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Blog Entries posted by diehardtwinsfan

  1. diehardtwinsfan
    Overall, it's not hard to be excited about the Twins in 2020 given a 101 win season in 2019. The ending certainly wasn't ideal, but 2019 showed us that our window is open and it should be for a few years. Cleveland remains the only real competition in the central. Chicago is up and coming, but they are likely another year or two away before they can have a realistic shot of competing. KC and Detroit are dumpster fires right now. So with that in mind, it's up to Falvey and Levine to construct a roster that can not only win the central but advance deep into the post season.
     
    There's no question that starting pitching is our biggest need, and if I were running the team, this is where I would focus if I were them, but we need to start by trimming and expanding the roster in advance of the Rule V draft. The Twins already made the easiest of moves by picking up Nelson Cruz's option, but it gets a bit tougher from here: This is our current 40 man roster. The following players are free agents: Gibson, Odorizzi, Schoop, Romo, and Castro. That leaves us at 36 before changes are made. I'd DFA/nontender/trade if someone wants to give up something for the following as well: Sam Dyson, Kohl Stewart, Ronald Torreyes, Ryan Lamarre, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ian Miller. I would also not pick up Perez's option. That brings us down to 28 guys on the roster going into winter meetings. Buxton and Poppen will most definitely return, so that moves us up to 30. CJ Cron is a bit of a wild card here. His play may not be worth the money spent on tendering him, but there's no replacement waiting in the wings just yet (more on him in a bit, but I haven't removed his spot). So as it stands right now, we need the following (several starting pitchers, a backup catcher, an 2B (though there's a replacement in house), possibly a 1B, and if possible another shut down reliever). Other than starting pitching help, this team is in pretty good shape...
     
    So on that note, I'm going to start by tendering Odorizzi a QO, with the clear desire to sign him to a 3 year deal. I'm going to guestimate that at 3/45 to make it work, as the 17M QO is probably the starting point to a negotiation. Jake was very good for us this year, but I'm not sure he's good enough for teams to surrender a pick and pay him 50+M on a multi-year deal. That brings the roster to 31. With Odorizzi at 17M, our current payroll sits at 48M. I'm going to tender the following candidates with a note that I'd be willing to extend any extension candidate willing to sign a reasonable deal. Some players won't sign them (Buxton for sure as his value is low due to health), but I suspect a couple guys likely sign a longer term contract.
    Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
    Trevor May – $2.1MM (extension candidate)
    Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM (I'd stay year to year here, I could see trading him if a better FA option was available, but I'm most likely tendering him)
    Miguel Sano – $5.9MM (extension candidate)
    Byron Buxton – $2.9MM (extension candidate)
    Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM (extension candidate)
    Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM (extension candidate)
    Jose Berrios – $5.4MM (extension candidate)

    That's an additional 32.1M. Add Garver in there as he's not going anywhere, but his total is about .5M. That leaves payroll at roughly 81M without Cron. Cron's arb estimate is around 7.7M, which isn't terrible for a .780 OPS. He's roughly an average bat at 1B. The problem with him though is that there aren't ML ready options to take his place... not now at least. Rooker, Raley and Weil could use more seasoning, and Kirilloff is also questionable at this point. Next year at this time, one of those guys will hopefully be knocking at the door or perhaps even had some success at the major league level, but I'm not sure there should be a plan to count on a rookie to perform. Surveying the FA market, you have a couple options available. Josh Donaldson would likely be my primary target, as he could also play 3B giving Baldelli some flexibility with Sano/Garver at 1B on occasion as well. I doubt he comes cheap, and certainly not cheaper than Cron. He's likely going to get something similar to his salary last season and quite possibly a multi-year deal, so I'd guess around 20M. Zimmerman, Rizzo, and Thames all have club options available, and to be honest there really isn't much in terms of sure fire help out there. I don't think trading for a 1B makes any sense at all unless there's someone who is essentially on the last year of his deal and performing. In all, I think tendering Cron is the right answer here unless they know they can get Donaldson... and I doubt that. So I tender him at 7.7M bringing our payroll up to roughly 89M.
     
    I'm not quite sure who all needs protecting and exposing. I'm using roster resource and protecting anyone that has R5 or Dec 19 as their status if their play warrants it. That said, I know this tool isn't completely accurate, so hopefully I haven't missed anyone. I see 10 names that warrant discussion. Let's start with the easy ones:
     
    Candidates:
    Griffin Jax (protect)
    Luke Raley (protect)
    Jake Reed (expose. He was not good last year)
    Zander Wiel (expose. He was not good last year)

    It gets a bit more difficult from here.
    Travis Blankenhorn - He will likely get a crack at AAA in his age 23 season. He had a .785 OPS in AA, and really does seem to be turning a corner. Those numbers are nothing special, but question at hand is can he stick on a ML roster. I don't think it's worth the risk. I protect him.
    Jhoan Duran - Duran likely starts in AA in his age 22 season, though he could also be promoted as he did spent some time there. He does a fantastic job keeping the ball in the park. His walk rate is acceptable and he doesn't give a lot of hits. He's kept his K rate around 10/9 IP for the last 2 seasons. I protect him.
    Dakota Chalmers - Chalmers is a sleeper. I could see a bad team poaching him and stashing him with their extra spot as he will be 23 next season. The MLB roster size expands to 26 in 2020, and I think bad teams will use that to grab players like Chalmers with upside who may be exposed. The Twins have a few of them and ultimately I think someone gets left off. Chalmers is posting some sexy strike out numbers striking out 48 in 34 innings of relief work. He's also very stingy with the long ball. His walk rate though is scary as he gave 23 free passes. Bottom line for Chalmers is that right now, he won't do well on a major league roster. His AFL performance to date has not changed my view of this. I'm going to expose him.
    Tom Hackimer - Hackimer pitched pretty well in his age 25 season in AA. He's one that could possibly stick in a mop up role in MLB. I lean towards not protecting him as well given his age. He got the strikeouts this season, his walk rate was a bit high at just over 4 per 9 innings but overall had a pretty good season between high A and AA. He likely starts in AA or AAA, but I'm going to expose him.
    Jovani Moran - Moran is a similar pitcher to Chalmers if you look at the numbers. He gets lots of strikeouts and gives up too many free passes though he tends to be prone to the long ball. He will also be 23 next season. He's another one risking losing, but I think I expose him.
    Tyler Wells - Wells is the hardest one. He was absolutely money in the minors but TJS derailed his 2019 season before it started. He will be rehabbing and should be able to pitch most of the year. I think the upside is too good to risk this, so I keep him.

    That leaves us with 5 additions. Our roster now sits at 36. We need to figure out at least 2 starting pitchers, a backup C, and ideally a shutdown RP. We're also sitting on a couple individuals (Harper, Poppen, and Gonsalves) that I'd like to keep but could be set free in the event a better opportunity comes along through cost cutting or trade.
     
    Falvey and Levine stated they weren't afraid to blow up the payroll when the windows is open, so now it's time to see if they will put the Pohlad's money to the test. They need pitching help badly, and having someone that can sit in front of Odorizzi and Berrios is a must in my opinion. Sign Gerrit Cole or Steven Strassburg (if he opts out) to a 5 or 6 year deal at 30M/season. That's probably what it will take to get either one of them. Feasibly, they could get them both and still have payroll sitting south of 150M, but I'm guessing that won't happen as much as I'd like and there are other needs I'd rather address... But they have to go big here, even if that means out bidding the competition by a significant margin. That moves payroll to $119M and gives us a pretty nice starting trio in Cole, Berrios, and Odorizzi. I'm guessing there's a QO attached here too for Cole at least, and I sacrifice the pick.
     
    They still need 2 more pitchers. I'm fine letting Dobnak, Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Smeltzer compete for one of the spots. Most of these guys did well enough that I'm not losing sleep over the role. It's Dobnak's to lose at this point, but he earned it in limited looks. The reality is that unless there's a trade in the works that involves sending one or two of these guys off as part of a deal for a more established option such as say Mike Minor, I think this spot is going to go to pre-arb guys. That's another 500k on the payroll. Note that I didn't mention Graterol. I'm assuming he's going to remain as a starter, but that also means he's capped at about 120 innings. He could be this guy as well, but I think he could pair well with Michael Pineda if they bring him back... which brings me to my next FA target:
     
    There are a few names I'd probably target here, they will have varying costs/years attached to them: Bumgardner, Wheeler, and Pineda would likely be my top 3. I'm personally not sold on Ryu from the Dodgers, but if my analytics guys liked him, then perhaps he's an option as well. Pineda actually pairs well with Graterol in that he can be stretched out and be the 5th starter in April/May and switch more to long relief/spot starting as the season wears on and Pineda returns from his suspension. That would keep Graterol's innings around 120 for the year (baring injury of course, which with Graterol is not low risk). Pineda would have been a QO option had he not been suspended. With roughly 40 days left on his suspension and of course the risk that he gets suspended again for longer, he's likely going to sign for much less than that. I'd offer him a 1/7 make good deal unless of course there's an unexpected price drop for the other guys on this list. That also means Graterol is on the 26 man, so that's another 500k to add to the payroll. If one of these other big names sign, I'm likely going to give Graterol a late start to his season in AAA and stretch him out to be the spot starter for the inevitable pitching injury. Once he gets closer to his 120, I'd shift him to the MLB pen during the stretch run.
     
    If you're keeping track at this point, I've added another 8M here and now I'm sitting at roughly 127M.
     
    Next up, I target a catcher. I'm not liking the idea of going with Astrudillo as my backup C. Rortvedt and Jeffers may be knocking at the door next year at this time, but counting on either in 2020 would not be wise. Astrudillo, while a fan favorite, still has options and is extremely valuable to the team earning frequent flier miles between Rochester and Minneapolis when someone gets hurt, so I'm going to sign someone. Retaining Castro is fine in my opinion if he's OK with a backup role. I'm looking though for no more than a two year deal. Castro works fine here, but I'd also target Austin Romine, Brian McCann, or Steven Voght. I'd be fine sacrificing a few home runs for some OBP. These guys are not young, so they won't be getting a huge deal. I'm going to guess it will be somewhere around 2/10-15, giving you a 5-8M cost in payroll. I'm going to assume this is 6M for now, bringing payroll up to 133.
     
    Last, I'm targeting a RP. I didn't learn my lesson about free agent relievers (and hopefully I'll update that blog at some point later this month), and there's 1 FA reliever that I want on this team and think that Falvey should pay for. I'm targeting Will Smith and spending what it takes to get him. I'm guessing he's signing for a 3-4 year deal at 10M+. He signed a 3/24 deal with SF in his last go around, and I have to think he's going to get at least that. I'm going to assume 3/30, but I'd be willing to pay more.
     
    That brings payroll up to 143.
     
    My 26 man roster is now as follows:
    C - Garver
    1B - Cron
    2B - Arraez or Gordon
    3B - Sano
    SS - Polanco
    CF - Buxton
    RF/LF - Rosario/Kepler
    DH - Cruz
     
    SP
    Cole/Strassburg, Berrios, Odorizzi, Graterol/Pineda or other pitching FA, Dobnak
     
    RP
    Smith, May, Duffey, Rodgers, Littell, Graterol, Harper (I'd have some open competition, but these are who I've penciled in).
     
    Bench
    Adrianza, Cave, Castro or other FA, Gonzalez
     
    I didn't count the salaries of Littell, Harper, and Cave or whomever internally would beat them out which comes out to another 1.5M. That puts my total payroll at roughly 144.5. I would hope this could go up a bit if my estimates were a bit low, but there's room there in my opinion.
     
    So there you have it. We can add a top shelf starter and relief pitcher and keep our payroll under 150M. I'm not sure what the front office will target, but this seems like a very reasonable option to field a very competitive team in 2020 and one with a good shot of advancing deep in the post season.
  2. diehardtwinsfan
    This is my second installment tracking all of the FA relievers. This was a personal nit to pick with the front office given the team's need and the plethora of available options. At the quarter pole though, the results were not as good as I'd have liked personally. At this point, the sample sizes are large enough that we should be able to get a feel for who was worth it, or if FA relievers really are just a crap shoot.
     
     
    The cream of the Crop:
     
    Kelvin Herrera - Herrera signed a 2/17 deal with Chicago and has so far been a complete bust, posting an ERA north of 7 out of the pen in 35 appearances so far this season. His K rate has been acceptable, but his BB rate has risen along with his WHIP which sits close to 1.2. His HR rate has also skyrocketed sitting at around 1.5 per 9 innings.
     
    Andrew Miller - Miller has turned it around a bit since the quarter pole, but even now it's hard to say his 2/25 deal with an additional option is what the Cards hoped it would be. His numbers are currently sitting around his career average as opposed to the 2014-2017 version that we had all hoped he'd do. I cannot really call this a bust anymore, but I'm not sure he'd be a name highly talked of if he was pitching here. To put it in perspective, his ERA sits right around where the much maligned Blake Parker sits. Granted, his peripherals are much better which tells me he may continue to positively regress.
     
    Adam Ottavino - I hate the Yankees. He's been a stud. His walk rate seems to be the only negative. He's striking out 12+ per 9 innings and walking 6+... That said, his WHIP is a healthy 1.3 as batters cannot make contact with him.
     
    Craig Kimbrel - This was a name we all watched closely. He's only managed 3 appearances for the Cubs since signing, so it's a bit too early to track this one. He has been shelled so far... but then again, it's 3 appearances.
     
    Jeurys Familia - Familia thus far hasn't rewarded the 3/30 contract he signed. His K rate is in line with his career norms, but he's walking more, giving up more hits, and giving up more home runs. His peripherals are pretty ugly right now and he sports a sparking 7.76 ERA in 31 appearances.
     
    Zach Britton - Britton signed a 3/39 deal with the Yankees and has pitched reasonably well, though I'm not sure why. His K rate is pretty bad for a reliver and below his 7.34 career average. His walk rate is up as well. He's managed to lower his H/9 rate as well as keep the ball in the park. If he was pitching for MN, I think most of us would be on pins and needles, but he's gotten results thus far in his 37 innings of work.
     
    Joe Kelly - Kelly signed a 3/25 deal with the LAD and has improved substantially on his results this quarter. Despite that, he hasn't been that good. His K rate remains good, but he's still allowed more walks, hits, and home runs over his career average. And I'd add that his career marks aren't very good for a RP. LA has him for another two years.
     
    David Robertson - Robertson signed a 2/23 deal with Philly and has been a bust so far. He's pitched in only 7 innings and has been shelled. He's currently on the shelf with elbow soreness where he has been all season.
     
    In all, there has been only one real hit here in Ottavino. Miller is making a case for being added to this list as he's improved substantially over his numbers earlier this season. Britton has gotten results as well, but he appears to be on borrowed time.
     
    The Second Tier:
     
    Justin Wilson - Wilson was a cheap grab for the Mets, signing a 2/10 deal. It appears that he spent most of the second half of the quarter on the DL, as he's only logged 10.2 innings of work with a 4.22 ERA. He's got time to redeem himself, but this deal hasn't gone well.
     
    Joakim Soria - Soria signed a 2/15 deal with Oakland, and has improved a bit on his numbers at the quarter turn. His ERA has dropped and his peripherals all look pretty good. Oakland has worked him hard as he's got 41.2 innings under his belt already this season. I'd say at this point that the signing has been good. I'm not sure the cause of the bloated ERA, but if I was guessing it would be the occasional big game as his peripherals say he's been pretty good.
     
    Cody Allen - Allen signed a 1 year deal with the Angels and so far has not lived up to his 8.5M salary. His HR and BB rates have skyrocketed though he still maintains a sexy K rate. His 5.54 ERA is something we can all live without. He's now in our minor league system. I'd say this is a good deal for the Twins getting him at the minimum if they can fix him, not so much for the Angels who will pay the rest of the 8M owed. Time will tell if we can do something, but this was no risk to us. He was a bust though for the Angels.
     
    Jesse Chavez - Chavez signed a 2/8 deal with Texas, and is trying to reinvent himself as a reliever. At the quarter pole, the results weren't all that good, but they've moved into respectable territory at the half way mark. I'd say at this point, this is a good signing, especially for the price. Chavez could replace a few arms in our pen, but we'd be happy to upgrade him. His K rate is below average for a good reliever, but he does minimize walks and hits.
     
    Trevor Rosenthal - Rosenthal has under performed his 1/7 deal and has been a complete disaster managing only 6 innings of very ugly baseball in the majors.
     
    There are only 5 names in this tier, and it has improved a bit as the season wore on. At the quarter pole, there
    wasn't a name on this tier that we'd be clamoring for. Now, Chavez and Soria both fall into a range of acceptable. That's not really high praise, but they appear to be trending in the right direction and could be reliable going forward.
     
    Cheap Fliers:
     
    Brad Brach - At the quarter pole, he wasn't that bad. At the half way mark, he's been horrible. The K rate is nice, but he's walking guys like crazy as well and still gives up hits. His ERA sits over 6 in 35 innings of work, and I'm sure he's part of the reason the Cubs went out and got Kimbrel.
     
    Zach Duke - yes, that Zach Duke. He signed a 2M deal with the Reds and has been so bad that they've only given him an additional 5 innings since the last time I wrote this piece. He's been injured for parts of it and largely ineffective when healthy.
     
    Cory Gearrin - the Mariners have, thus far, gotten a bargin with Gearrin for the 1.4M value of his contract. He has regressed a bit since the quarter pole but has notched over 30 innings of OK work. He really needs to cut down on his walk rate a bit. This isn't a bad value signing, but he doesn't have a place on a contending team. He's been worse than Parker to put that in perspective.
     
    Greg Holland - Holland has regressed a bit from the quarter pole, and his numbers currently sit in line with his more recent 2015-2017 marks. He still doesn't look like the Holland of old, but for 3.25M, he's been cheap and effective. This is definitely still a win for AZ, and he'll likely be flipped for a lotto ticket by teams looking to replace busts on this list, but he's not pitching like a late pen option either.
     
    Shawn Kelley - Another nice find for the bargain price of 2.75M. Kelley has only pitched 32 innings at this point and would be a decent option in our pen. He's not elite, but he's gotten results to the tune of a 3.09 ERA. His biggest draw back has been the long ball. He'd be an upgrade over several members in our pen currently.
     
    Aaron Loup - The Padres got him for 1.4M and he's been perfect so far this season. The only real problem is that it's a 4 inning sample as he hit the IL in early April with elbow soreness.... and he's still there. I have to call this a bust at this point.
     
    Blake Parker - At the time of signing, I simply noted that I didn't mind it if this was not the main RP piece we've added. Sadly, it was, and it wasn't even the best move. I'm not tracking Ryne Harper here as he was signed to a minor league deal, but he's out performed Parker. Parker, on the other hand, has out performed most of the people I'm tracking. This is technically a win for the front office, but literally everyone here wants him upgraded. Parker's biggest problem has been home runs, though his peripherals are all well below what they were when he was a successful MLB reliever. I think he might be adequate if kept in lower leverage situations/mop up duty, but relying on him with any kind of consistency in high leverage situations would be a mistake.
     
    Oliver Perez - Perez signed a 2.5M deal with Cleveland. He has only pitched in 24 innings thus far. A quick search didn't find any injuries, but Cleveland is clearly not heavily using him. He's been acceptable for them with some pretty good peripherals backing an ERA of 3. His HR rate is a bit higher than one would like. This again is a great value signing and would be better than just a mop up guy.
     
    David Phelps - The Blue Jays signed him in hopes that he recovers from TJS at some point this year and pitches. He went under the knife last spring. Not a bad risk for 2.5M. He hadn't pitched at the quarter pole but now has 9.2 innings notched. This may end up being a good signing, time will tell. He hasn't pitched well enough to warrant someone giving up much in terms of prospects for him. Perhaps that changes in the next couple of weeks given the SSS issues at play here.
     
    Tony Sipp - Sipp signed for 1.25 for the Nats and has not been good. He's improved a bit on his quarter pole results, but he's pitched in only 16 innings thus far.
     
    Hunter Strickland - Strickland signed a 1.3M deal and has pitched all of 2 innings, and poorly only to hit the IL with an injury. He appears to be starting rehab at this point. Not a bad gamble, but a bust.
     
    Adam Warren - Warren has been a bust in 28.2 bad innings for SD. He's gotten worse as the season went on and is costing 2.5M. I doubt he fetches much value at the deadline.
     
    Summarizing the fliers, there were some good finds here. No one in this group falls into a late inning option, but several would be perfectly acceptable in the next tier. I count 5 guys that are successful and that would be desired by a number of teams if they were available. None of those guys, however, would be that elite help they needed, but would be acceptable tier 2 BP options. There are 5 busts here and one guy in the too soon to tell.
     
    In all, my conclusion hasn't changed much. FA relievers haven't been an option. Only Ottavino has lived up to his status at the top, though through the half way point there are a number of names that would fit nicely into the tier 2 mark. Statistically speaking, the fliers have performed the best so far... and that's not high praise. The front office might have been right in not plunking down good money for help here. The problem is that they will now shell out some decent prospects for help here.
  3. diehardtwinsfan
    Gaging value in relief pitichers is always a difficult task given that they are prone to issues with small sample size. Many relievers who were good one season will regress the next, and as we've seen with Blake Parker, guys who were nothing special can turn into a very good option.
     
    Regardless, it was, without question, a point of contention this offseason among TD readers about the front office getting more help for the pen. I personally beat this horse dead on numerous occasions. I was happy with the Parker signing, but made it clear that I didn't want this to be the main acquisition. The pen so far has not been as bad as some of us (myself included) thought. It has essentially been slightly better than league average if WAR is be believed, though its peripherals definitely say that there's room for improvement.
     
    As such, I'm going to wade into the dollars vs. development debate and take a look at the FA relievers from the 2018 season to see if it was worth spending the money. I'll split these out by contract value. That's a bit arbitrary, but it does speak to the general demand for these players. My main source is this ESPN list. I'm not going to pretend that I've found all of them, so apologies if I missed a few. I'm not going to touch minor league signings.
     
    The cream of the Crop:
    Kelvin Herrera - Herrera signed a 2/17 deal with Chicago and has so far been a bust, posting an ERA north of 5 out of the pen in 20 appearances so far this season. His K rate has been acceptable, but his BB rate has risen along with his WHIP.
    Andrew Miller - Another big name in the RP market, Miller has been, so far at least, a bust as well, posting a 4.80 ERA for the Cards after signing a 2/25 deal with an additional option. His K rate has improved this season but his WHIP has gotten worse with increases in hits, walks, and HRs per 9 innings.
    Adam Ottavino - Our first success story on the big name candidates comes from Ottavino, who thus far has been a dominant option in the back of the Yankees' pen. His control has been a bit worse than normal (walking 6.5 batters per 9), but his hit rate is an absurd 4.5 per 9 and his strike out rate has increased as well. So far at least the 3/27 contract he signed has been good for NY.
    Craig Kimbrel - He's still unsigned. So the book is still out.
    Jeurys Familia - Familia chose to remain with the Mets this offseason, and thus far hasn't rewarded the 3/30 contract he signed as his ERA is also north of 5 and his WHIP has skyrocketed due in large part to doubling his walk rate. His HR rate has doubled too thus far.
    Zach Britton - Britton made bank signing a 3/39 deal with the Yankees and has so far not disappointed. His K rate has increased substantially while the rest of his peripherals have remained pretty close to the same. His ERA is slightly lower as well.
    Joe Kelly - Kelly signed a 3/25 deal with the LAD and has been probably the worst of this bunch. His ERA sits over 8. His K rate has dropped and he's seen large increases in both his hit and HR rates in his 16 appearances. His walk has dropped though.
    David Robertson - Robertson signed a 2/23 deal with Philly and has been a bust so far. He's pitched in only 7 innings and has been shelled. He's currently on the shelf with elbow sorness.

    In all, there have only been two hits of the 7 who signed in this group. I cannot emphasize enough that SSS is a huge factor here, but only 2 of these guys would have helped our pen... and unfortunately both are pitching for NY.
     
    Second Tier
    Justin Wilson - Wilson was a cheap grab for the mets, signing a 2/10 deal. Risk aside, he hasn't performed well thus far posting a 4.8 ERA in only 10 games. His peripherals are all over the place and seems to be buoyed largely by a couple extra home runs. His K rate and BB rates are both down this year.
    Joakim Soria - Soria signed a 2/15 deal with Oakland, and while the ERA is not pretty, his peripherals are in line with his career averages. Both his K rate and BB rates are up a bit and he has yet to give up a HR in his 21 innings. I'm not sure I'd call this a bust at this point as I think he's probably a victim of bad luck, but his 5.14 ERA is a bit ugly.
    Cody Allen - Allen signed a 1 year deal with the Angels and so far has not lived up to his 8.5M salary. His HR and BB rates have skyrocketed though he still maintains a sexy K rate. His 5.54 ERA is something we can all live without.
    Jesse Chavez - Chavez signed a 2/8 deal with Texas, and thus far every one of his peripherals have trended in the wrong direction. His ERA is north of 5.
    Trevor Rosenthal - Rosenthal has under performed his 1/7 deal and is currently in the minors rehabbing due to a viral infection. His 3 inning ML sample is a bit too small to gage at this point, though the results weren't good.

    There are only 5 names in this tier, and so far every team wouldn't mind a do over. I could see a couple of these names evening out over the course of this season, but none of these guys would have helped us much at this point.
     
    Cheap Fliers
    Brad Brach - Brach has gotten results for the Cubs, but his peripherals say he's on borrowed time. His walk rate has doubled and his K rate is about at career norms. Still for 3 million dollar deal, Brach hasn't been bad.
    Zach Duke - yes, that Zach Duke. He signed a 2M deal with the Reds and has been horrible in 15 innings so far.
    Cory Gearrin - the Mariners have, thus far, gotten a bargin with Gearrin for the 1.4M value of his contract. His ERA is a bit higher than we'd like for an RP at 3.63 but thus far he's performed. His K rate is way up as is his walk rate. Gearrin would be an upgrade over a couple players in our pen. Not bad for the money.
    Greg Holland - I have to tip my cap to those on the Holland bandwagon along with Arizona for picking him for only 3.25M. He's been worth it posting a 1.80 ERA. Despite an elevated walk rate, his WHIP is down. His K rate is up. He's given up less hits and kept the ball in the park in his 15 innings. He would be one of our best relievers.
    Shawn Kelley - Another nice find for the bargain price of 2.75M. Kelley has only pitched 14 innings, but has given up 9 hits and 2 runs in that span allowing for a 1.29 ERA.
    Aaron Loup - The Padres got him for 1.4M and he's been perfect so far this season. The only real problem is that it's a 4 inning sample as he hit the IL in early April with elbow soreness. The book is still out here.
    Blake Parker - We know him. So far a win for the front office.
    Oliver Perez - Perez signed a 2.5M deal with Cleveland. He has only pitched in 10 innings to the tune of a 4.5 ERA thus far. Not a bad find in the value category. His peripherals all look pretty good and he's one of the few pitchers whose BB rate has dropped so far this season. I'm going with a bit of bad luck on the ERA, but he wouldn't present much of an upgrade to our pen.
    David Phelps - The Blue Jays signed him in hopes that he recovers from TJS at some point this year and pitches. He went under the knife last spring. Not a bad risk for 2.5M. He's yet to pitch.
    Tony Sipp - Sipp signed for 1.25 for the Nats and has not been good. He's appeared in 17 games and only pitched 9 innings with an ERA of 6.
    Hunter Strickland - Strickland signed a 1.3M deal and has pitched all of 2 innings, and poorly. He's out a couple months due to a grade 2 strain of a lat muscle.
    Adam Warren - Warren has been OK for the Padres with a 3.72 ERA. That's not special, nor are his peripherals, but he hasn't been horrible either. Not bad for 2.5M.

    Of the 12 names on this list, there are only 3 clear misses at this point. Phelps was not expected to necessarily be pitching yet, so I'd say the jury is still out here. That may turn into a good deal for the Jays. Given their season though, he's likely going to be traded if he's pitching this summer. Holland, Kelley, and Parker have all been quite good for their teams. The other 6 fall under too soon to tell or value signings in that they haven't been bad, though they wouldn't necessarily be huge upgrades either.
     
    One other trend that I noticed is that most relievers seemed to have noticeable increases in their BB rates. I'm not sure if that's more on an emphasis on Ks (which also were generally up), but relief pitching outcomes seemed much more skewed to higher BB and K rates over these pitcher's career norms. That appears, thus far, to the be the case across MLB as well, as RPs in general are averaging 3.93 BB per 9 along with 9.42 K per 9. Both are thus far significantly higher than last year.
     
    Obviously, with these small samples, it's a bit too soon to tell on all of them, but for those of us (myself included) who wanted the Twins to do more, the results say that they would have likely missed.. The top tier has had some good performances, but has ultimately disappointed. The bottom tier has had about the same percentage of hits as the top tier along with some value guys who have performed as well as the top tier signings for much less. As much as I hate to say it, it looks like our front office hasn't done a bad job in this area.
  4. diehardtwinsfan
    103. That's truly a terrible number, and it's been some time since the Twins have been able to earn the top pick overall. This season was an abomination, especially given the high hopes that Twins fans had coming in. There's no need to really go over what went wrong.There's a number of things, but pitching most definitely tops the list. It finished second and third as well.
     
    Falvey and the new GM (presumably Levine at this point) will likely have their hands full as they tackle what will be an interesting offseason. The offensive core of the team is largely there, and if they don't move quickly, they will be looking at decent pitching by the time the offense leaves I'm going to assume we won't be a playoff team in 2017. We might repeat 2015 if things fall right. I do think the team as a whole underperformed, but not to the tune of a 30 game swing that they would need to make in order to be competitive. I'm not going to punt on 2017, but I am going to commit to getting some young pitching and see what we have with the guys who are ready.
     
     
    Tender/nontender:
     
    I'm going to tender Gibson, Escobar, Kintzler, and Pressley. They are all relatively cheap, and while none were really great, they've shown promise to varying degrees. The pen wasn't very good, but with plenty of help on the way, I think you have to hold out hope for some of them.
     
    On the nontender side, I'd attempt to trade Plouffe, Santiago, and Milone. I suspect that all will be non-tendered, but this definitely qualifies for the take what you can get... and I'm not expecting much.
     
    Mauer/Perkins/Hughes:
     
    I start dialing Mauer's role back a bit. I'd want him playing against RHers as often as possible, but I'm telling him to plan on playing some 3rd and occasional OF. Vargas earned a shot to start and I want to see what we have in Park. He was impressive in April, got hurt and tried playing through it. He was pretty good when demoted to Rochester and re-injured the same wrist injury leading to surgery and shut down. He's going to get a shot. If either Vargas or Park fails, that puts Mauer back at 1B/DH. Bottom line is that I don't want the 2 years remaining on Mauer's contract to prevent the Twins from seeing what they have in Vargas and Park. The same goes true for Palka and Walker in the minors, as I fully expect to see one of them in the majors at some point.
     
    Hughes will be slated for the pen, with a chance to earn a starting role. His injury is a difficult one to return from, and as such he's not in my plans. Perkins is not in my plans either. He will certainly get a shot to regain his old role should he be healthy this spring, but both of these guys have huge question marks. Perkins is only signed through 2017, so he's an easy one going forward as he's likely going to spend some or all of it on the 60 day DL.
     
    Trades:
     
    On the trade side, I'm firmly shopping Dozier. He will get value, the question is what. The Yankees might be a good fit, but I doubt Sanchez in on the table and most of their good pitching prospects will be starting in AA, where most of our good ones will start. For now, I'm going to pretend that the Pirates will trade Glasnow and prospects for him. I don't know if they would do that, but that is the type of trade I'd want to target, namely high upside pitching that is major league ready or close to it. I wouldn't be against a Yankees trade that netted some guys like Justus Sheffield, but that wouldn't be my first plan (unless the Yankees were to offer Gary Sanchez).
     
    Santana would be shopped as well. I'd seek more catching help here than pitching, as no team with MLB ready high upside pitching is going to trade to trade it to acquire a MLB pitcher. They would certainly trade guys in the lower minors, which I'd be fine with, but I'd hope Santana could add some competition in at the C spot. If not, I'd take a nice package of prospects if one was offered. I would be just as willing to keep Santana around too, but I do not think his value will be any higher this July, and there's plenty of risk should the team not move him.
     
     
    Coaching changes:
     
    While I suspect Falvey and the new GM will stick with Molitor for 2017, I'd probably make new on field management a priority. After watching this team, I'm convinced that Molitor is not the guy you want at the helm for managing young help. His treatment of guys like Berrios, Polanco, and Chargois this season was head scratching at best. While I recognize that a manager doesn't have a whole lot of options to work with when it comes to getting performance out of young major league players, I don't think Molitor showed that he was suited for that task. My preference is to find a manager who specializes in developing young talent, as transitioning and development are probably the biggest needs this organization faces. I would likely look closely at some of Joe Maddon's lieutenants in Chicago, and I would give one of them the top spot.
     
    International:
     
    If Shohei Otani is posted, I would bid heavily on him. Any potential Cuban posting would be of interest too. Those could potentially change the landscape of the final roster, but I'm not going to assume any are on the roster come opening day.
     
    Free Agency:
     
    I like what Buxton did in September, but one month isn't going to change my opinion on him that much. I'm getting a potential 1 year filler that can serve as a starter or capable 4th OF, and I will not be handing Buxton the job. He will be the starter if he earns it or in Rochester if he does not. I would target a guy like Austin Jackson or Carlos Gomez. Players like that are likely going to get a 1 year contract to rebuild value, and should be able to be shipped away relatively easily should Buxton finally earn the job.
     
    I would sign one of Gregg Holland, Drew Storen, or some other buy low RP candidate to bolster the pen.
     
    40 man additions/removal:
    As of this writing, 38 names are on the 40 man. Dozier is traded. I'm assuming that Santana ends up being traded as well, though I'm not certain he will get that catcher that they need. That takes us to 36. Non tendering or trading Plouffe and Santiago (Milone is already gone) takes us to 34.
     
    I suspect one of Hughes/Perkins returns and gets off the 60 day, but I think the odds clearly say at least one is likely to be gone for 2017 as well. Likewise, a free agent CF on a one year deal takes up a spot, as does a reliever like Holland/Storen. Regardless, you cannot count on that, so you have to keep their spots for now.
     
    Other DFA guys: Centeno, Grossman, DSan, Boshers, Landa. This takes us from 34 down to 29.
    Players to add: Garver, Granite, Palka, Romero, Jorge, Zach Jones, Vielma or Goodrum (as I need a MI backup). I leave Thrope off b/c I doubt anyone takes him, but if I'm unsure, he's a must add. That brings us back to 35. I'm assuming that we get 1 major league pitcher for Dozier and for fun, let's just assume a catcher is picked up too. F
     
    Finally, since I used FA to pick up a 1 year option for CF as well as an RP, I'm up to 40. I've also got some flexibility in guys like Murphy/Wimmers/Tonkin who I'd be quick to drop if needed, but would be willing to give a chance as long as there isn't a huge roster crunch. I'm fully expecting Hughes and/or Perkins to make their way back to the 60 day DL this spring, but you cannot really do anything about that until it happens.
     
    Final Roster:
     
    C - Murphy/acquisition/Garver
    1B - Park/Mauer
    DH - Vargas/Mauer
    2B - Polanco
    SS - Escobar
    3B - Sano/Mauer
    LF - Rosario/Mauer
    CF - Acquisition/Buxton
    RF - Kepler/Mauer
     
    Bench: Mauer, Vielma, Garver or Murphy, CF acquisition (note that if Buxton starts in the minors, I'd likely consider bringing Palka up and letting Rosario be the backup CF)
     
    SP - Gibson, May, potential Dozier acquisition piece, Berrios, and Mejia.
    RB - Kintzler, Chargois, Pressley, FA acquisition, Hughes, Tonkin, rotating spot between minor league options (Melotakis, Duffey, Hildenberger, Burdi, Reed).
  5. diehardtwinsfan
    I like doing prospect lists sometime after the draft and after some rookie ball has been played. In part because it's a bit of a slow time of the year in the minor league forums and in the last few years, it's been relatively slow in the major league forums. This is a link to my top 25 from last season. Most of these guys are still in the system, and that has a lot to do with the fact that they were mostly excelling at the lower levels. That has changed with a lot of guys showing good results in AA/AAA, and I suspect Terry Ryan is going to have some interesting offseason choices to make this winter. First, let's start with the graduations:
     
    Trevor May (6th) - I've been more of a believer in May then a lot of people. I still think that long term, he could profile as a 1/2 type, though likely more a 2 at this point. His major league season thus far has been pretty successful for his first full year campaign. I suspect over the next couple of season that he will improve on that significantly. Regardless, at this point, May is a nice asset in the rotation and would be coveted by a lot of teams if he was available.
     
    Kennys Vargas (10) - I suppose the 1B/DH could still technically flirt with being listed, but after spending most of the second half and a part of this season in the majors, I'm removing him altogether. He definitely still has some work to do, but he's definitely still middle of the order potential. I suspect he will be a full time regular come 2016.
     
    Eddie Rosario (11) - Rosario is still a work in progress at the plate, but he's a nice defensive OF and is making enough contact to stay with the club. He's likely to be this year's Danny Santana, and I half expect him to return to the minors at some point, but he's done a good job to remind us why he used to be so highly rated.
    Also removed from last year's list was Sean Gilmartin who was released this spring. He was 16th on my list last season and is having a reasonably decent season in his rookie year as a relief pitcher for the Mets. Now for the good stuff:
     
    _________________
    1) Miguel Sano 3B (2) - Sano continues to be a work in progress at 3B, but his bat is probably pretty close to being ready. He got off to a slow start given the rust, but since the calendar turned to May, his OPS has been greater than .900 and he's hitting plenty of home runs and doubles to continue cementing him as one of the leagues better power hitting prospects. He has plenty of power and excellent plate discipline. He does strike out quite a bit, but he's good at laying off pitches out of the zone and generates quite a few walks as well. His brief trial has gone well enough to say that his bat is ready. His real problem right now is that he's blocked at the major league level. He can probably play some DH in the short term, but in the long term, the Twins need him in the field to make room for Vargas and/or Arcia. Trevor Plouffe is firmly entrenched at 3rd and has been very good. Joe Mauer is at first, and while Mauer hasn't been that good this year, I highly doubt the team moves him. Sano should however, be an immediate, middle of the order impact bat for this team at a position in the league where OPS is weak. In his prime, I suspect he may have a few MVP type seasons and I expect him to be long term fixture on a contending team.
     
    2) Byron Buxton CF (1)- Buxton got off to a slow start after missing a season. His defense is pretty good, but he's struggled with breaking pitches. Starting in May, he really turned it on posting an OPS > .900 in AA ball and was called up to the Twins. He struggles more with major league pitching than Sano does, and as such his bat is definitely not ready at this point, but given that no one is really blocking him, he's going to get every opportunity to succeed. The reason why he's still on this list has more to do with a lengthy DL stay that has kept him off the field. That said, I fully expect to see him take a big step forward in 2016, though he may find himself spending some time in AAA at first. Long term, he's likely to be an elite bat and elite glove at a key defensive position. I see him more as a leadoff type, but if his power increases, I could see him becoming a 3 hitter. He could likely have some MVP seasons as well and should be a cornerstone player for a contending team.
     
     
    3) Jose Berrios SP (5) - Berrios has done nothing but prove the naysayers wrong. He was a compensation pick out of high school whose biggest knock was size and a relatively flat fastball that kept him from going higher on the lists. He dominated rookie ball, which given his age is a good thing, though his first year in the MWL was nothing special (it wasn't bad, just not that great). In 2014 he really broke out, adding a few ticks to his fastball and even making it up for a brief AAA stint. He returned to AA in 2015 and has been every bit as good, and he was recently promoted to AAA. He has mid 90s speed on his fastball and has excellent control. He strikes out more than a batter per inning. I'm not quite sure he is an ACE, but I do think he will be a very good number 2 at the major league level. His problem at the moment is that the Twins have a bit of a glut in pitching. I know that seems rather odd given the org's history, but as it stands right now, we have too many starters at the major league level and a few decent ones in Rochester as well. I suspect that trades this offseason will free up some space there, but Berrios may have a problem on the ETA front. I'm guessing he ETAs in 2016 as an injury call up and will likely be in the rotation full time at some point in 2017 after the team manages to trade either Nolasco or Santana. This might be the main casualty of the FA spending the front office has done for pitchers as it's going to be hard to work in some of these younger pitchers when Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana are pretty much assured spots and Gibson and May are both pitching well themselves.
     
    4) Max Kepler OF/1B (23) - I had soured quite a bit on Kepler because other than a nice stint in rookie ball, he really hadn't done much in terms of production. At this point last year, he had just started to turn a corner in FTM and that could easily be attributed to a small sample. He kept it up for the remainder of the year and has responded to one of the harder minor league jumps by putting on a show in AA all season long being one of their better hitters. While he hasn't been launching home runs all over the place like some of his counterparts, he has speed, some power, and can play all 3 OF positions (though he's probably not an ideal CF). He isn't a huge walk machine, but he also doesn't strike out much either. His K/BB ratio this season in Chattanooga is nearly a 1 to 1 ratio. Kepler has that high ceiling that people covet, and given that he won't be 23 until spring training next year, I think it's likely that he's going to have a very nice major league career. This is his second season on the 40 man, and he has 2 more before he's out of options. I suspect he's likely going to finish up in AAA at some point this season and have the ability to audition for a major league role in 2016. I expect him to see his first call up next year.
     
    5) Tyler Jay (unrnk) SP - There's a lot to like from this kid, with his biggest question mark being how his velocity will hold up as a full time starter. He worked primarily as a relief pitcher in college, but this lefty has a 4 pitch mix that could all be plus pitches. He already has a pretty high workload for a college reliever and will finish this season in the relief role, possibly in AA at some point. I expect him to be sent back to FTM this spring and work there as a starter. Like the other pitchers in the top 10, the lefty has top of the rotation potential, especially if he can pitch in the mid 90s (he's currently upper 90s as a reliever). His pitches all leave from the same arm slot giving him a deceptive delivery and making it harder for opposing hitters to pick up on his off speed repertoire.
     
    6) Alex Meyer (3) SP/RP - This season has been difficult for Meyer, and I'm willing to give him a pass this year given his potential, but to say it has been disappointing is an understatement. Meyer has high 90s stuff with a devastating off speed pitch and a change up that's a work in progress. His problem has been the dreaded 'consistency', as he's seen his walk rate climb as he moved up the ladder, with things falling a part this season in AAA. He moved to the pen, which I'm assuming is temporary, and has had a bit of a resurgence in Rochester, but he's yet to replicate his season last year, which is not good. I think this is probably worst of it and suspect he'll start to improve a bit, though I suspect he's going to spend a good chunk of 2016 at Rochester again. His biggest problem right now is that he doesn't throw enough strikes. Hopefully he can figure that out as that will be the difference between being an ace or having a major league career.
     
    7) Stephen Gonsalves (13) SP - The hard throwing lefty was originally considered to be late first round type talent in the 2013 draft, but fell due to some minor off field issues as well as signability concerns. He's been rather good in the Minnesota system with a career WHIP today of just over 1.0 and a K/9 north of 10. He's a lefty with mid 90s stuff, so at this point, a floor in the pen seems very realistic. Ceiling wise, he has top of the rotation potential. He's just moved to high A, so he has a ways to go before he hits the majors, but he's likely looking at AA at some point next season.
     
    8) Kohl Stewart (4) SP - Stewart was pretty good in his first career year in Cedar Rapids last season, though his K rate left a bit to be desired. He hasn't exactly stood out in high A this year, and that K rate has actually been worse this year (though it has been improving of late). That said, he has 4 pitches that are potential plus pitches, has mid 90s heat, and is 20 years old this year, much younger than his counterparts. He's also never really been a full time pitcher, so people need to be a bit more patient with him as he has more to learn than most prospects. But with that in mind, he has top of the rotation potential and should not be ignored. I do think at some point he's going to have to put things together, whether that is through repeating high A next season or continuing to aggressively push him, I'm not sure. I suspect he returns to high A and will be in line for a midseason promotion to AA if things go well. The Twins have another 3 seasons with him before he's a 40 man decision, so there's plenty of time. That said, there are a lot of guys who are succeeding at much higher levels, with similar potential. That's a good thing, and it's also a big reason for his drop. One thing that's been somewhat encouraging, is that he has been striking out more guys of late. Perhaps he's putting it together, who knows. Only time will tell there.
     
    9) Chih-Wei Hu (14) SP - Hu was a pleasant surprise last year posting some fairly impressive results for Cedar Rapids, though at age 20, I ranked him a bit lower on the list. Not that 20 is a bad age for the Midwest league, but he there were several younger pitchers also doing quite well in the MWL. Hu responded to the FSL this season by nothing short of sheer dominance, continuing his breakout. He gets plenty of Ks (though he's seen a significant drop in his K rate as the season has worn on) and limits both walks and the long ball quite effectively. From what I've read, the righty throws in the mid 90s with a decent assortment of off speed offerings. High A is a bit of a pitchers haven, so his transition to AA will likely tell us where he's going to ultimately fit on the pecking order, but right now, I still think he can be a top half of the rotation arm, and he has done nothing to dissuade that opinion.
     
    10) Jorge Polanco 2B/SS (6) - Perhaps I'm a bit cynical, but I'm not quite as high on Polanco as others. He does get the credit of doing this in an up the middle position, though his defense from what I understand still needs considerable work. To his credit, he's 21 in AAA. He's putting up decent numbers, but not much in terms of power or plate discipline. His OPS, however is nothing special. While that's pretty good for a SS, it's not stand out, high ceiling type and his defense is presently not good enough at the position to make it worthwhile. His other real problem is that he's burned 2 options already. I'm guessing he may be one of those guys eligible for four options, which means he won't be forcing a decision until 2018, at which point he should certainly be ready. He's received 2 very brief call ups, but those were more for emergency situations. I would probably have him finish out the season in AA and then start in AAA next year. I suspect he will receive another call up at some point in 2016, and hopefully for more than an emergency. He may be the SS of the future, but in all honesty, I could see him being dangled with someone else to pickup someone with a bit higher ceiling. While SS is not a strength of the organization, there are options in the high minors and the majors. Eduardo Escobar is putting up league average offensive numbers and playing average to better defense (though for some inexplicable reason, he's not getting as much playing time at SS one would like. Santana and Polanco should be competing for the role extensively, and both of the ability to break out and be an above average player there. From the Twins standpoint, patience may be a virtue as I suspect one of the two of them will eventually claim that role.
     
    To summarize the top 10, I'm rather impressed with the fact that only 2 guys on this list do not play up the middle defensive positions. Technically, Sano at 3B still occupies a premium position, just not up the middle, and Kepler could play CF in a pinch, both of whom look like they could potentially play at an elite level at some point in their careers. There are also six pitchers listed, all of whom could slot in as 1-3 type pitchers to complement a young core that already holds two very promising pitchers in Gibson and May. While there is a bit of a glut in a few of these positions, the advantage here is that these guys could be used to net some premium talent at another position of need. With that in mind though, they already have a core of higher ceiling guys in Arcia, Rosario, Gibson, May, and Vargas to complement excellent production from Plouffe and Dozier. This team is likely going to win a lot of games over the next 5-10 seasons and will have both depth to whether injury as well as the ability to acquire help wherever they need it.
     
    11) Nick Gordon (7) SS - Last year's number 1 pick has been aggressively moved just like the previous two picks in Buxton and Stewart. Gordon has not done as well. Granted, he's young for his league and has managed to hold his own, but he hasn't impressed much. He's likely to stick at SS, which elevates him quite a bit in the prospect world. To be fair though, he's 19 and in low A. Expecting him to do what Buxton did is probably unfair. Offensively, we saw a nice uptick in his numbers for June and so far in July his OPS is well over .800, so he may be figuring it out. He's probably not going to be the next coming of A-Rod, but an average to slightly above bat playing average to above average defense is still very valuable. His drop here has more to do with the ascension of other prospects and should not be considered an indictment on his play. Granted there's room to go here, but he'd be a very valuable prospect in a number of systems.
     
    12) Travis Harrison (16) 3B/LF - Harrison, despite his age, gets little love in the prospect world. He was snubbed for the all star game in AA despite being a very good 3B this season. He's cooled off a bit of late, which is probably part of the reason he gets overlooked, but he's still been a very good performer. He's 22, in AA, holds a career minor league OPS over .750 and keeps his OBP more than .100 points above his average. He has some power to go with it. He's been overshadowed by the likes of Sano, Kepler, and Walker. He has the requisite skills needed to be a major leaguer. His ceiling is an above average major league regular. He probably won't be a star, but it's quite possible that he has an all star type season or two at some point in his career. Given the Twins depth presently, Harrison might find himself with another team at some point, as there really isn't a place to put him if his higher ceiling counter parts can establish themselves.
     
    13) Adam Brett Walker (17) RF - Walker is one of the more polarizing prospects at Twins Daily as he has put up some rather gaudy numbers at each stop. He's on pace this year to club more than 30 home runs, which is pretty impressive for a minor leaguer, and he's led his league in home runs for the last couple of seasons. Bottom line, he has 80 raw power. The down side is his inability to take a walk and the fact that he strikes out a lot. Despite posting an OPS over .900 in AA, his peripherals have actually worsened, with a strikeout to walk ratio more than 5 to 1. On one end, AA doesn't seem to be challenging him, but on the other end, he's getting worse in the areas that he needs to be improving. He isn't a 40 man decision until the end of the 2016 season, which is good. I suspect he will remain in AA and start next season in Rochester. How that plays out is yet to be seen. Perhaps he can be that outlier that defies statistics, but I suspect major league pitchers will do a good job exposing those problems. His defense is pretty suspect as well, so carving out a role as a defensive OF won't be happening. Given that he's performing at AA, he likely has a floor as a late inning pinch hit all or nothing type bat, which isn't a bad person to bring in during a high leverage situation where pitchers have to be a bit more careful when they pitch. As a ceiling, there's no question that he can be a star if he figures out those contact issues, but time is not really on his side anymore, as he still is not learning plate discipline.
     
    14) Lewis Thorpe (12) SP - Thorpe is another high ceiling prospect who would likely be quite a bit higher on this list had it not been for a UCL injury that required Tommy John surgery. He's out all year after putting together a fairly impressive start for a 17/18 year old in the MWL. His overall numbers weren't spectacular, but when you look at his month to month numbers, you can see improvement. His 18/19 season is lost and he'll start in the MWL again I assume next year. The lefty throws in the mid 90s and could be another top of the rotation arm.
     
    15) Tyler Duffey (21) SP - Duffey continues to defy expectations as he moves up the ladder as well as improving on those peripheral stats that we tend to pay attention to. The converted closer probably profiles more as a #3 ceiling, but he's looking more and more to have a back of the rotation floor. These types of guys are pretty valuable. He does have some decent velocity, and has been able to raise his minor league career K rate to around 7.4. His walk rate is pretty miniscule as he's hovered around 2 this season and has a minor league career rate under that number. Now in Rochester, he's another arm that can be counted on for depth and possibly a spot in the rotation.
     
    16) Josmil Pinto (8) C - Pinto is the first catcher on this list, and his play this season has been less than impressive. He was kept in AAA to work on his glove, but his bat this season has been pretty bad as well. Given he has a minor league career OPS of over .800, I'm hoping his offensive play this year is simply a victim of some bad luck, recovering from a concussion, and the fact that he's working hard on his glove. I had hoped he would have graduated from this list to be a counter part to Suzuki, but thus far, that hasn't been the plan. At 26, he's not really young anymore and his option status is going to force the Twins to find a spot for him shortly. He should be able to be part of a decent catching tandem, with an obvious bent towards his offense.
     
    17) Wander Javier SS (unrnk) - Remember when the Twins signed Miguel Sano and he was instantaneously their top prospect? That alone was a testimony to how bad their farm system was at this point. The Twins made news on July 2nd signing Javier to a team international FA record of $4 million dollars, which will make Javier a very watched prospect. At age 16, there are lots of questions, particularly if he will stick at short, and there's some disagreeing opinions among scouts that have watched him. On the top side, he should be average to above with all of his tools with as many as 3 60 grade tools when he matures. That's pretty good as a SS, as he could be a middle order bat at a premium position. Of course, he's 16 and hasn't played professionally yet, so time tell.
     
    18) Taylor Rogers (unrnk) SP - I haven't given Rogers a lot of love due to what I think is a relatively low ceiling (back of the rotation arm), but Rogers continues to perform and owns a career minor league ERA around 3 with a career K/9 around 7. The ERA is standout, which Rogers gets by minimizing hits and walks, essential for any pitcher, but he lacks the swing and miss stuff that makes me think it will play as anything more than a 4/5 type guy in the majors. That said, he's now in AAA and putting up numbers similar to his minor league numbers. At this point I'd say his ceiling is probably a #3, which isn't a bad thing, but he's still more likely to be a 4/5. That said, given his age and performance I think the chance of hitting the floor is pretty high. He's blocked by a lot of guys in the Twins system, so I wouldn't be surprised if his career really takes off with another team. He could also be moved into a relief role as his numbers against lefties stand out. It's possible that this would add a tick or two to his FB and he could be a dominant reliever.
     
    19) Mitch Garver (15) C - He got off to a pretty bad start but has really turned it up since June. I'm glad given the fact that catching is pretty weak in the system right now. Garver looks to be a good defensive catcher but can swing the bat a bit. He's not a power guy, but he does keep the OBP up and hit a lot of doubles. That's pretty valuable given how bad ML catchers hit. His first two months were pretty bad, but he cracked an .836 OPS in June and his July OPS is over .700. He may be one of those guys who needs some time to adjust to new levels. AA will be the big test for his bat.
     
    20) Nick Burdi (10) RP - Nick Burdi has lost the luster that he had last year in what has definitely been a difficult year for him. While his strike out numbers were good in AA, he was waking a batter every other inning on average and giving up way too many hits to make it work. He brings 100 MPH heat, but as well all know, major league hitters can hit a 100 MPH pitch. That doesn't mean that there's no hope for him. He's been very successful in Fort Meyers since his demotion, and given that the Twins are working on his mechanics he will likely be just fine. What it really means is that he's probably not going to be in the majors this year, and the soonest he will be auditioning for them will be next year. I hold out hope that Burdi will be promoted back to AA at some point this season and will be much better than what he was.
     
    Last year, it was said that the 11-20 Twins list would be better than a lot of team's top 10 lists. With graduations (and expected graduations), I don't think this statement will hold true for many teams, except those with dreadful farm systems, but there is some really nice depth here, and this 11-20 list is still quite a bit better than most teams 11-20 lists. It's a nice mix with 4 pitchers, one of whom could be that coveted ace, 2 catchers, a SS, and some OF/3B help as well. A good number of these guys are high enough in the org to guarantee a major league look at some point when the need arises, or command enough value to be shipped away for something. Quite a few have higher ceilings as well, but at this level, there's lots of question marks. The highest ceiling of this section (Thorpe) underwent Tommy John this spring. Walker has impressive power, but his inability to lay off pitches limits the type of impact he will have in the majors. Harrison looks like a Trevor Plouffe type prospect: above average, may take some time to develop, and will likely put up some quietly decent numbers. I suspect some of these guys will take some big steps forward next year, and a couple might even crack some top 100 lists in the coming years.
     
    21) JT Chargois (unrnk) RP - In the same mold as Burdi, Chargois can really dial up the heat to around triple digits. He's a tad older and is seeing his first taste of AA (and struggling a bit), but he's another reliever that could conceivably be in Minnesota in shorter order. His career has been thus far plague by injuries, which is largely what has kept him from moving up faster. He gets lots of Ks and keeps the home run rate low, allowing only 1 in 48 career major league innings. Chargois has potential to be a back of the bullpen stud. I expect him to restart in AA and likely be a mid-season promotion to Rochester in 2016.
     
    22) Jermaine Palacios (unrnk) SS - During the lean years, a kid like this would be a top 10 prospect. He just turned 19 (July 19), and carries an OPS as a SS over .900 which is pretty impressive, even for a kid in the GCL. Rookie ball stats certainly can be taken with a grain of salt, but there's something to be said about a guy who is doing it when he's younger than his league. Recent examples in our history include Sano, Rosario, and Arcia, all of whom murdered opposing pitches in the GCL. Palacios hasn't been quite that good, but he's been significantly better than the league at an important defensive position. He might yet get a shot in Elizabethon, but will likely be there next year or possibly even the MWL next year.
     
    23) Levi Michael (unrnk) 2B - After years of sub par performance, I had largely written the former first round pick off; however, Michael broke out last season and has continued his break out this year in AA posting an OPS over .800 with a keen eye for plate discipline. He doesn't need to be a great hitter to make the majors as a 2B, but he's blocked at the major league level by Dozier and has lots of competition as well. He's a 40 man decision this offseason, and I have a hard time believing he's going to be left exposed, though I could see him packaged as a means to acquire major league help or potentially international FA dollars as there's a bit of a glut at his position. That said, given his performance at AA, he's got a very real chance of making the majors in some capacity.
     
    24) Luis Arraez (unrnk) 2B - Arraez is Palacios' double play partner on the GCL Twins. The slightly younger counterpart is also putting up good numbers in the GCL at an even younger age, as he won't turn 19 until next season. His OPS isn't quite as impressive, and his performance has tailed off of late, but he makes very good contact with a decent amount of speed. He too is a ways off, but is thus far out performing his much higher priced international FA counterparts.
     
    25) Brandon Peterson (unrnk) RP - Peterson is finishing up his second full season with the Twins after being drafted in the 13th round in 2013. His minor league career to date has a K/9 of over 12, though he is not quite as stingy with the walks as some would like. He does induce a lot of weak contact as his career hits/9 sits at an absurd value UNDER 6. He's given up 1 home run in the last 2 seasons combined. His transition to AA hasn't come without bumps, but he's still putting up some very respectable numbers as a 23 year old in AA.
     
    26) Mat Batts (unrnk) SP - The 2014 17th rounder is having an excellent season, one that has been a surprise given how far down he was drafted. He's maintained an ERA around 2 across both low A and high A and gets a fair amount of Ks to go with it. To go with that, he keeps the home runs down (2 HRs in 100 IP this season so far) and is stingy with the walks as well with a BB/9 of around 2 this season across both levels. He earned a mid season promotion to Fort Meyers and has adjusted seamlessly. The lefty should start in AA next season, which will be a very good test to indicate what his future might hold for the Twins. Given his age and draft status, you won't see him on many prospect lists this year, but if he continues dominating hitters, he's going to be a much more known name next year at this time.
     
    27) Travis Blankenhorn (unrnk) 3B - The 2015 3rd rounder impressed right out of the gate posting pretty respectable numbers in a 14 game sample at the GCL. This earned him a promotion to E-town, where he's done even better. He's 18, and is forcing himself into the Cedar Rapids picture for the 2016 season, so there's a lot to like about this young 3B. His plate discipline has been respectable thus far and he has a modest amount of power to go with it. The ceiling seems fairly high for this kid.
     
    28) Amaurys Minier (22) 1B/3B/OF - As a big bonus sign in the international market, Minier has shown occasional flashes to justify the signing. However, his overall result line has been less than impressive. He's young, so there's plenty of time/potential here, but he's going to remain lower on this list until he can start hitting more consistently. His batting average at E-town currently sits right around the Mendoza line. At 19, he has plenty of room for improvement.
     
    29) Huascar Ynoa (unrnk) SP - Ynoa was another big bonus sign from last year and has been pretty decent in the DSL in his age 17 season. He's got to work a bit more on his control, but this is somewhat normal for a 17 year old kid. I like the upside, but at his current age he has a long long way to go before achieving that.
     
    30) Lewin Diaz (unrnk) 1B - Diaz was another high priced international free agent signing for around 1.2 M during the 2013 international signing period. He impressed during his age 17 stint in the DSL, but his first taste of action in the states has been less than impressive. His average is low, though he has pretty good plate discipline maintaining an OBP .100 higher than his average. His power, however, has been non-existent. That could definitely be a small sample, as he's only 20 games into his season, and at his age it's not too much of a concern just yet.
     
     
    HM: Aaron Sleegers, Jake Reed (20), Zach Jones, Jean Carlos Arias, Trey Cabbage, Miguel Gonzalez, Alex Swim, Jason Kanzler, Max Murphy, AJ Achter, Dallas Gallant, Trevor Hildenberger, Zach Granite, Niko Goodrum, Trey Vavra, Tanner English, Danny Ortiz, Engelb Vielma, and Cameron Boozer.
     
    This is my 3rd prospect list, and I have to admit that the deeper I go, the harder this gets. There's lots of deserving guys who have been left off the list, and at the lower ranks, there really isn't much that distinguishes them. I try to find a nice balance between results and ceiling, though once you get into the lower ranks, ceiling tends to take precedence. While the reality says that many of these guys won't make it, what I really like is that the Twins system is pretty deep everywhere except catcher and the minor leagues should do a good job providing impact pieces either in trades or in call ups for the majors during their resurgence. As a team, the Twins look posed to be a force in the AL central as soon as next season and will likely remain there for a good 5-10 years given the depth they have in their minors.
  6. diehardtwinsfan
    Now that the season has wound down and the Twins have finished their fourth consecutive 90 loss season, it's time to start looking at a plan for 2015. While the 2014 season did not look so great in the record book, there were some very nice building blocks for the team. For one, the offense did quite well. This is especially noteworthy given that at the beginning of the season, the offense was, to put it mildly, horrid. The improvement was generated by seeing a healthy Joe Mauer return to the team and successful debuts of Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas. Oswaldo Arcia was also much better in the second half of the season posting an OPS > .800 in both August and September. While Vargas and Arcia have been personal top 10 prospects of mine, Santana has escaped my radar the last two seasons, and all he did was rake. Two younger players also established themselves as regulars. Brian Dozier followed up his second half spike last season with a sustained effort. While his batting average was lower than most would have liked, his power stats and on base stats were exceptional for a second baseman, and he did it while playing very good defense. Trevor Plouffe also earned a starting job with improvements in both his bat and glove. Overall, he was a top 5-10 3B placing him solidly above average. This bodes well for the future of the club.
     
    The pitching side, however, was a disaster. Only Phil Hughes was an above average pitcher. Kyle Gibson did improve significantly posting numbers that would be equivalent to a 4ish starter. Given his age and minor league career, there's a good chance he builds off of this. The team saw debuts for Logan Darnell, Yohan Pino, and Trevor May as well, with May getting the bulk of the starts near the end of the season. May was terrible in August, though he improved to merely bad in September. However, here too there's reason for hope. He kept his K rate over 9 and dropped his walk rate significantly in September, walking only 8 in 5 games while striking out 29. He clearly has work to do, but like Gibson, there's good reason to think that he can take a big step forward in 2015 after his AAA breakout this year. Pino looked like a guy who can be stashed on the 40 man while he has options and brought up for the occasional spot start. Darnell clearly needed more work, but given his K rates both in the minors and in the majors, could amount to something, whether that's with the Twins remains to be seen, especially with what is coming up the pipeline.
     
    The peripherals for the team improved as well. In 2013, their Pythagorean record indicated they were significantly worse than their overall record, being bested only by the Astros. In 2014, their Pythagorean record said that the team was better than the record indicated. While that alone doesn't indicate improvement, it does say that lady luck may have played against the Twins a bit this season.
     
    That said, it's becoming more clear that ownership wants to see a return to winning. Season ticket sales have been dropping steadily for several years now, and with no all star game to boost them this offseason, the drop off is likely going to be severe. While at this point, there's little to stop the short term losses, a return to respectability is going to be a priority. The following is my plan.
     
    I'd start with coaching. I do not agree with the presumption that coaching has little effect in the win column, as a coaches job is to consistently put a team in position to win. Often, this is accomplished through managing egos in the clubhouse, which is very difficult to put a metric on, but the coaching situation involves motivating players, developing younger players, identifying flaws in a player's mechanics that other teams are exploiting, and managing games in such a way to minimize weaknesses and maximize strengths. Given the four consecutive 90 loss seasons, I thin, it's reasonable safe to assume that new voices need to be brought into the organization. As such, I'd suggest that it's time to start cleaning house here. I'd keep Molitor, Cuellar, and Brunanski, but beyond that, I'd retain no other major league coaches. The Twins will likely let Gardenhire stay on another year, but I think it's time for them to find a new voice to manage the clubhouse, and in particular one that is open to many of the new ideas being brought forth by statistics people. Of these three, I'd promote Molitor to the manager role, if he were inclined to take it. If he were not, I'd consider going after Joe Maddon or an external candidate, likely paying very close attention to the Cardinals or Rays organizations. I'd also bring up Doug Mientkewitz from the minor league staff and possibly Jake Mauer to fill position roles. I'd also look outside the organization for remaining vacancies.
     
    Player moves are a bit more difficult to do, as free agency does not appear to have what the Twins most likely need. The Twins are also in an odd situation where keeping many of the players that they currently have would be in their best interest, as many of these guys will likely play a role in the future. While the offense was good, the Twins were hurt by poor defensive play, due to playing players out of position and playing players who just could not defend. The goal in 2015 is to improve here. Let's start with the guys who aren't going anywhere:
     
    1B - Mauer - 23M/yr. As a catcher, Mauer might have some demand. As a 1B, he has very little. He rebounded quite nicely the second half and looked more like his old self. Bottom line though, he's not going anywhere. His defense at first should improve, though he was hardly the problem when it came to bad defense.
     
    2B - Dozier. In 2014, Dozier established himself as a member of the next wave. While his batting average was a bit low, he showed exceptional plate discipline as well as some much needed power for the organization. He is one of only a handful of Twins to have a 20/20 season, and for a while there was some thought that he could have 30/30 season. To add to it, he played defense at a nearly elite level. He's arbitration eligible in 2016. Given the situation, I think the most prudent course of action is to work out a contract extension with Dozier over the offseason. He has four years of team control, so the team could likely work out a 5 or 6 year deal. I would attempt to sign Dozier to a 5 year, 30M contract with a 6th year team option of 10M, with a 1M buyout. This would lock him up for his most productive years and keep him relatively easy to trade should another 2B prospect step up.
     
    RF - Arcia. Arcia really improved his offense in the second half of this season. His overall numbers, however, were not terribly impressive. What Arcia has shown is that he can hit. His problems deal with a swing too often mentality as well as defense. Given the improvement on the offense, I'd recommend that he spend a lot of time this offseason working on his defensive skills, noting that a step forward in 2015 would likely earn him a very nice contract that offseason.
     
    C - Suzuki/Pinto. Signed for another 2 years, Suzuki is not going anywhere. I would, however, plan on Pinto being his primary backup as well as occasional DH and maybe some OF duties to keep his bat in the lineup. I'd let Pinto know that he should be working on taking a few fly balls in the offseason to get used to some occasional time in the OF and that he will be catching 60-80 games next year should Suzuki remain healthy and productive.
     
    DH - Vargas. Vargas has a pretty good rookie year and at this point, he's earned the right to break with the 2015 team. While I would not be shocked if he were to struggle (and be sent down) in his sophomore campaign, for the time being, this job is his.
     
    3B - Plouffe. He's getting one more year. Sano is going to need time to develop and Ploufe was an above average 3B. I think he stays on the roster for another year and will likely be a trade candidate in the 2015 offseason if Sano develops as hoped.
     
    SS - Of the position players, this position is the most difficut to fill. Both Escobar and Santana put up above average numbers for the SS postion, though Santana put his up primarily in CF. While I like Santana as a long term solution, his numbers were inflated by a very high BABIP and a K rate that says he's going to come crashing back down to earth. On the flip side, he certainly earned a job to start. The problem as I see it is that his future is at SS, and from what I've read, he needs some work on his defense. I'd dangle Escobar this offseason to see if he could fetch something of value, as he too deserves to be a starting SS, however, this move comes with some risk, as there really isn't a fall back plan should Santana find he needs some work. I wouldn't trade Escobar unless he brought back something of value. If that were the case, the Twins could move Escobar to a super utility role and have Santana starting at SS or they could let Santana spend some time in AAA working on his defense.
     
    SP - Hughes, Gibson, and May. Each of these guys are staying for various reasons. Hughes had a record breaking season this year. He will be the opening day starter and will remain with the team. Gibson had a pretty good first full season notching a 4.47 ERA in approximately 180 innings. While those numbers are not outstanding by any means, they were above replacement level and should continue to improve with experience. As it is, these numbers are more of a number 4 type starter, and another year should see improvement on all of them. Baring injury, I'd expect Gibson to pitch 200 innings and bring ERA down a bit closer to 4 with a slight rise in the K rate. Trevor May will also return in my plans. While he didn't do as well as I'd have liked in his rookie campaign, he did improve significantly. His break out season in AAA indicates that he has little to prove there, and given his ability to miss bats, he will likely settle in next year and put up much better numbers.
     
    RP - Perkins, Fein, Theilbar, and Pelfrey. While I suspect Pelfrey is going to get every opportunity to start, I don't see may ways for this to happen. I could see arguing that this is a sunk cost, but this isn't how the Twins do things. I suspect Pelfrey will get a shot in the pen. Perkins will remain, and I'd keep Fein and Thielbar around. However, that leaves at a minimum 2 open slots, most likely 3. I'd non-tender Duensing and Swarzack or trade them for whatever I could get. I'd tap internal candidates for these roles giving an open tryout for Tonkin, Guererra, Pressley, Oliveros, Thompson, and Achter.
     
    Free agency:
     
    I don't see the Twins dipping into free agency that much. This is due to not matching up well with needs. I would make an effort to sign Colby Rasmus to a 1 year deal to play CF. I'd try to get an option out of that deal as well. Rasmus would provide a bridge to Hicks/Buxton.
     
    Trades:
     
    First big trade:
     
    I think trades make a lot more sense to the Twins this offseason as there are some teams that match up a bit better. The LA Dodgers are a big one with 3 expensive contracts in their OF, a cheap option in Puig who isn't going anywhere, and some nice prospects coming up through their system. I'd target Matt Kemp, who put together a decent season but isn't worth the 21 M they are paying him over the next 5 years. The Twins need a LF, there's no replacement in the near term. Kemp played CF, puts up better than average numbers with the bat and should be average or better in a corner defensively. Given his contract, the Dodgers won't be getting much for him unless they kick in a large portion of this salary. Given the Twin's youth movement, they should have cash for the forseable future as their payroll will largely drop. This won't hurt their future, though it could potentially hamstring some free agency moves if Kemp were to suddenly stop playing well. That said, he's 29, so he should be able to be productive through the remainder of his contract, just not to the value of his contract. I'd attempt to dangle Escobar or Nolasco plus maybe a C prospect to bring Kemp over to MN.
     
    The second trade I'd attempt to make is to add some higher ceiling pitching to the team. The problem as I see it is that finding this type of talent is pretty difficult to do. Two teams looking to be making some moves would be the Diamondbacks and the Reds. The problem, however, is that I don't see the Twins having what it would take to get a guy like Archie Bradley or Robert Stephenson. Both of these guys would be insanely expensive, and there's no chance either team would let someone like that go without acquiring something of equal value. I don't see the Twins dangling Buxton or Sano for one of these guys, so in reality, I don't see it happening. Perhaps AZ might be willing to deal as they showed a willingness to deal Trevor Bauer to Cleveland, but given their play this year, and their need for pitching at the major league level, trading one of their 3 top 100 prospects playing in the high minors makes very little sense. In the end, I don't see this happening unless the Twins are completely sold on Plouffe.
     
     
     
     
    Minor league moves.
    I'd send Rosario, Sano, Berrios, Burdi, and Buxton to AA with the hope that each could earn a midseason promotion. Meyer would start in AAA, and I'd expect him to be called up at some point in the season.
     
     
    Final Roster
    C - Suzuki/Pinto
    1B - Mauer
    2B - Dozier
    3B - Plouffe
    SS - Escobar (if no trade is made)
    LF - Kemp
    CF - Rasmus
    RF - Arcia
     
    BN - Pinto, Beresford (utility), Schaffer (4th OF), Nunez, Parmelee
     
    SP - Hughes, Gibson, May, Nolasco, Millone
     
    BP - Perkins, Fein, Theilbar, Pelfrey, Tonkin, Pressley, Oliveros, and Guerrera,
  7. diehardtwinsfan
    Last year, I decided to put together a top 20 list that became a top 21 list (b/c I forgot to include Kepler) towards the end of the season in large part b/c the product on the field was pretty bad and b/c I wanted something to talk about. It seems like it could be a fairly fun tradition to maintain, so I'm doing it again this year. I've expanded it out a bit more, and this is in large part due to the fact that the system has gotten stronger. The results from many of the 2012/13 drafts have been very encouraging, and many of the guys on this list have been dropped, not b/c their outlook has changed, but b/c the system has added more people that look to be very capable major leaguers. Last year's list did not graduate any of the members on it (Sulbaran was traded, but that was it), though I had to make a decision to keep Pinto as he's accumulated ML service time. My choice to keep him is largely b/c it's pretty clear he is not a finished product, though I suspect his name will be off of most pundit's lists at this point. I've also kept Vargas, Darnell, Tonkin, and Polanco, all of whom have seen ML service time, but have very few appearances. I didn't rate Santana last year, and he's spent quite a bit of time in the majors showing incredible promise. I'd note that he's significantly out performed his minor league numbers to date. This is pretty rare, and even more so for a rookie. I suspect he will come back down to earth, but his start has been very encouraging.
     
    The system as a whole was hurt by injuries to its top 2 prospects. This has likely delayed the transition time by a year as many people expected to see both Sano and Buxton this season. It may provide a bit of a blessing in disguise as the Twins will have one more season picking high than they otherwise would. On the flip side, many more guys have stepped up and are looking like very capable players. The farm system as a whole has improved.
    In terms of ranking, I tend to put more emphasis on results. I like tools, but I have a difficult time with guys like Max Kepler who have the tools, but haven't gotten the results. As such, I include guys like Logan Darnell, who isn't a toolsy guy, but has gotten some pretty good results to date. It's also why I have Polanco ranked above Gordon. It's not a slight to Gordon, but Polanco has done well at much higher levels at the same position than Gordon.
     
    _______________________
    1) Byron Buxton - CF (1) - Buxton remains at the top spot as a five tool player who surprised a lot of people. He raked in both Cedar Rapids and Fort Meyers last season and would have likely started in AA except for a injuries. He has managed to injure both wrists this year. He looked like he had found his old form in A+ only to sustain his second wrist injury. His results thus far in FTM are nothing special, but given the injuries and late start, he's essentially going through his spring training right now. He boasts 5 tool talent at a premium defensive position. His power hasn't quite developed yet, but 20 home run potential seems pretty reasonable. EST 2016 opening day.
     
    2) Miguel Sano - 3B (2) - Sano will miss all of 2014 to TJS. TJS doesn't affect hitters quite the same way it does pitchers, but the Twins are being cautious with their future slugger. Sano will likely begin 2014 in AA where he 'struggled' in his first taste in 2012. His struggles were contact related, posting only a .236 BA, but still managing a .915 OPS. Sano has 80 grade power according to a number of scouts and he will slot into the middle of the order for years to come. His biggest weakness is his contact. He's demonstrated the ability to make contact in the lower minors last season, but he still needs to cut down on the strike outs. EST 2016 opening day.
     
    3) Alex Meyer - RH SP (3) - Meyer is the first of many pitching prospects in the system, and he was acquired by the Twins in large part due to pitching being a weakness of the system at that time. Meyer's overall numbers in AAA look pretty good, sporting an ERA of 3.05. He's striking out more than 10 batters per 9 innings, and can throw in the upper 90s. AAA hitters have not hit well off of him, but his glaring weakness right now is walks, walking nearly a batter every 2 innings. Meyer is still refining his third pitch, but he boasts 2 plus pitches to go with it. He will likely see some time in the bull pen this September and possibly sooner, but he still needs to work on control, as he will struggle in the majors if he continues walking this many batters. EST 2014 Sept callup, SP sometime in 2015.
     
    4) Kohl Stewart - RH SP (5) - Stewart's 1st professional season can only be described as successful. As one of the youngest players in the MWL, Stewart is among the leaders in a number of categories. His biggest knock so far has been a lack of strike outs, though this appears to be due more to his development plan than his talent. He's largely shelved one of his better pitches and has been focusing on developing his fastball. He boasts potential of having 4 plus pitches, and he throws in the mid 90s. He's currently been sidelined due to should soreness, but this appears to be minor. His ceiling is a top of the rotation arm. EST 2017.
     
    5) JO Berrios - RH SP (8) - Berrios appears to have taken a huge step forward this season in his second full season of professional baseball. He destroyed the FSL posting K rate over 10/9 innings and walking just over 2 hitters per 9 innings. He also boasts a mid 90s fastball and advanced control for players his age. He's one of the youngest players in AA presently, though he has struggled in his first taste of the league. He's also a bit shorter than the average pitcher, which some analysts (namely Keith Law) think will make it difficult for him to succeed. That said, his ceiling is like the other pitchers on this list. He can be a top of the rotation guy if things break right. He will finish out this season in AA and probably start there next year as well. EST late 2015.
     
    6) Trevor May - RH SP (7) - When May was drafted, he was considered by many to have a top of the rotation ceiling. His early career in Philly showed impressive strikeout ability, but he struggled with control. After being traded to Minnesota, he showed an improvement in his walk rate to the tune of approximately .7BB/9 IP. However, his peripherals did not improve much. AAA in 2014 has been a different story. He's recorded a similar drop in his walk rate, maintaining a much more respectable rate of around 3.3/9 IP and is still striking out batters at a rate of 1/inning. He has shaved 2 full hits per 9 IP as well, giving him a very respectable 1.12 WHIP. Given the step forward, May is looking more like a starter than the reliever that many had him pegged for, and he'd have likely been in MN had it not been for a calf injury. I think his ceiling is still on the top end of the rotation being anywhere from a 1-3 starter. ETA any time.
     
    7) Jorge Polanco - SS/2B (11) - When Polanco was signed, his defense was considered to be the prize and his bat was questionable. As a pro, his bat has shown quite a bit of promise, and it's his glove that needs work. Forgetting the 6 AB sample in MN, he's amassed a career minor league OPS of .773 with each of the last 3 seasons being above that mark. He's struggling a bit in AA right now, and there's question whether he's going to be able to stick at SS, but he's showing promise as a 2B. With Dozier and Santana occupying those positions at the ML level, the Twins have time to be patient with him, but he is on the 40 man and ahs the luxury of a 4th option as well. ETA mid 2016.
     
    8) Nick Gordon - SS (unrnk) Gordon was the number 5 overall pick. I dropped him down a bit b/c as of yet he hasn't done much. He has all the tools as well as major league bloodlines, so his future is bright. Hopefully he can do a 2013 Buxton and rocket up this list next season. That's probably asking too much, but one can hope. He's likely to start 2015 in Cedar Rapids. ETA fall of 2018.
     
    9) Josmil Pinto - C (6) - I elected to keep Pinto on this list because it's pretty clear that the Twins management thinks he has work to do. His bat is probably ML ready now, but he clearly needs to work on his defense behind the dish. I still think he can be an above average catcher if he can improve his defense. He'll likely be up again in September and I suspect he's going to be starting 2015 as the 2nd C/part time DH.
     
    10) Kennys Vargas - 1B/DH (10) - Vargas is a beast of a human whose primary position is going to be DH. He sports a career minor league OPS of .854. He's not going to bring much defensively to the table and he's just been called up to the majors. His walk rate is pretty decent and he's dropped his K rate by a decent margin this year as well. At 23, he looks to be a middle of the order bat, though I suspect he's going to take some lumps in MLB before he's ready. He's here now, so no new ETA, but I'm guessing he returns to AAA next year at some point. He's in MN to stay late 2015.
    _______________________________________
    I've read from a few sources that the 11-20 of the Twins is better than some team's top 10 picks. As you will see below, here's why. This list reminds me of the Twins top 10 lists from a few years back: Loaded with talent who have done very well in the lower minors, but pretty weak near the top. That's pretty good considering that everyone in the top 10 except for Buxton and Stewart has seen time in AA (and I expect Buxton to get promoted in the near future).
     
    11) Nick Burdi - RP (unrnk). I don't normally rank relief pitchers this high, but Burdi looks like a good chance of being a special one. Forgetting his professional debut, he's striking out nearly 2 batters an inning in Cedar Rapids. I'm guessing he gets promoted to the FSL yet this season and should be on the fast track to the big leagues. He brings upper 90s heat and can hit triple digits on the gun from time to time. ETA, late 2015.
     
    12) Eddie Rosario - 2B/CF (4) Rosario may be the biggest disappointment of the 2014 season. He served a 50 game suspension to start the year and has not performed well in his return. He's shown flashes of being that guy that was ranked 4th on my list last year. Keep in mind he's only 22, he's in AA, and he has a career minor league OPS of .839, even with his rather forgettable season thus far. He's part of what appears to be a log jam of players at his positions in the organization right now, so he may be of more value to the team in a trade. His bat doesn't profile as a corner OF, so a move to the corner doesn't make a ton of sense. Other teams will value him more at CF or 2B, and as such, I suspect he may end up being traded if he puts things together given his spots will likely be held by Buxton, Hicks, Dozier, and Polanco. ETA late Fall 2016.
     
    To be honest, I think the next 3 guys are all very interchangeable. All have the potential to be top of the rotation arms. They are all pitching in Cedar Rapids. They are all young for their league. When the 2014 MWL season began, Kohl Stewart was one of the youngest in the league. Since then, that title has been taken by Lewis Thorpe, who is more than a year younger than Stewart. Stephen Gonsalves is also younger than Stewart and is now pitching there.
     
    One thing to keep in mind, however, about pitching prospects is that they are very hard to predict. A few years back, people in prospecting circles were drooling over the idea of landing Dellin Betances and/or Manny Banuelos from the Yankees in a potential trade. They were even nicknamed the Killer Bs. Both of these kids looked like they could be top of the rotation type arms. Fast forward to the present. Betances was forced to reinvent himself as a reliever. He was promoted in 2013 to the Yankees and has been pretty good as a reliever, but his days as a starter ended in 2013. Banuelos has seen a drop in his stats at each promotion and then missed all of 2013 to TJS. He made it up to AAA, but did not post anything close to the numbers that our current Rochester pitching staff is doing. He's currently rehabbing in AA. He's still a decent pitching prospect, but much of the shine has worn off. While the next 3 are certainly worth being excited over, the failure rate of young pitching prospects is pretty high. Most of us are drooling over the idea of a starting rotation in 3/4 years that could have some combination of Meyer, May, Berrios, Stewart, Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Hu. If all of them pan out, the Twins will likely be trading some of these guys for huge bounties to keep their system stocked and remain competitive. However, history says that some (or even most) of these guys will fail.
     
    13) Lewis Thorpe - LH SP (13) - Thorpe absolutely destroyed the GCL as a 17 year old last year and started getting a lot of national love from prospecters. He turned 18 this year, and some experts said that Thorpe would likely have been a 1st rounder in this years draft had he been a US citizen. The Twins have also believed in him allowing him to skip the Appy league altogether. He predictably struggled in his MWL debut, but is also the youngest player in the league. His first four starts were pretty bad. He should improvement on his next four, and his last 3 have been pretty decent. His innings are a bit low as he's limited to about 75 pitches a game, but he's now got a very respectable K rate of 9.4/9 IP. His walk rate is still too high for the league. If he keeps trending in the right direction he may start in Fort Meyers, but he's likely to repeat at Cedar Rapids. He boasts mid-90s speed, and that could still improve given his age. He has top of the rotation potential if he continues to develop. ETA 2018.
     
    14) Stephen Gonsalves - LH SP (14) - Gonsalves entered his senior year of high school with a reasonable hope that he could be drafted in the 1st round. However, a poor senior year and a suspension from the team eliminated him from quite a few team's draft boards as many expected him to go to college. The Twins got him in the 4th round of the 2013 draft, and right now this is looking like a steal. Gonsalves was recently promoted to the MWL and is currently getting good results. There's some question about his breaking pitches and how they develop, but if things break right, he represents another top of the rotation type arm. Like Thorpe, he can pitch in the low to mid 90s and could still add some speed to his pitches. ETA 2018.
     
    15) Chih-Wei Hu - RH SP (unrnk) - I ingored Hu last season simply because of his age. He dominated the GCL, but unlike Thorpe/Gonsalves, he was older. He was given 3 starts in the Appy and sent to the MWL where he continues to dominate his opponents. At 20, he's not old for the MWL, and he boasts a mid 90s fastball. At this point, it's worth taking notice. He too could potentially be a top of the rotation arm if things continue to break positively. ETA 2018.
     
    16) Sean Gilmartin LH SP (unrnk) - Gilmartin was at one point one of the top prospects in the Brave's system making AAA at age 22. He fell out of favor with the Braves and was traded to the Twins for Doumit this last offseason. The Twins assigned him to AA, where he seemed to have figured something out. He posted a 3.3 ERA with a K rate of over 9/9IP. He was promoted to Rochester where he's pitched well (though not as well), but still better than his previous 2 AAA stints. He's only 24. His ceiling is more of a mid-rotation guy, but he's been getting results at the higher levels. ETA 2016.
     
    17) Mitch Garver C (unrnk) - After the 2013 draft, Garver was listed as a potential sleeper. For what was supposedly a weak draft, it has been productive for the Twins as he's the 3rd of 4 members on this list. His defense is good enough to stick at C, and thus far, the college draftee has destroyed the MWL to the tune of a > .860 OPS. His plate discipline is verry good as well as he has a K/BB ratio of around 1.2. He could profile as a decent defender with an above average bat. ETA 2017.
     
    18) Travis Harrison 3B/LF (unrnk) - Harrison was drafted out of HS and started his career at age 19 in the Appy league. He was considered toolsy but raw and his consistenly performed better than league average (while being young for the league) but posted stats that tend to fly under the radar. He has dropped his K rate in the FSL this year while keeping his BB rate the same. His average has gone up as has his ability to hit doubles, though his HRs have dropped. This may have more to do with the spacious parks in the FSL, and he's my pick to have a break out season next year in AA. ETA late 2016.
     
    19) Adam Brett Walker RF (9) - Walker is the definition of a high risk/high reward prospect. Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft, he absolutely destroyed the MWL in his first full year. Contact issues have been a concern, and they've been on display in 2014. His strikeouts have increased and his average has dropped. On the plus side, his walk rate has increased this season over last season, and he needs to get his K rate under control. He could be a star, but he could also flame out and never get beyond AA. He's also a bit faster than a typical RF type guy, so he should be able to provide decent defense in the corner if he makes it. I suspect he's going to repeat A+. ETA late 2017
     
    20) Michael Tonkin RH RP (15) - Tonkin drops down a bit this year, though not due to his own performance. The 24 year old is in his second season at AAA. His peripheral numbers remain the same, though his ERA has dropped significantly. He wasn't terribly good in Minnesota this year, but he should be back to stay next season. He profiles as a back of the pen type reliever. ETA September.
     
     
    21) Logan Darnell LH SP (18) - Darnell got off to a great start at the beginning of the season posting solid gains across all of his peripheral stats. He's cooled off a bit, and has also earned a 3 game trial in Minnesota this year. His ceiling remains a mid-rotation type guy with a floor of a 4/5 guy. He has a narrow window of opportunity to earn a spot in MN, and I suspect his value will come more from a trade once his options are gone. His walk rate is probably his biggest issue. ETA, September.
     
     
    22) Jake Reed RH RP (unrnk) - This 2014 5th round pick is quickly turning into a surprise. He's a college junior and elected to sign instead of rolling the dice for a senior season. Thus far, he's been spectacular. He pitched only 4 games in the Appy, totalling 6 innings, striking out 8 and giving up only 1 hit. He was since promoted to Cedar Rapids, where his dominance has continued. His K/9 is over 11. His BB/9 is under 2, he's given up 1 earned run in 13 innings and has only given up 6 hits. Like Nick Burdi, he looks like he could be a fast riser though the system. Reed's fastball can hit mid-90s and by reports has a pretty decent slider as well. His ceiling is a back of the bullpen arm, and I suspect he's going to be fast tracked. ETA late 2016.
     
    23) Tyler Duffey RH SP (unrnk) - When Duffey was first brought up in the TwinsDaily adopt a prospect forums, the general consensus was something along the lines of "Good luck". For Duffey though, it seems that he's gotten some help from more than just lady luck. While his ceiling is more of a back end rotation guy, he's rapidly moved up the system posting a 20-9 record with a 3.48 ERA in just over 2 seasons of work. His WHIP is a respectable 1.13 in AA right now and he's striking out just under 7 batters/9IP. Given the pitching depth, his role in the Twins will likely be more of a AAA guy/spot starter until his options are used up, and he'll probably find himself traded at some point. ETA 2015.
     
     
    24) Amaurys Minier 3B (unrnk) - Minier was one of the big signings in 2012 and was given his first shot at rookie ball in 2013. He wasn't terribly good last year, but his second go around in the GCL at age 18 has been much better. The 3B has an OPS over .820 and is showing good plate discipline. He's not putting up the video game stats that some of the Twins better prospects have done in rookie ball, but at 18, he'd doing well enough to be on the radar. ETA 2020.
     
    25) Max Kepler OF/1B (17) - People didn't agree with my ranking of Kepler last season, and I'm guessing that will continue. My preference is to find a good combination of results and tools. While Kepler has the tools, the results have been rather pedestrian other than a really good year in the Appy in 2012. This is Kepler's 5th season in the organization and his OPS in the FSL is under .700. It was noted when he signed that he would take some time to develop, but 5 years later, there's good reason to question to wonder how much that will actually happen. In his favor, he's ony 21 years old, and he is playing in a pitchers league. He was added to the 40 man this offseason and due to his slow progression gets an extra option for the team to work with. This will keep him in the system a bit longer, but he's in desparate need of a breakout season. ETA 2018.
     
    Honorable mention: Jason Kanzler, Max Murphy, AJ Achter, Dallas Gallant, Zach Jones(21), JT Chargois, Aaron Slegers, and Tyler Jones.
     
    Overall, the Twins system is easily a top 3 system, and from what I've read, there's a pretty big gap between what the Twins have and every other team except the Cubs. It's a very strong system top to bottom, but it's definitely stronger up the middle, which also happens to be the currency of baseball. Of the 25 guys mentioned here, 10 of them are starting pitchers. 7 of these starters could potentially be that ace that Twins fans have coveted since Santana left. In reality, there's no such thing as a pitching prospect, so the likeliness of many of those guys disappointing is rather high. That said, with 7 guys who could reach that potential, the odds of striking it rich is good. It's clear that the Twins have been targeting strengthening their pitching over the last few seasons as many of these pitchers have been added since Ryan took over. In addition, there are 3 more relief pitchers who look like they can reach the majors and provide excellent back of the pen help in the bottom half of this list. Several of the honorable mentions could also easily fit into this role but fell off the list due to age (Gallant, Tyler Jones) or injury (Chargois, Zach Jones). The bottom line is that the system looks like it could keep the MLB team in most of the pitching leader categories as these guys develop.
     
    The same is true with middle infielders and center fielders. It's clear that the organization has been targeting help in these areas. Of the remaining 12 players, 5 of them (4 of which are in the top 10) fit into this category as well as 2 honorable mentions that at this point there's too little data to quantify. With Dozier locking down 2nd, and Santana looking like he may be an above average major league SS at this point, several of these guys will likely end up being traded if they continue to progress. Aaron Hicks, though not included in this list due to service time, also complicates things in a positive way, as I firmly believe that there's still hope for him to realize his potential, even with the setbacks. Teams tend to add more wins with guys who excel in these positions, as MLB average/replacement level for these positions is pretty low.
     
    The system's weakness appears to be more along the lines. Of the 7 remaining players in the top 25, 2 of them are catchers (though both look like they could be very good catchers). Vargas is the sole 1B. Walker is a RF. The remaining prospects are 3B/OF types. Sano certainly looks like a force at 3B for some time, so this isn't necessarily an area that needs to be addressed quickly, but the team could definitely use some help with high ceiling corner bats. The good news is that those tend to be the easiest to aquire in free agency or even via trade. As well, several of the CF/MI prospects could easily transition in that direction should their bat play up but their position is blocked. Plenty of teams would also trade a good hitting LF/RF guy for some solid pitching, as pitching is always in high demand. I suspect this offseason, Ryan may attempt to trade off some of the AAA pitching depth for a blocked corner OF in another system.
     
    Overall, however, it's a very strong system. With superstar hitting prospects in Sano and Buxton coupled with some very good hitters in Dozier and Mauer, the team should be able to score some runs. The development of guys like Santana, Vargas, Pinto, and Arcia is likely going to be the determining factor of how the offense fits in the next wave. If these guys progress well (and there's good reason to think they can), the MLB team in the later part of this decade will be stacked top to bottom with above average players. A return to meaningful fall baseball is very likely.
  8. diehardtwinsfan
    A lot of ink has been spilled on the abomination of a season that encompassed the Twins 2013 year, and there are certainly differences of opinions as to what should happen next. Looking at the season in the rear view mirror, there were some good things to come from it. The most notable was the emergence of Brian Dozier at 2nd. Behind that was a pen that far exceeded expectations, especially given how bad the starting rotation was.
     
    The upcoming season is going to be an interesting one for the Twins. It's theme will largely be a transitional one. Knocking on the door will be Byron Buxton (assuming his impressive pro start continues into AA), Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Josmil Pinto, Michael Tonkin, Logan Darnell, and Eddie Rosario. While a number of these guys won't be ready to start the year, they could all very well be making a case by mid-May, which makes a large scale overhaul of the roster somewhat difficult (and quite possibly not wise). In spite of this, one can be assured that a number of these guys will struggle, much like Arcia, Hicks, and Gibson did this season. Given that, expectations of competing for a division title should probably be put to rest for the time being, 2014 is going to mark the transition of a new core. The final record should be improved, and it's quite possible that team flirts with the .500 mark for the first time in a few years.
     
    That said, there's still a lot of unanswered questions. Several players are nearing their last chances. Both Plouffe and Parmelee are going to have to show that their bats are worth something other than continual teasing. Newly acquired Alex Presley is in a similar position, as his recent minor league results have been impressive, but that has not translated into major league success. Like Parmelee and Plouffe, Presley will have 2014 to prove his worth, though he will likely find himself a role as a 4th OF should he fail in what is likely the last chance he's going to be given to earn a starting role on a major league team. If he does well, he may find himself traded again if Hicks and Buxton are both making a case that they are ready. Given his defensive value, Parmelee might find himself in the "Power bat off the bench" role should he fail in 2014.
     
    Finally, we get to the garbage. The starting rotation was awful (and that's being nice), and while help looks to be on the way, there's one current member that's sure to be there opening day, and despite the vomit inducing thought, he's likely the opening day starter. Kyle Gibson will also be assured of a spot, even with his struggles. His first season back from Tommy John surgery should be considered mostly successful, even without the major league results. He will have a spot, and given his history, he should be reasonably expected to improve. Beyond that, there's little in the way of immediate help to the worst rotation in the league. With 3 spots open, Vance Worley should also, in my opinion, get another chance. His 2 years in Philly were decent, and despite an abomination of a season in 2013, I think a third spot should be reserved for him. This too will likely be his last chance. This leaves two open spots which will need to be addressed.
     
    That said, we now need to come up with a plan. The first stop is coaching. The coaching situation is clearly stale, and the major league ranks in particular seem to be operating a bit too old school. To complicate that, a new wave of rookie prospects is nearing, and finding someone who is good with rookies is paramount. Ron Gardenhire is not that guy. Outside the organization, I'd likely target someone like Tampa Bay's Martinez or Cleveland's pitching coach. Inside the organization, Molitor or Gwynn should be options as well. Outside of the manager, Bobby Cuellar and Tom Brunansky are likely the only coaches I'd keep on the major league staff, and Bruno's leash is relatively short.
     
    One big caveat prior to making any moves is the PTBNL in the Morneau trade. The assumption for this post is that it will be Duke Welker as rumored, though there are several intriguing options that could change the organization's overall direction, such as Stolmy Pimentel, who is out of options and may have a difficult time fitting into Pittsburg's plans.
     
    Moving on to the pen, it was pretty strong, and with Tonkin knocking on the door along with good performances from Perkins, Theilbar, Burton, Swarzak, Fein, and Duensing, there isn't a ton of room. Given that this is clearly the position of strength, trading from this makes the most sense. It will be further complicated if the 2nd player in the Morneau trade is Duke Welker. Perkins value is the highest so I'd dangle him again this offseason to see if there are any takers, but would only trade him for some very nice help. Ideally, an Allen Webster and Matt Barnes combo from the Red Sox or something like it would likely get my attention. Webster is a top 100 prospect who did very well in AA and Barnes is more of a prospect in the Trevor May role. If a trade like that couldn't be made, I'd still likely deal Burton and/or Fein for some lower level pitching help. Given that several of the AAAA type starters could turn into decent relievers, I'd consider a bullpen trade even if Perkins got traded.
     
    The rotation will also need to be addressed. Given the youth trend and the large amounts of money available that could be spent, I think the Twins should go hard after Masahiro Tanka who will be posted this offseason. It will likely be a 40-60M posting to get the job done, plus a 5 or 6 year contract of a similar value. Given that he's 24, I think this type of move makes the most sense for a transitional team, and should he struggle initially, there will be room for patience. I would also target a stronger veteran presence. Phil Hughes would top my list, and he will likely be a free agent without a qualifying offer (I would not offer him a contract if the Yankees gave him an offer). He would be my second major signing, and I'd target a 3 or 4 year deal for him.
     
    Despite their poor showing, the position players won't change much in 2014. Locked in are Mauer (as a catcher), Willingham, Presley, Arcia, Doumit, Florimon, and Dozier. Plouffe and Parmelee will also get their last chances, and Colabello will also get another look. Hicks will start the season in AAA, and he will have to earn his next trip back to the major leagues, though I do think he eventually replaces Presley. I would go hard after the Cuban defector Abreau, though I don't think I would get him for the price I'm willing to offer, but since this is my offseason plan, I'm going to say they can get it done for 5/60. Doumit, while locked in, will see much less PT in this scenario, as he's relegated to 2nd catcher and occasional DH/OF play. Along with Willingham, both will be dangled at the trade deadline for anything they can bring back. Given his career, Doumit should be in line for a decent bounce back season, as will Willingham. Both could net something decent in the lower minors. Also of note, if Dozier's success continues, he will likely find himself moving back to SS assuming Rosario continues to impress. While he did well, there's not room for Pinto until Doumit is gone. He's the heir to the 2nd catcher role and should allow Mauer to get more reps at DH/1B/RF or wherever they choose to play him. Pinto could find himself on the ML roster if Ryan can find a buyer for Doumit this offseason, but I highly doubt he gets enough for him.
     
    That leaves the following team:
     
    C - Mauer
    1B - Abreau
    2B - Dozier
    SS - Florimon (until Rosario is ready, at which point Dozier moves back to SS)
    3B - Plouffe (until Sano is ready)
    LF - Willingham (to be replaced by Buxton or Hicks at the trade deadline)
    CF - Presley (potentially also to be replaced by Buxton or Hicks if both have done well and he is not.)
    RF - Arcia
    DH - Parmelee (who will also get reps in at 1B and OF, but will find himself battling with Colabello or Plouffe if he struggles)
     
    SP - Tanka, Hughes, Gibson, Correia (this is another potential flip at the deadline), and Worley
    RP - Swarzak, Theilbar, Duensing, Welker, Burton, and Tonkin
    CL - Fein (in this scenario, I'd like dangle Fein at the deadline and replace him with Tonkin).
     
    BN - Colabello, Masteroni, Escobar, Doumit.
     
    Waiting in the wings: Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Meyer, May, Darnell, Pressley and Pinto. Also waiting would hopefully be whomever was acquired for Perkins (Webster/Barnes if we are lucky).
     
    Unlike 2013, if the pitching fails, there are some higher upside arms in AAA that could come in and replace them. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if those guys struggle too, that's to be expected. In this scenario, there would also be a bit of a log jam on the mound going forward. This should leave the Twins with some good trading chips should they suddenly find themselves with more good starting pitching than what they have spots for.
     
    While I don't see a team that will compete for the central, the rotation improvements along with modest bounce back years from Doumit and Willingham should lead to a team that can flirt with the .500 mark for most of the season.
  9. diehardtwinsfan
    In light of John's recent suggestion, I went ahead and compiled the results of the 2013 free agent pitching market. I excluded pitchers that ended up as relievers, and I excluded pitchers such as baseballs version of Gandolf the Gray (Jamie Moyer) who did not sign.
     
    The results were surprisingly better than I thought they'd be, but I'm not so certain that we at Twins Daily would have gotten them right. I'm too lazy to look up all of the suggestions from last winter, but the names that I remember being tossed around were either unrealistic (Grienke, Sanchez, etc) or have horribly performed (Jackson, Haren, Marcum). Some of the multi-year deals obviously need to be vetted in terms of the length of their deal, and I suspect guys like Lohse and Greinke will not look so good at the end of their contracts.
     
    One interesting observation is that the cubs took 3 gambles in the FA pitching market. One (Scott Feldman) worked out very well for them. One (Scott Baker) flushed 5.5M down the toilet. One (Carlos Villanueva) may also net them a prospect. Despite their record, the cubs are a large market team, so they essentially used 15M this offseason to buy some prospects in what is a lost year for them. Given that their fan base will show up no matter how poor a product they put on the field, this isn't a bad strategy at all for the lovable losers.
     
    The Good:
     
    Zack Greinke: 8-2 3.36 ERA in 91 innings. Lost time due to an injury sustained in a fight.
    Jake Peavy: 7-4 4.19 ERA in 73 innings. Also spent time on the DL. Peripherals better than Greinke so far.
    Anibal Sanchez: 7-7 2.85 ERA in 98 innings. Though the record hasn’t indicated it, he has pitched like an ace striking out more than 10 per 9 innings and walking less than 3.
    Hiroki Kuroda: 9-6 with a 2.65 ERA in 125 innings. Has pitched quite well for the 15M contract the Yankees gave him, though his K rate is significantly lower than the others, he may regress.
    Kyle Lohse: 6-7 with a 3.49 ERA for the Brewers. Peripherals don’t look too good, but he’s gotten the results thus far and justified his 3/33M contract.
    Ervin Santana: 6-6 with a 3.18 ERA for the Royals in 130 innings. Has to date justified his 1/13 contract and will likely be able to parlay that into a multiyear deal this offseason.
    Francisco Liriano: 9-4 with a 2.44 ERA in 81 innings for the Pirates. He signed a 1M deal with a second year option that will likely be picked up. He has been by far the best value deal of the class as he’s pitched like an ace. He turned down an offer from the Twins, and I’d say there’s a good chance he would not have pitched that well had he returned.
    Scott Feldman: 8-6 with a 3.86 ERA. Cubs were able to flip him and his 1/6 contract for prospects.
    Bartolo Colon: 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA for the A’s. Great value for 3M.
     
    The mediocre:
     
    Ryan Dempster: 5-8 with a 4.24 ERA in 110 innings for the Redsox. He’s been just better than league average, and not quite justifying the 2 year 26.5M contract.
    Jeremy Guthrie: 9-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 126 innings for the Royals. I hate to see how this will turn out in years 2 and 3 of his 25M contract.
    Joe Saunders: 9-8 with a 4.28 ERA in 120 innings. Great value from the 6.5M contract he got this offseason.
    Carlos Villanueva: 2-6 with a 4.16 ERA in 84 innings for the Cubs. Signed a 2/10M contract and has earned his keep.
    Erik Bedard: 3-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 98 innings for the Astros. Could possibly be flipped for a prospect.
    Kevin Correia: I don’t think I need to summarize this one. He’s earned his contract, though not much more.
    Jason Marquis: 9-5 with a 4.05 ERA. Probably the best of the mediocre group and cheap at 3M. I somehow doubt he was going back to MN.
    Roberto Hernandez: The player formerly known as Carmona is 5-10 with a 4.9 ERA for the Rays. Only cost 3.25M.
     
    The Bad:
     
    Edwin Jackson: 6-10 with a 5.11 ERA in 100 innings. He has not lived up to his potential.
    Brandon McCarthy: 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA in only 66 innings. He was cheap at 2/16.5, but has not pitched nearly enough, or well enough to justify the contract.
    Dan Haren: 4-10 with a 5.61 ERA for the Nationals. Has not justified his 1/13 contract.
    Shaun Marcum: 1-10 with a 5.29 ERA for the Mets. At least only cost them 4M.
    Joe Blanton: 2-12 with a 5.53 ERA for the Angels. Not worth the 2/15 contract he signed.
    Roy Oswalt: 0-4 with a 7.64 ERA in only 17 innings for the Rockies. He has pitched well in AA.
    Freddy Garcia: 3-5 with a 5.77 ERA for Baltimore. At least he was cheap.
    Jeff Francis: 2-5 with a 6.58 ERA for the Rockies. Cost 1.5M.
    Chien-Ming Wang: 1-1 with a 7.13 ERA for the Jays in only 24 innings. Singed for .5M.
    Jonathan Sanchez: 0-3 with an 11.85 ERA for the Pirates.
     
    The ugly:
     
    Colby Lewis: Has been paid 2M to not pitch.
    Chris Young: He did not sign a major league deal, so this really didn’t not hurt his team. He has not pitched well in AAA thus far.
    Scott Baker: I want get paid 5.5M to never set foot on a mound.
    Daisuke Matsuzaka: Signed a minor league deal and has yet to pitch in the majors.
    Carlos Zambrano: Signed a minor league deal and has yet to pitch in the majors. Has pitched well in the minors.
    Aaron Cook: Signed a minor league deal and is getting shelled in the PCL.
    Kip Wells: Signed a minor league deal and is getting shelled in the PCL.
     
    Breakdown:
    Good: 9 players
    Mediocre: 8 players
    Bad: 10 players
    Ugly: 7 players
     
    Since Ryan was clearly looking for shorter term deals, we can look back with hindsight to see who was the best signing.
     
    The best contracts overall were for Liriano (who turned down an offer to return), Feldman, and Colon. Both signed short term contracts and have vastly outperformed them. We all know the enigma that is Liriano, so it doesn't bear repeating. There's good question as to whether or not he would have pitched this well in Minnesota.
     
    Many of the mediocre contracts would have played out similarly to Kevin Correia, who the Twins signed. None of these guys would be difference makers overall, but most of them would be upgrades to our current rotation.
     
    If money wasn't an option, and this was an exercise in throwing darts, approximately 50% of the players that signed would have performed well enough to earn their contract. Given that a number of the good players, such as Sanchez, Grienke, Liriano, and Lohse weren't likely to come here due to either a large contract or a former history, Ryan's odds of succeeding were less than that. The Twins would likely be in different shape had they signed Feldman, Colon, and Kuroda this offseason, but these were also not names that many were arguing for, and at 15M, Kuroda would have sucked up the entire budget. As a result, I'm not sure the posters at Twins Daily would have assembled a much better rotation than what Ryan did, and it most certainly would have cost more.
  10. diehardtwinsfan
    It's no secret as to where the Twins struggled last season. Starting pitching was by far the worst, but the Twins were left lacking up the middle as well as in the pen. The good news is that from a hitting standpoint, the Twins look fairly set going forward. Rochester's OF should consist of 3 decent prospects in Arcia, Hicks, and Benson (though Benson's stock has fallen a bit), and one of them should be ready if/when someone goes down or is traded. The higher minors are bereft of pitching talent and middle infield talent, though prospect Brian Dozier should get a chance to establish himself in Rochester next year. I for one am not as down on him as others, and a year in AAA will likely be beneficial to him. Fortunately for the Twins, there are options. In my plan, the Twins will make two trades this offseason. The first of which will be to deal Anthony Slama to the Angels for Dan Haren and 3M. While I personally think Slama deserves a shot, it seems clear that he isn't going to get one in Minnesota. The Angles took a similar type deal in letting go Santana, and they will take another one to for Haren as they will esentially get an RP arm for the cost of Haren's buyout, which they were going to pay anyways. The second will be to deal Denard Span and a PTBNL to the Reds for minor league pitcher Tony Cingrani.
     
    They will not sit quitely in the FA market either. The Twins go ahead and sign Scott Baker to a 2 year deal with an option. He will receive 2M in 2013 and 6M in 2014 with a 10M option in 2015 or a 1M buyout. They also choose to bring on Erik Bedard on a 1 year 2M deal. Bedard was very good for Pittsburg before falling apart late summer. That was certainly in part due to being tired as he hasn't had huge workloads for several years now. His purpose is to hopefully last the year, but if not, he buys time for Gibson/Hendricks. Gibson will be shut down early in the spring so that he can finish the year with 130 innings. The Twins will also go heavily after Marcum, and they will get him after adding a 2nd year and an option to his contract. Marcum is signed for 2/16 with a 3rd year option.
     
    They will opt for 1 year fixes in the middle infield. Both Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew will be signed to 1 year deals to man the middle. This should provide better defense overall and a reasonable potential to help at the plate. Dozier will start in AAA where he belongs, and the Twins will be able to decide if he will man one of those spots in 2014. Terry Ryan said that the pen was his second priority, and as such he makes a few moves. Being out of options, Delios Gurerra will be given every opportunity to man a spot, and he will receive it whether or not it is deserved. But the Twins will also seek reinforcements who are capable of striking out batters. Jason Grilli will come over on a 2 yr/4M deal from Pittsburg. While he is 35, he is still quite capable of striking out batters. Staying with age, they will also sign Joel Peralta to a 1yr/3M deal. These pitchers will add some Ks to the back of the pen for reasonable prices.
     
    Their bench will be strengthened by signing Jeff Keppinger to a 2yr/7M deal. Keppinger will rotate at the corners and occasional DH and essentially be their 10th starter/super utility guy.
     
    Lineup:
    C-Mauer - 23M
    1B-Morneau - 14M
    2B-Kelly Johnson - 2M
    SS-Stephen Drew - 2M
    3B - Plouffe - .5M
    RF - Willingham - 7M
    CF - Revere .5M
    LF - Parmalee .5M
    DH - Doumit 3.5M
     
    Total: 53M
     
    Pitching:
    SP-Diamond - .5M
    SP-Dan Haren - 12M (Angels cover 3M of his contract)
    SP- Marcum - 8M
    SP-Baker - 2M
    SP-Bedard - 3M
     
    RP-Swarzak - .5M
    RP-D. Guererra - .5M
    RP-Jason Grilli - 2M
    RP-Joel Peralta - 3M
    RP-Duensing - 1M
    RP-Burton - 1M
    CL-Perkins - 2.5M
     
    Total: 40.5
     
    Bench
    U/MIF- Florimon - .5M
    U/CIF- Jeff Keppinger - 3.5M
    OF- Mastroianni - .5M
    C- Chris Herrman - .5M
     
    Total: 5M
    Grand total: 98.5M
     
    The end result is a swing for the fences type team. If everything breaks right, the Twins will find themselves in the thick of a penant race in 2013. Given that they are adding quite a few question marks, the likelihood of that is not as good as we'd like, but they have nice trade options to work with come the deadline should things not work out. Morneau will very likely be flipped for pitching help. The same can be said for Willingham, Johnson, Drew, or Peralta. With Arcia and Hicks in Rochester, one of these guys will likely be called up to replace Revere should he struggle. If Morneau or Willingham is traded, then one will be called up to move into the OF. Gibson and Hendricks will start in Rochester, but both will likely see time when the inevitable pitching injury strikes. This Twins team has much more depth as their minor league system should be able to provide a reasonable replacement for most roles.
  11. diehardtwinsfan
    It has been an ugly year in Minnesota so far, as this team is in the race for the number one overall pick next season, and unfortunately they seem to be doing everything possible to bungle it up. The DFA of Arcia has really kind of irked me as he's the type of young talent I would think this team would be wanting to grow with, and to be honest this is probably the last straw from my end. I'm hoping for some serious organizational change given the total system failure that has been the 2016 Minnesota Twins. They looked so promising this spring. I figured we might see a few prospects traded off in order to fill holes if the team really progressed further, unfortunately regression means the team is stock piling prospects yet again.
     
    The last few years I've tried to put together a top prospects list. It's a fun exercise and each of the last few years I've added to it, as I'm tracking more and more guys. I don't have a set of rules as to what constitutes a guy remaining a prospect or not. I try and balance upside with production, with higher levels meaning more. A lower ceiling guy in AAA who is getting results will tend to be a bit higher on my lists than on some, though at the end of the day, it's really just a gut feeling, as I haven't seen many of these guys play. I'm doing it a bit later after watching one of my higher rated prospects get traded with the hopes that the team adds a few more decent options by the 31st (note this line was written earlier in July; and sadly, I remain skeptical of that, but hopeful non-the-less).
     
    Also of note, I tend to rate performance a bit higher. Perhaps that is scouting stat lines a bit, and generally there's something to be said about why that doesn't work, but if a guy is performing well in the high minors, he's going to get a boost. I'll admit that much of this is subjective, and it is certainly worth discussing as balancing ceiling with performance can be very difficult to do, but I'll bump a guy like Luis Arraez who is performing quite well in Cedar Rapids over Alex Kirilloff, who has done well at Elizabethon, but has virtually nothing to go on, as both have high ceilings and Arraez is doing what he does at a higher level.
     
    Six players on my list from last year are no longer in consideration this year due to graduations or no longer with the team.
     
    Graduated:
     
    Miguel Sano 3B (#1 last year) - he was close last year, and while he hasn't exactly wowed the word in his Sophomore year, he still has been a decent bat. The RF thing, I hope, is put to bed permanently, though I'm not ready to see him as a full time DH just yet.
     
    Byron Buxton CF (2) - This is a bit tougher as I'd have probably left him in AAA to start. We'd have had a stop gap CF, even if that was just a Ryan Sweeney type, but he'd have likely headed north to play center and Buxton would still be on my list. While Buxton has definitely been a better player this time around, I think he'd still have been better off spending more time in AAA, and who knows, that my happen yet. My biggest concern here is poor options management. He got put on the 40 man a season early, which I'm fine with, but as a matter of principle, you don't burn an option that same year. It's a colossally stupid thing to do in my opinion. It is one of the big reasons why Arcia is no longer a Minnesota Twin, and it is why Buxton has only one more option remaining going into 2017. Yeah, Buxton is not Arcia. Then again, Hicks wasn't Gomez either. That is a very poor argument to justify what is really nothing more than impatience. Just because there's a status there that says player X is a good prospect, I just don't think it's wise to burn them foolishly. That is something the Twins have done with Buxton, Berrios, and Arcia. In so doing, it forced them to make decisions far earlier than they needed to.
     
    Max Kepler OF/1B (4) - I think it is clear at this point that Kepler will be in MN for the rest of the season, and given his play, he's likely earned a job in 2017 too. As such, I'm removing him from the list. He is also officially off most of the national publications now too as he has had too many major league at bats. Honestly, he's looked good. There is a lot to like. He strikes me as an .800ish OPS type guy while playing good defense at the corners. That's a pretty valuable commodity, and if the power spike turns out to be real, he could have quite a few seasons over .900 OPS.
     
    Tyler Duffey SP (15) - Duffey was pleasant surprise last year, and while he hasn't been quite as good this year, he's still showing promise. I think he can be a pretty solid #3 (i.e. slightly above league average) and as a starting pitcher, that's a nice thing to have.
     
    Taylor Rogers (18) - Rogers never really had a chance to be a starter, but as a LOOGY Rogers has been very effective in MN this year. He should be able to have a nice career in the pen, working potentially against lefties.
    Not bad here. Three of the five guys listed were top 100 guys by many (or all) accounts depending on the guy.
     
    Only one is underperforming, and a strong case can be made that he was promoted too soon. Duffey, who was never really on anyone's radar, could potentially be a pretty nice piece. While he won't be an ace, he's got mid-rotation potential and if he lives up to it can be traded for something nice when some of the younger pitchers are ready. Rogers is looking good out of the pen.
     
    Traded/not in organization:
     
    Chih-Wei Hu SP (9) - Traded for Jepsen. I apparently was a lot higher on him than the Twins. Then again, he was Tampa's futures game rep, so they apparently liked him too.
     
    Josmil Pinto C (16) - For a team hurting for catching help, I'm surprised he was let go. Yeah, he's not much of a prospect anymore, and would never be good behind the dish defensively, but he could hit and seems to have recovered from his concussion. He's posting an OPS over .800 in the PCL as a 27 year old. That's not terribly impressive by PCL standards, but I'd have certainly given him another shot over some of the guys on the bottom of the 40 man, especially given the organizational needs behind the dish.
     
    Mat Batts SP (26) - retired. Too bad, I liked him.
     
    Now for the fun part. As bad as the season has been, the team still does have a nice collection of talent on hand. I don't think the Twins problem thus far is identifying talent. I do, however, thing they have an issue particularly with the transition of talent. Their pitchers seem to spend too long in the high minors and their hitters don't spend enough time there. None seem to get much of a shot in the majors, which is downright unfortunate. D-mac's study on that a couple of months ago was very enlightening, as such, I'll stick with that assumption. Hopefully we see some real organizational change in that area come this offseason.
     
    1) Jose Berrios SP (3) - Another early add to the 40 man followed promptly by an option that we didn't need to spend. That's what you keep guys like Pat Dean around for if the trial was going to be that short. I don't have a problem adding him to the 40 man. I do have a problem giving him a grand total of 4 starts before sending him down. As bad as the team is, I'd have let Jose just run with it, even if that meant demoting Hughes to the pen earlier. Granted, he wasn't good (15 innings in 4 starts, and a 10.20 ERA will do that). Ranting aside, what to like is that he's 22 and destroying the high minors. Hopefully options won't come into play just yet, but he's got only 2 left now for 2017 and beyond. That said, he hasn't exactly been the usual Berrios this year. The big concern is the spike in his walk rate. He hasn't had a walk rate over 3 since his first year in Cedar Rapids at age 19. He was always noted for his command, and that has clearly failed him this year. Given his track record, I think that improves. His K rate is still down right sexy and even with the high number of walks his WHIP is pretty respectable being right around his minor league career rate. I still think he profiles as possible top of the order pitcher, but his most likely ceiling is a #2 at this point. That's a really good pitcher to have.
     
    2) Tyler Jay (5) SP - The Twins were in an odd spot last year where they drafted with very little that was in the way of clear cut top tier talent. Jay had the upside in that he could be a #1 type pitcher, but he had a small problem of being a reliever in college. The Twins drafted him and turned him into a starter, and so far the results have been pretty good. He pitches in the mid 90s and at least in High A he was able to maintain that velocity well into the later innings. He kept his K rate up around 9 in A ball, and his walk rate was below 3. He just got promoted to AA, not bad for a 22 year old. I would expect him to spend all of 2017 in the minors, but he could potentially end up being an early 40 man add as I could see him forcing his way on to a major league roster. Shoulder problems, however, have crept up this season. That may be due to him being unused to this type of a workload or perhaps something worse. That will need to be followed closely.
     
    3) Jorge Polanco (10) 2B/SS - I was pretty down on him last year, and I may have been wrong. I am not sure his defense is as good as one would like, but perhaps that has to do with my SSS viewing of it. When I saw him this spring he made a couple really bad plays on what should have been routine. That said, we tend to forget just how young he is, in large part because he's been with the organization for what seems like forever. He's 22, the same age as Tyler Jay. He hasn't had much major league experience to date, but he is out of options next season (though for some reason I keep thinking he could be one of those 4 year options guys). If I wanted to trash the CBA for the way options are setup, Polanco is a good example of why. No 23 year old kid should be in an out of options scenario (baring poor options management of course), but that is case with most international free agents who were signed at 16. Setting that aside, he's been respectable in an albeit very limited sample at the major league level (OPS north of .850) over three seasons. His minor league career has not been quite as good, but still respectable (OPS north of .750) and one could say that it was largely dragged down by a bad 2015. He's bounced back in a nice way in AAA this year keeping his OPS over .800 so far into the season. That's pretty good for a middle infielder. He's not Dozier, and I don't know if he'll ever be quite as good as Dozier (though I'd say it is possible), but he should be an above average 2B both offensively and defensively, making it relatively easy to trade Dozier off for some higher ceiling talent.
     
    4) Nick Gordon (11) SS - Nick got off to a pretty nice start and has had a pretty respectable season to date. At 20, he's quite young for high A, and he's posting a pretty respectable offensive OPS in a league known for suppressing power. He does have a decent amount of doubles at this stage, and his K rate is nice. He could definitely walk a bit more, and his BABIP is a tad high, but not unreasonably so. He bulked up this offseason and it has shown in the power numbers, and at 20, we could see some similar spikes yet as well, but even if he can maintain his current production, that would make him an above average SS. AA will be an interesting test, as I'd like to see if there's a bit more power there than in the FSL. His defense at SS is said to be good enough to stick. In all, this is another very good prospect. I'd say his ceiling is an .800 OPS SS playing average or slightly better defense. That's an all star at SS.
     
    5) Stephen Gonsalves (7) SP - After posting video game numbers in the FSL, Gonsalves was given a boost to AA to ply his trade against some tougher competition, and thus far he's risen to the challenge. His Fort Meyer's stats were impressive: 2.33 ERA, 9.05 K/9, 2.74 BB/9, a miniscule 5.98 H/9, and allowed home runs roughly once every 36 innings or so. Bottom line, is that High A hitters couldn't hit Gonsalves. He's seen an uptick in the numbers at AA, but they are still well within the respectable territory with the only real concern is a spike in his walk rate. I suspect that this will go down at some point, as he's likely not able to get away with as much against AA hitters as he could against A ball hitters. Setting that aside though, he's 21 and doing more than holding his own (albeit in a small sample) at AA. Other plusses include being a south paw and being able to throw reasonably hard (my understanding is low to mid 90s). While scouts tend to peg him more as a mid to back of the rotation guy, his results thus far say he can be more than that, especially if he remains good at keeping the ball in the park. I think the upside is top of the rotation, as he misses bats, though his fly/ground ratio indicates that the friendly confines of the FSL might be part of the reason for his success (though to be fair, he has minimized his HRs at every stop). AA should be a good test. Gonsalves will likely open 2017 back in AA with hopefully a promotion to Rochester in mid-2017, though if he continues pitching hot down the stretch, he might find himself in AAA to start.
     
    6) Daniel Palka (unrnk) OF - I have to admit that I was pleasantly surprised to see the Twins get Palka for Herrmann. Herrmann is having a career year in AZ (albeit in somewhat limited usage), and based on his minor league numbers, I don't put much stock into him maintaining it, but the prospect we got back is pretty intriguing in his own right. While Palka strikes out way too much (roughly 33% of his at bats this season), he has undeniable power and can take a walk (roughly 12% of his PAs). Ideally, that walk rate probably needs to rise a bit more and the K rate needs to drop, but Palka seems to maintain contact a bit better than one of his other powerful peers in ABW. I think Palka could potentially be a middle order bat, though the odds of being there are a bit lower. He's probably going to end up being a 6/7 hitter who is still quite capable of putting 30 or so balls over the fence on a year to year basis. Add to it that he's 24 and in AAA and has produced an OPS north of .900 in two levels this year. The real issue here is that there's an obvious log jam. Palka could potentially be a 4th OF/DH and get himself roughly 4-500 at bats at the major league level on this team, but he's blocked by better defenders in Kepler and Rosario as well as a DH that has plenty of options in Park, Vargas, Mauer (who isn't going anywhere). Not to mention the aforementioned Walker remains on the 40 man and very much in the team's long term plans. Given the lack of bench help this team has had over the last few years, that usually means there's a decent power bat on the bench in those situations where you need to pinch hit for someone. That's not a bad option at first, though if all of these guys do well, there may be a potential playing time issue forcing some sort of trade somewhere, and it won't be Mauer.
     
    7) Adalberto Mejia (unrnk) SP - I honestly didn't think that Nunez would have had this type of value in a trade, and as such I expected him to remain a Twin. The Giants on the other hand, were willing to part with some decent value in this trade, and I have to admit that I like the end result. His minor league K rate is respectable for a pitcher (about 7.7/9 IP), and it's being buoyed by what may be a break out of sorts for the 23 year old LHP. Mejia sits in the low 90s with his pitches boasting a 3 pitch mix that puts his ceiling at mid-rotation type value with a very realistic floor as a #5 type starter. He gets by in large part by keeping his walks to a minimum and generally keeping the ball in the park. The PCL hasn't been good for him in that aspect of things, but he's more than 3 years younger than his league while continuing to hold his own. Given his age, he should be in line for a spot in MN should someone be hurt or we finally rid ourselves of guys like Nolasco and Milone.
     
    8) JT Chargois (21) RP - I'm not a fan of ranking relief pitchers this high, but Chargois looks like he will be a back end of the bullpen type guy for a long time, and that does have value, even if it is only 70 innings a season. The Twins have a few guys that have that ceiling, but Chargois has clearly outperformed all of them. I'm as disappointed as everyone else that his first major league cup of coffee lasted all of two thirds of an inning, but I expect him to be up for good once someone from the pen is moved. He dominated AA, and his numbers in AAA are even better. He's 25, but has lost two seasons due to injury, and the Twins have been very aggressive in moving him (probably for this reason) as he started 2015 in the FSL. Hopefully, he gets more than a Tonkin type chance in the majors over the next season or two. He is a far better prospect than Tonkin, and even Tokin has shown that patience with these types of guys is a virtue. My expectation is that he's called up once Abad or Kinzler are traded, and as such I expect him to be graduated from this list come this time next season.
     
    9) Alex Kirilloff (unrnk) LF/RF - I was thrilled when the Twins decided to go young for their 2016 class, drafting 4 prep kids with their first four picks and getting a couple more high ceiling kids later in the draft. Kirilloff is obviously the highest ceiling of the bunch being taken at 15 overall in the first round. He is a corner OF who was drafted for what we can only hope is a middle of the order type bat, and so far he is living up to the hype as he has gotten off to a good start in the Appy league. Time will tell in this case as he will most likely begin the season in Cedar Rapids.
     
    10) Kohl Stewart (8) SP - Stewart keeps sliding down my lists a bit, though in his defense, the guys above him have pretty high ceilings as well. 2016 has been a good year for Stewart as he took big steps forward against much harder competition, and whey guys like Keith Law are pretty happy with how the Twins are dealing with him, then perhaps I'm wrong in ranking him to low. Potential is obviously still there, but Sickles has gone on record thinking his reality is more likely to be back end of the rotation then top. Even with that said, however, there's still a lot to like. He upped his K/9 in FTM by more than 2.5 Ks/9 IP. The walk rate was virtually unchanged, while his hit rate dropped significantly, all while being 21 years old and 2.5 years younger than the league. That's a pretty big jump, and while I think we were hoping for Gonsalves type numbers, Stewart did not have the same baseball background in high school as many of his peers. He has been a bit more hittable in AA and naturally his K rate has dropped there as well, but being 3.7 years younger than his league, I'll give him a pass on that for 2016. It will be interesting to see how he responds in 2017 as he could very well be in line for another mid season call up. He boasts 4 pitches and can hit the mid 90s. Like Gonsalves, he's stingy with the long ball, as he has been his entire career. Unlike Gonsalves, he does a much better job keeping the ball on the ground boasting much better ground to fly ratios. We all wanted to see Kohl take a step forward this year, and he did. If he takes another similar step forward next season, he will force himself back into national attention.
     
    11) Fernando Romero (unrnk) SP - Fort Meyers' fans really got a treat this season if good pitching was something they wanted to see. Five members of their rotation this season sit in my top 15 prospects, and this is likely true with most of the national writers as well. Romero is another one, who as of this writing has yet to give up a long ball this year. Like Stewart, he's done a good job keeping the ball on the ground. After obliterating the MWL in 5 starts, the 21 year old got bumped to Fort Meyers where he pretty much continued on the same pace. The only real number that saw an uptick was his H/9 as the rest of his peripherals are remarkably similar to his MWL statistics. At 2.5 years younger than the league, that's impressive seeing his K/9 rate over 8 while allowing a miniscule number of walks (BB/9 is at roughly 1.6 for the season). The FSL is a pitcher friendly league that tends to suppress power, but the righty has given up a grand total of 2 home runs in his minor league career to date, which has more than 150 innings on record. Given his age, this is another guy with top of the rotation potential and could find himself in AA next year.
     
    12) Felix Jorge (unrnk) SP - Another guy in the Fort Meyer rotation who earned a promotion midseason was Jorge. The 22 year old was pretty good, posting a 7.45 K/9 in high A while doing an excellent job killing worms. While the strike out rate is not quite as sexy as one would like for a guy with a top shelf ceiling, Jorge still boasts a MILB K rate of just under 8 while being younger than his competition pretty much every step of the way. Add to it that he is very stingy with the free passes, averaging 1 per 9 innings in FTM this season and has a minor league career rate at about 2. Bottom line, he gets grounders, doesn't give up walks, keeps the ball in the park, and still collects a decent amount of strike outs. His AA numbers thus far have not been all that impressive, but at 2.7 years younger than his league, this isn't a problem just yet. He will most likely return to AA for 2017 as he has struggled in his first taste of it, but hopefully he will be in line for an AAA promotion come 2018.
     
    13) Mitch Garver (19) C - Garver has come on really strong of late (a .950+ OPS in July will do that) forcing me to rethink him a bit. He was very impressive in CR in his first full season, but really took a step back offensively in year two in high A. However, this recent surge has put his overall offensive numbers in line with his minor league career and if he continues to be hot, then 2015 will likely be the outlier in terms of his production. His age relative to the league is nothing special (he's slightly older than league average), but he does have the benefit of being a decent producing catcher in the high minors for a team that really needs help at catcher. The defensive reviews are somewhat mixed. He has the ability to stick, which is a plus given that his bat will likely outperform his catching peers. He was a finalist to the Johnny Bench award in both 2012 and 2013 (with the 2013 winner being Stuart Turner), so to say he's a defensive slouch would be a bit unfair. Sure, he won't be Molina behind the plate, or even Turner for that matter, but he does have the ability to be a decent defender while providing an above average bat. Garver's ceiling is an above average catcher who can start. I don't know if he will be ready in 2017, though I suspect he will start seeing playing time, and a Garver/Murphy catching combo should eventually be able to upgrade the position.
     
    14) Luis Arraez (24) 2B - Arraez surprised last season by getting off to a hot start in rookie ball, but he was overshadowed by his double play partner Jermaine Palacios. Arraez was still good last year, as a .765 OPS is nice for a 2B, but other than his age relative to the league, it was hardly eye-popping. Both received the call to Cedar Rapids at very young ages, and while Palacios started hot, it has been Arraez who has completely dominated and stolen the show. What is to like here is first that he plays a key up the middle position. He's 19, making him three years younger than league average. Not many kids that young are in the MWL, and Arraez isn't just holding his own, he's playing at a well above average clip while not showing signs of slowing down this season. The kid has kept his OPS over .800 for the entire year and while he hasn't shown a lot of home run power, he has quite a few doubles. He's not a big kid, but at 5'10" and 155 pounds, I have to think he will fill out a bit more. He seems to have a professional approach, and while he does not seem to strike out a ton (just over 10% of his at bats), he doesn't walk a lot either. His numbers are being boosted by a BABIP that is a bit high, so it's possible that they come down, but it is really hard to ignore a 19 year old that is putting up those types of numbers against much older competition.
     
    15) Lamonte Wade (unrnk) CF - The college draftee has rapidly moved up the system, getting a mid-season promotion from low A to high A and continuing to rake at every step of the way. His minor league OPS is just shy of .900 for his career, which as a CF is impressive. Even more so is that even as a college player, he's younger than his league. That type of bat will stick anywhere. While power is not a big component to Wade's game (though he does have some), good professional at bats are, as he has walks more than he strikes out and has done so at pretty much every stop along the way. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up this type of production once he starts facing pitchers with better control. As a ceiling, Wade is likely to have 10-20 HR power to go with a .400 OBP. Getting there will be impressive (and it's probably unrealistic), as that is the type of production we saw from Mauer back when he was good.
     
    16) Lewin Diaz (30) 1B - Diaz was the big name in 2013 as the Twins signed him for 1.4M as a 16 year old. Diaz debuted at age 17 in the DSL putting up pretty good numbers against his competition. His first season in the US rookie leagues did not go quite as well as I'm sure the Twins would have liked, but at age 19, he's been doing all that could be reasonably expected of him in the advanced rookie league. His OPS has been north of .900 as he's hitting home runs and plenty of doubles as well. He's a 1B/DH type, but hopefully he can blossom into a #4 hitter as a major leaguer. Given his play, it's possible he gets a bump to low A yet this year as the rookie league season wraps up.
     
    17) Travis Blankenhorn (27) 3B - The big reason for drafting HS players is due to their upside. The Twins grabbed two in Blankenhorn and Cabbage in their 2015 draft. Cabbage has struggled thus far, but Blankenhorn has shown some promise. To date this season his OPS remains on the north end of .900 while playing 2 years younger than average for the advanced rookie league. To be fair, Etown always seems to have some kids that can really hit for power, and not all of it translates well as a player moves up the ranks, but if Blankenhorn can maintain that pace, he'll be able to consistently hit around 30 HRs at the major league level. Time will tell, as his first real test will be in low A, which he might see yet later this year.
     
    18) Alex Meyer (6) SP - Meyer's drop on this list isn't due to his talent and potential nearly as much as it is due to my concern that his health is going to be a big problem. He started well in AAA, but 17 and 1/3 innings is hardly a large enough sample to prove that he figured things out. His debut in Minnesota this season was certainly not ideal, although that isn't terribly unusual when the call up is injury related, especially for pitchers. That said, since his demotion back to AAA he has not pitched a single inning due to shoulder soreness that has again cropped up on him. Age and options are not going to be his friend as he's no longer young in the prospect world and he can only be optioned in 2017. Perhaps the change in management will give Meyer a shot at a starting job. Given what will likely be a lost season in 2017, that might not be a bad way to approach him. Sigh... I'm just not a fan of giving up a prospect, even one that is likely not going to amount to much, for a team that needs to add them. I don't care if we got rid of Nolasco. A DFA would have accomplished the same thing, and we could have kept Meyer.
     
    18) Lewis Thorpe (14) SP - I really hate dropping him this low. He is one of my favorite prospects, and I still think he has a top of the rotation ceiling. 2015 was lost due to Tommy John. At 19, that isn't the end of the world, but at 20 he still hasn't pitched again in Cedar Rapids as he contracted mono during his recovery. Hopefully he still gets some innings. His line in A ball at age 18 was impressive, especially when you consider that his worst numbers were posted in his first month in Cedar Rapids. The overall walk rate is the only real issue here spiking from a measly 1.23/9 IP in the GCL at age 17 to over 4 in A ball at 18, but even that improved significantly as the season progressed. He also was impressive on the world stage as he represented his home country in the 2013 baseball world cup holding his own against other international players with far more baseball experience. The lefty boasts the ability to hit mid-90s and could be a very nice rotational asset if he can come back from these health setbacks. The good news is that both TJS and Mono are something that someone can recover from. The bad news is what amounts to two lost seasons. Hopefully he still gets to pitch a month or two in CR yet this season and can do so well enough to start in Fort Meyers, as due to the CBA, Thorpe will need to be added to the 40 man roster.
     
    19) Huascar Ynoa (29) SP - Slotting high ceiling guys who are very raw can be very difficult to do. On one end, some of these guys due to draft status (Stewart, Kirilloff for example) get slotted high regardless of initial performance, in large part due to said status. Ynoa was a international sign for 800k. That's not a huge bonus, but it isn't chump change either, and the Twins at the moment appear to have gotten a good one. He just turned 18 in May, so he's young, and was pretty good in the DSL last season and seems to have gotten better this season in the GCL, dramatically upping his K rate while dropping his walk rate. He also has had the luxury of (as of this writing) allowing only 1 HR in his two professional seasons. Granted, we aren't talking about a ton of innings at this point, but that is still impressive, and his GCL numbers indicate top of the rotation type potential. He's also doing this at more than 2.5 years younger than the league. If this continues, he will be a candidate for a big bump come next year.
     
    20) Adam Brett Walker (13) RF - I like Walker's ceiling, but other than a hot month this season, I'm not seeing a lot to justify the higher rankings here. Walker is without question a high ceiling prospect, but the strikeouts are a big issue and have gotten worse (over 40% of his at bats end in this capacity) and his K/BB rate is actually worse than his career in a season where his slash line is remarkably similar to his MILB career line. Walker's ceiling is a middle of the lineup guy that can pop 40+ HRs in a season. His floor, even in AAA is a guy who never gets more than a cup of coffee because of the boom or bust nature of his game. Major league pitching will eat him alive if he doesn't fix his issues with Ks. The question that is begged is whether or not he can fix that without sapping that impressive power. His defense won't give him many options at the majors, so his future might be that late inning PH type guy you need when you need a HR.
     
    My thoughts after the first twenty prospects is that despite the fact that this team's farm system is not as strong as it once was, there is still plenty of top shelf potential in the system, particularly around pitching. While one can say with certainty that many of these guys won't hit that potential, a few may. If they do, it will mean some good things for the Twins going forward. There are nine starting pitchers in this group, most of whom have top of the rotation upside. There are three middle infielders as well to go with a catcher and a center fielder. Given that those positions are the hardest to fill, that alone is encouraging.
     
    21) Mason Melotakis (unrnk) RP - Melotakis was a bit of a surprise 40 man roster addition this offseason given that he missed all of 2015 to injury. However, he looked pretty good in spring training and has pitched remarkably well this season in AA given the amount of time he has not been on a roster. His WHIP is a bit high for what one would like in a shut down reliever, but he gets the strike outs. He is a bit older than his league, but he did spend time in AA two years ago (and put up better numbers). I'm willing to argue that in his case he's still recovering a bit and that you might see a nice jump next year if he's still in the minors. That is probably a big if as Melotakis would be a candidate for next year's pen and could potentially still get a call this year if the Twins end up moving a couple of relievers. I'd argue on potential that he's a back of the pen option, though he really needs to remain healthy.
     
    22) Wander Javier (17) SS - Javier has the luxury of being the Twins largest international signing contract in team history, eclipsing some guy named Miguel Sano by about $900k. He's a shortstop that could potentially be average to above in all aspects of his game, making his ceiling a major league star. His DSL season appears to have been cut short due to injury, but not without the 17 year old posting some pretty impressive numbers (OPS north of 1 with a pretty respectable K/BB rate) in what has unfortunately been a very small sample (30 plate appearances).
     
    23) Zach Granite (unrnk) CF - Granite lit up Cedar Rapids last season at an age that was league average though his second half promotion to Fort Meyer did not go quite as well. Surprisingly, the Twins bumped the center fielder up to AA this season. Granite responded in kind posting very respectable numbers while being roughly 1.6 years younger than the league. He takes a very professional plate approach striking out and walking at roughly a 10% clip. He is more of a contact hitter than a power hitter, but he should have a reasonably high OBP as a major leaguer making him a valuable contributor. With Buxton at the ML level, I suspect that a guy like Granite will likely find himself establishing his career somewhere else, as there may not be room for him at the major league level by the time he's ready.
     
    24) Trevor Hildenberger (unrnk) RP - I got to meet Trevor this spring. He's a nice kid, so perhaps I'm a bit biased here. He was an honorable mention on my list last year, and his continued performance at a higher level warrants putting him on the list this year. He's been outstanding as the closer in Chattanooga this season, posting video game numbers for the Look Outs. He's averaging right around 5 hits per 9, while striking out more than double that. He has good control and hasn't issued much in the way of walks, and he keeps the ball in the park. He is slightly older than his league average (roughly 4 months), but that tends to happen with college draftees. The fact that he was a 22nd round pick is even more impressive. I'm not sure what his pitch mix is, but this is another guy whose results command attention even though he isn't known for being a hard thrower. I'm hoping he's moved to AAA to replace Chargois when JT gets the call, with his first shot at MLB in 2017.
     
    25) Amaurys Minier 3B/1B- Minier has been an interesting prospect to watch. He struggled in his first taste of the GCL and destroyed it in his second. He struggled at first time in the Appy and has been much better this time around. He has done all of this while being young for his league, though presently the 20 year old is only 1 year younger than his peers in the Appy league. He has a high ceiling, as he's a power hitter whose minor league career thus far has an OBP nearly 100 points higher than his BA, but he's struggled a bit when he puts the ball in play. This season he's dropped his K rate while upping his walk rate quite nicely, which bodes well for him if he can maintain that type of plate discipline. The ceiling here is pretty high for him as he's a potential middle of the order bat. I don't know much about his defense, but given that he's already slotted primarily in the corners, I'm going to work on the assumption that this is not something that will be a big part of his game. Next season will be a good test for him as he will likely begin in full season ball. His biggest concern presently is improving that contact rate.
     
    26) Travis Harrison (12) 3B/LF - Harrison has unfortunately not developed as one would hope. While he has posted respectable numbers at every stop while being young for his league, he has never really put it all together other than showing a few flashes of what is possible for short periods of time. The potential for him to be a useful major leaguer is still there, especially with him posting a minor league career OPS at .750, but his numbers repeating AA have been less than stellar. He could be a late bloomer in the mold of guys like Span or Plouffe. It certainly isn't worth writing him off, but at this point the clock is ticking and if he wants to see something other than a cup of coffee, he's going to need to figure something out.
     
    27) AJ Murray (unrnk) C - Murray was another later round college pick that has so far done everything that could be asked of him. While his overall numbers in CR this season didn't seem to match up with where I expected, he has posted some pretty respectable numbers. He won't hit for a ton of power, but could be reasonably expected to hit 10-20 HRs over the course of a season. He has a good plate approach, and he is not afraid to take a walk. He was promoted to Fort Meyer midseason and has seen a bit of a drop in his numbers. His BA and SLG in particular seemed to have been hit hardest, though the FSL is known for sapping power. To an extent, this is not too concerning just yet. He may likely start the season again in Fort Meyer and potentially see a mid season promotion to AA.
     
    28) Jermain Palacios (22) 3B - Another high ceiling guy in the minors who absolutely destroyed rookie ball as an 18 year old posting an OPS over .900 between both levels of rookie ball. He looked to be doing the same this season during his age 19 season in low A and got off to a hot start, but then cooled considerably and was eventually shut down for injury. Power is another big question mark, but given his age, that can certainly develop. My guess is he starts the year again in low A. With a decent start, he will find himself promoted around his 20th birthday.
     
    29) Jake Reed (unrnk) RP - Reed got off to a poor start to begin the season, but overall, he seems to have recovered in his repeat of AA. He's upped his K rate while lowering his walk rate by a pretty decent margin. Reed is another option that could potentially be a back of the pen member for the Twins, and while his overall AA numbers won't be quite as sexy as some of his peers, I suspect he starts the year in AAA.
     
    30) Victor Tademo (unrnk) 2B - I wouldn't normally put a DSL kid on the list, especially when he wasn't publicized with all world talent and a big bonus, but the kid has been pretty impressive in the DSL this season as a 16 year old, who is much younger than his league. He turned 17 on July 9th, so he's likely to start in the GCL next year at 17, which is impressive. Also impressive is his plate discipline, as his walk and strikeout numbers are nearly identical and he has hit a fair amount of doubles as well, giving him an OPS comfortably north of .800. It will be interesting to see how his power develops. He certainly has the frame for it being listed at 6'1" already. While it is too soon to tell, he potentially has a high ceiling and could find himself rapidly ascending these lists with a similar year in the GCL next season.
    ___________
    Honorable Mentions:
    Nick Burdi (20), Brandon Peterson (25), Ben Rortvedt, Randy Rosario, Sam Clay, Sam Gibbons, Miguel Gonzalez, Max Murphy, Jaylin Davis, Trey Cabbage, Aaron Sleegers
     
    In all, the farm system is still fairly impressive, and that is even with what will likely amount to graduations of several of the top 10 by this time next season. Ceiling wise, there is plenty to be excited about as a number of guys on this list could find themselves getting national attention with strong 2017 campaigns. Their system is currently lacking the superstar top talent ceiling, though they've graduated several such players in Kepler, Buxton, and Sano, so it isn't as though the major league team is lacking in that respect, but plenty of guys performing in the high minors could have all star type seasons at some point in their career. 2016 has been a less than enjoyable season, but there is still reason for hope.
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