Ted Schwerzler

Over the offseason, Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Phil Hughes rehabbed from his recent Thoracic Outlet surgery. After getting hit on the kneecap by a comebacker, it seemed Hughes was going to use the months ahead as a time to get all phases of his body right. Now looking at early returns in the 2017 season, it's fair to wonder if "right" is something that will ever completely exist again. Thoracic Outlet Syndrome is a condition that causes symptoms such as numbness in extremities, as well as shoulder and neck pain. The cause is from nerves or blood vessels being strained in a person's chest, and the remedy involves a surgery the removes a rib from the body. In baseball, it's a surgery that has become more prevalent, but one that has had mixed results, and leads to a good deal of uncertainty. For much of 2016, Phil Hughes seemed to be laboring, and at times was even called into question as to why he was pitching at all. There were conflicting reports, and eventually he found himself shelved. His season ended after suffering a left knee fracture endured on a comebacker from J.T. Realmuto. This also served as a time in which he could undergo the TOS surgery, and rehab both injuries to get ready for 2017. At points throughout 2016, Hughes had his velocity questioned, and the results showed there was cause for concern. For a pitcher that hasn't sniffed a double digit strikeout rate since being used as a reliever with the Yankees during 2009, the room for error has always been relatively small. In Hughes' corner, is the reality that with the Twins, he's issued very few free passes (setting an MLB all time record in K/BB during 2013). As things stand now however, hitters seem to be teeing off on what Hughes puts over, and they're having a good amount of success. Starting with velocity, Hughes sees his biggest red flag. When at his best with Minnesota in 2013, he posted an average of 92 mph on his fastball. This season, through three starts, he's averaging under 90 mph on his fastball, with each of his other pitches following suit (in fact, he's lost 3 mph on his changeup). The combined result has equated to Hughes giving up hard hit contact 51.9% of the time (up from 37.7% in 2016, and 30.2% in his career). It seems Hughes is looking for answers as well. In his second start of the season, he threw 25 changeups to opposing batters. For a guy that used the pitch just 3.8% of the time a season ago, his usage rate has skyrocketed to 21.7% this year. Then however, when facing the Indians on April 18, Hughes threw his chanegup just five times in 73 pitches, and was tagged with 6 runs (4 earned) on 8 hits over just 3.1 IP. Over the entirety of his career, Hughes has always been prone to the long fly. In 2015, his 29 homers surrendered led the league, and giving up 11 in 12 games prior to shutting down last season wasn't a great path either. The trend has continued in 2017, as he's allowed three longballs in three starts. What's worse is that along with the lack of velocity, or trust in his offerings, is that Hughes' location hasn't been ideal either. He's given up homers on absolute cookies. What it all boils down to is uncertain at this point, but there's some pretty concerning trends here. The lack of velocity is a real issue, and one that won't correct itself over time. Whether he moves to the pen or not, Hughes' effectiveness is going to be sapped by his declining pitch speed. On top of that, he seems to be guessing as to which pitch he trusts most, and that could leave him in a spot with nothing to rely on. When the dust settles, Phil Hughes is in a place where a guy that doesn't strike many out doesn't want to be. The Twins hurler is giving up a ton of hard contact, keeping lots of balls in the zone, and doesn't have a way to get a pitch by an opposing hitter. With two years and over $26 million left on his contract, the Twins need some sort of revolution from Phil, and it's a serious predicament as to whether or not it will happen. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I too think the depth behind Berrios is concerning. The positive is that if he's a two or three, you can round out with Mejia and maybe Gonsalves behind him. Then go sign a top arm or two during the offseason. The lack of pitching for the extra arms makes very little sense given the 13 man staff.

Right now, the Minnesota Twins have an unsustainable pitching output. While they find themselves near the top of Major League Baseball in ERA, WHIP, and BAA, the reality is that regression is coming. Regardless of how steep that hits, the reality for the Twins in the coming months, is that they should finally have some tough decisions to make on the mound. For far too many of the previous seasons, the practice for Minnesota has been to simply swap out a broken down arm for the next man up. Whether in the rotation or the bullpen, the Twins have just swapped out an arm with a heartbeat for another. Although top tier pitching depth isn't something the organization has in spades, it's getting close to the point that the cream of the crop is rising to the top. The rotation may be the most murky situation for the Twins braintrust to figure out. Ervin Santana and Hector Santiago are going nowhere, unless a trade presents itself. Phil Hughes has been serviceable, and at this point, seems to have put to rest any worry about fallout from his Thoracic Outlet surgery. While still raw, Adalberto Mejia deserves some run, and projects as a solid back end option. While Kyle Gibson has turned decent starts into mediocre ones due to a bad pitch or inning, there's not much place for him to go either. Nearly ready to claim a spot back on the big league bump is top young pitcher Jose Berrios. He's been all but lights out in Rochester thus far, and has made two starts stretching out to just over 80 pitches. Through two starts, Jose owns a 0.64 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and has walked just one batter in 14.0 IP. It's absolutely fair to worry about his big league struggles, but he's mastered Triple-A and needs the next step. There probably aren't too many other arms that factor into the rotation discussion in 2017 (unless Stephen Gonsalves gets healthy quick), but 2018 could see Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Felix Jorge knocking on the door. If Berrios is beginning to command room in the rotation, it's the pen that is going to have suitors in short order as well. It's pretty apparent the Twins pen has been good to start the year. What is also easy to see though, is that it's relatively void of impact arms. Guys like Ryan Pressly, Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers are probably entrenched as they should be. For the rest though, it will continue to be a "prove it" scenario on a nightly basis. Mason Melotakis and Nick Burdi have both kicked off 2017 nicely. Neither has allowed a run, and both are piling up strikeouts. Pitching for Double-A Chattanooga, it's fair to assume they could be moved up quickly. Trevor Hildenberger has continued to throw well for Triple-A Rochester, and should also be forcing himself into the picture. If you want to throw in Tyler Jay and Jake Reed (neither has pitched yet in 2017), there's a good amount of mouths needing to be fed soon. The crossroads Minnesota would welcome, is a scenario in which these top young arms are forcing out guys on the big league roster. Rather than simply realizing a Michael Tonkin or Craig Breslow can't hack it, the Twins could find themselves in position to pick the guys with the greatest upside. It's a scenario that has escaped the club for quite some time, but one that could help to turn the tides back towards relevancy. Regardless of how hard regression hits this pitching staff, the help from Jason Castro, and a much improved defense is going to keep a good portion of it in check. It'd be a welcomed breath of fresh air to see Minnesota around league average in the heart of the summer, and find themselves in a position to take the next step from within. Velocity, strikeouts, and staples are what a good deal of the next wave of pitchers should bring to Target Field. Replacing guys that are already capable with that level of ability is something we can all be a little bit excited about. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The one issue here is that it's Molitor that continues to make a case for Santana. He didn't need to be included, and not just out of this spring. I like Adrianza, but I'm not sure he and Escobar are different enough to coexist. Realistically, you bring up a healthy Park as a bat, and then have a true OF swap in for the 13th pitcher

Before the 2017 season began, I wrote that Minnesota Twins manager Paul Molitor may be managing for his career in 2017. The crux of the thought process is that he's unproven, age isn't on his side, and a new job isn't incredibly likely to present itself. Now into the early part of the season, it's beginning to appear that the Twins record may not be the determining factor in his employment status a year from now. While not electrifying by any means, the Twins have gotten out to a nice start. After losing their first 9 games to kick off the 2016 season, a 7-5 record through 12 this year is something Twins Territory will accept. The club has notched two series victories, and really should have had a third (and second against the Chicago White Sox in as many tries). It's that second series against the White Sox though that presents the case against Molitor for new front office mates, Derek Falvey and Thad Lavine. On Sunday April 16, the Twins held a 1-0 lead thanks to an unlikely inside-the-park home run from Brian Dozier. Hector Santiago was pitching quite a gem, coming on the heels of an Ervin Santana one hit, complete game shutout. The hometown nine gave up the lead on some rather unfortunate fundamentals from normally sound centerfielder Byron Buxton. Despite leading the big leagues in defensive runs saved through the early going, and having a cannon for an arm, Buxton failed to get in proper position on a Matt Davidson fly ball, allowing Jose Abreu to score from third. There's plenty of room to suggest even a properly played ball would have allowed Abreu to score, but the reality is that Buxton didn't get behind the ball, fielded it to the wrong side, and uncorked a less than desirable throw. It hopped a few times, and came in late. Davidson's sac fly for the White Sox came in the 8th inning, and it's there that we find the first curious move from Molitor. To start the inning, Molitor replaced Robbie Grossman in right field with Danny Santana. Although Grossman is no asset himself, Santana as a defensive replacement is laughable at best. A year ago, he was worth -9 DRS in the outfield, and he's among the worst defensive players on any 25 man roster. Given the reality that Minnesota was currently going with a three man bench, the move makes no sense, and would eventually come back to haunt them (more on that in a bit). While not nearly the gaffe that Santana's entry was, Molitor turned the ball over to Matt Belisle in the 8th. It's been relatively apparent in the early going that Ryan Pressly has the best stuff of any Twins reliever. He has strikeout ability, and his velocity is a task for big league hitters. With Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia due up 2nd and 3rd in the inning, the leverage was calling for the club's best pitcher. Belisle struck out Tyler Saladino, hit Jose Abreu, allowed a base hit to Garcia, and then watched the White Sox first basemen to come around and score on Davidson's sac fly. Pressly may not have held the South Siders down, but I'd have given him the chance. In the bottom half of the inning, Molitor's decision defensively immediately came back to bite him. Removing Grossman, a high on base guy and a batter with a strong early slash line, Danny Santana hit behind Joe Mauer who had reached on a single. Santana promptly went down swinging and Mauer never advanced beyond first base. Neither team could push a run across in the 9th, and Molito's earlier decisions were set up to again bite him in extras. During the top of the 10th inning, Leury Garcia hit a looping ball to right field. Not deep in the gap, Santana took a very inefficient route, and turned the base hit from a single to a double. Ryan Pressly was now tasked with a runner in scoring position and no outs, as oppsed to simply having a runner on first. Whether Pressly or Molitor, the Twins decided to pitch to slugger Jose Abreu with Garcia on third and one out. They struck him out, but then decided to double down on their fortune and throw to Avisail Garcia, who was already 3-4 on the day. Despite Garcia not being an otherwordly hitter, Matt Davidson and Cody Asche followed him in the order, and are arguably easier outs. Garcia made the Twins and Pressly pay, as he ripped a 98 mph pitch over the fence in right field. In a vacuum, I can understand how nitpicking a single game over a slate of 162 doesn't hold much water. The reality is that marginal teams need to win the ones they have to their advantage, and steal some down the stretch too. What happened against the White Sox was a perfect example of Paul Molitor managing his way out of competitiveness. Over the course of his tenure with the Twins, he's shown a real ineptitude at times with the bullpen, a lack of understanding in how to best utilize his offensive assets, and an inability to develop his youth. Whether the Twins win or lose 90 games this season, I'd have to imagine the front office is more concerned about how capable Molitor truly is at handling big league scenarios. As the missteps add up, he's building a case against himself. There's validity to Paul Molitor the baseball player being an elite baseball mind. There isn't much to that comment when speaking of the manager though. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, there were few things that looked like a bigger question mark for the Minnesota Twins than their bullpen. With an uncertain starting rotation, the pen had been comprised mainly of holdovers, with veteran additions of Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow. What’s worth noting though, is the Twins have their own secret weapon. Last fall, we saw relievers put onto full display in the Postseason and World Series. The Chicago Cubs leaned on Aroldis Chapman heavily, and no arm was more valuable to their team than Andrew Miller late in games. What was interesting with Miller, is that while he’d likely be the most dominant closer in baseball, Terry Francona routinely brought him into games much earlier. Throughout the Postseason, we saw a pitcher being used in a very unconventional way. Miller has become the gold standard in the big leagues out of the pen, and the Indians turned to him whenever they needed an out. Entering games with runners on in key situations, Miller’s usage bucked the trend of saving your top arm for the final inning. He allowed Cleveland to escape jams and hold onto leads. While the Twins don’t have Andrew Miller, they have their own way to recreate the same scenario. Enter Ryan Pressly. During the offseason, much has been made about what the Twins will do at closer. Brandon Kintzler hanging onto the job while striking no one out is a big ask, and Glen Perkins could be all but done with his major league career. The consensus is that next in line would be either J.T. Chargois or Pressly. For now though, Pressly gives the Twins a really, really nice weapon. Recently, Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse tweeted “Modern bullpen use: Ryan Pressly is Twins best, but not the closer. He's getting 2 outs & leaving lead run on 3rd earlier.” He couldn’t be more spot on. In the third game of the season, Pressly entered in relief of Craig Breslow during the 6th inning. With runners on second and third in a tight game, Pressly got two straight outs and allowed the Twins to leave the inning still tied up. Pressly turned in an 8.00 K/9 in 2016, and got strikeouts against just north of 20% of the batters he faced. Each year since joining the Twins as a Rule 5 pick in 2013, Pressly has upped his velocity, averaging 95.2 mph on his fastball a year ago. He also features a wipeout slider at 88 mph and a strong curveball in the low 80s. Posting a new career high, Pressly generated swing strikes 11.7% of the time a year ago, and he was forcing batters to chase out of the zone one-third of the time. For 2017, Pressly makes right around $7 million less than the Indians superstar, and he has nowhere near the same level of fanfare. Don’t let that fool you though, Paul Molitor has a weapon of his own. While it may be conventional wisdom to have Pressly work the eighth or close games for the Twins, using him as a shutdown arm when the game commands it most gives Minnesota an advantage that is all too valuable. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, there were some very fair concerns surrounding the Minnesota Twins. The team was coming off a franchise worst, 103 loss season, and the offseason didn't bring much in the form of change. That being said, most of the concerns for the upcoming year were pitching related, and really, it should remain that way. The reality is that this team should hit, and we've seen that early. The crux of the argument that the 2017 squad should be significantly better than a year ago is built around a progression concept. With a roster filled with developing cornerstones, experience should result in growth and then equal production. Players like Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and even Eddie Rosario, should only be more productive year over year for the foreseeable future. In the batters box, this team should be expected to compete. There's very little to take away from a small week on sample size. Combine that with the fact that the Kansas City Royals don't have a very good pitching staff on their own, and your left with mostly speculation. However, in the first couple games of the season, Minnesota has shown discipline, power, and production at the plate. Betting on that to cease is probably a fool's errand. A year ago, the Twins were 16th in MLB scoring 722 runs, and that mark was good enough for just ninth in the American League. From an OPS perspective, Minnesota checked in at just 8th in the American League, and 13th overall. They clubbed exactly 200 homers (12th in MLB), and drew 513 walks (13th). As a whole, the Twins were average at best, and with a poor pitching staff, that just wasn't going to get it done. Noting the development and progression I spoke of earlier, expecting a slight jump into the top third of both the big leagues and the American League is a realistic bet for Minnesota. They had just two players (Dozier and Sano) hit 20+ longballs last season, and that number should almost certainly double in 2017. Dozier and Sano remain candidates to repeat, with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and ByungHo Park realistic candidates to join them. There's no doubt this team will strike out, but as evidenced in their second game of the year, they'll take free passes on bad pitching (Twins drew 9 walks against Kansas City). As with the bulk of Major League Baseball teams, the Twins will only go as far as their pitching is going to carry them in 2017, but their offense will provide plenty of opportunities. 2016 was a historically bad year on the mound, so that in and of itself has some real room to reverse its course. Combined with better defense, especially in the outfield, and the expectation that pitching with leads will be more common, this club could provide some fireworks. Early on this year, Paul Molitor has displayed a welcomed ability to understand that lineup effectiveness can be bolstered against different handed pitchers. He has new voices like James Rowson and Jeff Pickler to aide him, along with a front office that is well equipped to help him put his own best foot forward. In short, 2017 still has plenty of questions for the Twins to answer, but whether or not the offense will be an effective one, is not among them. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

With Opening Day now behind us, the Minnesota Twins have set out on the right foot. Winning their first Opening Day game since 2008, this club is already in a better position than many of those from seasons past. Although the seven run performance, highlighted by a Miguel Sano blast, was fun, it was Byron Buxton who should have had your full attention. On offense, things weren't ideal for the Twins phenom. In five at bats, he struck out three times. He was dealt a heavy dose of fastballs, and the majority were over the middle of the plate. Among the 21 pitches he saw from Royals hurlers, the Twins centerfielder swung through eight of them. The roughly 30% strikeout rate isn't something I think Byron gets away from, but he can't miss pitches at nearly a 40% clip. I have suggested a good amount this offseason, that I think Buxton comes into more power than we may have anticipated. Although I believe it comes as a detriment to his average and on-base percentage. Buxton could put 20 balls in the seats while batting .260 and the Twins should feel pretty good about it. His swing and miss tendencies are going to remain, but the offensive ability should rear it's head this season. Even if (when) the breakout does happen offensively, it's going to be defense that carries most of the star centerfielder's value. During the game, I discussed the defensive value that Buxton had shown a year ago. With just 3 DRS to his credit across 773.2 innings a season ago, we can see some of the fickle nature that defensive analytics are subject to. Buxton was never consistently in centerfield for Minnesota last year, and he was pressing quite often. Despite being noted as a defensive stalwart, Buxton's DRS total lagged significantly behind the Rays Kevin Kiermaier's (25 DRS in 872.1 innings). With the idea that Buxton has a full 2017 in centerfield for the Twins ahead of him, we should get a much more realistic sample size. Likely playing around 150 games in the outfield for the Twins, Buxton should log north of 1,000 innings. Allowing the one-time top prospect that type of run, we should have a very firm standing as to how fair his defensive measurements represent the output. A season ago, Buxton logged six "5 star catches" per Statcast. Even with his choppy sample size, he checked in as among the most prolific outfielders in the game. On Opening Day this season, Buxton logged his first "5 Star Catch" as well as making a second diving grab. The snag on Alex Gordon's liner required him to cover 36 feet in roughly 2.9 seconds. His closing speed being impeccable as it is, made the out look much more routine that can even be stated. On Opening Day, I think the reality is that Buxton has come full circle to show us both sides of his game. He's no longer timid in the box, and is swinging with authority. Likely more often than most would like, that will cause some issues. That being said, there's a level of restored confidence there, and that should contribute to bigger offensive production, and a real expectation for power numbers. In being able to settle in at the dish a bit more, Buxton is going to be in center to stay. For that, Twins pitchers will find themselves thankful much more often than not. Even with some deficiencies offensively, the Twins centerfielder is a weapon in the outfield, and as he rounds out his game as a whole, the arrow only continues to point up. This season, we should see Buxton develop much more significantly into the player he'll spend the next ten years or so being. Right now, he's far from a finish product, but in the span of one after, we were shown just about every aspect of his game that we can expect to play out. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

You've made it Twins fans, Opening Day is here. The long winter has since ended, and meaningless spring training games are in the rear view mirror. As Ervin Santana toes the rubber at Target Field, the first pitch of the 2017 Major League Baseball season for Minnesota will commence. With a 162 game slate ahead, here's what you should be watching for. First and foremost, let's catch you up if you aren't. These are some key pieces for the 2017 season that you may have missed: Division, World Series, and Award predictions 2017 Minnesota Twins win total and over/unders Two future moves that hinge on how 2017 plays out The rebuild is over, it's time to build With that out of the way, I think there's four key narratives to be watching this season. While the playoffs may be out of reach, it's these storylines that will dictate the path that the Minnesota Twins find themselves traveling on in the seasons to come: Paul Molitor Right now, Molitor is managing as a lame duck. He's on the last year of his contract, and was mandated that he be retained by his now current bosses. At this point, Molitor has put up two seasons with mixed results, but ultimately, a flawed process. A year ago, he showed poor bullpen usage, lackluster lineup construction, and a failure to develop and connect with his young talent. Regardless of what the results end up being, Paul Molitor is going to need to hone in on his process. Can he nail down a lineup that has more sensibility to it, or at least stays consistent for some period of time? Will he be able to manage a bullpen, that already seems a bit thin, in a way that gives Minnesota an advantage? Can Minnesota's skipper get the most out of his young players and help them develop into the stars they've been touted as. It's make or break for Molitor this season, and if he wants to stay in charge of this club, the Falvey and Levine regime are going to need to see something. Byron Buxton More than any other player, it's important that Buxton breaks out. Miguel Sano is an exciting name, but a big home run threat with a high ability to strike out is something we've always expected of him. With Buxton, the elite defense is already apparent, but the offensive game needs to come into its own as well. With what we know about Buxton as a hitter, and what I believe him to be capable of, I see a guy more likely to hit 20 homers a season than bat at a .300 clip. If he can display some solid power, steal a handful of bases, and brandish the offensive tool that made him the number one prospect in all of baseball, the Twins will be in good shape. The immediate relevancy of the Twins relies upon Buxton's ability to become the player he was seen to project as. At this point, the time is now. Jose Berrios Similar to Buxton, Berrios needs to emerge for the Twins. While Minnesota is relying on Byron to round out his game, the organization needs to allow Berrios to sink or swim. While it's fine that he'll start at Triple-A Rochester, keeping him there past April would seem to be a major mistake. There's never been any real steam to Berrios being an ace, but for an organization starved for pitching, the reality is the Puerto Rican needs to round into a top of the rotation starter. If that takes half a season of him taking his lumps from big leaguers, so be it. Jason Castro and Neil Allen hold the keys to unlocking Berrios' final hurdle, and it has to happen now. 2018 can't be a question mark for Berrios and the Twins. Minnesota needs to know what they have, and Jose needs to be given ample opportunity to prove it. Prospects At this point, the Twins farm system is nowhere near what it recently was. That's hardly a bad thing however, as the graduations have resulted in a big league roster filled with top tier ability. On the farm though, there's a handful of names that are integral to the immediate and sustained success. Players like Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, Mason Melotakis, Tyler Jay and J.T. Chargois need to establish themselves this season. Having those arms in the pen allows for Minnesota to build relief from within, and it's on their shoulders that big games will be closed out for years to come. We need to see Fernando Romero, Kohl Stewart, Felix Jorge, and Stephen Gonsalves all ready to kick the door in. Again, with starting pitching an issue, having a stable of big league ready arms by season's end is a must. Should development of the young offensive talent turn into refined big leaguers by season's end, it's these "next up" prospects that will join a roster ready to make playoff runs in 2018 and going forward. Having them advance through the system, and look ready to contribute, is something we need to see happen. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Gimenez is the backup 1B, which I agree, doesn't help with getting Mauer out of the lineup more.

Apparently it will be Gimenez

The Minnesota Twins all but announced their 25 man Opening Day roster. In doing so, they dropped a couple of bombs. First, they would be going with 13 pitchers, and then secondly, they'd send ByungHo Park to Rochester despite no real good reason to do so. As the dust settled from the fallout, we're sitting here left to scratch out heads. First and foremost, here's the Twins Opening Day roster: Starters: Santana, Santiago, Gibson, Hughes, Mejia Relievers: Kintzler, Pressly, Belisle, Breslow, Tonkin, Duffey, Rogers, Haley Lineup: Castro ©, Mauer (1B), Dozier, (2B), Sano (3B), Polanco (SS), Rosario (LF), Buxton (CF), Kepler (RF), Grossman (DH) Bench: Santana, Gimenez, Escobar So, what to make of this? Let's start on the mound. Adalberto Mejia, the Twins return for Eduardo Nunez, cracks the Opening Day rotation. There's nothing wrong with this, and he's more than deserving. I wrote about how he could be a dark horse candidate even prior to Trevor May's injury. He had a strong spring, provides a second lefty, and while his ceiling isn't that high, he should be more than a serviceable back end starter. What happened with Mejia however, allowed the Twins to balk on making a decision between him and Duffey. Instead of picking one for the 5th starter, the club then doubled down and sent Duffey to the pen. I really like him as a fit there, but putting him in the group to make a total of eight pitchers is nonsensical. There's no good reason to hang onto Michael Tonkin in this scenario, and if Duffey wasn't being stretched out to stay as a starter, then whittling the pen and using a higher value arm in Duffey makes sense. Minnesota's bullpen could be among the worst in the big leagues this year. They did nothing to significantly improve it, and none of the high ceiling arms (save for Taylor Rogers and Ryan Pressly) are a part of it. Duffey can move the water mark, but adding him to a glut of mediocrity is silly. Then we get to the position players... Immediately, the most egregious problem is that the roster has no ByungHo Park on it. While it could be argued that Kennys Vargas is a better fit, he is also void of inclusion, likely to start the year on the disabled list. The Twins DFA'd Park prior to spring training, he went out and made it look silly, and then was still left out in the cold. By leaving Park in Rochester, the Minnesota Twins will DH Robbie Grossman to start the year. That's a fine situation, especially given his on base prowess. What Grossman doesn't bring to the plate is much power. He hit 11 homers (a career high) a season ago, and his .828 OPS was over .100 points higher than his career water mark. On top of not having Park's power in the lineup, they also don't have his bat off of the bench. Worse than not having Park getting regular at bats after showing a much improved process this spring, is what Paul Molitor will have available to him off the bench. Only three players are going to be in reserve, with one of them being backup catcher Chris Gimenez. Eduardo Escobar is limited to a utility infield role, while Danny Santana can play everywhere, but is a defensive liability in all those spots as well. Although American League teams definitely don't need the bench that a National League team does, the Twins bench has three players with an average OPS of .609. Without looking, that has to be among the worst in the big leagues. There's no value coming into a pinch hit situation, and that could leave the skipper more hamstrung than you'd want him to be. At the end of the day, the Twins are going to note they wanted eight pitchers. They have a bullpen comprised of guys that don't bring a bunch of value, and they sapped their offensive value through this construction. It doesn't look great on paper, and it's hard to see it being the best scenario. That being said, we'll get to see how it plays out in very short order. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I'd argue there's little chance Kepler is sent out, but I do agree that his swing isn't necessarily designed to result in HRs

Interested as to why? Agree, but why?

This is a neat idea, I like it!

While you present a good argument, I don't think Boshers and a potential move has anything to do with his spring. The reality is that there's other relievers with higher ceilings close behind him. However, I'm in agreement that I'd DFA Murphy or even Ryan O'Rourke first.

With Opening Day of the 2017 Major League Baseball season upon us, it's time to take a look at what could be ahead for the home nine. There's plenty of projection systems out there giving us indications of what may happen, but only through a sports book can you make concrete guesses that equal out to dollars and cents. It's time to take a look at the over/unders for all things Twins related. Pulled from Bovada, there's both individual as well as team specific over/unders for the 2017 season. Although the Twins don't have anywhere close to a national following, there's still a good number of big name players with specific achievements tabulated for them. Whether $5 or $500, here's your guide as to where you confidence should lie while putting up some cash on the Twinkies. Brian Dozier HRs 29.5 Coming off a campaign in which he launched 42 longballs, Brian Dozier is in for some regression. The question that needs to be answered, is how far backwards does the Twins second basemen go? In 2016, he became the only player not named Harmon Killebrew to hit 40 HRs in a season for Minnesota. Prior to that effort, he launched 23 and 28 respectively. In 2016, Dozier's HR/FB% was a career best 18.4% and well off his 12.7% career mark. If there's a Twins player I'm betting on hitting 30 homers in 2017, it's a husky 3B, not Dozier. Bet: Under 4* (Based on a 1* to 5* confidence rating) Ervin Santana Wins 10.5 A year ago, the Twins had the worst starting staff in the big leagues. Not one pitcher picked up more than nine wins, and that was from Tyler Duffey, who was sent to Triple-A at one point. In two seasons with Minnesota, Santana has yet to record double-digit wins (albeit his 2015 was shortened). This season, he should have a solid offense behind him, but the question has to be in regards to how many leads the early season bullpen gives up. Pitcher wins are a fickle stat, and on a bad staff, I want no part of them. Bet: Under 2* Joe Mauer AVG .270 It's been three years since Joe Mauer has finished a season with an average north of .270. In 2014, the former MVP batted .277 with a .732 OPS across 120 G for the Twins. This season, Paul Molitor has talked plenty about how he'll need to give his first basemen regular rest, and target a lesser load to get the best out of him. If that is followed through upon, Mauer has a chance to put up his best season since being an All Star in 2013. Mauer is a Gold Glove caliber first basemen that just can't play every day anymore, Should Minnesota use Mauer correctly, and more against RHPs (.793 OPS vs RHP .610 OPS vs LHP in 2016), then he has a very realistic shot to impress. Bet: Over 3* Max Kepler HR 17.5 This is one of the most interesting numbers in the set. Kepler is not a traditional power hitter in that his swing is more reflective of a smooth stroke that simply runs into the ball. I like Kepler a lot, and think he'll make a nice career of doing damage in the gaps. He blasted 17 homers in just 113 games a year ago, and should have more opportunities this season. Kepler's lobgalls came in bunches though, and bolstered by a three-HR game, he hit 12 in a 26 game span. I'll go out on a limb here and say Byron Buxton hits more longballs than the German in 2017. Bet: Under 2* Miguel Sano HR 29.5 Do you know what the Twins third basemen is going to do a lot of in 2017? He's going to strike out. Miguel Sano is also going to send a lot of baseballs into the stratosphere. Last season, in 116 games, Sano hit 25 homers. Over that time, he was told to learn a new (and odd) position, and he wasn't healthy for a good portion of the season. Regardless of the setbacks, Sano came up just five dingers shy of the 30 mark. In 2017, I'd expect Sano to strike out no less than 200 times, but when he hits 35 homers, it's not going to matter much. Bet: Over 4* Minnesota Twins Wins 74.5 Wrapping up the list is the team number. Coming off of a 103 loss season, winning 75 games seems like a massive jump. The reality though, is that the 2016 outfit wasn't anything significantly different than the 2015 team that won 83 games. If there's something of a wildcard here, I think it's Paul Molitor. He's mismanaged his lineup and bullpen for some time, and that's going to cost a team needing to steal wins. At the end of the day though, I think the Twins have a better chance at winning 80 games, than I see them losing 90. Bet: Over 3* For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As the spring training slate comes to a close, I couldn't help but find myself wondering about the pitching for the Minnesota Twins. The organization put forth the worst starting ERA in the majors a season ago, and the relief corps wasn't far behind. Going into 2017, it needs to be markedly better, and there's three different storylines I'm keyed in on. First, let's start with the good. Kyle Gibson has been one of the best storylines for the Minnesota Twins this spring. Across seven starts, he's compiled 28.1 IP worth of work, and owns a 1.59 ERA. Although the sinkerballer has just 19 strikeouts, he's only issued five free passes, and has been incredibly efficient. Coming off of his worst year as a major leaguer, Gibson has some late breakout appeal. He posted a 3.84 ERA along with a 3.96 FIP in 2015, and there was some real steam behind him being a star performer a season ago. Unfortunately that never got off the ground, and while defense hurt him, he didn't help himself much either. Although spring numbers can be taken with a very small grain of salt, he's looked like a man on a mission. Gibson has been efficient, calculated, and very, very good. I don't want to suggest that it's because of his Florida performance that causes him to breakout, but a very good outfield should help him, and this could be the year we see Kyle Gibson look like the Twins former top pitching prospect was expected to perform. Now, somewhere in the middle ground, we find Jose Berrios. Recently he was optioned to Triple-A Rochester. I can understand that he wasn't ramped up after pitching (or not pitching enough) in the World Baseball Classic. However, if he was truly in play for the 5th starter spot, he could have easily been stretched out for 80 pitches by the time his first outing rolled around. The more I thought about the decision, the more frustration I found myself having. Berrios is headed back to Triple-A again, and he'll be making his 31st start there, as parts of three major stints. For a top pitching prospect that's really blocked by no one, it's a relatively unprecedented move. Minnesota has a hopeful Phil Hughes, and an unnecessary Hector Santiago in their rotation. If the latter ended up bouncing Berrios, that's an unfortunate development. At some point, the command has to develop for Berrios, and if Minnesota believes he's better off not working with Neil Allen every day, that's probably an indictment of their big league pitching coach. While I can understand the legitimacy of the reasoning behind his optioning, the optics behind it don't look good, and the Twins again decided against giving a high ceiling arm an opportunity. Rounding out the trio is a situation that absolutely revolves around high ceilings. In the bullpen, I've often suggested the need to be either creative or good. As Minnesota heads north, it doesn't appear their seven relievers will be either of those things. In my last roster projection, I tabbed the group as being Kintzler, Belisle, Pressly, Wimmers, Haley, Breslow, and Rogers. Of that group, you could probably tab Pressly as good, with creative going to Rogers. Over the offseason, the Twins knew relief pitching was an issue for them. Instead of throwing more money than maybe a player was worth at names like Romo, Holland, Feliz, or any number of others, they settled on one veteran While Matt Belisle has proved serviceable of late, he wasn't going to be near the top of anyone's relief help list. They enlisted Craig Breslow as a veteran who's reinvented himself, but even he was brought in on a minor league deal. When the dust settled, Minnesota did nothing to greatly improve its pen from outside. Regardless of the fact that veteran relievers can be had easily on one-year deals (and flipped just as easily) Minnesota stood pat. Then they doubled down on the move by suggesting that none of J.T. Chargois, Jake Reed, or Nick Burdi were ready for the big time. It's absolutely fair to have reservations about those prospects, but if your pen isn't going to be good, giving them run is far from a bad ask. There was really nothing determined this spring that the Twins didn't already know on those prospects either, so the idea that they were on the outside looking in with no real talented veterans above them is a bit disheartening. At the end of the day, the Twins are going to have to navigate some tough situations on the mound. The rotation remains relatively unchanged, and while Berrios can breathe life into it at some point, Santiago may be sucking it out for a while. Kyle Gibson could be on the verge of a breakthrough, and Paul Molitor desperately needs him to do so. In the pen, the lack of managerial acumen Molitor showed last season, combined with hit or miss arms, Minnesota could be looking at more blown leads than they care to admit to. Baseball is a game of pitching and hitting, and if you don't have the former, the latter doesn't matter much. The Twins may win one, they're likely going to lose one of these storylines, and well, Jose, it rains... For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I'd HOPE this isn't the rotation or pen we see even a month from now. I think the Twins are better off with both Duffey and Mejia, but if Tyler starts, there isn't room for both.

It's sure a nice story of resiliency

Perkins to the 60 day is all but guaranteed. Boshers is off I'd guess after losing out, and O'Rourke is slated for the 10 day DL I believe. If they go Wimmers (which I would), then I think Tonkin is the final domino.

My first Minnesota Twins 25 man roster projection came out way back in January, the second version was then looked at in the middle of March. Now with Spring Training virtually over, it's time to get serious about who's coming north. It seems pretty clear who Minnesota will bring, but before the final announcement is made, I need to take one last shot. The Twins still have just over 40 guys left in camp, and 10 of them are non-roster guys. A few of them have already been told they'll be reassigned to Rochester, so that helps with clarity a bit further. Given what we know, here's how I see the final 25 shaking out. Rotation (5) Ervin Santana Hector Santiago Kyle Gibson Phil Hughes Tyler Duffey Paul Molitor recently told Mike Berardino that Santiago would start game 2 behind Santana, with Gibson to follow. That means Hughes gets the fourth game of the year and the fifth starter makes their debut against the White Sox. While the 5th starter could have been Trevor May or Adalberto Mejia, it's Tyler Duffey who has had a spring worthy of holding onto the job. I still think long term he profiles best in the pen, but to start 2017, this is where he begins. Starting Lineup (9) Jason Castro C Joe Mauer 1B Brian Dozier 2B Jorge Polanco SS Miguel Sano 3B Eddie Rosario LF Byron Buxton CF Max Kepler RF ByungHo Park DH No changes here from roster projection 2.0. Kennys Vargas was given the opportunity to win the DH spot and simply fell short. He went to the WBC, didn't play, and then got hurt when he returned. I remain skeptical Vargas is a productive big leaguer, and while the injury gives Minnesota something to pin it on, the reality is that Park is simply the better DH option. If there's something of intrigue here, it's that Eddie Rosario put together a really nice WBC and spring in general. He's expanding the zone just a bit less, and looks locked in defensively. If he can bring back some of the magic from his rookie season, the Twins stand to benefit big time. Bench (4) Eduardo Escobar Robbie Grossman Chris Gimenez Danny Santana Much remains the same here from the roster projection earlier this month. Drew Stubbs failed to capitalize on his opportunity to take Grossman's spot and has been released. The biggest difference is the inclusion of Danny Santana. The final bench spot should've (and likely would've) been Ehire Adrianza's. A strained oblique late in spring training is going to have him open the season on the DL, and that likely saves Santana from the DFA that was looming. I don't see him as a productive big leaguer, he plays poor defense everywhere and struggles with the bat, but he's going to get a couple weeks to prove it. Bullpen (7) Brandon Kitnzler Closer Ryan Pressly Setup Matt Belisle Justin Haley Craig Breslow Taylor Rogers Alex Wimmers The bullpen has seen a little bit of a shakeup since earlier this month. Chargois was optioned to Triple-A, and while it would've been nice to see him make the big league club, the reality was that a shaky spring did him in. I expect him to grab saves for Minnesota at some point in 2017, but he'll start the year on the farm. Taking the place of Chargois comes down to a two man race between Michael Tonkin and Alex Wimmers. The former is out of options and likely wouldn't pass through waivers, but his spring hasn't been indicative of a guy the Twins can rely on. Coming back on a minor league deal, Wimmers has been solid enough in the limited spring action, and could offer some value in middle relief. His velocity has seen a spike since moving to the pen, he has been a better pitcher. It remains a tossup as to what the Twins do there, but Tonkin may have used his last chance. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The United States captured their first ever World Baseball Classic trophy. After coming up short in the previous three contests, it was the fourth time that the American's captured the title. In doing so, they knocked off a Puerto Rican squad that had earlier bested them in the tourney. It is that Puerto Rican team that ended up being the focus for many Twins fans as well. Although there was a handful of players with Twins ties all over World Baseball Classic rosters, it was Jose Berrios, Eddie Rosario, and Kennys Vargas playing on a stacked Puerto Rican squad that drew the most concentration. What's interesting, and maybe maddening for Minnesota, is that each of the trio had a very different experience during the tournament. The reality of the situation is that we're looking at a max of an eight game sample size, and right around 30 at bats for position players. That's incredibly foolish to draw any conclusions based off of (as Nolan Arenado displayed in the title game), but there's plenty to be said about process and how things played out. With Puerto Rico advancing to the Championship, the squad played in eight games from March 12-22. In those eight games, Twins left fielder Eddie Rosario played in six of them compiling 19 at bats. He hit to a solid OPS, and the highlight of his tournament was easily the laser he threw to catcher Yadier Molina to cut down a runner at the plate. For his part in the tournament, the Twins have to be happy with how his dice roll shook out. Rosario was likely always a lock for the Opening Day roster. He had a less than ideal season a year ago, both at the plate and defensively. In participating in the World Baseball Classic, he was able to accumulate similar at bats to those he was missing in Grapefruit League action, and showed positive signs of being ready for the season. He'll settle in as a regular for Minnesota, and if he can continue to hone in on the strike zone, a big season could be in store for him. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Minnesota finds Kennys Vargas. He was given a vote of confidence to win the starting DH spot when ByungHo Park was removed from the 40 man roster. Although I've never seen Vargas as the superior player, it seemed Minnesota was going to allow him an opportunity to prove it. In WBC play though, Vargas was cast more along the lines of how I view him ever fitting with Minnesota. Across the eight games, Vargas played in just three. The Twins first basemen routinely sat behind T.J. Rivera, a guy that's started a whopping 33 G at first across 600+ professional outings. Vargas struck out in just under half of his at bats (4/9), and while he did hit a home run, was routinely an afterthought. Not only did he miss out on vital spring plate appearances, but he's likely had to watch as ByungHo Park's spring has also overtaken his 25 man roster spot. That dice roll couldn't have gone worse for Minnesota. Their plan didn't work, and their guy didn't get his work in. Landing somewhere in the middle is arguably the most talented of the group, Jose Berrios. Expected to be in the competition for the 5th starter role, Berrios was given the opportunity to throw in just two contests. His first outing was a five inning start that featured a blow up, two home run inning, and was then solidified by being a six strikeout and one walk performance. Pitching for the last time in the title game, he was brought on in relief. After striking out four of the first five hitters he faced and looking untouchable, Berrios gave up a hit, hit Eric Hosmer, and walked a batter. When the dust settled, three earned runs were charged in just 1.2 IP. For Berrios' participation in the WBC, he didn't really do anything too damaging results wise, but the process was something that left much to be desired. While command alluded him at times as it had in 2016, the Twins young phenom simply wasn't stretched out at all. He couldn't ramp up past 40 pitches or so, and almost certainly won't be on track to start full games when the season kicks off. That in and of itself essentially takes him from consideration for a starting role. For the player that maybe needed it most, the dice roll here just leaves everyone feeling empty. The run that Puerto Rico made back to the title game was a fun one, and totally worth being locked into. For Eddie Rosario, it could vault him into a fast start. Kennys Vargas may find himself on the outside looking in, and Jose Berrios could be left wondering what happened. For everything the WBC isn't results wise, the process still matters, and that's where the Twins may be found scratching their heads. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Have followed Corcino a good bit as I've developed a decent relationship with Berrios and a couple people he works out with. Corcino is an intriguing guy for sure. He is 24 though and needs to spend the bulk of this season with Rochester if he's going to get looks from Minnesota.

Dozier being included in "other" was more in that he's established as a veteran as opposed to a top tier young guy. I don't believe the Twins should sign any big name pitchers this season. After 2017 though, depending on the developmental arc of guys, they should be considering it.