Mauer has been nothing short of great, that's really not the point here. Instead, the issue is that the Twins did what they should have done in locking Mauer up with a mega deal, but then decided to say they were done. Baseball is not a sport where one guy gets the job done. Mike Trout is arguably the best player on the planet, and his Angels team is a joke. Over the course of his 13 year career with Minnesota, Mauer has been to the playoffs just three times, and not since 2010. He's been paired with internal stars such as Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau, but outside help has been next to nonexistent. Looking back through the help that Minnesota's front office has paired their superstar with, the lone bright spot is probably in the form of a 39 year old Jim Thome. Brought in for the 2010 season, Thome was worth 3.0 fWAR and clubbed 25 homers for the Twins that year. Despite finishing first in the AL Central and winning 90 games, that team's rotation consisted of Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker. Sure, they all won double digit games, but the average ERA was 4.36. For a playoff run, that's hardly going to get it done. Considering the course of the relationship between the Twins and Joe Mauer, the highlight for the two was in signing that 8 year mega-deal. It was the right move at the time, and even with the injuries having changed Mauer's career course, has far from hampered the club going forward. Where the Twins let not only themselves, but Joe as well down, was in believing that was enough. Minnesota's management decided that Mauer alone could return a championship to Minneapolis, and in failing to get him help in any significant amount throughout his career, Mauer has been failed most. As the Twins slog through the 2016 slate and hope that 2017 is a corner turner back to relevancy, it will be Joe who goes about his business and sits idly by again. Top prospects will be promoted and expected to contribute. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios are this club's future; they should be expected to be. What shouldn't be expected is the Twins going out and making the smart investment on a top tier free agent or two to pair with their internal talent and elevate them to new heights. We've never seen it before, why start now. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. It's refreshing to come here and read this. In other venues, the feelings are met with anger and distaste. I guess I don't subscribe to accepting mediocrity?
  11. With a very much needed, but not incredibly well deserved off day, the Minnesota Twins are guaranteed not to sink further into the loss column today. Fresh off another series loss, this one ending with a 16-4 drubbing by the Houston Astros, things have completely fallen apart for Paul Molitor's squad. The problem isn't what's on his roster though, but rather what has taken place since Opening Day. Coming into the season, the Minnesota Twins had heightened expectations after an out-of-nowhere season a year ago. Peaking ahead of schedule, Molitor took the club to the brink in his first year as manager. Just narrowly missing the playoffs, many tabbed this club as poised for more. Deficiencies were present in the bullpen a season ago, and defense was something that could also be looked upon. Despite no clear ace in the starting rotation, pitching was expected to be a relative strength with young arms on the way. Terry Ryan and the Twins did what they thought best positioned them, without blocking too many internal options, over the offseason. Fernando Abad was a key offseason non-roster guy, and results aside (as great as he's been) it's was a move likely to work. Minnesota believed he was tipping his pitches, and just a year removed from getting everyone out, that seemed like a relative easy fix. Buying Ho Park was brought in to bolster the offense. Sure, he sent Miguel Sano to right field, but there's no denying the Twins run support has been for the better for it. In summary, the roster construction of this team coming into the 2016 season was hardly problematic. That leads us to where we find ourselves now. Local writer, Brandon Warne noted on Twitter that he'd be penning a piece in defense of the Twins roster shortly. Where that veers from the issue is that the roster in and of itself is not actually all that problematic. The results have been nowhere near where this club should be (8-20 is horrible), however, it's been the in season adjustments that have highlighted a much larger issue. There's been an incredibly inept usage of the organizational pieces by both Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan. Promotions and demotions have been head scratching to say the least, and in game usage has questioned Molitor's savvy as a manager in general. Our latest example for the Twins compounding on their own mistakes came in that drubbing to the Astros. Following a start in which the deck was nearly stacked against him, Alex Meyer was sent back to Triple-A, rather than the Twins bullpen, in favor of J.R. Graham. Graham was promoted having totaled an ERA north of 10.00 on the farm this season. Then, instead of being just a hidden body in the bullpen, he was used in the first game he was with the team. Of course, the Astros teed off on him, and the Twins wind up looking even sillier for it. As we've now played over a month of the season, Molitor and Ryan have given us plenty of laughable instances to point at. The leash Eddie Rosario has been given is crazy, David Murphy was awarded a 40 man spot despite his intentions to avoid the dumpster fire through retiring. Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler have both been promoted and gone unused, and Molitor continues to be stoic throughout the whole process. With how things have been handled to this point, it appears the Twins fundamental problem is that both Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor have absolutely zero clue. They have no clue what the identity of this team is, and that's a problem. You can only keep saying that such a small portion of the season has been played for so long. Right now, the Twins have virtually no chance of making the playoffs, yet every roster move is a knee jerk reaction that appears to be made thinking it's the final key to picking up that pivotal win. There's no sense packing it in, but there's a right and wrong way to handle a losing season in big league baseball. For the Twins, making sure they understand what they have in their youth, and unlocking them as contributors for the season that lies ahead, is absolutely important. That doesn't appear to be the plan, process or goal however, and that underlines the much larger issue that this organization is facing. How to change the tide is something that's much more of an uphill battle, but nothing Molitor or Ryan have displayed in 2016 suggest they appear capable of being a part of the solution. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  12. You bring up a good point. Almost solely, Doug Mientkiewicz is the only name I heard consistently credited with success.
  13. The Twins are operating as if the one quick move they make will be the key that unlocks the needed win or two for the playoffs. That should have been the strategy last year (namely with Berrios). Right now, they're an 8-19 team chasing their tail and hurting their future contributors in the process.
  14. Following his first and only start in a Major League Baseball uniform, the Twins couldn't even wait through the night to option prospect Alex Meyer back to Triple-A Rochester. Getting a chance with Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson on the shelf, the Twins had deemed they had seen enough after just 2.2 innings pitched from Meyer. Really though, it seems there's a much large issue at play here. This morning on Twitter I was thinking back to the guys I can remember the Twins using in an extremely poor fashion. The list is probably longer than I was able to recall, but here's what I came up with: 2015 Michael Tonkin 2015 Kennys Vargas 2016 Max Kepler 2016 Jorge Polanco 2016 Alex Meyer Plan for these guys has been horrible #MNTwins The reality of the situation is that every single one of the names mentioned has been done a disservice by either Paul Molitor, Terry Ryan, or a collection of the two. I touched on odd roster moves when writing up Ryan a while back, but I think it's probably fair to look a little deeper. I won't spend much time on Tonkin or Vargas as I've talked about the poor usage they had to endure previously. Tonkin was jerked back and forth between the big leagues and Triple-A in 2015. Despite being a good piece for Minnesota this season, it's something they should have previously been aware of. You can read that piece here. Vargas is a guy that's never been someone I have regarded as in the higher level of prospects. It was nice that he made a showing at the 2014 Future's Game, but that may go down to be the highlight of his career. Regardless of my feelings that he may be a bench bat, Minnesota sent him packing at such a poor time, and it's essentially ruined him. Read more of my thoughts on that here. That brings us to the guys that Ryan and Molitor have hurt this season. The list starts with Max Kepler. He was up with the Twins for roughly 20 games in 2016 to start the year, and in that time, drew just two starts. Kepler was employed almost solely as a defensive replacement, and was given just 14 plate appearances. For a guy that's regarded pretty highly across MLB in the prospect realm, his development was being stunted, while his ability at the highest level was not at all being understood. Kepler could have been drawing regular, rotating starts among the Twins outfield. A guy that can play all three positions, he should have been in the lineup at least two times per week. Instead, he was sent back to Triple-A after having been able to show nothing. He's now hitting below the Mendoza Line at Rochester, and is trying to get things going after having the first bit of his season be rendered completely useless. Of the group, Polanco has probably been the least damaged, despite being a victim previously. He has been called up and sent back now by the Twins twice in 2016. The latest time, April 26, saw him get a single at bat (on April 29) before being sent back to Triple-A. Minnesota has promoted Polanco multiple times over the past three seasons, and yet he's been given a whopping 29 at bats. He's going to be out of options at the end of 2016, and despite being touted to have a big league ready bat, Minnesota really hasn't allowed him an opportunity to showcase it. I've contended for quite some time that Polanco's greatest asset to the Twins is in his trade value. He can't play short or third efficiently enough, and Minnesota has Brian Dozier at second for the immediate future. The way in which Polanco has been showcased isn't going to drive up his trade value, and it's becoming closer to the time that the Twins lose him for next to nothing. Now for the most recent example, and maybe the most frustrating one, Alex Meyer. Meyer was acquired for Denard Span from the Washington Nationals prior to the 2013 season. Now 26 years old, Meyer has both started and relieved in the Twins system. Having been a part of the organization for multiple years, it's somewhat sad the club hasn't decided on which is the best route for him to succeed. In being called up to the big leagues this time, Meyer was given a deck stacked against him, and then was immediately jettisoned to the farm in favor of a reliever with an ERA north of 10.00. Here's the timeline the Twins gave Meyer in 2016: Alex Meyer timeline: Apr 20- Recent AAA start Apr 25- Promoted to MLB Apr 29- Relief app May 3- MLB start May 3- Option to AAA#MNTwins Instead of scrapping the starting idea, and allowing him to see if he can stick in the pen for a team that's 8-19, Minnesota abandoned him altogether. Meyer goes back to Rochester where he'll likely start. Sure, he probably gets another crack at the big league level in 2016 in some fashion, but he's 26 and the organization still has no idea what the future holds for him. At some point, the Twins need to understand that if you're going to build from within, you're going to be employing youth. With youth comes inexperience, and therefore you'll have some bumps in the road to work through. For a team that's 8-19, there's little reason to keep acting like you need the quick fix that is going to get you to the playoffs, it's not happening. Looking to the future, this organization still has plenty of pieces to build a contended from within, and remain that way for a while. What I'm not sure they have is the right people at the top (Ryan and Molitor) to get them to that point. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  15. Agreed, seeing him work with this group, I would have went with Doug if they were going to stay internal.
  16. Today, my plan was to write about Eddie Rosario and why it's incredibly odd how the Twins continue to use him. I decided to scrap that piece as thinking about Paul Molitor ended up tying in with it anyways. The Twins manager had one of the best seasons in recent memory a year ago, but since, things have gone horribly wrong. I'm not necessarily sure Molitor is completely to blame, but he's definitely part of the problem. Looking back to Rosario, Molitor's lineup construction has continued to be questionable at best. In the latest display of this, the Twins skipper started Rosario over Oswaldo Arcia in a game against right-handed pitching Collin McHugh of the Astros. On the season, Rosario is the lone Twins regular with an average below the Mendoza Line. Against righties, he's hitting a disgusting .182/.194/.348. Arcia, who has dominated righties over his career, is hitting .234/.296/.426 on the season (not great, but significantly better than Rosario). Having started out the season getting next to no playing time, Arcia has forced the Twins hand with his solid play at the plate. It seems however, that the club remains enamored with the idea of what Rosario was a season ago, and they'll do everything in their power to get him in the lineup over the Venezuelan slugger. It's not just in his outfield that Molitor seems somewhat confused however. The use of the 25 man roster has been concerning at best. While it's Terry Ryan in part that gives him the players, it's solely on Molitor's shoulder to get guys into the action. Max Kepler was with the Twins for right around 20 games to start the season, and was given a whopping 14 plate appearances and an inexcusable two starts. Alex Meyer was utilized in a similar fashion. Being called up initially for the bullpen, he was utilized once in a relief role and made just one start after sitting on the bench for a handful of games. Molito's odd roster usage isn't something tied to just 2016. I questioned how the club utilized Michael Tonkin and Kennys Vargas a season ago. Jorge Polanco has been jerked around this year, and I'm guessing there will be a few more instances down the line. With a roster that is going to employ a certain level of youth, Molitor seems somewhat unsure of how to effectively utilize the players at his disposal. Then there's the questionable situations that have presented themselves for the Twins. Whether it be late game substitutions, or pinch hit opportunities, sometimes it appears Molitor attempts to do too much while doing nothing at all. In 2015, players like Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano were routinely pinch run for late in games for an assumed speed upgrade. Whether Eduardo Nunez represents a significant advantage or not is to be debated, but losing a bat like that should it come around again in the order is a situation that has far too often reared its head. Bunting has also become something Molitor has been in favor of in odd situations, or less than ideal batters (ahem Arcia), despite a team that has shown no advanced ability to get it down. The in game adjustments have added up to be a collective grouping of head scratching moves almost more often than not. At the end of the day, I'm not sure I'm yet advocating for the Twins to look elsewhere. I loved the Molitor hire, and think he has a great baseball mind. That being said, nothing this season has given me any sort of belief that he's the guy that can take Minnesota to the next level, and back to playoff relevancy. There's little to no reason to believe the Twins would ever make a coaching move mid-season, especially with an organizational guy. That said, the situation playing out as it has, could end up stalling any sort of turnaround even further. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  17. What's problematic is that the numbers say what you're suggesting isn't happening. He's pulling the ball LESS than in previous seasons. He's going up the middle more, and is seeing less of the balls he puts in play fall.
  18. After the first month or so of the 2016 Major League Baseball season, one of the most disappointing Minnesota Twins has been starting second basemen Brian Dozier. He was a 2014 Home Run Derby participant, and was a 2015 All Star. In both seasons, he faded heavily down the stretch. In 2016 however, it's been out of the gate that Dozier has failed to get it going. Through the Twins first 26 games, Dozier owns just a .204/.287/.350 slash line. Of his 21 hits, nine have been for extra bases, but his 116 plate appearances have been far more unproductive than not. For a guy that's batting second in a struggling lineup, it's fair to have some concerns in relation to Dozier's current production level. In looking at things on a more granular level however, the numbers seemingly suggest a turnaround should probably be coming for the Twins second basemen. As things stand currently, Dozier has actually improved upon quite a few of his 2015 numbers. His walk rate is at 9.5%, up nearly a percent over what it was a year ago (but still a far cry from the impressive 12.6% in 2014 that lead to a .345 OBP). He's striking out less, just 17.2% of the time in comparison to 21.0% a season ago. There's also the reality that he's hitting the ball square, posting the highest (29.8%) "hard" hit rate of his career. So, what gives? Right now, Dozier is falling into some less than lucky situations, and he's not doing himself an incredible amount of justice either. His batting average on balls in play sits at .225, down nearly 40 points from a season ago, and easily the worst mark of his big league career. He's also generating line drives just 19.8% of the time, a new career low, but not far off from his norms. The highest change however has been in that he's launched fly balls nearly 50% (see 49.4%) of the time. When Dozier is hitting homers, that's not a terrible problem, but his 7.5% HR/FB ratio is nearly half or what it was a season ago. It's long been noted that Dozier's power comes from him virtually selling out to yank the ball to left field. In doing so, he's generated harder contact and more home runs, but has left himself susceptible to covering the outside portion of the plate. In 2016, he seemingly has toned down his pull tendencies at least somewhat. He's still hitting half of his batted balls to left, but his 34.5% of balls put in play to the center of the field is the highest number since 2013. While his opposite field percentage remains consistent with where it has been, the power has noticeably been sapped. Looking at plate discipline, there's really little to be concerned about as well. Dozier is swinging at the lowest amount of pitches outside of the strike zone as he ever has in his career (23.9%) and he's making contact 81.2% of the time (which is higher than 2015, and just off of his 82.9% career average). When taking a hack, Dozier has also whiffed only 7.5% of the time, nearly 2% below the output he produced a season ago. What the substantive numbers tell us, is that the slash line Dozier is currently experiencing may be somewhat smoke and mirrors. There's absolutely no doubt that he needs to put a higher portion of batted balls on a line. Popping out isn't ever going to be an effective strategy, and when the ball isn't leaving the yard, the problem becomes even greater. Considering his approach though, the weather probably effects him more than others. At Target Field or elsewhere, balls that may leave the yard simply don't in the cold early months. In 86 career games in April, Dozier owns a .216/.308/.370 slash line. That rises to .243/.299/.425 in May, and .255/.348/.451 in June. He's not a .300 hitter, and .204 is not at all far from his career .238 average. You can probably make the case that the Twins would be best served in moved Dozier down in the lineup. In an ideal world, I'd probably agree. Considering he'd be replaced with the likes of Eduardo Escobar, Eddie Rosario, or Eduardo Nunez however, I think I'll pass. If you're not going to lead off Joe Mauer, then the Twins hitting Dozier one or two is a strategy that they'll just have to let him struggle through. The calming part of it all though is that we're probably making more out of a slow first month than we really should be. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  19. Welcome to May, the second month of the Major League Baseball season. The Minnesota Twins have started out in just about the least desirable way possible, but there's been a few bright spots. Joe Mauer has looked other-worldly at the plate, and the youth has begun to rise. An exciting development however has been the emergence of for Korean Baseball Organization superstar Byung Ho Park. The Twins won the rights to sign the Nexen star, and inked the 29 year-old rookie to a four-year, $12 million deal this offseason. Slated to be the club's every day designated hitter, the narrative was that his power would absolutely play. Having hit over 100 homers the past two seasons in Korea, Minnesota was hoping for even a fraction of that production at Target Field. It was fair to expect a learning curve of some sort for the newest Twins hitter. Jung Ho Kang had paved the way, and laid out an acclimation plan for his fellow countryman through his success with the Pirates a season ago. Park though, has made the transition look even smoother. Through his first six games with the Twins, Park put up a paltry .143/.250/.286 slash line while striking out 12 times and registering just two walks. Then, things clicked. From April 14 on (a period of 15 games), Park has slashed .294/.351/.706 for Minnesota. He's launched five homers, driving in 10 runs, and owning a 12/5 K/BB ratio. Batting in the five hole behind Miguel Sano for the bulk of that time, he's become a threat in the heart of Paul Molitor's order. What's maybe even more impressive, is how well he is adjusting to the speed of the big league game. Despite facing faster pitcher, and more adept throwers, Park has absolutely obliterated baseballs. When making contact, he has made "hard" contact 42.9% of the time. When he is hitting fly balls, 28.6% of them have left the yard. Despite a lower contact rate (69%), he's becoming more patient in his approach, chasing pitches just 26.5% of the time. Of course, Park is known for the longball. What maybe wasn't expected, is that the #ParkBang has been so incredibly impressive thus far in his career for the Twins. Having now recorded six homers, Park has hit just one that didn't travel over 400 feet (a 390ft opposite field bomb at Target Field), and his exit velocity has been equally impressive. Right now, Park is averaging 427.8 feet on his home runs, and they are leaving the bat at an average speed of 108.4 mph. It's pretty safe to assume that Park is going to make most of the projections look pretty silly. To date, he's been worth 0.7 fWAR, which puts him on pace for a 4.4 fWAR mark on the season. ZiPS tabbed him for a 2.0 fWAR with Steamer projections having him at 1.9 fWAR. Considering that he's been a defensive asset (2 DRS and 1.3 UZR), combined with his offensive prowess, he should only continue to improve upon his value. Terry Ryan and the Twins took a gamble on Park acclimating to the big leagues. It was considerable, but became pretty downsized when the Twins ended up only having to play the slugger an average of $3 million per year for his services. Right now, and really at the time as well, that contract is looking like highway robbery. As the season gets deeper into the heart of the summer, expecting Park to continue to be an integral part of the Twins is a very good bet. It's been a fun start thus far, but Park is only just beginning. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  20. Coming into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Twins roster was expected to be about youth and inexperience. Having welcomed Korean slugger Byung Ho Park into the fold, Minnesota then was expected to turn their attention to internal youth. With top prospects littering the ladnscape for quick call ups, it was the expected narrative to begin the year. Now through the first month of the season, Paul Molitor has utilized Taylor Rogers, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios, and will shortly call upon Alex Meyer. That leaves us at a point of wondering what else may be coming. Despite promoting many top prospects to the big league club, the Twins still have one of the best farm systems in the game. On the mound, Minnesota is working to turn a corner, but wondering who's next is where we are currently at. There's some fun relief options that should see their major league debuts in 2016. Players such as J.T. Chargois, Nick Burdi, and even Jake Reed could all be on the horizon for Minnesota. For the purposes of this dissection however, the focus will remain on starters, and two key individuals to be clear. First and foremost, Stephen Gonsalves has emerged as what should probably be considered the Twins next best starting pitcher prospect. He began the 2016 where he ended the 2015 season, with the Fort Myers Miracle. Somewhat similar to Jose Berrios before him, Gonsalves has made a habit of hoping levels due to strong performances mid season. After posting a 2.61 ERA and a 6.2 K/9 at High-A Fort Myers a season ago, his 2016 has started off even better. Through his first four starts, Gonsalves owns a 1.44 ERA and has struck out 8.6 per nine while issuing just 2.2 free passes per nine. He's already given up two home runs in just 25.0 IP (after giving up just 4 in 134.1 IP in 2015) but that's really his only blemish. Gonsalves is a 21 year old, and won't hit 22 until the middle of the summer. A 4th round pick out of high school in the 2013 draft, he's impressed at virtually every level he's appeared at. With the roster shuffle at the top, a promotion for Gonsalves should be right around the corner. I'd expect him to make the bulk of his starts this season at Double-A Chattanooga, and that could make him an option to reach the Twins in late 2017. He's probably not going to be a huge strikeout guy at the big league level, but he'll be serviceable at worst, and has the ability to get quality hitters out. His consistency has been a strength of his, and he's a very level headed athlete as well. Gonsalves is no doubt a name to keep an eye on, and a guy who should continue to shoot up prospect ranking boards. That brings us to number two, and a guy that I've had Jekyl and Hyde type feelings on, Kohl Stewart. Drafted 4th overall by the Twins in 2013, Stewart was expected to be a potential top of the rotation ace for the Twins. The development has taken longer than expected, but for a high school kid, it's not totally out of the ordinary. After a great professional debut season in 2013, Stewart took a step backwards at Cedar Rapids in 2014, and fell off mightily in 2015. He's a guy that had just begun focusing on baseball full time, and injuries to his arm were a part of his early time with the Twins. What he's done to start out 2016 however has to put him back on the map. Like Gonsalves, Stewart is starting this season at Fort Myers once again. He made 22 starts for the Miracle in 2015 with pretty mediocre results. This season however, he owns a 1.93 ERA across four starts while striking out 10.0 per nine and issuing just 2.3 free passes per nine. Across 23.1 innings pitched, it's hard to describe Stewart as anything but exceptional. A Texas native, Stewart continues to have some maturing to do. He's notably not the greatest guy to deal with, but I know that's something the Twins have worked with him on. As he continues to make strides on the mound, the attitude adjustments and maturity will likely follow in kind. I'm not sure that the Twins will move Stewart as aggressively as Gonsalves considering his struggles the past two seasons. He's also 21, but doesn't turn 22 until October. I want to see Stewart continue this performance for at least half of the year at Fort Myers, and if things go well, give him the promotion to Double-A Chattanooga. That would put Stewart on track to begin in Tennessee for 2017, and push for Triple-A Rochester. Despite falling off almost all top 100 prospect lists this season, Stewart could do wonders for his stock by putting together a 2016 like he has started out. Regaining the ace status, the Twins could be using him to bolster their rotation sometime in 2018. For Stewart, it's been a tough road thus far, but 2016 has been a very encouraging start. Minnesota has a handful of other guys that are interesting starting options down the road. 2015 1st round draft pick Tyler Jay is working as a starter for the first time in his career this season. Then there's players such as Felix Jorge and Randy Rosario. They would all seem to be a bit more along the lines of wishful thinking (at least as a starter Jay may be), but the club is far from depleted on the mound. As the Twins continue to turn over into a new era fueled by blossoming youth, they'll need to continue to rely on internally developed pitching prospects to help pave the way. Thankfully, the next two top tier options seem plenty poised to carry the torch. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. You lost me after wanting Chargois to come up and close. I think he can help this pen, but putting him immediately in that role I think might be a bit much.
  22. Here's the problem with that train of thought, and why I've arrived at the crossroads that I have. In thinking Ryan is what he is, and the team is what it is, and the building at the top comes from within, who advances the talent to be what they should be rather than what they are? What has Terry Ryan ever done to reinvent the wheel or instill the confidence that he has the chops to get you to the next step. It's notable that both the Astros and Cubs brought on new GMs at the beginning of their rebuild. Both are seeing the fruits of that labor.
  23. I'm bullish on Tonkin, but I'd be closer to DFA'ing him for the next arm than making him the closer. I'd love to see Burdi/Chargois up sooner rather than later, but they can't immediately take over the closer role. Jepsen is essentially a 7th inning guy. Working as Perkins' setup man was a fine gig, but Glen put the Twins in a bind and got them to this point.
  24. The Twins bullpen has been a problem area in the early going this season, and despite being left largely unaddressed this offseason, I expected the minor moves to make some difference. In short, some aspects have played out as expected. Fernando Abad has been about as good as I assumed, and Casey Fien has struggled along the lines I pictured. A guy I worried about though, was Kevin Jepsen, and that's been a bigger issue. Jepsen appeared a very large regression candidate coming into the 2016 season. After being acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, Jepsen posted a 1.61 ERA for the Twins along with a 2.56 FIP. His 8.0 K/9 was right near his career average, and his 2.3 BB/9 were the best result of his career. Having never seen significant time as a closer previously, he grabbed 10 saves for Minnesota as a replacement for the injured Glen Perkins. It all added up to a situation that just seemed too good to play out again. Now around 20 games into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the wheels have essentially fallen off for Jepsen. He owns a 4.15 ERA which probably doesn't highlight how poor he's been. His 7.3 K/9 is fine, but he's striking out just 17% of opposing hitters, the worst mark of his career. He's blown three saves, and has converted just two on the season. Now matter how you break it down, he's far from anything certain in a closer role. There's a couple of things Jepsen seems to be doing differently early on for the Twins. He's relied on his fastball nearly 75% of the time this season (nearly a 10% bump from 2015), and has all but abandoned his changeup (using it just 2.7% of the time). Combining the usage with the fact that his 94 mph velocity on his fastball is the lowest of his career, it's resulted in less than ideal output. On top of that, the effectiveness of Jepsen's pitches seems to have waned as well. In 2016, he's gotten batters to chase ptiches out of the zone just 24.1% of the time (lowest mark of his career) and well as generating swinging strikes just 8.7% of the time (lowest mark since 2013). When he throws a ball in the strike zone, opposing hitters are making contact a ridiculous 92.2% of the time (also the worst mark of his career). Right now, Jepsen's problems are a perfect storm. He's not executing his pitches, and when he is, they simply aren't very good. He's not fooling hitters, and he's generally dancing around trouble rather than attacking and avoiding it. The sum of all parts suggests the regression I expect to set in, but I really didn't see it coming this quickly. It's more than fair to attribute some of Jepsen's problems to the role he is being forced to play. Thanks to Glen Perkins binding the Twins with a week one DL stay, the former Rays reliever is pitching in a high leverage closer role he has no business occupying. In a pinch, as was the case in 2015, the situation may work for a brief period of time. As a shut down late inning reliever, you'd expect a ballclub to do better than Jepsen however. For now, it sounds like manager Paul Molitor has issued a vote of confidence to his 9th inning arm. I'd hope the leash isn't too much longer, as the Twins can't continue to cough up leads and are already scarping for every W tally they can get. At some point, it might make sense to give Trevor May a shot, or even call on one of either J.T. Chargois or Nick Burdi to assume the role. The latter two are more drastic measures, while the former is worth a try. Regardless of what eventually takes place, the path and process Kevin Jepsen is currently travelling down and executing upon can't continue to happen. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. I'm not a journalist, or a beat writer; in fact, my employer has nothing to do with the Minnesota Twins. What I am is a 25 year-old IT Recruiter who loves baseball. I am married to a wife that is my best friend (seriously, she's incredible and puts up with significantly too much Twitter). I have created an outlet for sharing my thoughts as they relate to the Twins and baseball as a whole. What happened on April 26, 2016 was a handful of world's colliding however. While it no doubt may seem an odd paragraph to open this with, it serves a purpose. I have both a Twitter account (@tlschwerz) and this blog for the purpose of an outlet to voice my thoughts on the Twins and all things baseball. Through those mediums, I've crafted some (I think) great stories, solid content, and admittedly some downright stinkers. Twitter has provided an avenue for quick analysis, stat blurbs, and a bit more interaction. Thanks in part to both mediums, I've had the privilege of interacting with both players and those that do this for real (journalists/beat writers) plenty. Regardless of the interactions, I've generally tried to stay fair. Some haven't been fond of the numbers shared and I've found myself blocked or ignored. Others have been receptive to the coverage and have followed or interacted. At the end of the day, it's all about remaining connected to baseball in a fun and hobbyist way. One of my favorite relationships came full circle on the 26th however. Jose Berrios, the Minnesota Twins top pitching prospect (and Major League Baseball's second best), was promoted to the big leagues. Not only did he get his shot, but he felt the need to make me one of the first people he shared it with. The Tweet that broke it here I have covered Jose for much of his time in the Twins organization. He's dominated at every level, and I've generally been engrossed in just how good of a pitcher he truly is. Interviewing him at Double-A New Britain, covering bits of the Future's Game, and speaking with him throughout the offseason's, I've learned there's so much more than than just a great pitcher however. A year ago, I wrote a piece I entitled The Jose Berrios Story. It was as much about baseball, as it was about a man that's a great father, husband, and person. A driven individual who will stop at nothing to achieve his personal goals, and someone that regardless of the situation, puts himself second. I think that in a nutshell explains why this prospect's promotion means so much more than any other. Jose is going to do great things for the Twins and big league baseball. He's going to do great things for himself at the next level, and he'll be accomplishing many goals as a 21 year old that most grown men would do anything to have the chance to attempt. What's important though, is that if none of it comes together, Jose has lost nothing, as he already has it all. Baseball is what he's great at, but it's not at all what makes him great. That's what made sharing such exciting news fun. Of course there were detractors to breaking the news. As a lowly blogger, I was met with plenty of distaste from [some of] the established and heralded writers of Twins Territory. There was obvious vitriol, jealousy, or disregard for sensibility, but it's all ok. At the end of the day, I understand. Breaking news isn't my playground, journalism isn't either, and I'm ok with that. It's not my goal to hop in and be a part of the established, but for a day, I enjoyed playing in the same sandbox. When it comes down to it, there was never anything to be made about breaking news for the sake of notoriety, but instead the culmination of a relationship that will now lend itself to Berrios getting to succeed at the highest level. I couldn't be happier for Jose, his wife, his daughter, and the rest of his family. If there's a young man that deserves everything coming to him, it's La MaKina, and I'm thrilled to sit down and watch the ride. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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