Andrew Bryzgornia

Out of the guys you named, I'm going to predict Celestino. I think with his CF defense, he'll get plenty of reps just so the coaching staff can see what he can do and who knows, he might get hot with the stick during spring training. Also, minor quibble: His name is Tzu-Wei Lin, not Tsu-Wei.

I don't agree with your take about Shoemaker's 2-seamer and splitter following an organizational trend. The slider definitely is, as we can see with all the minor reliever signings and waiver claims they've made, but I don't feel you have sufficient evidence for the other two pitches. You cited Odorizzi and Maeda throwing more sinkers after they joined the Twins. According to Texas Leaguers (my favorite pitchF/X source), Odorizzi has thrown a single 2-seamer since 2018, and that one even looked like a mislabeled 4-seamer. Maeda threw 2-seamers a whole 6% of the time last year. I will concede that it is true that he used his 2-seamer and 4-seamer "more evenly" last year (6% and 20% in 2020 compared to 3.6% and 33% in 2019, respectively) but it was more due to a reduction in his 4-seamer (and increase in his slider usage, 32% in 2019 to 42% in 2020) rather than a pronounced increase in his 2-seamer usage. Also, this "clear organizational preference for two-fastball approaches" seems false, even if you're including Colome and his 4-seamer/cutter combo. Shoemaker, Colome, and Berrios are the only pitchers that immediately come to mind as featuring two fastballs, and upon further review, we can also include Happ (4-seamer: 42.6%, 2-seamer: 22.5% last year) and Dobnak (but his 4-seamer was only thrown 4.4% of the time last year). If we include the non-roster invitees with major league experience, there's Albers (4-seamer: 25%, 2-seamer: 40% in 2017, his last major-league season) and that's it. This regime also had Duffey stop throwing his 2-seamer rather than use it more, even though anecdotally I felt it had incredible movement. Five pitchers and one NRI out of 13 or 14 that will be on the Opening Day roster doesn't feel like an organizational trend. I feel similarly about citing Shoemaker's splitter as being a "clear affinity" for the coaching staff. You mentioned him, Maeda, Bailey, and Odorizzi. I'll admit, there was also Clippard last season, Blake Parker in 2019, and Oliver Drake in 2018, but that's only a couple more pitchers over the past 3 years. It doesn't feel like an organizational trend when there's only a handful of pitchers fitting the mold over the past few years. I apologize for being overly critical, but this article came off as claiming that the Twins like 2-seamers, splitters, and sliders, when I only see that trend with slider-throwing pitchers. I don't feel the organization is collecting pitchers that merely feature those pitches, they're collecting pitchers that either have above-average versions of those pitches, or can possibly be coached into improving their repertoires, and I feel that should have been more clear.

My counterargument would be that if you're not hearing people complain about the current system, then you're not looking in the right place. I've seen plenty of baseball people on Twitter and on FanGraphs point out that it makes far more sense to pay the good young rookies more during their most productive years, but MLB isn't set up to reward those players until they've already accumulated 6 years of service time. Surface level argument: It's good to keep your top prospects in the minors to start a season to gain an extra year of control. Deeper argument: It would be better to fix the system so teams don't exploit that anymore.

Park factors are generally calculated by comparing the teams' performances at the ballpark compared to their performances away from that ballpark.

It appears we had different interpretations of "across." Maeby: "Do you know where I can get one of those gold necklaces with a 't' on it?" Michael: "That's a cross." Maeby: "Across from where?"

Back and forth on 94, not 35W.

I feel May is unavailable unless the Twins instantly offered a collection of their top prospects. His stuff is off the charts and I don't think the Dodgers would be quick to part with him. Out of the three mentioned, Price seems the most likely simply due to his contract. If Falvey/Levine can convince Jim Pohlad to eat most of the contract, Price could be acquired with a minimal hit to the farm system.

I like this list, but my thoughts: 1) Simmons has to get more than a 1-year contract. There's no way the best defensive SS in the league, who also has a 99 wRC+ over the past 4 years as he changed his approach for the better at the plate, is getting a 1-year contract. 2) I think you're being a little pessimistic about Hernandez, if he's used correctly. If he's used strictly as a LHP masher (career 120 wRC+), then he's a perfect fit to spell Kepler (74 wRC+), Polanco (89 wRC+), and Arraez (89 wRC+). But if he starts drawing constant starts against RHP (82 wRC+), then there's a problem. I also think $7 million for him is slightly too high. 3) Profar had major throwing problems over 2018-2019 (19 throwing errors in 2018, 11 TE in 2019, all at 2B) and had only 16 starts and 18 total appearances in the infield in 2020 which is likely chasing teams off. 4) This isn't a complete list, but two infield free agents I'd love to have: - Tommy La Stella: Yeah, being a lefty hitter doesn't fit well on this team, but he's been a solid hitter in a reserve role the past 4 years (117 wRC+) and thus is good Arraez/Donaldson insurance if he's willing to start the season as a bench player. Since he doesn't play SS, this makes Tzu-Wei Lin be the Adrianza replacement. - Hanser Alberto: A righty-hitting Arraez that doesn't walk. Also can't play SS, so Lin is still on the roster.

What I recall is that Smith wanted both Ellsbury and Lester from the Red Sox, but they said the Twins could only have one of them in the package for Santana. I don't recall what happened with the Yankees, but like JLease said, it sure felt like Smith was trying to pit the Red Sox and Yankees against each other and instead it blew up in his face. Perhaps Smith was telling the Yankees the Sox were offering Ellsbury and Lester, then the Yanks talked to the Sox and found out that wasn't the case. Also, I would never say the Gomez/Hardy trade was bad. The Twins got a league-average shortstop for one year and they gave up an (at the time) underperforming CF. It just looked bad because both Gomez and Hardy flourished after leaving the Twins, but even the Brewers needed some time to unlock Gomez's potential. Also also, I will never forgive Gardy and the Twins for mishandling Hardy. He hurt his wrist, still had an average season offensively for a shortstop while playing good defense, the Twins decided Hardy was a disappointment and shipped him off for Hoey/Jacobsen and sign Nishioka, and then Hardy's wrist received better treatment while with the Orioles and he returned to being a top shortstop. It's no wonder that "total system failure" resulted.

1) If a projection specifically focused on just the prior year, it would be a bad projection. It has to use multiple years of data, which is why we get that noise with the projected bullpen appearances. 2) Szymborski says at the end of every ZiPS post on FanGraphs, "ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design."

Some things I want to point out. 1) The player comps are who that player compares to at that same age in their career. So Polanco's Buddy Bell comp means he is most similar to Bell when Bell was 27 years old. 2) I don't recall where it was, but the ZiPS creator, Dan Szymborski, commented on FanGraphs relatively recently that projections are typically pessimistic towards pitchers simply because they get hurt so often. I personally prefer the Steamer projections, and they put many average pitchers at the 4.50 - 5.00 ERA range, mainly because the league average ERA is around 4.50. (For example, they have Maeda at a 4.43 ERA in 2021). Even with the 4.12 ERA projection from ZiPS, that's still better than the 2020 league average ERA of 4.45. I'm assuming it's because the majority of his career was in the NL, which has pitchers hitting, so there should be regression simply from the change in leagues and having to face DHs. But, also, because pitchers get hurt. Additionally, yeah, the bullpen appearance projection for Maeda is a little goofy since he's no longer in LA, but that's one of those things that a computer isn't going to know. The algorithm sees Maeda as a sorta-swingman when really he's now a full-time starter. Szymborski should probably make an edit for Maeda, but then we get into the territory of arguing that edits should be done for other players too, and then you're moving away from the point of a computer projection, which is supposed to be fully objective. 3) Don't take projections that seriously. It's like meteorology, it's just an educated guess using past experience to attempt to predict the future. It's best to use multiple projection systems to get an overall idea, but it's even better to not get worked up about anything that looks wrong.

I'm not putting a lot of energy into caring about Gibaut and Waddell. They were added as waiver claims and could easily be removed from the 40-man without much worry. Gibaut might actually stick, but Waddell is redundant with Rogers and Thielbar already ticketed for the active roster and thus I assume they'll attempt to pass him through waivers when the time becomes necessary.

True, but $2 million is still really cheap. Robles definitely isn't as bad as his 2020 season, and he's not as good as his 2019. I don't think it's right to look at Robles as a Romo or Clippard replacement, I think he's more likely a Wisler replacement. Also, I bet Falvey/Levine will consider his signing a win if he maintains a 3.70 ERA or better next season.

A platoon requires the two players to bat on opposite sides of the plate. Garver and Jeffers are both righthanded hitters, so them splitting time isn't a "platoon." That's why Avila was signed last year, because he was lefthanded in addition to being a good game-caller and framer.

Adam Duvall comes to mind off the top of my head.