Ted Schwerzler

As the second half of the Major League Baseball season gets underway, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in an interesting position. Despite being in contention and owners of a winning record, they sport a -60 run differential and are void of pitching options. A crossroads is appearing, and Minnesota will need to decide how they are going to acquire some arms. With the trade deadline quickly approaching, it's pretty easy to note that this club should not be in win now mode. That's to say, no acquisitions for rentals should be made, and the goal shouldn't be to contend in 2017. If transactions are coming, they should all be forward thinking and have future value. So, if that's the plan of action, there's a handful of exciting names that could be on the table. Recently, Ken Rosenthal tweeted the Twins are checking in on controllable starters. This is absolutely the right avenue to pursue. Those names would include the likes of Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Chris Archer, Marcus Stroman, Dan Straily, Julio Teheran or even Gerrit Cole. Now, that group (and there's more possibilities that fall under the umbrella) are going to have varying degrees of asking prices. Regardless of what the Athletics try to argue, the likes of Archer or Stroman represents a superior option to Sonny Gray. Cole and Stroman are near the top end of the spectrum, while Quintana and Teheran hover around the middle. Given the differing acquisition cost of each, the Twins will need to tread lightly. In flipping players, Minnesota will likely be asked for top prospects such as Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, and Fernando Romero. They could be pushed on Max Kepler, and while there's other names that could draw interest, that foursome probably commands the most attention. Given that level of talent, it will be on the front office of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to decide if surrendering those players are worthy of making a swap. It's a scenario that will weigh heavily, especially in baseball with another option looming so easily. It's just money right? Well, that's true to a certain extent, and in an uncapped sport, Minnesota has plenty of it. While you may have disparaged the club previously for being cheap, spending whil the bulk of your roster is subpar doesn't make sense. Given where the organization is right now however, supplementing the roster with a big contract or two could be enough to put you over the top. Sure, the Twins don't have the TV revenue of other markets (meaning the dollars are stretched just a bit further), but they have the means to command the attention of any free agent they covet. Aside from making a deal with another club, the organization could go with a cost that only requires dollars and cents. Someone like Yu Darvish, with whom Thad Levine is intimately familiar, is a pretty obvious option this offseason. Yes, he'll cost you significantly in terms of cash flow, but he represents the clear upgrade with all of the reasons the Twins as a landing spot just may work. Given the current landscape of the organization, the window to win has begun to open. Inserting at least one top tier rotation arm will go a long ways to kick it to a gaping degree. If Minnesota can have prospects like Romero and Gonsalves to turn to, as well as a Darvish type, the dollar cost may end up seeming like a moot point as the dust settles. Should the organization go the trade route, the hope would be that they aim high. Whatever Sonny Gray commands, an Archer, Stroman, or Cole should be more intriguing. If you're giving up prospects, don't stop short of getting the near-guaranteed boost. To deal from youth with a potential to end up looking at another middle of the rotation starter isn't a practice you want to follow. In the coming weeks, we will soon have a more clear picture as to how the Twins will choose to navigate these waters. There's no denying they need pitching, and they're more than one arm away. The hope would be that they choose to acquire help in a way that not only sets them up to take a step forward, but also doesn't sacrifice any presumed longevity of their winning ways. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming off a season in which the Minnesota Twins posted a record amount of losses, conventional wisdom would've told you to be down on this 2017 squad. However, a year prior in 2015, virtually the same group compiled an 83-79 mark. At the All Star Break this season, Paul Molitor's club looks more the group of two years ago as opposed to the one from last year. There's been good, bad, and ugly, but what do we make of it all? First and foremost, the Twins were tabbed with an over/under of 74.5 wins going into 2017. At 45-42 at the break, they're on pace 83 wins, and need to go just 30-45 the rest of the way to surpass betting expectations. Through three full months, Minnesota has had two winning flips of the calendar, and a June that saw them miss a .500 month by one game. Back in 2015, a 20-7 May set the pace for the rest of the season, and that team finished with just two winning months total. Against the rest of the AL Central, the Twins are +2 in the win column, with their best record coming against the Kansas City Royals. The home and road splits have been odd, but are merely an outcome of random variation. The expectation would be that the 20-28 home record sees improvement, while the 25-15 road record takes a step backwards. Given a -60 run differential however, the club will have to make sure whatever slide the do hit, isn't as drastic as that number says it should be. Numbers aside, this club has a few things to investigate at the midway point. First and foremost, pitching has been virtually what it was expected to be. The rotation has been up and down, being saved from disaster in part thanks to Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios. In relief, the bullpen has been nothing short of atrocious save for Brandon Kintzler and Taylor Rogers. The rotation was going to be questionable at best, but has been supported by a strong defense and improved catching game. THe pen could've been upgraded, but with Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow the only offseason additions of note, the level of futility isn't hard to imagine. On offense, Brian Dozier has (as expected) regressed towards career averages, while Miguel Sano has been just as good (if not better) than his rookie season. We haven't yet seen the big contributions at the plate from Byron Buxton, and players like Max Kepler and Robbie Grossman have waded somewhere in the middle ground. At times, Eddie Rosario has looked like a contributor, and Joe Mauer has trended in a positive direction. With much less reason to worry about the sticks going into the 2017 campaign, it's been about as expected. Going forward, the Twins are going to need to fend off a form of regression that's almost certain to come. There's plenty of reason to suggest they'll hang around late into the season, the quality of the AL Central chief among them, but there's going to be tough tests ahead. Coming out of the All Star Break, Minnesota faces the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers all in short order. Getting swept or beat in each of those series could put a quick damper on the last half of the season. As July concludes, the Twins will likely find themselves in a similar position to where they are currently. They've exceeded expectations, but aren't truly a contender. There wasn't enough ammunition brought in over the winter to make this current roster construction viable, and nothing focused on winning in 2017 will change that. To define the Twins positioning, they should be both buyers and sellers. If looking to acquire talent, it should be controllable options with high ceilings. That may have a significant price tag, but players like Chris Archer or Marcus Stroman aren't simply a 2017 answer, and that's a good thing. On the flip side, if there's teams willing to give you real talent back for someone like Brandon Kintzler, Ervin Santana, or even Brian Dozier, you'd absolutely be best suited to listen. If you told the casual Twins fan that they'd be 45-43 at the All Star Break this season, I'd imagine the response would be one of disbelief. The position this club finds itself in is a good one, that presents itself as unsustainable, but also makes you wonder what could be if more was done. Going forward, Molitor and the front office will need to get more from less the rest of the way. They'll need to scratch out victories and claw to stay in contention. Missing the playoffs isn't a death sentence, but playing meaningful late season games is far from a guarantee as well. Thus far, the 2017 Twins have had a successful season. It will be on those currently in the room to ensure it ends that way. To wrap up, here's a few first half awards of note: Team MVP: Miguel Sano .276/.368/.538 Sano has looked the part of a middle of the order bat. Sure, he's striking out a ton, and I'd still like to see a few more walks, but everything else is there. The power is real, he hits everything hard, and he's been well above expectations at 3B. Biggest Surprise: Brandon Kintzler 2.29 ERA 24 SV Kintzler doesn't have any of the peripherals a traditional closer possesses, but he continues to make it work. Despite the low strikeout rates, he's a ground ball machine and doesn't walk anyone. It's not always pretty, but Kintzler has been a bright spot in an otherwise abysmal bullpen. Biggest Disappointment: Jorge Polanco .224/.273/.323 I've been a Polanco fan for some time now, and it's always been his bat that suggested he was big league ready. This season, he's been above average through virtually the whole first half as a defensive shortstop, but hasn't hit at all. Completely opposite of his career norms, you have to hope the bat picks up soon. Most Improved: Jason Castro .223/.317/.370 This is less about Castro as a player specifically than it is about the upgrade he represents. The Twins suffered through a terrible rotation of Kurt Suzuki and Juan Centeno a year ago. While Castro hasn't hit really at all, he's been great behind the dish, and without him, the marginal pitching staff would be incredibly worse off. 2nd Half Key: Jose Berrios 3.53 ERA 8.7 K/9 2.4 BB/9 Through his first few turns, Berrios looked the part of the incredible pitching prospect he's been touted to be. He did fade a bit down the stretch, and Minnesota will need that to cease. Given the revolving door that the rotation has been, the Twins can't afford Berrios not to be a high level asset. Whether they trade Santana or not, this team needs Berrios to continue to be an impact hurler virtually every time he steps on the mound. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. 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When the Minnesota Twins signed Bartolo Colon to a minor league deal, my initial reaction was one of disbelief. I'm not sure where the feeling came from. It could've been because Colon is a big name, maybe because he has a big ERA, or maybe because at 44 years old, he's a big guy still playing baseball at the highest level. I've now had time to mull it over, and I couldn't be more ecstatic. Coming out of the All Star Break, the Minnesota Twins will go with a rotation consisting of (and, in order): Jose Berrios, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, and Adalberto Mejia. Of that group, Gibson has continued to struggle, and Mejia remains unproven. They'll need to address what to do with Hector Santiago at some point, and Phil Hughes appears to have been jettisoned to the pen despite being owed $26.4 million over the next two years. Where we sit today though, the home nine need another starter. At this point, we've seen Quad-A type pitchers like Nik Turley and Adam Wilk get a shot. We've brought in veterans like Dillon Gee (who has now seemingly been passed over), and we've watched a Double-A hurler in Felix Jorge make the jump. None of the options Minnesota has cycled through have looked the part of someone that can immediately stick long term. Enter Colon, Bartolo. Yes, Bartolo Colon has been an atrocity for the Atlanta Braves in 2017. He owns an 8.14 ERA and an equally bad 5.08 FIP. Over the course of 13 starts for Atlanta, he has just two quality starts, and has failed to make it to the 5th inning on six occasions. If you look at his last 10 starts, negative two gems to start the season, he owns an even worse 9.59 ERA. All that said, it's about as bad as it gets. There's rays of hope however. Let's start with where he was a season ago. With the 2016 Mets, Colon was a mainstay in one of the best rotations baseball had to offer. Across 33 starts (34 games), Colon owned a 3.43 ERA and a solid 3.99 FIP. In fact, prior to 2017, the last time Colon posted an FIP higher than 4.00 was 2009 in a 12 start year for the Chicago White Sox. As a right-handed pitcher, Colon has generally kept same-handedness hitters in check. During 2016, he allowed a .664 OPS to righties while giving up a .795 mark to lefties. The script has flipped in 2017, as he's surrendered a 1.011 OPS to righties and an .879 OPS to lefites. The surface numbers don't suggest all that much has changed either. His 6.0 K/9 is in line with career norms, while his 2.9 BB/9 is up from where he's been since 2011, it isn't an egregious total. If there's an number that pops off the page, it's the 13.1 H/9 and 1.6 HR/9. It's pretty obvious that extra baserunners, and balls leaving the yard, aren't a recipe for success. What's promising is what lies beneath. Thus far, Colon has been victim to a .360 BABIP number in 2017. That's way up from a .296 career average, and well above the MLB average this season. Not in line with the rise, Colon is allowing a 32.6 Hard%, which is below his 2016 number, and essentially his average dating back to 2014. A 14.3% HR/FB rate explains the rise in longballs, but well hit baseballs aren't something that seems to be a large problem for Bartolo. On top of all of this, his velocities have held strong. He's averaging 90.7 mph on his fastball this year, up slightly over 2016, and at a normal rate of decline given his age and career arc. So, what we see is that Colon's surface numbers are an outlier, and that the supporting numbers don't necessarily suggest such a drastic change should be taking place. Of course, we're dealing with a 44 year old who has more than 3,200 innings on his arm. It's very possible he could be cooked, and that everything would fall apart at once, it's also quite likely that isn't the case. The way things stand for the Twins, Colon is as little of a risk as you can possibly get. They pay him a prorated portion of the league minimum, or just over $200k for the rest of the year. He's not a long term solution, but expecting him to provide valaue is a decent bet. Given the financial implications are next to moot, being a contributor in a rotation that so badly needs it would be a huge boost. Maybe Colon needed a change of scenery. He'll get a much better defense in Minnesota (the Twins rank 7th in MLB in DRS, Braves are 24th), and he'll get a better team as a whole. The Twins aren't serious playoff contenders, but there's a shot, and that gives Colon something to play for as well. If none of it works out and things go up in flames, neither side is out much, and can move on. For Minnesota though, Colon could represent a boost the club desperately needs. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

While Twins fans are aware of his power, he's not going to be favored against Judge or Stanton, and maybe not even Bellinger.

He hit 5, didn't make it out of the first round.

When Miguel Sano was named to the home run derby, I imagined an event with a handful of young stars. Right now, major league baseball is being paced by that type of talent in the long-ball department. The field has some interesting inclusions, Sano, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Cody Bellinger, making the event must-watch television. The question is, can the fifth-seeded Sano take home the prize?Competing before him, the Twins have watched both Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier scuffle in the competition, while Justin Morneau won it as a footnote to Josh Hamilton’s output. If Sano is going to win it, he’ll have to travel a difficult road, and the competition stacks the odds against him. Not ruling out an upset victory from the likes of Gary Sanchez, Mike Moutakas, Justin Bour or Charlie Blackmon, the four aforementioned names seem to be where the focus should remain. Figuring out just how well Sano stacks up against the trio of Stanton, Judge and Bellinger could lead us to some sort of conclusion on Monday night. Having led the major leagues in average exit velocity for most of the year, Sano has routinely hit the ball hard. Now sitting at 94 mph in second place, he trails only Judge’s 96.3mph. Both Stanton and Bellinger find themselves further down the leaderboard at 90.9 and 90.2 mph respectively. When putting out max effort however, Judge and Stanton pace the big leagues with max exit velocities of 121.1 and 118.7 mph on the season. Sano’s high water mark is 114.6 mph while Bellinger’s is 112.8. In the derby though, the test is both endurance and strength. You’d be hard pressed to find an argument against Sano being the strongest of the group, but coming in around 260 pounds, his fitness will likely be tested to a greater extent than the likes of the leaner Stanton, Bellinger and Judge. With the new rules dictating players routinely swing in a timed format, getting a rhythm, and not over exerting on outs is an absolute must. While you can toe the line between getting the added bonus for distance, you also can’t set yourself up for failure by launching straight moonshots. During game situations this season, Sano actually holds the lowest percentage of fly balls that leave the yard among the group. His 26.7% is 11th in MLB, trailing Judge’s insane 41.4%, Bellinger’s 29.6%, and Stanton’s 27.7%. In a derby format, he’ll obviously need to hope something like 80% of the balls he puts in the air leave the yard. If you’re going to drive the ball far, you’ll also have to hit it hard. Per Fangraphs, Sano owns the fifth best hard% in the majors this season. His 47.7% number is behind Judge’s 49.5%, but ahead of both Bellinger’s 45.5% and Stanton’s 35.8% mark. Despite being another category that tips the scales in Judge’s favor, Stanton fares well here in regard to his competition. Maybe the final part of the equation is the actual location of the Derby itself. Being hosted in Miami, Miguel Sano has never had a big league at-bat in Marlins Park. Per ESPN’s 2017 Park Factors, Marlins Park checks in as the fifth most pitcher friendly ballpark in the big leagues. That’s on par with Camden Yards, Busch Stadium, Citi Field and Minute Maid. Target Field ranks as the third most hitter friendly ballpark this year. Of the similarly playing ballparks to Marlins Park, Sano has only played in at least 5 career games at Camden Yards and Minute Maid. While the .884 OPS and three homers in 41 at-bats at Camden Yards shows nicely, Sano has just a .297 OPS and zero homers in 23 at-bats in Houston. Realistically speaking, it’s foolish to extrapolate game data to a slugging competition. Despite that not being the exact intention, it’s interesting to see what the sluggers'offensive production has looked like relative to the home run. We may not know anything more about Sano’s chances based upon this data, but we can gain a further understanding of his power ability as a whole. Come July 10, and the commencement of the actual Home Run Derby, the wondering will be laid to rest. Given the fact he’ll likely be facing long odds, Sano is a solid bet. However, this still appears to be a race between the defending champ in Stanton, and the Yankees phenom Judge. Click here to view the article

Glad to see someone get this question asked and discussed. The glorification is a good, and necessary thing.

Assuming the production continues, Mauer is far more valuable than Hunter was on the field at that point in his career.

I'd be far from thrilled about an extension, but I have no problem going year by year for around $10m.

Ervin Santana has been the talk of baseball in the first half of the 2017 Major League season. He has bucked his career trends and been among the games best starters. While there has been some slipping of late, against the Los Angeles Angels, Santana recorded his 4th complete game of the season. Unfortunately he ends up on the wrong side of the decision, only to highlight the uselessness of the pitcher win. For the past few years, there's been any number of talking heads that have pointed out baseball's dated numbers. From statistics such as Wins to saves, and ERA to batting average, we're at a place in the game where we can more accurately understand it. In the tilt between the Twins and the Angels on July 5th, we saw more than a few of those useless statistics in play. First and foremost, Santana's complete game comes into focus. It was his fourth of the 2017 season, meaning he's already thrown more as an individual, than any other team in baseball. Across the 9.0 innings he worked, Angels hitters tallied 7 hits and 2 runs while walking twice and striking out five times. Throwing 80 of his 117 pitches for strikes, Santana was economical, and largely sharp on the evening. When the dust settled though, the win went to Angels rookie Parker Bridwell. Bridwell was fantastic in his own right, but threw three less innings before handing the game over to his relievers. Then there's the double whammy of how Santana lost his opportunity, and it hurt his line as well. With Cameron Maybin at 3rd base and Kole Calhoun at 1st, the Angels made Minnesota look like an aloof bunch of high schoolers. Calhoun broke for second, and Minnesota Catcher Jason Castro fired all the way through to second. Neither Brian Dozier nor Eduardo Escobar acted as if there was a steal play on to cut the ball off and throw home. Maybin has plenty of speed, and he made it home easily as the Twins essentially gave him the run. All of this took place while Santana stood on the mound and watched, being credited with an earned run. Looking back at that series of events as a whole, it couldn't be more clear why surface stats have been now aided by a further dive into what takes place on the diamond. ERA is hardly the be-all-end-all for a pitcher. Given the discretion of an official scorer, a pitcher is at the mercy of interpretation. In this instance, that run was much more Castro, Dozier, and probably even Paul Molitor's fault than it was the pitcher's. In allowing that runner to cross the plate Minnesota's run in the bottom of the 7th just drew Santana closer, but didn't lead to him having an opportunity to get the win. Baseball Prospectus' Aaron Gleeman tweeted out after last night's game that Bert Blyleven owns the most complete game losses in Twins history with 45. While that seems like a staggering number (and it is), what's worse is how good he was in those games. he went on to highlight that while Bert went 0-45 in those games, he posted an ERA of 2.99. So, Blyleven was exactly as good as Santana has been all of 2017 as a whole (his ERA currently sits at 2.99) and gave his Minnesota teams 9 innings, just to be tagged with a loss each time. I can understand why needing to pin the win or loss on a pitcher is a necessary practice. With that being said, there should absolutely be the caveat that the weight it carries is minimal at best, and rarely indicative of the game's actual flow. When pitchers are being decided upon for awards at the end of the season, the win stat is one often pointed to. Last year's AL Cy Young winner was 22-game winner Rick Porcello. Given the landscape of options in 2016, he was far from an egregious choice, but it was likely that win total that tipped the scales for him over the equally (or maybe more) deserving Justin Verlander. At the end of the day, Ervin Santana twirled a gem for no less than the fourth time in 2017. He wasn't credited with a statistic saying as much and his overall numbers suffered due to a gaffe he had nothing to do with. All baseball statistics aren't created equal, and the more we challenge the validity of each, the better understanding we will have. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I'd imagine you also are the person that left this comment on Off The Baggy correct? Very spot on assessment, and couldn't agree more!

34 years old and in the second to last season of his eight-year deal with the Minnesota Twins, Joe Mauer has given the organization a brand new opportunity. Despite being sapped from the sure-fire Hall of Fame trajectory he was on as a catcher, Mauer has mostly scuffled at first base. In 2017 though, there's a different narrative beginning to emerge. In his current form, Mauer presents some intriguing value to the Twins. The knock on Mauer at first base has always been that he doesn't hit for enough power to play the corner spot. While that's a fair assessment, he's turned into a premier defender. He's absolutely worthy of a Gold Glove in 2017, and should've been more in the conversation a season ago had he played in enough games to qualify. While the defensive metrics may be fickle, the vast majority tip the scales in his favor. All of that is for another time however, this new opportunity is about Joe Mauer the hitter. Owning a career .308/.390/.444 slash line, Mauer likely won't be putting up the slugging percentage of his career average any time soon. However, he's shown that when healthy and given regular rest, he's still not someone opposing pitchers should want to face in 2017. On the season, his .287/.360/.404 slash line is the best mark he's posted since the last time he was an All-Star, in 2013. More impressively yet, Mauer's numbers under the hood are relatively gaudy. It's been a talking point for some time that the lefty has declined greatly against similarly-handed pitchers. In 2017, Mauer has 67 plate appearances against lefties, and he owns a paltry .542 OPS. Against righties however, he's slashed .305/.381/.448 with all five of his home runs, 15 of his 17 doubles, and driven in 26 of his 33 RBI. There's really no other way to put it, Mauer remains a menace against right-handed pitching. At 34, Mauer isn't the same hitter that used to draw walks more often than he struck out. That streak all but ended in 2012. However his 14.6 K% ranks 35th in MLB, and only Dustin Pedroia has a lower (3.8%) SwStr% than the Twins first basemen (4.0%). After topping out at 112 strikeouts during 2015, Mauer is at just 45 through the club's first 83 games, putting him on pace for an acceptable 88 (lowest since 2012). Diving a bit further into the output, Mauer's 34.6 Hard% is the best mark he's posted since 2012, and while he's going the opposite way more often than any season since 2014, he's putting the ball in the air more often (27.6%) than any season dating back to 2009 (29%). At this point, we know groundballs aren't the way to sustainable success in the big leagues, and Mauer has created a perfect storm for himself. While highlighting the good side of things may seem self serving, the reality, at least to a certain extent, is that's exactly the point. The Twins have an opportunity going forward to be self serving with Mauer. I'd love it if he could pick up the hardware this season and win a Gold Glove. A year from now however, putting him into a full time platoon with a right handed first basemen (with a bit bigger power bat), makes all the sense in the world. Rather than having an above average answer to part of the equation, they'd immediately have a true threat at first base. We have seen (and probably should've known) that Kennys Vargas is nothing more than a bench bat in a best case scenario. ByungHo Park is starting to turn things around at Triple-A, but there hasn't been much power there, and a handful of question marks still remain. One of the most often called for things off of the Twins bench is a right handed power bat; killing two birds with one stone by asking that player to be a first basemen seems like an ideal scenario. If there's a necessary caveat to mention in all of this, it's that there's not a ton of options when it comes to lefty-mashing first basemen. Of the impending free agents, you're left with a list of Mike Napoli and Mark Reynolds. The former was a Twins target that's been awful in 2017, and the latter has reverse splits, hitting righties far better (and also has to beat the skepticism of hitting outside of Coors Field). Regardless of how this narrative plays out, what is certain is that Joe Mauer has given the Twins an opportunity. They can upgrade first base production by pairing him with a partner. He isn't going to sign another long term deal following this contract, but being kept around on short deals after it, he's an asset as opposed to a former aging vet like Torii Hunter may have been. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Looking at the Minnesota Twins 25-man roster, there are some easy-to-spot-disparities. Of course the team could use another top-tier starter, and they’re without an impact arm or two in the pen. If there’s a place that opportunity doesn’t abound however, it’s in the outfield. Right now, that’s to the detriment of minor leaguer Zack Granite. As he continues to tear up Triple-A though, the Twins will be tasked with making him fit.On the year, Granite is batting an insane .371/.423/.510 across 49 games for Triple-A Rochester. Over the month of June he’s turned it on even more, slashing .486/.541/.69 through the 27th. Despite being a speed- and defense- type player, Granite has looked the part of a real threat with his bat, and the results haven’t been cheap infield hits or bunt singles. While the sample size may be small, Granite is coming off a solid 2016 in which he was named the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year, and he’s beginning to force the big club’s hand. At the major league level, Granite figures to find himself in a rotational role with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Eddie Rosario. The picture may have been clearer just a few weeks ago. As Rosario has continued his free-swinging tendencies, he owned just a .676 OPS through June 11. On one of his patented hot stretches, Rosario has turned in a .432/.479/.818 slash line across his last 14 games to raise his yearly OPS up to .795. What was once a player who looked like a demotion might have been coming, is now a guy who’s distanced himself from that notion. Buxton and Kepler both have their deficiencies as well. For Byron, the bat continues to lag. However, the defense has been so exceptional, that even while owning an OPS in the low .600’s over the past few months, he remains above replacement level. The Twins center fielder is well on his way to a Gold Glove, and remains a lineup fixture because of it. Kepler has lost time to lefties, but has turned in a solid season thus far. While he has dealt with a bit of a slide lately, he’s not in a position to significantly lose time. For Granite, that puts the Twins in an odd spot. All three outfield positions are spoken for, but he’s clearly demonstrated he can be an asset as well. Navigating playing time will take some work, but there’s a scenario that seems to make a lot of sense: make Robbie Grossman the every day designated hitter. On the season, Grossman has been the Twins greatest on-base asset. Sure, he doesn’t hit for the power of a prototypical DH, but he has the ability to drive the gaps, flashes some speed, and can be an extra runner on the basepaths. While this would take away the role of Kennys Vargas, it’s not an incredible loss given the slide he’s taken in 2017. Vargas then becomes your backup first basemen, and a bench bat. Given the switch-hitting ability, albeit a lesser one as he’s struggled mightily against lefties, he profiles as a guy who, from either side ,with one swing, can lose a ball in the seats. With the shuffle in the lineup, Minnesota would have the opportunity to get Granite no less than three starts per week. Right now, Paul Molitor sits Max Kepler against lefties due to his .440 OPS against them. Granite has compiled a .768 OPS against lefties and can hit pitchers from both sides at an above-average clip. When Buxton needs a day off, it’s Granite who would easily the next best option in center. And Rosario needs rest days as well. Throw in another start for a guy slumping or an attempt to make it two in a row, and the Twins have a pretty clear path for a near every-day spot to hand to Granite. Making the roster fit, the Twins would need to clear a spot on the 25-man. Keeping Vargas as a bat-first backup first basemen, the club could thank Ehire Adrianza and send him on his way. Despite being applauded for his glove, Adrianza was always going to be a difficult pairing with Eduardo Escobar. The Twins long-time utility man can play more positions (even if at a lesser defensive ability), and he has a solid hit tool as well. Escobar backs up all over the diamond, and the Twins then no longer have a glove-only player on the bench. Regardless of how the shuffle is made, Minnesota is nearing a decision-making crossroads when it comes to Granite. He’s clearly advanced beyond the constraints of Triple-A, and it appears he can help the big league club. An organization doesn’t want to see a prospect get bored at an unchallenging level, but they also can’t sacrifice the construction at the top just to make the pieces fit. If the Twins get creative, they can absolutely add a solid bat and plus defender to an already improved team. Zack Granite has been putting in work at Triple-A, and it appears he’s ready for his next challenge. Click here to view the article

For years I tuned into the Home Run Derby during All Star Week of the Major League Baseball season. In the days prior, I planned to make it a must see TV event, and always made sure the schedule was blocked out. When the festivities came to Target Field, I was there in person to take in the slugging spectacle. Each year though, I walked away feeling a bit empty. Then 2015 happened. After years of wondering how to spice up the event, I became convinced Major League Baseball hit gold. In putting a timer on each participant, the goal was to hit bombs quickly. You could still launch them, as it would give you bonus points, but liners served a purpose as well. An event that had become stale due to batters watching for the perfect pitch, was once again rejuvenated with some extra flair. In 2016, the field featured somewhat of a darkhorse in hometown team product Wil Myers. Then there were boppers like Giancarlo Stanton and Mark Trumbo. Past participant Todd Frazier was back, and he looked to knock off Stanton in the final round. When the dust settled though, it was the Marlins slugger who powered his way, with some moonshots sprinkled in, to a total of 61 dingers through the three rounds. No one watching could have walked away from the event with anything but excitement for what had just taken place. Fast forwarding to this season, it's hard not to get excited about what we may see on Monday July 10. Stanton has already announced he'll defend his crown, and it's been reported that the Twins Miguel Sano will also take place. Throw in the possibility of Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, and you have an amazing combination of strength, as well as youth, to put on display. The derby itself caters to those with endurance. It's no doubt a workout having to swing the bat that hard, that often, in that short of a time span. Returning hitters like Stanton find an upper hand in knowing what to expect, but you'd be hard pressed to find people willing to be against other names in that type of a star studded field. It's what they've all done to this point in the season however, that may make everything that much more exciting. For the majority of 2017, Miguel Sano has paced Major League Baseball in average exit velocity. Recently relinquishing that lead, he now trails only Aaron Judge. The Yankees rookie right fielder leads baseball in longballs with 27, and the Dodgers young star Bellinger check in right behind him with 24. Although Stanton (20) and Sano (18) don't have quite the numbers of the top two, there's no denying their ability to put some distance between a ball and home plate. Digging a bit deeper into the statistics, there's even more numbers to suggest that this foursome could put on a show. Per Fangraphs, Sano ranks first in MLB among hard hit % (50%). Bellinger is second at 49% and Judge is tied for 5th at 48.3%. Then there's the HR/FB ratio, where each of the four players ranks in the top 15. Judge paces baseball (41.5%), Bellinger checks in 3rd (32.4%), Sano finds himself 11th (26.9%), and Stanton is 13th (25.6%). That all of these guys are hitting the ball out of the yard on one of four fly balls during a game, only raises expectations of what they can do in a derby scenario. While we have to wait and see in regards to a full participant list, there's no doubt baseball fans should be clamoring for each of these guys to show up. The Future's Game and All Star Game itself will be fun this season, but it's this Derby that could end up topping them all. The groundwork was laid back in 2015 with the event itself returning to relevancy, now the sport has a cast list it can select that would be nothing short of A-listers. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

There is no player on the Minnesota Twins roster who has been more polarizing in 2017 than Byron Buxton. The former top prospect in all of major league baseball, Buxton has struggled mightily at the plate. The Mendoza Line has gone from unreachable to home, and he's flirted with any number of stance tweaks. For everything that's been an issue at the plate though, his value has remained high because of his play everywhere else.On April 20, Buxton bottomed out at .082 on the season. He owned a .280 OPS (yes, somehow) and hitting for any sort of respectable mark looked like a longshot. Since that date, he's played in 56 games for the Twins. Over that time, he's compiled a .234/.311/.339 line equating to a .650 OPS. He has nine extra base hits, four of which have been homers. He's struck out 55 times, and drawn 19 walks. In a vacuum, that line leaves plenty to be desired. Batting at the bottom of the order and given what else he brings to the table however, Buxton is more than a valuable asset to the Twins. Arguably the easiest thing to note when it comes to Buxton's game is speed. It's visible to the naked eye, and something that's generally accepted across the game. Recently however, Statcast introduced a sprint speed metric, that has Buxton as the second fastest player in all of baseball (thanks Billy Hamilton). When comparing to his peers, he absolutely flies, and that's apparent whether on the base paths or in the field. Download attachment: Capture.PNG Through the first half of the season, Buxton has swiped 13 stolen bases, being thrown out just once. Getting on base more would obviously produce more opportunities, but he's essentially a double when he reaches first. BsR (base runs above average) puts him at 3.8 on the season, putting him on pace to nearly double his 5.8 BsR from 2016. It's all gravy at this point though when you look at Buxton's offensive game. His prowess on defense has become so valuable, that it all but negates the fact he's a .200 hitter. Despite being a significantly negative player offensively, the defensive ability has him grading out at 0.2 fWAR. While not being significantly above replacement level, it's that defense that helps to supplement a Twins team so desperately needing him. Through 75 games, Buxton has been worth 16 DRS (defensive runs saved). That is the highest total in baseball for any position, in either league. He leads all centerfielders, and is 5 DRS ahead of second place Kevin Kiermaier of the Rays. A season ago, Kevin Pillar led the position at 21 DRS. When the dust settles on 2017, Buxton is paced for a 35 DRS mark. Examining a bit further, it's not hard to see why Buxton is able to save so many runs. Range is something that is not easily quantifiable, but has begun to be measured by a few different outlets. RngR (range runs), which calculates the number of runs above average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity (per Fangraphs), has Buxton at 3.9 or third in MLB behind just Odubel Herrera and Ender Inciarte. Balls hit to the gaps at Target Field, or any outfield that Buxton patrols, simply go to die when he is after them. Since 2015, Statcast has been tracking catch probability. With 2017 being the first season as a regular for Buxton, he's shown incredibly well on that leaderboard. 4 star catches are defined as having a less than 50% chance of being made. The Twins centerfielder leads all big leaguers with 14 such catches. He is also 14 of 15 in those opportunities, putting him at 93.3% or firstl among players with at least 10 chances. The Twins centerfielder being able to be on the right side of a coin flip 93% of the time is something any gambler would take. That leads us to those gamblers, the Twins pitchers. Starters have fared better than relievers on the season, but that's buoyed significantly by Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana. Three Twins starters, with at least 10 starts (Gibson, Mejia, Santiago), have posted high FIP numbers. Of the group, only Gibson's ERA (6.23) is above his FIP (5.60). Both Mejia (5.86 FIP) and Santiago (6.11 FIP) have been bailed out by a defense that has taken away hits for them. In fact if you throw in Phil Hughes' 5.40 FIP across 9 starts, and Ervin Santana's 4.58 FIP across 16 starts, only Jose Berrios' 3.37 FIP across 9 starts is truly a respectable number. Putting a bow on the discussion, and summarizing Buxton as a whole, the Twins would be far worse off without him than with him scuffling at the bottom of the lineup. Sure, there has to be hope that at his best, he's more than a .650 OPS hitter. If that's all he is however, it can't be overstated how important he is to this club. Barring Minnesota running out a rotation comprised solely of Jose Berrios or better type pitchers, they will forever need assets in the field. Building around a player like Buxton is a pretty good place to start. Oh, and as an aside, Buxton may also be the poster boy when it comes to the value of advanced analytics. Anyone can visibly see that he's valuable defensively. Understanding just how valuable (like, the best defensive outfielder in baseball by quite a bit), is a bit easier to see with some numbers to shape the conversation. Click here to view the article

John pointed out an answer of Blayne's and had me check on it. He mentioned being on the golf course with his buddies when he got the call. Blayne confirmed that was Tuesday morning. The Twins obviously made sure they had his number right before picking him at 76 on Day 2.

With their second round pick in the 2017 Major League Baseball draft, the Minnesota Twins selected a right handed pitcher out of high school in Canada. Landon Leach may not yet be a household name on the mound, and it's a position he's still growing into, but the Twins see him as a rotation fixture for the future. Having just transitioned from behind the plate to the mound in the past two years, Leach remains raw on the bump. Shoving a 95+ mph fastball however, there's plenty of reason to be excited about the Twins prep star from Toronto. Now having signed his contract, he's just days away from beginning his pro career down in Fort Myers with the Gulf Coast League Twins.Before he kicks off the next phase of his baseball life, I caught up with Landon Leach to ask a few questions. --------------------------------------------------------- Off The Baggy: Let's start with the organization, what is your knowledge of the Twins and Minnesota at this point? Landon Leach: During my first showcase as a pitcher (at 15), Walt Burrows (Twins Canadian Scout) came up to me and was saying positive things about my body type and that they'd keep in touch in the future. That ended up being true as he's the one who signed me. That was really the first contact I had with the Twins. My visit to Minneapolis and Target Field was just a great experience. It's a very nice city; very quiet compared to Toronto, I found. I have much more knowledge now about the organization than before the draft. OTB: Describe your pitching presence to me. What pitches do you throw? What do you rely on? How do you attack hitters? LL: This is actually just my second year pitching, after moving from catcher. My pitches are fastball (4 and 2 seam), changeup, and slider. I can reach 96 with my fastball, so I can rely on that. My out pitch is my slider, which is above average. My changeup is still in the making, just need to perfect it for strikes. Having been used to coming out of the pen, I'll soon get used to starting. I'm going to need to attack hitters with my fastball, and as the lineup turns over, I'll need to change looks and use offspeed stuff. OTB: Being from Canada, are you a Justin Morneau fan, or who are some of your big league influences? LL: Actually, Morneau was one of my coaches for my team Canada trip. I know him fairly well, definitely a great player for the Twins. I feel like my game right now, my body and my arm angle, I'm more of a Corey Kluber kind of guy. I like how he pitches and what he does for his team. OTB: In making the leap to pro ball, what's the area of your game you think is going to set you a part? What requires the most work yet? LL: Most amount of work, like I said, I haven't pitched many innings. Getting more innings under my belt is going to be the early focus. I feel like a strength is that I've played against many professional players having been with team Canada. We've gone to extended spring training and instructional leagues to against guys from the Dominican and Cuba, so I have a good idea what the level of competition looks like. I feel comfortable playing against those types of players. OTB: What's the one thing you want Twins fans to know about you as a person, and also as a pitcher? LL: I love when people interact with me face to face. I've had a lot of support in my classroom and school, and seeing Twins fans continue that support would be great. As a baseball player, I'd do anything to get to the major leagues. The work ethic is there, and I'll do anything for my teammates. --------------------------------------- Ready to get going down in Fort Myers, Leach is going to be a player that's absolutely worth keeping an eye on in the coming years. As he continues to grow into a pitcher as a professional, it will be exciting to watch the Twins organization help him come into his own. He should be making starts in short order for the GCL squad, and seeing him rise the ranks is something Twins Territorians can get behind. Click here to view the article

I guess I felt like Royce had really professional and mature answers, especially for a teenager. Comparing to previous years, I think both Royce and Brent provided some really solid feedback.

When the Major League Baseball draft commenced in early June, the only certainty was that the Minnesota Twins would make the first selection. As the dust settled and prep phenom Royce Lewis was the pick, Minnesota immediately had a new name atop their prospect rankings.Lewis, a star shortstop and outfielder, is regarded as being the most polished high school position prospect in the draft. Noted for his maturity as well as his athleticism, he should immediately step into the Twins system and find success. I had the privilege of catching up with him following the draft, and touched on a few different subjects to get to know him a bit better. Here's what he had to say: Off The Baggy: What was your draft day experience like? Royce Lewis: I was in Studio City, CA at my grandparents house with my family. We went into the day without expectations, just excited about the potential opportunity. OTB: Did you have an inclination early in the day the Twins might be looking to take you at 1/1? RL: I absolutely did not have any idea that the Twins would select me. I had many conversations with them, however I had conversations with all of the teams. I never doubted my abilities and what I could bring to an organization, but you just never know what will happen, what a team is looking for, or what their needs are. OTB: Playing both shortstop and the outfield, your athleticism shines on the diamond. What do you feel your strengths are at both positions? Do you prefer one? RL: I am very athletic with great speed and reactions. Having baseball instincts and the ability to read the ball off the bat well, I have an edge to make plays that others may not at both positions. I have never had much formal training at either position. Basically I have relied on my athleticism to do things take over, so with daily training at either or both (positions) I am excited to see where it takes me. I love being up the middle because I feel I can help the team at both, however I prefer shortstop because I feel that I am a natural leader and at shortstop I am able to be involved more in the game. The position is naturally a position which is a leader on the field, so I would be able to help the team to get wins and championships. OTB: Tell us about your hitting approach? Are you a gap power guy, or is speed on the basepaths your thing? RL: My approach to hitting is that I look for a pitch to drive. I believe I can offer all three: power, gap to gap, and speed. I just turned 18 on June 5th and have not reached my full potential or growth. Again I look forward to the daily training and facing the best pitching teams have to offer. I feel I am at my best when being challenged. One of my strengths as a hitter is that I am very good with two strikes. OTB: Making the jump from high school to the professional ranks, what do you see being your biggest challenge? What will help to set you apart? RL: My biggest challenge will be playing with the best of the best every day, but this is my dream and I look forward to working hard to challenge myself to always try to be better than the day before. Everything only happens with determination and hard work and I am determined and will work hard every day, this is what will set me apart. The fact that I am always a student of the game, whether I am in the game or watching others play, there is always an opportunity to learn something which will help better my game. OTB: Being from California, what is your knowledge of Minnesota and the Twins organization? Have you been to Target Field previously? RL: I had never been to Minnesota before the Twins organization flew my family and me out for the weekend. It is such a beautiful and clean city. I love that the fan base is so big with Minneapolis, St. Paul, and the surrounding areas. It is great that the Twin Cities have 6 professional teams in one area (baseball, football, basketball, hockey, soccer, and women's basketball), so many cool things to be a part of and support. My family and I love the state motto "Minnesota Nice." I feel that I will fit in perfect with that as I am a nice guy who will give everything I have to be successful in all that I do while helping others along the way. I am grateful for the opportunity to be a part of such an amazing organization. Target Field was incredible, it is one of the best stadiums I have been in and I love that you can maneuver through the downtown area in the skyways without going outside. That is really cool, we do NOT have stuff like that in California! OTB: Who's a pro player, past or present, that you may have modeled your game after or look up to? RL: I have always looked up to Derek Jeter because he played the game the right way both on and off the field. I also look to Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor because they are really really good and always seem to be enjoying the game and making it fun! When you love what you do, you will be more successful at what you are doing no matter what it is and for me it is the game of baseball. However, I really hope to just be me, to be "Royce Lewis" and hopefully one day people will look to be like me because I am a great person and player who makes the game fun in all the right ways. It is good to look to others for advice and tips to better yourself but in the end you have to be you and make you.... "the best you can be"!!! With a long journey ahead, Royce appears to have a great head on his shoulders, and be well positioned to climb through the organization. As the GCL season gets underway, Twins fans will have a chance to see it begin to come together. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz Click here to view the article