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2017 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Absolutely. I expect Gonsalves to be good, but he's well off the level that Berrios should be expected. Also, on that note, I believe J.T. Chargois retained his rookie status for 2017. I left him off due to the amount of MLB time he had, but he's a top 7 prospect for me if I would've included him. -
2017 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Being that Berrios is already at the big league level, he needs to contribute there. Gonsalves needs to follow suit, and Jay moving to relief would hurt MN greatly. Getting something of value at the MLB level out of Stewart remains a must as well. -
With the 2016 regular season in the books, the Arizona Fall League underway, and the Major League Baseball season barreling towards the World Series, it's time to take a look at what's to come for the Minnesota Twins. The last prospect update here at Off The Baggy was the 2016 Midseason Top 15 (you can find that here). As 2017 gets underway for the Twins, Derek Falvey will be tasked with getting the organization back on track. A large group of youth has already graduated from prospect status, but it's the young talent that the Twins will have to build their turnaround on. Despite no longer being a top five farm system, there's plenty of talent on the way. With that out of the way, let's get into it. 15. Lewis Thorpe SP The Aussie starter remains one of the most intriguing arms in the Twins system. He has the stuff to be a capable middle of the rotation arm, but injuries have derailed his development. Still just 20 years old, Thorpe hasn't seen live actions since 2014 with Low-A Cedar Rapids. He was supposed to be back on the mound post Tommy John this year, but never could get healthy. 2016 remains a pivotal campaign for him. When right, he's a top 10 prospect for Minnesota. 14. Jake Reed RP I really thought Reed would debut with Minnesota in 2016. Unfortunately a slow start derailed that opportunity, but he did finish strong with a promotion to Triple-A Rochester. He's one of Minnesota's hard throwing relief options, and there's real reason to believe he could push for an early big league opportunity in 2017. Reed has strikeout stuff, and his movement is the real deal. 13. Travis Blankenhorn 3B A third round pick in 2015, Blankenhorn is already at Low-A Cedar Rapids. Just 20 years old and taken out of high school, he really started coming into his own last season. After tearing it up for Elizabethton, Blankenhorn had a solid .774 OPS in 25 games for the Kernels. He's got pop in his bat, and should continue to swing his way up the Twins system. 12. Nick Burdi RP Like Thorpe, Burdi lost some really significant development time in 2016. He was injured down in Fort Myers during spring training in a fluke accident, and then couldn't get himself healthy enough to pitch with other injuries throughout the year. When he's right, his stuff reaches triple-digits, and penciling him in as a future closer makes a ton of sense. If Burdi can prove he's healthy, and hone in his command a bit, he should join the Twins quickly in 2017. 11. Wander Javier SS Speculation and projection remains the key to Javier and his ranking. The Twins spent a boatload on the international free agent out of the Dominican. He's just 17 and played only nine games in the Dominican Summer League during 2016 due to injury. His ceiling is as high as anyone on this list, and if everything breaks right, he could be a star. Javier should be stateside for 2017 and seeing how he does in the lower rookie levels is something to monitor in the year ahead. 10. Daniel Palka OF Voted by many publications as the Twins minor league hitter of the year, Palka came to the organization in the Chris Herrmann trade. He hits for ridiculous power and was one of the top home run producers in both the Southern and International Leagues this season. He's going to swing and miss plenty, but from a bat perspective, you might not find a better power tool in other organizations. 9. Adam Brett Walker OF The only reason that Palka's power tool isn't the most impressive among Twins prospects is because Walker exists. Once again this season, Walker made a mockery of pitches that he sent over the fence. His game and raw power are easily 80 grade, and while that remains his greatest asset, he's continued to hold his own while moving up to Triple-A. The swing and miss tendency is real, and his arm isn't good enough to be an every day corner outfielder, but he should be considered as an extra off the bench for the Twins sooner rather than later. 8. Kohl Stewart SP If there's a prospect I'm more down on than anyone else for the Twins, it's Stewart. After being selected 4th overall in 2013, he's consistently taken steps backwards. A consensus top 40 prospect in all of baseball prior to 2015, he's fallen off of nearly every top 100 list. Stewart is still young at just 22 and already pitching at Double-A. Unfortunately, he has shown very little ability to strike anyone out, his command has progressively gotten worse, and he's now strung together multiple seasons of injury concerns. The upside remains apparent, but Stewart's stock has plummeted. He's got time to turn the tables, and that taking place would be huge. 7. Felix Jorge SP Creating prospect lists requires players to be evaluated on their own accord. Jorge's ceiling isn't as high as some of the other names on this list, but his floor should also be much more projectable. He looks the part of a mid-to-back-end starter, and he's up to Double-A at 22 years old. Jorge's stuff is never going to overpower hitters, but he doesn't walk anyone, and he limits damage. If he continues his current path, he could be up at Triple-A Rochester by the end of the 2017 season. 6. Adalberto Mejia SP Acquired from the Giants in trading Eduardo Nunez, Mejia is about as good of a return as the Twins could have gotten. He's a top 100 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus, and he absolutely should be capable of being a big league starter. His strikeout numbers aren't going to blow anyone away, but he limits damage by not allowing free passes. Coming into the year, Mejia will be one of the first guys called upon to slide into the Twins starting rotation. 5. Fernando Romero SP 21 years old and already mastering High-A Fort Myers, 2016 was an exciting year for Romero. Coming off a missed 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, Romero looked as good as ever. Making 16 starts across Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, his 1.89 ERA dazzled. He has strikeout stuff, and this season, took a big step forward in limiting walks as well. If Romero flashed what we should expect from him going forward, he's going to be a top of the rotation arm, and could be one of Minnesota's best kept secrets. 4. Tyler Jay SP Ranking Tyler Jay is somewhat difficult, because the jury is still out on what he becomes. Operating solely as a reliever in college, he transitioned to a starter full time for Minnesota. His numbers were solid at High-A Fort Myers, but he got lit up pitching for Double-A Chattanooga. He has strikeout stuff, but has to scale it back some when starting. 2017 will be big for the former Illinois pitcher as it will likely go a long ways in determining the Twins future plans for him. If Jay ends up being a reliever, he could be a very, very good one. That said, even the most elite reliever isn't something you're hoping for with the 6th overall draft pick. 3. Nick Gordon SS If there's someone you should be watching in the Arizona Fall League, it's Gordon. He was drafted as a shortstop and expected to stick because of his glove. Thus far, the leather has gotten worse, and it was especially bad in 2016. He made 26 errors for Fort Myers this season, and there's some real doubts now that he sticks at the premium position. The bat has begun to come around, and his .721 OPS was a career best, but the 20 year old will need to continue to grow as a whole if he's going to be an asset up the middle for Minnesota. 2. Alex Kirilloff OF This time in 2017, Kirilloff has a chance to be the Twins top prospect, and he could go a long ways to being one of the best in baseball with another strong year. Playing for Elizabethton after getting drafted, Kirilloff's bat just destroyed the lague. He ended with a .794 OPS, but hovered around a .340 average for most of the year. He launched seven homers, and the power, both gap and home run, was as real as it was suggested. He's a bat first prospect, and continuing to hit will be his ticket to advancing. After the initial showing though, betting against him would seem foolish. 1. Stephen Gonsalves SP After Jose Berrios, Gonsalves has quickly emerged as the Twins most important pitching prospect. Pairing him in the big league rotation with other young arms is a must. He dominated the Florida State League across 11 starts, and then was even better for Double-A Chattanooga. Gonsalves is a lefty with strikeout stuff, and is he can continue to hone is his command, he has a very high ceiling. Just 22 years old, he could get to the big leagues in 2017, and making himself a fixture for plenty of years to come seems like a good bet. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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The Major League Baseball Postseason is in full swing and we're quickly approaching what could be a very entertaining World Series. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins season has long been over, and any hopes of the Postseason were dashed nearly from the get go. That all being said, Derek Falvey coming in as President of Baseball Operations provides the organization with plenty of opportunity for change. When you've lost as much as the Twins have of late, there's plenty of areas that require taking a look at how you can improve. If I'm prioritizing what areas may be needing the most attention, this is my laundry list: Establish the youth Last season, the Twins went into the year asking a young Miguel Sano to go play right field. He's a 250 plus pound man that destroys baseballs and attempts to play third base in between. Asking him to go roam the outfield was always going to be an uphill battle, but it was also put preference on established veterans over the youth movement that this organization is currently undergoing. Players like Sano, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios, and a handful of others need to become the backbone of this organization. Getting them ready mentally over the winter is a must. Coming into Spring Training, Minnesota needs to be in a place where the future of the organization is capable of producing, and knowing they will be relied upon to do so. Leave pitchers on the market After 2016, it's pretty obvious that the Twins biggest problem remains pitching. They were dead last in virtually every starting pitching category, and they weren't far behind when it came to relievers as well. That's an area they absolutely need to improve, but doing so by signing more pitching is not at all a good plan. Entering Spring Training, Minnesota has something like eight or nine realistic options for their rotation. While all of them don't have the same ceiling, there's no reason to go spend on a poor free agent class to try and minimally upgrade the group as a whole. Falvey and Co. need to find out what Trevor May looks like back in the rotation, a full year of Berrios is, and even consider Adalberto Mejia. Pushing guys like that further down the pecking order for some retread veterans is silly at best. Make a smart Dozier decision Since maybe Johan Santana, the Minnesota Twins have not been presented with such a monumental trade decision. Brian Dozier is coming off the best season in his career, and the best season ever by a Twins second basemen. He was one of the lone bright spots on the club this year, and he may very well be the best player they have for 2017 as well. If you're going to trade Dozier, you absolutely need to get something substantial in return. I have a hard time believing that the Twins find a partner willing to give them a number one pitcher back. A top prospect is nice, but I think they ask should be even higher than that. The Twins didn't buy into Dozier's free agency years, and he's under contract until his age 31 season (2018). At this point, he may be a late bloomer and that's something the Twins should make sure they're aware of. I don't know that Minnesota is a contender while Dozier is in his prime, but giving him up and not getting something substantial in return isn't a good idea either. Rework the 40 man roster At the end of the 2016 season, the Twins were wrapping up what was nothing short of a terrible year. This collection hadn't done anything of substance all season, and then when presented an opportunity to get youth involved, the front office went with Andrew Albers and Logan Schafer. Adding warm bodies to the 40 man roster absolutely needs to stop. Coming into 2017, the Twins should have no less than 10 open spots on their 40 man. This team and organization can't turn a corner while continuing to bring questionable big leaguers to Target Field. There's major league ready talent on the farm, and there's more astute non-roster decisions that can be made as well. Stop wasting 40 man spots, it's something that has gone on far too long. Falvey establish his presence Whether it be new Baseball Ops man Falvey, or whoever he hires as his General Manager, the Twins new front office needs to assert themselves this winter. Make some real decisions on players like Trevor Plouffe, Kennys Vargas, and Michael Tonkin. Minnesota has a handful of players that are out of options or non-tender candidates. If you can get anything for them before simply DFA'ing them, try and do so. A year ago, Oswaldo Arcia was simply cut by the Twins. He has gone on to be nothing of consequence thus far, but if Minnesota could have gotten any sort of return, and used the roster spot out of the gate elsewhere, they should have. I'm not convinced Vargas is a big leaguer, and it appears Trevor Plouffe is without a spot on this club. Do what you can to move them before cutting bait, and if you do the latter, get it done without turning it into a drug out process. At this point, expectations for the Minnesota Twins in 2017 should be pretty low. This club is coming off a franchise worst record, and there's going to be more growing pains ahead. The offense should be fine going forward, but reworking the entire organization is going to take some time. Positioning things well over the winter is a good start though, and will only help to get the ball rolling. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Is Paul Molitor Defensible For The Twins?
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
This is the biggest point. -
After 103 losses, a franchise worst for the Minnesota Twins, the organization has cleaned house. Well, they have almost cleaned house. Derek Falvey has been brought in as the new Head of Baseball Operations, a new General Manager will be appointed, and Minnesota will look to turn the page on the debacle that was 2016. Owner Jim Pohlad has stated that his manager, Paul Molitor will return in 2017. At this point, is that comment, or the manager himself defensible? The short answer is no, and the longer answer, well that's heck no. Here's the deal, Paul Molitor was a really great baseball player. He's a Hall of Famer with more than 3,000 hits. When at the plate, there was next to no one that could do it better than Molitor could. Unfortunately as a manager, the same level of success hasn't been achieved. 2015 saw the Twins beat all statistical projections to just narrowly miss the playoffs. They were playing well above their heads, and every number suggested regression. Because they didn't prepare much for it, that regression came and popped the Twins, as well as Molitor, right in the mouth this past season. While the deck was already stacked against them, Molitor made a habit of poor lineup decisions, a "not my problem" approach with struggling young prospects, and very little to hang his hat on. At this point, the greatest defense to keep Molitor around is that he's a hometown guy, and is as much a part of the Twins organization as anyone. In a professional league that should be about winning and advancing, those things shouldn't be enough to save someone's job. Now, to be fair, the impact that a manager has in the big leagues is marginal at best. The difference between the best and worst managers is significant, but between two good, or two bad managers is splitting hairs. Joe Maddon gets significantly more out of his players than Paul Molitor does, but he;s not that significantly more impressive than say Terry Francona or Dusty Baker. With that in mind, the Twins have actionable areas in which they should be focusing on when it comes to the man that will lead their 25 man roster. Considering the youth that needs to be the backbone of the Twins future, utilizing, relating too, and developing that talent is an absolute must. When a young guy struggles, the first course of action cannot be to simply send them back to the farm and make them someone else's problem. Far too often in 2016, Molitor seemed too far removed from his youngsters to squeeze anything extra out of them. More often than not, they were poorly positioned in the lineup, and then the developmental time in between falling by the wayside only compounded matters. So, if the Twins are going to move on from Molitor, the focus should be in finding a personality that can handle the key areas differently. It's fair to wonder if owner Jim Pohlad will back off of his comments suggesting Molitor be guaranteed 2017. A 32 year old Falvey could suggest the change be made, but that might be punching above his weight class coming out of the gate. At the end of the day though, a non-baseball man like Pohald should focus on the business, and swallow his baseball comments that come from a place without much real knowledge. Assuming that the Twins do actually clean house, and go with a new manager, there's a pair of possibilities I like a lot. Both Alex Cora and Gabe Kapler seem like they have the potential to be the next big thing among managerial ranks. Rather than simply recycling names that have held the position around the big leagues, Minnesota could go to a fresh perspective as they have done in the front office. Both Cora and Kapler are former players. Cora has the background to relate to Latin players, while Kapler is widely regarded as one of the smartest people in the game. Kepler was considered for the Dodgers managerial role until Dave Roberts was handed the position, and there's more than a few teams that would do well to be in on Cora. Given each of their backgrounds, and the way in which they are positioned in relation to the Twins needs, either could be a fit. Outside of that group, Sandy Alomar Jr. may make sense, and really even Doug Mientkiewicz could fit the bill. With Dougie Baseball, the biggest detractor is his familiarity with Minnesota. The Twins have often hired from within, and it's been to a fault at times. In this situation, that probably works against the Double-A manager. If Molitor sticks around, and is then let go mid-season, I'd love to see Mientkiewicz get an interim opportunity the rest of the way, if they are going to make a change prior to 2017 though, I'd prefer they look elsewhere. At the end of the day, your list of reasons why the Twins should keep Paul Molitor includes him being from the same state, and false hope that 2015 masked. If that isn't damning enough for Jim Pohlad, it's something Derek Falvey would be well off to highlight for him. Regardless, Molitor has become indefensible for the Twins, and really, there's better candidates out there when it comes to fulfilling the Twins immediate needs. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Season In Review: 2016 By The Numbers
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
A lot of them were games where the lead was lost right away, but with 103 losses, you'll lose in a multitude of different ways. -
With the dust now settled, the 2016 Major League Baseball season has come to a close. The Minnesota Twins mercifully can close the chapter on what was a franchise worst record, but focus on making improvements in the year ahead. Before the Postseason kicks off, I want to take a look back at the good, bad, and ugly that is the numerical values for Minnesota in 2016. Brian Dozier launched 42 homers for the Twins in 2016. That total was the highest mark for a Twins hitter since Harmon Killebrew hit 49 in 1969. He finished with 99 RBI, which allows Josh Willingham to remain the last Minnesota batter with 100 or more in a season. Ervin Santana finished with a 3.38 ERA across his 30 starts this season. That's the best mark for a Twins pitcher since Scott Baker owned a 3.14 ERA in 2011. Over the course of the season, only 12 times did the Twins not turn a loss into a streak of at least two consecutive losses. Through 162 games, the Twins trailed in 139 of them. In 86% of the games they played this season, Minnesota was losing at some point. Against the AL Central, Minnesota went 24-52 and owned a -110 run differential. Byron Buxton had just a .714 OPS on the year, but since his recall in September, he pushed that mark to 1.011 (over 29 G 101 at bats) With 178, Miguel Sano set the Twins single season strikeout record. He overtook Brian Dozier's mark of 148 from 2015. After striking out 100 plus times for the first time in his career last season, Joe Mauer totaled 93 strikeouts this season. That was his lowest total since the 2013 season. In 2014, Phil Hughes set an all time MLB record for K/BB ratio in a single season (11.63). This year, Clayton Kershaw tallied a 15.6 K/BB but didn't pitch enough innings to qualify, so Hughes' mark still stands. At the end of the season, there was significantly more bad than good for the Twins. That's probably to be expected when you lose 103 games. If the Twins can take the few things that are worth building upon, and carry them into 2017, a clean slate for the year ahead remains the biggest positive for the future. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Revisiting The Twins Swaps In 16
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Admittedly I'm splitting hairs here, but I'll call him capable. He's a 4 maybe 3 starter. If the Twins can get their affairs in order, yeah, he's fine. -
During the 2016 season, it was apparent nearly from the get go that the Minnesota Twins would need to be sellers. Now sure, that's a bit unfair, but an 0-9 start never got better, and now sitting at over 100 losses, this team struggled in all facets of the game. The organization did make a couple of swaps that likely had the future in mind though, so how do they look now? Remember, during the middle of the year, long time General Manager Terry Ryan was relieved of his duties. Assistant GM Rob Antony stepped in and was the head honcho in the front office through both the non-waiver and waiver trade deadlines. Whether new boss Derek Falvey would've approved of these moves or not is a moot point, and whether they were worth of praise for Antony is moot as well. At this point, we're far enough out from the moves themselves to see how things have gone since. Move 1: Eduardo Nunez traded to San Francisco for Adalberto Mejia If there's ever been a fraud of an All Star, it was Eduardo Nunez for the Twins in 2016. Owner of a career .696 OPS while being a glorified utility man/backup, Nunez broke out in 91 games with the Twins. He was still lackluster defensively, but his .764 OPS was a career best. He went to San Diego to represent Minnesota at the mid-summer classic, and then somehow was turned into a top 100 prospect. Since going to San Francisco, Nunez has cooled some, but still owns a .418 OPS. Nunez has helped to spell the Giants on the left side of the infield, and has gotten to be a part of a playoff race. Minnesota received Adalberto Mejia in return, which seemed like a good haul for Nunez. Mejia made four starts for Triple-A Rochester posting a 3.76 ERA. He made his MLB debut for Minnesota as well, working 2.1 IP of relief. Mejia will likely compete for a spot in the starting rotation to begin 2017, but is probably destined to begin the year at Triple-A. He's 23 and not a top of the rotation arm, but in an organization starved for pitching, he should help at the big league level soon. Move 2: Fernando Abad traded to Boston Red Sox for Pat Light Over the course of his career, Terry Ryan had a solid record of non-roster guys that made an impact for the big league club. Blaine Boyer fits that bill in 2015, and it's absolutely what Abad was in 2016. In 34.0 IP for Minnesota, Abad posted a 2.65 ERA. He walked nearly four per nine, but that's been something he's struggled with for the past two seasons. The Twins believed he was tipping his pitches, worked it out, and got 39 games of production out of him. Since having gone to Boston, Abad has blown up to the tune of a 6.39 ERA and has been virtually untrustworthy in relief. For the Twins, Pat Light has always been a guy that can throw hard. Light's biggest problem has always been his ability to throw strikes and have command in the zone. He pitched seven innings for Triple-A Rochester after the trade and posted a 2.57 ERA along with a 2.6 BB/9. In the 12.1 IP for Minnesota through, he owns a 10.22 ERA, 9.5 K/9, and a terrible 10.9 BB/9. At 25, Light needs to hone in his command sooner rather than later. He was acquired for nothing (being that Abad was a non-roster guy), but should factor into the Twins pen in 2017 if he can get out of his own way. Move 3: Ricky Nolasco and Alex Meyer traded to Los Angeles Angels for Hector Santiago and Alan Busenitz Rounding out the Twins trades this year was the one that was a surprise, and met with far more excitement than it should've been. I was immediately critical of Minnesota giving up on Meyer simply to shed Nolasco's salary, but that's absolutely what happened. Ryan failed big time in overextending himself with a big contract on a mediocre starter when he signed Nolasco. In his time with the Twins, Nolasco was significantly more bad than he was good. Since going to the Angels though, he's made 11 starts to the tune of a 3.21 ERA and a 1.8 BB/9. Between getting out of Minnesota and having a better defense behind him, Nolasco has found success. If there's a silver lining in Meyer moving on, it's that he deserved it. A 26 year old that the Twins failed to develop, and Paul Molitor washed his hands of, Meyer needed a change of scenery. Since joining the Angels, they got him back on the mound (Minnesota had him not pitching for over a month due to a shoulder injury that was never given an MRI), and up to the big leagues. In four starts with Los Angeles, Meyer owns a 4.58 ERA and 9.7 K/9. His 6.1 BB/9 are still a problem, but one that the Angels seem they'll work through him with. The Twins return in the whole thing, aside from the salary relief from Nolasco, comes in the form of Hector Santiago. Minnesota is still paying a portion of Nolasco's deal in 2017, but they'll have the option to tender Santiago. Arbitration eligible after making $5 million this season, Santiago has made 10 starts for the Twins. He owns a 6.22 ERA along with a 5.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Since coming over from the Angels, Santiago has been worse across the board. He probably will be around, and in the 2017 starting rotation, but expecting him to be reliable is probably a fool's errand unless the coaching staff can get more out of him. Busenitz gets lost in this deal as merely a throw in. He's a 25 year old that reached Triple-A this season. For the Twins, he pitched in 7.2 innings at Rochester while owning a 3.52 ERA. Busenitz has pumped strikeouts right around eight per nine thus far in his career, and he's a middle relief option if and when he makes it to the big leagues. As a whole, the Twins can look back at their exchanges this season and see a slam dunk in the Nunez deal, a mediocre flip in the Abad swap, and a less than thrilling return with the Nolasco and Meyer move. When you're losing, the goal is to flip veterans to stockpile assets, but unfortunately the Twins didn't have anything to give up. In the few exchanges they did make, there was really only one that can be looked back upon as something of value going forward. It's unfortunate, but 2016's swaps could end up being evaluated upon how much move three blows up in Minnesota's face. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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With just a week of games left for the Minnesota Twins this season, Paul Molitor's club has already eclipsed the 100 loss mark. This group has gone from playoff contenders a year ago, to seemingly lost without a purpose this September. If you are trying to define a lost season as it relates to a pro sports franchise, the 2016 Twins are it. This year, the Twins had playoff hopes coming into the campaign. While those in Minnesota were likely higher on the club than that of national pundits, this team wasn't expected to flop. Sure, a season ago the club was fueled by things going their way, and a good amount of luck, but it all breaking down at once was something no one expected. As the Twins hit the 100 loss mark with a series losing defeat by the Seattle Mariners, it's worth wondering what exactly the Twins accomplished this season. The two most notable developments are arguably the ridiculous year that second basemen Brian Dozier is having, and the firing of General Manager Terry Ryan. For Dozier, his homer output has been among the best in all of baseball, and his ability to pull the ball over the fence has increased his average by over .30 points. By all measures, Dozier's incredible year has positioned him among the best second basemen in the game, and has presented the Twins with an interesting decision this offseason. The next head honcho for Minnesota will have to decide whether to hang onto Dozier, or flip him for something that is deemed as assets that can be utilized in the future. On the Ryan front, Minnesota did something incredibly right for the direction of their franchise going forward. Terry Ryan had long become someone that wasn't going to right the ship for Minnesota and a change was needed. While the organization did make the right move, Jim Pohlad likely was force fed his hand as he watched attendance plummet greatly. Outside of those two developments however, it's really hard to take a step back and see anything the Twins really learned. Sure, Taylor Rogers looks for real, and Byron Buxton has been great since his recall. Long term though, Minnesota may still have some questions about Jorge Polanco at shortstop, and internal relief options may present more questions than answers. We still don't know what Adam Brett Walker or Daniel Palka look like as big leaguers, and there's no reason to believe that a group of five starters are set in stone to begin the 2017 season. As the season has worn on, more often than not, Paul Molitor has made puzzling decisions in regards to both youth as well as his lineups on a daily basis. The Twins seem somewhat stuck between placeholders and future growth, while failing to commit wholeheartedly to either. When a team loses as many games as the Twins have this season, there's obviously going to be more negatives than positives. What generally is desirable though, is a gameplan for future growth and a showing of some executable areas for improvement. Right now, it's hard to take a step back and see either of those realities playing out for the Twins. A new Head of Baseball Operations and a General Manager are going to make a difference for the Twins, but there's little reason to believe that 2017 won't feel like completely starting from scratch. For a fan base and a franchise that has preached rebuilding, the reality is that the execution of that rebuild might just now be starting to take place. The Twins will hopefully get back to relevance, but 2016 doesn't give many reasons to suggest we're close to seeing that take place. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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As the 2016 Major League Baseball season comes to a close, award season begins to rear its head. While it's been a tough slate for the hometown Minnesota Twins, the year has produced plenty of great performances. Being a member of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America as well as the Vets Committee, I have the privilege of turning in a ballot for Season Awards each year. For 2016, IBWAA president has set a cut off date of October 2 for ballots to be place. With most teams having right around 10 games left in the regular season, my ballot was filed to IBWAA Founding Director Howard Cole recently. As I have done every year, my vote is now going to be made public. The IBWAA votes on ten different awards (five for each League). Below are the full results of my selections for each award. Feel free to engage in discussion and share your thoughts in regards to my votes in the comment section below. American League MVP Mike Trout Mookie Betts Jose Altuve Josh Donaldson Brian Dozier Manny Machado Adrian Beltre Dustin Pedroia Adam Eaton Kyle Seager American League Cy Young Masahiro Tanaka Rick Porcello Chris Sale Aaron Sanchez Corey Kluber American League Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer Gary Sanchez Tyler Naquin American League Manager of the Year Terry Francona Jeff Banister John Farrell American League Reliever of the Year Zach Britton Andrew Miller Edwin Diaz National League MVP Kris Bryant Corey Seager Daniel Murphy Freddie Freeman Nolan Arenado Anthony Rizzo Joey Votto Christian Yelich Justin Turner Paul Goldschmidt National League Cy Young Noah Syndergaard Clayton Kershaw Kyle Hendricks Madison Bumgarner Jon Lester National League Rookie of the Year Corey Seager Trea Turner Trevor Story National League Manager of the Year Joe Maddon Dusty Baker Brian Roberts National League Reliever of the Year Seung Hwan Oh Kenley Jansen Mark Melancon For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Bottom Line Brings Twins Changes
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
I don't think Ryan will be replaced by anyone but a solid duo. The fact the Twins are bringing in both a baseball head and a GM is a good thing. That said, nether Pohlad nor St. Peter know enough about baseball to be having any real input on the team. Stick to the business and hire the rest out -
The Minnesota Twins have just over a week's worth of baseball games left in 2016. As the season draws to a close, Paul Molitor's troops are certain to lose 100 games, and they may end up posting the worst record in team history. Although we've seen Jim Pohlad move on from long time General Manager Terry Ryan this season, the reality is that it's the bank account that reigns supreme. Here's what we know right now. In the middle of the summer, the Twins gave Terry Ryan his walking papers. They were long overdue, and they should be considered performance related first and foremost. For far too long, his approach had become outdated and the results hadn't been fruitful. After firing his head man, Pohlad quickly went on record to suggest that Manager Paul Molitor would remain in 2017 regardless. At that point, we were quickly reminded that Pohlad's expertise is solely rooted in dollars and cents. He's not a baseball man, Molitor isn't worthy of a vote of confidence, and the chips falling where they may still means that Pohlad's scope ends with the fans walking through the gates. With six home games left, the Twins have a recorded attendance number of 1,831,020 fans. That boils down to roughly 24,400 fans per game. At capacity, Target Field tops out at 39,504 fans per game. That's a figure that the Twins haven't seen often at all this season. In reality, the stretch run has consisted of roughly 14,000 season tickets being accounted for every night, while the in game crowd likely falls somewhere below 10,000 people. You can probably look at the numbers above and make the educated conclusion that the Twins aren't proud of those results. Target Field is a gorgeous venue, and baseball during a Minnesota summer and fall are some of the best ways to spend your time. What those numbers don't show on their own however, is a reality that has the current Twins club being less supported than any team in recent memory. Since Target Field opened in 2010, the Twins have never had less than 2.2 million fans over the course of a season. That number came last year, when the Twins narrowly missed the playoffs after four straight 90 loss seasons. The first two years at their new digs saw the Twins draw over 3 million fans per year, and the third year brought in over 2.75 million. Minnesota's number for 2016 though, won't compare to anything Target Field has seen before. When the dust settles on the year, the Twins will likely be right around 1.9 million for a final attendance figure. You'd have to go back to 2001 at the H.H.H. Metrodome to find a Twins team that drew that few fans over the course of an 81 game home slate. The 2001 Twins were coming off of four straight 90 loss seasons, but boosted their attendance to 1.7 million (after not topping 1.43 million since 1993) while winning 85 games and finishing second in the AL Central that year. To Pohlad, and Team President Dave St. Peter, the fact that this collection of Minnesota Twins will draw the smallest crowd since 2001 is a problem. It's a problem because it doesn't even sniff previous Target Field attendance numbers, and it gets beat by the last eight seasons at the Metrodome (which was an absolute dump). The honeymoon phase with Target Field appears to be over, and expecting to draw simply because of the atmosphere is no longer a realistic proposition. Over the winter, Pohlad and his business partners can roll out as many new food options, patios, and perks as they so choose, but without a commitment to a competitive product with a purpose on the field, the fans dollar will continue to speak. It's a great thing that the organization has decided to go in a different direction than the one Ryan was treading water in, but nothing forced them to make that decision more than the financial implications that this season presented. While wins and losses highly dictate the turnout, it's ultimately the turnout that continues to control operations. As you make your last trips to Target Field in 2016, be glad that it's the paltry crowds that have forced change, and hope that change brings the people back. A new Baseball Operations President and General Manager will be tasked with righting the ship, and if they succeed, the Minnesota Twins will once again run like a well oiled machine. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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The 2014 Major League Baseball season brought Phil Hughes to the Minnesota Twins. He was signed, and then extended, on a free agent contract and ended up being among consideration for the AL Cy Young award. The former Yankees first round pick had an incredible debut with the Twins, and in the process, set a record that didn't get much notoriety. As has always been the case, Phil Hughes is a guy that simply does not walk many batters. He's never been a real serious strikeout threat, and it's probably fair to suggest Hughes hasn't been the player that Yankees hoped they would get from a first round starter. That said, he's more than capable of holding down a spot in the middle of a big league rotation, and he can make getting professional hitters out look routine. During 2014, Hughes struck out batters, while walking so few, at a truly incredible pace. He eventually finished with an 11.63 strikeout to walk ratio, which would go down as the single greatest mark over the course of a season in Major League history. Hughes joined Bret Saberhagen as the only pitchers ever to post a strikeout to walk ratio of 11.0 or greater. Since 1884, only four pitchers have ever had a strikeout to walk ratio of 10.0 or higher. Jim Whitney accomplished the feat in 1884 for the Boston Beaneaters. Saberhagen joined him in 1994 while pitching for the Mets, and Cliff Lee rounded out the trio in 2010 as he split time between the Mariners and Rangers. This all now becomes relevant again though because the record which Hughes set in 2014, one that broke Saberhagen's 20 year old mark, could fall this season. As September baseball winds down, Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw currently owns a mark that would smash Hughes' number into oblivion. With a 17.22 strikeout to walk ratio through 18 starts, Kershaw would top the Twins pitcher by nearly six strikeouts per walk. The one caveat to the scenario is whether or not Kershaw pitches enough to become qualified. A big talker as the summer wound down, Kershaw was placed on the disabled list with injury issues. There were concerns as to whether or not he would pitch again this season, and if he did, what kind of effectiveness he would have. Now removed from the disabled list, Kershaw has made two starts in September in which he's owned a 2.25 ERA and a 10/0 K/BB across 8.0 IP. Pitching today, Kershaw should make three more starts for the Dodgers yet this season. That would give him 21 on the year, and somewhere in the realm of 140.0+ IP. Should he reach the floor to qualify, his mark will almost assuredly unseat that of Hughes. While Kershaw's number is significantly higher than the mark the Twins 2014 ace put up, it's impressive to see just how the two of the compare as well. Clayton Kershaw is one of the game's best at striking batters out, and that's witnessed by his 10.8 K/9. In just 129.0 IP, he has 155 strikeouts. For comparison, Hughes pitched 209.2 innings during 2014 while fanning just 186 batters. When looking at the walks, it's Hughes that may get the nod. In over 200 innings during 2014, he issued just 16 free passes. Kershaw has been stingy as well, but has given up nine walks in 129 innings thus far in 2016. Regardless of how everything shakes out, the efficiency displayed by Hughes in 2014 and Kershaw this season is something to truly marvel. The former did it but limiting the damage he inflicted upon himself, and the latter has been a master of inflicting damage upon opposing hitters. Using history as a guide, Hughes and Kershaw have shown us something we may not see again for quite some time. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Heading into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins shocked the sport as they won the bid for Korean Baseball Organization slugger Byungho Park. The most fearsome hitter in the league was headed to a team in Minnesota that was expected to hit a lot of home runs. While his position only complicated things on the Twins roster, his power potential remained certain. As the story has unfolded, the results couldn't be more disheartening. That said, maybe there's more to it? Prior to the 2016 season, Park was signed by the Twins to a four-year, $12 million contract. Add in the additional money required to negotiate with him, and Minnesota chipped in a healthy sum for the Korean slugger. What they got in return was 62 games at the MLB level with a .191/.275/.409 slash line. Park turned in just 12 homers and had 10 other extra base hits (nine doubles, one triple), with 80 strikeouts and 21 walks. In watching Park, it was pretty apparent that his swing and miss tendencies from Korea only grew here in the big leagues. Having owned a 161/78 K/BB with Nexen in 2015, the expectation is that he would strike out plenty this season. The understanding though, was that the power would overshadow the negatives. By the percentages, Park's power showed up quite often when hitting a fly ball. Over one-fifth of the batted balls he launched in the air left the yard. His hard hit percentage wads right at 37% with a swinging strike rate that rested at 15%. A contract percentage of 67.4% leaves something to be desired, but isn't all that uncommon for a home run or bust type hitter. Putting it in the simplest terms though, a guy that nearly won his 3rd MVP in the last four years for the KBO didn't acclimate well to the big leagues. His back to back 50 home run seasons seemed like a mirage, and the power production that was supposed to dwarf the strikeouts was only visible in short bursts. What's interesting though, is that Park appears to be alone. Prior to the 2016 season, four Koreans (including Park) were signed to big league deals. Joining the Twins power bat was Dae-ho Lee (Mariners), Seung-hwan Oh (Cardinals), and Hyun Soo Kim (Orioles). The unfortunate reality for Park is that three inferior players to himself, have seen much more success in the early going. For the Mariners, Lee was the only Korean to sign a deal that included the ability to send him to the minors. He spent just seven games in Tacoma (late in the year), and has batted .261/.323/.445 in 96 games at the big league level. Lee's 14 homers and 49 RBI have been a solid source of run production as well. Arguably the best season of the Koreans this year has come from Oh of the Cardinals. At 34 years old, he's hardly a typical rookie, but on a one-year $2.5 million deal, he's been an absolute steal. In 70 games (72.1 IP) with St. Louis, he owns a 1.87 ERA and a dazzling 97/18 K/BB ratio. Having moved into the closer role and racking up 17 saves, Oh is going to be in the running for the NL Rookie of the Year award. Rounding out the group is Kim, who is probably the most interesting story of the bunch. After signing a two-year, $7 million deal with the Orioles, a bad spring training had the club wanting to ship him to Triple-A. Tensions nearly got to the point of an all out release, but cooler heads prevailed. Spending the entirety of the season at the MLB level, Kim has played in 81 games and owns a .308/.389/.421 slash line. He's not the flashy player at the plate, but with 16 doubles to his credit, he's more than carried his weight. Obviously, the influx of KBO players into baseball follows the emergence of Jung Ho Kang's breakout a year ago. Byungho Park's best friend slashed .287/.355/.461 and launched 15 homers en route to a 3rd place NL Rookie of the Year finish in 2015. He, along with the three aforementioned players, have established that a transition from the KBO to MLB is more than doable. So, what gives for Park? At the end of the day, I think that there's probably a bit more about Park's wrist than what he wanted to let on. He underwent surgery in August and effectively ended his first big league season. While he came with mammoth expectations, his power was sapped even further due to his health. Combine that with an adjustment period both on the field and off (the Twins didn't even begin spelling his name as he asked until halfway through the summer), and you end up with less than ideal results. Going into 2017, there should be heightened expectations that Park is able to come in and contribute. He's likely never going to be the MVP type player he was in Korea, but absolutely should be able to be a vital member of the Twins 25 man roster. Lesser players from the KBO have shown success is attainable in the big leagues, and a healthy wrist could be the key that unlocks the next level for Park. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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At this point in the season, there's enough doom and gloom surrounding a Twins team with over 90 losses to go around. Arguably the most perfect way to overlook all of that is simply by understanding just how impressive the season Brian Dozier is currently having is. Having gone from non-prospect to elite slugger, Dozier is rewriting the record books in 2016. Rather than go into any further analysis, or try and wrap my head around exactly what Dozier is doing this season, let's let the numbers talk for themselves. That's it, no meat and potatoes here. Just feast your eyes on the numbers below and look in awe as Brian Dozier continues to put up one of the best seasons in Major League Baseball by a second basemen ever. Brian Dozier sits at 38 homers while playing second base in 2016. That is second most (behind Alfonso Soriano's 39) all-time in the American League, and trails Rogers Hornsby's 42 for the 1922 Cardinals overall. In 139 games during 2016, Dozier has hit 40 homers. He has never eclipsed 28 in a single season previously (157 G in 2015), and hit just 16 homers in 365 MiLB contests. Since returning to the lineup (following a two-game benching) on May 25, 2016 Brian Dozier is slashing .307/.371/.671 and has posted a career best .277/.348/.574 line on the season. Brian Dozier's 40 homers are second in all of baseball, trailing Baltimore's Mark Trumbo by just one long ball. On the season, Dozier owns a .297 ISO (measurement of a hitter's raw power). That mark is second best in all of baseball trailing only Boston's David Ortiz (.311) To date, Dozier has been worth 5.7 fWAR for the Twins. That mark is easily his highest career fWAR and is good enough to make him the 9th most valuable player in all of baseball (7th in the American League). Of his 40 homers, 20 of them have gone more than 400 feet. By Fangraphs estimation of fWAR converted to dollars, Brian Dozier has been worth $45.9 million to the Twins this season. He is being paid $3 million. I'll leave you with this image of Brian Dozier's home run spray chart for 2016.
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If you're still following along with the Twins, you've nearly made it through the 2016 Major League Baseball season. Just 19 games remain, and Minnesota needs to win 10 of them to avoid 100 losses for just the second time in franchise history, and first since 1982. To be sure, a year full of losing is far from fun, but does a top pick in the upcoming draft make it feel any less gloomy? Baseball is a different beast than basketball and football. While the top pick in the draft holds immense value, it generally isn't realized at the top level for at least a year or two, and the draft itself doesn't take place until well into the next season. For Minnesota, plenty will change by the time June 2017 comes around. With Terry Ryan fired midway through the current 162 game schedule, Jim Pohlad and Dave St. Peter are in the process of finding a replacement head honcho (or, as we've learned, a duo). The Twins will have a new Head of Baseball Operations, as well as a new General Manager by the time the 2017 Major League Baseball Amateur Draft rolls around. Paul Molitor may very well be gone, and the hope would be that the on field product shows significantly better than it has this season. For Minnesota, 2016 was another year of the prospect. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and even Byungho Park were supposed to lead this group. Instead, their were injuries, failed expectations, and regression for what can be described as the Twins future. Although the offense was expected to carry this club, it was nowhere to be seen out of the gate. Now with the writing already on the wall, the only thing left for the Twins to do is finish. It's largely understood what has all taken place for Paul Molitor's club this season. What's next is what comes as a result of the final standings. If the year were to end today, that would include the Twins drafting first overall next June. The Braves currently are two games clear of the Twins when it comes to record. I'm not sure there's a determination to "tank" as there may be in other sports, but Minnesota could have their choice if things stand pat. By the looks of most national experts, there doesn't appear to be a consensus top pick in the upcoming draft. Undoubtedly there's a few names that will rise to the top, but all will have their detractors (however slight they may be). Unlike in sports such as basketball or football, it's hard to suggest that a first overall pick gives something back to such a horrendous season. Mentioned on the broadcast during the recent Cubs and Astros series, you can bet that Houston wishes they would've selected Kris Bryant over Mark Appel with their recent first overall pick. The stories of the big miss are many, and the sure thing first selection are few and far between. When it comes down to it, the Twins won't have much to hang their hats on as the 2016 dust settles. The first overall pick is definitely an exciting and welcomed consolation prize, but it will be in the hiring of front office executives, and the retooling of the organization that the true forward progress is felt. Reality probably suggests that the Twins did this to themselves. They stuck by Terry Ryan and his country club ways for a little bit too long, and it has the year ending with some significant emptiness. His parting gift will likely end up being a top three draft pick, but if Minnesota is looking to hang their hats on something, expecting it to be a relative unknown is probably not a good proposition. When June rolls around, the first overall pick will have plenty of merit attached to it, but how much excitement it generates will largely be determined by who the Twins put in charge of making those decisions. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Today, the New York Mets became the team to sign former Florida Gators and NFL quarterback Tim Tebow to a minor league contract. The assumption is that he'll head to either the instructional league or the Arizona Fall League. From essentially the news of a Tebow tryout broke, there have been feelings on both sides of the fence. When considering my stance, I simply can't get over the ridiculousness of the message both the Mets and professional baseball is sending. As of today, Tim Tebow is a 29 year old that has not played organized baseball since he was a well rounded athlete at Neese High School. He's played since at The Swamp, and in big time NFL stadiums. He's been a quarterback, and now a TV Analyst. At no point in over ten years has he ever been a baseball player, until now. Let's address a couple of the rebuttals I've seen on the interwebs this far. No, I don't dislike Tim Tebow. In fact, I believe he's a better NFL quarterback than at least a handful of current backups, and I'd personally rather see him start than one NFL quarterback. Whether you agree or not is irrelevant, the point is that I don't have a vengeance against the man at all. In fact, I think he's been blackballed from the sport he fits in simply because of the media frenzy that baseball is welcoming. Secondly, there's this notion that it's just a minor league signing and that excuses any ill-advised decisions because they are (for the majority) all low risk crapshoots. Sure, there's a ton of players in minor league baseball, and a very minute amount that will ever reach the big leagues. Tebow though, was graded above average only in speed and raw power. When considering how fast you can run, or how far you can hit a meatball, teams don't typically line up to offer contracts to those that are received warmly. I'd make the argument that hitting a baseball is quite possibly the most difficult athletic feat there is. A small round object is being thrown towards you at speeds of nearly 100 mph and you are tasked to make a split second decision to swing, and make contact, with a small round bat. It's not for the faint of heart, and those that are projected to develop into being capable of competing at the highest level have significant signs in their corner. Understanding where Tebow is on his developmental curve, and the fact that he's at essentially the age a player typically reaches their prime, expecting him to progress substantially is a fool's errand. A below average thrower, hitter, and fielder, investing into him as a project could be better served with a player that may actually allow you to reap dividends. It's not at all fair for me to suggest that the New York Mets are signing Tim Tebow simply as a publicity stunt. Obviously Tebow doesn't need the media attention, but it'd be silly not to assume that jersey sales and affiliate ticket sales wouldn't rise because of his presence. That all being said, GM Sandy Alderson isn't doing himself any favors to dispel the notion that's all this is either. Today he even went as far as wondering whether the Mets may have the former quarterback invited to big league spring training. At the end of the day, the grind through minor league baseball is far from an easy one. It takes countless hours devoted to a craft you already possess better than average skills for. It's not for the faint of heart, and more often than not, it ends in heartbreak. Tebow is attacking that reality by working out with the Mets that he will continue to serve ESPN as an SEC analyst on the weekends, and he may even be on an Arizona Fall League (usually reserved for an organization's top talents) roster. The showcase treatment for Tim Tebow as if he were some Cuban superstar was amazing in and of itself. The way the Mets have allowed it to progress from there has taken an even more interesting turn. Minor League baseball is professional baseball after all, and it shouldn't be used as a proving ground to try and expand decade old skills. Absolutely baseball has been looking for ways to drive new viewers to the sport, but making a mockery of itself in the form of some participation-trophy-esque fashion is a sad development. There will be minor leagues that likely welcome the opportunity to be starstruck by the former NFL player, but if really considering it at its core, I'd assume the idea of Tebow being given a free pass isn't thrilling. There's a place for this kind of thing in non-affiliated Indy Leagues, but let's stop pretending this is any more legitimate than the farce it should be seen as. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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If This Is It, Thank You Trevor
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Know them? No. Have spoken to his mom a handful of times, met her and Trevor at a game this summer. Met his dad and grandparents and talked as well. Brief, so don't know them. The brief interactions I have had over the past few years have all been great though, and observing from afar, he genuinely seems like a great person. -
Deciphering Dozier's Market
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
If Maeda is on the table, I do it. Yep -
Recently, Paul Molitor announced to the media tasked with covering the Minnesota Twins that Trevor Plouffe is dealing with both a strained oblique and an intercostal strain. The unfortunate reality is that he'll need at least a handful of weeks before feeling back to playing condition. With just 22 games left in the 2016 season for the Twins, Plouffe's 2016 could well be over. That also means it's worth wondering if we've seen the last of him as a Minnesota Twin. Signed to a one year, $7.25 million deal this season, Plouffe will be entering his final year of arbitration this winter. Given the expected salary increase, Minnesota will likely be on the hook for something like $10 million during 2017 if they so choose to tender him a contract. For a 31 year old third-basemen who's posted a .731 OPS since 2013, that's a tall ask. To complicate things further, the organization also has Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, and Byungho Park all vying for time in similar roles. The writing may be on the wall. It's very possible he's played his last game with the Twins. Now, with that all being said, it's a tenure that ends with a touch of sadness. Trevor Plouffe was a first round draft pick out of Crespi Carmelite High School way back in 2004. He rose through the farm system and made his major league debut on June 16, 2004. Starting at shortstop, then moving into more of a super utility role over his first three professional seasons, Plouffe found his footing at the hot corner in 2013. Showing up first in 2012, Plouffe established himself as a capable power slugger. His 24 long balls that season will go down as his most in a single year with the Twins. Over the course of his 723 games played for Minnesota, he has landed just four homers shy of the century mark. That total ties him for 18th in Minnesota Twins history. Never an All Star, Plouffe had plenty of seasons that qualify his as a quality piece on the Minnesota 25 man. Playing the bulk of his Minnesota career during seasons in which the club lost 90 or more games, Plouffe didn't get to experience the highs of the Twins division championship seasons. Most notably during his career however has been the intense work ethic that allowed him to transform his ability with the glove. I think Plouffe would be among the first to admit his time at shortstop in the big leagues, and initial venture over to third base, didn't go well. He posted a -12 DRS at short in 2011, and was -8 at the hot corner in 2012. From there however, he pushed his total to league average in 2013 and then was worth a career high 6 DRS in over 1,110 innings during 2014. Increasing both his DRS and UZR (6.7), it was in 2014 that Plouffe flashed the best of himself at third base. He became a legitimate asset at the hot corner and was incredibly far removed from the guy that needed to acclimate to a big league infield. Over the past couple of years, Plouffe has been bit by the injury bug and missed time here and there. When healthy however, he's shown he's capable of being a good big league hitter, and has a place somewhere in the middle of the Twins lineup. While the latest malady may sap the rest of 2016 from him, Plouffe went out on a high note slashing .302/.365/.523 with five homers over his last 21 games. Whatever happens from here, both the Twins and Trevor Plouffe are better off because of each other. The California kid grew up into a very solid big leaguer, and the Twins solidified the extreme left side of their infield thanks to the work ethic of a guy who was determined to give the club more. From here, whether in Minnesota or elsewhere, the only thing to say is thank you Trevor. Thanks for being a part of Twins Territory. Thanks for committing to your craft. Thanks for always giving Minnesota the best you had to give. Thanks to you, Olivia, and Teddy for calling Minnesota home. Whatever the next stop on your journey, you will always have a place in Twins Territory. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Deciphering Dozier's Market
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Eliminated all non-MLB ready prospects due to the fact that it would only extend Twins rebuild. Believe they should target MLB ready, controllable, assets. Also, don't think the Yankees are sending Sanchez anywhere. -
Deciphering Dozier's Market
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
I'd be good with adding Stewart to try and wrangle a Urias level guy, but I'm not a fan of dealing Dozier's for a true prospect. -
Brian Dozier is in the midst of an all time great season for a Major League second basemen. He's right on top of the 40 home run mark, and he's doing it with an increased batting average to boot. For the Minnesota Twins, Dozier has gone from fan-favorite to legitimate superstar. The next front office in Minnesota will be tasked with deciding whether or not the club makes him a part of a trade however. While the excitement Brian Dozier has provided has been nothing short of extraordinary, it's hard to overlook the state of things for Paul Molitor's club. They will almost assuredly lose 100 games, and one most nights, competing isn't even in the realm of possibility. As has been the case for some time, pitching remains the Twins biggest struggle. Through 139 games, Dozier owns a .278/.349/.580 slash line. His .929 OPS is nearly .200 points better than at any other point in his big league career. Minnesota's second basemen has 39 homers (sure to be eclipsed by the time you read this), and has 92 home runs. He's going to hit 40, and it's almost certain he'll drive in 100 runs. Minnesota hasn't had a player reach those plateaus since 1970 when the great Harmon Killebrew last did it. Considering his value will never be higher, it's been a popular suggestion that now be the time the Twins part with Dozier for pitching. The reality is that he'll likely not be a significant part of the next solid Twins run, and he's their best bet to return high level assets. The question is though, is there actually a deal that would make sense? Let's lay the groundwork for a deal here first. Dozier is owed $15 million over the next two years. While that's far from a substantial amount, the caveat is that the Twins did not buy into any of his free agent years when locking him up to the long term deal. He'll still hit the open market in 2019, albeit at the age of 32. When considering the Twins needs, any Dozier deal would need to be focused around pitching. Already chock full of position players and prospects, Minnesota needs top tier starting pitching (get in line right?). It should also be noted that I think the Twins would much prefer a young, controllable type that's already at the big league level as opposed to yet another prospect. Knowing what the Twins would need to make a deal, there's also got to be a market analysis that takes place. Dozier is not a designated hitter, and he's not capable of playing shortstop or third base. Now, and going forward, Dozier is a second basemen. In knowing that, finding teams that either have depreciating players, or those looking to add a final top tier place at second should be most highly considered. Immediately excluding teams with established quality second basemen, those with up and coming stars, and those too far out of relevancy to matter, here's some names I'm staring at: Chase Utley and Neil Walker. It's hard to consider players like Brandon Phillips and Scooter Gennett given the state of their respective teams. Both Utley and Walker could provide the Twins an opportunity though. With that in mind, let's explore. At 37 years old, Utley is at the end of his career. His one-year, $7 million deal is done in the coming months, and the Dodgers will have a decision to make. He could stick around as a rotation player, and he's been better than league average this season. Los Angeles doesn't rebuild though, and Dozier could provide an immediate upgrade in an already potent lineup. The problem is this equation is what exactly Minnesota lands in return. Clayton Kershaw is absolutely off limits, and Julio Urias might be as well. The Dodgers rotation leaves plenty to be desired and it's not exactly an area they can afford to part with pieces. If somehow Kenta Maeda comes into the equation, or Jose De Leon (a top prospect, but still) can be had, then maybe it's a spot worth pursuing. On the New York Mets front, a perceived pitching surplus is probably less realistic than once imagine. Neil Walker ended his 2016 with surgery, and he'll be on the open market again this offseason. Sure, New York could re-sign him after his best offensive season in the big leagues. The reality though is that he'll be 31 and coming off of surgery, making him a relative question mark. For the Mets, there are a few pitching options Minnesota could choose from. Not knowing which ones would be deemed untouchable, deGrom and Syndergaard would push the envelope the most. Both Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler are unknowns due to injury situations, and Steven Matz is the one I can't quite peg (while also noting he's injured). When looking at the Mets farm system, there's not a pitching prospect that moves the needle enough for me to be ok with the idea of going that route either. To summarize, I think the Twins find themselves in a situation where their current asset in Dozier, continues to be worth more to them than any other team. Asking for a one or two type pitcher is probably going to be a unenviable task given the possibilities, and settling for less due to the height of Dozier's stardom doesn't seem ideal either. There's definitely reason to believe that Dozier is a late-bloomer that could keep his production up into his mid-thirties. Right now though, he's signed for just two more years, hasn't quite found 162 games of consistency, and may have Minnesota looking for more than others are willing to feed them. Admittedly there's more options out there than the ones I was able to come up with. No matter who the next General Manager is, a task at the top of the list should be looking at what Dozier can net the Twins. At the end of the day though, if the ask is not in line with the get, Minnesota should probably be ok holding onto their newly born superstar as well. No matter what happens, you can bet it'll be the storyline of the winter in Twins Territory. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz