diehardtwinsfan

I like doing prospect lists sometime after the draft and after some rookie ball has been played. In part because it's a bit of a slow time of the year in the minor league forums and in the last few years, it's been relatively slow in the major league forums. This is a link to my top 25 from last season. Most of these guys are still in the system, and that has a lot to do with the fact that they were mostly excelling at the lower levels. That has changed with a lot of guys showing good results in AA/AAA, and I suspect Terry Ryan is going to have some interesting offseason choices to make this winter. First, let's start with the graduations:
 
Trevor May (6th) - I've been more of a believer in May then a lot of people. I still think that long term, he could profile as a 1/2 type, though likely more a 2 at this point. His major league season thus far has been pretty successful for his first full year campaign. I suspect over the next couple of season that he will improve on that significantly. Regardless, at this point, May is a nice asset in the rotation and would be coveted by a lot of teams if he was available.
 
Kennys Vargas (10) - I suppose the 1B/DH could still technically flirt with being listed, but after spending most of the second half and a part of this season in the majors, I'm removing him altogether. He definitely still has some work to do, but he's definitely still middle of the order potential. I suspect he will be a full time regular come 2016.
 
Eddie Rosario (11) - Rosario is still a work in progress at the plate, but he's a nice defensive OF and is making enough contact to stay with the club. He's likely to be this year's Danny Santana, and I half expect him to return to the minors at some point, but he's done a good job to remind us why he used to be so highly rated.
Also removed from last year's list was Sean Gilmartin who was released this spring. He was 16th on my list last season and is having a reasonably decent season in his rookie year as a relief pitcher for the Mets. Now for the good stuff:
 
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1) Miguel Sano 3B (2) - Sano continues to be a work in progress at 3B, but his bat is probably pretty close to being ready. He got off to a slow start given the rust, but since the calendar turned to May, his OPS has been greater than .900 and he's hitting plenty of home runs and doubles to continue cementing him as one of the leagues better power hitting prospects. He has plenty of power and excellent plate discipline. He does strike out quite a bit, but he's good at laying off pitches out of the zone and generates quite a few walks as well. His brief trial has gone well enough to say that his bat is ready. His real problem right now is that he's blocked at the major league level. He can probably play some DH in the short term, but in the long term, the Twins need him in the field to make room for Vargas and/or Arcia. Trevor Plouffe is firmly entrenched at 3rd and has been very good. Joe Mauer is at first, and while Mauer hasn't been that good this year, I highly doubt the team moves him. Sano should however, be an immediate, middle of the order impact bat for this team at a position in the league where OPS is weak. In his prime, I suspect he may have a few MVP type seasons and I expect him to be long term fixture on a contending team.
 
2) Byron Buxton CF (1)- Buxton got off to a slow start after missing a season. His defense is pretty good, but he's struggled with breaking pitches. Starting in May, he really turned it on posting an OPS > .900 in AA ball and was called up to the Twins. He struggles more with major league pitching than Sano does, and as such his bat is definitely not ready at this point, but given that no one is really blocking him, he's going to get every opportunity to succeed. The reason why he's still on this list has more to do with a lengthy DL stay that has kept him off the field. That said, I fully expect to see him take a big step forward in 2016, though he may find himself spending some time in AAA at first. Long term, he's likely to be an elite bat and elite glove at a key defensive position. I see him more as a leadoff type, but if his power increases, I could see him becoming a 3 hitter. He could likely have some MVP seasons as well and should be a cornerstone player for a contending team.
 
 
3) Jose Berrios SP (5) - Berrios has done nothing but prove the naysayers wrong. He was a compensation pick out of high school whose biggest knock was size and a relatively flat fastball that kept him from going higher on the lists. He dominated rookie ball, which given his age is a good thing, though his first year in the MWL was nothing special (it wasn't bad, just not that great). In 2014 he really broke out, adding a few ticks to his fastball and even making it up for a brief AAA stint. He returned to AA in 2015 and has been every bit as good, and he was recently promoted to AAA. He has mid 90s speed on his fastball and has excellent control. He strikes out more than a batter per inning. I'm not quite sure he is an ACE, but I do think he will be a very good number 2 at the major league level. His problem at the moment is that the Twins have a bit of a glut in pitching. I know that seems rather odd given the org's history, but as it stands right now, we have too many starters at the major league level and a few decent ones in Rochester as well. I suspect that trades this offseason will free up some space there, but Berrios may have a problem on the ETA front. I'm guessing he ETAs in 2016 as an injury call up and will likely be in the rotation full time at some point in 2017 after the team manages to trade either Nolasco or Santana. This might be the main casualty of the FA spending the front office has done for pitchers as it's going to be hard to work in some of these younger pitchers when Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana are pretty much assured spots and Gibson and May are both pitching well themselves.
 
4) Max Kepler OF/1B (23) - I had soured quite a bit on Kepler because other than a nice stint in rookie ball, he really hadn't done much in terms of production. At this point last year, he had just started to turn a corner in FTM and that could easily be attributed to a small sample. He kept it up for the remainder of the year and has responded to one of the harder minor league jumps by putting on a show in AA all season long being one of their better hitters. While he hasn't been launching home runs all over the place like some of his counterparts, he has speed, some power, and can play all 3 OF positions (though he's probably not an ideal CF). He isn't a huge walk machine, but he also doesn't strike out much either. His K/BB ratio this season in Chattanooga is nearly a 1 to 1 ratio. Kepler has that high ceiling that people covet, and given that he won't be 23 until spring training next year, I think it's likely that he's going to have a very nice major league career. This is his second season on the 40 man, and he has 2 more before he's out of options. I suspect he's likely going to finish up in AAA at some point this season and have the ability to audition for a major league role in 2016. I expect him to see his first call up next year.
 
5) Tyler Jay (unrnk) SP - There's a lot to like from this kid, with his biggest question mark being how his velocity will hold up as a full time starter. He worked primarily as a relief pitcher in college, but this lefty has a 4 pitch mix that could all be plus pitches. He already has a pretty high workload for a college reliever and will finish this season in the relief role, possibly in AA at some point. I expect him to be sent back to FTM this spring and work there as a starter. Like the other pitchers in the top 10, the lefty has top of the rotation potential, especially if he can pitch in the mid 90s (he's currently upper 90s as a reliever). His pitches all leave from the same arm slot giving him a deceptive delivery and making it harder for opposing hitters to pick up on his off speed repertoire.
 
6) Alex Meyer (3) SP/RP - This season has been difficult for Meyer, and I'm willing to give him a pass this year given his potential, but to say it has been disappointing is an understatement. Meyer has high 90s stuff with a devastating off speed pitch and a change up that's a work in progress. His problem has been the dreaded 'consistency', as he's seen his walk rate climb as he moved up the ladder, with things falling a part this season in AAA. He moved to the pen, which I'm assuming is temporary, and has had a bit of a resurgence in Rochester, but he's yet to replicate his season last year, which is not good. I think this is probably worst of it and suspect he'll start to improve a bit, though I suspect he's going to spend a good chunk of 2016 at Rochester again. His biggest problem right now is that he doesn't throw enough strikes. Hopefully he can figure that out as that will be the difference between being an ace or having a major league career.
 
7) Stephen Gonsalves (13) SP - The hard throwing lefty was originally considered to be late first round type talent in the 2013 draft, but fell due to some minor off field issues as well as signability concerns. He's been rather good in the Minnesota system with a career WHIP today of just over 1.0 and a K/9 north of 10. He's a lefty with mid 90s stuff, so at this point, a floor in the pen seems very realistic. Ceiling wise, he has top of the rotation potential. He's just moved to high A, so he has a ways to go before he hits the majors, but he's likely looking at AA at some point next season.
 
8) Kohl Stewart (4) SP - Stewart was pretty good in his first career year in Cedar Rapids last season, though his K rate left a bit to be desired. He hasn't exactly stood out in high A this year, and that K rate has actually been worse this year (though it has been improving of late). That said, he has 4 pitches that are potential plus pitches, has mid 90s heat, and is 20 years old this year, much younger than his counterparts. He's also never really been a full time pitcher, so people need to be a bit more patient with him as he has more to learn than most prospects. But with that in mind, he has top of the rotation potential and should not be ignored. I do think at some point he's going to have to put things together, whether that is through repeating high A next season or continuing to aggressively push him, I'm not sure. I suspect he returns to high A and will be in line for a midseason promotion to AA if things go well. The Twins have another 3 seasons with him before he's a 40 man decision, so there's plenty of time. That said, there are a lot of guys who are succeeding at much higher levels, with similar potential. That's a good thing, and it's also a big reason for his drop. One thing that's been somewhat encouraging, is that he has been striking out more guys of late. Perhaps he's putting it together, who knows. Only time will tell there.
 
9) Chih-Wei Hu (14) SP - Hu was a pleasant surprise last year posting some fairly impressive results for Cedar Rapids, though at age 20, I ranked him a bit lower on the list. Not that 20 is a bad age for the Midwest league, but he there were several younger pitchers also doing quite well in the MWL. Hu responded to the FSL this season by nothing short of sheer dominance, continuing his breakout. He gets plenty of Ks (though he's seen a significant drop in his K rate as the season has worn on) and limits both walks and the long ball quite effectively. From what I've read, the righty throws in the mid 90s with a decent assortment of off speed offerings. High A is a bit of a pitchers haven, so his transition to AA will likely tell us where he's going to ultimately fit on the pecking order, but right now, I still think he can be a top half of the rotation arm, and he has done nothing to dissuade that opinion.
 
10) Jorge Polanco 2B/SS (6) - Perhaps I'm a bit cynical, but I'm not quite as high on Polanco as others. He does get the credit of doing this in an up the middle position, though his defense from what I understand still needs considerable work. To his credit, he's 21 in AAA. He's putting up decent numbers, but not much in terms of power or plate discipline. His OPS, however is nothing special. While that's pretty good for a SS, it's not stand out, high ceiling type and his defense is presently not good enough at the position to make it worthwhile. His other real problem is that he's burned 2 options already. I'm guessing he may be one of those guys eligible for four options, which means he won't be forcing a decision until 2018, at which point he should certainly be ready. He's received 2 very brief call ups, but those were more for emergency situations. I would probably have him finish out the season in AA and then start in AAA next year. I suspect he will receive another call up at some point in 2016, and hopefully for more than an emergency. He may be the SS of the future, but in all honesty, I could see him being dangled with someone else to pickup someone with a bit higher ceiling. While SS is not a strength of the organization, there are options in the high minors and the majors. Eduardo Escobar is putting up league average offensive numbers and playing average to better defense (though for some inexplicable reason, he's not getting as much playing time at SS one would like. Santana and Polanco should be competing for the role extensively, and both of the ability to break out and be an above average player there. From the Twins standpoint, patience may be a virtue as I suspect one of the two of them will eventually claim that role.
 
To summarize the top 10, I'm rather impressed with the fact that only 2 guys on this list do not play up the middle defensive positions. Technically, Sano at 3B still occupies a premium position, just not up the middle, and Kepler could play CF in a pinch, both of whom look like they could potentially play at an elite level at some point in their careers. There are also six pitchers listed, all of whom could slot in as 1-3 type pitchers to complement a young core that already holds two very promising pitchers in Gibson and May. While there is a bit of a glut in a few of these positions, the advantage here is that these guys could be used to net some premium talent at another position of need. With that in mind though, they already have a core of higher ceiling guys in Arcia, Rosario, Gibson, May, and Vargas to complement excellent production from Plouffe and Dozier. This team is likely going to win a lot of games over the next 5-10 seasons and will have both depth to whether injury as well as the ability to acquire help wherever they need it.
 
11) Nick Gordon (7) SS - Last year's number 1 pick has been aggressively moved just like the previous two picks in Buxton and Stewart. Gordon has not done as well. Granted, he's young for his league and has managed to hold his own, but he hasn't impressed much. He's likely to stick at SS, which elevates him quite a bit in the prospect world. To be fair though, he's 19 and in low A. Expecting him to do what Buxton did is probably unfair. Offensively, we saw a nice uptick in his numbers for June and so far in July his OPS is well over .800, so he may be figuring it out. He's probably not going to be the next coming of A-Rod, but an average to slightly above bat playing average to above average defense is still very valuable. His drop here has more to do with the ascension of other prospects and should not be considered an indictment on his play. Granted there's room to go here, but he'd be a very valuable prospect in a number of systems.
 
12) Travis Harrison (16) 3B/LF - Harrison, despite his age, gets little love in the prospect world. He was snubbed for the all star game in AA despite being a very good 3B this season. He's cooled off a bit of late, which is probably part of the reason he gets overlooked, but he's still been a very good performer. He's 22, in AA, holds a career minor league OPS over .750 and keeps his OBP more than .100 points above his average. He has some power to go with it. He's been overshadowed by the likes of Sano, Kepler, and Walker. He has the requisite skills needed to be a major leaguer. His ceiling is an above average major league regular. He probably won't be a star, but it's quite possible that he has an all star type season or two at some point in his career. Given the Twins depth presently, Harrison might find himself with another team at some point, as there really isn't a place to put him if his higher ceiling counter parts can establish themselves.
 
13) Adam Brett Walker (17) RF - Walker is one of the more polarizing prospects at Twins Daily as he has put up some rather gaudy numbers at each stop. He's on pace this year to club more than 30 home runs, which is pretty impressive for a minor leaguer, and he's led his league in home runs for the last couple of seasons. Bottom line, he has 80 raw power. The down side is his inability to take a walk and the fact that he strikes out a lot. Despite posting an OPS over .900 in AA, his peripherals have actually worsened, with a strikeout to walk ratio more than 5 to 1. On one end, AA doesn't seem to be challenging him, but on the other end, he's getting worse in the areas that he needs to be improving. He isn't a 40 man decision until the end of the 2016 season, which is good. I suspect he will remain in AA and start next season in Rochester. How that plays out is yet to be seen. Perhaps he can be that outlier that defies statistics, but I suspect major league pitchers will do a good job exposing those problems. His defense is pretty suspect as well, so carving out a role as a defensive OF won't be happening. Given that he's performing at AA, he likely has a floor as a late inning pinch hit all or nothing type bat, which isn't a bad person to bring in during a high leverage situation where pitchers have to be a bit more careful when they pitch. As a ceiling, there's no question that he can be a star if he figures out those contact issues, but time is not really on his side anymore, as he still is not learning plate discipline.
 
14) Lewis Thorpe (12) SP - Thorpe is another high ceiling prospect who would likely be quite a bit higher on this list had it not been for a UCL injury that required Tommy John surgery. He's out all year after putting together a fairly impressive start for a 17/18 year old in the MWL. His overall numbers weren't spectacular, but when you look at his month to month numbers, you can see improvement. His 18/19 season is lost and he'll start in the MWL again I assume next year. The lefty throws in the mid 90s and could be another top of the rotation arm.
 
15) Tyler Duffey (21) SP - Duffey continues to defy expectations as he moves up the ladder as well as improving on those peripheral stats that we tend to pay attention to. The converted closer probably profiles more as a #3 ceiling, but he's looking more and more to have a back of the rotation floor. These types of guys are pretty valuable. He does have some decent velocity, and has been able to raise his minor league career K rate to around 7.4. His walk rate is pretty miniscule as he's hovered around 2 this season and has a minor league career rate under that number. Now in Rochester, he's another arm that can be counted on for depth and possibly a spot in the rotation.
 
16) Josmil Pinto (8) C - Pinto is the first catcher on this list, and his play this season has been less than impressive. He was kept in AAA to work on his glove, but his bat this season has been pretty bad as well. Given he has a minor league career OPS of over .800, I'm hoping his offensive play this year is simply a victim of some bad luck, recovering from a concussion, and the fact that he's working hard on his glove. I had hoped he would have graduated from this list to be a counter part to Suzuki, but thus far, that hasn't been the plan. At 26, he's not really young anymore and his option status is going to force the Twins to find a spot for him shortly. He should be able to be part of a decent catching tandem, with an obvious bent towards his offense.
 
17) Wander Javier SS (unrnk) - Remember when the Twins signed Miguel Sano and he was instantaneously their top prospect? That alone was a testimony to how bad their farm system was at this point. The Twins made news on July 2nd signing Javier to a team international FA record of $4 million dollars, which will make Javier a very watched prospect. At age 16, there are lots of questions, particularly if he will stick at short, and there's some disagreeing opinions among scouts that have watched him. On the top side, he should be average to above with all of his tools with as many as 3 60 grade tools when he matures. That's pretty good as a SS, as he could be a middle order bat at a premium position. Of course, he's 16 and hasn't played professionally yet, so time tell.
 
18) Taylor Rogers (unrnk) SP - I haven't given Rogers a lot of love due to what I think is a relatively low ceiling (back of the rotation arm), but Rogers continues to perform and owns a career minor league ERA around 3 with a career K/9 around 7. The ERA is standout, which Rogers gets by minimizing hits and walks, essential for any pitcher, but he lacks the swing and miss stuff that makes me think it will play as anything more than a 4/5 type guy in the majors. That said, he's now in AAA and putting up numbers similar to his minor league numbers. At this point I'd say his ceiling is probably a #3, which isn't a bad thing, but he's still more likely to be a 4/5. That said, given his age and performance I think the chance of hitting the floor is pretty high. He's blocked by a lot of guys in the Twins system, so I wouldn't be surprised if his career really takes off with another team. He could also be moved into a relief role as his numbers against lefties stand out. It's possible that this would add a tick or two to his FB and he could be a dominant reliever.
 
19) Mitch Garver (15) C - He got off to a pretty bad start but has really turned it up since June. I'm glad given the fact that catching is pretty weak in the system right now. Garver looks to be a good defensive catcher but can swing the bat a bit. He's not a power guy, but he does keep the OBP up and hit a lot of doubles. That's pretty valuable given how bad ML catchers hit. His first two months were pretty bad, but he cracked an .836 OPS in June and his July OPS is over .700. He may be one of those guys who needs some time to adjust to new levels. AA will be the big test for his bat.
 
20) Nick Burdi (10) RP - Nick Burdi has lost the luster that he had last year in what has definitely been a difficult year for him. While his strike out numbers were good in AA, he was waking a batter every other inning on average and giving up way too many hits to make it work. He brings 100 MPH heat, but as well all know, major league hitters can hit a 100 MPH pitch. That doesn't mean that there's no hope for him. He's been very successful in Fort Meyers since his demotion, and given that the Twins are working on his mechanics he will likely be just fine. What it really means is that he's probably not going to be in the majors this year, and the soonest he will be auditioning for them will be next year. I hold out hope that Burdi will be promoted back to AA at some point this season and will be much better than what he was.
 
Last year, it was said that the 11-20 Twins list would be better than a lot of team's top 10 lists. With graduations (and expected graduations), I don't think this statement will hold true for many teams, except those with dreadful farm systems, but there is some really nice depth here, and this 11-20 list is still quite a bit better than most teams 11-20 lists. It's a nice mix with 4 pitchers, one of whom could be that coveted ace, 2 catchers, a SS, and some OF/3B help as well. A good number of these guys are high enough in the org to guarantee a major league look at some point when the need arises, or command enough value to be shipped away for something. Quite a few have higher ceilings as well, but at this level, there's lots of question marks. The highest ceiling of this section (Thorpe) underwent Tommy John this spring. Walker has impressive power, but his inability to lay off pitches limits the type of impact he will have in the majors. Harrison looks like a Trevor Plouffe type prospect: above average, may take some time to develop, and will likely put up some quietly decent numbers. I suspect some of these guys will take some big steps forward next year, and a couple might even crack some top 100 lists in the coming years.
 
21) JT Chargois (unrnk) RP - In the same mold as Burdi, Chargois can really dial up the heat to around triple digits. He's a tad older and is seeing his first taste of AA (and struggling a bit), but he's another reliever that could conceivably be in Minnesota in shorter order. His career has been thus far plague by injuries, which is largely what has kept him from moving up faster. He gets lots of Ks and keeps the home run rate low, allowing only 1 in 48 career major league innings. Chargois has potential to be a back of the bullpen stud. I expect him to restart in AA and likely be a mid-season promotion to Rochester in 2016.
 
22) Jermaine Palacios (unrnk) SS - During the lean years, a kid like this would be a top 10 prospect. He just turned 19 (July 19), and carries an OPS as a SS over .900 which is pretty impressive, even for a kid in the GCL. Rookie ball stats certainly can be taken with a grain of salt, but there's something to be said about a guy who is doing it when he's younger than his league. Recent examples in our history include Sano, Rosario, and Arcia, all of whom murdered opposing pitches in the GCL. Palacios hasn't been quite that good, but he's been significantly better than the league at an important defensive position. He might yet get a shot in Elizabethon, but will likely be there next year or possibly even the MWL next year.
 
23) Levi Michael (unrnk) 2B - After years of sub par performance, I had largely written the former first round pick off; however, Michael broke out last season and has continued his break out this year in AA posting an OPS over .800 with a keen eye for plate discipline. He doesn't need to be a great hitter to make the majors as a 2B, but he's blocked at the major league level by Dozier and has lots of competition as well. He's a 40 man decision this offseason, and I have a hard time believing he's going to be left exposed, though I could see him packaged as a means to acquire major league help or potentially international FA dollars as there's a bit of a glut at his position. That said, given his performance at AA, he's got a very real chance of making the majors in some capacity.
 
24) Luis Arraez (unrnk) 2B - Arraez is Palacios' double play partner on the GCL Twins. The slightly younger counterpart is also putting up good numbers in the GCL at an even younger age, as he won't turn 19 until next season. His OPS isn't quite as impressive, and his performance has tailed off of late, but he makes very good contact with a decent amount of speed. He too is a ways off, but is thus far out performing his much higher priced international FA counterparts.
 
25) Brandon Peterson (unrnk) RP - Peterson is finishing up his second full season with the Twins after being drafted in the 13th round in 2013. His minor league career to date has a K/9 of over 12, though he is not quite as stingy with the walks as some would like. He does induce a lot of weak contact as his career hits/9 sits at an absurd value UNDER 6. He's given up 1 home run in the last 2 seasons combined. His transition to AA hasn't come without bumps, but he's still putting up some very respectable numbers as a 23 year old in AA.
 
26) Mat Batts (unrnk) SP - The 2014 17th rounder is having an excellent season, one that has been a surprise given how far down he was drafted. He's maintained an ERA around 2 across both low A and high A and gets a fair amount of Ks to go with it. To go with that, he keeps the home runs down (2 HRs in 100 IP this season so far) and is stingy with the walks as well with a BB/9 of around 2 this season across both levels. He earned a mid season promotion to Fort Meyers and has adjusted seamlessly. The lefty should start in AA next season, which will be a very good test to indicate what his future might hold for the Twins. Given his age and draft status, you won't see him on many prospect lists this year, but if he continues dominating hitters, he's going to be a much more known name next year at this time.
 
27) Travis Blankenhorn (unrnk) 3B - The 2015 3rd rounder impressed right out of the gate posting pretty respectable numbers in a 14 game sample at the GCL. This earned him a promotion to E-town, where he's done even better. He's 18, and is forcing himself into the Cedar Rapids picture for the 2016 season, so there's a lot to like about this young 3B. His plate discipline has been respectable thus far and he has a modest amount of power to go with it. The ceiling seems fairly high for this kid.
 
28) Amaurys Minier (22) 1B/3B/OF - As a big bonus sign in the international market, Minier has shown occasional flashes to justify the signing. However, his overall result line has been less than impressive. He's young, so there's plenty of time/potential here, but he's going to remain lower on this list until he can start hitting more consistently. His batting average at E-town currently sits right around the Mendoza line. At 19, he has plenty of room for improvement.
 
29) Huascar Ynoa (unrnk) SP - Ynoa was another big bonus sign from last year and has been pretty decent in the DSL in his age 17 season. He's got to work a bit more on his control, but this is somewhat normal for a 17 year old kid. I like the upside, but at his current age he has a long long way to go before achieving that.
 
30) Lewin Diaz (unrnk) 1B - Diaz was another high priced international free agent signing for around 1.2 M during the 2013 international signing period. He impressed during his age 17 stint in the DSL, but his first taste of action in the states has been less than impressive. His average is low, though he has pretty good plate discipline maintaining an OBP .100 higher than his average. His power, however, has been non-existent. That could definitely be a small sample, as he's only 20 games into his season, and at his age it's not too much of a concern just yet.
 
 
HM: Aaron Sleegers, Jake Reed (20), Zach Jones, Jean Carlos Arias, Trey Cabbage, Miguel Gonzalez, Alex Swim, Jason Kanzler, Max Murphy, AJ Achter, Dallas Gallant, Trevor Hildenberger, Zach Granite, Niko Goodrum, Trey Vavra, Tanner English, Danny Ortiz, Engelb Vielma, and Cameron Boozer.
 
This is my 3rd prospect list, and I have to admit that the deeper I go, the harder this gets. There's lots of deserving guys who have been left off the list, and at the lower ranks, there really isn't much that distinguishes them. I try to find a nice balance between results and ceiling, though once you get into the lower ranks, ceiling tends to take precedence. While the reality says that many of these guys won't make it, what I really like is that the Twins system is pretty deep everywhere except catcher and the minor leagues should do a good job providing impact pieces either in trades or in call ups for the majors during their resurgence. As a team, the Twins look posed to be a force in the AL central as soon as next season and will likely remain there for a good 5-10 years given the depth they have in their minors.

Now that the season has wound down and the Twins have finished their fourth consecutive 90 loss season, it's time to start looking at a plan for 2015. While the 2014 season did not look so great in the record book, there were some very nice building blocks for the team. For one, the offense did quite well. This is especially noteworthy given that at the beginning of the season, the offense was, to put it mildly, horrid. The improvement was generated by seeing a healthy Joe Mauer return to the team and successful debuts of Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas. Oswaldo Arcia was also much better in the second half of the season posting an OPS > .800 in both August and September. While Vargas and Arcia have been personal top 10 prospects of mine, Santana has escaped my radar the last two seasons, and all he did was rake. Two younger players also established themselves as regulars. Brian Dozier followed up his second half spike last season with a sustained effort. While his batting average was lower than most would have liked, his power stats and on base stats were exceptional for a second baseman, and he did it while playing very good defense. Trevor Plouffe also earned a starting job with improvements in both his bat and glove. Overall, he was a top 5-10 3B placing him solidly above average. This bodes well for the future of the club.
 
The pitching side, however, was a disaster. Only Phil Hughes was an above average pitcher. Kyle Gibson did improve significantly posting numbers that would be equivalent to a 4ish starter. Given his age and minor league career, there's a good chance he builds off of this. The team saw debuts for Logan Darnell, Yohan Pino, and Trevor May as well, with May getting the bulk of the starts near the end of the season. May was terrible in August, though he improved to merely bad in September. However, here too there's reason for hope. He kept his K rate over 9 and dropped his walk rate significantly in September, walking only 8 in 5 games while striking out 29. He clearly has work to do, but like Gibson, there's good reason to think that he can take a big step forward in 2015 after his AAA breakout this year. Pino looked like a guy who can be stashed on the 40 man while he has options and brought up for the occasional spot start. Darnell clearly needed more work, but given his K rates both in the minors and in the majors, could amount to something, whether that's with the Twins remains to be seen, especially with what is coming up the pipeline.
 
The peripherals for the team improved as well. In 2013, their Pythagorean record indicated they were significantly worse than their overall record, being bested only by the Astros. In 2014, their Pythagorean record said that the team was better than the record indicated. While that alone doesn't indicate improvement, it does say that lady luck may have played against the Twins a bit this season.
 
That said, it's becoming more clear that ownership wants to see a return to winning. Season ticket sales have been dropping steadily for several years now, and with no all star game to boost them this offseason, the drop off is likely going to be severe. While at this point, there's little to stop the short term losses, a return to respectability is going to be a priority. The following is my plan.
 
I'd start with coaching. I do not agree with the presumption that coaching has little effect in the win column, as a coaches job is to consistently put a team in position to win. Often, this is accomplished through managing egos in the clubhouse, which is very difficult to put a metric on, but the coaching situation involves motivating players, developing younger players, identifying flaws in a player's mechanics that other teams are exploiting, and managing games in such a way to minimize weaknesses and maximize strengths. Given the four consecutive 90 loss seasons, I thin, it's reasonable safe to assume that new voices need to be brought into the organization. As such, I'd suggest that it's time to start cleaning house here. I'd keep Molitor, Cuellar, and Brunanski, but beyond that, I'd retain no other major league coaches. The Twins will likely let Gardenhire stay on another year, but I think it's time for them to find a new voice to manage the clubhouse, and in particular one that is open to many of the new ideas being brought forth by statistics people. Of these three, I'd promote Molitor to the manager role, if he were inclined to take it. If he were not, I'd consider going after Joe Maddon or an external candidate, likely paying very close attention to the Cardinals or Rays organizations. I'd also bring up Doug Mientkewitz from the minor league staff and possibly Jake Mauer to fill position roles. I'd also look outside the organization for remaining vacancies.
 
Player moves are a bit more difficult to do, as free agency does not appear to have what the Twins most likely need. The Twins are also in an odd situation where keeping many of the players that they currently have would be in their best interest, as many of these guys will likely play a role in the future. While the offense was good, the Twins were hurt by poor defensive play, due to playing players out of position and playing players who just could not defend. The goal in 2015 is to improve here. Let's start with the guys who aren't going anywhere:
 
1B - Mauer - 23M/yr. As a catcher, Mauer might have some demand. As a 1B, he has very little. He rebounded quite nicely the second half and looked more like his old self. Bottom line though, he's not going anywhere. His defense at first should improve, though he was hardly the problem when it came to bad defense.
 
2B - Dozier. In 2014, Dozier established himself as a member of the next wave. While his batting average was a bit low, he showed exceptional plate discipline as well as some much needed power for the organization. He is one of only a handful of Twins to have a 20/20 season, and for a while there was some thought that he could have 30/30 season. To add to it, he played defense at a nearly elite level. He's arbitration eligible in 2016. Given the situation, I think the most prudent course of action is to work out a contract extension with Dozier over the offseason. He has four years of team control, so the team could likely work out a 5 or 6 year deal. I would attempt to sign Dozier to a 5 year, 30M contract with a 6th year team option of 10M, with a 1M buyout. This would lock him up for his most productive years and keep him relatively easy to trade should another 2B prospect step up.
 
RF - Arcia. Arcia really improved his offense in the second half of this season. His overall numbers, however, were not terribly impressive. What Arcia has shown is that he can hit. His problems deal with a swing too often mentality as well as defense. Given the improvement on the offense, I'd recommend that he spend a lot of time this offseason working on his defensive skills, noting that a step forward in 2015 would likely earn him a very nice contract that offseason.
 
C - Suzuki/Pinto. Signed for another 2 years, Suzuki is not going anywhere. I would, however, plan on Pinto being his primary backup as well as occasional DH and maybe some OF duties to keep his bat in the lineup. I'd let Pinto know that he should be working on taking a few fly balls in the offseason to get used to some occasional time in the OF and that he will be catching 60-80 games next year should Suzuki remain healthy and productive.
 
DH - Vargas. Vargas has a pretty good rookie year and at this point, he's earned the right to break with the 2015 team. While I would not be shocked if he were to struggle (and be sent down) in his sophomore campaign, for the time being, this job is his.
 
3B - Plouffe. He's getting one more year. Sano is going to need time to develop and Ploufe was an above average 3B. I think he stays on the roster for another year and will likely be a trade candidate in the 2015 offseason if Sano develops as hoped.
 
SS - Of the position players, this position is the most difficut to fill. Both Escobar and Santana put up above average numbers for the SS postion, though Santana put his up primarily in CF. While I like Santana as a long term solution, his numbers were inflated by a very high BABIP and a K rate that says he's going to come crashing back down to earth. On the flip side, he certainly earned a job to start. The problem as I see it is that his future is at SS, and from what I've read, he needs some work on his defense. I'd dangle Escobar this offseason to see if he could fetch something of value, as he too deserves to be a starting SS, however, this move comes with some risk, as there really isn't a fall back plan should Santana find he needs some work. I wouldn't trade Escobar unless he brought back something of value. If that were the case, the Twins could move Escobar to a super utility role and have Santana starting at SS or they could let Santana spend some time in AAA working on his defense.
 
SP - Hughes, Gibson, and May. Each of these guys are staying for various reasons. Hughes had a record breaking season this year. He will be the opening day starter and will remain with the team. Gibson had a pretty good first full season notching a 4.47 ERA in approximately 180 innings. While those numbers are not outstanding by any means, they were above replacement level and should continue to improve with experience. As it is, these numbers are more of a number 4 type starter, and another year should see improvement on all of them. Baring injury, I'd expect Gibson to pitch 200 innings and bring ERA down a bit closer to 4 with a slight rise in the K rate. Trevor May will also return in my plans. While he didn't do as well as I'd have liked in his rookie campaign, he did improve significantly. His break out season in AAA indicates that he has little to prove there, and given his ability to miss bats, he will likely settle in next year and put up much better numbers.
 
RP - Perkins, Fein, Theilbar, and Pelfrey. While I suspect Pelfrey is going to get every opportunity to start, I don't see may ways for this to happen. I could see arguing that this is a sunk cost, but this isn't how the Twins do things. I suspect Pelfrey will get a shot in the pen. Perkins will remain, and I'd keep Fein and Thielbar around. However, that leaves at a minimum 2 open slots, most likely 3. I'd non-tender Duensing and Swarzack or trade them for whatever I could get. I'd tap internal candidates for these roles giving an open tryout for Tonkin, Guererra, Pressley, Oliveros, Thompson, and Achter.
 
Free agency:
 
I don't see the Twins dipping into free agency that much. This is due to not matching up well with needs. I would make an effort to sign Colby Rasmus to a 1 year deal to play CF. I'd try to get an option out of that deal as well. Rasmus would provide a bridge to Hicks/Buxton.
 
Trades:
 
First big trade:
 
I think trades make a lot more sense to the Twins this offseason as there are some teams that match up a bit better. The LA Dodgers are a big one with 3 expensive contracts in their OF, a cheap option in Puig who isn't going anywhere, and some nice prospects coming up through their system. I'd target Matt Kemp, who put together a decent season but isn't worth the 21 M they are paying him over the next 5 years. The Twins need a LF, there's no replacement in the near term. Kemp played CF, puts up better than average numbers with the bat and should be average or better in a corner defensively. Given his contract, the Dodgers won't be getting much for him unless they kick in a large portion of this salary. Given the Twin's youth movement, they should have cash for the forseable future as their payroll will largely drop. This won't hurt their future, though it could potentially hamstring some free agency moves if Kemp were to suddenly stop playing well. That said, he's 29, so he should be able to be productive through the remainder of his contract, just not to the value of his contract. I'd attempt to dangle Escobar or Nolasco plus maybe a C prospect to bring Kemp over to MN.
 
The second trade I'd attempt to make is to add some higher ceiling pitching to the team. The problem as I see it is that finding this type of talent is pretty difficult to do. Two teams looking to be making some moves would be the Diamondbacks and the Reds. The problem, however, is that I don't see the Twins having what it would take to get a guy like Archie Bradley or Robert Stephenson. Both of these guys would be insanely expensive, and there's no chance either team would let someone like that go without acquiring something of equal value. I don't see the Twins dangling Buxton or Sano for one of these guys, so in reality, I don't see it happening. Perhaps AZ might be willing to deal as they showed a willingness to deal Trevor Bauer to Cleveland, but given their play this year, and their need for pitching at the major league level, trading one of their 3 top 100 prospects playing in the high minors makes very little sense. In the end, I don't see this happening unless the Twins are completely sold on Plouffe.
 
 
 
 
Minor league moves.
I'd send Rosario, Sano, Berrios, Burdi, and Buxton to AA with the hope that each could earn a midseason promotion. Meyer would start in AAA, and I'd expect him to be called up at some point in the season.
 
 
Final Roster
C - Suzuki/Pinto
1B - Mauer
2B - Dozier
3B - Plouffe
SS - Escobar (if no trade is made)
LF - Kemp
CF - Rasmus
RF - Arcia
 
BN - Pinto, Beresford (utility), Schaffer (4th OF), Nunez, Parmelee
 
SP - Hughes, Gibson, May, Nolasco, Millone
 
BP - Perkins, Fein, Theilbar, Pelfrey, Tonkin, Pressley, Oliveros, and Guerrera,

Last year, I decided to put together a top 20 list that became a top 21 list (b/c I forgot to include Kepler) towards the end of the season in large part b/c the product on the field was pretty bad and b/c I wanted something to talk about. It seems like it could be a fairly fun tradition to maintain, so I'm doing it again this year. I've expanded it out a bit more, and this is in large part due to the fact that the system has gotten stronger. The results from many of the 2012/13 drafts have been very encouraging, and many of the guys on this list have been dropped, not b/c their outlook has changed, but b/c the system has added more people that look to be very capable major leaguers. Last year's list did not graduate any of the members on it (Sulbaran was traded, but that was it), though I had to make a decision to keep Pinto as he's accumulated ML service time. My choice to keep him is largely b/c it's pretty clear he is not a finished product, though I suspect his name will be off of most pundit's lists at this point. I've also kept Vargas, Darnell, Tonkin, and Polanco, all of whom have seen ML service time, but have very few appearances. I didn't rate Santana last year, and he's spent quite a bit of time in the majors showing incredible promise. I'd note that he's significantly out performed his minor league numbers to date. This is pretty rare, and even more so for a rookie. I suspect he will come back down to earth, but his start has been very encouraging.
 
The system as a whole was hurt by injuries to its top 2 prospects. This has likely delayed the transition time by a year as many people expected to see both Sano and Buxton this season. It may provide a bit of a blessing in disguise as the Twins will have one more season picking high than they otherwise would. On the flip side, many more guys have stepped up and are looking like very capable players. The farm system as a whole has improved.
In terms of ranking, I tend to put more emphasis on results. I like tools, but I have a difficult time with guys like Max Kepler who have the tools, but haven't gotten the results. As such, I include guys like Logan Darnell, who isn't a toolsy guy, but has gotten some pretty good results to date. It's also why I have Polanco ranked above Gordon. It's not a slight to Gordon, but Polanco has done well at much higher levels at the same position than Gordon.
 
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1) Byron Buxton - CF (1) - Buxton remains at the top spot as a five tool player who surprised a lot of people. He raked in both Cedar Rapids and Fort Meyers last season and would have likely started in AA except for a injuries. He has managed to injure both wrists this year. He looked like he had found his old form in A+ only to sustain his second wrist injury. His results thus far in FTM are nothing special, but given the injuries and late start, he's essentially going through his spring training right now. He boasts 5 tool talent at a premium defensive position. His power hasn't quite developed yet, but 20 home run potential seems pretty reasonable. EST 2016 opening day.
 
2) Miguel Sano - 3B (2) - Sano will miss all of 2014 to TJS. TJS doesn't affect hitters quite the same way it does pitchers, but the Twins are being cautious with their future slugger. Sano will likely begin 2014 in AA where he 'struggled' in his first taste in 2012. His struggles were contact related, posting only a .236 BA, but still managing a .915 OPS. Sano has 80 grade power according to a number of scouts and he will slot into the middle of the order for years to come. His biggest weakness is his contact. He's demonstrated the ability to make contact in the lower minors last season, but he still needs to cut down on the strike outs. EST 2016 opening day.
 
3) Alex Meyer - RH SP (3) - Meyer is the first of many pitching prospects in the system, and he was acquired by the Twins in large part due to pitching being a weakness of the system at that time. Meyer's overall numbers in AAA look pretty good, sporting an ERA of 3.05. He's striking out more than 10 batters per 9 innings, and can throw in the upper 90s. AAA hitters have not hit well off of him, but his glaring weakness right now is walks, walking nearly a batter every 2 innings. Meyer is still refining his third pitch, but he boasts 2 plus pitches to go with it. He will likely see some time in the bull pen this September and possibly sooner, but he still needs to work on control, as he will struggle in the majors if he continues walking this many batters. EST 2014 Sept callup, SP sometime in 2015.
 
4) Kohl Stewart - RH SP (5) - Stewart's 1st professional season can only be described as successful. As one of the youngest players in the MWL, Stewart is among the leaders in a number of categories. His biggest knock so far has been a lack of strike outs, though this appears to be due more to his development plan than his talent. He's largely shelved one of his better pitches and has been focusing on developing his fastball. He boasts potential of having 4 plus pitches, and he throws in the mid 90s. He's currently been sidelined due to should soreness, but this appears to be minor. His ceiling is a top of the rotation arm. EST 2017.
 
5) JO Berrios - RH SP (8) - Berrios appears to have taken a huge step forward this season in his second full season of professional baseball. He destroyed the FSL posting K rate over 10/9 innings and walking just over 2 hitters per 9 innings. He also boasts a mid 90s fastball and advanced control for players his age. He's one of the youngest players in AA presently, though he has struggled in his first taste of the league. He's also a bit shorter than the average pitcher, which some analysts (namely Keith Law) think will make it difficult for him to succeed. That said, his ceiling is like the other pitchers on this list. He can be a top of the rotation guy if things break right. He will finish out this season in AA and probably start there next year as well. EST late 2015.
 
6) Trevor May - RH SP (7) - When May was drafted, he was considered by many to have a top of the rotation ceiling. His early career in Philly showed impressive strikeout ability, but he struggled with control. After being traded to Minnesota, he showed an improvement in his walk rate to the tune of approximately .7BB/9 IP. However, his peripherals did not improve much. AAA in 2014 has been a different story. He's recorded a similar drop in his walk rate, maintaining a much more respectable rate of around 3.3/9 IP and is still striking out batters at a rate of 1/inning. He has shaved 2 full hits per 9 IP as well, giving him a very respectable 1.12 WHIP. Given the step forward, May is looking more like a starter than the reliever that many had him pegged for, and he'd have likely been in MN had it not been for a calf injury. I think his ceiling is still on the top end of the rotation being anywhere from a 1-3 starter. ETA any time.
 
7) Jorge Polanco - SS/2B (11) - When Polanco was signed, his defense was considered to be the prize and his bat was questionable. As a pro, his bat has shown quite a bit of promise, and it's his glove that needs work. Forgetting the 6 AB sample in MN, he's amassed a career minor league OPS of .773 with each of the last 3 seasons being above that mark. He's struggling a bit in AA right now, and there's question whether he's going to be able to stick at SS, but he's showing promise as a 2B. With Dozier and Santana occupying those positions at the ML level, the Twins have time to be patient with him, but he is on the 40 man and ahs the luxury of a 4th option as well. ETA mid 2016.
 
8) Nick Gordon - SS (unrnk) Gordon was the number 5 overall pick. I dropped him down a bit b/c as of yet he hasn't done much. He has all the tools as well as major league bloodlines, so his future is bright. Hopefully he can do a 2013 Buxton and rocket up this list next season. That's probably asking too much, but one can hope. He's likely to start 2015 in Cedar Rapids. ETA fall of 2018.
 
9) Josmil Pinto - C (6) - I elected to keep Pinto on this list because it's pretty clear that the Twins management thinks he has work to do. His bat is probably ML ready now, but he clearly needs to work on his defense behind the dish. I still think he can be an above average catcher if he can improve his defense. He'll likely be up again in September and I suspect he's going to be starting 2015 as the 2nd C/part time DH.
 
10) Kennys Vargas - 1B/DH (10) - Vargas is a beast of a human whose primary position is going to be DH. He sports a career minor league OPS of .854. He's not going to bring much defensively to the table and he's just been called up to the majors. His walk rate is pretty decent and he's dropped his K rate by a decent margin this year as well. At 23, he looks to be a middle of the order bat, though I suspect he's going to take some lumps in MLB before he's ready. He's here now, so no new ETA, but I'm guessing he returns to AAA next year at some point. He's in MN to stay late 2015.
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I've read from a few sources that the 11-20 of the Twins is better than some team's top 10 picks. As you will see below, here's why. This list reminds me of the Twins top 10 lists from a few years back: Loaded with talent who have done very well in the lower minors, but pretty weak near the top. That's pretty good considering that everyone in the top 10 except for Buxton and Stewart has seen time in AA (and I expect Buxton to get promoted in the near future).
 
11) Nick Burdi - RP (unrnk). I don't normally rank relief pitchers this high, but Burdi looks like a good chance of being a special one. Forgetting his professional debut, he's striking out nearly 2 batters an inning in Cedar Rapids. I'm guessing he gets promoted to the FSL yet this season and should be on the fast track to the big leagues. He brings upper 90s heat and can hit triple digits on the gun from time to time. ETA, late 2015.
 
12) Eddie Rosario - 2B/CF (4) Rosario may be the biggest disappointment of the 2014 season. He served a 50 game suspension to start the year and has not performed well in his return. He's shown flashes of being that guy that was ranked 4th on my list last year. Keep in mind he's only 22, he's in AA, and he has a career minor league OPS of .839, even with his rather forgettable season thus far. He's part of what appears to be a log jam of players at his positions in the organization right now, so he may be of more value to the team in a trade. His bat doesn't profile as a corner OF, so a move to the corner doesn't make a ton of sense. Other teams will value him more at CF or 2B, and as such, I suspect he may end up being traded if he puts things together given his spots will likely be held by Buxton, Hicks, Dozier, and Polanco. ETA late Fall 2016.
 
To be honest, I think the next 3 guys are all very interchangeable. All have the potential to be top of the rotation arms. They are all pitching in Cedar Rapids. They are all young for their league. When the 2014 MWL season began, Kohl Stewart was one of the youngest in the league. Since then, that title has been taken by Lewis Thorpe, who is more than a year younger than Stewart. Stephen Gonsalves is also younger than Stewart and is now pitching there.
 
One thing to keep in mind, however, about pitching prospects is that they are very hard to predict. A few years back, people in prospecting circles were drooling over the idea of landing Dellin Betances and/or Manny Banuelos from the Yankees in a potential trade. They were even nicknamed the Killer Bs. Both of these kids looked like they could be top of the rotation type arms. Fast forward to the present. Betances was forced to reinvent himself as a reliever. He was promoted in 2013 to the Yankees and has been pretty good as a reliever, but his days as a starter ended in 2013. Banuelos has seen a drop in his stats at each promotion and then missed all of 2013 to TJS. He made it up to AAA, but did not post anything close to the numbers that our current Rochester pitching staff is doing. He's currently rehabbing in AA. He's still a decent pitching prospect, but much of the shine has worn off. While the next 3 are certainly worth being excited over, the failure rate of young pitching prospects is pretty high. Most of us are drooling over the idea of a starting rotation in 3/4 years that could have some combination of Meyer, May, Berrios, Stewart, Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Hu. If all of them pan out, the Twins will likely be trading some of these guys for huge bounties to keep their system stocked and remain competitive. However, history says that some (or even most) of these guys will fail.
 
13) Lewis Thorpe - LH SP (13) - Thorpe absolutely destroyed the GCL as a 17 year old last year and started getting a lot of national love from prospecters. He turned 18 this year, and some experts said that Thorpe would likely have been a 1st rounder in this years draft had he been a US citizen. The Twins have also believed in him allowing him to skip the Appy league altogether. He predictably struggled in his MWL debut, but is also the youngest player in the league. His first four starts were pretty bad. He should improvement on his next four, and his last 3 have been pretty decent. His innings are a bit low as he's limited to about 75 pitches a game, but he's now got a very respectable K rate of 9.4/9 IP. His walk rate is still too high for the league. If he keeps trending in the right direction he may start in Fort Meyers, but he's likely to repeat at Cedar Rapids. He boasts mid-90s speed, and that could still improve given his age. He has top of the rotation potential if he continues to develop. ETA 2018.
 
14) Stephen Gonsalves - LH SP (14) - Gonsalves entered his senior year of high school with a reasonable hope that he could be drafted in the 1st round. However, a poor senior year and a suspension from the team eliminated him from quite a few team's draft boards as many expected him to go to college. The Twins got him in the 4th round of the 2013 draft, and right now this is looking like a steal. Gonsalves was recently promoted to the MWL and is currently getting good results. There's some question about his breaking pitches and how they develop, but if things break right, he represents another top of the rotation type arm. Like Thorpe, he can pitch in the low to mid 90s and could still add some speed to his pitches. ETA 2018.
 
15) Chih-Wei Hu - RH SP (unrnk) - I ingored Hu last season simply because of his age. He dominated the GCL, but unlike Thorpe/Gonsalves, he was older. He was given 3 starts in the Appy and sent to the MWL where he continues to dominate his opponents. At 20, he's not old for the MWL, and he boasts a mid 90s fastball. At this point, it's worth taking notice. He too could potentially be a top of the rotation arm if things continue to break positively. ETA 2018.
 
16) Sean Gilmartin LH SP (unrnk) - Gilmartin was at one point one of the top prospects in the Brave's system making AAA at age 22. He fell out of favor with the Braves and was traded to the Twins for Doumit this last offseason. The Twins assigned him to AA, where he seemed to have figured something out. He posted a 3.3 ERA with a K rate of over 9/9IP. He was promoted to Rochester where he's pitched well (though not as well), but still better than his previous 2 AAA stints. He's only 24. His ceiling is more of a mid-rotation guy, but he's been getting results at the higher levels. ETA 2016.
 
17) Mitch Garver C (unrnk) - After the 2013 draft, Garver was listed as a potential sleeper. For what was supposedly a weak draft, it has been productive for the Twins as he's the 3rd of 4 members on this list. His defense is good enough to stick at C, and thus far, the college draftee has destroyed the MWL to the tune of a > .860 OPS. His plate discipline is verry good as well as he has a K/BB ratio of around 1.2. He could profile as a decent defender with an above average bat. ETA 2017.
 
18) Travis Harrison 3B/LF (unrnk) - Harrison was drafted out of HS and started his career at age 19 in the Appy league. He was considered toolsy but raw and his consistenly performed better than league average (while being young for the league) but posted stats that tend to fly under the radar. He has dropped his K rate in the FSL this year while keeping his BB rate the same. His average has gone up as has his ability to hit doubles, though his HRs have dropped. This may have more to do with the spacious parks in the FSL, and he's my pick to have a break out season next year in AA. ETA late 2016.
 
19) Adam Brett Walker RF (9) - Walker is the definition of a high risk/high reward prospect. Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft, he absolutely destroyed the MWL in his first full year. Contact issues have been a concern, and they've been on display in 2014. His strikeouts have increased and his average has dropped. On the plus side, his walk rate has increased this season over last season, and he needs to get his K rate under control. He could be a star, but he could also flame out and never get beyond AA. He's also a bit faster than a typical RF type guy, so he should be able to provide decent defense in the corner if he makes it. I suspect he's going to repeat A+. ETA late 2017
 
20) Michael Tonkin RH RP (15) - Tonkin drops down a bit this year, though not due to his own performance. The 24 year old is in his second season at AAA. His peripheral numbers remain the same, though his ERA has dropped significantly. He wasn't terribly good in Minnesota this year, but he should be back to stay next season. He profiles as a back of the pen type reliever. ETA September.
 
 
21) Logan Darnell LH SP (18) - Darnell got off to a great start at the beginning of the season posting solid gains across all of his peripheral stats. He's cooled off a bit, and has also earned a 3 game trial in Minnesota this year. His ceiling remains a mid-rotation type guy with a floor of a 4/5 guy. He has a narrow window of opportunity to earn a spot in MN, and I suspect his value will come more from a trade once his options are gone. His walk rate is probably his biggest issue. ETA, September.
 
 
22) Jake Reed RH RP (unrnk) - This 2014 5th round pick is quickly turning into a surprise. He's a college junior and elected to sign instead of rolling the dice for a senior season. Thus far, he's been spectacular. He pitched only 4 games in the Appy, totalling 6 innings, striking out 8 and giving up only 1 hit. He was since promoted to Cedar Rapids, where his dominance has continued. His K/9 is over 11. His BB/9 is under 2, he's given up 1 earned run in 13 innings and has only given up 6 hits. Like Nick Burdi, he looks like he could be a fast riser though the system. Reed's fastball can hit mid-90s and by reports has a pretty decent slider as well. His ceiling is a back of the bullpen arm, and I suspect he's going to be fast tracked. ETA late 2016.
 
23) Tyler Duffey RH SP (unrnk) - When Duffey was first brought up in the TwinsDaily adopt a prospect forums, the general consensus was something along the lines of "Good luck". For Duffey though, it seems that he's gotten some help from more than just lady luck. While his ceiling is more of a back end rotation guy, he's rapidly moved up the system posting a 20-9 record with a 3.48 ERA in just over 2 seasons of work. His WHIP is a respectable 1.13 in AA right now and he's striking out just under 7 batters/9IP. Given the pitching depth, his role in the Twins will likely be more of a AAA guy/spot starter until his options are used up, and he'll probably find himself traded at some point. ETA 2015.
 
 
24) Amaurys Minier 3B (unrnk) - Minier was one of the big signings in 2012 and was given his first shot at rookie ball in 2013. He wasn't terribly good last year, but his second go around in the GCL at age 18 has been much better. The 3B has an OPS over .820 and is showing good plate discipline. He's not putting up the video game stats that some of the Twins better prospects have done in rookie ball, but at 18, he'd doing well enough to be on the radar. ETA 2020.
 
25) Max Kepler OF/1B (17) - People didn't agree with my ranking of Kepler last season, and I'm guessing that will continue. My preference is to find a good combination of results and tools. While Kepler has the tools, the results have been rather pedestrian other than a really good year in the Appy in 2012. This is Kepler's 5th season in the organization and his OPS in the FSL is under .700. It was noted when he signed that he would take some time to develop, but 5 years later, there's good reason to question to wonder how much that will actually happen. In his favor, he's ony 21 years old, and he is playing in a pitchers league. He was added to the 40 man this offseason and due to his slow progression gets an extra option for the team to work with. This will keep him in the system a bit longer, but he's in desparate need of a breakout season. ETA 2018.
 
Honorable mention: Jason Kanzler, Max Murphy, AJ Achter, Dallas Gallant, Zach Jones(21), JT Chargois, Aaron Slegers, and Tyler Jones.
 
Overall, the Twins system is easily a top 3 system, and from what I've read, there's a pretty big gap between what the Twins have and every other team except the Cubs. It's a very strong system top to bottom, but it's definitely stronger up the middle, which also happens to be the currency of baseball. Of the 25 guys mentioned here, 10 of them are starting pitchers. 7 of these starters could potentially be that ace that Twins fans have coveted since Santana left. In reality, there's no such thing as a pitching prospect, so the likeliness of many of those guys disappointing is rather high. That said, with 7 guys who could reach that potential, the odds of striking it rich is good. It's clear that the Twins have been targeting strengthening their pitching over the last few seasons as many of these pitchers have been added since Ryan took over. In addition, there are 3 more relief pitchers who look like they can reach the majors and provide excellent back of the pen help in the bottom half of this list. Several of the honorable mentions could also easily fit into this role but fell off the list due to age (Gallant, Tyler Jones) or injury (Chargois, Zach Jones). The bottom line is that the system looks like it could keep the MLB team in most of the pitching leader categories as these guys develop.
 
The same is true with middle infielders and center fielders. It's clear that the organization has been targeting help in these areas. Of the remaining 12 players, 5 of them (4 of which are in the top 10) fit into this category as well as 2 honorable mentions that at this point there's too little data to quantify. With Dozier locking down 2nd, and Santana looking like he may be an above average major league SS at this point, several of these guys will likely end up being traded if they continue to progress. Aaron Hicks, though not included in this list due to service time, also complicates things in a positive way, as I firmly believe that there's still hope for him to realize his potential, even with the setbacks. Teams tend to add more wins with guys who excel in these positions, as MLB average/replacement level for these positions is pretty low.
 
The system's weakness appears to be more along the lines. Of the 7 remaining players in the top 25, 2 of them are catchers (though both look like they could be very good catchers). Vargas is the sole 1B. Walker is a RF. The remaining prospects are 3B/OF types. Sano certainly looks like a force at 3B for some time, so this isn't necessarily an area that needs to be addressed quickly, but the team could definitely use some help with high ceiling corner bats. The good news is that those tend to be the easiest to aquire in free agency or even via trade. As well, several of the CF/MI prospects could easily transition in that direction should their bat play up but their position is blocked. Plenty of teams would also trade a good hitting LF/RF guy for some solid pitching, as pitching is always in high demand. I suspect this offseason, Ryan may attempt to trade off some of the AAA pitching depth for a blocked corner OF in another system.
 
Overall, however, it's a very strong system. With superstar hitting prospects in Sano and Buxton coupled with some very good hitters in Dozier and Mauer, the team should be able to score some runs. The development of guys like Santana, Vargas, Pinto, and Arcia is likely going to be the determining factor of how the offense fits in the next wave. If these guys progress well (and there's good reason to think they can), the MLB team in the later part of this decade will be stacked top to bottom with above average players. A return to meaningful fall baseball is very likely.