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Ted Schwerzler

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  1. As the 2016 Major League Baseball season comes to an end, the final month of the season sees big league rosters expand. This season is different than last for Paul Molitor's club though. Instead of adding pieces for a stretch run, the Twins are looking for the losing to end and simply calling up a few guys who've already been with the big club. Outside of James Beresford's Major League debut, the September names weren't anything new. Over the past few weeks, Minnesota has been forced to shuffle their 40 man roster a significant bit. With injuries, and poor performances at the highest level, Rob Antony has been tasked with adding some alternative options to the big league clubhouse. A season from now though, Minnesota will be looking to round out a 40 man with less filler and more upside. Given that the Twins are in the process of hiring a new General Manager and Head of Baseball Operations, we're likely a ways off from 40 man decisions being made. That said, I think it's clear there's some room that can be cleared. Before the actual results are brought to our attention, I'll take a stab at the guys I'd look to DFA. To lay the groundwork right now, understand that the Minnesota Twins 40 man roster is currently full. They also have Danny Santana, Glen Perkins, and Phil Hughes all on the 60 day disabled list not taking up an active spot. That all being said, here's the cuts I make: Andrew Albers LHP Albers owns an ERA north of 6.00 for the Twins this season. He's started two games, and the results haven't been pretty. The soft tossing lefty is about as low of a ceiling as it gets for a big league pitcher. His 8.4 K/9 is a career high, but Albers shouldn't be on a bad team, let alone one trying to turn things around. Buddy Boshers RHP Credit Terry Ryan for making another one of his nice non-roster finds. Bothers had been solid early on for the Twins but has really faded down the stretch. His 9.0+ K/9 is solid, but in just 27.0 innings of work, he owns an ERA north of 5.00. I'd actually be surprised to see the Twins move on from Boshers, but trust a new GM to understand that the system has better options in it. Pat Dean LHP Although he just debuted in 2016, Dean hasn't shown anything that suggests he's capable at the big league level. He's been markedly mediocre in Triple-A, and worse for the Twins. He's not a strikeout guy, and he shouldn't be starting at the highest level either. If you want to try him as a lefty out of the pen, I could maybe get behind it out of the gate. Tommy Milone LHP This is probably less of his doing than it is the state of the Twins. Milone is serviceable in the rotation, and is fully capable of pitching at the back of a big league rotation. He needs to be on a staff that has top heavy arms though, and right now, that's not the Twins. Minnesota will likely non-tender him, and his time here will come to an end. Juan Centeno C For virtually the whole season, Centeno has spent borrowed time with the Twins. Only up due to John Ryan Murphy's massive failure in his first year with Minnesota, Centeno has been largely unimpressive. He's mediocre at best with the bat, and has been nothing short of a warm body behind the plate. Had the situation played out differently, Mitch Garver probably could have been in this spot at some point during 2016. Kurt Suzuki C At least immediately following the season, Suzuki will be off of the Twins 40 man. He's set to be a free agent, and I'd hope the Twins aim a bit higher than resigning him. His switch to the Axe Bat has helped to stabilize his offensive production some, but Suzuki isn't going to push the envelope for Minnesota. If I'm the Twins, a more realistic upgrade at such a weak position is where I'd want to turn to. James Beresford IF Understandably a great story, Beresford earned his promotion with his 2015 season more than he did the 2016 year. He's a guy that can do everything, but nothing particularly well. Maybe Minnesota allows him a chance to compete for a super utility spot during spring training, but in reality, he looks much more the part of a guy that does really well at Triple-A. Trevor Plouffe 3B Included in this exercise simply because I believe it's what the Twins will do. I've written multiple times that I believe there's a way for Sano, Plouffe, Mauer, and Park all to coexist. Admittedly though, Plouffe's arbitration number will be out of line with the season he has had. Whether he's traded or not remains a mystery, but the writing could be on the wall for Trevor. Danny Santana IF Santana is currently not on the active 40 man, but I'm not sure I'd add him back either. Outside of the inflated rookie debut season, he hasn't hit well at all, and he simply doesn't get on base enough. The most notable thing Santana does for the Twins is play all over the field. Unfortunately, the caveat is that he doesn't play anywhere at even an average level. Out of options, I'd see if there's a market for him before DFA'ing the scrappy utility man. Robbie Grossman LF Immediately after signing him out of the Indians organization, Grossman looked to have found a new home with the Twins. Even still, he's done a great job at having a disciplined approach all year that's led to a very high OBP number. What he has also done is be the worst left fielder in recent Twins memory, and that's including comparisons to Josh Willingham and Delmon Young. For a leftover outfield type, you can't have a guy that can't play defense. That's Grossman, and he's out for me. Logan Schafer OF If there wasn't already room to complain about Schafer being called up by the Twins, it was compounded when Adam Brett Walker wasn't added following the Triple-A season. Schafer is a warm body in centerfield, but that's about it. Minnesota has other options, and even the jump from Double-A for someone like Zach Granite might be a worthwhile consideration. There you have it, by my count, this scenario would leave Minnesota with 10 openings on the 40 man. Danny Santana isn't currently on it, and then two of the 10 vacancies would be needed for Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins. Where the Twins go from there is anyone's guess. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. That's kind of the point. If there's no reason you wouldn't call him up, despite going 32/3 K/BB, then there was no reason to send him down.
  3. As Major League Baseball allows big league teams to expand their rosters to 40 players come September 1st, it was probably a good bet the Twins would recall Byron Buxton. He was a consensus top prospect in all of baseball, and is absolutely vital to the Twins turning the corner. In calling him back up to the big leagues though, you have to wonder what the plan has been for the Twins as it relates to Buxton. 2015 was a tough debut season for the Twins centerfield phenom. He played in 46 big league games and slashed a measly .209/250/.326. This season, he has followed that up with a .193/.247/.315 line in 63 big league games. The biggest issue for Buxton hasn't been the statistical line though as much as it has been his ability to put the ball in play. Through 2015 in the minor leagues, Buxton had never struck out in more than 26% of his at bats. At the big league level a season ago, he whiffed 34% of the time. It's obviously to be expected that the highest level of competition will provide the toughest test, so his number rising was far from unpredictable. In 2016 however, Buxton has fanned 41% of the time for the Twins. Going backwards was a pretty disheartening development for the top prospect, and something I assume Minnesota wanted him to work on. When Buxton was sent back to Triple-A Rochester following the Twins August 5 contest, he had batted just .204/.257/.322 in a 45 game stretch with the big club. Over that period, he'd struck out 56 times in 152 at bats, or 37% of the time. With Minnesota's season already well down the drain a focus on plate discipline and approach on the farm seemed to be what Paul Molitor and his cronies were looking for. The reality however, is that what took place was anything but. Down in Rochester for just 20 games in his latest stint, Buxton owned a .257/.288/.514 slash line. He garnered hitter of the week honors after homering in four straight games, and his bat showed plenty of pop. The problem though, is that's not the kind of hitter Byron Buxton is (nor the one the Twins should want him to be). While you can criticize Minnesota for asking a corner player to hit for contact, doing so for a speedy centerfielder would be foolhardy. At his best, Buxton should be a gap hitter that sprays line drives all over the field. In Rochester during those 20 games however, he struck out a whopping 32 times while drawing just three walks. The 32 strikeouts also represented a 43% K-rate. There's simply no other way to describe that number, other than suggesting it's unfathomably bad. Both Rochester teammates Daniel Palka and Adam Brett Walker, who are well known as home run or bust hitters, have struck out in 42% of their at bats at Triple-A this season. Buxton surpassing even their marks is not at all a good look for a guy the Twins need to produce at the big league level. Understanding that rosters expand because of a selected date on the calendar is one thing, but Buxton did nothing to suggest he's ready to come back up. A bigger problem here is that the scenario as a whole plays out in a way that suggests the Twins are simply guessing. Minnesota sent Buxton down presumably to get confidence back and work on not striking out. Arguably, he did neither, but has been recalled. If the goal is to acclimate him for the role that he once again will need to play for Minnesota in 2017, then why hasn't this situation been used previously? Guys like Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, and Kennys Vargas all could have benefited from extended big league time in a season prior to being relied upon. This year, players such as Mitch Garver, Jake Reed, and D.J. Baxendale could arguably be put in that boat. If the goal is simply to get players feet wet knowing you need them to be ready to go a year from now, using September as a welcome mat regardless of results should have been done well before Buxton. At the end of the day, it was probably foolish to expect that the Twins would leave Buxton down on the farm. That being said, he regressed by all statistical means there, and rewarding him for it seems counterproductive to whatever plan may have been in place. Some point down the line Buxton will get it, I truly believe that. Right now though, I think he's struggling, and so are the Twins when it comes to figuring out how to fix it. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. In 2016, the Minnesota Twins have been among the worst teams in baseball. While that's far from an ideal situation, the reality is that it's provided an opportunity for the organization to get a look at a lot of different players. In too many cases though, they haven't taken it. Why not remains a realistic question. You can almost take your pick as to which players you may want to shake your head at getting significant time for Minnesota. Danny Santana has played in 75 games this season, Juan Centeno has caught 44, Ryan O'Rourke is currently on the big league roster, and Neil Ramirez was given over a month of poor performances before being sent packing. Over the course of the season, Paul Molitor has gone with plenty of low ceiling options. Now, if the Twins were looking to field the team with the most veteran presence, there's probably some merit to their roster construction. The reality however, is that this team hasn't been good since the get go, and they really owe nobody anything. Poor performances didn't need to be compounded by lengthy stays on the 25 man roster. While Minnesota would have been promoting inexperience, it's that youth that is going to be relied upon to turn things around. Highlighting the scenario as a whole is a current member of the starting rotation, Andrew Albers. Albers hasn't started a major league game since 2013, for a Twins team that finished the year 66-96 while also having Cole DeVries and P.J. Walters make starts. Since then, he was a failed starter in Korea (5.89 ERA in 28 starts), and played a game in the Atlantic League for the Lancaster Barnstormers. Now starting for Minnesota, he was added to the 40 man roster over a more deserving option in Jason Wheeler. Wheeler, a 25 year old 8th round draft pick by the Twins, owns a 3.23 ERA in 23 Triple-A starts this season. He's not a high strikeout guy, owning just a 6.4 K/9 over 131 minor league starts. He pitched the final game for Double-A Chattanooga a season ago to win the Southern League title, and he's owned a 3.04 ERA in 2016 after resurfacing in Triple-A. By all measures, Wheeler has earned it at this point. It's in these situations that the Twins appear to be operating with a confusing knowledge of their own organization. Sure, Wheeler is far from a sure thing, but when a 40 man roster move is needed regardless, putting the developed player with some upside in position to compete seems like a better bet than the castoff retread. In failing to understand these principles, the Twins turn an already bad season, into one that they learn little as well. You have to ask yourself what the Twins may have been able to learn from Mitch Garver, D.J. Baxendale, or Jake Reed at the big league level right now. As rosters expand, they could easily be called up. No matter the 40 man situation, Minnesota is far from a position in which they don't have warm bodies occupying roster spots. Rather than lose and do so without purpose, using the stretch run as an acclimation process seems to be an ideal scenario. At some point, you'd hope that the Twins would put stock in the players they've drafted, and seemingly developed. You can't assume they'll all work out, but rather than going out and cycling through the Neil Ramirez's and Edward Mujica's of the world, playing time at the highest levels for those expected to carry some realistic weight would be a good idea. Sooner rather than later, the Twins need to understand (and covey that) what they have at their disposal, and actually use it. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. The Minnesota Twins have played a lot of bad baseball in 2016. With the worst record in the American League, 49-81, the lone team below them in all of baseball is the hapless Atlanta Braves. In a matter of days though, we could see an influx of prospects from the farm as big league rosters expand. For a team looking for something of interest, this could be it. For the most part, the big names Minnesota Twins fans have been clamoring for have made their debuts. Byron Buxton has gone back and forth, while Jose Berrios has followed suit as well. As the calendar turns to September however, there's a handful of guys that could be called up as the Triple-A season comes to an end. Here's a look at some names we could be seeing in a Twins uniform not too far from now: Adam Brett Walker- OF Walker has betted .251/.313/.489 for Triple-A Rochester this season. once again, he's leading his respective league (the International League in this case) in homers with 26. A big power guy with swing and miss tendencies, he's posted a .282/.326/.520 line over his last 47 games. For someone already on the 40 man roster, Walker should be about as close to a slam dunk as it gets to join the Twins in September. Mitch Garver- C You could make a case for Garver to be in the big leagues already. He played in 95 games for Double-A Chattanooga this season owning a .753 OPS before earning his promotion to Triple-A. Since arriving in Rochester, he's totaled an .823 OPS in 15 games and he's caught 50% (26/52) of would be base stealers across both levels this season. I'd argue he should start 2017 with the Twins, and he's an immediate upgrade over Juan Centeno for Minnesota. Daniel Palka- OF If there's a reach when it comes to offensive additions on this list, then Palka may be it. His production looks very similar to that of Walker's, but he doesn't have the benefit of already being on the 40 man roster. Palka has hit 33 homers in 2016 between Double and Triple-A. Acquired from the Diamondbacks in exchange for Chris Herrmann, Palka has put up a respectable .247/.316/.523 line in 46 Triple-A games. He could take over the 4th outfield spot for Robbie Grossman to open 2017, and there'd be plenty more pop in his bat. Like Walker, he does strike out a ton as well, so I'm not sure Minnesota has room for both. D.J. Baxendale- RP If there was a guy who you can't blame for having some hard feelings when the Twins called up Alex Wimmers, it was D.J. Baxendale. The former 10th round pick owns a 1.19 ERA in 30.1 Triple-A IP this season. His 10.1 K/9 is the best mark since rookie ball, and now working as a reliever full time, he's excelled in the pen. Baxendale should be in the conversation to relieve for the Twins on Opening Day in 2017, and getting him a month of work sounds like a good idea. Jason Wheeler- SP When it comes to Triple-A starting pitching, Minnesota has exhausted most of it. The one player they have not yet called upon however is Wheeler. Not currently a 40 man guy, Wheeler owns a 3.23 ERA across 23 starts for Rochester this season. His 7.0 K/9 is pedestrian, but his 2.2 BB/9 suggests he limits damage. Wheeler isn't flashy by any means, but if we're looking for lefty options, Minnesota would be better served having him start than either Pat Dean or Andrew Albers. Jake Reed- RP Much later than expected, Jake Reed should be up with the Twins. I pegged Reed to be called up sometime in the middle of the summer. While he had an up and down time at Double-A Chattanooga, he's really settled in of late. For Rochester, he's made six appearances totaling 7.0 IP. One the year, he owns a 9.6 K/9 over 67.0 IP and that number will absolutely play in the Twins pen. He's a hard thrower with good stuff who can get big league hitters out. Like Baxendale, Reed should be a staple in the 2017 Minnesota bullpen, time to get him acquainted now. Outside of the aforementioned players, it stands to reason that Minnesota will recall a handful of guys who have spent time with the big club previously. Jose Berrios could come back, Tyler Duffey will likely head to the majors, and Kennys Vargas could also see a return. Neil Ramirez, Logan Darnell, and Edqard Mujica represent former big leaguers not currently on the 40 man, which makes their chances tougher. There are two guys that I'd probably hold off on promoting however: John Ryan Murphy- C Acquired from the Yankees for Aaron Hicks, Murphy has been a massive bust. Not only didn't he perform at the big league level, but he's flopped at Triple-A as well. In 78 games, he's posted a measly .590 OPS and he's caught just 21% (10-47) base stealers. Garver has outplayed him since he got to Rochester, and Minnesota sending Murphy a harsh message going into the offseason is something I'd definitely be in favor of. Byron Buxton- CF It's not so much that I think Buxton needs a message sent, or isn't going to make it, as it is that we don't need to go down this road again. Simply put, he's not ready. Sure, he just won the hitter of the week award, but homers and average aside, he owns a 29/2 strikeout to walk ratio since his demotion back to Triple-A. That's awful, and largely demonstrative of his big league problems as well. Keep Byron on the farm, let him work on things through the offseason, and hopefully he wins the job out of spring training on his own merit. We should have a lot more clarity in regards to what actually takes place over the course of the next few days, but for now it appears like the Twins could find some intriguing names on their roster down the stretch. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. I think what I would've done differently at this point is to tell him stop worrying about what everyone has told him. For the last month, just go pitch. Don't think, don't work on all this stuff people are trying to fix. Go find out what works for you. That's likely what he's going to do at Triple-A and there he's already mastered it.
  7. While all those things are true, and likely, there's little denying that Paul Molitor and the current staff haven't hindered the process of being a reality at this point.
  8. By no means has he pitched well, but the pattern of lunacy displayed around young players and the lack of development this staff has been able to claim credit for is appalling.
  9. Jose Berrios made his major league debut on April 27, 2016. He now has made nine starts for the Twins, the latest of which came today against the Detroit Tigers. As has been the case more often than not, he wasn't good. This time though, it resulted in Jose Berrios being demoted to Triple-A Rochester. This is the second time Berrios has been demoted by the Twins this season. The latest occurrence though highlights a culture of ineptitude at the big league level. Everyone from Paul Molitor on down seems absolutely clueless when it comes to not only Berrios, but the majority of the young prospects supposedly tasked with revitalizing the organization. On the season, Berrios owns a 9.24 ERA and is 2-4 across his nine big league starts. He owns a poor 35/23 K/BB ratio, and his pitches have been all over the strike zone. In hoping to fix that, Minnesota has recently gone with a committee approach. Molitor, pitching coach Neil Allen, pen coach Eddie Guardado, starter Ervin Santana, and even Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven have taken to observing the young Puerto Rican. The collective brain trust has failed, and done so miserably. The issue I have with how things went down following Berrios' latest poor start is that the Twins come out looking clueless in the whole mess. A young 22 year old top pitching prospect just got shelled. It's not the first time, and his struggles haven't been consistently getting better either. Instead of letting him continue to work through it under the best coaches the organization should have, the big league club (and staff) simply washes their hands of him. While with the Twins in his latest stint, Berrios was given direction by seemingly everyone with a mouth and the ability to walk to the Target Field pen. No doubt reeling with the amount of information and tweaks he was trying to make to his game, the process was absolutely experiencing more negativity than anything else. Rather than realize that this club is destined for 100 losses though, and Berrios continuing to work through things against the only competition he hasn't mastered, Minnesota gave up. Earlier this season, Jorge Polanco was sent back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues despite no reason for Minnesota to do so. Paul Molitor was clueless when it came to intitially utilizing Max Kepler. Heck, Byron Buxton is so wrecked that prominent national analyst Keith Law has suggested Buxton stay at Triple-A until he's traded to an organization that "knows how to develop him as a hitter" or Molitor and his staff is gone. The collective coaching staff at the highest level for the Twins is arguably a larger laughing stock than that of the clubs 48-79 record. Don't worry though, Jim Pohlad has suggested that Paul Molitor will be the first thing inherited by his newly hired General Manager. At this point, you can't help but to feel for the likes of Jose Berrios and Byron Buxton before him. Berrios doesn't have a good outing or two to spare him. Thankfully Kepler has 15 home runs, and Polanco has a solid average, otherwise the likelihood of Molitor continuing to mismanage them would remain high as well. Going into 2017, there's nothing more important than Jose Berrios and Byron Buxton getting right at the major league level. The problem is, the Minnesota Twins don't have organization pieces in place to allow that to happen. Unfortunately, we got to see that on full display yet again. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. That's really the greater point of this article. The Twins aren't going to compete next year. Don't go out and sign mediocre FA pitchers just to have bodies. You have bodies with high ceilings, let them throw. Then heading in 2018, evaluate what works.
  11. Yep, the rebuilding has been awful because Ryan never committed to it. He was all about band aids and didn't develop much of anything. If you can make the stipulation that Dozier returns a controllable starter under 30 that's at least a number 2, I move him. I just don't know if that's logical.
  12. Like Ryan before him, Molitor shouldn't be given that opportunity. He's been awful this season more often than not, and should be shown the door as soon as the new GM steps in the building.
  13. Over the past few days, it seems the talk of Twins starting pitching has reared its head again. I talked about how bad it's been recently, and it probably can't be overstated. Right now, Minnesota has the worst ERA in the big leagues and it's not particularly close. They don't strike anyone out, and it's just not a great situation. A year from now though, they don't need pitching either. Now before getting all up in arms, let's take a step back. It's nearly guaranteed that the Twins will lose 90 games this season, and they very well could find themselves staring at 100 losses for the first time since 1982. Regardless of the fact that Molitor and his bunched just missed the playoffs a season ago, they really aren't in a position to compete a season from now anyways. The most important factor for 2017 is that the new GM realize that, and construct the team with that reality in mind. Over the course of the 2011 to 2014 seasons, the Twins were in no position to compete. What they did during the offseason though was to add warm bodies like Kevin Correia and Jason Marquis to their starting pitching staff. At that point, it may have been necessary with a less healthier farm system, especially on the pitching front. Right now though, that couldn't be further from the truth. Here's the reality, the Twins already have Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson as guaranteed rotation arms to start 2017. Assuming they don't trade Ervin Santana, he'll be at the top, and without DFA'ing Hector Santiago (which I'd be in favor of), there's just one spot left. That one spot is going to need to go to top pitching prospect Jose Berrios. Therein lies the problem. Minnesota could have as many as four of the five starting rotation spots filled, and only two of them may be around when this club gets back to relevance. If the hope is that 2018 sees Minnesota at the top of the AL Central again, that rotation should be led by Berrios. Behind the aforementioned group to open 2017, whoever is managing the 25 man needs to be getting significant looks at longer term options. Trevor May's back is all but begging to go back to starting pitching. Adalberto Mejia is a top 100 pitching prospect Minnesota was flipped by the Giants for Eduardo Nunez. Stephen Gonsalves is nearly kicking the door down to be called up to the show, and he has both Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart behind him. There's a ton of inexperience and youth among these names, but using 2017 as anything but a proving ground for the arms doesn't make much sense. With the way things are set up, the bullpen should follow suit with the starting staff. Players like Jake Reed, Zack Jones, Trevor Hildenberger, D.J. Baxendale, Alex Wimmers, and even a healthy Nick Burdi should be given significant run in relief next season. While there's some spots already claimed, putting retreads ahead of the home grown talent doesn't stand to make much sense. Now, it's absolutely fair to question the validity of each of these options (starting or relief) working out. There could be a handful of mediocrity among the options, and finding top tier players isn't an easy ask. That being said, making a move for an ace in a losing season before finding out what your internal talent looks like doesn't sound like a great ask either. If you really want to deal Brian Dozier for a top tier starter, you can probably ask around. Given that he's 29 and not signed into any of his free agent years, I'm not sure that the return is necessarily what it's made out to look like. Outside of that scenario, hold onto your top prospects and actually play them. Turn 2017 into a big league providing ground. Get the kids' feet wet and make sure you know who's capable of leading you into relevancy during the 2018 season. Prior to 2018, the Twins will likely have the same opportunity to make a deal in swapping prospects for a starter should they choose to do so. They'll likely have two more top 10 draft picks in their system, and a GM in place to actually turn things around should all be realities. Right now though, practice some patience and wait. It may not be glamorous, but the 2017 Twins shouldn't be significantly different than this bunch. Move on from the holdovers and get the perceived difference makers from the farm up. After you've gotten some time to complete evaluations at the highest level, then figure out what's next. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  14. Santana as in Danny Santana? He's probably not even a major leaguer...
  15. Sano should be untouchable. The Twins aren't close enough to go for it in 2017.
  16. If you've been reading Off The Baggy at all this season, there's been no one I've been more all over the place on than Brian Dozier. From wondering if he's selling out too much, or becoming defiant in his approach during his down swing, to marveling at his uptick, his season has been a roller coaster ride. Since May 25 however, he's turned it on, and the results have been incredible. At this point, you know what Brian Dozier is. He's a pull hitter, although doing so less often than in 2015 (just 54.9% of the time this season). He hits most of his homers to left field, and he's an adequate defender. This season, more of Dozier's fly balls are leaving the yard (15.8% HR/FB ratio) and he's hitting 32.9% of balls he puts in play with hard contact. Let's end the statistical analysis there though and look at the ridiculousness of the numbers he's provided us in 2016. In 2012, Dozier burst onto the scene during spring training. Many wanted him to come north with the club as the starting shortstop. He ended up being promoted in May and owned a career worst .603 OPS while playing a very poor defensive shortstop. Since transitioning to second base, Dozier has gone from non-prospect to relative national name. Over the course of his career, Dozier has amassed 14.0 fWAR, which is already 25th best in Minnesota Twins history. Among franchise second basemen, only Rod Carew and Chuck Knoblauch have a higher total than Brian. Really, what fuels his rise though, has been the power numbers. This season, Dozier has set a new career high in longballs for the Twins with 29 (excluding his wiped out shot in the Twins suspended game). Over the course of Major League Baseball's entire history, only 39 times has a second basemen hit that many. He becomes just the 18th second basemen in big league history to reach that plateau. As things stand currently, Dozier is on pace to set career highs in multiple different categories. His batting average of .268 is well above his career mark of .245, and his .877 OPS is over 100 points better than his previous career best of .762 set in 2014. He's already tripled five times this season, another career high, and his 87 strikeouts have him on pace to post a career low by a longshot. Considering the power output, Dozier also compare favorably across all of baseball position-wide. His ISO of .268 is easily the best mark of his career, and currently puts him 12th in the big leagues during 2016. That mark is higher than that of names such as Nelson Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton, Manny Machado, and Mike Trout. Thus far, the Twins have played 125 games, meaning they've got 37 left to go. Calculating off of his current pace, Dozier would end the season with 38 homers. That would be the 9th highest single season total in Twins franchise history, and the highest by a player not named Harmon Killebrew. 38 homers would tie for the 7th most in major league history during a single season by a second basemen. To summarize, Brian Dozier went from a fun spring training story, to a failed shortstop, to an incredibly polarizing second basemen. He's now one of the game's most legitimate middle infield power hitters, and the Twins are season production at levels they've never before experienced. To put it bluntly, Brian Dozier is a lot of fun. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  17. I think a big part of the "Polanco" problem, is through Molitor. Ryan doesn't deal with lineup construction and poor youth usage. That should fall squarely on Paul's shoulders, and has continued to be a problem.
  18. I've been long saying Baxendale should be in the majors right now on Twitter. I think he gets there for good next year, but probably not out of the gate.
  19. Plouffe staying provides insurance for Sano's elbow. I don't think Danny Santana has any business being on a big league roster, and especially not on a bad team. I'm good with dealing Dozier if you think you can get a top tier starter. I don't know that it's the case though, and then you create an issue at SS again until at least 2018. Santiago leaving for nothing is in part due to not wanting to pay him for mediocrity, and him not being in the mix opens up a roster spot.
  20. Ramos is a long shot, and I think the money I suggested is probably where the Twins stop. Ultimately, he probably gets more than that. I'd be ok with him fixing the issues rather than resigning Suzuki to a bandaid deal.
  21. There's no denying that 2016 has been a colossal disappointment across Twins Territory. Even if you weren't among the group of believers thinking this club could be a playoff team, you likely didn't see this level of disaster. That being said, it's probably past time to begin looking at next year. When doing so, maybe the most important factor is what names fill up the 25 man roster. Here's some stipulations for this exercise. I won't be using trades to acquire anyone. First, I'm not a great matchmaker, and predicting who may or may not be available just isn't a rabbit hole I want to dive down. Secondly, I won't be taking any stabs at arbitration salaries. It's a complicated process, and while I'll note guaranteed salaries and any free agent dollars, I will merely mention players that will be arbitration eligible as well as referencing their 2016 dollars. With that out of the way, here we go: Starting Lineup (9) 1B Joe Mauer $23 million 2B Brian Dozier $6 million 3B Trevor Plouffe Arbitration Eligible ($7.25m in 2016) SS Jorge Polanco Pre-Arbitration C Wilson Ramos $20 million (5 year, $100 million) LF Eddie Rosario Pre-Arbitration CF Bryon Buxton Pre-Arbitration RF Max Kepler Pre-Arbitration DH Miguel Sano Pre-Arbitration I'm not of the belief that Brian Dozier should be dealt. He may be the Twins best trade chip, but having not bought into his free agent years hurts the Twins some. Play him up the middle with Jorge Polanco and let them be the catalyst of the Minnesota lineup. My thoughts on Plouffe coming back have been fleshed out here, although I'm nervous to see what he gets in arbitration. By allowing him to play the field, Miguel Sano can focus on being a hitter, what he does best. Obviously the biggest splash here is the Wilson Ramos acquisition. He's the best hitting catcher in the big leagues, and that deal may even be a bit light. Considering he just turned 29 and won't be 30 until the end of next season, I'd look to wrap him up for at least five years. He'll have plenty of suitors, and there's no telling what his feelings towards the organization are. Minnesota has serious catching issues. Don't keep putting a band-aid on them, the new GM can make a splash and fix this spot almost immediately. Bench (4) Eduardo Escobar Arbitration Eligible ($2.15m in 2016) Mitch Garver Pre-Arbitration Daniel Palka Pre-Arbitration Byung Ho Park $2.75 million When it comes to utility infielders, it's basically between Escobar and Danny Santana for the Twins. I'm really not concerned about Santana being out of options, and his positional flexibility doesn't mean much when he's below average everywhere. Give me Escobar to spell the infield. I'm more than ok with the idea that Mitch Garver can leap frog recently acquired John Ryan Murphy. The former Yankees backstop has struggled all year, and the Twins home grown product has done anything but. Garver can spell Ramos when needed. In this scenario, Palka essentially replaces Robbie Grossman, who I don't think has a place on the 2017 Twins. Palka's power is real, he should be a very capable bench power bat, and can start in either corner outfield spot one or two days a week. Palka will strike out plenty, but I think he's shown just a bit more than the other guy I considered here, Adam Brett Walker. That leaves us with Byung Ho Park. 2016 has been a disappointment for the Korean slugger. He's been nagged by a wrist issue, but I think there's a significant learning curve he's struggling with too. 2017 may see him head back to Triple-A again, but from the get go, let him rotate in at first base and designated hitter. Starting Rotation (5) Ervin Santana $13.5 million Phil Hughes $13.2 million Kyle Gibson Arbitration Eligible ($586k in 2016) Trevor May Pre-Arbitration Jose Berrios Pre-Arbitration Having nearly $27 million tied up in two average starters isn't ideal, but the rest of the Twins rotation comes on the cheap. I'd struggle with dealing Santana in part because of Hughes' injury concerns, as well as knowing the open market has next to nothing that you could replace him with. Minnesota will need to hope Hughes returns healthy and at least somewhat effective to start the 2017 season. After the top two guys, it's youth all the way. Trevor May to the rotation is not something I've ever been convinced of, but his back suggests he needs to be back there. If he can pitch anything like he has as a reliever, Minnesota may have a high strikeout guy here which is something they desperately need. Speaking of strikeouts, Jose Berrios should provide plenty if he can get locked in as well. Something has to click, but I think he'll be fine. I'd really rather see Adalberto Mejia in this five somehow, but I'm just not sure where he fits. If you deal Santana or Hughes can't stay healthy, then there's obvious room. There should be plenty of steam behind Stephen Gonsalves being an early season addition as well. Bullpen (7) Glen Perkins $6.5 million J.T. Chargois Pre-Arbitration Taylor Rogers Pre-Arbitration Tyler Duffey Pre-Arbitration Brandon Kintzler Arbitration Eligible Michael Tonkin Pre- Arbitration Ryan Pressly Arbitration Eligible ($520k in 2016) There's some real concern as to whether or not Perkins is ever effective again. Either way, I'd start sliding Chargois into some save situations sooner rather than later. Rogers has been lights out for Minnesota this season, and I think it's just the tip of the iceberg. Light is another hard thrower, coming over from Boston in exchange for Fernando Abad, and he could help the Twins push the strikeout total in relief. When it comes to holdovers, Tonkin and Pressly both seem no brainers for me from the get go. I'm not sure Tonkin is a long term option, but I think he's too good to cut bait with from the get go. Pressly has been one of the Twins best relievers since 2014, and the former Rule 5 pick continues to be as trustworthy as they come in relief. Probably the toughest to pin down for me is Brandon Kintzler. He's pitched himself into the immediate 2017 plans for the Twins, but he's not a piece of the future either. Operating as a closer, he's done admirably. Striking out just 5.5 per nine though, there's little upside here. I think he warms a 7th inning spot for the likes of Jake Reed, Pat Light, or Zack Jones in the not-so-distant future. If Minnesota gets any trade offers for him, I'd move him immediately. If there's a surprise in this group, it's my inclusion of former starter Tyler Duffey. He was a reliever in college, and his lack of a solid third pitch has hurt him significantly as a starter. He profiles as a guy who could be very good in short bursts, and even if he's your long man, the Twins are better positioned with him out of the rotation. As things sit right now, I feel pretty good about the above landscape. Sure, players like Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas are jettisoned from the organization as they are out of options, but trading them prior to losing them would be a good way to go about things. I have a hard time believing the Twins are destined for greatness in 2017, but think the above provides a solid foundation to begin to go for it in 2018. While there's not a massive overhaul, I don't think there really needs to be either. Seeing the Twins turn the page the past few months, this current group is capable of playing competitive baseball. If the 2017 group I've laid out can play good baseball on a nightly basis, they'll hang around .500 long enough to be relevant all season. At the end of the day, they're going to need to pitch, which has been the organization's downfall. The pen is set up to be creative and cheap, while the rotation relies on arms that should have higher ceilings than those that have been run out in the not so distant past. Should the Twins spend this offseason, it needs to be at the catcher position. With a free agent class void of any real diamonds, throwing money around with capable internal options doesn't seem ideal. That may not provide fireworks, but keeping a focus on the future needs to be the goal. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  22. I'd non-tender Santiago and not think twice. I'm posting my 2017 25 man roster tomorrow so I won't dive into what I'd do, but there's no pitcher the Twins should sign this offseason in my opinion.
  23. Now with the 2016 Major League Baseball season quickly racing to a close, the statistical output for teams has a solid base. When looking at team compiled numbers, no longer is there such a thing as a small sample size. For the Twins, that spells disaster once again on the starting pitching front. As has been the case plenty in recent years, Minnesota has failed to get out of its own when way it comes to getting games off on a good foot. In 2016, the Minnesota Twins own a major league worst 5.37 ERA for starters. They are joined by Oakland, Arizona, and Los Angeles as the only other teams with starting ERAs north of the 5.00 mark. When it comes to strikeouts, Minnesota is also dead last with a 6.70 K/9 total. Only the Brewers, Athletics, Braves, and Rangers have also failed to strike out at least seven batters per nine innings with their starters. The unfortunate reality for the Twins is that this isn't new. Almost certain to lose 90 games again this season, Minnesota ranked 30th in ERA and 29th in K/9 during the 2014 season, last in both categories during 2013, 29th and 30th respectively in 2012, and 26th in ERA while being 28th in K/9 during 2011. During their long drought of losing, starting pitching has been a significant problem. Even in 2015 when the Twins made a surprising run at the playoffs, starters owned just the 15th best ERA in the big leagues, while compiling the 28th best K/9 mark. As has been the case for quite some time, starters that don't strike anyone out generally struggle. Individually, only Jose Berrios owns a K/9 of at least one per inning (9.0) among Twins starters. Tyler Duffey is second best coming in at 7.53 K/9, and rotation ace Ervin Santana has compiled a 6.97 K/9, When looking for pitching help in recent seasons, Minnesota has made a habit of going for inning eaters as opposed to difference makers. Should the Twins be looking to turn things around in 2017 and beyond, and renewed focus in regards to their starting pitching is a must. Going into 2017, the Twins likely could be looking at just two veteran pitchers in Santana and Phil Hughes. If they can somehow get out from underneath Hector Santiago's roster spot (even DFA'ing him), three rotation spots should be up for grabs. You'd hope that one of those would be handed to Jose Berrios. Ideally things begin to click for him, and whatever the big league coaches haven't been able to unlock is figured out. From there, a return of Trevor May to the rotation makes sense, and the 5th spot could be decided between Adelberto Mejia or even rising prospect Stephen Gonsalves. What is promising among the aforementioned group is that the latter three or four (Berrios, May, Mejia, and Gonsalves) are all capable of generating swings and misses. Minnesota may flip Santana, and Hughes is far from a sure thing given his injury issues. Regardless, a transition to a more dominant version of a starter is something that's going to be necessary for Minnesota to be relevant and competitive. This whole importance of strikeouts is something that's been a shift over the landscape of major league baseball for some time. Thus far, the Twins haven't adapted and it's been to their detriment. What is worth noting however, is that a change can be made when it's actually concentrated on. In 2012, the Cleveland Indians found themselves 29th in K/9 and just four years later, they've vaulted up to 5th. Actually implementing the change is half of the battle. Considering that a new GM is coming, and organizational changes will be made, there's reason to believe that Minnesota stops operating on old principles. If the Twins are going to compete, they'll need to start playing the form of baseball that the current major league landscape dictates. If starting pitching continues to be something Minnesota takes mulligans on, it won't matter how many top prospects come through the system. As has always been the case, pitching reigns supreme, and the Twins getting on board with true starters is a must. A turnaround is more than possible, but it needs to be one that the organization commits to. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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